John Armstrong writes on 1 News:
Opinion: Dunne’s departure adds to the feeling of the tide going out on National
[Dunne’s] exit from politics has added grist to the impression that the electoral tide is going out on National.
The departure from Parliament of someone who was very much part of the post-1984 generational shift in politics has heightened the view that another such shift is currently underway — one that is not being driven by National.
The feeling that National is heading for loser status has been reinforced by the increasing likelihood of the party’s friends evaporating into thin air.
Dunne has gone. The Maori Party may well go the same way. …
When Ohariu voters were asked which party would be getting their party vote, around 46 per cent backed National, while some 35 per cent opted for Labour.
When placed alongside the actual party vote recorded at the last election in 2014, the gap between National’s and Labour’s share of the vote has narrowed to the former party’s disadvantage from 27 percentage points to just 11.
Of course, drawing such conclusions by comparing two very different sets of figures taken from just one electorate would horrify statisticians.
But the figures are stark. The scale of the shift in Labour’s support would have sent a cold shiver up and down the National Party’s spine as well as Dunne’s.
Read on in the full piece for plenty more. And in a similar vein:
Ardern vs English: Is this the time of transformation?
Audrey Young: Peter Dunne abandoning the centre-right ship
The political drama is real this time as National faces stiff challenge for power
Bombshell poll puts change of Government at even odds
Ah but Tracy Watkins – why did you weaken this one?