election 2014

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Growing the Left vote

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 6:49 am, February 5th, 2013 - 279 comments

At the moment the Left and Right political blocs are poised more or less evenly in the polls. So how do we grow the Left vote to win in 2014?

Living together

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 7:32 am, February 3rd, 2013 - 128 comments

There’s a thought in some parts of Labour that they need to ‘put the Greens in their place’, then they will get back the votes that the Greens have taken from them, and that will lead to victory. It’s an Underpants Gnome strategy, missing the crucial link of how doing what they want to do emotionally results in the supposed objective. Better to build together.

Deja vu all over again: Labour in 2014 edition

Written By: QoT - Date published: 2:00 pm, January 13th, 2013 - 104 comments

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here: a Labour victory in 2014 isn’t necessarily better than a National victory in 2014.

And Fairfax makes three

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 11:03 am, December 9th, 2012 - 56 comments

After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.

The enemy is still not your friend

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 10:37 am, December 8th, 2012 - 95 comments

It’s pretty clear: the Greens have managed to hold on to the massive gain they made during the last election campaign, largely at Labour’s expense as it imploded. Labour’s back to its pre-campaign level, at National’s expense. Lab+Green=Nat or thereabouts but the Left needs a good 5% more from the Right to feel confident. So, this is not the time to be listening to John Armstrong’s advice.

Ministers in a Lab/Green govt

Written By: James Henderson - Date published: 7:32 am, December 4th, 2012 - 143 comments

Paddy Gower looked fit to burst with excitement over ‘Greens and Labour fighting over Finance portfolio‘ last night. Of course, the actual quote not so exciting – just Russel Norman saying it was one portfolio that would be the subject of negotiations in the formation of a Lab/Green govt. But it does raise a valid question – who would be ministers in a Lab/Green govt?

Why I’m still worried

Written By: Zetetic - Date published: 8:10 am, November 30th, 2012 - 90 comments

Labour may still be well below its 2008 election result, when it was chucked out after 3 terms, but, thanks to the doubling of Greens support, Labour+Green is level pegging with National in the latest Roy Morgan. Add New Zealand First, and the opposition is well clear. Except, that’s not an election winning scenario for the Left.

3 out of 3

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 11:24 pm, November 18th, 2012 - 39 comments

First Gillard, then Miliband, now Shearer – three Labour leaders who have completely turned things round with one speech. The result for Shearer – an energised Labour Party ready to work for victory in 2014, and plenty for kiwis to talk about over the Christmas break.

Shuffle the caucus deck

Written By: lprent - Date published: 12:06 pm, November 12th, 2012 - 95 comments

By all means, get rid of the unfortunate experiment that is the David Shearer leadership. But the problem is really with the NZLP’s parliamentary caucus who appear to have lost sight of what we want them to achieve. Until that problem is fixed the party will continue to shed people willing to exert effort supporting them.

It really is the economy, stupid

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 7:18 am, October 29th, 2012 - 112 comments

The latest Roy Morgan also includes a poll of what people think is the single most important issue facing New Zealand.It makes informative reading. Jobs is the largest: 1 in 5 consider it the most important issue. Combined, the economic categories are 57% of people’s top issue, up from 49% a year ago, and 43% the year before that.

Supernumerary

Written By: James Henderson - Date published: 3:50 pm, October 22nd, 2012 - 100 comments

I’ve been thinking about what you might call a ‘good problem’ for the Left.. but it leads me to a ‘problem problem’. OK, so let’s say we win the next election – as the Left must do and should do given how unpopular the Nats’ policies are and, for the last year, how inept their political management has been. How do you share the economic portfolios out?

Collins’ faction tries to magic up an ally

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 9:32 am, October 2nd, 2012 - 35 comments

It’s been interesting to watch the Collins Faction of National talk down the Conservative Party all year. It’s not hard to see why – they occupy space/take votes that a Collins-led National would want for itself. What the Collins Faction would like is a decent liberal-right party. That would allow National to swing conservative and give up liberal votes to an ally, rather than to the Left.

Key / Peters 2014

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 9:21 am, September 27th, 2012 - 50 comments

John “power at any cost” Key isn’t ruling out a deal with Peters in 2014. Peters isn’t ruling it out either. Deputy PM Peters anyone?

National’s new slogan

Written By: Zetetic - Date published: 8:28 am, September 25th, 2012 - 23 comments

National – Conservative coalition

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 10:38 am, September 3rd, 2012 - 24 comments

The National – Conservative dream ticket for 2014 suffered a bit of a setback in the weekend, when Colin Craig pronounced Key “too gay for Helensville”. Note – this post is not satire.

Government in turmoil over spending cap

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 9:39 am, August 31st, 2012 - 20 comments

Conflict between support parties. The government without the majority needed for legislation. The Nats’ economic plans in turmoil. Thank goodness the country is in such safe, steady hands.

Turn off turnout – National’s 2014 strategy?

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 3:56 pm, August 27th, 2012 - 41 comments

Depress turnout among low-income voters by changing the enrolment rules – it’s an old right-wing trick. The Republicans are doing it in the US – it looks like National may try it on here. They should not succeed.

Strategy and opinion

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 8:21 pm, August 15th, 2012 - 150 comments

Thanks to Rob Salmond and Josie Pagani it is now clear that Labour’s pitch to the centre is an intentional strategy. That is helpful as now perhaps we can have a reasonable discussion about how well it’s working, and what else might work better.

Frankly Speaking: “John Banks: condition deteriorating”

Written By: Guest post - Date published: 3:05 pm, August 15th, 2012 - 18 comments

Frank Macskasy over at Frankly Speaking writes some very long posts that are often full of interesting information. This one does a good analysis of the recommendations from the Electoral Commission and various party positions on it. On the way through he has a good swipe at John Banks, who it would be safe to say, he considers to be political cabbage.

Race-baiting works, a little

Written By: Zetetic - Date published: 7:25 am, August 6th, 2012 - 163 comments

Meh. National has race-baited over water rights to win back some of its wavering lower-middle class Pakeha support. It’s won some of that support back. For now. The thing about turning tides is that not every wave, or even every set of waves for some time, reaches less far up the beach than the one lowest before. Within each cycle there are dips and spikes due to events. Doesn’t change the cycle.

The art of the possible

Written By: James Henderson - Date published: 10:19 am, June 20th, 2012 - 60 comments

The Nats’ latest defence of asset sales is ‘if Labour doesn’t say they’ll buy them back,then they secretly agree with the sales’. Well, we would all like Labour to be able to make that commitment but, in the real world, that would be irresponsible . The incoming government is going to have to know how the bad a states the Nats leave the books in first.

Peters smacks down Key

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 9:57 am, June 17th, 2012 - 52 comments

John Key started preparing the ground to work with NZF, looking to forge a “Save Super” platform for 2014. But Winston Peters smacked him down hard.

Unable to retire

Written By: Zetetic - Date published: 10:37 am, June 11th, 2012 - 11 comments

Sharples and Turia remind me of an old couple running the family store with no kids to pass it on to. They want to retire. If they do, that’ll be curtains for everything they’ve built. Without them, the Maori Party goes to a deserving death. Plus Key will be pressuring them to stay. They’re his only ghost of a chance. How much longer can they keep going? They’ll be 72 and 70 in 2014.

Polls and elections

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 9:14 am, May 19th, 2012 - 21 comments

Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline. And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.

Another MMP rort?

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 11:50 am, May 4th, 2012 - 44 comments

The media are doing a good job investigating John Banks’ donation history. The Police are presumably also doing theirs, and it seems clear that the matter must end up in Court and the issue of who is telling the truth will be decided by a judge. Some in the media have dismissed the question of any threat to National’s majority. Short-term maybe, long-term I’m not so sure.

Will the Greens lead the next government?

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments

Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…

Nat revolt over Crafars sale

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 9:15 am, March 4th, 2012 - 70 comments

Remember the hagiographies after the first hundred days of National’s first term? In the second term, things couldn’t be more different. The Sunday-Star Times has printed dozens of emails it obtained (a leak?) that were sent to Key opposing the sale of Crafar farms. Many of them are brutal comments from former National supporters. Key didn’t even provide comment for the article.

Greens becoming the new opposition leaders

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 9:00 am, February 20th, 2012 - 242 comments

Last night, I saw Kevin Hague on the news talking about mine safety – mining, West Coast, labour rights, and no Labour voice. Same with minimum wage and asset sales. A hungry Green Party is leading issues while Labour appears immobilised. No wonder Metiria Turei is saying they won’t play little sibling; I see them being a third or more of the next governing coalition.

Don’t celebrate too soon

Written By: Zetetic - Date published: 7:34 am, February 17th, 2012 - 63 comments

National’s in retreat on every front. Its had to break its economic promises, again. Asset sales are a disaster. Ministers are exposed over the Crafar Farms, NZ on Air, and DJ Key affairs. The media’s gone off Key ever since he declared war on them. The bad stories that were getting nowhere a year ago now keep rolling. Even Mallard’s boorishness can’t halt National’s slide. But don’t celebrate too soon.

Key gets what he wants at Waitangi

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 6:24 am, February 6th, 2012 - 171 comments

While Key was away on his 4-week holiday in Hawaii, the world economy deteriorated, reports on the dire state of poverty in our country came out, and access to strategic resources became a pressing issue – both with our farmland being bought and Iran threatening to close off the globe’s oil supply. But Key was working on a plan – to stoke up racial dissent at home.

Playing to lose

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 10:19 am, December 7th, 2011 - 88 comments

“That’s MMP for you” John Key smugly proclaimed in justification of his charter schools policy. Apparently, it’s MMP’s fault that he chose to rort the system and then us the one ACT MP as an excuse for unmandated rightwing policies. But why are the Nats suddenly acting so haughty and pushing through unmandated policies? The answer is MMP.