Boris Johnson’s majority is disappearing

30 comments on “Boris Johnson’s majority is disappearing ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Visubversa 1

   3 August 2019 at 9:11 am

   Obvious tactical voting by Labour supporters in the by-election. The Irish stuff is just insanity.
   • mosa 1.1

     3 August 2019 at 10:56 am

     This seat has not been Labour since 1979 when it swung Tory.

     And given the Liberal Democrats and its new leader are far closer to the Tories than anyone else i would say it is a protest vote from Conservative voters.

     The Labour vote is small and some may have held their noses and voted L.D P knowing there was no chance of winning the seat.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brecon_and_Radnorshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

     [fixed link]
     • mosa 1.1.1

       4 August 2019 at 2:34 am

       Also they are coming after Corbyn blaming his leadership for the loss which is total crap.

       They were never in the running for a safe right wing seat.

       https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2019/08/03/as-centrists-pile-on-to-attack-corbyn-twitter-strikes-back-with-an-important-dose-of-truth/
   • Agora 1.2

     3 August 2019 at 6:46 pm

     Absolutely, my dear Watson !
2. Ad 2

   3 August 2019 at 9:29 am

   Johnson is a powerful orator and it will need a very focussed and united Labour-LibDeb opposition that generates an alternative plan for the UK that can overcome him in the public mind.

   But there's no change without the new framing of the opposition uniting.

   With Jo Swinson now the effective leader of opposition in the UK, Corbyn should accept that his party's job is to prepare the policy platform for everything beyond Britain's exit.

   Corbyn can use the instability of Brexit over the next year to blame it for even greater economic decline than is already appearing in Britain. Or at least, Corbyn's shadow Chancellor John McConnell can.

   Demand from UK trading partners is faltering. Industry suffered its most widespread fall in output since 2012, with a drop in car production leading the charge.

   Germany, France and Spain have released manufacturing figures this week that were also unexpectedly grim.

   With Brexit as an accelerant to global economic slowdown in part caused by much larger trade wars between the US and China, there's a story waiting to be written for the left in UK politics.

   Given that UK Labor will never now be useful in the Brexit debate, they can at least form an economic policy platform for a replacement government as the UK economic sputters and declines.
   • Hanswurst 2.1

     3 August 2019 at 1:53 pm

     Yes, your pathological hatred of Corbyn is well known.
     • Ad 2.1.1

       3 August 2019 at 2:07 pm

       Best to go by the results of actual people, as above.
   • woodart 2.2

     3 August 2019 at 1:58 pm

     british labour party has been worse than useless. at a time when the tories are divided and tearing the country up, labour has phucked around on the sidelines. should have won the last election easily, but mixed messages have wasted peoples time .
     • Dukeofurl 2.2.1

       3 August 2019 at 5:31 pm

       "should have won the last election easily,"

       Nonsense. Even though their vote rose 9% they were still 55 seats behind the Conservatives .

       55!
       • woodart 2.2.1.1

         3 August 2019 at 5:37 pm

         dont care whether they were 55 or 500 seats behind. my point is that with the tories doing there best to resemble headless chooks, british labour couldnt get there shit together to present a united competent alternative.
3. Dennis Frank 3

   3 August 2019 at 9:44 am

   Good to see the Raving Loonies are still hard at it. The winner: "My very first act as your MP when I arrive in Westminster will be to find Boris Johnson, wherever he’s hiding".

   So she doesn't know the PM normally hides in 10 Downing St. Must be a refugee from Labour.
   • Gabby 3.1

     3 August 2019 at 12:46 pm

     In praxis his flat is over no 11 isn't it franko? Prolly to outfox you.
4. Dennis Frank 4

   3 August 2019 at 9:51 am

   "His solution? Sinn Fein MPs all resign. And Sinn Féin, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens all agree on a joint candidate who would be very likely to be elected at the by election."

   Cool idea. I wonder if Sinn Féin, the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens have all agreed on anything ever? If so, then quote that precedent. If not, apologise for momentary utopianism. Fintan O’Toole at the Irish Times being downright Irish…
   • Dukeofurl 4.1

     3 August 2019 at 10:19 am

     Quite a bizarre idea… too silly for words. The only likely winner out of this would be the execrable DUP

     SF has been slowly taking seats of the SDLP over the years, such as Down South and Foyle
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliamentary_constituencies_in_Northern_Ireland
     • greywarshark 4.1.1

       3 August 2019 at 11:24 am

       They could be asking for another referendum that would be binding but it must be a larger majority say 75/25. Some delay would be good, and as Boorish has staked his whole ability merely on getting the Brexit passed, and that is all, then he is bound to seem even dodgier than now and another Conservative leader will be chosen. The Irish idea may be bizarre at first glance, but set against the whole background, it matches in temerity the rest of the riot.

       A diversion. Has anyone read Tom Sharpe, he would have loved this, but died in 2013. He was a great eccentric in life and managed to be so in death.

       https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3423790/Tom-Sharpe-blot-graveyard-Author-s-partner-fined-Church-England-burying-loved-one-chapel-grounds-without-permission.html
       • alwyn 4.1.1.1

         3 August 2019 at 12:25 pm

         "They could be asking for another referendum that would be binding but it must be a larger majority say 75/25."

         And which way would you suggest must reach the 75%? Convention would say that you must, if you don't use a simple majority, have a larger number to change the status quo. At the moment the status quo, as determined by the poll of 3 years ago, is to leave the EU.

         Would you now say that there must be at least 75% of the people voting in a new poll to vote to stay in the EU or the departure will have to happen?
         • Dukeofurl 4.1.1.1.1

           3 August 2019 at 1:01 pm

           Johnson has quite cleverly changed the debate parameters.

           Its now clearly about leaving EU with the choice between Deal or No deal.

           Swept aside is the 'Remain' option for now .
           • alwyn 4.1.1.1.1.1

             3 August 2019 at 2:17 pm

             That is quite true. Boris always was an exceedingly crafty fellow.

             However I think that greywarshark was talking about a rerun of the original referendum, of the leave/don't leave variety. In that case I would say my comment stands.

             If he didn't mean that should be the referendum question, and happens to see this, perhaps he might respond.
5. greywarshark 5

   3 August 2019 at 9:57 am

   Edit:
   This was possibly a good summation of likely events from yesterday in Open Mike after discussing the possibility of Labour calling a No confidence vote after the Brecon MP gets into the Commons and some defector Remainer crosses the floor.

   Dukeofurl 14.1.3.1

   2 August 2019 at 5:49 pm

   No. Losing a no confidence motion doesnt mean a new election at all. Under fixed term election rules it takes 2 separate no confidence motions.

   All the first motion would do is that Johnson would resign but immediately form a new government and likely prorouge parliament to avoid another one. Harpers conservatives did a similar scenario when they were a minority government facing a no confidence motion they would lose ( no fixed terms law either).

   and ScottGN followed with the results for Harper:

   ScottGN 14.1.3.1.1
   2 August 2019 at 6:28 pm

   Yep. And Harper went on to win a majority in the election following his shutting down the parliament in Ottawa.

   The Rules are like piano keys to be played by masters of the instrument.
   • greywarshark 5.1

     3 August 2019 at 10:18 am

     I presume that DukeofUrl knows of what he speaks. If not could someone advise the facts.
     • Dukeofurl 5.1.1

       3 August 2019 at 10:31 am

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

       There is also a 'non' no confidence motion. Where the motion is 'no confidence in the Prime Minister'.

       This doesnt bring down the government as its 'the PM' not HM Government

       The last no confidence motion in HMG ( Jan 2019) failed 325 to 306
       • mosa 5.1.1.1

         3 August 2019 at 5:00 pm

         But the one on March 28th 1979 on Scottish devolution led to the fall of the Callaghan government and ushered in the Thatcher revolution on May 3rd 1979 by one vote.

         18 Years passed before a captialist friendly Labour party won government.

         No Brexit of course but huge industrial unrest during the " winter of discontent "
         • Dukeofurl 5.1.1.1.1

           3 August 2019 at 5:27 pm

           Westminster passed at 'second reading' Scottish Home Rule bill in 1913 but the war stopped further progress.

           The Irish Home Rule Act was passed in 1914 but was suspended for 12 months with the start of WW1 , but everything changed in 1916.

           many of the machinations of Irish Home rule around this time are being repeated now to stop Brexit.
6. greywarshark 6

   3 August 2019 at 11:12 am

   Thank goodness someone knows enough and can explain it to us. If the non motion was activated, would that shake the exotic bird out of his tree? Or would it be quickly dealt with and on into the Valley of Death ride the 600?

   I spent some time looking at whether the House of Lords could stop the horses from bolting. They can in some cases, hold legislation back presumably to avoid the country making an arse of itself. But they have to be called in about a month before meeting. The matter did appear to be one in which they would have some right of determination.

   However then the EU would have to consider its deadline. If they thought that there was something of substance being done they might. Setting a deadline and being hard-line was necessary for them to try and get some gravitas into what is actually the plot for a spoof movie, one that Leslie Nielsen could have had fun with. They don't want instability entering the compact, and the UK becoming more of a USA puppet than it already is, they might stretch time lines if it is to their advantage.
   • Dukeofurl 6.1

     3 August 2019 at 12:56 pm

     No reconsidering deadline. The no deal option is just there to concentrate the minds of the EU leaders – who will leave office shortly after.

     EU will easily screw over the Irish to 'save the german car industry' ( 20% go to Britain) or the French farmers.

     Who would have thought after all the issues of the 1916 rebellion and the following 1920s independence war with Britain that Ireland is so keen to still hang onto Britains apron strings- Dont they have the massive EU market to rely on along with EU subsidies
     • greywarshark 6.1.1

       3 August 2019 at 4:12 pm

       But what about Northern Ireland? There seems a fear of that starting up again and it rips the country apart.
       • Dukeofurl 6.1.1.1

         3 August 2019 at 5:13 pm

         Thats just part of project Fear.- mainly hyped by that partisan Remain newspaper The Independent.

         They had a border all through the troubles as the problem was the British presence in Northern Ireland – which continues to this day – not the border per see , which was always porous

         Everything has changed in Ulster since the Good Friday Agreement

         "The two main political parties to the Agreement were the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), led by David Trimble and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), led by John Hume."

         The main Ulster unionist party now are the Democratic Unionists they werent parties of the original agreement, in fact they rejected it.

         looking at the Belfast Agreement – or Good Friday- having no controls on border isnt mentioned

         https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agreement.pdf

         The current situation came about because of EU border rules and as Ireland , like UK is outside Schengen, there will still be some sort of border checks between Ireland its self and mainland Europe like there is now ( show ID)
         • greywarshark 6.1.1.1.1

           3 August 2019 at 5:47 pm

           Thanks I'll look and learn.
7. OnceWasTim 7

   3 August 2019 at 2:23 pm

   
   
   

   Brtiss internal poltiks.

   No wonder a few are heading for the escape hatch. Am I bovvered so far? Not so much
   • greywarshark 7.1

     3 August 2019 at 5:49 pm

     Laughed only understood one word in ten though. Never mind I get desperate, hold up a piece of string and I'll giggle.

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS