Littles trend is sharp and heading in the wrong direction. (well, for a lot of readers here) – Personally I think he has a way to fall yet.
How long is this going to be sustainable? Will be interesting to watch the gap between him and Peters – if it grows and Peters gets (say) 5% points on him it will be very interesting.
Wonder how long Labour are willing to let this current experiment drag on.
You do realize that the preferred PM poll is meaningless, doncha? We don’t have a presidential election, so, meh. The really interesting result du jour is National losing their lead in last night’s poll. Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*
The ‘preferred PM’ was brought in to make Muldoon look good ( his negatives were very high).
Most other countries do an approval rating for each politician as the major result- which is the best measure as normally each major politician is doing a different job)
If all people that voted had a high degree of intellect iprent then I would agree but there are a lot of superficial people at the polling booths.
I think to a lot of people the brand of the leader is very important to their perception of the party. Hence team key.
Someone talk john Campbell into throwing his hat in the ring or someone else with the same credibility and I think labour would take a sharp rise in the polls.
like I said last night if Ritchie Mcaw was to run for the chch electorate without any policies I bet he would still win
“That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.”
I’d say there is a bit of a correlation and if so we shouldn’t try to pretend there isn’t.
To me it looks like the opposition leader has to be in touch – Clark was behind, but not far behind in 1999, Brash was closing the gap in 2005, Key-Clark was close before 2008. People are going to be reluctant to give party votes to a party led by someone they think is a doofus.
Whereas the current and last three Labour leaders have been massively behind, and this has correlated with the party. Obviously, patience is needed. There’s plenty of time before the next election. Brash was massively behind for most of his tenure but finished strongly.
What is Labour going to do to start people thinking they wouldn’t mind seeing Andrew Little as PM?
Coming into the election, well there have only been two flips since 1996 so the number of useful data points is pretty damn low.
But more two years out from an election? Because that is the obvious correlation to now.
Look at 1997 – Helen was still way way behind.
Or Brash in 2003 when he was in nowheresville
Or Key in 2006 when he was in the same position
Besides, that is always the two way race idea. Since 1993 there has not been a party that has gained over 50% of the parliamentary seats. They are coalitions, and the balance has been extraordinarily tight between ‘left’ and ‘right’ (complicated by the wannbe centrist parties – eg 2005).
The coalitions that happened in 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014 were literally perched on knife-edge of just a few seats for a majority. That was despite a massive variance between the leader preferences.
That is why I take little notice of it and never had. It is too variable to provide any kind of useful correlation during the years leading to elections. It also provides little correlation to seats earned by parties.
I think the only reason the Nats have stayed popular is because of their leader. People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.
Winston Peters has been in politics for years and years, and always manages to get a headline, so has much more name recognition than Andrew Little, who is still becoming known to people who don’t follow politics constantly. Andrew Little is not a show pony type of person and happily does not try to be one. Thank goodness.
People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.
As opposed to Key, of course, who is a dickwad and a crook. Oh, and a lightweight.
Preferred PM is meaningful to the Government only. The opposition doing badly is meaningless, but them doing well is trouble.
The left rallying and getting their act together is really all that’s needed to win. There is SO MUCH ammunition to use to make Key unpopular that once there’s a legitimate alternative government, it won’t be hard to bring him down anyway.
” Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*”
You are right TRP.
He should follow Helen’s example in 2006, when the wheels fell off the Labour Party support.
She had the courage to call a snap election then didn’t she?
Your powers of spotting and illustrating analogies are woefully deficient, my elderly friend. Did you totally miss TRP’s point?
Recently one leader of a major party was full of bravado in the House, screaming at the other major party leader hysterically to to “ge[t]sum gu[t]ss’!!!11!!1!”
I’ll give you a clue: it wasn’t Helen Clark speaking to Don Brash.
I’m not prepared to support another leadership contest this side of the next general election. It would scupper any hopes at all of a change of government and I don’t see how it would take place without a groundswell of discontent from the wider party and its affiliates and while there’s the normal grumbling from activists who as always would like the party to be a little more left than it is, I don’t see the appetite for such a move.
The right is, of course, trying to foster this as it would prevent Labour getting on an even keel before 2017.
Isn’t that what people were saying in Nov 2014? The good people of New Plymouth have rejected him twice, so no surprises that the rest of the country follows suit.
Except Labour won’t win while Little is leader. Better to dump him and find someone else and keep repeating the process until they find someone who can lead them to victory.
Mr Andrew Little is merely biding his time and rallying his troops, like a finely tuned athelete he doesn’t want to peak too soon and will be in a position of strength come the election while Winston Peters will have done his dash by then
I actually find the drop in Keys numbers more important – isn’t he the superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?
Little has had the job of maybe PM for Labour for a few month, he is being rubbished any single time people on the left and right get a chance simply for being i guess the Labour Candidate etc etc etc.
So no i don’t give much about this poll…..really, early days.
As for Winston, he has been doing good work lately and i guess there are some National voters that actually would vote for him rather then someone else in the National Party should dear Leader decide it is time to retire.
Labour should just stick with what they are doing at the moment. I can see how the press and certain parts of the so called Intelligentsia in NZ would hope for another leadership contest…but i hope they won’t fall for that.
…superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?
With the levels of business confidence around at present? They have been heading for the toilet over the last year because there is nothing except storms on the horizon.
I wish it was storms on the horizon, but instead all I see coming this next summer is a long hot dry spell. Not only for our crops, but also for the cash-flow of our businesses.
I am not sure how the preferred PM question works. Something seems strange or meaningless here. I would like to see someone explain this.
———–
I am perplexed by the disconnect in the numbers.
What I wonder about is how can Key have only 38% preference as PM when his own party support is 47%? Similarly for Little, 10% vs 31%, or for Peters 8% vs 11% ?
One would expect, for example, most of a particular party supporters to be supporting their own leader as preferred PM. The numbers don’t show that.
————
I also think that the preferred PM question itself is a silly one because, there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.
Instead, it would be more sensible to word the question something like this:
“If the political party you support were to lead the government, who among that party would you prefer to be the PM?”
————
“there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.”
No – Labour are well behind on party votes, and have little (no pun intended) chance of having the most party votes next election. But like in the last hiding (election) they hold to the dream that they can cobble enough votes along with the greens, mana, bob the builder, the bus drivers mother and with a wing and a prayer Winston first, then they get to have the ONE PM.
Undecided voters are commonly left out of the reporting of party preferences, I guess it’s assumed they are non-voters (rather than Labour voters who are sick of Labour’s ongoing incompetence, or National voters who are sick of Nationals ongoing corruption and incompetence – or maybe they are just ditherers, who knows?).
We might see no change at all in the polls as they are reported, even if a major change in the proportion of undecideds happened; (say that undecideds went from 20% to 30% of people polled over the course of a month).
It doesn’t make this type of reporting of poll results less than useless, but care needs to be made when comparing different subsets pulled from the larger pool of information.
So, are the preferred PM preferences taken only from the pool of decided voters?
Or do those who are undecided partywise contribute toward the preferred PM?
According to their website Colmar Brunton ask about preferred Prime Minister this way:
“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
IF NONE
“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
In the last poll there were 12% don’t know or refused for the party vote question. They don’t say on the website but I suspect there are a lot more don’t knows or none for preferred PM. I also think any current PM has an advantage outside of election year.
Little always said he’d spend a year going around the regions talking to people and didn’t expect a jump in the polls during that time. However, I personally don’t think he has been performing very well since just before the Budget, and a lot more needs to be done to boost his media presence (including improving his radio voice). I think he has done well with the caucus who seem to be more united.
The more Little sounds like template stage managed sanitised Labour, and the less he sounds like Cut the Crap authentic Little, the lower his numbers will sink.
You are wrong. It would be stupid to be always angry. One may win a few activists and fellow travelers, but not the vast voting public. They need assurance, honesty and helpful policies.
Confucius says chamomile might do you some good in seeing things through a little more clearly about Little and Labour than you have been hastily doing in the recent past.
Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?
Didn’t say a thing about being angry all the time. But OK if you think that Little is better off with his vetted and prepared remarks let’s see how his numbers go over the next 6 months.
Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?
More people are more motivated by what they believe a party stands for, rather than by any singular personality attached to that party.
There are still 2, (yes, TWO), years to go and policies that are good for the country and the people are being worked out. Remember the party policies and ethos are being reviewed and overhauled after the election defeat. Be patient. In the meantime, put your energy into the dodgy dealings of the present crooked government. And oh, stop putting down Labour like a heat seeking Gaboon Viper going after its quary.
Skinny made a good point in another post today, when he invited Little to “..relax and smile, point and wave”.
Key and Peters do that. Popular people smile.
However, all of the New Zealand media is pro – National. That is a huge bias in base support for Key. Even when as an addicted weirdo, he is tugging the hair of targeted women and young girls.
They still support him,Even when he is cooking the books in favour of his beloved Casino, the high rollers and the associated low brothels.
Even when his closest friends include the grovelling and dark minded Cameron Slater.
The media supports him Even when he is constantly crapping on, lying like the cheat he is.
Labour, NZ First and the Greens need to combine now and put up together, hoardings saying ” the lying Key must go” or the like.
Also they must form “NZ Honest Media Group” and build it up.
Don’t worry, the Gnats are shooting themselves in the foot at the moment, all the opposition parties need to do is get out of the way and let the media finally grab hold of these stories.
Labour is working on rehabilitating its image right now and positioning itself for Government. The Labour/Green parties have their own visions to communicate to NZ, rolling in the muck with the dirty Gnats gets counterproductive after a while.
It a stupid question to ask ,because most of the people asked would only know one PM .Who ever is the presnt PM. A look at past polls will confirm this . anyway how often have the polls beeen correct?. An interesting question to ask people is “did they vote for Muldoon ? Not many will say they did yet that scary man kept on winning .
There are some (and a lot on this forum) – who will only vote Labour / Greens / Mana regardless of who is leading them.
BUT – It is a good question when polling because – a lot of people actually think – who do I want to be PM when they are casting their vote.
Thats why you get ACT in Epsom for example.
If anyone thinks that being the 3rd most preferred PM and being almost 30% behind them ISNT a bad thing (assuming you wanted the guy to win), then, well, you deserve to be laughed at.
Mc Flock – Adding to reasonable conversation since ages ago / sarc.
Upshot – I believe the person who I want as PM matters to me and dictates my voting on the day.
Same as many on the left. Its a simple concept – but in this crazy MMP world you have to think like this.
Could be a problem for Winny tho’ Angry Andrew keeps dropping away – With Winston looked at as the best leader for the opposition for people – they might force him to show his cards his coalition partners before the election.
Governments are made up of MPs who are aligned to political parties and this was the case before ‘crazy’ MMP. PMs do not have the power to do anything without caucus support.
Perhaps you think the PM is all important, but do not assume other people think this as I doubt it is true. Possibly some people are put off a party because they loathe the leader, but very few would see a particular leader as the main reason for voting for a party.
I do understand this. But if labour choose to ignore it – they will be trying to get elected a government who has a guy (who the way he is going) will be in single digit preferred Prime minister figures – against someone who is iro 40%.
If you dont think that this will make it harder for labour …. well mate … your dreaming.
Preferred PM generally follows the incumbent, more or less, so there’s a measure of inevitability there. What’s interesting is that The Ponce Key, not that long ago pushing 60% as the incumbent (and didn’t we all hear and hear and hear about that ?) is now at 40%, as the incumbent. Mmmm……the manifestations of simpering vanity, interspersed with faux rugby boy “GehSarmGuss” shit, won’t have missed that.
More interesting is Keys rating peaked at just before 2011 election and was on a slow slide downhill, then something happened in 2013 where it plateaued and then moved back to a higher level.
What was it in around 2013 that boosted Key ? Not the Christchurch quakes as they were earlier in 2011.
Key is now back down to the trough he had at end of 2012 ( low 40%).
Will he be doing some more of his special sauce to bump it up again ?
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New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
The Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...
An objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney ShutterstockThis article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle KarolinaGrabowska/Pexels If you didn’t have food allergies as a child, is it possible to develop them as an adult? The short answer is yes. But the reasons why are much ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Ans Westra, self-portrait, c. 1963. National Library ref AWM-0705-F They try but invariably fail – those writers who believe they are capable of encapsulating in prose or verse the essence of ...
Stewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. What’s all this? When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Franco Montalto, Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University Water runs into a storm drain in a Los Angeles alley on Aug. 19, 2023, during Tropical Storm Hilary.Citizen of the Planet/Universal Images ...
The inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones has turned up a new witness who says he saw two teenagers and a small child in a high vis vest in the area where the boy’s body was found the day he died. Lachie’s body was discovered face up ...
Stories from the tenancy trenches, featuring spider infestations, cupboard rats and same-sex discrimination. Lucy’s brother was living in a damp 1930s building in Mt Eden where “he had to tie the cupboard doors closed so the rats didn’t get in”. Although he shared custody of his six-year-old son, his property ...
Simeon Brown, Chris Luxon, and Wayne Brown climbed into a hole and announced a plan to solve Auckland’s water woes. This is how it’ll work. New Zealand’s pipes are munted. They’re cracked and leaking, and struggling to handle all the extra poos excreted by our rising population. It’s a big, ...
I knew Taika Waititi quite well when he was a kid. His mother lived in a tall narrow house in Aro St, and my youngest sister had a similar house two doors along. They were both single mums, they each had a son aged seven. Taika and my nephew Stepan ...
Opinion: “As time passes, knowledge of the circumstances of the August 2016 outbreak will fade and its immediate impact will be lost.” This statement is from the 2017 report of the Official Inquiry into the Havelock North campylobacteriosis outbreak. The then National-led government established the inquiry after the outbreak left ...
Opinion: Nicholas Khoo looks at two key points in the high-stakes foreign policy pact debate – and asks if NZ can engage with as little drama as possible. The post Where to next for the Aukus ruckus? appeared first on Newsroom. ...
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Opinion: ‘Reference-class forecasting’ is at the heart of improving pricing a project and identifying the expected timeframe but it doesn’t appear to be in use here The post ‘Think fast and act slowly’ is failing big projects appeared first on Newsroom. ...
What do a sombrero in Argentina and cognitive driving tests have in common? Don’t worry, we’re not setting up a bad joke. Hinengaro Clinic dementia clinician Gregory Winkelman has the answer on today’s episode of The Detail. “We ask a patient’s spouse or son or daughter: If you went to ...
Wellington long jumper Phoebe Edwards is back and she’s having fun again. Until this year, Edwards, a top athlete in her teens, had never competed as a senior athlete in New Zealand. In March, the 26-year-old won a national long jump title in a lifetime best of 6.28m after ...
After replacing a fifth of their caucus in just four months, the Greens’ opportunity to reset, reshuffle and refocus on the Government is quickly slipping away The post Persistent Green Party scandals delay caucus reset appeared first on Newsroom. ...
ANALYSIS:By Olli Hellmann, University of Waikato When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day today on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also to mark a defining event for national identity. The battle of Gallipoli against ...
By Robin Martin, RNZ News reporter A New Zealand local authority, Whanganui District Council, has passed a motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, condemnation of all acts of violence and terror against civilians on both sides of the conflict and the immediate return of hostages. It comes as ...
Asia Pacific Report The Aotearoa chapter of the Women’s International league for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) has appealed to the New Zealand government to call out Israel over the “cruel and barbaric use of force” in Gaza and demand a permanent ceasefire. The league’s open letter was sent to Prime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government will invest $566 million over a decade on data, maps and other tools to promote exploration and development in Australia’s resources industry. The project will fund “the first comprehensive map of what’s ...
Asia Pacific Report Following an open letter by Auckland University academics speaking out in support of their students’ right to protest against the genocidal Israeli war on Gaza, a group of academics at Otago University have today also called on New Zealand academic institutions to “repair colonial violence” and end ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda J. Graham, Professor and Director of the Centre for Inclusive Education, Queensland University of Technology Ryan Tauss/ Unsplash, CC BY Two male students have been expelled from a Melbourne private school for their involvement in a list ranking female students. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The Reserve Bank is now assuming Australians will see no interest rate cuts this year – and quite possibly none before the next federal election, due next May. That’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University The Victorian budget offered more of the same on Tuesday, with the only change being how the budget papers were packaged. The usual shrink wrap was gone, hinting at savings in the pages ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Coalition is demanding extensive amendments to the government’s legislation targeting non-citizens who refuse to co-operate with their removal. In a dissenting report to the senate inquiry into the legislation, the Coalition says it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanita Yadav, Senior Research Fellow, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University Brett Boardman/Belvoir The complex and grappling issue of violence against women takes centre stage in the soul-stirring solo dance drama Nayika: A Dancing Girl. During a dinner conversation ...
Disruption to patient care from a nationwide junior doctors strike is bordering on unsafe, a senior doctor claims, despite what health officials say. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute Ground Picture/Shutterstock The anti-cancer drug abemaciclib (also known as Vernezio) has this month been added to the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) to treat certain ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominic McAfee, Postdoctoral researcher, marine ecology, University of Adelaide Robbie Porter, OzFish Unlimited Around Australia, hundreds of people are coming together to help a once-prized, but decimated and largely forgotten marine ecosystem. They’re busy restoring Australia’s native oyster and mussel reefs. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology Austin Human/Unsplash How does Earth stop meteors from hitting Earth and hurting people? –Asher, 6 years 11 months, New South Wales Alright, let’s embark on a meteor ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rory Mulcahy, Associate Professor of Marketing, University of the Sunshine Coast Professional sports organisations regularly promote and develop initiatives to support diversity, equity and inclusion. While sport has the power to change attitudes by sparking conversations about political issues and social ...
Comment: The weekly Monday post-Cabinet press conference is a useful forum for observing Christopher Luxon and how he is developing into the job of Prime Minister. He attempts to convey the impression of a man of action, speaking fast, delivering memorised National Party strategies in a connect-the-slogans kind of way, ...
Double votes, missing ballot boxes, tired tech and stressed staff: how tick-tallying went astray at last year’s election. Cast your mind back to November 2023, that bleary-eyed post-election period duringwhichwewaited, andwaited, for a coalition deal to be hammered out. A distraction from the hotel-hopping of our ...
International audiences are starting to discover what New Zealand already knew about After the Party.When After the Party aired in New Zealand last year, the response was fast and furious. In his preview for Rec Room, Duncan Greive said it was a “gritty, wrenching and highly confronting” series. By ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shahram Akbarzadeh, Convenor of the Middle East Studies Forum (MESF), and Acting Director the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University Iran’s leadership has been a direct beneficiary of the months-long war in Gaza. With every missile that Israel fires ...
Claire Mabey reviews the haunting and sexy debut novel from Sinéad Gleeson, who is about to touch down in Aotearoa for a string of live events.When Irish writer Sinéad Gleeson was in Aotearoa in 2018 with her spectacular collection of essays, Constellations, she told me she was working on ...
PNG Post-Courier Bougainville Affairs Minister Manasseh Makiba has described the Post-Courier’s front page story yesterday regarding a meeting between Bougainville and national government leaders as “sensationalised” and without substance. The Autonomous Bougainville Government (AGB) had warned it might use “other avenues to gain its independence” should the PNG government “continue ...
Where some saw the worst press conference given by the government to date, Anna Rawhiti-Connell recognised girl maths game.Nicola Willis, recently exasperated by comparisons to Ruth Richardson, said she was “a bit sick of being compared with every female finance minister that’s ever been out there.”Some think that’s ...
The March results are reported against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 (HYEFU 2023), published on 20 December 2023 and the results for the same period for the previous year. ...
Jamie Arbuckle, the district councillor who became an MP but decided to keep getting paid for both roles, will instead donate one salary to charity. ...
Adding gender to the Human Rights Act would simply make the implicit explicit. So why is it so controversial? Paul Thistoll explain. At present, Aotearoa’s 1993 Human Rights Act (HRA) includes sex, marital status, religious belief, ethical belief (meaning a lack of religious belief), colour, race, ethnicity or national origin, ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, an 18-year-old who’s studying and working in hospo shares their approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here.Gender: Transmasc Age: 18 Ethnicity: Pākehā/Māori Role: Student, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Kelsey, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Resources Minister Shane Jones has reportedly asked officials for advice on whether oil and gas companies could be offered “bonds” as compensation if drilling rights offered by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Gleeson, Associate Professor of Law, Macquarie University Shutterstock The Albanese government is weighing up the costs of delivering an election promise to protect religious people from discrimination in Commonwealth law. Such protections were relatively uncontroversial when included in state anti-discrimination ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yen Ying Lim, Associate Professor, Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University Pexels/Andrea Piacquadio Dementia is often described as “the long goodbye”. Although the person is still alive, dementia slowly and irreversibly chips away at their memories and the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judy Bush, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of Melbourne Adam Calaitzis/Shutterstock I met with a friend for a walk beside Merri Creek, in inner Melbourne. She had lived in the area for a few years, and as we walked ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Throsby, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Macquarie University Arts companies and individual artists in Australia are supported by government arts agencies, philanthropists, industry bodies, private donors and patrons. However, it is frequently overlooked that a major source of support for the arts ...
Harm Reduction Coalition Aotearoa, a new incorporated society dedicated to ending harmful drug policies, officially launched today, seeks a new fit-for-purpose drug law for Aotearoa New Zealand, rooted in science, experience and evidence. ...
The Corrections Minister admits he "muddied the water" after he and the Prime Minister repeatedly provided incorrect information about a $1.9 billion prison spend-up. ...
It took a post-post-cabinet statement to confirm that 810 new beds will be built at Waikeria, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Littles trend is sharp and heading in the wrong direction. (well, for a lot of readers here) – Personally I think he has a way to fall yet.
How long is this going to be sustainable? Will be interesting to watch the gap between him and Peters – if it grows and Peters gets (say) 5% points on him it will be very interesting.
Wonder how long Labour are willing to let this current experiment drag on.
You do realize that the preferred PM poll is meaningless, doncha? We don’t have a presidential election, so, meh. The really interesting result du jour is National losing their lead in last night’s poll. Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*
*He doesn’t have the guts.
That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.
The most extreme example of that was the really low preference for Helen Clark back in 1993 to 1997.
I am aware that some of the more stupid or space constrained of our political commentators prefer to think/present otherwise.
But that is more an artifact of the process of trying to fit a media message into a confined space. It has little to do with reality.
The ‘preferred PM’ was brought in to make Muldoon look good ( his negatives were very high).
Most other countries do an approval rating for each politician as the major result- which is the best measure as normally each major politician is doing a different job)
If all people that voted had a high degree of intellect iprent then I would agree but there are a lot of superficial people at the polling booths.
I think to a lot of people the brand of the leader is very important to their perception of the party. Hence team key.
Someone talk john Campbell into throwing his hat in the ring or someone else with the same credibility and I think labour would take a sharp rise in the polls.
like I said last night if Ritchie Mcaw was to run for the chch electorate without any policies I bet he would still win
“That is my view as well. Preferred PM appears to have little relationship with voting for parties.”
I’d say there is a bit of a correlation and if so we shouldn’t try to pretend there isn’t.
To me it looks like the opposition leader has to be in touch – Clark was behind, but not far behind in 1999, Brash was closing the gap in 2005, Key-Clark was close before 2008. People are going to be reluctant to give party votes to a party led by someone they think is a doofus.
Whereas the current and last three Labour leaders have been massively behind, and this has correlated with the party. Obviously, patience is needed. There’s plenty of time before the next election. Brash was massively behind for most of his tenure but finished strongly.
What is Labour going to do to start people thinking they wouldn’t mind seeing Andrew Little as PM?
A bit of a correlation? Even if you couldn’t remember who won you could predict who won each election by looking at the preferred PM charts.
Coming into the election, well there have only been two flips since 1996 so the number of useful data points is pretty damn low.
But more two years out from an election? Because that is the obvious correlation to now.
Look at 1997 – Helen was still way way behind.
Or Brash in 2003 when he was in nowheresville
Or Key in 2006 when he was in the same position
Besides, that is always the two way race idea. Since 1993 there has not been a party that has gained over 50% of the parliamentary seats. They are coalitions, and the balance has been extraordinarily tight between ‘left’ and ‘right’ (complicated by the wannbe centrist parties – eg 2005).
The coalitions that happened in 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014 were literally perched on knife-edge of just a few seats for a majority. That was despite a massive variance between the leader preferences.
That is why I take little notice of it and never had. It is too variable to provide any kind of useful correlation during the years leading to elections. It also provides little correlation to seats earned by parties.
Yes and No
I think the only reason the Nats have stayed popular is because of their leader. People (for some reason that I cannot comprehend) seem to like him and give their vote to the party even though the rest of their MPs are lightweights and crooks.
You remove Key, you remove National.
I agree totally.
Likewise Winston Peters pulls up New Zealand First.
Winston Peters has been in politics for years and years, and always manages to get a headline, so has much more name recognition than Andrew Little, who is still becoming known to people who don’t follow politics constantly. Andrew Little is not a show pony type of person and happily does not try to be one. Thank goodness.
As opposed to Key, of course, who is a dickwad and a crook. Oh, and a lightweight.
Preferred PM is meaningful to the Government only. The opposition doing badly is meaningless, but them doing well is trouble.
The left rallying and getting their act together is really all that’s needed to win. There is SO MUCH ammunition to use to make Key unpopular that once there’s a legitimate alternative government, it won’t be hard to bring him down anyway.
+1
Fully agree with this. Labour could have had a chance in the 2014 election, but they blew it with stupid infighting and posturing.
” Time for a snap election, if Key has got the guts*”
You are right TRP.
He should follow Helen’s example in 2006, when the wheels fell off the Labour Party support.
She had the courage to call a snap election then didn’t she?
Your powers of spotting and illustrating analogies are woefully deficient, my elderly friend. Did you totally miss TRP’s point?
Recently one leader of a major party was full of bravado in the House, screaming at the other major party leader hysterically to to “ge[t]sum gu[t]ss’!!!11!!1!”
I’ll give you a clue: it wasn’t Helen Clark speaking to Don Brash.
I’m not prepared to support another leadership contest this side of the next general election. It would scupper any hopes at all of a change of government and I don’t see how it would take place without a groundswell of discontent from the wider party and its affiliates and while there’s the normal grumbling from activists who as always would like the party to be a little more left than it is, I don’t see the appetite for such a move.
The right is, of course, trying to foster this as it would prevent Labour getting on an even keel before 2017.
+1
I say, keep calm and carry on.
Ignore the distractions, the fools and the crooks.
Its important we give Little 6 months to get the numbers up
Isn’t that what people were saying in Nov 2014? The good people of New Plymouth have rejected him twice, so no surprises that the rest of the country follows suit.
No. It might possibly be what *someone* was saying in Nov 2014, but that’s different.
The country hasn’t “rejected” Little. What has happened is that a large number of people have voted for John Key in a meaningless preferred PM poll.
Absolutely. Important to keep Little in the job or else Labour will look unstable.
Except Labour won’t win while Little is leader. Better to dump him and find someone else and keep repeating the process until they find someone who can lead them to victory.
Preferred PM is a stupid measure. Favourability is the measure that actually means something. I don’t know why anyone pays attention to it.
Is Mr Little on a slippery slope? His numbers do not support Labour’s cause.
Mr Andrew Little is merely biding his time and rallying his troops, like a finely tuned athelete he doesn’t want to peak too soon and will be in a position of strength come the election while Winston Peters will have done his dash by then
+1
A 4th leader in 2 years is the answer…
… to a question only the righty trolls are asking 😉
Not at all, hes only been in the job seven months and is making great strides so he just needs some more time for NZers to get used to him
Indeed, but he has discovered it is easier to make great strides down hill, rather than up.
we agree. and most LOOs fall well below sitting PMs
I actually find the drop in Keys numbers more important – isn’t he the superstar with the rockstar economy and the high house prices and such?
Little has had the job of maybe PM for Labour for a few month, he is being rubbished any single time people on the left and right get a chance simply for being i guess the Labour Candidate etc etc etc.
So no i don’t give much about this poll…..really, early days.
As for Winston, he has been doing good work lately and i guess there are some National voters that actually would vote for him rather then someone else in the National Party should dear Leader decide it is time to retire.
Labour should just stick with what they are doing at the moment. I can see how the press and certain parts of the so called Intelligentsia in NZ would hope for another leadership contest…but i hope they won’t fall for that.
With the levels of business confidence around at present? They have been heading for the toilet over the last year because there is nothing except storms on the horizon.
I wish it was storms on the horizon, but instead all I see coming this next summer is a long hot dry spell. Not only for our crops, but also for the cash-flow of our businesses.
I am not sure how the preferred PM question works. Something seems strange or meaningless here. I would like to see someone explain this.
———–
I am perplexed by the disconnect in the numbers.
What I wonder about is how can Key have only 38% preference as PM when his own party support is 47%? Similarly for Little, 10% vs 31%, or for Peters 8% vs 11% ?
One would expect, for example, most of a particular party supporters to be supporting their own leader as preferred PM. The numbers don’t show that.
————
I also think that the preferred PM question itself is a silly one because, there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.
Instead, it would be more sensible to word the question something like this:
“If the political party you support were to lead the government, who among that party would you prefer to be the PM?”
————
“there can be only ONE PM who HAS to be from the party with the most party votes anyway.”
No – Labour are well behind on party votes, and have little (no pun intended) chance of having the most party votes next election. But like in the last hiding (election) they hold to the dream that they can cobble enough votes along with the greens, mana, bob the builder, the bus drivers mother and with a wing and a prayer Winston first, then they get to have the ONE PM.
James, you did not seem to have understood the questions in my comment at all.
It wasn’t about Mr Little.
Might be comparing apples with oranges.
Undecided voters are commonly left out of the reporting of party preferences, I guess it’s assumed they are non-voters (rather than Labour voters who are sick of Labour’s ongoing incompetence, or National voters who are sick of Nationals ongoing corruption and incompetence – or maybe they are just ditherers, who knows?).
We might see no change at all in the polls as they are reported, even if a major change in the proportion of undecideds happened; (say that undecideds went from 20% to 30% of people polled over the course of a month).
It doesn’t make this type of reporting of poll results less than useless, but care needs to be made when comparing different subsets pulled from the larger pool of information.
So, are the preferred PM preferences taken only from the pool of decided voters?
Or do those who are undecided partywise contribute toward the preferred PM?
You are incorrect.
The PM does not come from the party with the most votes.
It comes from the party able to form a government (even then, not sure that’s a requirement)
According to their website Colmar Brunton ask about preferred Prime Minister this way:
“Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister?”
IF NONE
“Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister?”
In the last poll there were 12% don’t know or refused for the party vote question. They don’t say on the website but I suspect there are a lot more don’t knows or none for preferred PM. I also think any current PM has an advantage outside of election year.
Little always said he’d spend a year going around the regions talking to people and didn’t expect a jump in the polls during that time. However, I personally don’t think he has been performing very well since just before the Budget, and a lot more needs to be done to boost his media presence (including improving his radio voice). I think he has done well with the caucus who seem to be more united.
Thanks for that, Karen
+1
Some people name the first person who comes into their head. That is invariably the PM of the day.
The more Little sounds like template stage managed sanitised Labour, and the less he sounds like Cut the Crap authentic Little, the lower his numbers will sink.
You are wrong. It would be stupid to be always angry. One may win a few activists and fellow travelers, but not the vast voting public. They need assurance, honesty and helpful policies.
Confucius says chamomile might do you some good in seeing things through a little more clearly about Little and Labour than you have been hastily doing in the recent past.
Anyway, (if you were replying to me), I wasn’t talking just about Little, but about the methodology/meaningfulness of the preferred PM numbers Vs party support. Any view on that?
Didn’t say a thing about being angry all the time. But OK if you think that Little is better off with his vetted and prepared remarks let’s see how his numbers go over the next 6 months.
More people are more motivated by what they believe a party stands for, rather than by any singular personality attached to that party.
I strongly believe that that depends on the party and the personality.
There are still 2, (yes, TWO), years to go and policies that are good for the country and the people are being worked out. Remember the party policies and ethos are being reviewed and overhauled after the election defeat. Be patient. In the meantime, put your energy into the dodgy dealings of the present crooked government. And oh, stop putting down Labour like a heat seeking Gaboon Viper going after its quary.
http://rmkp2gaboonviper.weebly.com/physical-characteristics.html
Can someone layer “mood of the nation” over “preferred party”?
Be useful to see if there’s a clear precursor effect – and when they shear away.
Skinny made a good point in another post today, when he invited Little to “..relax and smile, point and wave”.
Key and Peters do that. Popular people smile.
However, all of the New Zealand media is pro – National. That is a huge bias in base support for Key. Even when as an addicted weirdo, he is tugging the hair of targeted women and young girls.
They still support him,Even when he is cooking the books in favour of his beloved Casino, the high rollers and the associated low brothels.
Even when his closest friends include the grovelling and dark minded Cameron Slater.
The media supports him Even when he is constantly crapping on, lying like the cheat he is.
Labour, NZ First and the Greens need to combine now and put up together, hoardings saying ” the lying Key must go” or the like.
Also they must form “NZ Honest Media Group” and build it up.
Don’t worry, the Gnats are shooting themselves in the foot at the moment, all the opposition parties need to do is get out of the way and let the media finally grab hold of these stories.
Labour is working on rehabilitating its image right now and positioning itself for Government. The Labour/Green parties have their own visions to communicate to NZ, rolling in the muck with the dirty Gnats gets counterproductive after a while.
It a stupid question to ask ,because most of the people asked would only know one PM .Who ever is the presnt PM. A look at past polls will confirm this . anyway how often have the polls beeen correct?. An interesting question to ask people is “did they vote for Muldoon ? Not many will say they did yet that scary man kept on winning .
TPP +100
There are some (and a lot on this forum) – who will only vote Labour / Greens / Mana regardless of who is leading them.
BUT – It is a good question when polling because – a lot of people actually think – who do I want to be PM when they are casting their vote.
Thats why you get ACT in Epsom for example.
If anyone thinks that being the 3rd most preferred PM and being almost 30% behind them ISNT a bad thing (assuming you wanted the guy to win), then, well, you deserve to be laughed at.
Thanks for confirming that ol’ tugger is the only reason national gets elected.
Mc Flock – Adding to reasonable conversation since ages ago / sarc.
Upshot – I believe the person who I want as PM matters to me and dictates my voting on the day.
Same as many on the left. Its a simple concept – but in this crazy MMP world you have to think like this.
Could be a problem for Winny tho’ Angry Andrew keeps dropping away – With Winston looked at as the best leader for the opposition for people – they might force him to show his cards his coalition partners before the election.
Always figured you as a personalities before principles kind of voter.
Obviously – Their personality comes into it – but I choose on who I think will lead the country in the direction that I want to go.
In the National leader was someone who I didnt like – But I thought that they would do the best job – I would still vote for them.
No-one cares what you say you’d do: your word isn’t worth shit.
Governments are made up of MPs who are aligned to political parties and this was the case before ‘crazy’ MMP. PMs do not have the power to do anything without caucus support.
Perhaps you think the PM is all important, but do not assume other people think this as I doubt it is true. Possibly some people are put off a party because they loathe the leader, but very few would see a particular leader as the main reason for voting for a party.
You do realise there’s more to a government than prime minister, right?
And yet that is the factor that “dictates” your vote 🙄
I do understand this. But if labour choose to ignore it – they will be trying to get elected a government who has a guy (who the way he is going) will be in single digit preferred Prime minister figures – against someone who is iro 40%.
If you dont think that this will make it harder for labour …. well mate … your dreaming.
James
+1
Chart sez Little going down a little since the 2014 election, but Labour going up.
Doesn’t seem to be much of a relationship at all. Good luck with your hero-worship.
Preferred PM generally follows the incumbent, more or less, so there’s a measure of inevitability there. What’s interesting is that The Ponce Key, not that long ago pushing 60% as the incumbent (and didn’t we all hear and hear and hear about that ?) is now at 40%, as the incumbent. Mmmm……the manifestations of simpering vanity, interspersed with faux rugby boy “GehSarmGuss” shit, won’t have missed that.
More interesting is Keys rating peaked at just before 2011 election and was on a slow slide downhill, then something happened in 2013 where it plateaued and then moved back to a higher level.
What was it in around 2013 that boosted Key ? Not the Christchurch quakes as they were earlier in 2011.
Key is now back down to the trough he had at end of 2012 ( low 40%).
Will he be doing some more of his special sauce to bump it up again ?