Daily review 11/07/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, July 11th, 2023 - 33 comments
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Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

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33 comments on “Daily review 11/07/2023 ”

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  1. Kat 1
    11 July 2023 at 5:47 pm

    Same old polling ups and down…….anyone remember how the parties were doing this time out in 2020……..

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-and-chris-hipkins-crash-in-latest-poll-gap-with-national-widest-since-2017/R6MWQK2TQBGK5FY3ZKOEYGVYPU/

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    11 July 2023 at 6:14 pm

    One doesn't often get a multi headed angel of death featuring in our media. I expected a lurid image of same but we got Barbie instead.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/07/11/new-talbot-mills-poll-labour-crash-and-far-right-government-rises-like-a-multi-headed-angel-of-death/

    I have to say that this new Barbie does appear to be somewhat underwhelming. There is even a real possibility that wee girls may be traumatised by it. Bit of a worry…

    • Kat 2.1
      11 July 2023 at 6:21 pm

      Looks similar, but dressed up and a lot larger, to what was thrown at Steven Joyce up at Waitangi………

    • pat 2.2
      11 July 2023 at 6:37 pm

      Hmmm….wonder when the latest Curia poll results will be released.

      • Belladonna 2.2.1
        11 July 2023 at 8:04 pm

        Curia typically polls the first week of each month – so should be out very soon.

        • pat 2.2.1.1
          11 July 2023 at 8:06 pm

          They polled last week.

          • Belladonna 2.2.1.1.1
            11 July 2023 at 8:16 pm

            Looking at the June dates – they finished polling on the Tuesday – and released the results on the Saturday. So about 4 days later.

            It that pattern holds true – you should expect to see the results at the end of this week.

            Is there some reason you are concerned? Curia polling typically has Labour a little below the Talbot Mills results – though they often rate the Greens higher than TM.

            you can see the patterns here

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election

            • pat 2.2.1.1.1.1
              11 July 2023 at 8:35 pm

              not concerned…curious. With the other polls released this week and the fact i was polled by Curia raises the interest to see how they compare

  3. Ad 3
    11 July 2023 at 7:00 pm

    On the polling today of Labour at 31% and Greens at 8% + 1 seat, this is how the calculator distributes Parliamentary seats:

    Act 19 MPs

    National 46 MPs

    Maori 5 MPs (assuming 4% and 3 electoral seats)

    Labour 40 MPs

    Greens 10 MPs (assuming 1 electoral seat)

    So the Labour MPs who would be at risk would be:

    • Te Atatu's Phil Twyford
    • Hamilton East's Jamie Strange
    • Maungakiekie's Priyanca Radakrishnan
    • Napier (whoever they put in there)
    • New Plymouth's Glen Bennet
    • Northland's Willow-Jean Prime
    • Rangitata's Jo Luxton
    • Upper Harbour's Vanushi Walters
    • Whangarei's Emily Henderson

    With a stab at the list rankings, you would probably only keep from the current List:

    • Grant Robertson
    • Willie Jackson
    • Ayesha Verrall
    • Andrew Little
    • David Parker, and
    • Nanaia Mahuta

    The entire rest of Labour caucus becomes political mince.

    Now sure, it ain't 2014 yet, but we're getting there.

    Maybe it's time Chippie showed he had a plan and stopped fucking around with international plane travel, sausage rolls and 'boy from Hutt' bullshit.

    Lots of Labour are about to lose their $170k jobs.

    https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator/#!|percentage|ACT%20New%20Zealand,15,|Aotearoa%20Legalise%20Cannabis%20Party,,|DemocracyNZ,,|Freedoms%20New%20Zealand,,|Heartland%20New%20Zealand%20Party,,|M%C4%81ori%20Party,4,3|New%20Conservative,,|New%20Nation%20Party,,|New%20Zealand%20First%20Party,4,|New%20Zealand%20Labour%20Party,31,|NZ%20Outdoors%20&%20Freedom%20Party,,|ONE%20Party,,|The%20Greens%60%20The%20Green%20Party%20of%20Aotearoa/New%20Zealand,8,1|The%20New%20Zealand%20National%20Party,36,|The%20Opportunities%20Party%20(TOP),,|Vision%20New%20Zealand,,|Other%20party%201,,

    In case not obvious it would take a Maori or Green miracle to stop Act gaining about 6 Cabinet seats at this point.

    • SPC 3.1
      11 July 2023 at 7:13 pm

      The only person capable of stopping ACT having places in cabinet (on this poll) leads NZF. Being required for a majority and providing confidence and supply to a National minority (rather than a NACT coalition) government.

      • Ad 3.1.1
        11 July 2023 at 7:18 pm

        Yes it's about to get tactical.

      • Bearded Git 3.1.2
        12 July 2023 at 7:02 am

        No SPC, that doesn't really work. NZF and the Nats would still need ACT to govern. The Nats will not want ACT as loose cannons on the cross-benches, and anyway Seymour will want the baubles.

        But what worries me about this poll (and remembering it was taken during the cabinet ministers shit-show and that Labour will out perform the Nats in the campaign) is that if NZF go up one point to 5% and Labour drops a point to 30, the Coalition of Cuts (Nats/ACT/NZF) will have 53% and the goodies will have 42% (Lab/Gr/TPM).

        That will be a serious wipe out. But I think the polls will improve as the cabinet stabilises and the economy improves and as Hipkins out-debates Luxon..

        • SPC 3.1.2.1
          12 July 2023 at 11:24 am

          National were a minority government 2008-2017. No coalition (United/ACT/MP were all support partners).

          I doubt NZP would give c and s to a NACT government.

          As per the polls 48% is enough to form a government after the loss of wasted votes (which would could be as high as 10% this year – 4% NZF, 3% TOP etc).

          Only a switch of National voters to NZF would stop undue influence of ACT on the next National government.

          The same tactical voting by National voters prevented a Labour-Green coalition in 2020.

    • Kat 3.2
      11 July 2023 at 7:17 pm

      Emily Henderson has already chucked it in, after one term. Angie Warren-Clark current sitting list MP from Tauranga is her replacement. Writing on the wall is obvious. If Dr Shane Reti fails to win the seat back for National then it will herald another landslide for Labour.

      • Ad 3.2.1
        11 July 2023 at 7:19 pm

        Landslide in what sense?

        • alwyn 3.2.1.1
          11 July 2023 at 7:26 pm

          State Highway 25?

        • Kat 3.2.1.2
          11 July 2023 at 7:41 pm

          Apart from the aberration of the 2020 result, and on current polling if Labour were to again win the seat of Whangarei the half century blue seat of National, then expect a similar election result to 2020.

          It won't happen in my opinion……the sands in the electoral hourglass are dropping rapidly for Labour……or if you prefer, the tide has turned and the winds are on the nose. Labour may 'just' squeak back in on the day country wide if we are lucky…….I wouldn't put the house on that result though, NZ has always been a politically divided country and becoming even more fractured.

          • Ad 3.2.1.2.1
            11 July 2023 at 8:28 pm

            Labour won Whangarei in 2020 by about 430 votes. That was a tsunami-scale high water mark.

            Labour will not win Whangarei in 2023. It's not even a bellweather seat.

            • Kat 3.2.1.2.1.1
              11 July 2023 at 8:39 pm

              If Labour were to win it then it would be another "tsunami-scale high water mark"….that was my point. So in one respect Whangarei could be a bell weather seat albeit a tsunami one.

    • Corey 3.3
      11 July 2023 at 7:52 pm

      Absolutely.

      Even in his foreign policy speech he has to mention "boy from the Hutt"

      Bro shut up, stop trying to be relatable with the working folk, it’s not a costume you can put on, you're a multimillionaire with the charisma of Phil Goff, just give us some damn policies ffs.

      All we've heard so far is what Labour won't do… Not what they will do.

    • weka 3.4
      11 July 2023 at 8:44 pm

      In case not obvious it would take a Maori or Green miracle to stop Act gaining about 6 Cabinet seats at this point.

      Polling trend says otherwise.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_election_(blocs).svg

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election

      We've seen other elections at this point in the campaign where people were sure the left wouldn't win and they turned out to be wrong. Not saying your analysis of what Labour needs to do is wrong, just that messaging of 'we're going to lose' is self defeating.

    • alwyn 3.5
      11 July 2023 at 9:02 pm

      Do you really think that Phil Twyford can lose the entire 10,500 majority he had in 2020? Jeez Wayne.

      • Ad 3.5.1
        11 July 2023 at 9:13 pm

        In 2017 there was 3,000 votes in it, so yes on this tracking Twyford is in trouble.

  4. Kat 4
    11 July 2023 at 8:51 pm

    Its not so much "we are going to lose" rather we are going to take a hit…..but hopefully the electoral gods are wearing red and we get over the line….even just….over the line.

  5. SPC 5
    11 July 2023 at 8:56 pm

    TVNZ reports that there is to be a new Maori name for Otago University

    Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka – a metaphor that means "A Place of Many Firsts".

    Apparently it also means a place where many go because they are thirsty.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/11/otago-university-adopts-new-logo-and-maori-name/

  6. Incognito 6
    11 July 2023 at 9:29 pm

    This is an excellent short video (about 2 minutes) from Pew Research Center on how they conduct their surveys.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/05/12/methods-101-random-sampling/

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