Luxon slumps in latest Colmar Brunton poll
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- Date published:
6:18 pm, March 13th, 2023 - 57 comments
Categories: act, chris hipkins, Christopher Luxon, greens, labour, maori party, national, Politics, polls, uncategorized -
Tags: act, election 2023, greens, labour, national, polls
The latest One News Kantar Poll result has been released and it is a doozie.
Labour is down slightly from 38% to 36% which is not great … but …
National is down 3% from 37% to 34% which is not good for them but …
Act is up 1% to 11% and the Greens are up 4% to 11%.
It is still neck and neck. But the polls have tipped to the left. With the Maori Party there is now a way for the left to retain power.
But the headline is that Chris Luxon’s polling has plunged.
Preferred prime minister rankings will be disappointing for National’s Luxon, who plunged to 17%, a 5% drop on the last 1News Kantar Public poll.
To add insult to injury, Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins picked up almost all of those points, rising to 27%, a 4% jump on his previous result.
Act Party leader David Seymour is steady on 6%, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is up 1% to 3%, and some still hung on to former prime minister Jacinda Ardern, with the Mt Albert MP on 2%, down 3% on the last poll,
National must be wondering what to do with Christopher Luxon. As leader it is clear that he is not up to scratch, people do not like him and do not trust him.
The interesting dynamic is the surge to the left and to the right minor parties. Clearly the electorate is becoming increasingly polarised.
Stand by it is going to be a hell of a year …
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- Release: Labour will deliver largest Police service in historyA Labour Government will deliver a further increase of 300 additional frontline Police officers, new ways to crackdown on gangs and strengthen legal protections against stalking and harassment. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens welcome launch of Te Ohu Tāmaki and challenges other parties on housingThe Green Party is welcoming the launch of Te Ohu Tāmaki, and affirms its commitment to clear the social housing waitlist in 5 years - and challenges other parties to say they will do the same. ...2 weeks ago
- National put climate action into reverse gearThe National Party’s plan to install EV chargers while at the same time making it harder for people to buy an EV is bizarre and ridiculous. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Hipkins sets out plan to grow NZ economyLabour leader Chris Hipkins has set out his top five priorities for growing the economy which include ambition for New Zealand to be a global leader in sustainable agriculture and renewable energy. ...2 weeks ago
- Former Wellington Mayor Andy Foster To Stand For New Zealand FirstFormer Wellington Mayor Andy Foster has announced he is standing for New Zealand First in the Mana electorate for the upcoming election. “As a former Mayor of our Capital City, Andy has an exceptional resume and level of professional and governance experience that will be an asset to the team.” ...2 weeks ago
- 10 of our favourite Chris Hipkins momentsIt’s Chris Hipkins’ birthday today, and to celebrate we’re taking a look back at some of his most defining moments. During his time at Parliament, he’s led New Zealand through some difficult times, delivered change that will make a real difference to Kiwis' lives, and given us a few laughs. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Show us your costingsRevelations on Newshub tonight that National only got an expert to review their tax plan two days after it was released adds further fuel to the call for Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis to release all costings and advice they have received on it, Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson said. ...3 weeks ago
- National’s climate pledge a jokeToday’s pledge from the National Party to deliver net zero carbon by 2050 is a bad-faith, disingenuous, and empty promise. ...3 weeks ago
- Glenfield Policy AnnouncementNo MP pay rises until essential workers get one first. The pay freeze for parliamentarians is due to end this year, with a hefty pay rise forecasted. The fact is when this announcement was made that Members of Parliament would receive a pay rise, in the middle of an ...3 weeks ago
- Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...16 hours ago - Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-upAnother $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...17 hours ago
- Taupō Supercars revs up with Government supportThe future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...18 hours ago
- There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarterThe economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...20 hours ago
- Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springsThe Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...21 hours ago
- More support for victims of migrant exploitationTemporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...2 days ago
- Strong export boost as NZ economy turns cornerAn export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...2 days ago
- Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te KarakaThe Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...2 days ago
- Further business support for cyclone-affected regionsThe Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...2 days ago
- New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underwayDefence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...2 days ago
- Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General AssemblyForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...3 days ago
- Midwives’ pay equity offer reachedAround 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...7 days ago
- New Zealand provides support to MoroccoAotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...1 week ago
- Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilienceThe Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...1 week ago
- Government invests in Greymouth’s futureThe Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...1 week ago
- Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ MeetingForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...1 week ago
- PREFU shows no recession, growing economy, more jobs and wages ahead of inflationEconomy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...1 week ago
- New cancer centre opens in ChristchurchPrime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...1 week ago
- Government invests in top of the south’s roading resilience$12 million to improve the resilience of roads in the Nelson, Marlborough and Tasman regions Hope Bypass earmarked in draft Government Policy Statement on land transport $127 million invested in the top of the south’s roads since flooding in 2021 and 2022 The Government is investing over $12 million to ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealanders continue to support the revitalisation of te reo as we celebrate Te Wiki o te Reo Mā...Ko tēnei te wiki e whakanui ana i tō tātou reo rangatira. Ko te wā tuku reo Māori, e whakanuia tahitia ai te reo ahakoa kei hea ake tēnā me tēnā o tātou, ka tū ā te Rātū te 14 o Mahuru, ā te 12 o ngā hāora i te ahiahi. ...2 weeks ago
- New Wildlife Act to better protect native speciesThe 70-year-old Wildlife Act will be replaced with modern, fit-for-purpose legislation to better protect native species and improve biodiversity, Minister of Conservation Willow-Jean Prime has announced. “New species legislation is urgently needed to address New Zealand’s biodiversity crisis,” Willow-Jean Prime said. “More than 4,000 of our native species are currently ...2 weeks ago
- Further safety initiatives for Auckland City CentreCentral and Local Government are today announcing a range of new measures to tackle low-level crime and anti-social behaviour in the Auckland CBD to complement Police scaling up their presence in the area. “Police have an important role to play in preventing and responding to crime, but there is more ...2 weeks ago
- Govt confirms additional support for Enabling Good LivesThe Government has confirmed $73.7 million over the next four years and a further $40.5m in outyears to continue to transform the disability support system, Minister for Disability Issues Priyanca Radhakrishnan has announced. “The Enabling Good Lives (EGL) approach is a framework which guides positive change for disabled people, ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand gets AAA credit rating from S&PStandard and Poor’s is the latest independent credit rating agency to endorse the Government’s economic management in the face of a deteriorating global economy. S&P affirmed New Zealand’s long term local currency rating at AAA and foreign currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. It follows Fitch affirming New ...2 weeks ago
- Appointment of Environment Court JudgeChristchurch barrister Kelvin Reid has been appointed as a Judge of the Environment Court and the District Court, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Mr Reid has extensive experience in Resource Management Act issues, including water quality throughout the South Island. He was appointed to the Technical Advisory Group advising the ...2 weeks ago
- NZ’s biggest ever emissions reduction project hits milestoneNew Zealand is on track to have greener steel as soon as 2026 with New Zealand Steel’s electric arc furnace project reaching a major milestone today. The Government announced a conditional partnership with New Zealand Steel in May to deliver the country’s largest emissions reduction project to date. Half of ...2 weeks ago
- Poroporoaki: Paki Leslie Māngai NikoraPokia ana te tihi Taiarahia e Hine-Pūkohu-rangi Hotu kau ana te manawa! Horahia ana te whārua o Ruātoki e te kapua pouri Tikaro rawahia ko te whatumanawa! Rere whakamuri kau ana te awa o Hinemataroa Ki te kawe i te rongo ki te mātāpuna i nga pōngaihu Maungapōhatu, tuohu ...2 weeks ago
- 50,000 charges laid in crack down on gangsPolice Minister Ginny Andersen has today congratulated Police in their efforts to crack down on gangs, after laying 50,000 charges against gang members and their associates through the hugely successful Operation Cobalt. As at 31 August, Police have: Laid 50,396 criminal charges against gang members and their associates Issued 64,524 ...2 weeks ago
- Farmers and cyclone-affected properties supported with tax rule changesThe Government has confirmed details of the tax changes to the bright-line test for cyclone-damaged properties, with the release of the required legislative amendments. Revenue Minister Barbara Edmonds has released a Supplementary Order Paper (SOP) to be considered by the Finance and Expenditure Committee in the next Parliament, as it ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand wins CPTPP dispute against CanadaMinister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O’Connor has welcomed the CPTPP Panel’s ruling in favour of New Zealand in our dispute against Canada, a significant win for our primary sector exporters. The Panel found that Canada’s dairy quota administration is inconsistent with its obligations under the Comprehensive and Progressive ...2 weeks ago
- New intensive turnaround programme launched to break the cycle of offendingThe next phase of the Government’s response to youth crime is underway, with an intensive programme for the country’s most prolific young offenders launched today in Auckland, Minister for Children Kelvin Davis said. The programme, announced by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in July, will see up to 60 recidivist young ...2 weeks ago
- Government extends report date for COVID inquiryThe Government has agreed to a request from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 for extra three months to deliver its final report. The Royal Commission was established in 2022 to strengthen New Zealand’s preparedness for any future pandemics. It was originally due to conclude mid-2024. “The Commission has ...2 weeks ago
- Wainuiomata school property upgrade making great progressThe Wainuiomata High School redevelopment is making great progress, with two more classroom blocks set to be complete by the end of the month, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. The Prime Minister visited today to see first-hand the progress of the redevelopment which is continuing at pace and is ...2 weeks ago
- Language week focuses on sustaining Lea Faka-TongaNew Zealand’s Tongan community are coming together to promote language sustainability this week, as Uike Lea Faka-Tonga – Tongan Language Week begins. “For our Pacific communities, language is more than just a means of communication. It’s an important way to link generations and maintain connections to our ancestral roots,” Barbara ...3 weeks ago
- Raw Politics: Hipkins' strange failure to fire
This week on the Raw Politics podcast: We ask why Labour leader Chris Hipkins has failed to fire, as his party would have hoped, in this campaign so far. Plus: this week's debate, the latest polls and how relatively good economic news changes things in the run-up to election day. ...58 mins ago - Minor parties get fired up over crime and punishment
Crime has been one of the dominant themes of this election campaign and it proved to be the hot button in the second televised debate this week. As Mark Jennings writes, the leaders of the minor parties were taking no prisoners in their battle for crucial votes. TV Viewers interested ...1 hour ago - Electorates to watch: Candidates fight for face time in Whanganui
Candidates are working hard to get better known ahead of the election ...2 hours ago - Return of the Ferns
Football, netball, cricket and rugby - it's all on for Kiwi women's sports teams across the globe this weekend. Merryn Anderson gives the lowdown on all the Ferns action. Did you think, with the wave of World Cups receding from our shores, women's sport was about ...2 hours ago - A bright idea for Naseby
A tiny town in Central Otago that's already on the world map – for something a little different – is set to notch up another first in a few weeks if its sky high ambitions go to plan. Not content with its world famous curling rink to draw visitors, Naseby, population ...2 hours ago - I don't want Te Pāti Māori choosing my electoral roll
The Māori party is attempting to take us back to 1975 when Māori did not have a choice ...2 hours ago - The major health crisis ignored by election campaigns
Former MP laments lack of aged care policy in the 2023 election ...2 hours ago - The Prime Ministerial peril of changing horses mid-stream
To lead Labour to victory, Chris Hipkins would have to repeat a unique feat ...2 hours ago - Mayor Brown's Auckland Deal is the real deal
Mayor is right when he says a new relationship between government and the council is required ...2 hours ago - Govt suggests barring development in climate-exposed areas
New National Policy Statement prioritises nature-based adaptation. ...2 hours ago - Daily crossword, Friday 22 September
...2 hours ago - Peters predicts being in government and a pre-Xmas mini-Budget
Winston Peters is predicting a mini-Budget before Christmas and says it will come from a government his party will help form with 'like-minded parties' after the election It was an eclectic and unexpected mix of current and former politicians who fronted the Business North Harbour finance debate on Thursday. Initially billed ...2 hours ago - Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 September
Loading...(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. ...3 hours ago - Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Labour defector Meka Whaitiri trails in latest poll
A third of voters remain undecided in the Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, a new poll is showing. ...7 hours ago - Grattan on Friday: Albanese government faces an uphill road and angry locals as it drives change to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Fire fear is gripping many Australians, with extremely high temperatures for September. One day this week some 20 schools on the New South Wales south coast were closed, amid rising weather risk. Sydney national parks ...8 hours ago - Cracks appear soon after show of unity from ACT, NZ First leadersAnalysis: David Seymour and Winston Peters indicated they could work together in government, but then went on to undermine each other in a lively debate. ...8 hours ago
- A Game Of Two Halves In Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
The Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is anyone’s game where a third of voters are yet to choose their candidate. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was flung open when former Labour minister, Meka Whaitiri, switched to Te Pāti Māori in May. A Whakaata Māori exclusive ...9 hours ago - Marama battles a fly, Winston gets heckled
While I’m sure the live broadcast is absolutely riveting, there’s something fun about sitting on a truly uncomfortable bench to watch the debate live. And there have already been a few moments that might not have made the telly. First up: Marama Davidson had a brief run in with a ...11 hours ago - Courts clogged by self-represented litigants, lawyers say; solutions proposedThe number of people representing themselves in civil cases has grown enormously in the past decade, prompting calls to relieve pressure on the court system. ...11 hours ago
- The Act-NZ First grand coalitionThe first section of tonight’s Newshub Nation Powerbrokers debate focused on co-governance, proving that mortal enemies David Seymour and Winston Peters may have more in common than they once thought. An early answer from Seymour prompted a quick eye roll from the Greens’ Marama Davidson, with Te Pāti Māori’s Debbie ...11 hours ago
- Coming up: The minor parties go head to headNewshub’s live Powerbrokers debate is at 7.30pm – and we couldn’t be more excited. A couple of us are in the studio as it all plays out and we’ll keep you up to date on any important moments. Because we’ve heard a lot from the Chrises on this campaign, but ...12 hours ago
- View from The Hill: Josh Frydenberg puts political ambition aside to remain in businessSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s decision to put a business future before an attempted political revival is a blow for the Liberal Party, but a relief for the teal member for Kooyong, Monique Ryan. Opposition ...12 hours ago
- Election 2023: Sarah Pallett, Hamish Campbell and Raf Manji vye for Ilam's voteIlam's candidates are out campaigning for the public's vote, an electorate with a split voter base. ...13 hours ago
- Chris Luxon stands firm on spilling any more beans on policy trade-offs ahead of electionNational's leader won't make clear post-election negotiation trade-offs his party might make beyond what's already been indicated. ...13 hours ago
- 'Shattered': Māori health board head says National plans a huge step backThe head of Te Punanga Ora says National's policies for changes to Māori health partnership boards would 'lock in' poorer health for whānau. ...14 hours ago
- How did Taylor Swift get so popular? She never goes out of styleSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Pattison, PhD Candidate, RMIT University Last week, USA Today/Gannett posted a job ad for a Taylor Swift reporter, seeking an experienced journalist and content creator to “capture the music and cultural impact of Taylor Swift”. It’s not the first time ...14 hours ago
- Excessive screen time can affect young people’s emotional developmentSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael Sharman, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast Shutterstock A recent Beyond Blue survey of more than 2,000 teachers identified mental ill-health and excessive screen time as the biggest problems facing their students. Comments from teachers ...14 hours ago
- A COVID inquiry has been announced. But is COVID still a thing? Do I need a booster?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Toole, Associate Principal Research Fellow, Burnet Institute Shutterstock Today’s announcement of an independent inquiry into Australia’s COVID response will examine how we’ve handled the pandemic and how we could better prepare for the next one.But ...14 hours ago
- Politics with Michelle Grattan: ANU Vice-Chancellor Brian Schmidt on the challenges universities fac...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Australia’s higher education sector is under heavy scrutiny. Still recovering from the impact of COVID and criticised for its treatment of staff, it faces strong pressures to step up its performance. The government launched a ...15 hours ago- NZ election 2023: Dear NZ, our foundations are in ruin and there’s no political courage for tomor...
COMMENTARY: By Martyn Bradbury Aotearoa New Zealand’s opposition – and poll leader — National Party’s three biggest donors have a combined net worth of $15 billion. The bottom 50 percent of NZ has $23 billion. The top 5 percent of New Zealanders own roughly 50 percent of New Zealand’s wealth, ...15 hours ago- Australia has officially given up on eradicating the Varroa mite. Now what?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cooper Schouten, Project Manager – Bees for Sustainable Livelihoods, Southern Cross University Varroa mites on drone pupae. Cooper Schouten/Southern Cross University, CC BY-SA The federal government body in charge of pest control has announced Australia will abandon efforts on eradicating the Varroa ...15 hours ago- Taxpayers' Union Welcomes ACTs Revised Alternative Budget
Commenting on the updates to ACT’s alternative budget, Taxpayers’ Union Policy Adviser, James Ross, said: “The only true tax cut is a spending cut, and we welcome ACT’s commitment to tackling the damage caused by 6 years of Labour’s dangerous ...15 hours ago- Moana Maniapoto challenges Winston Peters on campaign rhetoric
An interview that I missed earlier in the week that’s been doing the rounds on social media today. It’s a good watch. ...15 hours ago- Christmas Presents Head Off To Deployed New Zealand Defence Force Personnel
Thanks to the RNZRSA, a small piece of New Zealand is on its way to every member of the New Zealand Defence Force that will be deployed overseas this Christmas. <img src="https://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/2309/f4d24df4a1eb9d163b51.jpeg" ...16 hours ago- From ‘pebble in the shoe’ to future power broker – the rise and rise of te Pāti Māori
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annie Te One, Lecturer in Māori Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington In his maiden speech to parliament in 2020, te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi told his fellow MPs: You know what it feels like to have ...16 hours ago- Net zero by 2050? Too late. Australia must aim for 2035
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Howden, Director, ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National University Shutterstock This year’s heightened drumbeat of extreme weather shows us how little time we actually have to slash emissions. It is now clear that going ...16 hours ago- PNG’s immigration boss warns foreigners after arrest of NZ citizen
PNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s chief Immigration boss Stanis Hulahau has warned all foreign nationals in the country that the office will not hesitate to detain and expel them if found engaging in criminal and illegal activities. Chief executive Hulahau issued the stern warning to all foreign nationals in the ...16 hours ago- The door knocking experience that made Hinurewa te Hau smile
In the build up to October 14, we’ve asked a smattering of MPs and candidates from across the country for their favourite door knocking story from the campaign. Today: National’s candidate for the Māori seat of Tāmaki Makaurau, Hinurewa te Hau. We are door knocking the Māori seat of Tāmaki ...16 hours ago- Newsletter: September 21 2023 – Items of interest and importance today
New Zealand Politics Daily is a collation of the most prominent issues being discussed in New Zealand. It is edited by Dr Bryce Edwards of The Democracy Project. NZ Politics Daily: 21 September 2023 COALITION ARRANGEMENTS Felix Desmarais (1News): Kiwis want to know if Luxon will work with Peters Chris Trotter: Calling the ...16 hours ago- Orange Roughy Catch Limit A Good Start, But Seamount Trawling Ban Necessary, Say Environmentalists
Environmentalists have welcomed news that the orange roughy catch will be cut by 40%, but say the need for a bottom trawling ban on seamounts is more urgent than ever. Oceans and Fisheries Minister Rachel Brooking announced a cut to the orange ...16 hours ago- WorkSafe Job Losses Another Reminder Of Risks To Public Services This Election
Working people will bear the brunt of WorkSafe’s proposal for a deep and wide restructuring that was announced today said the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions. “Reducing WorkSafe’s capacity and capability is the wrong thing to be undertaking ...16 hours ago- Curious Kids: what came first, the chicken or the egg?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ellen K. Mather, Adjunct Associate Lecturer in Palaeontology, Flinders University Shutterstock/Edited by The Conversation What came first, the chicken or the egg? — Grace, age 12, Melbourne Hi Grace! Thanks for this great question. It’s an age-old dilemma ...16 hours ago- Government Penalises Sustainable Forestry In The ETS
The government announced today that it will impose an annual $30 per hectare charge on forestry projects that use exotic trees in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This will be another nail in the coffin of sustainable forestry and climate action ...17 hours ago- Health And Safety Of Workers At Risk With WorkSafe Restructuring Proposal
Workplaces will be less safe following WorkSafe’s decision to significantly restructure the organisation, says the Public Service Association. WorkSafe today unveiled restructuring plans which, if implemented, would significantly impact the organisation’s workforce, ...17 hours ago- I started reading Dan Carter’s self-help book for a joke. I finished it a changed man
The Art of Winning has been on the bestseller list for over a month now. Sam Brooks, who is only vaguely familiar with the concept of Dan Carter, reviews – and is surprised by what he finds. I have never, in my life, seen a minute of Dan Carter playing ...17 hours ago- I started reading Dan Carter’s self-help book for a joke. I finished it a changed man
The Art of Winning has been on the bestseller list for over a month now. Sam Brooks, who is only vaguely familiar with the concept of Dan Carter, reviews – and is surprised by what he finds. I have never, in my life, seen a minute of Dan Carter playing ...17 hours ago- Act revises proposed tax cuts after Prefu
The Act Party has adjusted its alternative budget after last week’s pre-election fiscal update (Prefu). It’s seen the party amend its proposed tax cuts, which would now be phased in over a period between 2023 and 2027. The lowest tax rate would still be adjusted to 17.5%, applying to all ...17 hours ago- Act revises proposed tax cuts after Prefu
The Act Party has adjusted its alternative budget after last week’s pre-election fiscal update (Prefu). It’s seen the party amend its proposed tax cuts, which would now be phased in over a period between 2023 and 2027. The lowest tax rate would still be adjusted to 17.5%, applying to all ...17 hours ago- Stripping Russia’s veto power on the Security Council is all but impossible. Perhaps we should exp...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamsin Phillipa Paige, Senior Lecturer, Deakin University Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has lambasted the UN Security Council yet again, saying in a speech this week that as long as Russia has veto power on the body, it will remain powerless to do ...17 hours ago- Watch: ACT leader David Seymour reveals alternative budget
ACT has unveiled changes to its alternative budget, including softening its tax cuts, delaying its defence funding boost, and speeding up superannuation age rises. ...17 hours ago- Watch: ACT leader David Seymour reveals alternative budget
ACT has unveiled changes to its alternative budget, including softening its tax cuts, delaying its defence funding boost, and speeding up superannuation age rises. ...17 hours ago- National’s peaked in the polls, claims Hipkins
Chris Hipkins has conjured up a new attack line related to National’s poll performance: they’ve peaked. Speaking to reporters in Napier, the Labour leader was asked to comment on the latest 1News Verian poll released last night. It showed National 10 points ahead of Labour on 37% to 27%. But ...17 hours ago- National’s peaked in the polls, claims Hipkins
Chris Hipkins has conjured up a new attack line related to National’s poll performance: they’ve peaked. Speaking to reporters in Napier, the Labour leader was asked to comment on the latest 1News Verian poll released last night. It showed National 10 points ahead of Labour on 37% to 27%. But ...17 hours ago- Taxpayers’ Union Welcomes National’s Plan To Revive The International Education Sector
Responding to National’s four step plan to boost international enrolments across Tertiary Education Institutions, Taxpayers' Union Deputy Campaigns Manager, Connor Molloy said: “At a time when universities all over the country are reporting crushing ...17 hours ago- Cost Recovery Bill Of More Than $14 Million A Year Another Kneecap For Forestry
The Forest Owners Association (FOA) says the just announced cost recovery scheme for the Emissions Trading Scheme is another government disincentive to plant forests just when they are most needed. President Grant Dodson says the huge jump to a more ...17 hours ago- Are Australia’s roads becoming more dangerous? Here’s what the data says
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Stevenson, Professor of Urban Transport and Public Health, The University of Melbourne In 2022, there were nearly 1,200 road crash deaths in Australia – a figure that has remained largely the same over the past decade. However, some states and territories ...17 hours ago- Election 2023: Law and order debate sees fiery clash of policy
"They're crook ... but they hold people up with a silver pen rather than a gun." ...18 hours ago- Election 2023: Law and order debate sees fiery clash of policy
"They're crook ... but they hold people up with a silver pen rather than a gun." ...18 hours ago- Zero alcohol doesn’t mean zero risk – how marketing and blurred lines can be drinking triggers
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With the Maori Party there is now a way for the west to retain power.
? 😉
[Oops I meant left!. Will correct – MS!]
Thank goodness the National Party has no understanding of the blindingly, toe-curlingly obvious … and it's been obvious for many months:
.https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-26-07-2022/#comment-1902150
“I think it’s highly likely Luxon will be replaced before the election. Sure, people can say “no, not another change”, but it would be a worse mistake to persist with somebody so ill-suited for the job, so out of his depth.”
(see dozens of similar comments, not just from me but by anyone who's … awake?).
To repeat my earlier prediction: Nicola by May.
hope not.
Me too; and Judarth before him. If only Judarth were still at the helm, instead of being just the Nats spokesperson for Science Innovation and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Land Information, and Digitising Government.
The Luxon Slump – it's a thing.
phallus head may need a little Blue pill to resurrect his electable dysfunction
Interesting – if (and, like all polls, it's a big 'if') this was to be the result after election day, and if (not such a big if) Te Pāti Māori at least held on to Waiariki, then might it give the redneck NAct MPs and their campaign managers pause for thought? Time will tell.
The person with some explaining to do is Farrar. The Roy Morgan had the Greens on 12% and this one has them on 11%. Farrar's Curia poll of a few days ago has them dropping to under 6%.
My impression is that Morgan usually has the Greens too high, but Farrah has got the Greens’ direction of travel completely wrong. The charitable interpretation is that Farrar's poll is a rogue or it has a methodological error of some sort. Other, less charitable, explanations are also possible.
"Other, less charitable, explanations are also possible." I would bet on that.
I have done one of those surveys. The questions are loaded and difficult not to answer in favour of the right.
it takes a bit of thinking to understand the question’s and not give the answer thats wanted.
taxpayer Curia polls are a fucking rort.
I have been to the same movie as you with Curia. You say "it takes a bit of thinking to understand the questions and not give the answer that's wanted."
I distinctly remember thinking (and wanting to say) "You can't ask me that, like that. it's not scientific."
If that's true, Peter (and I'm not saying it's not), David Farrar had best be careful. It's only a matter of time before they inavertantly phone a journalist who realises there's a story in this.
Aotearoa is a small place and damned hard to keep political secrets hidden.
Farrar always has an agenda. His Green poll numbers will have been doctored to give the media the headline "Greens close to crashing out" which RNZ was dumb enough to use in its bulletins on the Farrar poll.
Meanwhile Farrar made comments on RNZ's The Panel (see my post a few days ago) supporting the Israeli law changes that emasculate the Israeli Supreme Court and bolster the current right-wing extremist government. These changes have led to some of the biggest protests ever seen in Israel-Farrar was spectacularly wrong again…or is he in the pocket of the Zionists?.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64929563
I do remember the all-expenses paid trip that Cameron Slater appeared to have to Israel. I also remember the pro-Israeli government propaganda that preceded and followed by both him and the Spanish bride on Whaleoil. From my reading of it, I took from it that the Slaters were fully into a genocide program against all Palestinians.
It wouldn't surprise me that the largess that provided him with that trip was spread more widely.
Interesting. I think we should be told.
Surely Farrar reads TS?
too me, the big take is the rise in the green vote. the changing climate is going to be the big factor in the election, as pretty much everybody(even maureen) now realise the obvious, and most kiwis are thinking green. even the rednecks. water quality and the threat of privatisation has also made many think green. bad health and bad weather turns everybody socialist.
By that polling, not counting whatever rump is in Labour, that’s 48% of the country for doing nothing about climate change.
And the current PM has just canceled parts of the successful clean car scheme and other things, so it is difficult to call Labour votes pro-climate action votes.
So we’ve whittled down our climate response to will we follow the ACT line and leave everyone affected to the mercy of the insurance companies or after each event, will we continue trying to throw whatever cash can be freed up at the problem?
Our biggest ever cyclone and rain fall and the result is about 4% for the Greens, maybe.
What a waste that 100% pure branding was! 100% equity loss, 100% road closures…we’ll give a couple of bucks to an appeal, but stop driving an urban tank or even mildly support cyclists or find a farming leader who’ll tell farmers they should be part of the solution…
That’s some sad polling.
It's not that bad. The same poll shows climate change as issue no. 2 for voters (cost of living is top, as expected). So it's above e.g. crime, despite all the negative headlines.
But what does climate change as an issue mean here?
There’s a huge difference between will I get bailed out if trouble hits which is a massive climate change concern, to will I support expensive (but comparatively cheap) infrastructure and lifestyle changes necessary to reduce the future impact of climate change. We’re not remotely on track to meet our obligations climate wise.
Seems like a mash-up. Perhaps we'll emerge, butterflies??
I know that National has dropped a bit. But would Labour really be that happy about the result? After all, they have had a popular change of leader, and all the media attention with the recent flooding etc. So, maybe they would have been looking for more of a gap than that. Because it is still very close with the election quite awhile away.
Nah. Luxon's deflating and out of puff.
The next real leader of the National party has not landed yet…….
Stuck at the jaw-oiling stage? Still needing some gloss applied to those dead-fish eyes?
The Bene Tleilaxu always struggled with eyes – I'm sure the vats are brimming with promising new gholas already.
Chriscialus Luxon is suffering from premature electoral popularity now his peak popularity has past. National may have to abort this leader and find another who is not a christian brother.National voters may vote Labour again to keep the greens and the Maori party out in the cold.
The resting state of the nation has been to be finely balanced between progressive and conservative for pretty much since 1996 (the exception being 2020 during the pandemic). That is the benefit of not being able to gerrymander electorates to get the (usually) National result wanted.
Most coalitions have been a matter of just a 1-4 seats in majority. There have been a few cases like the 47th parliament in 2002 where it could have been closer to 8 with the non-coalition support of the Greens. But mostly just a few parliamentary seats in it.
But what is interesting with all polling is the trend. It has been uniformly against Labour and for a National coalition since the 2020 election. Now it isn't…
It hit the usual middle steady start last year for a close race between Labour and National.
Same on the bloc side
So yeah – this is good news for progressives. It means that a conservatives coalition is looking less likely in October at present.
You can't look at the numbers directly – you look at trends. BTW: That wikipedia page is excellent and up to date.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
Luxon tries for gravitas, trips over himself, and comes off as a snoozey bore.
The disingenuous way Luxon reined in the fing useless Maureen Pugh made him look like a complete tool.
Just had a look at the trends for the 2020 election as a comparison (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election)
Around this time in 2020, Simon Bridges was still leader and the Nats replaced him with Muller in May. Muller was replaced by Collins in July but in hindsight that was because of Muller's health issues. But, it shows they would be prepared to do a leadership switch even as close to election date as May – June, if it made sense. But, who would they replace Luxon with? My guess would be Paul Goldsmith, but Michael Woodhouse is the Shadow Leader. Or, they could try to take advantage of Jacinda being replaced by a male and put up Nicola Willis as an attempt at a Jacinda-style leadership.
I still think, however, that National's biggest hurdle is its behind-the-throne leadership. In my opinion, ever since Simon Bridges, each National leader has reflected more the ageing-boomer image than someone who will enter parliament after election night, roll up their sleeves and get things done for the people of this country. I've suggested before that Luxon seems to be trying to appeal to National party leadership than the swinging voters. If National's leadership replace Luxon with another person who continues that trait, they might as well keep Luxon.
But all is not roses for the left. At this time in the last election cycle, Jacinda was above 40% popularity and it just went up from there. It looks good for Hipkins, but we are still far off another result like in 2020.
They should replace Luxon of course, but it's not just who, it's how.
2017 worked for the (then) opposition because Little chose to quit. 2020 didn't work because Bridges was knifed. Party united vs party divided, total contrast.
Willis will probably oust Luxon, but it would be far better for National if Luxon "did an Andrew Little". Given all we know about his inflated self-regard, not much chance of that.
yes, luxon is only there because he was promised leadership .
Observer your "…doing an Andrew Little" comment made me laugh. Before Andrew Little, we boys' school pupils were brought up on the phrase "…doing a Captain Oates", in reference to Scott's ill-fated 1912 south pole expedition.
We were encouraged to learn from his brave sacrifice that was the only possible chance his companions had of survival. In adulthood, however, we learn that he was so riddled with frostbite he must have known death was not far away and he probably did what he did just to rid himself of a painful end.
It made me imagine the National Party caucus inside their tent as the blizzard of unpopularity rages outside, their icy, frostbitten fingers clutching the latest Colmar Brunton poll that points to their inability to reach election base camp and to their being doomed to endure the frosty poll results until their final, misty breaths. Somewhere in the corner (yes, I know its a circular tent) kneels Judith Collins, deep in prayer, just in case TV1 is nearby.
Suddenly, Captain Luxon stands up and opens the tent flap "I am going outside" he says "And I may be some time"…
Great extended image, Thinker.
I thought yesterday of the remaining National caucus members who, facing the prospect of another three years outside the tent in the blizzard eating corned beef and biscuit whilst looking in at the feasting, slink away to their places under post-political corporate board tables and gnaw on the bones tossed to them.
I wouldn't expect such spare, clean language from Mr Luxon. Something more like this perhaps:
"Hey look, what I'm saying is that all the indicators are going in the wrong direction, we need to power up our strategic thinking and deliver. We need to rationalise our human resources in line with weather conditions and future high-probability scenarios so that we are all delivering value in ways that are aligned to the vision we have for hard-working polar explorers keeping more of their own lives and getting ahead. As a former CEO I am unequalled in my humility concerning the superiority of my talent for making hard decisions, cutting out waste and delivering. I am optimising the value chain by shrinking it across multiple cost-time dimensions operationally. This takes effect – immediately. Goodbye."
Brilliant, AB. Can you do the accent as well?
Backing a losing flag is one thing, but to oust Luxon would be to admit Sir John backed the wrong man, and that's gonna hurt at least some of the party faithful.
"The only person within National capable of challenging Luxon, Nicola Willis, rates just one per cent in the poll behind even Jacinda Ardern, who is on two per cent. That would indicate that a challenge to Luxon is highly unlikely.
Continue reading at https://www.politik.co.nz/no-more-time-for-words-hipkins-becomes-action-man/ | Politik"
No, it doesn’t quite work that way. Hipkins is a fine example of an enormous boost in ‘preference’ after becoming Leader.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#Preferred_prime_minister
However, any aspiring leader would want their name on the board of the ‘sexy six’ in order to enjoy the free media exposure
2020 was a pandemic election, and the population voted for the government who hadn't screwed up a existential challenge. We're unlikely to see that again for a while.
2017 was kind of weird as well. That was "thank a deity, they've given me someone I can vote for".
For god sakes, let's do everything in our power to keep him in place!
Our last undercover operative, JC, was uncovered and dumped! Let's not repeat that mistake.
Simply put, Luxon is our best chance to keep Nats/ACT out of power. Let's not stuff this one up.
Disagree.
If I was a one-man selection panel, I'd replace the Luxon-Willis ticket with Sam Uffindell and Maureen Pugh.
+100
The fucking useless perverts. As described by their own. Perfect.
+100 from me. perfect combination. covers all the nat fan groups.
No, I rather fancy the Nataliban: Simeon Brown and Chris Penk!
“If I was a one-man selection panel, I’d replace the Luxon-Willis ticket with Sam Uffindell and Maureen Pugh.”
One can but dream…
I'm not sure that I'd like the Act vote to grow that high..
Indeed – the mutter 'Electorate vote National party vote ACT' is growing by the day in Pubs outside the main centres
The National Party may not last for much longer at this rate!
On the issue of the Greens, it's worth noting that overseas Kiwis casting Special Votes usually favour the Green Party. They almost always gain one MP after "Specials" are counted, and National and/or Labour lose one.
I'd always add an extra percentage point to whatever polling figures show, or on election night.
Kantar/TVNZ really should explain their numbers here. There's a big discrepancy between the party vote total (which gets to 100% once you add in all the 1% parties) and the preferred PM numbers, which leave around 40% unaccounted for. What did those respondents say?
It's seriously misleading – unprofessional, even – to eliminate "don't knows" on one measure but then include them on the other. Apples and oranges.
33% answered Don’t know if there’s anyone they’d prefer as PM.
https://www.scribd.com/document/631200489/March-2023-1News-Kantar-Public-Poll-Report-Day-1
[this initial link no longer works – Incognito]
"33% answered Don’t know if there’s anyone they’d prefer as PM."
Doesn't surprise me.
Half of them have probably heard the name "Chris Hipkins" for the first time and no nothing about him.
The other half fell for the anti-Ardern line and now she's gone they don't know either.
It doesn't bode well for Luxon that so many no longer know.
The Know Nothing Party
The no Zealand Party …
James Bond’s Epic Battle with Self Doubt and Doctor No
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNSw1TeCRBc
They chose to start the film series with the book with the simplest narrative storyline.
Blast! My Previous link got deleted:
New updated link: https://www.scribd.com/document/631263164/1News-Kantar-Public-Poll-Report-March-2023
Well, that made Mutch Mckay's eyes pop out, she is finding it increasingly difficult to spin the polls to suit National.
There are more MPs lining up to defend Luxon in just one article than there were for Ardern in 5 years.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/485945/national-mps-defend-luxon-over-falling-popularity-i-see-the-man-that-you-don-t-see
Usual rule applies: if you have to keep saying there's no issue with the leadership, there's obviously an issue with the leadership.
This is an easy MMP election to call.
First the history
1996. Winston divides the opposition vote and keep National in power (a good man returns to his roots and then gets shafted and learns his lesson).
1999. Change after 3 terms.
2002. The left falls apart and there is Labour coalition with the sensible centre United.
2005. WP goes with the largest party (Labour 41-39 over National), once again enabling a third term government (as in 1996).
2008-2014. Change after 3 terms. National is narrowly again and again the only party capable of forming a government (playing off ACT and MP to reduce their influence).
2017. Change after 3 terms. WP this time gets involved in the formation of a new government (on balance the need for a change to more economic justice for workers and more public funding – such as PGF).
2020. One party government enabled by centrists to block a Labour-Green coalition. The rejection of NZF resulting in WP determining not to support Labour again.
2023. The most likely outcome is a minority government.
WP will not back a NACT coalition. Nor form one with ACT. He is then reduced to supporting National with confidence and supply and leave ACT no option but to do the same.
So either this has a majority, or it does not.
If not, then Labour can form a minority government with confidence and supply from Green and the MP. This allows the new PM to cast it as him and Luxon, Labour or National. If WP neutralises ACT extremism, Labour will have to be precise as to how a coalition (with Greens and MP) would govern, or operate as a minority government.