polls

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Is Luxon on a roll?

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, December 18th, 2024 - 24 comments

Or about to be rolled? Word has it that Chris Bishop is waiting in the wings, as Luxon’s favourability rating drops below Hipkins.

The unusual feature of Taxpayers Union’s latest Curia poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:03 am, December 11th, 2024 - 14 comments

Unlike two other recent polls the latest Taxpayer’s Union poll reports a surge to Act happening during the time the Treaty Principles Bill was introduced.

Luxon Takes A Beating

Written By: - Date published: 10:14 am, December 4th, 2024 - 20 comments

Five recent polls show that Kiwis are tired of the Coalition government, but will the trendline hold?

Curia exited RANZ because Family First are unbalanced

Written By: - Date published: 4:49 pm, November 30th, 2024 - 7 comments

David Farrar’s company Curia abruptly exited the Research Association of New Zealand (RANZ) in August. It was triggered by a complaint about the fairness of the wording of a question in a April poll. This was a really bad poll, and this question a particularly egregious breach of any fairness. The question was paid for by Family Fi(r)st.

Will This Be a One-Term Government?

Written By: - Date published: 12:21 pm, October 20th, 2024 - 24 comments

Elliot Crossan at System Change Aotearoa reviews the past year. Despite the tepid public support for this government’s problematic actions, he warns that ‘The Right Is United By Power — Don’t Underestimate Them’

Latest poll result – National is being cleaned out by NZ First and Act

Written By: - Date published: 6:41 pm, October 11th, 2024 - 109 comments

The latest Curia poll result suggests that National is tanking and NZ First and Act are eating into its support. And Luxon selling off his rental properties and saying that he does not care suggests he may be planning for an exit.

Will he stay or will he go

Written By: - Date published: 10:22 am, July 21st, 2024 - 70 comments

I can’t remember American politics ever being this weird. Donald Trump is riding a wave of support and risks being returned to the White House as President. And Joe Biden is considering his options.

UK General Election – the mood on the doorstep

Written By: - Date published: 10:04 pm, June 10th, 2024 - 12 comments

The UK still has the First Past the Post Electoral system. Something New Zealand should have absolutely no nostalgia for. This means that, while the campaign is UK-wide, a lot of campaign activity is directed into constituencies that are deemed marginal. In marginal constituencies, a General Election brings a conveyor belt of the good and the great supporting their prospective parliamentary candidate. In “safe seats” voters get much less attention.

Right wing plunges in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, April 29th, 2024 - 52 comments

The latest One News Verian poll suggests that the right is in trouble.

Luxon crashes in latest Curia poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, March 8th, 2024 - 39 comments

The Atlas aligned Taxpayer’s Union has released its latest Curia poll results. And the results are bad news for Christopher Luxon.

About the One News Poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:06 pm, February 19th, 2024 - 43 comments

The latest One News Verian poll suggests that there has been absolutely no honeymoon for the Government.

Down to the wire

Written By: - Date published: 8:06 am, October 12th, 2023 - 52 comments

Two new polls were released last night and they both confirm a tightening of the race with the right slumping and the left improving.

Labour surges in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, October 11th, 2023 - 82 comments

A new poll has Labour surging into the 30s, Act continuing its decline and National going backward. This election is not over.

The weird and wacky 2023 election campaign

Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 4th, 2023 - 30 comments

In a week of weird events National’s decision not to debate Labour in the Press’s leader’s debate has been a massive own goal because the country will be able to see how toxic David Seymour’s and Winston Peters’ relationship is.

The silver lining of last night’s poll

Written By: - Date published: 1:56 pm, September 12th, 2023 - 31 comments

The silver lining to last night’s Reid Research poll is that Act’s support is slumping and if there is a change in Government it may not be as extreme as it could have been.

The report of our death has been grossly exaggerated

Written By: - Date published: 12:34 pm, August 31st, 2023 - 44 comments

Now is not the time to give up, now is the time to work harder at winning.

Luxon’s days are numbered

Written By: - Date published: 8:08 pm, May 14th, 2023 - 70 comments

The latest TV3 Newshub poll results are out. The major parties are neck and neck.  No surprise there. But what is stark is the public response to Christopher Luxon. Basically he is tanking.

Luxon slumps in latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:18 pm, March 13th, 2023 - 57 comments

The latest One News Kantar Poll result has been released and it is a doozie.

Is Labour heading for Muriwai-scale landslide win?

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, February 22nd, 2023 - 37 comments

Here’s my prediction: Labour will not just win the October election, but it will complete a landslide of similar proportions to the 2020 election. It has been Labour’s response to the cyclones that will be the decisive factor in October. Luxon’s low energy performance helps.

National’s Brown problem

Written By: - Date published: 9:07 am, February 2nd, 2023 - 71 comments

Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown is providing National strategists with a rather large headache.

Two new polls …

Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, January 30th, 2023 - 78 comments

This evening two new political polls have been released both putting Labour ahead of National.

Jacinda Ardern – How will her five years in power be remembered?

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, January 24th, 2023 - 52 comments

It is too soon to say what Jacinda’s legacy will be. She will certainly be remembered for becoming a mother whilst being a world leader. For her presence on the world stage as a voice for feminism and progressive politics. She ushered in a generational and attitudinal change in New Zealand politics. While internationally she offered an alternative to the politics of Trump, Bolsonaro, Scott Morrison, and Viktor Orban.

The rise and rise of David Seymour’s ACT

Written By: - Date published: 7:28 am, December 20th, 2022 - 96 comments

I thought David Seymour was the  most interesting speaker at the Victoria University post-election conference at Parliament last year. Two things stood out for me in  his presentation following ACT’s election gains. He opened by offering lengthy and effusive praise to his researcher, then clearly stated his objective to supplant National as the leading party on the right. He’s on track for that, as current media attention shows.

A week of sideshows

Written By: - Date published: 5:34 pm, August 21st, 2022 - 64 comments

But the past week has been a week of sideshows.  One international as elements of the right try to smear Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin for dancing.  And one local where rogue Labour MP Gaurav Sharma is running out of excuses for not backing up the extraordinary claims he has made about the Labour Party.

The dodgy Auckland Mayoralty Curia poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, June 21st, 2022 - 104 comments

An Auckland Ratepayers Alliance Curia poll that was trumpeted as claiming that Efeso Collins and Leo Molloy were neck and neck in terms of public support has attracted criticism after it was disclosed that the poll of 500 persons had 53% stating that they did not know who they would vote for.

Latest poll result – all steady but the Herald needs an English lesson

Written By: - Date published: 8:11 pm, May 3rd, 2022 - 109 comments

The latest Reid Research poll result has been released.  Basically it reflects other polls that have been recently conducted.  But the Herald have chosen to suggest it shows a dramatic change.

The latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:54 pm, March 10th, 2022 - 124 comments

National/Act (47%) would beat Labour/Greens (46%) if there were an election held tomorrow, according to the latest One News Kantar poll.

Can this government get re-elected?

Written By: - Date published: 10:56 am, February 13th, 2022 - 34 comments

Where will the votes come from to get Labour a third term? 

Luxon under pressure after latest Newshub Poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:08 pm, February 7th, 2022 - 93 comments

I am going to channel my Matthew Hooton left wing alter ego in the writing of this post.  The latest Newshub poll shows a resounding level of support for the Labour Party and there are murmurs of discontent about Chris Luxon after support for the right plummets.

How far has National really fallen?

Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments

Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.

About the latest Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, January 28th, 2022 - 52 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton (now Kantar) poll has now been released and some of the commentary and analysis is pretty ordinary.