20 years of preferred PM

Written By: - Date published: 12:12 pm, July 27th, 2015 - 68 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: ,

From the wonks at Colmar Brunton:

preferred-pm-1b

preferred-pm-2b

Bonus graph from Danyl Mclauchlan:

tracking-poll-2015

68 comments on “20 years of preferred PM ”

  1. James 1

    Littles trend is sharp and heading in the wrong direction. (well, for a lot of readers here) – Personally I think he has a way to fall yet.

    How long is this going to be sustainable? Will be interesting to watch the gap between him and Peters – if it grows and Peters gets (say) 5% points on him it will be very interesting.

    Wonder how long Labour are willing to let this current experiment drag on.

    • You do realize that the preferred PM poll is meaningless, doncha? We don’t have a presidential election, so, meh. The really interesting result du jour is National losing their lead in last night’s poll. Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*

      *He doesn’t have the guts.

      • lprent 1.1.1

        That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.

        The most extreme example of that was the really low preference for Helen Clark back in 1993 to 1997.

        I am aware that some of the more stupid or space constrained of our political commentators prefer to think/present otherwise.

        But that is more an artifact of the process of trying to fit a media message into a confined space. It has little to do with reality.

        • dukeofurl 1.1.1.1

          The ‘preferred PM’ was brought in to make Muldoon look good ( his negatives were very high).

          Most other countries do an approval rating for each politician as the major result- which is the best measure as normally each major politician is doing a different job)

        • rational thinker 1.1.1.2

          If all people that voted had a high degree of intellect iprent then I would agree but there are a lot of superficial people at the polling booths.

          I think to a lot of people the brand of the leader is very important to their perception of the party. Hence team key.

          Someone talk john Campbell into throwing his hat in the ring or someone else with the same credibility and I think labour would take a sharp rise in the polls.

          like I said last night if Ritchie Mcaw was to run for the chch electorate without any policies I bet he would still win

        • lurgee 1.1.1.3

          “That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.”

          I’d say there is a bit of a correlation and if so we shouldn’t try to pretend there isn’t.

          To me it looks like the opposition leader has to be in touch – Clark was behind, but not far behind in 1999, Brash was closing the gap in 2005, Key-Clark was close before 2008. People are going to be reluctant to give party votes to a party led by someone they think is a doofus.

          Whereas the current and last three Labour leaders have been massively behind, and this has correlated with the party. Obviously, patience is needed. There’s plenty of time before the next election. Brash was massively behind for most of his tenure but finished strongly.

          What is Labour going to do to start people thinking they wouldn’t mind seeing Andrew Little as PM?

          • Kevin 1.1.1.3.1

            A bit of a correlation? Even if you couldn’t remember who won you could predict who won each election by looking at the preferred PM charts.

          • lprent 1.1.1.3.2

            Coming into the election, well there have only been two flips since 1996 so the number of useful data points is pretty damn low.

            But more two years out from an election? Because that is the obvious correlation to now.

            Look at 1997 – Helen was still way way behind.
            Or Brash in 2003 when he was in nowheresville
            Or Key in 2006 when he was in the same position

            Besides, that is always the two way race idea. Since 1993 there has not been a party that has gained over 50% of the parliamentary seats. They are coalitions, and the balance has been extraordinarily tight between ‘left’ and ‘right’ (complicated by the wannbe centrist parties – eg 2005).

            The coalitions that happened in 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014 were literally perched on knife-edge of just a few seats for a majority. That was despite a massive variance between the leader preferences.

            That is why I take little notice of it and never had. It is too variable to provide any kind of useful correlation during the years leading to elections. It also provides little correlation to seats earned by parties.

      • Enough is Enough 1.1.2

        Yes and No

        I think the only reason the Nats have stayed popular is because of their leader. People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.

        You remove Key, you remove National.

        • mpledger 1.1.2.1

          I agree totally.

        • esoteric pineapples 1.1.2.2

          Likewise Winston Peters pulls up New Zealand First.

          • Reality 1.1.2.2.1

            Winston Peters has been in politics for years and years, and always manages to get a headline, so has much more name recognition than Andrew Little, who is still becoming known to people who don’t follow politics constantly. Andrew Little is not a show pony type of person and happily does not try to be one. Thank goodness.

        • Hanswurst 1.1.2.3

          People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.

          As opposed to Key, of course, who is a dickwad and a crook. Oh, and a lightweight.

        • Preferred PM is meaningful to the Government only. The opposition doing badly is meaningless, but them doing well is trouble.

          The left rallying and getting their act together is really all that’s needed to win. There is SO MUCH ammunition to use to make Key unpopular that once there’s a legitimate alternative government, it won’t be hard to bring him down anyway.

          • Lanthanide 1.1.2.4.1

            +1

            Fully agree with this. Labour could have had a chance in the 2014 election, but they blew it with stupid infighting and posturing.

      • alwyn 1.1.3

        ” Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*”
        You are right TRP.
        He should follow Helen’s example in 2006, when the wheels fell off the Labour Party support.
        She had the courage to call a snap election then didn’t she?

        • the pigman 1.1.3.1

          Your powers of spotting and illustrating analogies are woefully deficient, my elderly friend. Did you totally miss TRP’s point?

          Recently one leader of a major party was full of bravado in the House, screaming at the other major party leader hysterically to to “ge[t]sum gu[t]ss’!!!11!!1!”

          I’ll give you a clue: it wasn’t Helen Clark speaking to Don Brash.

    • Ovid 1.2

      I’m not prepared to support another leadership contest this side of the next general election. It would scupper any hopes at all of a change of government and I don’t see how it would take place without a groundswell of discontent from the wider party and its affiliates and while there’s the normal grumbling from activists who as always would like the party to be a little more left than it is, I don’t see the appetite for such a move.

      The right is, of course, trying to foster this as it would prevent Labour getting on an even keel before 2017.

      • Clemgeopin 1.2.1

        +1

        I say, keep calm and carry on.
        Ignore the distractions, the fools and the crooks.

        • Colonial Viper 1.2.1.1

          Its important we give Little 6 months to get the numbers up

          • Ben 1.2.1.1.1

            Isn’t that what people were saying in Nov 2014? The good people of New Plymouth have rejected him twice, so no surprises that the rest of the country follows suit.

            • Hanswurst 1.2.1.1.1.1

              Isn’t that what people were saying in Nov 2014?

              No. It might possibly be what *someone* was saying in Nov 2014, but that’s different.

              The good people of New Plymouth have rejected him twice, so no surprises that the rest of the country follows suit.

              The country hasn’t “rejected” Little. What has happened is that a large number of people have voted for John Key in a meaningless preferred PM poll.

        • Matthew Hooton 1.2.1.2

          Absolutely. Important to keep Little in the job or else Labour will look unstable.

          • Kevin 1.2.1.2.1

            Except Labour won’t win while Little is leader. Better to dump him and find someone else and keep repeating the process until they find someone who can lead them to victory.

      • KK 1.2.2

        Preferred PM is a stupid measure. Favourability is the measure that actually means something. I don’t know why anyone pays attention to it.

  2. Clean_power 2

    Is Mr Little on a slippery slope? His numbers do not support Labour’s cause.

    • Puckish Rogue 2.1

      Mr Andrew Little is merely biding his time and rallying his troops, like a finely tuned athelete he doesn’t want to peak too soon and will be in a position of strength come the election while Winston Peters will have done his dash by then

    • maui 2.2

      A 4th leader in 2 years is the answer…

  3. Sabine 3

    I actually find the drop in Keys numbers more important – isn’t he the superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?

    Little has had the job of maybe PM for Labour for a few month, he is being rubbished any single time people on the left and right get a chance simply for being i guess the Labour Candidate etc etc etc.
    So no i don’t give much about this poll…..really, early days.

    As for Winston, he has been doing good work lately and i guess there are some National voters that actually would vote for him rather then someone else in the National Party should dear Leader decide it is time to retire.

    Labour should just stick with what they are doing at the moment. I can see how the press and certain parts of the so called Intelligentsia in NZ would hope for another leadership contest…but i hope they won’t fall for that.

    • lprent 3.1

      …superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?

      With the levels of business confidence around at present? They have been heading for the toilet over the last year because there is nothing except storms on the horizon.

      • NZJester 3.1.1

        I wish it was storms on the horizon, but instead all I see coming this next summer is a long hot dry spell. Not only for our crops, but also for the cash-flow of our businesses.

  4. Clemgeopin 4

    I am not sure how the preferred PM question works. Something seems strange or meaningless here. I would like to see someone explain this.
    ———–
    I am perplexed by the disconnect in the numbers.

    What I wonder about is how can Key have only 38% preference as PM when his own party support is 47%? Similarly for Little, 10% vs 31%, or for Peters 8% vs 11% ?

    One would expect, for example, most of a particular party supporters to be supporting their own leader as preferred PM. The numbers don’t show that.
    ————
    I also think that the preferred PM question itself is a silly one because, there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.

    Instead, it would be more sensible to word the question something like this:
    “If the political party you support were to lead the government, who among that party would you prefer to be the PM?”
    ————

    • James 4.1

      “there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.”

      No – Labour are well behind on party votes, and have little (no pun intended) chance of having the most party votes next election. But like in the last hiding (election) they hold to the dream that they can cobble enough votes along with the greens, mana, bob the builder, the bus drivers mother and with a wing and a prayer Winston first, then they get to have the ONE PM.

      • Clemgeopin 4.1.1

        James, you did not seem to have understood the questions in my comment at all.
        It wasn’t about Mr Little.

    • Might be comparing apples with oranges.

      Undecided voters are commonly left out of the reporting of party preferences, I guess it’s assumed they are non-voters (rather than Labour voters who are sick of Labour’s ongoing incompetence, or National voters who are sick of Nationals ongoing corruption and incompetence – or maybe they are just ditherers, who knows?).

      We might see no change at all in the polls as they are reported, even if a major change in the proportion of undecideds happened; (say that undecideds went from 20% to 30% of people polled over the course of a month).

      It doesn’t make this type of reporting of poll results less than useless, but care needs to be made when comparing different subsets pulled from the larger pool of information.

      So, are the preferred PM preferences taken only from the pool of decided voters?
      Or do those who are undecided partywise contribute toward the preferred PM?

    • You are incorrect.

      The PM does not come from the party with the most votes.

      It comes from the party able to form a government (even then, not sure that’s a requirement)

    • Karen 4.4

      According to their website Colmar Brunton ask about preferred Prime Minister this way:

      “Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
      IF NONE
      “Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”

      In the last poll there were 12% don’t know or refused for the party vote question. They don’t say on the website but I suspect there are a lot more don’t knows or none for preferred PM. I also think any current PM has an advantage outside of election year.

      Little always said he’d spend a year going around the regions talking to people and didn’t expect a jump in the polls during that time. However, I personally don’t think he has been performing very well since just before the Budget, and a lot more needs to be done to boost his media presence (including improving his radio voice). I think he has done well with the caucus who seem to be more united.

    • Anne 4.5

      Some people name the first person who comes into their head. That is invariably the PM of the day.

  5. Colonial Viper 5

    The more Little sounds like template stage managed sanitised Labour, and the less he sounds like Cut the Crap authentic Little, the lower his numbers will sink.

    • Clemgeopin 5.1

      You are wrong. It would be stupid to be always angry. One may win a few activists and fellow travelers, but not the vast voting public. They need assurance, honesty and helpful policies.

      Confucius says chamomile might do you some good in seeing things through a little more clearly about Little and Labour than you have been hastily doing in the recent past.

      Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.1

        Didn’t say a thing about being angry all the time. But OK if you think that Little is better off with his vetted and prepared remarks let’s see how his numbers go over the next 6 months.

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.2

        Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?

        More people are more motivated by what they believe a party stands for, rather than by any singular personality attached to that party.

        • McFlock 5.1.2.1

          I strongly believe that that depends on the party and the personality.

        • Clemgeopin 5.1.2.2

          There are still 2, (yes, TWO), years to go and policies that are good for the country and the people are being worked out. Remember the party policies and ethos are being reviewed and overhauled after the election defeat. Be patient. In the meantime, put your energy into the dodgy dealings of the present crooked government. And oh, stop putting down Labour like a heat seeking Gaboon Viper going after its quary.

          http://rmkp2gaboonviper.weebly.com/physical-characteristics.html

  6. Ad 6

    Can someone layer “mood of the nation” over “preferred party”?

    Be useful to see if there’s a clear precursor effect – and when they shear away.

  7. Observer (Tokoroa) 7

    Skinny made a good point in another post today, when he invited Little to “..relax and smile, point and wave”.

    Key and Peters do that. Popular people smile.

    However, all of the New Zealand media is pro – National. That is a huge bias in base support for Key. Even when as an addicted weirdo, he is tugging the hair of targeted women and young girls.

    They still support him,Even when he is cooking the books in favour of his beloved Casino, the high rollers and the associated low brothels.

    Even when his closest friends include the grovelling and dark minded Cameron Slater.

    The media supports him Even when he is constantly crapping on, lying like the cheat he is.

    Labour, NZ First and the Greens need to combine now and put up together, hoardings saying ” the lying Key must go” or the like.

    Also they must form “NZ Honest Media Group” and build it up.

    • ropata 7.1

      Don’t worry, the Gnats are shooting themselves in the foot at the moment, all the opposition parties need to do is get out of the way and let the media finally grab hold of these stories.

      Labour is working on rehabilitating its image right now and positioning itself for Government. The Labour/Green parties have their own visions to communicate to NZ, rolling in the muck with the dirty Gnats gets counterproductive after a while.

  8. It a stupid question to ask ,because most of the people asked would only know one PM .Who ever is the presnt PM. A look at past polls will confirm this . anyway how often have the polls beeen correct?. An interesting question to ask people is “did they vote for Muldoon ? Not many will say they did yet that scary man kept on winning .

  9. James 9

    There are some (and a lot on this forum) – who will only vote Labour / Greens / Mana regardless of who is leading them.

    BUT – It is a good question when polling because – a lot of people actually think – who do I want to be PM when they are casting their vote.

    Thats why you get ACT in Epsom for example.

    If anyone thinks that being the 3rd most preferred PM and being almost 30% behind them ISNT a bad thing (assuming you wanted the guy to win), then, well, you deserve to be laughed at.

    • McFlock 9.1

      Thanks for confirming that ol’ tugger is the only reason national gets elected.

      • James 9.1.1

        Mc Flock – Adding to reasonable conversation since ages ago / sarc.

        Upshot – I believe the person who I want as PM matters to me and dictates my voting on the day.

        Same as many on the left. Its a simple concept – but in this crazy MMP world you have to think like this.

        Could be a problem for Winny tho’ Angry Andrew keeps dropping away – With Winston looked at as the best leader for the opposition for people – they might force him to show his cards his coalition partners before the election.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          Upshot – I believe the person who I want as PM matters to me and dictates my voting on the day.

          Always figured you as a personalities before principles kind of voter.

          • James 9.1.1.1.1

            Obviously – Their personality comes into it – but I choose on who I think will lead the country in the direction that I want to go.

            In the National leader was someone who I didnt like – But I thought that they would do the best job – I would still vote for them.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1.1.1.1.1

              No-one cares what you say you’d do: your word isn’t worth shit.

        • Karen 9.1.1.2

          Governments are made up of MPs who are aligned to political parties and this was the case before ‘crazy’ MMP. PMs do not have the power to do anything without caucus support.

          Perhaps you think the PM is all important, but do not assume other people think this as I doubt it is true. Possibly some people are put off a party because they loathe the leader, but very few would see a particular leader as the main reason for voting for a party.

        • McFlock 9.1.1.3

          You do realise there’s more to a government than prime minister, right?

          And yet that is the factor that “dictates” your vote 🙄

          • James 9.1.1.3.1

            I do understand this. But if labour choose to ignore it – they will be trying to get elected a government who has a guy (who the way he is going) will be in single digit preferred Prime minister figures – against someone who is iro 40%.

            If you dont think that this will make it harder for labour …. well mate … your dreaming.

            • rational thinker 9.1.1.3.1.1

              James
              +1

            • McFlock 9.1.1.3.1.2

              Chart sez Little going down a little since the 2014 election, but Labour going up.

              Doesn’t seem to be much of a relationship at all. Good luck with your hero-worship.

  10. North 10

    Preferred PM generally follows the incumbent, more or less, so there’s a measure of inevitability there. What’s interesting is that The Ponce Key, not that long ago pushing 60% as the incumbent (and didn’t we all hear and hear and hear about that ?) is now at 40%, as the incumbent. Mmmm……the manifestations of simpering vanity, interspersed with faux rugby boy “GehSarmGuss” shit, won’t have missed that.

    • dukeofurl 10.1

      More interesting is Keys rating peaked at just before 2011 election and was on a slow slide downhill, then something happened in 2013 where it plateaued and then moved back to a higher level.

      What was it in around 2013 that boosted Key ? Not the Christchurch quakes as they were earlier in 2011.
      Key is now back down to the trough he had at end of 2012 ( low 40%).

      Will he be doing some more of his special sauce to bump it up again ?

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  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Road rage at Kia Kaha Primary School
    It is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha Primary School!It can be any time when you are telling a story.Telling stories about things that happened in the past is how we learn from our mistakes.If we want to.Anyway, it is not the school holidays yet at Kia Kaha ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Hipkins fires up in leaders’ debate, but has the curtain already fallen on the Labour-led coalitio...
    Labour’s  Chris Hipkins came out firing, in the  leaders’ debate  on Newshub’s evening programme, and most of  the pundits  rated  him the winner against National’s  Christopher Luxon. But will this make any difference when New  Zealanders  start casting their ballots? The problem  for  Hipkins is  that  voters are  all too ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    3 days ago
  • Govt is energising housing projects with solar power – and fuelling the public’s concept of a di...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Not long after Point of Order published data which show the substantial number of New Zealanders (77%) who believe NZ is becoming more divided, government ministers were braying about a programme which distributes some money to “the public” and some to “Maori”. The ministers were dishing ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • MIKE GRIMSHAW: Election 2023 – a totemic & charisma failure?
    The D&W analysis Michael Grimshaw writes –  Given the apathy, disengagement, disillusionment, and all-round ennui of this year’s general election, it was considered time to bring in those noted political operatives and spin doctors D&W, the long-established consultancy firm run by Emile Durkheim and Max Weber. Known for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • FROM BFD: Will Winston be the spectre we think?
    Kissy kissy. Cartoon credit BoomSlang. The BFD. JC writes-  Allow me to preface this contribution with the following statement: If I were asked to express a preference between a National/ACT coalition or a National/ACT/NZF coalition then it would be the former. This week Luxon declared his position, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • California’s climate disclosure bill could have a huge impact across the U.S.
    This re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Andy Furillo was originally published by Capital & Main and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. The California Legislature took a step last week that has the potential to accelerate the fight against climate ...
    3 days ago
  • Untangling South East Queensland’s Public Transport
    This is a cross post Adventures in Transitland by Darren Davis. I recently visited Brisbane and South East Queensland and came away both impressed while also pondering some key changes to make public transport even better in the region. Here goes with my take on things. A bit of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    3 days ago
  • Try A Little Kindness.
    My daughter arrived home from the supermarket yesterday and she seemed a bit worried about something. It turned out she wanted to know if someone could get her bank number from a receipt.We wound the story back.She was in the store and there was a man there who was distressed, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • What makes NZFirst tick
    New Zealand’s longest-running political roadshow rolled into Opotiki yesterday, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters knowing another poll last night showed he would make it back to Parliament and National would need him and his party if they wanted to form a government. The Newshub Reid Research poll ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • September AMA
    Hi,As September draws to a close — I feel it’s probably time to do an Ask Me Anything. You know how it goes: If you have any burning questions, fire away in the comments and I will do my best to answer. You might have questions about Webworm, or podcast ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • Bludgers lying in the scratcher making fools of us all
    The mediocrity who stands to be a Prime Minister has a litany.He uses it a bit like a Koru Lounge card. He will brandish it to say: these people are eligible. And more than that, too: These people are deserving. They have earned this policy.They have a right to this policy. What ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • More “partnerships” (by the look of it) and redress of over $30 million in Treaty settlement wit...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point of Order has waited until now – 3.45pm – for today’s officially posted government announcements.  There have been none. The only addition to the news on the Beehive’s website was posted later yesterday, after we had published our September 26 Buzz report. It came from ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • ALEX HOLLAND: Labour’s spending
    Alex Holland writes –  In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, New Zealand’s government debt ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • If not now, then when?
    Labour released its fiscal plan today, promising the same old, same old: "responsibility", balanced books, and of course no new taxes: "Labour will maintain income tax settings to provide consistency and certainty in these volatile times. Now is not the time for additional taxes or to promise billions of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • THE FACTS:  77% of Kiwis believe NZ is becoming more divided
    The Facts has posted –        KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealander’s polled: Social unity/division 77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% ‘much more’ + 35% ‘a little more’) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% ‘much less’ + 2% ‘a little less’) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the cynical brutality of the centre-right’s welfare policies
    The centre-right’s enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
    4 days ago
  • Wednesday’s Chorus: Arthur Grimes on why building many, many more social houses is so critical
    New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Old habits
    Media awareness about global warming and climate change has grown fairly steadily since 2004. My impression is that journalists today tend to possess a higher climate literacy than before. This increasing awareness and improved knowledge is encouraging, but there are also some common interpretations which could be more nuanced. ...
    Real ClimateBy rasmus
    4 days ago
  • Bennie Bashing.
    If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The kindest cuts
    Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Green right turn in Britain? Well, a start
    While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealand’s general election, Britain’s PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. He’s announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative government’s approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    5 days ago
  • At a glance – How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    5 days ago
  • How could this happen?
    Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
    5 days ago
  • Always Be Campaigning
    The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • STEPHEN FRANKS: Press seek to publicly shame doctor – we must push back
    The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I don’t like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Competing on cruelty
    The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Further funding for Pharmac (forgotten in the Budget?) looks like a $1bn appeal from a PM in need of...
    Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan  – for 3000 more public homes by 2025 – is the most recent to be posted on the government’s official website. Another – a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: The Vested interests shaping National Party policies
    As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago
  • Labour may be on way out of power and NZ First back in – but will Peters go into coalition with Na...
    Voters  are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris  Hipkins’  valiant  rearguard  action.  So  where  are they  heading?  Clearly  not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that  the  outcome  will be “close”. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a  few weeks  ago  was ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago
  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Will the racists please stand up?
    Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out. Graham Adams writes –    With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice — including in water management, education, planning law and local government — remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on whether Winston Peters can be a moderating influence
    As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. That’s why yesterday’s Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
    5 days ago
  • Tuesday’s Chorus: RBNZ set to rain on National's victory parade
    ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • After a Pittsburgh coal processing plant closed, ER visits plummeted
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
    5 days ago
  • September-23 AT Board Meeting
    Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
    5 days ago
  • Electorate Watch: West Coast-Tasman
    Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Big money brings Winston back
    National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • 20 days until Election Day, 7 until early voting begins… but what changes will we really see here?
    As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    6 days ago
  • A night out
    Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • A pallid shade of Green III
    Clearly Labour's focus groups are telling it that it needs to pay more attention to climate change - because hot on the heels of their weaksauce energy efficiency pilot programme and not-great-but-better-than-nothing solar grants, they've released a full climate manifesto. Unfortunately, the core policies in it - a second Emissions ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A coalition of racism, cruelty, and chaos
    Today's big political news is that after months of wibbling, National's Chris Luxon has finally confirmed that he is willing to work with Winston Peters to become Prime Minister. Which is expected, but I guess it tells us something about which way the polls are going. Which raises the question: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • More migrant workers should help generate the tax income needed to provide benefits for job seekers
    Buzz from the Beehive Under something described as a “rebalance” of its immigration rules, the Government has adopted four of five recommendations made in an independent review released in July, The fifth, which called on the government to specify criteria for out-of-hours compliance visits similar to those used during ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Letter To Luxon.
    Some of you might know Gerard Otto (G), and his G News platform. This morning he wrote a letter to Christopher Luxon which I particularly enjoyed, and with his agreement I’m sharing it with you in this guest newsletter.If you’d like to make a contribution to support Gerard’s work you ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Alarming trend in benefit numbers
    Lindsay Mitchell writes –  While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend. Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON: Has there been external structural change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.   Brian Easton writes –  Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • CRL Progress – Sep-23
    It’s been a while since we looked at the latest with the City Rail Link and there’s been some fantastic milestones recently. To start with, and most recently, CRL have released an awesome video showing a full fly-through of one of the tunnels. Come fly with us! You asked for ...
    6 days ago
  • Monday’s Chorus: Not building nearly enough
    We are heading into another period of fast population growth without matching increased home building or infrastructure investment.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Labour and National detailed their house building and migration approaches over the weekend, with both pledging fast population growth policies without enough house building or infrastructure investment ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Game on; Hipkins comes out punching
    Labour leader Chris Hipkins yesterday took the gloves off and laid into National and its leader Christopher Luxon. For many in Labour – and particularly for some at the top of the caucus and the party — it would not have been a moment too soon. POLITIK is aware ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • Tax Cut Austerity Blues.
    The leaders have had their go, they’ve told us the “what?” and the “why?” of their promises. Now it’s the turn of the would be Finance Ministers to tell us the “how?”, the “how much?”, and the “when?”A chance for those competing for the second most powerful job in the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • MIKE GRIMSHAW:  It’s the economy – and the spirit – Stupid…
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Over the past 30-odd years it’s become almost an orthodoxy to blame or invoke neoliberalism for the failures of New Zealand society. On the left the usual response goes something like, neoliberalism is the cause of everything that’s gone wrong and the answer ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago

  • Safeguarding Tuvalu language and identity
    Tuvalu is in the spotlight this week as communities across New Zealand celebrate Vaiaso o te Gagana Tuvalu – Tuvalu Language Week. “The Government has a proven record of supporting Pacific communities and ensuring more of our languages are spoken, heard and celebrated,” Pacific Peoples Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Many ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori households
    Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilience
    The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solar
    The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
    Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefit
    Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Immigration settings updates
    Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga Hohepa
    Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Renewable energy fund to support community resilience
    40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 funding returned to Government
    The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Appointment of District Court Judge
    Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today.  Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
    The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-up
    Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Taupō Supercars revs up with Government support
    The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarter
    The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs
    The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today.   “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More support for victims of migrant exploitation
    Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Strong export boost as NZ economy turns corner
    An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te Karaka
    The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Further business support for cyclone-affected regions
    The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underway
    Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General Assembly
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Midwives’ pay equity offer reached
    Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand provides support to Morocco
    Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilience
    The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today.  A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government invests in Greymouth’s future
    The Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • PREFU shows no recession, growing economy, more jobs and wages ahead of inflation
    Economy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New cancer centre opens in Christchurch
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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