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Brexit?

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 4th, 2019 - 20 comments
Categories: Politics, uk politics - Tags:

 

 
It’s the first day after summer recess, and MPs are preparing to vote on a bill proposed by Labour’s Hilary Benn, supported by members from across opposition parties and rebel Conservatives. That bill will attempt to extend the date of Brexit to January 31, 2020 in the event of no deal being agreed or passed through Parliament. If the bill passes Boris Johnson is expected to call a general election.
 
The Guardian @guardian
 
Brexit: Boris Johnson fails to win over Tory rebels in meeting at No 10 ahead of key vote – live news
theguardian.com
 
Joe Pike @joepike
 
NEW: Parliamentary Labour Party meeting at 6pm tonight. Jeremy Corbyn will speak. A ‘change’ expected on party’s position on an early election. #Brexit
 
 
Questions being asked about how Labour can vote for a General Election tomorrow and stop a No Deal Brexit.

It looks like it can be done because of clever drafting of this afternoon’s motion to take control of the parliamentary timetable.

1/….
As per @cgwOMT recent tweet, this afternoon’s motion – if passed – will prevent the Government from proroguing Parliament this week because it takes control of NI Executive Act and prevents a debate on the act before Monday.
 
The NI legislation was passed before the summer recess to prevent prorogation of Parliament until MPs had been given an update on progress to restore the power sharing agreement.

That’s down for Monday.

And today’s motion means that update cannot be provided before Monday.
 
Which gives those wanting to stop a No Deal Brexit until Monday to pass a new law mandating the Prime Minister to go back to Brussels and seek an extension to Article 50 until January 31st.
 
In other words, when it comes to having a general election and stopping the UK leaving the EU without a deal on October 31st, it does appear Labour can have their cake and eat it.
 
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjghJ6Dy6Do]
 

Updates 2019-09-05 0830:

NYT: “U.K. Lawmakers Pass Bill Blocking No-Deal Brexit, Defying Johnson

Having won control of the legislative agenda on Tuesday night,lawmakers moved quickly on a bill that would rule out Mr. Johnson’s plan for a withdrawal by the end of next month even if there is no deal, which many say would cause chaos. On Wednesday afternoon, by a vote of 327 to 299, they pushed the bill through a second stage in the two-step process.

The bill now goes to the House of Lords, which must give its assent.

After a night of extraordinary theater in Parliament, Mr. Johnson confronted on Wednesday a bleak scene scattered with the remnants of his Brexit policy, raising the possibility that the issue could destroy his premiership just as it had the two previous Conservative prime ministers, but more rapidly.

In the course of Tuesday evening, the prime minister lost control of Parliament, and with it his oft-made promise to carry out Brexit, “do or die.” He also possibly fractured his Conservative Party by carrying out a purge of 21 rebel Tory lawmakers who voted against the government. And he saw his plan for a swift general election being resisted by his opponents.

And Boris wants to have a new election, however he needs a 2/3rds majority in parliament to call for one. 

Another product of his take-no-prisoners approach has been an erosion of trust. While he needs the Labour Party’s votes to reach the two-thirds threshold required in Parliament to call an election, its leaders are deeply suspicious of his motives.

The prime minister has said an election would take place on Oct. 15, but they worry that he will invent an excuse to move the date closer to the Oct. 31 deadline for leaving the European Union — or even after that — at the very least leaving no time for legislating after the balloting.

Determined not to “walk into a trap,” as the Labour spokesman on Brexit, Keir Starmer, said on Wednesday, the party is refusing to back Mr. Johnson’s call for an election until legislation ruling out a no-deal Brexit becomes the law of the land.

Mr. Starmer said Labour would not vote for an election on a promise from Mr. Johnson “that it will be 15 October — which we don’t believe.”

Bearing in mind the chaos that is the Brexit process in the UK and the political tactics that Boris Johnson has been employing, it is hard to disagree.

CNN: Running a live update – including the video of the UK parliament

Happening now: Parliament is debating Boris Johnson’s motion on an early election

After a short address from the Prime Minister, lawmakers in the House of Commons are debating whether or not to hold a snap general election on Tuesday, October 15.

0837 And Boris Johnson just lost the 2/3rds majority vote to have an election. Very low vote.


20 comments on “Brexit? ”

  1. Have to say, my only interest in Brexit is out of a ghoulish kind of amusement.

    If you watched their 'Commons' (now there's a misnomer), Rees-Moggy having a lay down – so bloody conservative he's still wearing a suit he bought in the 1950s; a mixture of careerists and hangers-on all pretending a concern for democracy and the will of the British people. Most BBC reporters will be pushing for counselling when its all over. No wonder the bloody empire collapsed – although a good many of them seem to think and act like its still running,

  2. Waiura 3

    My God ! Are these the same people who used to rule half of the known world ?

    • tc 3.1

      Their ancestors used to run half the world after invading it and setting themselves up as it's rulers….contextually irrelevant in todays world.

      This is the inevtiable decline one gets when priviledge and a 'born to rule' attitude seeps in with subsequent generations that lack empathy or the will to broker a workable solution.

      Their forefathers and mothers understood the value of a win-win, boris's mob want it all.

  3. JohnP 4

    Well, looks like Johnson has had a really GOOD first day.

  4. SPC 5

    Labour's current policy is

    1. delay a no deal Brexit to force an election

    2. lose the election (given FPP and no deal Brexiteers united behind the Tories)

    3. have a Tory majority parliament enact a no deal Brexit and usher in 5 years of right wing government.

    The alternative

    1. delay a no deal Brexit.

    2. exploit BJ losing MP's to remove the government during this parliament

    3. form a new coalition (with a Tory rebel or ex Labour MP as caretaker PM) and determine on a deal with the EU

    4. send the deal to a referendum for ratification (the deal or Brexit with no deal being the two options).

    5. then hold a new election (with Brexit being settled first).

    The question is why play the losing hand? The answer is because Corbyn prefers the public have the stark choice of right vs left, but is not fussed either way about the EU matter.

  5. Wayne 6

    SPC

    There is a third much more likely alternative. That bill currently before parliament passes, then there is an election.

    The reason being is that I can’t imagine enough Tory rebel MP’s supporting Jeremy to be the PM for what would probably a year or more. It would take all that time to negotiate a new deal and get it through Parliament.

    The reality is that this parliament can’t produce majorities for anything except delay. It can’t actually vote for a deal.

    So I expect an election probably in November.

    • SPC 6.1

      I did not suggest that the leader of any party should be the caretaker PM – that would be inappropriate for such an administration.

      And it should not be hard to form a new government and decide on membership of the customs union and single market (LD want remain Labour something less than this – so it is the obvious compromise). It would not take long to them hold a referendum – months at most.

      The real problem is Corbyn (and I prefer him to the Blairites, but he is strategically inept). There is a majority against a no deal Brexit in parliament and in the country and he will fail to use either to determine the issue. Instead he prefers an election – in which only the no deal Brexiteers are united – and thus under FPP they will win.

      • Agora 6.1.1

        "The real problem is Corbyn (and I prefer him to the Blairites, but he is strategically inept). There is a majority against a no deal Brexit in parliament and in the country and he will fail to use either to determine the issue. Instead he prefers an election – in which only the no deal Brexiteers are united – and thus under FPP they will win."

        Government is a team effort and Corbyn might yet rise to the occasion. I remain cautiously optimistic.

        • JohnP 6.1.1.1

          Love a strategically inept leader who's the only one left standing since 2016 and who has a good chance of enacting the Brexit policy he's had since 2017's Party Conference, which is supported by the 500,000 members of his party.

          There's a majority against No Deal Brexit, for sure, but there isn't for what should be in its place.

          Many Tories still want A Brexit, which includes some of those who had the whip removed today.

          Liberal Democrats have shifted from Second Referendum which includes No Deal vs Remain on the ballot (and risk accidentally doing No Deal by losing the vote) to a Revoke Article 50 stance which will absolutely energise the Brexiteers of all stripes.

          Labour wants a Labour negotiated deal to be placed against Remain in a referendum

          The eight indicative votes that happened earlier this year demonstrated that aptly, see here: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47726787

          The 2017 election and the erosion of the Tory majority was the handbrake on Brexit. Parliamentary arithmetic has been part of the deadlock since then and seen the Tories absolutely tear themselves apart in the process. The only way to resolve that problem is an election.

          Strategically inept Corbyn? You love to see it.

    • Dukeofurl 6.2

      Im picking an election sooner than November, 6 weeks from now is Late October.

      Proroguing parliament before a bill has passed through all its stages will kill it before the election, especially a non government bill like the current No deal Brexit bill

    • woodart 6.3

      so you dont think any tory m.p.s care more about the future of there bitterly divided kingdom , but are only looking the the road directly in front of the car? surely the proper thing is to offer another referendum, and this time its got to be a 2/3 majority for change. having such a huge longterm change needs to have a proper majority for change. this foolheaded idea has already cost two of your fellow tory p.ms to walk. if they keep on down this track scotland will push for another independence referendum, and this time it very likely will happen. adios united kingdom. of course trump is delighted.

      • Pat 6.3.1

        Trump dosnt need or desire a break up of the UK…he does however desire a break up of the EU and Brexit is a step along the way

        • woodart 6.3.1.1

          no, trump is acutley sensitive to public criticism, he spends most nights watching the media, he will keep up with all that is said about him.now, for the first time since he fell into the presidency, theres an even bigger tool, getting even more abuse. three years of public ridicule by a majority of the people stings even the most orange of hide. but you are correct he doesnt want the u.k. to break up, wouldnt do his golf courses any favours. it makes you value stable competent government by adults, not "lets turn this knob ,and see what happens"experts here will correct me Im sure, but didnt the queen(through govgen)give whitlams legally elected gov the flick, and install fraser. what was that for. I would say that whats happened in the u.k. these past few years is far worse. lizzie should say ', me and the whanau are off, with the paperworks keys, and rights to everything, going to canada, turning that into the new hq of the commonwealth. canada managed to adultly work out their own possible split up .

          • Dukeofurl 6.3.1.1.1

            "but didnt the queen(through govgen)give whitlams legally elected gov the flick, and install fraser. what was that for."

            Queen wasnt involved , Kerr did it on his on initiative under what he considered his prerogative in the written Australian Constitution ( it was related to the Senate not passing his budget)

  6. Agora 7

    "you are correct he doesnt want the u.k. to break up, wouldnt do his golf courses any favours. it makes you value stable competent government by adults, not "lets turn this knob ,and see what happens"

    I'm with you on that one, Woodart. You can sometimes find allies in strange and unexpected places.

    • woodart 7.1

      Its funny how the world currently is. the germans chinese and japanese are the adults in the room now.

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