Christchurch East by election
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7:19 pm, November 30th, 2013 - 39 comments
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So far the results are looking good for Labour.
Labour Party candidate Poto Williams is leading in the Christchurch East by-election, with 20% of the votes counted.
Over a quarter of all the votes counted, ACT has 12 votes. 12. That is not a typo. They have 12 votes.
30% 86% of the votes counted. Electoral Commission site shows:
Williams (LAB) – 2846 – 6,263
Doocey (NAT) – 868 – 2,685
Moorhouse (GREEN) – 220 – 658
Williams taking 64% of the CHCh East vote so far compared with Dalziels 54% in 2011. Cheshire cats that look like Cunliffe?
Well done Labour and Williams!
there are now two independents, the Conservatives and the legalize cannabis party ahead of ACT. Social Credit close on his tails
96% of the vote. I’m calling it! Williams by 4000+ votes! Congratulations Poto!
100% votes counted now: Williams by 4,613 votes.
Final results:
Williams (LAB) – 8,119
Doocey (NAT) – 3,506
Moorhouse (GREEN) – 926
Baker (CNSP) – 487
Park (IND) – 75
Lambert (ALCP) -56
Veale (ACT) – 56
Holland (IND) – 31
Lictwark (NZDSC) – 20
Gaskin (IND) – 19
3 news reports on Williams victory:
Party leader David Cunliffe has congratulated his newest MP on her victory.
Our grassroots campaign in Christchurch East was run and won on the issues facing the city. On housing, insurance and standing up for people in the rebuild,” Mr Cunliffe said.
Ms Williams said she is “truly humbled” by the win.
Labour has held the Christchurch East seat since 1922 and at the last election Dalziel had a majority of more than 5000.
Last election just under 29,000 votes were cast giving Dalziel a majority of around 5300, there was some interest in whether National’s stronger support in the party vote might translate to more support in the by-election.
However this did not happen and the traditional low turnout for by-elections continued as well.
Labour will be pleased their heavy campaigning in the electorate paid off and will give some confidence to the caucus and members heading into election year. They will be hoping the increased support translates into party votes in the Canterbury area next year after it lost heavily in this area in the last election.
National will not be too concerned. Labour has held the seat for a very long time and no Government in modern history has taken an opposition seat in a by-election. However the failure to increase its share of the vote may set off a few gentle alarm bells.
The result for ACT appears to confirm the belief of many it is dead as a political force.
I agree with that assessment. A good boost for Labour. Death knell for ACT!
And Chris Hutching of the NBR got it so wrong!
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The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Matthew Doocey has achieved the impossible – made National miss Aaron Gilmore.
76.7% of the vote – Williams leads by 2,960
Hell of a bad day for the site to barf like that.
Makes me wonder if CloudFlare is more of a hindrance than a help…
“ACT and ALCP neck and neck in Christchurch By-election”
Wow. That’s a decisive victory. National will not be pleased.
Interesting to note that turnout decreased from 28,524 in 2011 to 13,318. That’s a decrease of over 15,000. A lot of people have left!
Even Cunliffe’s advertising on election day, which surely broke the law, didn’t get the voters out.
Botany by-election was 15k vs 28k in 2011
Similar with other by-elections.
Yep. And no big fuck off earthquake to contend with in Botany either. It actually looks to me like National supporters basically stayed at home.
Big congratulations to the team.
The interesting question is will the swing towards Labour in this by-election be as evident in the November 2014 election,
Should this be so then i would suggest that Christchurch electorates alone will be enough to kick Slippery’s bunch of used car salesmen back to the Opposition Benches where they belong,
Bit of a long bow to draw based upon a by-election with no Party Vote involved, congratulations on the win to Labour and Poto Williams,
And, in a stranger than fiction moment i have to congratulate the Green Party candidate for NOT getting too many votes but hopefully gaining a raised profile for the Green Party Vote in November 2014…
Just checked out the NZ Herald media site. Nothing on the home page about the byelection. Clicked through to National news. Nothing there either on the home page of that section. Zero.
The media barons are NOT impressed !
ACT and ALCP deadheated (hee hee)…
Yes, ACT got 0.42%. But our party vote there in 2011 was 0.34%. It’s Chch East after all. Red since QE2 was in nappies. A similar relative increase nationwide in 2014 would give ACT another MP
Lolz, so say you, looks like the snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory from where i sit…
“would give ACT another MP”
Another? Who would be the first?
Which is a very disingenuous thing to say, because a 23.5% rise in support off a very low base is easy.
It’s like these small companies that boast of 328% growth in sales within a year. Well, big whoop.
@ Steve Wrathall: CE has been “Red since QE2 was in nappies.’
Nuh. Largely thanks to the post-quake exodus, CE became a fundamentally Blue seat in 2011. You see, Steve, under MMP there’s a thing called “the party-vote”. It indicates which party people want in power, thus revealing a seat’s core political allegiance. In 2011, the Nats took 46% of the party-vote (with roughly another 4% voting for smaller right-wing parties like yours which supported a Nat-led Govt), and Labour received a mere 32%. Blue, not Red, big fella.
But looks like it may well go Red in 2014.
from NBR Chris Hutching:
“Labour leader David Cunliffe and some fellow MPs have also been in town, supporting hopeful Poto Williams but they don’t seem to have captured the media to the same degree.”
Hope this is continued nationally- where for example Cunliffe gets a picture next to the story about raising MPs pay in the Herald online, while there are all kinds of massaged and unquestioned publicity pieces for the blue corner…
the capture of the media is hopefully not reflected in the results that people are feeling…
@CV above there didn’t seem to be a video on the TVNZ site, meaning it hasn’t featured on the news, it doesn’t seem to be in the national news section anywhere. It seems if you have an earthquake happen to you you are big news until you want to vote about it…Certainly not in the headlines…Mr Hutching may have not got it so wrong…I tried to find some reaction video from the candidate, Cunliffe and Jim Anderton and haven’t had much luck…
Good result. But we shouldnt read too much into it. The true test is in a year’s time.
also note there is an extra 2 in front of the results above…front and centre on TV3, but no video yet.
A huge congratulations to Poto Williams and all the team behind her. Well done.
Though the score doesn’t show it, I heard a lot of things about the confidence and competence of David Morehouse’s campaign, things that will be taken to the general election. Both parties got a lot of good things out of this contest.
+1
National is in real trouble in Christchurch and they know it. At the recent local body elections the left took back control of the council for the first time in over 10 years. And yesterday’s result is just more of the same. Christchurch was a pivotal part of National winning in 2011 and will a pivotal part in them losing in 2014.
National has used the ‘disaster capitalism model’ and beaten the people of Christchurch over the head with it with it, safe in the knowledge that ‘if it doesn’t happen in Auckland, then it does happen.
Christchurch and Canterbury are ground zero for the new right running National. The only chance for the region now is to take back the country so that democracy can return to Canterbury. Three more years of National and it really will be game over. This election result is a very large increase for labour. Something that the initial NZ Herald article on the election result failed to mention. Let us hope it is a sign of things to come. It would be great if Labour could get the same swing against Brownlee.
Congrats to Poto, Jim Anderton and the Labour team – brilliant result!
No wonder national were in full swing pretending it hadnt leaned blue in 2011. Brownlee in full lying mode about how well nats had done. The average punter stands no chance against the avalanche of deception
I can’t see a NZ First candidate in the list in the post? Did they stand a candidate? Because if not, that might explain why the Conservative candidate got 487 votes and about 3%.
No NZ First candidate. So your point is valid. Therefore, it was ignored by all media.
Don’t confuse the Colin Craig cheerleaders with facts!
My thoughts exactly, Scott. Well spotted!
And according to the Elections Commission, Con Party candidate Leighton Baker got 522 votes in 2011, and only 487 votes this time. Which seems to indicate that the Con total turnout went down over two years!
However, the Conservatives share of the vote is up compared with the party vote share in 2011:
Party vote 2011 = 2.15%
Baker vote in 2013 = 3.66%
But NZ First got 6.26% of the party vote in 2011. Not sure where those votes would have gone in the by election.
“But NZ First got 6.26% of the party vote in 2011. Not sure where those votes would have gone in the by-election.”
Partly to Labour * / very, very slightly (at best) to the Cons / but mainly, I’d suggest, into non-voting.
*(NZ First voters’ candidate-vote went heavily to Dalziel in 2011)
In other words, the Cons benefit if there’s a low voter turnout. Which implies that we need greater voter mobilisation in 2014.
It could be partly due to the smaller amount of parties contesting the by election. But, the Nats lost around 10% of their vote share in the by election – so it’s the Nats that were the biggest losers.
Not if some of the cons vote has gone red, as it may have done here.
Or if familiarity breeds contempt, plenty of which I intend to make sure that the Conservatives are on the receiving end over the next year…
as old snapper clark would say when we were felling rimu on the moonlight in the arahura vallley.
shit in carrying a pig.
tee hee.