A tsunami of wing clipped kiwi?

45 comments on “A tsunami of wing clipped kiwi? ”

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1. Janet 1

   9 November 2020 at 10:02 am

   Yes the cuckoos are planning to come home it seems.

   more from the same pay-walled article

   "More than 50,000 Kiwis have already returned home this year as the pandemic has ravaged the world.

   But as many as 500,000 could be on their way in the next few years.

   A survey of 15,000 expats by KEA (Kiwi Expats Association) found that 49 per cent were planning to come home.

   About half of them said they would be returning in the next two years."

   They cannot expect full free healthcare, superannuation and welfare generally. Any entitlement will need to be on a pro-rata bases -time worked in NZ / time worked off-shore.
   • alwyn 1.1

     9 November 2020 at 10:47 am

     You say that "They cannot expect full free healthcare …..".

     That may be your opinion but I certainly don't think it is the opinion of ex-pat Kiwis, or at least I know it isn't the view of a number of Kiwis I know who live in Australia. There sole reason for planning to come home is that they do expect to get welfare benefits here which they don't get in Oz.

     Mind you they don't expect to stay here if things pick up in Australia. They will be gone from here as they seem to think of New Zealand as simply being a safe haven, and a generous benefactor, in a storm.

     That is only anecdotal of course. It tends however to be the view of the children of my friends where the children are currently in Australia. There are quite a large number of them looking at the prospect of a (perhaps temporary) return.

     Since there doesn't seem to be any indication that our Government has any intention of cutting back benefits, or Superannuation entitlements, here I would think that their belief in what they are entitled to will prove to be true.
     • Tricledrown 1.1.1

       9 November 2020 at 12:52 pm

       Alwynger if you have been out of the country for more than 10years you have no access to any benefit except an emergency Benefit which is much lower than standard benefits and has to be paid back. There are other stand down periods as well.

       Facts instead of tormenting divisiveness but as unusual you always have divide New Zealanders with your ignorant Trumpish rhetoric.
   • Tricledrown 1.2

     9 November 2020 at 12:39 pm

     Janet there are standown periods for New Zealanders returning home depending how long they have been out of the country.

     Seeding division is a Trumpish uneducated simplistic and nasty.

     Many of these people are bringing lots of Money ,are highly educated motivated people we have been wanting in our economy for a very long time.

     So they will be paying higher taxes and contributing more to the economy than you I bet.Do you pay enough taxes to cover your govt services.

     These returnees will have skills and experience that you only get by going overseas and working in much bigger economies.
     • woodart 1.2.1

       9 November 2020 at 1:27 pm

       yes, many, if not most returning kiwis will bring skills and $$$ that will benefit the country.
     • Janet 1.2.2

       9 November 2020 at 2:10 pm

       “So they will be paying higher taxes and contributing more to the economy than you I bet.Do you pay enough taxes to cover your govt services.”

       No, I do not pay enough taxes now to cover the superannuation I get now ! BUT I am still running a small farm and am working fulltime on it and over all my working years – not all self -employed but , all in NZ , I will have relatively paid much more tax to the NZ government than many returning will have when they retire.

       I had a friend return to NZ who had worked half his working life in NZ and the other half elsewhere in the world. He was over 70 when he returned home. He was stood down, I think it was 5 yrs , before he could receive any superannuation. In his case it would have definitely been better for him if he could have received half- superannuation from the year he returned home. Pro-rata . I think there are things that need to be addressed to make everything fair.
2. SPC 2

   9 November 2020 at 10:27 am

   The lack of students, tourists and migrant workers means more jobs for locals.

   And we will hear a lot of businesses complaining about that – locals not skilled (less mention of having to pay less skilled locals more to do the work).

   And the numbers of Kiwis coming in is rationed by managed isolation, and some of them are just relocating because they can work on-line and enjoy society freedom and others – in front-line education and health, who can walk into "safe" jobs.

   The tentative plans of those overseas, will for most, come to nothing (as they will still be in the queue when this is over – by effective treatment if not vaccine).

   I do not see any population increase inflow – because the numbers coming in from Oz (loss of jobs) is restricted, and yet those of use who want better pay and cheaper housing can still go to Oz.
3. RedLogix 3

   9 November 2020 at 10:31 am

   This is a theme I've returned to often. Some 25% of all people born in NZ now live elsewhere, often chasing opportunity that simply didn't exist here.

   The unexamined risk was that a global event like COVID could precipitate a mass return. The big impact being obviously to an already stressed housing market.

   Yet many will also return with capital and valuable experience that we can embrace wholeheartedly if we can set aside our often parochial instincts.
   • Janet 3.1

     9 November 2020 at 12:03 pm

     Yes I welcome them home too, they are us , and they will replace the so called "need" for continuing immigration , but "More than half of respondents had been away for more than 10 years." They will be coming to an age when they will need more healthcare and then superannuation and they have not been paying forward for this.
     • Adrian 3.1.1

       9 November 2020 at 1:04 pm

       Why do the Ukranians want our wine? We know its choice, bro.
       • Adrian 3.1.1.1

         9 November 2020 at 1:05 pm

         Wrong slot, this is a reply to Tony.
4. Muttonbird 4

   9 November 2020 at 10:34 am

   They should be made to build new and pay for their own required infrastructure. Existing residential property should be off limits to these fair-weather Kiwis.
   • SPC 4.1

     9 November 2020 at 10:49 am

     For mine, its those borrowing money to buy investment property who should be restricted to newbuilds. How this can be done is the problem/question? Maybe a mortgage surcharge on loans to investors when they buy existing homes.
     • Patricia Bremner 4.1.1

       9 November 2020 at 11:43 am

       In other countries the deposit controls investors. Up to 50% cash deposit for investment properties with strong tax rules for the first 5 years.(not borrowed money) and low deposit for home owners who must live in the property as their principal address for 3 years.

       Many Kiwis coming back will have been in unsecured work, which has since disappeared.

       They are looking at the employment, but housing keeping warm and food costs will be a shock for those returning from Australia particularly.

       Many will though bring portable business and wealth. So over all people seeing this as a desirable place to live is beneficial.

       Keeping the virus under control is critical to this so the continued control through the voucher system is sensible. The promoting of "sad cases" will continue, and perhaps we need a facility kept for medical emergency critical or some of those situations which can not be planned for. jmo.
       • SPC 4.1.1.1

         9 November 2020 at 12:28 pm

         I would have the deposit controls like that, but the RB Governor is independent and his brief is merely to keep banks safe and manage inflation – not equity, or any sort of housing policy as such.
5. Sanctuary 5

   9 November 2020 at 10:51 am

   There is huge potential culture clash that could occur here – a huge influx of highly self-regarding expats who may exude an attitude of doing us all an enormous favour by gracing us with their return running head long into a locals who might regard them as fair weather kiwis will make for interesting times.
   • AB 5.1

     10 November 2020 at 1:48 pm

     I fully expect to be condescended to by at least some of these unimaginably brilliant returnees. I’ll get used to it.
6. Pat 6

   9 November 2020 at 10:52 am

   Unemployment is a lagging indicator and the assumptions about returning expats are exactly that, assumptions….many are returning temporarily and not all are cashed up and able to purchase property.

   The local economy is still being supported by wage subsidies (only recently ended), enhanced unemployment payments (due to end), mortgage holidays (end in March) and the export markets can be expected to decline as our offshore markets also feel the impact of shrinking economic activity.

   The impacts do not happen instantly and the longer the recession lasts the greater the cascade effect
   • Tricledrown 6.1

     9 November 2020 at 12:44 pm

     Pat bordering on xenophobia for years we have been complaining about the brain drain and how do we attract these highly educated people back to NZ.

     Now we are getting these people back some people are trying to make divisive cheap nasty political shots.
     • Pat 6.1.1

       9 November 2020 at 12:45 pm

       Are you suggesting that my comment is expressing xenophobia and is some sort of cheap shot?
       • Tricledrown 6.1.1.1

         9 November 2020 at 1:03 pm

         Yes claiming our economy is going to be much worse is completely unfounded most economic indicators show there are many areas of facing major shortages in Labour Bank economists and David Seymour have claimed double digit unemployment are going to hit NZ.

         They have been proven Wrong.

         This type of hysteria is feeding into the narrative that returning kiwis are taking NZ jobs.

         Facts please .

         Exports are going up in most areas because we are Covid free,especially as meat processing plants many of the countries we export to have shut because of Covid.Primary exports are well up on previous years so let's have some balance in the argument.
         • Pat 6.1.1.1.1

           9 November 2020 at 1:17 pm

           What part of 'lagging indicator' do you not understand?….the major economic impacts of the GFC did not present until 2-3 years after the event…it takes time for businesses to fail, it takes time for mortgages to fall into arrears, it takes time to retrain and develop new employment opportunities.

           Do you expect the government is willing or able to sustain the pre covid level of activity for 3 years?….they themselves say they cannot.

           As to exports our covid free status has little to do with whether our major markets can buy what we can offer, indeed their own covid ravaged economies will increasingly struggle with unemployment and reduced GDP (recession)….not to mention the increased cost of transport from the most transport isolated part of the world.

           And am still not sure where the xenophobia enters into the discussion
           • Tricledrown 6.1.1.1.1.1

             9 November 2020 at 10:06 pm

             Pat National were in power after 2008 their policies lead to a worse scenario then tax cuts for the well off tax increases for the poor .

             Minor stimulation packages that created a few jobs in roading.

             The Canterbury earthquakes were the turning point that got the economy of its knees effectively an accidental stimulation package of $80 odd billion $66 billion from insurance payouts the National govt got re elelected on the back of the economic stimulus it created.

             Labour this time around has pumped $200 billion in stimulus so far over 4 years .free apprenticeships as well

             So I don't expect the downturn to be as bad as the neigh sayers.

             Also Grant Robertson has said he will do more if necessary.

             [Please stick to one e-mail address, thanks]
             • Tricledrown …

               10 November 2020 at 12:31 am

               Sorry also the $25 dollar benefit increase .

               Nationals GFC response was to blame the poor and drug use by beneficiaries which was eventually proven a total lie as around only 1% use compared to 10% among workers Todd Barclay ironically caught out in Bill Englishs (the DP and finance minister who demonized the unemployed)old electorate.
7. Adrian 7

   9 November 2020 at 11:48 am

   After 2 years in Britain young Kiwis are sent packing anyway so the natural return rate is 50% give or take the few who can get residency.

   I'm surprised the 20% "Want To Come Home "rate is so low even with Covid.

   I think the survey is bullshit.
8. Tony Veitch (not etc.) 8

   9 November 2020 at 1:00 pm

   I bought a can of Ukrainian beer the other day (it wasn't very nice!) – why the f*** do we need beer from obscure parts of Europe or anywhere? Choice???

   Our exports will see us through the pandemic because we are a food producer, but perhaps we need some sort of import licensing policy (like in the 1960s) so that places like the Warehouse and others cannot bring in a lot of useless crap.
   • greywarshark 8.1

     9 November 2020 at 1:12 pm

     I bought some little pottles of tiramisu? made in ITALY out of the supermarket chiller the other day. Quite nice, but totally inefficient except from the 'logic' and logistics of the free market. They are largely dairy goods, and can be made well by NZs. They had got to the clearance of the sell-before items, so gave them a whirl at a reduction. I prefer to buy it made at the local Italian pizzeria and wine place which I like to frequent, which has small desserts and baked goods.
   • Phil 8.2

     9 November 2020 at 3:29 pm

     Most 'foreign' beer sold in NZ is brewed locally under license and tastes nothing like the true-equivalent. What was the brand?
     • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 8.2.1

       9 November 2020 at 7:56 pm

       Sorry, thrown the can out but as I recall, Oblomon or similar. It did say 'imported' on the can.
     • tc 8.2.2

       10 November 2020 at 9:49 am

       Totally Phil, they stamped out the parallel importing of genuine Stella/Becks etc years back as chains like 'The Mill' would trumpet them being same price but imported.

       Independent (part of Asahi now) brews many aside from the 2 lion made beers mentioned above they're all consistently inferior.

       All good as kiwi craft beer is fantastic and nibbling ever so slightly into the main brands.
   • Tricledrown 8.3

     10 November 2020 at 7:04 am

     Don't buy foreign beer and then complain if we want to export then we need to import if we shut down imports other countries will do the same.
9. Ad 9

   9 November 2020 at 1:08 pm

   This government is spending tens of billions of debt and tax funding on infrastructure projects that make marginal improvements, but don't alter the economy at all.

   Even if we are able to sustain the same economy as before, that's not a good thing.

   • Overseas tourism indeed tourism itself is a low-wage, low-productivity, low-input, low-innovation economic sector. Propped us up for a decade.
   • Tertiary education as we practice it here is a low-wage, low-productivity, high bulk input, low-innovation economic sector.
   • Dairy and meat and forestry and fishing are predominantly low-wage, low-productivity, high bulk input sectors
   • Then there's the other mainstays of our economy, finance and insurance and property. The wages and salaries are better, but they are industries based principally on paying rent of one kind or other
   • And finally there's government infrastructure expenditure of tens of billions in debt and taxes. This is a low-return, low-productivity, low innovation sector. And as above in property, most of the money is tied up in rent in the form of maintenance.

   I’m really glad that the world continues to drink our wine, and elated that we are nowhere near 9% unemployed so far. But how much more of our money do central city landlords need in implied subsidy of their wealth?

   The above pretty much sums up our main private sector employment. Rod Oram and the Productivity Commission have been saying similar things for a while. But I haven’t seen fresh thinking out of MBIE or others on this whole picture for a while.

   The effort from government and private sector that's missing is the one where we start to focus on business sectors with low bulk and mass, high innovation requiring high brain input, low use of mass cheap labour, and high salaries. And doesn't need us to meet us in person.

   There's no useful plan yet other than advanced make-work programmes, and sectoral packages that continue to prop up what is simply not advancing our interests.

   It's great to have more Kiwi come home, but they need the focus and framework from central government and business that is more substantial than that outlined by Ardern so far.
   • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 9.1

     9 November 2020 at 2:57 pm

     Yes Ad, we still suffer under the neolib mantra – low wages, bulk products so the rich can get richer, houses as commodities rather than a basic right, cheap imported labour and so on.

     Labour have the mandate to change all that, but will they, that is the question. I'm not holding my breath.
   • RedLogix 9.2

     9 November 2020 at 3:31 pm

     focus on business sectors with low bulk and mass, high innovation requiring high brain input, low use of mass cheap labour, and high salaries.

     Often the precise kind of thing us 'entitled' ex-pats have been exposed to.

     When I went to Australia in 2013 I thought I knew what I was doing, seven years later I can only say that I was wrong. Yet the really silly part is that if I came back to NZ right now there would be no work for me, over qualified and too old.

     As for transforming our economy; I’d put my bet on radically improving our agricultural and horticultural sector. It’s what we’re good at.
     • Ad 9.2.1

       9 November 2020 at 4:13 pm

       When do you start winding back Red?

       Most people who work in and out of countries have some idea of what their little cottage on the hill will look like, and when.
     • Draco T Bastard 9.2.2

       9 November 2020 at 5:34 pm

       As for transforming our economy; I’d put my bet on radically improving our agricultural and horticultural sector. It’s what we’re good at.

       Its what we like to think we're good at but the reality is that there's no such thing as radically improving our agricultural and horticultural sector. Neither is an 'industry' that can be radically altered. Improvements are in the slim to none basket which is why the farmers keep complaining about the rules necessary to protect our waterways and other aspects of our environment.
10. Craig H 10

    9 November 2020 at 1:23 pm

    Tourism is a high portion of our GDP, but I think it helped that more than half was domestic tourism anyway, as stated we have had a lot of our own international tourists become domestic tourists (my wife and I did 2 weeks around Northland after our planned USA trip was a Covid casualty, was fantastic), and a lot of workers in the high volume international tourist market (e.g. Queenstown) were migrants, so when they lost their jobs, the impact on our labour market statistics was nil.
    • woodart 10.1

      9 November 2020 at 1:43 pm

      yes, tourism very much a double edged sword, when it comes to employment, and $$$$ in or out of NZ. add to that, environmental costs( poo in waterways, and jet fuel burnt). would like to see some data re education industry and cheap foreign labour. suspect their is a high crossover.
      • Craig H 10.1.1

        9 November 2020 at 1:52 pm

        Hard to say – I surmise that international education has less migrant employment because a lot of it is via NZ institutions (schools, universities and polytechs) with NZ teachers and educators. Obviously there are also private training establishments (PTEs in the industry lingo), but they still employ some NZ staff.
        • CrimsonGhost 10.1.1.1

          9 November 2020 at 6:52 pm

          Nah man. student Loan scheme was National Neo-liberal bullshit in the first place. Was the general population asked via referendum if a good idea? No! Time for Universal Student Allowance or GMI or UBI. Time to write down debt/steadily work towards abolition of SLS. I like NZF idea (but expanded) of writing off 5%-10% for every year debtor working in NZ for benefit of NZ society & paying taxes. Charge an arm and a leg to overseas NZ debtors, but give a carrot of 10% off if they commit to returning and working for/in NZ for 5 years. Institute a matching system like Kiwisaver. every dollar paid down, Gov wipes .50c. SLS is a dead albatross around our younger peoples necks. The fact it's so actually pushed a lot of people to go offshore/stay offshore to avoid those concrete boots. A perverse incentive/hopefully unintended consequence of the stupid policy …along with making it harder for young to save for homes/get mortgages.
      • Poission 10.1.2

        9 November 2020 at 2:04 pm

        Education is an interesting problem,fees (direct transfer are around 1.1 b) the rest of the assumption for the gdp makeup is living cost expenditure food, accomodation etc( some of which is driven by domestic work) which is transferable to a nz resident.
11. Daily Lurker 11

    9 November 2020 at 4:57 pm

    Be great to have them back once any overdue student loans are paid. Genuine hardship cases excepted.
    • Draco T Bastard 11.1

      9 November 2020 at 5:35 pm

      The only thing that should be done with student loans is that they get written off.
      • Tricledrown 11.1.1

        10 November 2020 at 7:08 am

        Dtb for resident NZers.
    • CrimsonGhost 11.2

      9 November 2020 at 6:17 pm

      Nah man. student Loan scheme was National Neo-liberal bullshit in the first place. Was the general population asked via referendum if a good idea? No! Time for Universal Student Allowance or GMI or UBI. Time to write down debt/steadily work towards abolition of SLS. I like NZF idea (but expanded) of writing off 5%-10% for every year debtor working in NZ for benefit of NZ society & paying taxes. Charge an arm and a leg to overseas NZ debtors, but give a carrot of 10% off if they commit to returning and working for/in NZ for 5 years. Institute a matching system like Kiwisaver. every dollar paid down, Gov wipes .50c. SLS is a dead albatross around our younger peoples necks. The fact it's so actually pushed a lot of people to go offshore/stay offshore to avoid those concrete boots. A perverse incentive/hopefully unintended consequence of the stupid policy …along with making it harder for young to save for homes/get mortgages.

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