Written By:
advantage - Date published:
1:29 pm, September 8th, 2023 - 38 comments
Categories: act, broadcasting, david seymour, energy, housing, law, law and "order", police, uncategorized -
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What would a set of ACT ministers in Cabinet look like?
ACT at 15% of the vote, with about 15 MPs, and wild policies, makes for a set of strong reasons to get out and vote against ACT and National this election.
Making an assumption only ACT and National are required to form a government in October, this is what ACT taking Ministerial positions could look like for New Zealand.
At 15% of the vote there’s a reasonable case for David Seymour as Deputy Prime Minister. Every time the Prime Minister is overseas, David Seymour is going to be running Cabinet and running the country. Think about that.
But for now let’s assume he reaches for a star and falls on a cloud.
Let’s assume some of the existing Cabinet Ministerial position groupings remain.
Let’s also assume for this exercise that a Prime Minister Luxon gives some credence to qualifications and experience for ministers. So here we go:
1. David Seymour: Minister of Regulatory Reform, Workplace Relations, Minister of State Services
This is the set of positions Seymour will need to really cut through the public service and to disestablish the agencies he wants gone. He will count it a success when the ‘population-based’ entities like Ethnic Affairs, Women’s Affairs, Pacific Affairs, Maori Development, Maori Language Commission, anything specific to protecting a sector of the population such as Disabilities or the Human Rights Commission is eradicated. A further target will be the Treaty of Waitangi itself and whether he gets his referendum on a new statutory meaning about the effects of the Treaty via Jeremy Bentham.
I would expect he will have a strong hand in appointing the new State Services Commissioner or indeed whether State Services survives at all.
I would expect a hard line target in the 2024 Budget for decreased public servant head count.
It is also the position to gut the many worker protections that Labour have built in over 6 years. A real question will be whether things like Matariki survive, or paid parental leave extensions, or sick leave and meal breaks, or maximum hours her day worked, or other multiple basic rights are kept.
2. Brooke van Velden: Leader of the House, Minister of Housing
Brooke has no Housing background, but plenty of chops in the machinery of Parliament both as lobbyist and as legislator. She is due to take on a serious portfolio. If Brooke got Housing we should expect to see a rapid gutting of Kainga Ora staff and organisation, stopping any remaining masterplanned developments to replace it with pure market delivery, a rapid selloff of current state housing, and gutting the Building Act and the Building and Natural Resources Act to be replaced with much more limited contractual forms of property management.
We don’t have to guess what this will do for vulnerable families, vulnerable elderly couples, and vulnerable young people trying to find a safe place to live.
As Leader of the House she becomes the bulldog that pushes ACT’s aggressive legislative agenda.
3. Todd Stephenson. Minister of Energy and Resources, Associate Finance
Todd is the truest expression of high corporate values, now inserted into Queenstown which is now New Zealand’s primary Top 500 gateway for your billionaire class. Strait outa Lumsden, this is the guy you turn to if you want your deals done in government and you want to get rich without dying.
If he gets hold of a section of MBIE such as Energy, expect to see oil rigs and wind farms on our 12 mile limit, fewer constraints to land wind farms, an Infrastructure Commission populated by infrastructure mezzanine finance people that will make it near indistinct from Infratil, and a new focus on intellectual property protection. We have been accustomed over 25 years to having some democratic say in where things go.
We should stop expecting that under ACT energy policy.
4. Simon Court, Attorney General
This is the guy who will push the legislation to gut anything to do with standards such as building standards, water standards, air standards, anything to do with the old RMA. Hand in glove with Andrew Hoggard he will be ripping through environmental constraints we have. Three Waters governance instruments will be revisited, so presumably that means revisiting the other co-governance instruments like all our national parks, Maori MP seats, and Maori local council seats.
The effects of this kind of guy in housing would be similar to Maurice Williamson in leaky housing and Winston Peters in Maori and ethnic relations.
5. Parmeet Parmjar, Minister of Broadcasting, Minister of Research and Science, Minister for Crown Research Entities
With a PHD in biological sciences and food manufacturing, and also some background in a variety of smaller state regulatory functions like Families Commissioner, she has a range of governance and operational experience that will give her free rein to insert ACT sensibility into TVNZ and RNZ, as well as into the research entities and their spinoffs.
6. Andrew Hoggard: Minister of Agriculture, Biosecurity, Land Information, and Export Growth
Hoggard is heavyweight local and international dairy industry leadership, both as Vice President and President of Federated Farmers and elected to the Board of the International Dairy Federation since 2020.
So with a Minister Hoggard we can expect every single one of the Howl of a Protest demands to be met including rolling back protection of remaining wetlands, reintroduction of live animal exports, killing off constraints about fecal coliforms and phosphates into streams, unfettered water take for dairy, removing price setting governance controls over Fonterra, and heading straight back into the New Zealand pattern of volume of milk solids produced rather than value and lower mass.
A Minister Hoggard will target repealing the Natural and Built Environment Act that was passed last month and replaced most of the RMA.
7. Nicole McKee: Minister of Police
A Minister of Police cannot direct the Commissioner of Police and the current Commissioner is not likely to be replaced for some time. The policy contest is in whether McKee as Minister would be faced with the day to day operational threat to Police and to citizens of the firearms New Zealand gangs are using in our towns and cities right now.
A Minister McKee will carry out ACT policy of repealing Labour’s gun laws.
She will also have a lot to do with implementing ACT’s many and exceedingly punitive law and order policies.
New Zealand has only to go back to the Shipley and Ruth Richardson to remember what scale of violence a true ideologically-driven set of ministers can do. It takes decades to repair, and it’s never ever a restoration.
ACT is the strong form of a Shipley-Richardson combination. That’s what to vote against in October.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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There could well be a lot of buyer's remorse next year if National-ACT win the election.
If the misfortune they form the next government comes to pass then perhaps the only way they'd get re elected in 2026 is if they convince enough voters that inflation easing to pre pandemic levels, assuming that occurs, is as result of National-ACT management rather than something than would happen in spite of their governance.
Mitchell is sure to be Police Minister.
Not sure which of ACT'S 2,3,or 4 will head a new ministry=The Minister of Dumb Ideas!
"Mitchell is sure to be Police Minister."
God help us! An ex-mercenary with a brain the size of a pea. He'll have the police armed to the hilt roaming the streets looking for anyone who merely looks like they might be a crim. and have them locked up in cages waiting to be processed. Look out you brown and black skinned people because you will be top of the list. You will be guilty until you prove your innocence, and not always then.
A slight exaggeration to serve as a warning.
MAGAism NZ style seems well represented by Act, Matt King’s Democracy NZ and Bishop Tamaki’s shifting array of fruitcakes.
It will be a bad business indeed for the bottom 50% of the population, and a fair few middle class people too if Act gets the opportunity to do what Advantage predicts and gives these voters a good walloping in regards to minimum wage, PPL, union rights, public transport and prescription charges–for starters!
Some people–what the…want their guns back too. Of course in practical terms confiscated and compensated for fire arms are unlikely to literally reappear. But this will be a major culture war fight starter, and a gun lobbyist as Police Minister?…
It will be a very interesting election for us dedicated politics followers–but also the start of at least three years of serious fear and loathing between fellow NZers. Will turn out plummet or the alienated revenge vote? Will Act win Tamaki or Matt King Northland? How many more Act candidates will disappear? Have the Natzos got anymore scandals lurking?
Seymour would definitely want nothing less than Deputy PM and probably also Finance and/or Treasury. His first budget might earn the nickname The Seymour Holes budget.
How about Minister of Climate Change Denial and Minister for Corporate Takeovers?
I'm sure there would be suitable candidates amongst ACT MPs
Hells Bells.
If your prophecies come to pass – to any degree – lasting damage will be done to this country, and most of its population.
I'd like to vote for a socialist party. Effectively that means TPM: Labour remind me of the UK slogan: a tory wearing a red tie is still a tory. But Labour/Greens/TPM have very little chance of forming a government. Perhaps it's time to vote strategically.
That means for NZ First.
So that Winston can do his usual bugger all, and be a handbrake.
Winston seems proud of having been a handbrake at other times, and we very much need a handbrake on ACT.
Feels totally alien to my instincts, but maybe a handbrake is better than a disaster
Don't. It's unlikely to have the effect you describe – because if you are a current left voter, changing to NZ First does not make any contribution to keeping NACT below 50%. And NACT being below 50% is a precondition for NZF being a handbrake.
There is only one narrow scenario where it might help: when NACT are below 50% but the NZF first vote being 'wasted' (i.e. under 5% and therefore discarded) sees NACT squeak above 50%.
Therefore as a left voter (presumably), voting NZF is a dumb strategy if either: NACT look like being comfortably above 50%, or NZF look like being comfortably above 5%.
Dont give it up ! Keep fighting !
If enough do that the current labour party will be decimated and it quite possibly leads to nine years of opposition and a bunch of them wrought by infighting similar to the Shearer Cunliffe years.
No one on the left should vote NZF.
They will support a National led government.
Some in the centre might … to block a destructive NACT right wing regime.
This is not the NZ First of 2017. This is Winston running as a full conspiracy theorist.
National being held hostage by both Seymour and Winston would be an utterly terrifying sight.
The truly terrifying is what they would want…and get.
We have to prevent them ever getting there.
btw for what it is worth, I heard Seymour say he will keep Matariki
He will keep Matariki, but Seymour will be wanting us to work on it for ordinary time only, and all the other public holidays too.
Hi Ad, I fear the climate created to extend working years to 70, removal of the Govt money top up to Kiwi saver, removal of worker protections, bringing in the 90 day trials again, and the contracts act, beginning a programme of publicly labelling and denigrating difference.
Consultation will become derisory, except where it is enshrined in law. Judges will again have to bring in the 3 strikes law, and youths will have no rights unless they are earning enough to make their own decisions before 25. Regimented ideas of "order" in learning, working and sport, may cause less innovation and creative problem solving.
I feel sorry for the young. Lip service will be paid to cultural difference, while pushing narrow religious beliefs, and cookie cutter success mantras. Maori renaissance will be nipped in the bud. Assimilation will be the norm.
Bloody sad, as we are coming out of covid well and laying sustainability shoots. imo.
There will be blood and tears of regret as people translate austerity and cut backs into job losses and community destruction all over again. imo
@ Patricia,
The public service will be cut back to such an extent that multiple community services will be axed or: they will hand these services over to private enterprises who will charge the 'customers', meaning the very people who need them will be unable to afford them. It'll be done by way of stealth… one step at a time so that the users will not realise what is happening until its too late.
And don't be surprised if there is another attempt to totally destroy the unions. Luxon is copying the Muldoon playbook and unfortunately the majority of the population either were not born or were too young to know what happened during that regime and the massive amount of strife it caused. Or they immigrated to NZ well after the regime came to an end.
yes I agree. Social Housing will be the first hit, along with Education and Health. All areas they can profit from.
Aye Patricia. Well summed. I am worried about all that. If they gain control…NZ will be transported back….to the actual bad old days. I had to work through all of the "employment contracts act" and its punitive ramifications.
Was a very..hard time. Those criticising Labour now…I wonder if they actually had to do any of that ?
Still ..keep up the Fight !
The majority of NZers have no idea what went on in the 70s and 80s. It shows time and again from the so-called media celebrities. They don't have a clue.
There was the Vietnam War protests which attracted a lot of state interventions. That was followed by the anti-apartheid protests which were even bigger and attracted even more attention by the state under the Muldoon administration. That culminated in the horrific violence during the 1981 Springbok tour. It came from all sides. How nobody was killed was a miracle.
Then we had the anti-nuclear protests which culminated in the Rainbow Warrior bombing. That incident occurred under the Lange government but had its genesis under the Muldoon regime.
The level of hatred and paranoia throughout that time was so high it split families and caused a lot of people to be subjected to serious harassment and intimidation.
An ugly time in danger of being repeated by a NAct government albeit for different reasons.
Edit: And that does not include the Erebus tragedy which saw some extremely dubious activity during its aftermath.
Yea Anne ! I know some of it…( I'm also a History reader ) but the lack of Interest in…and just general apathy is quite disturbing. This from people I try to engage on Politics with. Sadly..they would gain so much..by actually voting !
Also how the F have ACT gained so much ? (altho I still hope there will be a Green surge?)
re some of what you say…I did put a comment for you as well
Please take that as some acknowledgement…
The 90 day trials would almost certainly be reinstated – it's National policy, and ACT aren't going to disagree.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496806/national-confirms-it-would-reinstate-90-day-trials
National are on record for wanting an extension of the retirement age to 67 – but not kicking in until 2040 or so (sorry don't have the exact date to hand).
ACT have proposed a gradual increment to that age – of 2 months per year. So would kick in progressively, over 12 years.
https://www.act.org.nz/time_to_face_reality_on_super_age
No one is talking about 70. And I'd see this as incredibly unlikely. All governments (and potential governments) have been very wary over waking the sleeping dragon on this one.
Australia is talking 70. They are now at 67. So creep is likely here. Last time National moved the age 5 years in 9 years, from 60 to 65.
The Nats in 2017….
Actual physical Workers ( I can relate..)
The Nats have already floated this. IMO ACT will drive it.
It's not floated – it's National Party policy.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/06/political-parties-remain-split-on-raising-retirement-age/
It's hardly 'creep' if it's an announced policy.
People know what they're voting for.
Act proposing Confidence without Supply?
Unstable government no thankyou.
The cookers and crooks party with the sign off on every cent National wants to spend.
Oh joy!
ACT is the strong form of a Shipley-Richardson combination. That’s what to vote against in October
… And Shipley is hardly a poster-girl for good governance given the courts ruling on Mainzeal.
… Last we (Standardistas) heard from Richardson she was feeling sorry for the poor and proposing a strategy to help them. Gulp…
Help them?
The poor will be able to help the government with an amazing new food product…..Soylent Green
Ha ha, yes, except the quaint movies that are screening at the clinic is Christopher Luxon on the campaign trail.
Luckily the Act candidates are dropping like flies 5 in two months. He will have to start painting out faces on the pink bus.
Convincing people that voting for a left group will
keep the jobs and training council, (even business wants this)
keep environmental progress towards sustainability and producing and manufacturing more of what we need, (New arcing furnace to recycle steel is a beginning)
and best of all strengthen communities with resilience in housing transport work and education. (Involve communities in their hubs)
Keeping more of Aotearoa New Zealand for our own lives, rather than enhancing the lives of the hugely rich, who might drop in and out as it pleases them (via helicopter.)
We live here, and don't want to end up tenants with little economic power and few choices.
This opposition Nat/Act who have demanded the Government be transparent, has covered up two reports on members actions by with holding a report and also minimising impacts. A. Uffindel and B Kruriger. Is that our future? Backroom decisions?
The current govts not exactly transparent and doing Nacts job for them.
http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2023/09/more-anti-protest-law-from-labour.html?m=1
We are discussing hypothetical situation here. We are very well on track to get a Labour-Green-TPM government supported by NZ First on cross benches. So don't sweat on a National-ACT governement. Freshwater Strategy and Talbot Mills polls show no majority for National-ACT.
MAD Magazine rang…crACT….they want Alfred' ..back..
What we will get if ACT gets into power.
Inflation at 18%
Home lending rates at 16% plus.
That's what we had under the Rogernome government, and ACT was founded by Rogernomes.
It will happen again and National will shrug its shoulders and pretend not to notice.
DV linked to Seymour's Housing policies here
10 September 2023 at 4:35 pm
The 'wide boys' will be back………hope Nats think it is better to go with NZF than ACT or put a tight lid on the recycled neo-lib trash that is seen in the ACT Housing policy. It reads like Prebble and Douglas ride again.
The 12 kilometre drive down the Raetihi Ohakune Road from Raetihi to Ohakune is a frankly depressing sight for anyone on the centre left. Every farmer's field bar one sports an ACT billboard seven in total. The exception is a National board. Rather than opining how awful ACT will be why not instead examine how we got here. I know most of the farmers they are my neighbours, none of them could tell you who Ayn Rand was and none of them are racists or poor stewards of their land. Some in fact even voted Labour as I did. What changed and induced the rush Ito the arms of ACT was the changes Labour brought about with, first freshwater legislation, and then the RMA and Three Waters.
If the freshwater legislation was a harbinger of things to come it proved to be the canary in the coal mine for most farmers. The change was in the winter grazing rules. To apply for a change of use for winter grazing you now had to effectively first seek the consent of your local iwi to make an application before approaching your regional authority. I attended the rollout that Horizons Regional Council undertook locally. Farmers at the meeting for the most part simply wanted to know the process. What happened in practice was essentially a clusterfuck. Iwi were unprepared and unsupported by central government. Which left farmers in some cases having their enquiries completely ignored or getting what can only be described as an impolite response. This part of the legislation has now been shelved for the time being but it set the scene for responses to Three Waters and the RMA reforms. If this is what is meant by co-governance most quite sensibly don't want a bar of it. Most people don't know ACT's economic policies from a bar of soap. But they do know that ACT supports rule based governance that is open transparent and democratic.