Littles trend is sharp and heading in the wrong direction. (well, for a lot of readers here) – Personally I think he has a way to fall yet.
How long is this going to be sustainable? Will be interesting to watch the gap between him and Peters – if it grows and Peters gets (say) 5% points on him it will be very interesting.
Wonder how long Labour are willing to let this current experiment drag on.
You do realize that the preferred PM poll is meaningless, doncha? We don’t have a presidential election, so, meh. The really interesting result du jour is National losing their lead in last night’s poll. Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*
The ‘preferred PM’ was brought in to make Muldoon look good ( his negatives were very high).
Most other countries do an approval rating for each politician as the major result- which is the best measure as normally each major politician is doing a different job)
If all people that voted had a high degree of intellect iprent then I would agree but there are a lot of superficial people at the polling booths.
I think to a lot of people the brand of the leader is very important to their perception of the party. Hence team key.
Someone talk john Campbell into throwing his hat in the ring or someone else with the same credibility and I think labour would take a sharp rise in the polls.
like I said last night if Ritchie Mcaw was to run for the chch electorate without any policies I bet he would still win
“That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.”
I’d say there is a bit of a correlation and if so we shouldn’t try to pretend there isn’t.
To me it looks like the opposition leader has to be in touch – Clark was behind, but not far behind in 1999, Brash was closing the gap in 2005, Key-Clark was close before 2008. People are going to be reluctant to give party votes to a party led by someone they think is a doofus.
Whereas the current and last three Labour leaders have been massively behind, and this has correlated with the party. Obviously, patience is needed. There’s plenty of time before the next election. Brash was massively behind for most of his tenure but finished strongly.
What is Labour going to do to start people thinking they wouldn’t mind seeing Andrew Little as PM?
Coming into the election, well there have only been two flips since 1996 so the number of useful data points is pretty damn low.
But more two years out from an election? Because that is the obvious correlation to now.
Look at 1997 – Helen was still way way behind.
Or Brash in 2003 when he was in nowheresville
Or Key in 2006 when he was in the same position
Besides, that is always the two way race idea. Since 1993 there has not been a party that has gained over 50% of the parliamentary seats. They are coalitions, and the balance has been extraordinarily tight between ‘left’ and ‘right’ (complicated by the wannbe centrist parties – eg 2005).
The coalitions that happened in 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014 were literally perched on knife-edge of just a few seats for a majority. That was despite a massive variance between the leader preferences.
That is why I take little notice of it and never had. It is too variable to provide any kind of useful correlation during the years leading to elections. It also provides little correlation to seats earned by parties.
I think the only reason the Nats have stayed popular is because of their leader. People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.
Winston Peters has been in politics for years and years, and always manages to get a headline, so has much more name recognition than Andrew Little, who is still becoming known to people who don’t follow politics constantly. Andrew Little is not a show pony type of person and happily does not try to be one. Thank goodness.
People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.
As opposed to Key, of course, who is a dickwad and a crook. Oh, and a lightweight.
Preferred PM is meaningful to the Government only. The opposition doing badly is meaningless, but them doing well is trouble.
The left rallying and getting their act together is really all that’s needed to win. There is SO MUCH ammunition to use to make Key unpopular that once there’s a legitimate alternative government, it won’t be hard to bring him down anyway.
” Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*”
You are right TRP.
He should follow Helen’s example in 2006, when the wheels fell off the Labour Party support.
She had the courage to call a snap election then didn’t she?
Your powers of spotting and illustrating analogies are woefully deficient, my elderly friend. Did you totally miss TRP’s point?
Recently one leader of a major party was full of bravado in the House, screaming at the other major party leader hysterically to to “ge[t]sum gu[t]ss’!!!11!!1!”
I’ll give you a clue: it wasn’t Helen Clark speaking to Don Brash.
I’m not prepared to support another leadership contest this side of the next general election. It would scupper any hopes at all of a change of government and I don’t see how it would take place without a groundswell of discontent from the wider party and its affiliates and while there’s the normal grumbling from activists who as always would like the party to be a little more left than it is, I don’t see the appetite for such a move.
The right is, of course, trying to foster this as it would prevent Labour getting on an even keel before 2017.
Isn’t that what people were saying in Nov 2014? The good people of New Plymouth have rejected him twice, so no surprises that the rest of the country follows suit.
Except Labour won’t win while Little is leader. Better to dump him and find someone else and keep repeating the process until they find someone who can lead them to victory.
Mr Andrew Little is merely biding his time and rallying his troops, like a finely tuned athelete he doesn’t want to peak too soon and will be in a position of strength come the election while Winston Peters will have done his dash by then
I actually find the drop in Keys numbers more important – isn’t he the superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?
Little has had the job of maybe PM for Labour for a few month, he is being rubbished any single time people on the left and right get a chance simply for being i guess the Labour Candidate etc etc etc.
So no i don’t give much about this poll…..really, early days.
As for Winston, he has been doing good work lately and i guess there are some National voters that actually would vote for him rather then someone else in the National Party should dear Leader decide it is time to retire.
Labour should just stick with what they are doing at the moment. I can see how the press and certain parts of the so called Intelligentsia in NZ would hope for another leadership contest…but i hope they won’t fall for that.
…superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?
With the levels of business confidence around at present? They have been heading for the toilet over the last year because there is nothing except storms on the horizon.
I wish it was storms on the horizon, but instead all I see coming this next summer is a long hot dry spell. Not only for our crops, but also for the cash-flow of our businesses.
I am not sure how the preferred PM question works. Something seems strange or meaningless here. I would like to see someone explain this.
———–
I am perplexed by the disconnect in the numbers.
What I wonder about is how can Key have only 38% preference as PM when his own party support is 47%? Similarly for Little, 10% vs 31%, or for Peters 8% vs 11% ?
One would expect, for example, most of a particular party supporters to be supporting their own leader as preferred PM. The numbers don’t show that.
————
I also think that the preferred PM question itself is a silly one because, there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.
Instead, it would be more sensible to word the question something like this:
“If the political party you support were to lead the government, who among that party would you prefer to be the PM?”
————
“there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.”
No – Labour are well behind on party votes, and have little (no pun intended) chance of having the most party votes next election. But like in the last hiding (election) they hold to the dream that they can cobble enough votes along with the greens, mana, bob the builder, the bus drivers mother and with a wing and a prayer Winston first, then they get to have the ONE PM.
Undecided voters are commonly left out of the reporting of party preferences, I guess it’s assumed they are non-voters (rather than Labour voters who are sick of Labour’s ongoing incompetence, or National voters who are sick of Nationals ongoing corruption and incompetence – or maybe they are just ditherers, who knows?).
We might see no change at all in the polls as they are reported, even if a major change in the proportion of undecideds happened; (say that undecideds went from 20% to 30% of people polled over the course of a month).
It doesn’t make this type of reporting of poll results less than useless, but care needs to be made when comparing different subsets pulled from the larger pool of information.
So, are the preferred PM preferences taken only from the pool of decided voters?
Or do those who are undecided partywise contribute toward the preferred PM?
According to their website Colmar Brunton ask about preferred Prime Minister this way:
“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
IF NONE
“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
In the last poll there were 12% don’t know or refused for the party vote question. They don’t say on the website but I suspect there are a lot more don’t knows or none for preferred PM. I also think any current PM has an advantage outside of election year.
Little always said he’d spend a year going around the regions talking to people and didn’t expect a jump in the polls during that time. However, I personally don’t think he has been performing very well since just before the Budget, and a lot more needs to be done to boost his media presence (including improving his radio voice). I think he has done well with the caucus who seem to be more united.
The more Little sounds like template stage managed sanitised Labour, and the less he sounds like Cut the Crap authentic Little, the lower his numbers will sink.
You are wrong. It would be stupid to be always angry. One may win a few activists and fellow travelers, but not the vast voting public. They need assurance, honesty and helpful policies.
Confucius says chamomile might do you some good in seeing things through a little more clearly about Little and Labour than you have been hastily doing in the recent past.
Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?
Didn’t say a thing about being angry all the time. But OK if you think that Little is better off with his vetted and prepared remarks let’s see how his numbers go over the next 6 months.
Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?
More people are more motivated by what they believe a party stands for, rather than by any singular personality attached to that party.
There are still 2, (yes, TWO), years to go and policies that are good for the country and the people are being worked out. Remember the party policies and ethos are being reviewed and overhauled after the election defeat. Be patient. In the meantime, put your energy into the dodgy dealings of the present crooked government. And oh, stop putting down Labour like a heat seeking Gaboon Viper going after its quary.
Skinny made a good point in another post today, when he invited Little to “..relax and smile, point and wave”.
Key and Peters do that. Popular people smile.
However, all of the New Zealand media is pro – National. That is a huge bias in base support for Key. Even when as an addicted weirdo, he is tugging the hair of targeted women and young girls.
They still support him,Even when he is cooking the books in favour of his beloved Casino, the high rollers and the associated low brothels.
Even when his closest friends include the grovelling and dark minded Cameron Slater.
The media supports him Even when he is constantly crapping on, lying like the cheat he is.
Labour, NZ First and the Greens need to combine now and put up together, hoardings saying ” the lying Key must go” or the like.
Also they must form “NZ Honest Media Group” and build it up.
Don’t worry, the Gnats are shooting themselves in the foot at the moment, all the opposition parties need to do is get out of the way and let the media finally grab hold of these stories.
Labour is working on rehabilitating its image right now and positioning itself for Government. The Labour/Green parties have their own visions to communicate to NZ, rolling in the muck with the dirty Gnats gets counterproductive after a while.
It a stupid question to ask ,because most of the people asked would only know one PM .Who ever is the presnt PM. A look at past polls will confirm this . anyway how often have the polls beeen correct?. An interesting question to ask people is “did they vote for Muldoon ? Not many will say they did yet that scary man kept on winning .
There are some (and a lot on this forum) – who will only vote Labour / Greens / Mana regardless of who is leading them.
BUT – It is a good question when polling because – a lot of people actually think – who do I want to be PM when they are casting their vote.
Thats why you get ACT in Epsom for example.
If anyone thinks that being the 3rd most preferred PM and being almost 30% behind them ISNT a bad thing (assuming you wanted the guy to win), then, well, you deserve to be laughed at.
Mc Flock – Adding to reasonable conversation since ages ago / sarc.
Upshot – I believe the person who I want as PM matters to me and dictates my voting on the day.
Same as many on the left. Its a simple concept – but in this crazy MMP world you have to think like this.
Could be a problem for Winny tho’ Angry Andrew keeps dropping away – With Winston looked at as the best leader for the opposition for people – they might force him to show his cards his coalition partners before the election.
Governments are made up of MPs who are aligned to political parties and this was the case before ‘crazy’ MMP. PMs do not have the power to do anything without caucus support.
Perhaps you think the PM is all important, but do not assume other people think this as I doubt it is true. Possibly some people are put off a party because they loathe the leader, but very few would see a particular leader as the main reason for voting for a party.
I do understand this. But if labour choose to ignore it – they will be trying to get elected a government who has a guy (who the way he is going) will be in single digit preferred Prime minister figures – against someone who is iro 40%.
If you dont think that this will make it harder for labour …. well mate … your dreaming.
Preferred PM generally follows the incumbent, more or less, so there’s a measure of inevitability there. What’s interesting is that The Ponce Key, not that long ago pushing 60% as the incumbent (and didn’t we all hear and hear and hear about that ?) is now at 40%, as the incumbent. Mmmm……the manifestations of simpering vanity, interspersed with faux rugby boy “GehSarmGuss” shit, won’t have missed that.
More interesting is Keys rating peaked at just before 2011 election and was on a slow slide downhill, then something happened in 2013 where it plateaued and then moved back to a higher level.
What was it in around 2013 that boosted Key ? Not the Christchurch quakes as they were earlier in 2011.
Key is now back down to the trough he had at end of 2012 ( low 40%).
Will he be doing some more of his special sauce to bump it up again ?
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As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
Today's big political news is that after months of wibbling, National's Chris Luxon has finally confirmed that he is willing to work with Winston Peters to become Prime Minister. Which is expected, but I guess it tells us something about which way the polls are going. Which raises the question: ...
Buzz from the Beehive Under something described as a “rebalance” of its immigration rules, the Government has adopted four of five recommendations made in an independent review released in July, The fifth, which called on the government to specify criteria for out-of-hours compliance visits similar to those used during ...
Some of you might know Gerard Otto (G), and his G News platform. This morning he wrote a letter to Christopher Luxon which I particularly enjoyed, and with his agreement I’m sharing it with you in this guest newsletter.If you’d like to make a contribution to support Gerard’s work you ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend. Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In ...
A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.Brian Easton writes – Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was ...
It’s been a while since we looked at the latest with the City Rail Link and there’s been some fantastic milestones recently. To start with, and most recently, CRL have released an awesome video showing a full fly-through of one of the tunnels. Come fly with us! You asked for ...
We are heading into another period of fast population growth without matching increased home building or infrastructure investment.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR:Labour and National detailed their house building and migration approaches over the weekend, with both pledging fast population growth policies without enough house building or infrastructure investment ...
Labour leader Chris Hipkins yesterday took the gloves off and laid into National and its leader Christopher Luxon. For many in Labour – and particularly for some at the top of the caucus and the party — it would not have been a moment too soon. POLITIK is aware ...
The leaders have had their go, they’ve told us the “what?” and the “why?” of their promises. Now it’s the turn of the would be Finance Ministers to tell us the “how?”, the “how much?”, and the “when?”A chance for those competing for the second most powerful job in the ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – Over the past 30-odd years it’s become almost an orthodoxy to blame or invoke neoliberalism for the failures of New Zealand society. On the left the usual response goes something like, neoliberalism is the cause of everything that’s gone wrong and the answer ...
Labour is in it for you. This election Kiwis will decide what kind of country they want New Zealand to be, who they trust to have their back, and how we can be better, together. This election matters. View our full Manifesto below. ...
The National Party's U-turn on water reform has left local councils high and dry and will drive up Kiwi's rates bills, Labour Party Local Government Spokesperson Kieran McAnulty says. ...
A re-elected Labour Party will continue to tackle discriminations still faced by members of the Rainbow community in areas ranging from surrogacy and adoption to blood donation. ...
National’s fiscal plan has failed to fill the massive fiscal hole in its dodgy tax scheme, it will mean more cuts to public services, more children being put into poverty and an end to action on climate change. ...
New Zealand First Policy Announcement:Law and Order New Zealand First believes that keeping society safe should be the priority of law-and-order policies. Every New Zealander deserves to feel safe, secure, and have their person and property respected. That is why New Zealand First continues to fix the flaws in ...
In last night’s leaders debate Labour Leader Chris Hipkins referred toaquote without giving any explanation of its content, which was about the ‘disease of co-governance’ that is perpetuated by the Māori elite, and he said it was racist. Then, without even examining the content, National leader Christopher Luxon agreed with ...
In last night’s leaders debate Labour Leader Chris Hipkins referred toaquote without giving any explanation of its content, which was about the ‘disease of co-governance’ that is perpetuated by the Māori elite, and he said it was racist. Then, without even examining the content, National leader Christopher Luxon agreed with ...
After years of criticising the Government on law and order, National have embarrassed themselves by conceding they have no new ideas and instead copied Labour’s Police policy announced three weeks ago, Labour Police spokesperson Ginny Andersen says. ...
Labour’s fiscal plan will continue its focus on carefully managing the books while protecting critical public services like health and education and investing to deliver high wage jobs and a low carbon economy. ...
New Zealand First today is announcing a policy on adjusting the rules and restrictions around access to the Job Seeker Benefit.New Zealand First’s policy is to introduce a capped time-period for any person to access the Job Seeker Benefit during their lifetime. Any individual will have the ability to access the Job Seeker ...
New Zealand First today is announcing a policy on adjusting the rules and restrictions around access to the Job Seeker Benefit.New Zealand First’s policy is to introduce a capped time-period for any person to access the Job Seeker Benefit during their lifetime. Any individual will have the ability to access the Job Seeker ...
National’s cuts to funding for beneficiaries will once again leave children and their parents with less, Spokesperson for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni said. ...
The Green Party will double the Best Start payment and make it available for every child under three years of age - and it will be paid for with a fair tax system. ...
Labour will fund more medicines for more New Zealanders by investing over $1 billion of new funding into Pharmac if re-elected, Chris Hipkins announced today. ...
Labour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines.With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrall’s own admission, just to keep up with current costs - then this is nothing ...
Labour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines.With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrall’s own admission, just to keep up with current costs - then this is nothing ...
This matter begins with the Pike River investigation being inadequate, inexplicably lengthy, and after millions of dollars, the evidence that should have been placed before the public still has not been. We have always believed that Pike River isacrime scene, and thataproper investigation would have come to that conclusion. Blue ...
This matter begins with the Pike River investigation being inadequate, inexplicably lengthy, and after millions of dollars, the evidence that should have been placed before the public still has not been. We have always believed that Pike River isacrime scene, and thataproper investigation would have come to that conclusion. Blue ...
New Zealand faces a stark choice this election – vote for Labour to continue to confront the climate emergency with eyes wide open or bury your head in the sand alongside Christopher Luxon. ...
Labour is supercharging its plan to solve the public housing shortfall created by National, promising another 6,000 homes on top of what has already been committed says Labour Housing spokesperson Dr Megan Woods. ...
Labour will back migrant working families by introducing a 10-year multiple-entry parents’ and grandparents’ Super Visa, and make good on the Dawn Raids apology by providing a one-off visa for overstayers who have been in the country ten years or more, Labour’s Immigration Spokesperson Andrew Little says. ...
The Green Party is today welcoming Labour coming to the table to ensure an amnesty for overstayers, but only the Greens will ensure immigration settings actually reflect the reality of people who have been failed by our immigration system. ...
The Green Party is calling on Auckland Council to do more to protect urban trees and housing developer Aedifice Property Group to restore and replant the native forest it cleared, and protect all the remaining trees on Ngahere Road in Pukekohe after a significant number of native trees were cut ...
Latest Police data shows monthly ram raids have hit a two-year low, laying waste to Christopher Luxon’s false claim that there are two ram raids a day says Labour’s Police Spokesperson Ginny Andersen. ...
Free and healthy school lunches will be here to stay if Labour is re-elected, guaranteeing food for our kids who need it most and significant cost saving for parents. ...
The next Labour Government will build a new hospital in Hawke’s Bay, Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall announced. ...
The Green Party will keep up the fight to support exploited migrant workers, including pushing to end single employer visas, after the government picked up Green recommendations to improve immigration settings. ...
Green Party co leader James Shaw visited a home in Auckland today that has been upgraded with a wide range of energy improvements, similar to those that would be supported through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...
The Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta’s presence in New York today at the United Nations General Assembly is a contempt of New Zealand’s “caretaker government” convention. Despite the long-standing caretaker convention, Minister Mahuta is today at the UN to sign a highly contentious “Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreement”, delivering a ...
The Pre-Election Fiscal Update Changes EverythingWithin an hour of this speech there is going to be a debate between the political parties that the media, under MMP, still think are the only parties that matter in this campaign. Both of those parties are riddled with inexperience, as evidenced by ...
National and ACT's tax plans don't add up, and that means deep cuts to the public services New Zealanders rely on, says Labour Campaign Chair Megan Woods. ...
Tuvalu is in the spotlight this week as communities across New Zealand celebrate Vaiaso o te Gagana Tuvalu – Tuvalu Language Week. “The Government has a proven record of supporting Pacific communities and ensuring more of our languages are spoken, heard and celebrated,” Pacific Peoples Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Many ...
Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today. Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
The Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...
Economy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...
Intermediate and secondary school students will have access to two million free tutoring sessions to help lift maths and literacy achievement A maths and literacy training fund for all primary and intermediate teachers More funding to help young ...
The Future is Up to Us released today by the Green Party is a clear vision of the future we can build together. The Green Party has also published an independent fiscal review of the policy priorities set out in The Future is Up to Us , which shows ...
The National Party’s U-turn on water reform has left local councils high and dry and will drive up Kiwi’s rates bills, Labour Party Local Government Spokesperson Kieran McAnulty says. “The National Party said they’ll repeal Affordable Water ...
Today, ACT Leader David Seymour released a video asking New Zealanders to Party Vote ACT to avoid inaction and instability. You can watch the video by clicking the image below. “ACT is making one final appeal to voters before the polls open tomorrow. ...
If New Zealanders choose a National-led government to rebuild the economy and deliver tax relief, we will go to work immediately implementing our 100 Day Action Plan, National Party Christopher Luxon says. “New Zealanders have waited six long years ...
With advance voting almost under way, Act pitches hard for voters to exclude "chaos" in a future government by ensuring National and Act can govern, Tim Murphy reports Act leader David Seymour is emphasising one extra seat could be the difference between "real change" and "chaos" in a centre-right government after ...
The country’s youngest candidate to run for Parliament has made three separate reports to police after her home was broken into and her rubbish rifled through. Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke says other political leaders have gaslighted her experience. Te Pāti Māori Hauraki Waikato’s candidate says she isn’t scared or shaken by the ...
Labour has released its full policy plan this afternoon, with a focus on improving education for children and funding for training and work for youth. ...
The Prime Minister and Labour leader has tested positive for Covid-19 and is isolating for five days or until he returns a negative test After feeling unwell on Sunday morning and cancelling his attendance at a Samoan church service in Auckland, Chris Hipkins has now tested positive for Covid-19. He ...
Prime minister Chris Hipkins has tested positive for Covid-19, and will be isolating for five days or until he returns a negative test. A spokesperson confirmed he has cold and flu symptoms that began yesterday and will continue with engagements he can undertake via Zoom. Hipkins missed an event on ...
The TVNZ Young Voters' debate run by Re:News was a rowdy interjection into a relatively subdued election campaign, and its moderator has some ideas on how media organisations can better cater to young people. ...
In a bizarre interview with TVNZ’s Q&A programme this morning, NZ First leader Winston Peters said he would “make sure” he secured the broadcasting portfolio should his party make it into government. “We’ll start with TVNZ after the campaign,” he told journalist Jack Tame in an interview that made yesterday’s ...
Labour’s manifesto launch will go ahead this afternoon, despite leader Chris Hipkins missing an event on the campaign trail this morning due to being unwell. Deputy prime minister Carmel Sepuloni is speaking at a Sāmoan church service in Auckland this morning in Hipkins’ place, but according to a Labour spokesperson, ...
National has pledged to remove the Auckland fuel tax, repeal water reform and resource management legislation, ban gang patches and remove funding for cultural reports used in sentencing in its first 100 days in office. The party has set out a range of priorities for its first 100 days in ...
The prime minister is missing an event on the campaign trail this morning because he’s unwell. Chris Hipkins was due to speak at a Sāmoan church service in Auckland, but deputy prime minister Carmel Sepuloni is stepping in to take his place. Hipkins is scheduled to launch Labour’s manifesto at ...
Lawrence Patchett talks to Bill Nelson about Root, Leaf, Flower, Fruit, a verse novel that Nelson has just released with Te Herenga Waka University Press. Bill Nelson demonstrated his versatility with his first book, Memorandum of Understanding. A book of surprising range and humour, it included a love poem styled ...
None of New Zealand’s commercial French vanilla ice creams contain the crucial ingredient. Dylan Jones busts the case wide open. Like any good investigation, this one started as an innocuous Thursday night question among flatmates: what isFrench vanilla ice cream, and how is it different to regular vanilla? A ...
Bard Billot on Lord WinstonThe Duke of Hazard Lord Winston, the Duke of Hazard, Rose late and yawned. The Palace was loud with the hubbub Of busy courtiers preparing to flee the city. Outside the gates, the followers of Baron Luxon Prepared for their assault upon the ...
National leader Christopher Luxon says he wouldn't do a deal with The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji, even if it could help avoid a potential coalition with New Zealand First. ...
School-aged children in the south are increasing their emotional literacy and talking about the tough stuff thanks to a rugby star’s commitment and a Southland teacher’s persistence Belinda Brown was a teacher with two decades of classroom experience when she heard Sir John Kirwan talk at a Winton pub about his ...
The promise of science to add commercial value to the waste of the New Zealand wine industry while limiting how much of it is sent to landfillOpinion: The New Zealand wine industry has been a great success story, creating world-renowned wines with continued export demand, but it’s an industry ...
My appointment diary will never be replaced by apps and platforms. It is the only true record of the minutiae of my life.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.Images by Tina Tiller.I bumped into an old friend and former colleague ...
The Pop-up Globe might be returning to the stage, but not everybody’s happy about it. Sam Brooks talks to some creditors – left in the dark after the company’s liquidation – about its shock 2023 return.On September 15, the Pop-up Globe announced it would be making an “audacious” return ...
RNZ News Green Party co-leader James Shaw has compared the language of New Zealand First leader Winston Peters to former US president Donald Trump, saying it may be emboldening violence against candidates in Aotearoa NZ’s election campaign. It comes after several candidates from different parties have spoken out about being ...
Chris Hipkins endured four seasons in one hour at an outdoor festival in an Auckland park – and claims to be sensing a rapid change in mood in the electorate as well, a fortnight from the election The Labour leader has gone there. He's publicly claiming his party has picked up 'momentum' in this ...
Green Party co-leader James Shaw has compared the language of New Zealand First leader Winston Peters to Donald Trump, saying it may be emboldening violence against candidates. ...
By Pauliasi Mateboto in Suva One in 50 Fijian children could have rheumatic heart disease and children between the ages of five to 15 years are the most at risk of rheumatic fever. While revealing these alarming statistics, Health Secretary Dr James Fong revealed the high figures indicated the high ...
RNZ News New Zealand police are investigating after the home of Te Pāti Māori election candidate Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke was invaded, vandalised, and a threatening letter left behind. They said the burglary of a Huntly home was reported to police on Monday. On Friday, Te Pāti Māori issued a statement saying ...
A protest against co-governance led by Julian Batchelor, a prominent figure in the movement, has ended, with police saying there were no issues. About 300 people marched from Civic Square to parliament in Wellington today, according to a police press release, and they have now departed parliament grounds. About 45 ...
The ACT Party says it would abolish Fair Pay Agreements, put a hold on minimum wage increases for three years, and remove the 2 January public holiday. ...
Police are investigating after the home of Te Pāti Māori candidate Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke was invaded, vandalised, and a threatening letter left behind. ...
There's no break in sight for the political party leaders as they continue to campaign in communities on Saturday. Follow RNZ's live blog for more. ...
Former Wellington mayor Andy Foster is attempting a political comeback as a candidate for NZ First. He talks to Joel MacManus.Fear not, Wellingtonians, your leader has returned from exile: Andy Foster is back.After nine terms on council and one term as mayor, Foster lost his re-election bid to ...
Former Wellington mayor Andy Foster is attempting a political comeback as a candidate for NZ First. He talks to Joel MacManus.Fear not, Wellingtonians, your leader has returned from exile: Andy Foster is back.After nine terms on council and one term as mayor, Foster lost his re-election bid to ...
In an interview that swung from jovial to furious and back again, Winston Peters joked about National leader Christopher Luxon’s claim not to know him, and denied his party was responsible for race-baiting that’s led to an escalation in vitriol towards Māori. In an interview on Newshub Nation this morning, ...
In an interview that swung from jovial to furious and back again, Winston Peters joked about National leader Christopher Luxon’s claim not to know him, and denied his party was responsible for race-baiting that’s led to an escalation in vitriol towards Māori. In an interview on Newshub Nation this morning, ...
The star of Shortland Street, The Gone and now Celebrity Treasure Island shares some of her favourite TV moments. Name a New Zealand television show, and Miriama Smith has probably been in it. For the past 30 years, the actor and presenter has been a welcome fixture on our TV ...
Every weekday, The Detail makes sense of the big news stories. This week, the big problems with tiny homes, how we can do our bit to mitigate climate change (besides recycling), why it's so difficult to keep our drinking water safe, the limits of mental health 'awareness', and the case of an ...
In this week's episode of VOTE2023, we talk to Green Party co-leader and Climate Change Minister James Shaw about student-focused policies, electric vehicles, the Emissions Trading Scheme, and whether the Green Party would form a coalition government with NationalThis series is made by politics students and aims to entertain ...
See ya later, ground. This week on Their house, my garden, it’s all pots, balconies, window ledges and the kitchen bench.Sometimes you move into a tiny CBD apartment to live out your urbanite dreams. You put on your sparkly eyeshadow and smile till 3am behind the bar of a ...
After a mild traumatic brain injury turned her life into a ‘game of snakes and ladders with no ladders’, Ursula Cochran discovered a powerful tool she could use to start getting better – her own brain. Here, she explores the potential of mind-body training for other sufferers.This piece is ...
After a mild traumatic brain injury turned her life into a ‘game of snakes and ladders with no ladders’, Ursula Cochran discovered a powerful tool she could use to start getting better – her own brain. Here, she explores the potential of mind-body training for sufferers of other chronic illnesses, ...
This is The Detail's Long Read – one in-depth story read by us every weekend This week, it's a story from RNZ's In Depth team: 'Fully embedded': The food lobby in Aotearoa. Investigative reporter Guyon Espiner has come out with a new series, Off the Shelf, looking at the quiet struggle to stop New Zealanders eating ...
Pacific Media Watch Barely a day passes without a story in the British or Australian media that ramps up fear about the rulers in Beijing, reports the investigative website Declassified Australia. According to an analysis by co-editors Antony Loewenstein and Peter Cronau, the Australian and British media are ramping up ...
Asia Pacific Report Members of Indonesia’s Nduga District Police and the Damai Cartenz Police Task Force have raided a residential house and the local head office of the Papuan Tabernacle Church (Kingmi Papua) in the town of Kenyam, Nduga Regency, Papua Pegunungan Province, reports Human Rights Monitor. Before raiding the ...
Te Pāti Māori’s candidate for Hauraki-Waikato says her home was “invaded, vandalised, and left with a threatening letter” in what the party is calling a “politically motivated attack”. Hana-Rawhiti Maipi Clark said the “premeditated and targeted attack” was the latest of three incidents to take place at her home just ...
The National Party's fiscal plan is ghoulish smoke and mirrors that will put more children into poverty, if you listen to Labour and the Green Party. ACT is critical, too. ...
“ACT will take the politics out of the Royal Commission into the Government’s Covid-19 response by allowing all New Zealanders to have their say on what should be investigated through a new crowdsourced terms of reference”, says ACT Leader ...
Te Pāti Māori are not strangers to hate speech and online threats. Today however, a line was crossed. Our Hauraki-Waikato candidate, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi Clark’s home was invaded, vandalised, and left with a threatening letter. This premeditated and ...
Analysis - Christopher Luxon's announcement that he'll work with Winston Peters after the election if he has to boosts NZ First's chances of getting back into Parliament, writes Peter Wilson. ...
National has wheeled out its stars into the blue, blue seat of Tāmaki which is under friendly fire attack from Act deputy leader Brooke van Velden First Bill English, then Christopher Luxon fronted within two days of each other for Simon O'Connor in the previously safe National heartland of the east ...
Chris Hipkins has condemned the increased risk of campaign trail violence as police investigate an assault on Labour’s Angela Roberts Labour’s candidate for Taranaki-King Country has confirmed she was assaulted following an election debate at the Inglewood Rotary Club earlier this week. Angela Roberts explained in a Facebook post after ...
National may have hoped its detailed fiscal plan would put to bed the lingering questions about how it will pay for its tax cuts, but there are no satisfactory answers in sight, Marc Daalder writesAnalysis: Grant Robertson says National's new fiscal plan has a $537 million hole in it and ...
“People who experience poverty as sanctioned by a capitalist system shouldn’t be punished for the predicament they’re in” says Brooke Pao Stanley, AAAP Coordinator. These parties use fear based politics to gain popularity and continue to push a narrative ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato Tax cuts, crime, the cost of living, potholes and co-governance … these and various other issues are now familiar to most voters. But there has been one major election area missing the serious debate ...
Labour candidate Angela Roberts, a list MP campaigning in Taranaki-King Country, was shaken and slapped by a member of the public following a debate on Tuesday this week. She described the incident on Facebook. While talking about education policy with an attendee after an event at Inglewood Rotary Club, the ...
The Forest Owners Association generally welcomes the National Party forestry policy announcement that National wants to give certainty and support to the forestry and wood processing industry clearly recognising its economic and environmental advantages. ...
Both major parties needed to have prioritised ongoing new investment in children and education in their allowances for new spending, NZEI Te Riu Roa president Mark Potter said today. “The two fiscal plans released this week made pre-commitments ...
National has finally released its fiscal plan after much delay and it reveals a plan to cut the incomes and essential public services the poorest New Zealanders rely on, just so they can pay for tax cuts for landlords and the well-off, says NZCTU ...
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Littles trend is sharp and heading in the wrong direction. (well, for a lot of readers here) – Personally I think he has a way to fall yet.
How long is this going to be sustainable? Will be interesting to watch the gap between him and Peters – if it grows and Peters gets (say) 5% points on him it will be very interesting.
Wonder how long Labour are willing to let this current experiment drag on.
You do realize that the preferred PM poll is meaningless, doncha? We don’t have a presidential election, so, meh. The really interesting result du jour is National losing their lead in last night’s poll. Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*
*He doesn’t have the guts.
That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.
The most extreme example of that was the really low preference for Helen Clark back in 1993 to 1997.
I am aware that some of the more stupid or space constrained of our political commentators prefer to think/present otherwise.
But that is more an artifact of the process of trying to fit a media message into a confined space. It has little to do with reality.
The ‘preferred PM’ was brought in to make Muldoon look good ( his negatives were very high).
Most other countries do an approval rating for each politician as the major result- which is the best measure as normally each major politician is doing a different job)
If all people that voted had a high degree of intellect iprent then I would agree but there are a lot of superficial people at the polling booths.
I think to a lot of people the brand of the leader is very important to their perception of the party. Hence team key.
Someone talk john Campbell into throwing his hat in the ring or someone else with the same credibility and I think labour would take a sharp rise in the polls.
like I said last night if Ritchie Mcaw was to run for the chch electorate without any policies I bet he would still win
“That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.”
I’d say there is a bit of a correlation and if so we shouldn’t try to pretend there isn’t.
To me it looks like the opposition leader has to be in touch – Clark was behind, but not far behind in 1999, Brash was closing the gap in 2005, Key-Clark was close before 2008. People are going to be reluctant to give party votes to a party led by someone they think is a doofus.
Whereas the current and last three Labour leaders have been massively behind, and this has correlated with the party. Obviously, patience is needed. There’s plenty of time before the next election. Brash was massively behind for most of his tenure but finished strongly.
What is Labour going to do to start people thinking they wouldn’t mind seeing Andrew Little as PM?
A bit of a correlation? Even if you couldn’t remember who won you could predict who won each election by looking at the preferred PM charts.
Coming into the election, well there have only been two flips since 1996 so the number of useful data points is pretty damn low.
But more two years out from an election? Because that is the obvious correlation to now.
Look at 1997 – Helen was still way way behind.
Or Brash in 2003 when he was in nowheresville
Or Key in 2006 when he was in the same position
Besides, that is always the two way race idea. Since 1993 there has not been a party that has gained over 50% of the parliamentary seats. They are coalitions, and the balance has been extraordinarily tight between ‘left’ and ‘right’ (complicated by the wannbe centrist parties – eg 2005).
The coalitions that happened in 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014 were literally perched on knife-edge of just a few seats for a majority. That was despite a massive variance between the leader preferences.
That is why I take little notice of it and never had. It is too variable to provide any kind of useful correlation during the years leading to elections. It also provides little correlation to seats earned by parties.
Yes and No
I think the only reason the Nats have stayed popular is because of their leader. People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.
You remove Key, you remove National.
I agree totally.
Likewise Winston Peters pulls up New Zealand First.
Winston Peters has been in politics for years and years, and always manages to get a headline, so has much more name recognition than Andrew Little, who is still becoming known to people who don’t follow politics constantly. Andrew Little is not a show pony type of person and happily does not try to be one. Thank goodness.
As opposed to Key, of course, who is a dickwad and a crook. Oh, and a lightweight.
Preferred PM is meaningful to the Government only. The opposition doing badly is meaningless, but them doing well is trouble.
The left rallying and getting their act together is really all that’s needed to win. There is SO MUCH ammunition to use to make Key unpopular that once there’s a legitimate alternative government, it won’t be hard to bring him down anyway.
+1
Fully agree with this. Labour could have had a chance in the 2014 election, but they blew it with stupid infighting and posturing.
” Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*”
You are right TRP.
He should follow Helen’s example in 2006, when the wheels fell off the Labour Party support.
She had the courage to call a snap election then didn’t she?
Your powers of spotting and illustrating analogies are woefully deficient, my elderly friend. Did you totally miss TRP’s point?
Recently one leader of a major party was full of bravado in the House, screaming at the other major party leader hysterically to to “ge[t]sum gu[t]ss’!!!11!!1!”
I’ll give you a clue: it wasn’t Helen Clark speaking to Don Brash.
I’m not prepared to support another leadership contest this side of the next general election. It would scupper any hopes at all of a change of government and I don’t see how it would take place without a groundswell of discontent from the wider party and its affiliates and while there’s the normal grumbling from activists who as always would like the party to be a little more left than it is, I don’t see the appetite for such a move.
The right is, of course, trying to foster this as it would prevent Labour getting on an even keel before 2017.
+1
I say, keep calm and carry on.
Ignore the distractions, the fools and the crooks.
Its important we give Little 6 months to get the numbers up
Isn’t that what people were saying in Nov 2014? The good people of New Plymouth have rejected him twice, so no surprises that the rest of the country follows suit.
No. It might possibly be what *someone* was saying in Nov 2014, but that’s different.
The country hasn’t “rejected” Little. What has happened is that a large number of people have voted for John Key in a meaningless preferred PM poll.
Absolutely. Important to keep Little in the job or else Labour will look unstable.
Except Labour won’t win while Little is leader. Better to dump him and find someone else and keep repeating the process until they find someone who can lead them to victory.
Preferred PM is a stupid measure. Favourability is the measure that actually means something. I don’t know why anyone pays attention to it.
Is Mr Little on a slippery slope? His numbers do not support Labour’s cause.
Mr Andrew Little is merely biding his time and rallying his troops, like a finely tuned athelete he doesn’t want to peak too soon and will be in a position of strength come the election while Winston Peters will have done his dash by then
+1
A 4th leader in 2 years is the answer…
… to a question only the righty trolls are asking 😉
Not at all, hes only been in the job seven months and is making great strides so he just needs some more time for NZers to get used to him
Indeed, but he has discovered it is easier to make great strides down hill, rather than up.
we agree. and most LOOs fall well below sitting PMs
I actually find the drop in Keys numbers more important – isn’t he the superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?
Little has had the job of maybe PM for Labour for a few month, he is being rubbished any single time people on the left and right get a chance simply for being i guess the Labour Candidate etc etc etc.
So no i don’t give much about this poll…..really, early days.
As for Winston, he has been doing good work lately and i guess there are some National voters that actually would vote for him rather then someone else in the National Party should dear Leader decide it is time to retire.
Labour should just stick with what they are doing at the moment. I can see how the press and certain parts of the so called Intelligentsia in NZ would hope for another leadership contest…but i hope they won’t fall for that.
With the levels of business confidence around at present? They have been heading for the toilet over the last year because there is nothing except storms on the horizon.
I wish it was storms on the horizon, but instead all I see coming this next summer is a long hot dry spell. Not only for our crops, but also for the cash-flow of our businesses.
I am not sure how the preferred PM question works. Something seems strange or meaningless here. I would like to see someone explain this.
———–
I am perplexed by the disconnect in the numbers.
What I wonder about is how can Key have only 38% preference as PM when his own party support is 47%? Similarly for Little, 10% vs 31%, or for Peters 8% vs 11% ?
One would expect, for example, most of a particular party supporters to be supporting their own leader as preferred PM. The numbers don’t show that.
————
I also think that the preferred PM question itself is a silly one because, there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.
Instead, it would be more sensible to word the question something like this:
“If the political party you support were to lead the government, who among that party would you prefer to be the PM?”
————
“there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.”
No – Labour are well behind on party votes, and have little (no pun intended) chance of having the most party votes next election. But like in the last hiding (election) they hold to the dream that they can cobble enough votes along with the greens, mana, bob the builder, the bus drivers mother and with a wing and a prayer Winston first, then they get to have the ONE PM.
James, you did not seem to have understood the questions in my comment at all.
It wasn’t about Mr Little.
Might be comparing apples with oranges.
Undecided voters are commonly left out of the reporting of party preferences, I guess it’s assumed they are non-voters (rather than Labour voters who are sick of Labour’s ongoing incompetence, or National voters who are sick of Nationals ongoing corruption and incompetence – or maybe they are just ditherers, who knows?).
We might see no change at all in the polls as they are reported, even if a major change in the proportion of undecideds happened; (say that undecideds went from 20% to 30% of people polled over the course of a month).
It doesn’t make this type of reporting of poll results less than useless, but care needs to be made when comparing different subsets pulled from the larger pool of information.
So, are the preferred PM preferences taken only from the pool of decided voters?
Or do those who are undecided partywise contribute toward the preferred PM?
You are incorrect.
The PM does not come from the party with the most votes.
It comes from the party able to form a government (even then, not sure that’s a requirement)
According to their website Colmar Brunton ask about preferred Prime Minister this way:
“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
IF NONE
“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
In the last poll there were 12% don’t know or refused for the party vote question. They don’t say on the website but I suspect there are a lot more don’t knows or none for preferred PM. I also think any current PM has an advantage outside of election year.
Little always said he’d spend a year going around the regions talking to people and didn’t expect a jump in the polls during that time. However, I personally don’t think he has been performing very well since just before the Budget, and a lot more needs to be done to boost his media presence (including improving his radio voice). I think he has done well with the caucus who seem to be more united.
Thanks for that, Karen
+1
Some people name the first person who comes into their head. That is invariably the PM of the day.
The more Little sounds like template stage managed sanitised Labour, and the less he sounds like Cut the Crap authentic Little, the lower his numbers will sink.
You are wrong. It would be stupid to be always angry. One may win a few activists and fellow travelers, but not the vast voting public. They need assurance, honesty and helpful policies.
Confucius says chamomile might do you some good in seeing things through a little more clearly about Little and Labour than you have been hastily doing in the recent past.
Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?
Didn’t say a thing about being angry all the time. But OK if you think that Little is better off with his vetted and prepared remarks let’s see how his numbers go over the next 6 months.
More people are more motivated by what they believe a party stands for, rather than by any singular personality attached to that party.
I strongly believe that that depends on the party and the personality.
There are still 2, (yes, TWO), years to go and policies that are good for the country and the people are being worked out. Remember the party policies and ethos are being reviewed and overhauled after the election defeat. Be patient. In the meantime, put your energy into the dodgy dealings of the present crooked government. And oh, stop putting down Labour like a heat seeking Gaboon Viper going after its quary.
http://rmkp2gaboonviper.weebly.com/physical-characteristics.html
Can someone layer “mood of the nation” over “preferred party”?
Be useful to see if there’s a clear precursor effect – and when they shear away.
Skinny made a good point in another post today, when he invited Little to “..relax and smile, point and wave”.
Key and Peters do that. Popular people smile.
However, all of the New Zealand media is pro – National. That is a huge bias in base support for Key. Even when as an addicted weirdo, he is tugging the hair of targeted women and young girls.
They still support him,Even when he is cooking the books in favour of his beloved Casino, the high rollers and the associated low brothels.
Even when his closest friends include the grovelling and dark minded Cameron Slater.
The media supports him Even when he is constantly crapping on, lying like the cheat he is.
Labour, NZ First and the Greens need to combine now and put up together, hoardings saying ” the lying Key must go” or the like.
Also they must form “NZ Honest Media Group” and build it up.
Don’t worry, the Gnats are shooting themselves in the foot at the moment, all the opposition parties need to do is get out of the way and let the media finally grab hold of these stories.
Labour is working on rehabilitating its image right now and positioning itself for Government. The Labour/Green parties have their own visions to communicate to NZ, rolling in the muck with the dirty Gnats gets counterproductive after a while.
It a stupid question to ask ,because most of the people asked would only know one PM .Who ever is the presnt PM. A look at past polls will confirm this . anyway how often have the polls beeen correct?. An interesting question to ask people is “did they vote for Muldoon ? Not many will say they did yet that scary man kept on winning .
TPP +100
There are some (and a lot on this forum) – who will only vote Labour / Greens / Mana regardless of who is leading them.
BUT – It is a good question when polling because – a lot of people actually think – who do I want to be PM when they are casting their vote.
Thats why you get ACT in Epsom for example.
If anyone thinks that being the 3rd most preferred PM and being almost 30% behind them ISNT a bad thing (assuming you wanted the guy to win), then, well, you deserve to be laughed at.
Thanks for confirming that ol’ tugger is the only reason national gets elected.
Mc Flock – Adding to reasonable conversation since ages ago / sarc.
Upshot – I believe the person who I want as PM matters to me and dictates my voting on the day.
Same as many on the left. Its a simple concept – but in this crazy MMP world you have to think like this.
Could be a problem for Winny tho’ Angry Andrew keeps dropping away – With Winston looked at as the best leader for the opposition for people – they might force him to show his cards his coalition partners before the election.
Always figured you as a personalities before principles kind of voter.
Obviously – Their personality comes into it – but I choose on who I think will lead the country in the direction that I want to go.
In the National leader was someone who I didnt like – But I thought that they would do the best job – I would still vote for them.
No-one cares what you say you’d do: your word isn’t worth shit.
Governments are made up of MPs who are aligned to political parties and this was the case before ‘crazy’ MMP. PMs do not have the power to do anything without caucus support.
Perhaps you think the PM is all important, but do not assume other people think this as I doubt it is true. Possibly some people are put off a party because they loathe the leader, but very few would see a particular leader as the main reason for voting for a party.
You do realise there’s more to a government than prime minister, right?
And yet that is the factor that “dictates” your vote 🙄
I do understand this. But if labour choose to ignore it – they will be trying to get elected a government who has a guy (who the way he is going) will be in single digit preferred Prime minister figures – against someone who is iro 40%.
If you dont think that this will make it harder for labour …. well mate … your dreaming.
James
+1
Chart sez Little going down a little since the 2014 election, but Labour going up.
Doesn’t seem to be much of a relationship at all. Good luck with your hero-worship.
Preferred PM generally follows the incumbent, more or less, so there’s a measure of inevitability there. What’s interesting is that The Ponce Key, not that long ago pushing 60% as the incumbent (and didn’t we all hear and hear and hear about that ?) is now at 40%, as the incumbent. Mmmm……the manifestations of simpering vanity, interspersed with faux rugby boy “GehSarmGuss” shit, won’t have missed that.
More interesting is Keys rating peaked at just before 2011 election and was on a slow slide downhill, then something happened in 2013 where it plateaued and then moved back to a higher level.
What was it in around 2013 that boosted Key ? Not the Christchurch quakes as they were earlier in 2011.
Key is now back down to the trough he had at end of 2012 ( low 40%).
Will he be doing some more of his special sauce to bump it up again ?