Daily review 10/08/2022

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, August 10th, 2022 - 25 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

25 comments on “Daily review 10/08/2022 ”

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  1. Poission 1
    10 August 2022 at 6:23 pm

    Uk faces higher food cost due to increasing energy shortage (and subsequent higher pricing). Going into winter modelling shows periods of blackouts for both industry and households and food shortages due to storage and production constraints.

    https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1557012884353617920

    La Nina models show a higher probability for colder European Winters.

    • weka 1.1
      10 August 2022 at 7:30 pm

      how much less food is there in reality? We waste a massive amount of food globally every year. Food shortages are ideologically enforced economic issues.

      • Poission 1.1.1
        10 August 2022 at 7:46 pm

        The food needs to be distributed,processed in some cases and have energy available for cooking.The supply chain will collapse as payment systems fail,ordering unavailable,the effects more in large cities with high rise housing.

      • Poission 1.2.1
        10 August 2022 at 7:49 pm

        US cpi out tonight,a decrease in headline inflation ( fuel and food) possible core inflation maybe higher,a bad number may see an unscheduled FED meeting.

        • pat 1.2.1.1
          10 August 2022 at 7:58 pm

          Unscheduled Fed meeting, assume you mean with unscheduled public announcement…has that happened before?

          Scratch that…I see it has been

          https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/04/unexpected-changes-to-the-benchmark-u-s-interest-rate/

          • Poission 1.2.1.1.1
            10 August 2022 at 8:11 pm

            They (individual bankers of fed) are working the market reminding that they have moved from forward guidance to data driven responses.The next meeting is sept,and appreciation of meme stocks,along with poor productivity figures have seen analysis ( citibank) suggesting either an earlier meeting,or a 100 point wack in september,Unscheduled movements have been usually to lower rates due to shocks such as 9/11 etc.

            The core inflation pressures suggest too much liquidity,and too much money coming into short end (2 yr) long end is lower and not locking equity into long term debt.

            • pat 1.2.1.1.1.1
              10 August 2022 at 8:17 pm

              Yes but if they cut the incentive for retail investors is back into equities not bonds or deposits which wont cut demand as the FED wants …the inflation pressure returns as the supply side isnt close to being repaired (and likely never will be)…and if the inversion is correct (as it always has been) then the die is cast in any case.

              • Poission …
                10 August 2022 at 8:33 pm

                The problem with equities is a substantive are growth (not value) and are trading on a possibility they may move to profit before they run out of cash.

                The value stocks that have been under priced such as energy, shipping etc have seen substantive profits and dividend payments.The problem is say tech stocks trading at higher rates then profitable companies.

                Here our inflation problem is not so much energy driven,but in the high cost of capital improvement such as housing ,infrastructure etc,and high core inflation.

                • pat …
                  10 August 2022 at 8:37 pm

                  "Here our inflation problem is not so much energy driven,but in the high cost of capital improvement such as housing ,infrastructure etc,and high core inflation"

                  .Driven by reducing productivity…and if our dollar tanks we will add imported inflation (alongside energy)

                  • Poission …
                    10 August 2022 at 8:57 pm

                    We have low productivity due to a change in the economy to a service economy (which mostly does not get overseas funds,and usually transfers funds o/s)

                    Liquid fuels are an energy risk (with inflation) Electricity at present is overiched in liquid assets.

                    National hydro storage continued to increase this week with another big increase of 13% to 127% of the historical average for this time of year. This keeps it above the 90th percentile. South Island hydro storage increased to 125% of the historical average following high inflows, while North Island storage decreased to 147% of the historical average for this time of year.
                    Lake Manapōuri and Lake Te Anau are both now spilling as they sit comfortably above their main operating ranges because of recent large inflows.

                    With subsequent pricing response.

                    Average prices decreased by over 65% from the week prior. Average prices at all four island reference nodes were between $14/MWh and $16/MWh. Prices were low for most of the week, sitting below 3 cents/MWh outside of the price peaks. This is the result of plentiful hydro and wind generation.

                    https://www.transpower.co.nz/sites/default/files/bulk-upload/documents/MO%20Latest%20Daily%20Update.pdf

                    Going forward with electricity there are some alarm bells in the large wind projects with both increased demand and high input costs which will be much higher then the project scopes.

  2. Rosemary McDonald 2
    10 August 2022 at 6:31 pm

    What a shame.

    Grant Robertson states he will not support Chloe Swarbrick's bill that would see a much welcome end to alcohol sponsorship in sports.

    Despite the bill finally addressing some of the recommendations from previous advisory groups and …

    "We even have two reports that the government commissioned in the last term of Parliament which said get on with these recommendations from 2014 and from 2010 and 2011, which have subsequently been ignored by the bogey man of the alcohol industry."

    The proposed bill had received the most widespread support out of any members bills ever that had yet to reach its first reading, she said.

    "We've got councils from across the country who have endorsed it, we've also got Hāpai Te Hauora, the Health Coalition Aotearoa, St Johns, the Salvation Army, the Mental Health Foundation, we've got Women's Refuge, Plunket, Alzheimers New Zealand, the Child Poverty Action Group."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/472602/swarbrick-frustrated-by-deputy-pm-not-backing-alcohol-harm-minimisation-bill

    Robertson claims that this 'critical' source of funding for sports simply can't be pulled without being replaced…and the Government coffers are low.

    Swarbrick believes that estimates for the amount of funding are lower than suggested…and the cost of government support to replace alcohol sponsorship would be somewhat offset by a reduction in harms.

    "To put this in context of government spending in the tune of billions and billions of dollars for a substance that being alcohol is a drug which contributes, based on law commission reports estimation between $735 million to $16.1 billion of social harm per annum.

    "This is a drop in the bucket," Swarbrick said.

    There were two main ways in which the loss of advertising funding could be counteracted, she said.

    The first could see a mechanism similar to the Smokefree Aotearoa campaign but instead focused around alcohol, which would see the government fronting up the cash to plug the gap of the loss of advertising revenue in the sports sector.

    The second would see an existing levy placed on all alcohol sales around the country, taxing a matter of cents on the sale of each sale of alcohol.

    Wouldn't it be nice if this can get over the line? What are the chances? (Another 'don't hold your breath' scenario, but dreams are free.)

    More power to Chloe's elbow.

    • Ad 2.1
      10 August 2022 at 8:13 pm

      Robertson doesn't have a leg to stand on.

      Robertson has plenty of money.

      The precedent for replacing funding was of course the SmokeFree Advertising legislation and funding (Benson and Hedges Fashion Awards anyone?).

      It's not like they've got any political capital left to spend and they'll be out on their ass next term, so show some gumption Grant.

      Would be a great moment for the new Maori health authority to speak up.

      • Poission 2.1.1
        10 August 2022 at 8:19 pm

        Na she is still sulking after the failure to get SOMA legalised at the referendum.

      • Populuxe1 2.1.2
        11 August 2022 at 11:37 am

        Much as I am not a fan of smoking or alcohol advertising, I think the Fashion Awards lasted one, maybe two years funded by SmokeFree and then ceased altogether. It was a similar situation with the Moët & Chandon NZ artist fellowship and residency in France. There are a lot of things that should exist as public good that the public and the majority of companies don't see any value in paying for and we are culturally all the poorer for it.

    • Stan 2.2
      10 August 2022 at 10:53 pm

      Rosemary we have disagreed on vaccinations, but I'm 100% with you on this. Piss-weak of Robertson here. He and Ardern are captured by the nasty alcohol and tobacco lobbyists. You'd think they were there to govern for us (the people) but they are beholden to evil money.

      More reason to vote green next year.

  3. aj 3
    10 August 2022 at 6:39 pm

    The recently released CBS documentary which claimed that only about 30 percent of the weapons delivered reach the front line in Ukraine, has been withdrawn after pressure from the Ukrainian government

    In the documentary, Ohman described the corruption and bureaucracy that he has to work around to deliver aid to Ukraine. “There are like power lords, oligarchs, political players,” he said. “The system itself, it’s like, ‘We are the armed forces of Ukraine. If security forces want it, well, the Americans gave it to us.’ It’s kind of like power games all day long, and so eventually people need the stuff, and they go to us.”

    Other reporting has shown that there is virtually no oversight for the billions of dollars in weapons that the US and its allies are pouring into Ukraine. CNN reported in April that the US has “almost zero” ability to track the weapons it is sending once they enter Ukraine. One source briefed on US intelligence described it as dropping the arms into a “big black hole.”

    https://news.antiwar.com/2022/08/08/cbs-removes-documentary-on-ukraine-military-aid-after-pressure-from-ukrainian-government/

    It can be viewed here, 24 mins.

    https://www.bitchute.com/embed/g5OgTXkzzLy9/

    • joe90 3.1
      10 August 2022 at 7:29 pm

      The recently released CBS documentary which claimed that only about 30 percent of the weapons delivered reach the front line in Ukraine, has been withdrawn after pressure from the Ukrainian government

      The whereabouts of weapons supplied to Ukraine would one of the most closely guarded military secrets in the world.

      Only in tankie land would their location be shared.

      //

  4. Robert Guyton 4
    10 August 2022 at 7:29 pm

    All of this uffindell anguish could have been avoided if Chris Luxon had just stayed at home instead of swanning off to Hawaii.

  6. Ad 6
    10 August 2022 at 8:47 pm

    Uffindell charge 3 tomorrow, as the playbook goes.