Written By: - Date published: 12:21 pm, October 20th, 2024 - 24 comments
Elliot Crossan at System Change Aotearoa reviews the past year. Despite the tepid public support for this government’s problematic actions, he warns that ‘The Right Is United By Power — Don’t Underestimate Them’
Written By: - Date published: 6:41 pm, October 11th, 2024 - 109 comments
The latest Curia poll result suggests that National is tanking and NZ First and Act are eating into its support. And Luxon selling off his rental properties and saying that he does not care suggests he may be planning for an exit.
Written By: - Date published: 10:22 am, July 21st, 2024 - 70 comments
I can’t remember American politics ever being this weird. Donald Trump is riding a wave of support and risks being returned to the White House as President. And Joe Biden is considering his options.
Written By: - Date published: 10:04 pm, June 10th, 2024 - 12 comments
The UK still has the First Past the Post Electoral system. Something New Zealand should have absolutely no nostalgia for. This means that, while the campaign is UK-wide, a lot of campaign activity is directed into constituencies that are deemed marginal. In marginal constituencies, a General Election brings a conveyor belt of the good and the great supporting their prospective parliamentary candidate. In “safe seats” voters get much less attention.
Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, April 29th, 2024 - 52 comments
The latest One News Verian poll suggests that the right is in trouble.
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, March 8th, 2024 - 39 comments
The Atlas aligned Taxpayer’s Union has released its latest Curia poll results. And the results are bad news for Christopher Luxon.
Written By: - Date published: 9:06 pm, February 19th, 2024 - 43 comments
The latest One News Verian poll suggests that there has been absolutely no honeymoon for the Government.
Written By: - Date published: 8:06 am, October 12th, 2023 - 52 comments
Two new polls were released last night and they both confirm a tightening of the race with the right slumping and the left improving.
Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, October 11th, 2023 - 82 comments
A new poll has Labour surging into the 30s, Act continuing its decline and National going backward. This election is not over.
Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 4th, 2023 - 30 comments
In a week of weird events National’s decision not to debate Labour in the Press’s leader’s debate has been a massive own goal because the country will be able to see how toxic David Seymour’s and Winston Peters’ relationship is.
Written By: - Date published: 1:56 pm, September 12th, 2023 - 31 comments
The silver lining to last night’s Reid Research poll is that Act’s support is slumping and if there is a change in Government it may not be as extreme as it could have been.
Written By: - Date published: 12:34 pm, August 31st, 2023 - 44 comments
Now is not the time to give up, now is the time to work harder at winning.
Written By: - Date published: 8:08 pm, May 14th, 2023 - 70 comments
The latest TV3 Newshub poll results are out. The major parties are neck and neck. No surprise there. But what is stark is the public response to Christopher Luxon. Basically he is tanking.
Written By: - Date published: 6:18 pm, March 13th, 2023 - 57 comments
The latest One News Kantar Poll result has been released and it is a doozie.
Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, February 22nd, 2023 - 37 comments
Here’s my prediction: Labour will not just win the October election, but it will complete a landslide of similar proportions to the 2020 election. It has been Labour’s response to the cyclones that will be the decisive factor in October. Luxon’s low energy performance helps.
Written By: - Date published: 9:07 am, February 2nd, 2023 - 71 comments
Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown is providing National strategists with a rather large headache.
Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, January 30th, 2023 - 78 comments
This evening two new political polls have been released both putting Labour ahead of National.
Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, January 24th, 2023 - 52 comments
It is too soon to say what Jacinda’s legacy will be. She will certainly be remembered for becoming a mother whilst being a world leader. For her presence on the world stage as a voice for feminism and progressive politics. She ushered in a generational and attitudinal change in New Zealand politics. While internationally she offered an alternative to the politics of Trump, Bolsonaro, Scott Morrison, and Viktor Orban.
Written By: - Date published: 7:28 am, December 20th, 2022 - 96 comments
I thought David Seymour was the most interesting speaker at the Victoria University post-election conference at Parliament last year. Two things stood out for me in his presentation following ACT’s election gains. He opened by offering lengthy and effusive praise to his researcher, then clearly stated his objective to supplant National as the leading party on the right. He’s on track for that, as current media attention shows.
Written By: - Date published: 5:34 pm, August 21st, 2022 - 64 comments
But the past week has been a week of sideshows. One international as elements of the right try to smear Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin for dancing. And one local where rogue Labour MP Gaurav Sharma is running out of excuses for not backing up the extraordinary claims he has made about the Labour Party.
Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, June 21st, 2022 - 104 comments
An Auckland Ratepayers Alliance Curia poll that was trumpeted as claiming that Efeso Collins and Leo Molloy were neck and neck in terms of public support has attracted criticism after it was disclosed that the poll of 500 persons had 53% stating that they did not know who they would vote for.
Written By: - Date published: 8:11 pm, May 3rd, 2022 - 109 comments
The latest Reid Research poll result has been released. Basically it reflects other polls that have been recently conducted. But the Herald have chosen to suggest it shows a dramatic change.
Written By: - Date published: 7:54 pm, March 10th, 2022 - 124 comments
National/Act (47%) would beat Labour/Greens (46%) if there were an election held tomorrow, according to the latest One News Kantar poll.
Written By: - Date published: 10:56 am, February 13th, 2022 - 34 comments
Where will the votes come from to get Labour a third term?
Written By: - Date published: 10:08 pm, February 7th, 2022 - 93 comments
I am going to channel my Matthew Hooton left wing alter ego in the writing of this post. The latest Newshub poll shows a resounding level of support for the Labour Party and there are murmurs of discontent about Chris Luxon after support for the right plummets.
Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments
Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.
Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, January 28th, 2022 - 52 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton (now Kantar) poll has now been released and some of the commentary and analysis is pretty ordinary.
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, December 14th, 2021 - 89 comments
Long overdue, the recent Green upward trend continues.
Written By: - Date published: 8:13 am, November 12th, 2021 - 148 comments
The results of two polls were leaked recently both showing a drop in support for Labour. Clearly the Delta outbreak has rattled confidence. But National has not surged up in support and the Greens have picked up some of the former Labour vote.
Written By: - Date published: 10:49 am, October 7th, 2021 - 30 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll was run between August 30th and September 26th. The headline results of Labour/Greens with 55% (increase by 3.5%) against opposition National/Act/Maori parties on 41% (up 0.5%) were good enough. But they also showed the gender split.. Women are deserting the right.
Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, September 28th, 2021 - 152 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton poll confirms that National’s polling is in the doldrums and David Seymour’s preferred PM rating is twice that of Judith Collins.
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