Daily review 05/10/2020

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, October 5th, 2020 - 79 comments
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79 comments on “Daily review 05/10/2020 ”

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  1. Muttonbird 1
    5 October 2020 at 6:20 pm

    This Ohau thing is weird. Everyone now says it's always been a risk yet they still built there.

    indecision

    • Ad 1.1
      5 October 2020 at 7:25 pm

      Christchurch was like that.

      • Muttonbird 1.1.1
        5 October 2020 at 9:11 pm

        I'd be interested to read the info saying Christchurch specifically was an earthquake risk before the city was founded.

        • Ad 1.1.1.1
          5 October 2020 at 9:26 pm

          Before Christchurch or Wellington or Napier was founded there were no geotech reports done.

          Before Invercargill or Greytown or Queenstown was founded there were no flooding assessments done.

          Before Auckland was founded there were no volcano risk or sea level rise reports reports done.

          I'm not even sure Maui had any sense either.

          Blaming people when their life has just literally gone up in flames is just so shitty.

          • Muttonbird 1.1.1.1.1
            5 October 2020 at 10:01 pm

            I'm not blaming the residents. I'm blaming the developer and the local council which signed off on it. Risk reporting has come a long way since the mid 19th century. I naturally assumed such risk is taken into account these days. Obviously not.

            • Ad 1.1.1.1.1.1
              5 October 2020 at 10:17 pm

              What evidence do you have of negligence on anyone's part? Not even the local lines company is prepared to rise to that inhuman bait. Maybe you could wait until the ashes cooled down before pointing the fingerbone.

              By your measure of blaming Councils and developers for fire risk to property, QueenstownLakes should be liable for fire risk from Queenstown's own pine forests with homes subdivided right beside them or for subdivision around Wanaka's Mt Iron

              https://www.nzgeo.com/stories/wildfire-2/

              But then you'd have to do the same shitty blame game for … Te Anau, Hawea, Makaora, all towns on the West Coast from south to north, Chrischurch's Port Hills, Golden Bay, any settlement near any national park, Taupo, Tokoroa, Kinleith, Gisborne, Auckland suburbs like Titirangi and Glen Eden and Albany … in fact anywhere with a stand of trees.

              Hold your breath and wait for the inquiry.

              • Muttonbird …
                5 October 2020 at 10:31 pm

                Fed Farmers and the local mayor have already been casting blame around. They of course want to see DoC and any other environmental conscience gone from the region so they can plant green dairy circles across the region.

                You seem to want the same which is disappointing.

              • lurgee …
                6 October 2020 at 10:16 am

                Maybe you could wait until the ashes cooled down before pointing the fingerbone.

                You mean this isn't a time to ask questions, but a time to offer thoughts and prayers?

        • Pat 1.1.1.2
          5 October 2020 at 9:27 pm

          Christchurch was considered a low earthquake risk …until 2010

          • Muttonbird 1.1.1.2.1
            5 October 2020 at 10:04 pm

            This area is know for high winds and dry conditions. It's never been built on before.

            • Pat 1.1.1.2.1.1
              5 October 2020 at 10:15 pm

              ???

              • Muttonbird …
                5 October 2020 at 10:26 pm

                The Mackenzie Basin.

                • Pat …
                  5 October 2020 at 10:32 pm

                  plenty of building there…Twizel, Tekapo etc…even Ohau has had a Lodge since the early fifties

                  • Muttonbird …
                    5 October 2020 at 10:38 pm

                    Yes, I've been to Ohau lodge. Very nice and it too might be at risk but from memory it is hard up against the ranges. The affected settlement seemed to be out on the flat with dry pines and grasses in and around it.

                    Someone didn't do their risk assessments properly. Insurance companies must be fuming.

                    • Pat …
                      5 October 2020 at 10:45 pm

                      Let them fume…theyre quick enough to take the premiums…and from reports not all were insured.

                    • Muttonbird …
                      5 October 2020 at 10:52 pm

                      If some weren't insured, that is sad for them. I wonder if the Waitaki District Council and Fed Farmers will step up.

        • arkie 1.1.1.3
          5 October 2020 at 9:32 pm

          There was a significant quake in 1869

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1869_Christchurch_earthquake

          also

          While both the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes occurred on "blind" or unknown faults, New Zealand's Earthquake Commission had, in a 1991 report, predicted moderate earthquakes in Canterbury with the likelihood of associated liquefaction.

          https://web.archive.org/web/20101225184414/http://eqc.govt.nz/home/research/researchpapers/p_105.aspx

        • Molly 1.1.1.4
          5 October 2020 at 9:36 pm

          Joel Cayford did a series of posts on Christchurch seismic activity back in 2011.

          A good post to start is Faulty Thinking about Christchurch.

          A month later he followed it up with Councils Fudge Christchurch Seismicity, which goes over the records and risk estimates.

    • greywarshark 1.2
      5 October 2020 at 7:26 pm

      They had a huge flood in Brisbane I think, on a flood plain, known, and still built there. The temptation is too great, wow a spare bit of land I can build something there and make a quid or whatever.

      Food 2011 was last big apparently. https://actioninspections.com.au/im-buying-a-home-in-the-flood-zone-in-brisbane/

      Some tips: We might have to build on this sort of land in say Christchurch Dunedin at some time. https://www.empiredesigns.com.au/tips-for-building-or-rebuilding-in-flood-zones

      • Ad 1.2.1
        5 October 2020 at 9:29 pm

        People in the Brisbane valley flood plain also successfully lobbied against a large set of protective stopbanks just five years ago, after intensive consultation and engagement.

        The most effective guide is insurance premiums responding to risk, but even then people just hold out, get devastated, and cry foul to GoFundMe or whatever.

    • weka 1.3
      5 October 2020 at 7:43 pm

      Are they? I thought they were talking about recent years with the DoC issues. There are communities all over NZ built in what are now higher fire risk areas, but they weren't so high when first built. Central Otago, North Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Nelson. Basically half the South Island has areas of increased risk now.

      The landscape has changed and climate change is pushing the boundaries. It's a potent mix of nature and human's ignoring the problem. People are still building in daft places. NZ doesn't have a bushfire mentality, yet. But we will.

      • Muttonbird 1.3.1
        5 October 2020 at 9:17 pm

        Fed Farmers are trying to blame it on DoC. I just feel that if developers are going to build it is up to them and the local council to have a plan to make the development safe. The district mayor is also laying the blame at the feet of DoC. Well sorry mate, it's your council.

        • weka 1.3.1.1
          5 October 2020 at 10:04 pm

          would have to look at when tenure review happened on those stations relative to when the houses were built. Are they new houses?

    • bwaghorn 1.4
      5 October 2020 at 9:17 pm

      We still build in Wellington, so what's your point.

      • Muttonbird 1.4.1
        5 October 2020 at 9:20 pm

        Indeed we still build in Wellington. The risk is high.

        My point is those that build in places like Ohau are responsible for minimising risk.

  2. millsy 2
    5 October 2020 at 6:21 pm

    No poll tonight?

  3. Anker 3
    5 October 2020 at 6:23 pm
    • Heard a rumour that early voting is heavier than expected. Would think that is good news for labour, although just a guess
  4. ScottGN 4
    5 October 2020 at 6:49 pm

    Early voting numbers are really high. So far about 165,000 people have already voted in the 2 days booths have been open.

    • lprent 4.1
      5 October 2020 at 7:10 pm

      Oh yeah – look at that rise… That really has gone mainstream behaviour now.
      https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/2020-general-election-advance-voting-statistics/

      I suspect that as well as the obvious advantages of voting without those other disease laden wretches, that there is a strong element of 'I already know who I'm voting for' that wasn't present in the last two elections.

      I suspect that isn't going to be good for the right. It means that each day that these kinds of rates persist, the smaller the group that is available to convince otherwise shrinks.

      • Andre 4.1.1
        5 October 2020 at 7:16 pm

        It's also the first time early voting has opened with two full weekend days for voting. So it might have been a bit easier for wannabe early voters to actually do it this year.

        • Pat 4.1.1.1
          5 October 2020 at 9:18 pm

          Talking to a returning officer and it sounds like things were just as busy today….they astounded at how many have been through.

  5. ScottGN 5
    5 October 2020 at 6:57 pm

    Tomorrow night for the Colmar-Brunton. Not sure when we’ll see another Reid Research, or a Roy Morgan for that matter.

    • millsy 5.1
      5 October 2020 at 8:11 pm

      Fingers and toes crossed the news is good.

      The wheels can still fall off. The next 2 weeks is crucial. Jacinda cannot fuck this one up.

  6. Anker 6
    5 October 2020 at 7:06 pm
    • Yes after commenting on daily review I read about the high numbers on open mike
  7. ScottGN 7
    5 October 2020 at 7:15 pm

    If early voting keeps trending the way it has this opening weekend then I reckon National has got another 2 or 3 days max to pull off the game-changer they need if they’re going to come back from the dead. They are really running out of road now.

    Labour and the Greens have so far run an extraordinarily disciplined campaign. Apart from the odd candidate getting on the wrong side of fact-checking there has literally been nothing to upset the apple cart.

    • Andre 8.1
      5 October 2020 at 7:32 pm

      Nah. The behaviour exposed by that e-mail is totally on-brand for Judthulhu. Any votes that might be changed by shit like that have already been changed. In both directions.

      • Muttonbird 8.1.1
        5 October 2020 at 9:24 pm

        It's the continued leaking which is the problem. The Nats didn't like her before and nothing has changed.

    • Ad 8.2
      5 October 2020 at 9:54 pm

      Denise Lee just drew a political target on her forehead and told Judith to aim straight.

      Auckland Council has very few friends left and Auckland Transport has even fewer.

      • Draco T Bastard 8.2.1
        5 October 2020 at 10:05 pm

        I suspect that the only reason why Collins went for AT is because they're actually doing a good job in getting public transport working and building cycleways.

        • Ad 8.2.1.1
          5 October 2020 at 10:19 pm

          Taken a train recently?

          How many kms of cycleway in a decade on AT network?

          • Muttonbird 8.2.1.1.1
            5 October 2020 at 11:02 pm

            Yeah. New carriages. Electrification. Loads of young people and students use them. Journeys are way up. And they are fixing the lines as we speak.

            Cycle ridership has tripled on the NW cycleway between 2012 and 2018 due to major upgrades between Lincoln Rd and the CBD including Lightpath, the Grafton Gulley cycleway, and the Waterview path.

          • Draco T Bastard 8.2.1.1.2
            5 October 2020 at 11:56 pm

            Yes. Gets better nearly every time.

    • Draco T Bastard 8.3
      5 October 2020 at 10:00 pm

      Well, that's one way to ensure even more Aucklanders don't vote for National. We remember, quite clearly, how they fucked Auckland last time they pulled this shit.

    • georgecom 8.4
      5 October 2020 at 10:45 pm

      Collins comment at the end speaking about housing, "We cannot afford to go another three years waiting for something to happen". Yeah indeed, it was 9 years last time she was in power waiting for something to happen

  9. ScottGN 9
    5 October 2020 at 7:39 pm

    @Andre 8.1

    It’s not the behaviour that’s the problem here. We all know what National’s like. It’s the fact of the leak itself. Now? At the crucial point in an election campaign? Are they mad? Could be like a dam bursting. Looks like more than a few National MPs are already eyeing up the lifeboats.

    • Graeme 9.1
      5 October 2020 at 8:42 pm

      That photo in the Herald over the weekend with the knives….

      It wouldn't have been published without reason, and probably set up as well.

      Whether the dam bursts after 17 Oct or before…

  10. Reality 10
    5 October 2020 at 7:48 pm

    Interesting Judith Collins' unpopularity within the caucus has been exposed by one of their own MPs. What a laugh. And it is likely Denise Lee is not the only MP upset at Collins' behaviour.

  11. georgecom 11
    5 October 2020 at 7:51 pm

    looks like a $16 billion fiscal hole coming out of Epsom now.

    Not content with Goldsmith miscalculating to the tune of $8 billion

    Seems David Seymour has decided to join the club with his own $8 billion fiscal hole

    As Niles Standish of Crank Yanker fame would say, "Take your $8 billion fiscal hole and DOUBLE it". That might explain the recent crank yanking we are seeing from both Goldsmith and Seymour.

    • Incognito 11.1
      5 October 2020 at 8:28 pm

      When two black holes collide – or is it cannibalise each other? – it sends gravitational shock waves through the whole Universe. Many years from now some distant civilization might detect a short sharp spike and they’ll go “WTF!!” and then trace its origin back to the joining of two giant fiscal holes in the year 2020 AD on a small scorched planet orbiting a dwarf star. I’ll bet they’ll never figure out it the holes were man-made because they’ll have no record of our civilization, of course.

  12. millsy 12
    5 October 2020 at 7:56 pm

    If I was optimistic, I would suggest that Judith knows that this election is lost for her, and with it the centre ground. She also know that her career is probably finished after the election, as well. So, she is just going all out Crusher, one final nothing-to-lose flurry before she bows out and goes back to the law chambers, you can tell she is just enjoying just being herself.

    But, Im not going to get too carried away just yet.

    • Uncle Scrim 12.1
      5 October 2020 at 9:44 pm

      Not quite this I don't think. I suspect she feels if Nats can get 35-37% in defeat it will be enough for her to stay on as leader. And in her mind, get another crack in 2023, maybe in a more suitable electoral climate. The Nats caucus might have other ideas.

  13. greywarshark 13
    5 October 2020 at 7:57 pm

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/427651/legal-battle-forecast-over-drury-plan-changes

    Is this good planning? Will there be some factories there or is it all for the dainty seat-fillers and consumers, shop, shop, shopping.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/424525/drury-development-feedback-sought-on-plans-to-transform-area-south-of-auckland

  14. ScottGN 14
    5 October 2020 at 8:10 pm

    Anybody else think that it’s either a very lucky break or great campaign strategy that saw Labour release its LGBTQI policy today, amongst other things banning conversion therapy, after the country spent the weekend cringing at the sight of the National Party leader humiliating herself trying to curry favour with the conservative religious right.

    • Ad 14.1
      5 October 2020 at 9:49 pm

      Judith Collins proclaimed herself a longstanding Anglican and prayed in an Anglican church.

      The New Zealand Anglican Church is one of the most thoroughly liberal and politically correct institutions in the entire country.

      So, no, she didn't humiliate herself. She supported an exceedingly tolerant and inclusive institution.

      What Labour did was announce a set of things any of which they could have done in the previous term – and didn't even try.

      • Muttonbird 14.1.1
        5 October 2020 at 10:10 pm

        She prayed like a child in a Disney movie for political effect. It was embarrassing. Practicing Anglicans are most likely appalled.

        They’ll probably do what the Catholics do though and accept that any new recruit is not to be turned away.

        • Ad 14.1.1.1
          5 October 2020 at 10:21 pm

          You were embarrassed. She wasn't.

          She didn't invite the media in there, and it would have been worse if she had sought to ban them from the scene. She was invited to pray by the priest of the church.

          She's not a new recruit to the Anglican church.

          • Muttonbird 14.1.1.1.1
            5 October 2020 at 10:35 pm

            I'm surprised you have fallen for Judith's version of events so easily. There are ways a proper practicing Christian could politely ask the media for some level of privacy while she "spoke to god". A proper practicing Christian would be at home asking for such a simple request. She didn't even bother.

          • PaddyOT 14.1.1.1.2
            5 October 2020 at 11:53 pm

            The very core of being Anglican is the central act of the community coming together at Mass to celebrate the Eucharist. It is that continued 'act of faith' that makes one a practising Anglican, not a baptisimal certificate.
            Judith missed the St. Thomas service by two hours. Following the liturgy is morning tea so Judith also missed a mix and mingle with that parish community.

            There is no special loss or gain of the power of a prayer by kneeling, posing hands or praying elsewhere.
            She could have prayed at a local park, in a haybarn or in her car. She was very aware of the cameras as she played to them blatantly when posing in different directions while voting.

            There was no need for such a 'charlatan' type display in church other than political posturing . Pretty sure on the campaign trail followed relentlessly by media in all these weeks it would have been news if she just popped into a church to pray around the country.???

            That Judith just popped over to another electorate missing many, many polling booths to be at the one with an Anglican church was a staged theatrical stunt. She was voting in another electorate and had to use the special vote box as per rules.

            • lurgee 14.1.1.1.2.1
              6 October 2020 at 10:25 am

              Public acts of praying are explicitly condemned as unnecessary and possibly hypocritical by the Big Man himself. From the Sermon on the Mount:

              5 And when thou prayest, be not as the hypocrites: for they love to stand and pray in the Synagogues, and in the corners of the streets, because they would be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, they have their reward.

              6 But when thou prayest, enter into thy chamber: and when thou hast shut thy door, pray unto thy Father which is in secret, and thy Father which seeth in secret, shall reward thee openly.

              7 Also when ye pray, use no vain repetitions as the Heathen: for they think to be heard for their much babbling.

              8 Be ye not like them therefore: for your Father knoweth whereof ye have need, before ye ask of him.

              (Geneva translation, for Bible spods.)

          • observer 14.1.1.1.3
            6 October 2020 at 12:02 am

            Collins certainly did invite the media there.

            A leader casting a vote is always an election photo-op. That's why the cameras were there (as they are for all major leaders). She chose to cast her vote at a church, knowing that the cameras would be there. She chose to go into a church to "pray" (pose), again in full knowledge and expectation.

            “Collins didn’t seek privacy as she led the media pack into the building and a media handler checked with church staff that it was okay for cameras to enter.”

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122976973/election-2020-judith-collins-keeps-the-faith-with-two-weeks-to-go-as-she-votes-and-prays

            Only the staggeringly naive would think this was some accident.

          • Draco T Bastard 14.1.1.1.4
            6 October 2020 at 1:13 am

            She wasn't.

            Of course she wasn't. Psychopaths don't feel embarrassment.

  15. ScottGN 15
    5 October 2020 at 9:09 pm

    The Greens in Canada have elected a new leader to replace long-serving, outgoing leader Elizabeth May. Paul will be standing in the by-election scheduled for the downtown Toronto riding just vacated by outgoing Liberal Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/annamie-paul-says-greens-needed-for-this-moment-1.5750187

  16. ScottGN 16
    5 October 2020 at 10:07 pm

    @Ad 8.2

    Apparently it wasn’t Denise Lee who leaked her email to Jenna Lynch. Auckland Council and AT and their relative friendless-ness are incidental to the shit that’s about to hit the fan in the National Party.

  17. ScottGN 17
    5 October 2020 at 10:12 pm

    @Ad 14.1

    Judith Collins drove herself across the isthmus to a church outside of her electorate where she had to cast a special vote in order to get a photo op. All just to try and mop up a few supporters who are straying to the loony Christian fringe parties that have cropped up on her right flank.

    • Uncle Scrim 17.1
      5 October 2020 at 10:29 pm

      I’m not sure that this is quite correct. Stuff reported her saying she’d voted for Simon O’Connor – ie she must be enrolled in Tamaki, not Papakura. Which is odd, but allowed. But then she was photographed posting a ballot into a special votes box, so that’s confusing.

  18. ScottGN 18
    5 October 2020 at 10:23 pm

    Looks like the National Party hit job on Jake Bezzant is winding back up again.

  19. ScottGN 19
    5 October 2020 at 10:30 pm

    @Ad 14.1.1.1

    The whole bloody country was embarrassed for her. It was a set up for crying out loud. Maybe it will achieve what the National Party wants it to achieve. Who knows? But one thing’s for sure it’s just another sign that National has had to abandon the centre in a mad scramble to shore up its rapidly disintegrating right flank.

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