An early election in 2011?

20 comments on “An early election in 2011? ”

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1. Zaphod Beeblebrox 1

   2 June 2010 at 2:43 pm

   Key, Joyce and English are hardly risk takers and early elections are always risky. Winter makes people cranky so do governments wh are seen as opportunitic. People tend to think you have something hide. I also doubt the economy will have shown many signs of recovery in 8-9 months time.

   Don’t agree with Farrar on much but I do on this one.
   • Bunji 1.1

     2 June 2010 at 4:23 pm

     I disagree with your reasoning, but agree with your conclusion…

     They will got after the World Cup precisely because Key is a risk-taker (he made his living as effectively a professional gambler after all). Gambling on not just the tournament making us feel good, but that given more time his government will have magically made the country better despite their policies that aid inequality, and fail to even deliver their promised growth.

     captcha: merits – what this government is lacking.
     • Rich 1.1.1

       2 June 2010 at 8:12 pm

       How will it affect National’s chances when the French boot us out in the semis.

       Or will Key promise to get drop-kicks banned if re-elected?
       • Pascal's bookie 1.1.1.1

         2 June 2010 at 8:15 pm

         Deny visas to english refs.
2. Fisiani 2

   2 June 2010 at 3:54 pm

   Your comments on weather affecting election outcomes have been comprehensively debunked.
   No matter when the election is held in 2011 don’t blame the weather for another Labour defeat.
   • lprent 2.1

     2 June 2010 at 9:11 pm

     Cite a credible reference (ie not kiwiblog) showing that for NZ.

     All of the evidence that I’ve seen in NZ for the two early elections during my voting history (and the subsequent elections while we head back to November elections) says that there is a marked effect when you look at turnout amongst eligible voters.

     I’ve even seen it in the electorates I’ve dealt with after the 2002 early election.

     Basically I suspect you are just spinning your usual line of bullshit.
     • Lanthanide 2.1.1

       2 June 2010 at 10:47 pm

       I really despair about the crap that Fisiani spouts. It disturbs me to think that someone could honestly believe the tripe he comes out with, or alternatively that someone would deliberately spout it while not believing it hoping that they could influence others. I’m sure that sort of thing goes on, and works, all the time at kiwiblog, but the audience here is obviously much less receptive.
3. sweetd 3

   2 June 2010 at 3:57 pm

   I thought govts. that went early were generally punished at the polls. I think the election will be held in the ‘normal’ period, that is end part of 2011.
   • gingercrush 3.1

     2 June 2010 at 11:00 pm

     That’s what people believe. They’ll cite 2002 and point to Clark and Labour being at 50% and then not being close to that. Personally, I think that’s mostly bullshit. She was destined to win. National were awful. Labour voters in South Auckland felt safe many right-wing voters stayed at home. Maybe they Labour were punished but I don’t really buy that myself.

     I also don’t believe the weather caused that low turnout. That low turnout can easily be explained by a party everyone knew would govern. An opposition party destined to fail that election cycle. An ordinary campaign by Labour and a horror one by National made it a certainty turnout would be low. I don’t know enough about any other early election. But certainly 2002 is a poor election to use for an example of a government being punished nor as an example people don’t like voting in winter.

     But that’s just my opinion.
4. Santi 4

   2 June 2010 at 4:10 pm

   You mean Farrar has not been paid yet by National to disclose the date. Wait. he will.
5. Bunji 5

   2 June 2010 at 4:15 pm

   “The late announcement of a change to the traditional three-month period for regulating election spending”

   I’m sorry, this seems to have slipped by, and seems shockingly dangerous. A search for information came across a single short Herald article, noting the change as a late announcement.

   With no retrospective period, why wouldn’t a government start its campaign 2 or 3 weeks before announcing the election, and thus be allowed a much larger amount of spending and coverage than other parties? Surely the 3 month period was to defend against this?

   Why has the opposition not been crying foul?

   I note that the bill is currently receiving submissions. I think this needs to be protested against – make sure you have your say.
   • Graeme Edgeler 5.1

     5 June 2010 at 9:17 am

     The opposition has not been crying foul because they agreed to it – likely for two reasons:

     1. A retrospective period is fundamentally wrong in principle.
     2. There is going to be a (sensible) change to Parliamentary service spending rules, prohibiting any communications during the regulated period with Parliamentary money. If there was a retrospective regulated period, parties would be paying a whole lot of money back!
6. mickysavage 6

   2 June 2010 at 5:46 pm

   There should be eternal vigilance of the spending by the third parties. If this goes up in the first part of next year then it is likely that Mike’s prediction will come to pass.
7. IrishBill 7

   2 June 2010 at 6:19 pm

   July makes sense. There’s not only the danger of losing the cup but the increasingly likely chance of an infrastructure fiasco.

   The nat’s will also be concerned about poll slippage. Labour’s poor performance has been a gift to them but it may not keep on giving until October next year.
8. ianmac 8

   2 June 2010 at 8:18 pm

   Though the adage that Governments loose rather than Opposition winning is why it is important to keep searching the chinks like constantly tongueing that sore tooth!
9. Kiwi Poll Guy 9

   2 June 2010 at 8:27 pm

   “David Farrar on Kiwiblog has downplayed the idea, and suggested November 26 as the likely date, but hasn’t told us whether he has put money on it in iPredict.”

   At the moment iPredict are not running stocks on the date of the NZ election. Perhaps you should recommend them?
10. EminenceGrise 10

    2 June 2010 at 10:08 pm

    Keep an eye on the global economy. If it tanks, all bets are off.
11. Heidi 11

    3 June 2010 at 10:52 am

    I don’t get people who know about the contents of Roger’s book Unfinished Business and still paint him as the enemy of the working poor.

    I am in a low-income household and would implement the whole lot tomorrow if it were up to me.
    • Sam 11.1

      4 June 2010 at 12:44 am

      If you think Douglas’ ideas are any more than hocus pocus clap trap designed to screw anyone by the mega wealth you are deluded.

      Read something that was written by someone without dementia. Or better yet, someone with some basic understanding of economics.

Links to post

1. Electoral Reform Needs Fixing « The Standard: posted on 5 June 2010 at 8:33 am

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