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And the final result is …

Written By: - Date published: 2:10 pm, October 7th, 2017 - 204 comments
Categories: act, election 2017, greens, labour, national, nz first, Politics, same old national - Tags:

The final election results have been released.  Pontifications and guesses can now cease although someone should do an analysis of all the shyte some commentators said and show how wrong they were.

I put up a post three years ago where I predicted that the Greens would get an extra MP at National’s expense.  I had a look at the results from the previous election and following up a suggestion from Swordfish (dang he is good) saw that there was a healthy bounce back for the left after specials.  Then looking at the number of special votes and extrapolating I thought the chance of an extra Green MP at National’s expense was pretty good.  And so it happened.

This time there has been some serious number crunching going on.  The basic premise, that people wanting to vote left tend to be young and less organised than those who vote right is a correct one.  And this time there has been a huge number of special votes to be counted, no doubt many by people enrolling for the first time and voting at the same time.

And so it came to pass that the final results were revealed and they showed a gain for the left of two MPs, one for Labour and one for the Greens at National’s expense.

This is a significant change.  On election night results Labour+NZ First+Greens formed only a bare majority.  Thanks to puppet party ACT and National’s Epsom gerrymander the right had the advantage.  The following table sets out the extent of the change.

2017 Analysis
 Election night Election night %  Final Final % Change
National  998,813 46.03%  1,152,075 44.45% -1.58%
Labour  776,556 35.79%  956,184 36.89% 1.10%
Greens  126,995 5.85%  162,443 6.27% 0.41%
NZ First  162,998 7.51%  186,706 7.20% -0.31%
ACT  10,959 0.51%  13,075 0.50% 0.00%
Total  2,169,802  2,591,896

And now a Labour/Green/NZ First Government would have an operational majority.  One that could sustain the loss of a couple of MPs and given the septic nature of Parliament this is always something that has to be factored in.

And the way the negotiations are going could be telling.  National is showing signs of desperation and a willingness to sacrifice anyone and anything to regain power.  But I am getting the strong impression that a decade of National abusing and denigrating Winston is going to make him turn left.

We live in interesting times …

204 comments on “And the final result is …”

  1. Cinny 1

    More people voted for a change of government than to keep the status quo.

    MMP for the win 😀 Congratulations to our two new MP’s.

  2. lprent 2

    That was annoying – the proxy server overloaded…

    • Cinny 2.1

      Sounds like the proxy was as excited as we are 😀 Good work Iprent for sorting it fast.

      • Red 2.1.1

        Hope our bet still stands cinny 😀

        • Cinny 2.1.1.1

          Far out, hard case as Red, you’ve been away for some time.

          Absolutely it stands, but it looks like we will have to wait till Thursday for it to happen. Does that sound fair?

    • weka 2.2

      Was that a sharp increase at 2pm in people accessing the site?

      • lprent 2.2.1

        Oh yeah. I saw it go from 37 humans online to 300+ humans online over the course of 6 minutes immediately after I put up the notice in OpenMike.

        Then I think that this post posted and the traffic from the bots, facebook, twitter, and the like all piled in on top.

        • lprent 2.2.1.1

          I should have added that I was at work checking on a test for a memory leak in the work code that I set up last night.

          Had a rapid drive home to see what had died..

        • Jum 2.2.1.2

          Yep, people tend to go to a place they can trust to tell them the truth.

      • DSpare 2.2.2

        I was reading Open Mike when I noticed the time was just after 2pm and the site just froze when I tried to go to the main menu. As Cinny says: Good work Iprent for sorting it fast.

    • Once was Tim 2.3

      I noticed that – connection lost in the middle of a submission. Which Btw @lprent sometimes means when the sub eventually takes, the heirarchy is lost.
      No such thing as perfection though eh?

      ANd as I post this, Weka’s thoughts are visible. Gawd! The state of our MSM is truly trajic: “RNZ just had their commenter saying that while unlikely the Greens could still consider going with National.”
      Do they just function on verbiage and word count these days?
      And where do we send condolence cards and emails to most of the Press Gallery members?, or the AM Show. Newshub and others are easy. It’s firstname.lastname@mediaworks.co.nz as it is with others. But how about Matty Dear?
      So as a non-pundit, it’s the choice between a National/NZF gummint that’ll be unable to progress the agenda driven by the worst of their members/numb – bers, OR Labour/NZ1/Greens where there is room for a range of compromises that could see all of them relatively happy – whether health, housing, regional development, immigration, “tipping over the trough” and just about everything else they have a mutual concern

      • greywarshark 2.3.1

        I think that spelling that Once was Tim used is just spot on – he has invested the word tragic with modernity so it looks even more intense when spelt ‘Trajic’.

        People could write column, opinion pieces, books even, ruminating over the past years of neo-liberal lies, artful dodger subterfuges, financial finagling, interspersed with cuts to everything and increasing penury for half of the population as The Trajic Years. You heard it here first folks.

  3. weka 3

    Pontifications and guesses can now cease although someone should do an analysis of all the shyte some commentators said and show how wrong they were.

    Not quite. We’ve got another week of this 😉

    RNZ just had their commenter saying that while unlikely the Greens could still consider going with National. 🙄

    • weka 3.1

      exhibit 2,

    • Tracey 3.2

      Good. God.

      Then English and that well known best friend of the Greens, Paula Bennett, need to start taking concrete concessions to the Greens instead of waiting for the Greens to coming running into their arms…

      As for the “shock” reported by the Herald. WTF!?! Is it a shock cos they were typing through tear riddled eyes

    • Such pontifications raise the question of just which world the pontificators are living in. The real one or Planet key?

  4. Barfly 4

    can someone tell me what the totals would have been if National didn’t gift Epson to ACT?

  5. One Anonymous Bloke 5

    Good result.

    The demographics won’t be available ’til next Friday, so the ‘youthquake’ question will remain unsettled for another week.

    Turnout increased from 2014 though – always said to favour the Left.

    Can a few National supporters tell us how they’re feeling right now? We could all use a laugh.

    • weka 5.1

      Maybe they want to have a look at this first 🙂

      Centre right, final numbers

      (Nat+Act+UF+Cons)

      2008: 49.45%

      2011: 51.63%

      2014: 51.92%

      2017: 45.2%

      https://twitter.com/gregjrobins/status/916470241672097792

      • Bearded Git 5.1.1

        Good post weka

      • David C 5.1.2

        and Lab plus Greens 08/11/14/17 is..

        41 41 38 43

        so what did Taxcinda achieve exactly?

        Get Labour back to where Shearer had them?

        • weka 5.1.2.1

          She helped increase the left vote if your numbers are anything to go by.

        • Barfly 5.1.2.2

          really that’s all you have?

          lololol

          must suck to be a RW fanboy right now huh?

        • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1.2.3

          She upset you.

          Who knows, Labour might even get my vote next time for that alone.

        • Incognito 5.1.2.4

          In which election did Shearer lead Labour again?

        • swordfish 5.1.2.5

          David C

          and Lab plus Greens 08/11/14/17 is..

          41 41 38 43

          Nope

          Lab+Green

          2008 40.7
          2011 38.5
          2014 35.8
          2017 43.2

          Not sure why you’ve .inflated 2011 & 2014

          David C

          so what did Taxcinda achieve exactly?

          Get Labour back to where Shearer had them?

          Nope

          Shearer had ’em at 29-34% when he stood down (final 2 Polls = 31-32%)
          Jacinda has ’em on 37%

          • nzsage 5.1.2.5.1

            I love it when supposed incontrovertible facts are destroyed by incontrovertible facts.

    • infused 5.2

      Nothings changed. I’m hoping for a L+G+NZF govt.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 5.2.1

        A wish predicated on the notion that any such government will be dysfunctional.

        …and that nagging feeling that they might turn out to be adults and capable of working together. Happy days.

  6. newsense 6

    how much would it have taken for Labour to gain one more seat?

    • Bearded Git 6.1

      That is what I was thinking-TOP cost the Left a seat.

    • RedBaronCV 6.2

      make a hard to refuse job offer of somewhere overseas to Nick Smith?

      • Cinny 6.2.1

        Mr Nick… i invite nat supporters to ask patsy questions of me while claiming they live just around the corner, at my st corner meetings.. Smith. True story.

    • DSpare 6.4

      The “spreadsheet dystopia” linked to in yesterday’s post had that possibility at a Labour party vote of 37.13% (or 45.45% of the specials). But that was under the; technically possible but surprising, section. They were spot on with the second of their two main predictions:

      https://cutyourhair.wordpress.com/2017/10/04/realistic-possibilities-for-parliament-post-specials-all-two-of-them/

    • Compass Rose 6.5

      12% more than national in the special votes (see link) .Congratulations to Angie Warren-Clark in Bay of Plenty. She deserves this. 79.6% increase in party votes for the electorate in 2017 vs 2014. Great result. Let’s do this!

      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11929498

    • Paul Campbell 6.6

      my (very) rough numbers: about 10,000 votes – about half a seat – the Greens are only about 2000 votes from their next, and Winnie came within about 1400 votes of losing one – the nats are closer to losing another than Winnie

      (not done using the magic seat assigning rules that take into account act’s overhang, just done with averages)

      I’d guess the next change if the left votes had come out a little higher would have been another seat from the nats to the greens

    • Bearded Git 6.7

      I’ve got Labour at 46.46 seats…….46 .51 gives 47 seats ….recount anyone?

    • Craig H 6.8

      Depends on where they come from, but 5000 votes from National to Labour would have done it, assuming no other changes.

    • Incognito 6.9

      By my calculations 9,069 additional votes.

    • how much would it have taken for Labour to gain one more seat?

      It would have taken National not to mount a smear campaign of lies, which would be a pretty big ask. Mind you, if that remarkably unlikely event had come to pass, there would have been a lot more than one seat in it…

      • Sanctuary 6.10.1

        Labour didn’t do well in South Auckland and there was a swing to National in West Auckland. Those were an out-and-out resoundingly selfish vote from the legions of newly minted paper millionaires for continuing the housing ponzi scheme, and to hell with everyone and everything else.

        The housing bubble was really what held up National’s vote and cost Labour extra seats. Like I’ve said before, i know a pot smoking, ultra urban liberal green voting couple who purchased a very modest Glenfield propery at the height of the market for an insane amount and they immediately switched their vote to National.

        Never underestimate to power of self-interest over altruism when people get inside the voting booth.

        • Carolyn_nth 6.10.1.1

          An yet, in New Lynn and Te Atatu Labour increased its proportion of votes – both west Auckland areas undergoing gentrification.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 6.10.1.2

          Are they in negative equity territory yet?

        • Thinkerr 6.10.1.3

          Depending on their mortgage situation, they maybe ship-scared of the property market reverting to its natural level, devouring their equity faster than the Nats can consume their coalition partners, and maybe leaving them owing more than their house is worth.

          Despite knowing that they were voting for more of an economy that works against them.

  7. ianmac 7

    John Rougham will continue to argue that we will have a Government of “losers” and that National are the winners. Huh!

    • Cinny 7.1

      Cracks me up how for some it’s just a blue/red competition, especially those who are interested in politics and have lived in FPP in the past, they completely miss the whole point of the MMP system. It’s like they’ve been brainwashed or something.

      Really looking forward to the reality of having a PM and coalition government that we can be proud of.

      • Paul Campbell 7.1.1

        Yes – and the part that’s about to happen, where the MPs elected by the people now try to find compromises that can be made so that more than 50% of the people are represented in the govt is arguably as important as the actual vote …

        Remember when we had FPP and the govt governed with 30-40% of the vote, or even with fewer votes than the opposition … I do my vote for neither of the 2 main parties meant that under FPP, before MMP, I was never ever represented in parliament

        • Cinny 7.1.1.1

          Am so hearing you Paul, have only voted once under FPP, it was the election/MMP referendum, MMP is so much fairer, needs a few tweaks but it’s without a doubt a much better representation of voters voices.

        • ianmac 7.1.1.2

          I was living in a very staunch National Electorate a long time ago under FPP.
          So who will I vote for? The least likely candidate was a Communist one. So just for fun, I voted for him, not realising that the booth results were published.
          My booth 247 =National.
          Labour = 27
          Communist =1
          Dark looks came my way.

    • Ed 7.2

      They are panicking.

  8. mosa 8

    If you add the votes cast for Lab-Grn-NZF it is 1.305 million beating National- ACT 1.165 million.

    That is a majority of votes cast against the status quo.

    And that is a possible government with a working majority.

    Five days to go.

    • mlpc 8.1

      Yes and an even bigger majority against the socialist alternative.

      • tracey 8.1.1

        Dont use angry epithets, it upsets Wayne.

      • Except that NZ1st, a Conservative party along the lines of Muldoon’s National, is ‘socialist’ compared to today’s National.

        • ianmac 8.1.2.1

          @ Draco. It was said back then that Muldoon was at heart a socialist where Rowling was said to be more Right than Muldoon and yet the policies were so more Right.

      • left_forward 8.1.3

        Go the socialist alternative – arm in arm with the centrist alternative.

      • tracey 8.1.4

        That is like calling Nats/NZF the facist alternative

      • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.5

        Beware the Socialist bogeyman, eh? Be afraid that the ways of Sir Michael Cullen might once again sully the hallowed halls of cronyism and incompetence. Weep and cower in terror at the depredations of well-resourced public service. Leave a huge hole in the market as your Ponzi-scheme race to the bottom slum-lord Talley paradise falls apart.

        Watch and learn (and whinge and wail and be the object of ridicule) as ethical operators school your sorry ass.

      • DoublePlusGood 8.1.6

        Wait, there’s a socialist party in New Zealand?

  9. Peter 9

    First Past the Post, two party , thinking from Bill English:

    “Voters had a clear choice at the election between the two major parties that had a realistic prospect of leading the next government.
    They signalled very clearly that they wanted National to perform that role and we will now get on with the job of trying to give effect to their wishes.”

  10. RedBaronCV 10

    The left could give Winston say a 9 month term as Prime Minister- after all he’s been looking after the country for nigh on 40 years ?

  11. veutoviper 11

    Fantastic result!

    The special votes ended up totalling 442,094 which is an astonishing 17% of the total.
    As full results etc are still not up on the Elections website, on a quick rough calculation:

    National picked up 153,262 special votes – 36.31% of total special votes
    Labour ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,179,628 ………………………42.56%
    NZF ………………………….23,718…………………………5.62%
    Greens …………….. ……35,448,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,8.398%
    Act……………………………..2,116………………………….0.50%

    PS – have not double checked above, but Labour and the Greens may indeed have benefited from a youth quake.

    • Paul Campbell 11.1

      yes looks like Lab/Grn took more than 50% of the specials between them

    • veutoviper 11.2

      Just to correct/clarify my figures – the 442,094 should read 422,094 and is the total of National, Labour, NZF, Green, and ACT votes. It is not the full total of special votes.

      According to the Electoral Commission statement “There were 446,287 special votes, or 17 percent of the total number of votes. That includes 61,524 overseas votes.’

    • DSpare 11.3

      veutoviper
      I’d add to your calculations (increasing from 2.4 to 2.6% – so three MPs if there was a 2% threshold) :
      TOP…………………… 15,243 …………….. 3.49%

      • veutoviper 11.3.1

        Fair enough. That’s a high percentage for TOP, so the specials were important to them also.

  12. repateet 12

    13,075 votes for Act. The education system they rubbish evidently only turns out a very small percentage of those who are really stupid.

  13. weka 13

    This one’s interesting (someone can check the numbers). If half of TOP’s vote had gone to the Greens, the GP would have an extra MP and National would have one less MP. This would put National on 55 and L/G on 55.

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0.50&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Ban1080&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative&partyVote_3=0&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=7.50&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Internet+Party&partyVote_6=0&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Labour+Party&partyVote_7=36.90&electorateSeats_7=29&partyName_8=MANA&partyVote_8=0&electorateSeats_8=0&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=1.20&electorateSeats_9=0&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=44.40&electorateSeats_10=41&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=7.20&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=New+Zealand+People%E2%80%99s+Party&partyVote_12=0&electorateSeats_12=0&partyName_13=NZ+Outdoors+Party&partyVote_13=0&electorateSeats_13=0&partyName_14=The+Opportunities+Party+%28TOP%29&partyVote_14=1.20&electorateSeats_14=0&partyName_15=United+Future&partyVote_15=0&electorateSeats_15=0&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=0.50&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=16&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats

    • Roy 13.1

      Which really makes you wonder, doesn’t it. A billionaire who knows what’s best for everyone else splitting the vote and weakening progress yet again. Thanks a bunch Gareth.

      • weka 13.1.1

        I was also thinking about left wing voters who party voted TOP.

        It’s a tricky one, because MMP should be encouraging small parties to start up. We want better representation. But I agree the money is an issue. Also an issue is the mess that was debate around TOP. We didn’t seem to get passed the superficial much.

    • Andre 13.2

      Yeah, but even if you add TOPs entire vote to Labour/Greens, it still wouldn’t have given them a majority. Winnie would still be kingmaker.

      • weka 13.2.1

        I was thinking more about the loss of another Green MP (in this case Mojo Mathers). But sure, in a closer election 1 MP might make a difference, in a less close one it doesn’t.

        haven’t done the numbers yet on what would happen if TOP got 5% or the threshold was 2%, but keep thinking that they’d be happy to go with National.

        • Graeme 13.2.1.1

          For TOP to have gone with National, but they would have been leaving most of their policy platform at the door. Their Capital Tax policy would be an anathema to National for a start. However it would have slotted in perfectly with Labour’s tax review.

          Terry Baucher had a very good piece on The Spinoff yesterday about CGT reform which included TOP’s ideas as a possible alternative solution. https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/07-10-2017/could-a-nz-capital-gains-tax-ever-become-a-reality/

          • weka 13.2.1.1.1

            Sure, if it were a choice between Labour and National. But what if it were a choice between National and a new election?

            • Graeme 13.2.1.1.1.1

              How did you get from a Labour / National choice to a National / new election one? We’ve never been there (in-conclusive election), and are nowhere near that now.

              I think any party that precipitated a new election now would get hammered by the electorate, so it would be very unlikely.

              • weka

                Yes, this is my point. Left wing people voting for TOP could enable TOP to help National form govt. e.g.

                N 60

                TOP 3

                L/G 57

                I am fairly certain in that case Morgan would choose National. This is the point of centrist parties, it’s what Morgan and TOP campaigned on and there is plenty of evidence that Morgan would be happy with either party i.e. he’s not just positioning pre-election for post-election leveraging, I think he would be genuinely happy with working with National.

          • Andre 13.2.1.1.2

            In some of my moments given to musing further-out-there ideas, I wonder if Morgan is pushing the CCT to make a regular realisation-based CGT look much more reasonable and implementable when the debate finally happens.

            • Graeme 13.2.1.1.2.1

              Yeah, I’ve wondered that as well, and it’s a very valid part of the debate around capital taxation. We have to consider all the possibilities, including the really radical options.

              TOP’s Capital Tax would have been great in a ‘clean sheet, perfect world” sense, and that was where a lot of their ideas came from. Absolutely nothing wrong with that and a valid way of considering new and different ideas, but the practical and political difficulties are in getting from here to there are interesting and would cause problems.

              But these are all issues to be debated in the up-coming taxation review. I hope TOP make detailed and significant submissions to this, and continue their public profile through this term.

    • mauī 13.3

      It would be very interesting to see a breakdown of who TOP voters voted for in 2014. Hopefully we get those stats at some point.

      • weka 13.3.1

        True. I’d love to see decent research done on all parties. I did see something like 3/4 of TOP supporters being left wing voters, but don’t remember the source or how they came to that %.

        • JanM 13.3.1.1

          Is this a case for lowering the 5% bar do you think?

          • weka 13.3.1.1.1

            I used to be in favour of lowering the threshold, then TOP happened 😉

            I’ll come round again, because we can factor in the Mp, Mana etc too. We should probably lower it to what is needed to get 1 MP. Or maybe 2?

            • weka 13.3.1.1.1.1

              Back of envelope calculation. If we had a threshold that allowed 1 MP, ACT would be gone this time and we’d have 2 TOP MPs and 1 Mp MP.

              However, it’s likely that if that were the case, there’d be more party votes for ACT coming from National. I’d guess more left wing votes would go to TOP.

      • bwaghorn 13.3.2

        this one voted labour the last two elections

  14. Eco maori 14

    Thankqs to all my fellow left blogger on this site we all have contributed to this major political shift for the better of our beautiful Country I can hear the joy of all OUR happy people in Rotirua .But the fight is still on for OUR Earth Kia kaha.

  15. Paul Campbell 15

    I sent my daughter in Oz a thank you note today for her special vote

  16. CHCOff 16

    In these circumstances the Greens should be a pretty solid coalition partner to NZF. They can’t afford any inter party politicking as that would obliterate their remaining electoral support base if seen to bring down a non National government and they also have every incentive to show their merits in a stable coalition govt outside their support base, so it would be a big win for them being able to demonstrate that to the outside electorate vote. The only issue that the Greens could potentially bring to the table this way would be if they messed up something badly, and they would undoubtedly be targeted as abit of an achilles heel in such a government arrangement so some pragmatism would be needed.

    The only type of potential problems with Labour to NZF would be that of peripheral side shows with random Lab m.ps being drummed up, so that side of stuff would need to be sorted.

    Potential problems to a NZF & National coalition are too numerous and complicated to get into, and mutual greasing the wheels with golden handshakes and perks of the job would be required to try and ride out that term once things got into stride.

  17. lurgee 17

    Well, Winston, we’re waiting. Get a move on.

    • left_forward 17.1

      Yeah, Let’s do this.

    • Cinny 17.2

      Yes please because for reals we’ve “Had Enough” so please “Let’s do This” because we “Love NZ” as the people of NZ have indicated by turning out in droves to vote for the opposition parties

      We want and need change please, and thank you.
      MMP 😀 So grateful for our system. Thank you NZ for turning out to vote

  18. Craig H 18

    Congratulations to Dr Megan Woods, as Wigram tipped party vote Labour on the specials (on election night, it was National).

  19. The Real Matthew 19

    You’ve got to love the left.

    Right Parties (National + ACT) – 44.95%
    Left Parties (Labour + Greens) – 43.16%

    The people have voted for change. Yeah Right!!

    • lprent 19.1

      NZ First and TOP were both voting for change, and even the (probably) recently deceased Maori Party were (reluctantly?) before the election.

      You can of course add the Conservative vote to the ‘Right parties. I don’t think anyone else would want them.

      • weka 19.1.1

        Every 3 years I’m trying to figure out where ALCP fit in.

        • Graeme 19.1.1.1

          Somewhere just above ACT, along with Ban1080 and the Cons

          • weka 19.1.1.1.1

            Less than ACT I think but I was meaning where their vote would go if ALCP didn’t exist. Hard to understand why they didn’t vote GP this time given the Greens have an active legalise policy.

            • Graeme 19.1.1.1.1.1

              You right about ALCP’s vote, they only got 0.3% this time and 0.46% in 2014. I thought they did a bit better than that.

              I’ve always taken their supporters (albeit a very small sample) as being right wing, small / anti govt. types. And quite self centred. So probably not a natural constituency for Green Party.

              • weka

                That makes sense. I guess people who are either in favour of the left or neutral are already voting Green if legalisation is their priority. One would hope.

      • The Real Matthew 19.1.2

        If NZ First was a vote for change why are they negotiating with National to form a government?

        • Ed 19.1.2.1

          Do you understand MMP?

        • Stuart Munro 19.1.2.2

          Spite! 😀

        • lprent 19.1.2.3

          Perhaps you should be less of a lazy idiot and read the previous conversation. There were two paths to change discussed, and on the whole I suspect that many if not most National members would prefer the choice where he goes with Labour and the Greens. Then they may have a chance to have their party in government sometime in the decade instead of National losing their membership, support, and money.

    • Cinny 19.2

      Matthew,
      Percentage of the vote that the opposition parties received compared to the parties that were in government last term?

    • Ed 19.3

      Why did Winston’s billboards say “Had Enough”?
      If that’s a bit hard for you to work out, I’ll help you out. He campaigned for change.

      • BM 19.3.1

        No one knows what Peters definition of change actually is, has anyone got Winston on record stating he wants to get rid of the current government?

        Change Government or change how National is currently running the country?

        My view is that Peters preference would be to change how National runs the show, less immigration and tightening up on the way foreigners operate within the NZ economy.

        But If he can’t get the necessary change he’s after he’ll go Lab/Green.

        • Ed 19.3.1.1

          You are desperate and splitting hairs.
          Clearly change to the status quo I.e. a wretched National government.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 19.3.1.2

          Who can tell? In any case, surely National has some leverage over him now they’ve got access to all his pension details and so-on. Probably looked at his health records too.

          You have nothing to worry about. Except maybe your power shares and precious ISDS clauses.

          • Ed 19.3.1.2.1

            And your rental properties.

            • Alan 19.3.1.2.1.1

              and by extension everyone who rents should be worried

              • Ed

                Only if National gets in.
                A toughening up of the present law and some new regulations should deal to the rentier class.

                • Alan

                  think it through Ed

                  • Ed

                    I sense you are panicking.
                    Your free lunch is over.

                    • Alan

                      your reasonable rent is over

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      The rent is set by the market, Alan. Price it out of range and that’s what’s called “a gap in the market”.

                    • greg

                      i have a vision panicked speculators running for the exit all at the same time POP. and no buyers at fantasy island prices

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    I thought it through. The banks end up owning all the houses and then selling them at knock-down prices to people who’ll still need tenants?

                    Meanwhile, in the event of a housing emergency (such as the one we are now facing), some might have to be forfeit for, y’know, housing.

                    Is someone going to short the housing market? Spell it out for us Alan.

                    • greg

                      i have a vision panicked speculators running for the exit all at the same time POP no more hot money

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Why? It’s the National Party that will leave them at the mercy of the market slum lords.

                Also, define “worried” – what exactly do you see happening? Some sort of market failure? The houses will all disappear?

        • lprent 19.3.1.3

          Change Government or change how National is currently running the country?

          Bearing in mind the way that the dear little spoilt adults (large children) known as National supporters tend to react to the idea of any real change, I’d say that your point is rather moot. He campaigned on changing the way the government was governing the country because they were doing a piss poor job at delivering anything to the most of the community. And they are quite incompetent economic managers to boot. About the only thing that National display competence in is delivering large affordable taxcuts for the already affluent, and causing then raising large debts to shove on to future generations.

          Personally I’d guess that level of honesty will make most National supporters toss their lunch when he starts to force ‘their’ government to start doing something about fixing it or stops them screwing it up further. That was exactly what happened in 1996-99 and 2005-2008

          • Draco T Bastard 19.3.1.3.1

            He campaigned on changing the way the government was governing the country because they were doing a piss poor job at delivering anything to the most of the community. And they are quite incompetent economic managers to boot.”>

            this is what NZ1st said about National’s economic management:

            NZ First says a Reserve Bank report has blown apart the sham economic credentials of the National-led Government.

            “Under National what are down, exports and productivity, ought to be up but what should be down, namely the dollar, imports and immigration, are all way up,” says New Zealand First Leader and Member of Parliament for Northland, Rt Hon Winston Peters.

            “It is common sense that you cannot import your way to economic growth but this government has fallen in love with the high dollar and the illusionary wealth it creates.

            “National is not right when a high dollar just widens the worst current account deficit since 2008 – the difference between what we sell and what we import. Today, one dollar in every three now hinges on imports and at 34% of the economy this is the highest ever level.

            “That high dollar has seen exports crash and they are the goods and services which pay our way in the world. It is further reflected in the worst levels of business investment under this allegedly National Government, than in any of the past three ‘economic expansions.’

            “While immigration growth smashes record after record our per-person productivity growth has fallen in almost direct proportion. National may think importing checkout operators from the third-world can grow the New Zealand economy but NZ First has always seen the economic naivety of that approach.

            “Now we are beginning to learn why Sir John Key pulled the pin on his parliamentary career,” says Mr Peters.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 19.4

      😆

      I know! The cheek of it! God forbid they form a government! Who could stand the relentless cry-baby whining, for one thing!

    • North 19.5

      ……..and you’ve got to sympathise with The Real Matthew @ 19……..who understands that NZ First voters didn’t want to change the status quo……..that’s why they didn’t vote National and did vote NZ First. Goodness me ! Have a big frothing tankard of MMP ale there TRM. Then piss into the wind.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 19.5.1

        I think it’s funny how he’s trying to forget about his mate Creepy Colin.

  20. Ed 20

    Well done to our special voters!

  21. Barfly 21

    Ah the wonderful realization….so long now RW’s have been crowing about the election

    ….looks more likely they’ll have to eat the crow now 🙂

    • ianmac 21.1

      Bet they won’t Barfly. And we are on the threshold of welcoming the 2nd woman PM after Helen. Jenny Shipley doesn’t count as she was appointed within the National Party but failed to get elected as a PM.
      And I think early results indicated that nearly half of Labour Caucus are female.

  22. Cinny 22

    Am super delighted at Maureen Pugh leaving, she’s done naught around these parts except show up at events looking fancy.

    Most disappointing was when her thoughtless words and actions caused my 12yr old who loves the rivers and loves farms to cry after a public Meet the Candidates event.

    Maureen, she had the chance to ask you about the water and you told her she was a political pawn for her mother and your supporter told my girl that her use of the toilet (town sewerage) is responsible for our dirty rivers.

    She told you how she’s sick of seeing cattle in the rivers around here and is far from stupid. She is a 12yr old who cares about her region and is interested in how politics work, it was a big deal for her to ask about the water, took her much courage and Maureen Pugh, you shot her down.

    Glad we won’t have the likes of maureen pugh in the house any longer. I’ve an utter lack of sympathy over the loss of her job today.

    Meanwhile… Civics in schools please and thank you.

  23. Stuart Munro 23

    So now we wait while Winston plays “I am a leaf on the wind; watch how I soar.” Not too keen on a reaver government, if he leans the wrong way.

  24. red-blooded 24

    So here’s a question if NZF go with the Left coalition (and note, I say “IF” because Winston may have campaigned for change, but he did the same in 1996 and we all know what version of change he served up… hopefully he’s learned from that dismal experience). How long do we think English will stick around and who will replace him?

    It’s a pretty thankless job leading the opposition to a first term government. Having said that, they’d be baying for blood, because they’d feel they’d been robbed of their right to rule.

    Bennet? Collins? Joyce? A fresher face..?

    • Barfly 24.1

      Farrar will tell them who the focus group wants…and off they will go

    • Incognito 24.2

      Well, I’m sorry but none of those (Bennett with two teas, Collins or Joyce) has a “face”; they have a mask. I would really like to see a real person front National and engage in debate so that we finally have a real contest of ideas instead of the dirty games that have become characteristic of NZ politics of late …

  25. Orthodoxia 25

    The reality is that Mr Peter’s needs to think how NZ First is going to survive the next election. He knows that all small parties are cursed in Govt and of course his looming retirement… That in the end will be his priority and also what legacy will he leave. For him it’s not about left or right which so many commentators and MSM seem so caught up on.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 25.1

      As King Canute trying to hold back National’s outgoing tide? Or forming a new mainstream consensus with the other pro-New Zealand parties?

      • Orthodoxia 25.1.1

        Who ever offers him or Shane a clear run at a northland seat next election as they will be polling under 5%. And also move the port to Northland as his l9egacy. And get the bodies from the mine…

        • One Anonymous Bloke 25.1.1.1

          They’ll be polling under 5% if they go with National? Good call, although perhaps you just have a good memory.

          After all, that’s what happened last time.

          • Orthodoxia 25.1.1.1.1

            They will be polling under 5 no matter which way they go

            • Barfly 25.1.1.1.1.1

              doubt it –

              be a pity for people like you if a new government reduced the threshold eh buddy?

              4% = eat me

              • Orthodoxia

                I would be stoked if the threshold is reduced???
                Having voted NZ First for many years for party vote and Labour for candidate I am very aware of how hard it is to get over 5%.

            • Ad 25.1.1.1.1.2

              Three years is a long time to be in government and get great publicity.
              New Zealand First have a major section of the older vote all to themselves. I would never, ever write New Zealand First off. Nor would I presume that Winston Peters would retire before the next election – I can see him going well into his late seventies if he wants.

              They appear better positioned with Labour and the Greens, because they will be able to divide and rule them pretty much at will.

              • Orthodoxia

                I agree, there is a good chance he will stay on, there has been plenty older in the past. I also agree that Labour / Greens may be a better fit. In the end National Ministers have done the dirty on him with his Super leak so he would have 0% trust.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Revealing. Not about NZF though.

              • RedLogix

                Not sure if anyone else has mentioned this yet, but if Peters is thinking past the next election, then which is more likely; National winning a 5th term under English, or Labour a 2nd term with Adern?

                Which wagon would you hitch up to?

                • Orthodoxia

                  The catch is the Greens in this scenario and next election. Funnily enough just having Shaw and a much smaller Greens may make the deal easier for Peter’s but who will be the new co-leader…

                  • Ad

                    It’s also well overdue for others within New Zealand First to shine. I have been a little surprised that Shane Jones has yet to fire since coming back to politics. Ron Mark needs to find some winnable battles too. If NZF goes for the cross-benches – which I think is pretty likely – they ought to be able to form into a serious attack-engine in the House.

                • Ad

                  The Treasury forecasts and the retail bank forecasts all point to a significant cooling-off in the economy, and that will be reflected in National’s support.

                  Peters would make a bigger impact in a cooling economy under Ardern than under English.

                  • Orthodoxia

                    Yes, the perfect scenario for NZ First is Labour/Greens. They both agree to guarantee an electorate seat (Northland or Whangarei) at next election with Auckland Port moved to help build support up there. Then same grouping carries through past 2020. And of course the mine. It’s not the sensible thing to do but 29 bodies need to be brought back to their families and we need to do it.

  26. Well , …soon we could be getting a change !

    A Labour , Green and NZ First one !

    All I have to say is :

    Royal Choral Society: ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ from Handel’s … – YouTube
    Video for hallelujah choir song you tube▶ 4:23

    • Anne 26.1

      Goose-bump stuff. I’m not religious but this has to be the greatest chorus of all time.

    • greg 26.2

      iam nonreligious but i listened to that one Hallelujah

    • veutoviper 26.3

      Wonderful!

      I don’t know how to get the pretty picture versions up, but here are a couple of closer to home waiata that have been sustaining me through the ups and downs of the last few weeks of uncertainty – the first being the other Hallelujah but in Maori.

      And Aotearoa

      and for good measure Maisey Rika

  27. greg 27

    today hope was restored for the first time in 9 years there is hope

  28. veutoviper 28

    Where to from here ?

    Earlier Jo Moir, Fairfax Senior Political Reporter, advised via Twitter that

    “Formal talks get underway at Parliament tomorrow with Peters, Ardern and English all winging it to Wellington.”

    She has now updated that to “NZ First negotiations with National will be at midday tomorrow and with Labour at 3pm.”

    Meantime for those interested, Jacinda’s partner is MCing the Sustainable Coastlines Charity Ball at the Hilton in Auckland tonight.

  29. veutoviper 29

    For other obsessives (I am certainly being one today!) , here is an analysis of today’s final election results and the ups and downs achieved by the left by region prepared by Michael Appleton via his Twitter account.

    I know nothing re Appleton, but his name etc has kept popping up recently. IMHO Michael Appleton’s whole timeline is worth a look over the pre and post election period for his ongoing analysis and lengthy threads of tweets on the subject of results, trends etc

    In particular his 44 (yes 44) tweets thread on Sept 27 covering “Some takeaways from “From Campaign to Coalition”, a book on our 1996 election, and its chapter on govt formation,” is well worth a read in relation to the present negotiations. AND it is easy to read despite the number of tweets. Highly recommend.

  30. NixSaved 30

    I’ve read the NZ Herald’s Election 2017 page and I’ve assumed that it has taking in the Special votes because I’ve noticed that four seats-that had Labour winning the electorate vote, but National winning the party vote- has now seen the Labour candidate claiming both: The Electorate & party votes. Well done to the Labour staff of Wigram, Palmerston North, Te Atatu & New Lynn.

  31. jamiep 31

    Its time for change lets move forward.

  32. swordfish 32

    Final Results (2017 vs 2014)

    .
    Labour
    Up 11.8 points

    .

    Lab+Green
    Up 7.4 points

    .

    Left Bloc (Lab+Green+IMP)
    Up 6 points

    .

    Oppo (Lab+Green+NZF)
    Up 5.9 points

    .

    Right Bloc (1) (Govt Parties + Cons)
    Down 6.8 points

    .

    Right Bloc (2) (Govt Parties (excluding Māori Party) + Cons)
    Down 6.7 points

    .

    Govt Bloc (not including Cons)
    Down 3.1 points

    .

    National
    Down 2.6 points

    .

    Right vs Oppo
    Right … Down 6.8 points
    Oppo … Up 5.9 points

    2014 … Right lead by 8.8 points
    2017 … Oppo lead by 4.0 points

  33. Fuckin’ chuffed this evening.

    That is all.

  34. Sparky 34

    Well it still all hinges on NZF. Lets wait and see what happens.

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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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