Daily review 11/07/2023
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5:30 pm, July 11th, 2023 - 33 comments
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- 2025 Reading List: April (+ Writing Update)
Completed reads for April: The Gospel of Thomas, by Didymus Jude Thomas The Gospel of Mary (fragmentary) The Gospel of Judas The Infancy Gospel of James The Gospel of Peter The Stranger’s Book (fragmentary) Obviously a very quiet month in terms of reading. In fairness, real life and ...5 hours ago - Make China great again!
This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler As readers of this Substack will know, I've been increasingly concerned about the destruction of one of America’s greatest competitive advantages: our university research system. Recently, the Trump administration announced that they were going to cut university overhead rates to ...10 hours ago - No Russia in Papua: Indonesia’s quiet diplomacy speaks loudly
Indonesia’s low-key rejection of reported Russian interest in military basing in Papua says more than it appears to. While Jakarta’s response was measured, it was deliberate—a calculated expression of Indonesia’s foreign policy doctrine of non-alignment, ...11 hours ago - Australia (still) needs a dedicated and public-facing national security adviser
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI released Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report developed for the next government and to promote public debate and understanding ...13 hours ago
- Vietnamese reunification 50 years later: ‘let bygones be bygones’
On 27 January 1973, the conflict in Vietnam was brought to an end with the formal signing in Paris of the Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring the Peace in Vietnam by four parties: ...16 hours ago
- A “secret” that wasn’t
Back in 2018, Aotearoa was in the midst of the Operation Burnham inquiry. During this, it emerged that key evidence was subject to a US veto under an obscure and secret treaty. Part of the Five Eyes arrangement, this treaty was referred to by a number of different names in ...16 hours ago - Nicola Willis’ Austerity Threatens New Zealand’s Future
I hate to sound the alarm, but New Zealand’s economy is teetering on the edge, and Finance Minister Nicola Willis is wielding her austerity axe with a reckless abandon that could plunge us into a prolonged recession. The 2025 Budget, with its brutal $1.1 billion reduction in baseline spending, is ...17 hours ago - Nicola Willis’ Austerity Threatens New Zealand’s Future
I hate to sound the alarm, but New Zealand’s economy is teetering on the edge, and Finance Minister Nicola Willis is wielding her austerity axe with a reckless abandon that could plunge us into a prolonged recession. The 2025 Budget, with its brutal $1.1 billion reduction in baseline spending, is ...17 hours ago
- Punish That Criminal !
Crime Pays for the PoliticiansThis morning, Paul Goldsmith, the Minister who wants Te Reo Maori scrubbed, announced that prisoners who are serving terms of less than 3 years be barred from voting. From left, Police Minister Mark Mitchell, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith & Mental Health Minister Matt DooceyNZ’s Electoral Review ...17 hours ago - Four Walls
Well, I can't see and I can't hearThey've burnt out all the feelingsAnd I never been so crazy, and it's just my second yearFour walls, wash basinFour walls, wash basinFour walls, wash basin, prison bedSongwriter: Don Walker.The coalition parties are mulling the austerity budget they will soon put to the ...17 hours ago - The Left Must Rally Behind Andrew Little
First, hats off to Tory Whanau. Her decision to bow out and run for the Māori ward instead, putting the city’s future above her personal ambition, is commendable. Facing a torrent of personal abuse and a council mired in chaos, she still delivered on water investment, cycleways, and housing reforms. ...18 hours ago
- Progressive Resurgence
Trump Kills A Sure-Thing In Canada, the Conservatives fell from a 21 point lead a few months ago to a decisive loss yesterday. The Canadian Liberals are ~ 2 to 3 seats short of a majority, which means PM Mark Carney but will still need to work through opposition parties ...18 hours ago - Defence and Trump shape Australia’s election
Australia’s cost-of-living election has a khaki tinge and an uneasy international tone. You know defence is having an impact when a political party promises to raise taxes to buy more military kit, and makes defence ...18 hours ago
- Waitākere Ranges Ruckus: Unpacking the Anti-Māori Hysteria
The Waitākere Ranges, a stunning natural taonga west of Auckland, are at the heart of a brewing controversy that’s exposing the ugly underbelly of New Zealand’s political discourse. A proposed deed of acknowledgement, grounded in the Waitākere Ranges Heritage Area Act 2008, aims to establish a joint decision-making committee with ...19 hours ago
- National says “fuck the BORA”
That's the only way to describe their plans to reinstate the prisoner voting ban. In case anyone has forgotten, this is a law that was explicitly found to be inconsistent with the BORA by the Supreme Court, in Aotearoa's first ever declaration of inconsistency. The solution that was eventually hashed ...19 hours ago
- Interview: Shamubeel Eaqub on an even tighter Budget for 2025/26
I spoke last night with Simplicity Chief Economist and Head of Policy about the Government's latest budget policy tightening, the risks for infrastructure investment and a potential dampening of GDP growth.He points out that the Government has cut capital expenditure so far in the current financial year, rather than ...20 hours ago - Ukraine’s air force has survived. Taiwan’s almost certainly couldn’t
The Ukrainian air force went to war against invading Russian forces in February 2022 with just 125 combat aircraft concentrated at around a dozen large bases. Given Russia’s overwhelming deep-strike advantage—hundreds of deployed warplanes and ...21 hours ago
- Bernard’s Picks ‘n’ Mixes on Wednesday, April 30
Briefly this morning: Nicola Willis rules out charities tax or any tax hike to reduce budget deficit. She’s focused instead on spending cuts. There are 1,000 at-risk kids without a social worker, NZ Herald reports.Housing shortages are a factor in high-risk sex offenders being put out early into uncontrolled community ...21 hours ago - Gordon Campbell On Our Austerity Fixation And Canada Staying Centre-left
Truly, these are tough times for our nation’s leaders. In future, how on earth are they going to find the sort of money they’ve been happy to throw at landlords, tobacco companies, and wealthier New Zealanders ever since they got elected? On Defence, how are they going to find those ...1 day ago - Bad advice on public sector discount rates
A couple of months ago now I wrote a post about the new set of discount rates government agencies are supposed to use in undertaking cost-benefit analysis, whether for new spending projects or for regulatory initiatives. The new, radically altered, framework had come into effect from 1 October last year, ...1 day ago - Indonesia is hooked on Huawei
Huawei dominates Indonesia’s telecommunication network infrastructure. It won over Indonesia mainly through cost competitiveness and by generating favour through capacity-building programs and strategic relationships with the government, and telecommunication operators. But Huawei’s dominance poses risks. ...1 day ago
- Bookshelf: The myth of American liberalism
Democracy and the liberal tradition have long been seen as among the most basic tenets of the American way of life. They are also the main reason the West has for the past 80 years ...2 days ago
- Cutting even deeper against the grain
Nicola Willis continues to compare the economy to a household needing to tighten its belt to survive. Photo: Getty Images The key long stories short in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, April 29 are: Nicola Willis today announced a cut in the Government’s new spending ...2 days ago - Gas is dead
The Herald had another announcement today about a new solar farm being officially opened - this time the 63MW Lauriston solar farm in Canterbury. It is of course briefly "NZ’s biggest solar farm", but it will soon be overtaken by Kōwhai park at Christchurch airport (168MW) and Tauhei (202MW), both ...2 days ago
- Shoving the future aside
I woke this morning to the shock news that Tory Whanau was no longer contesting the Wellington mayoralty, having stepped aside to leave the field clear for Andrew Little. Its like a perverse reversal of Little's 2017 decision to step aside for Jacinda - the stale, pale past rudely shoving ...2 days ago
- A pre-Budget speech
In a pre-Budget speech this morning the Minister of Finance announced that this year’s operating allowance – the net amount available for new initiatives – was being reduced from $2.4 billion to $1.3 billion (speech here, RNZ story here). Operating allowance numbers in isolation don’t mean a great deal (what ...2 days ago
- Weak tax revenue is a national security issue
Of the two things in life that are certain, defence and national security concern themselves with death but need to pay more attention to taxes. Australia’s national security, defence and domestic policy obligations all need ...2 days ago
- Chris Penk’s Leaky Homes 2.0
The Coalition of Chaos is at it again with another half-baked underwhelming scheme that smells suspiciously like a rerun of New Zealand’s infamous leaky homes disaster. Their latest brainwave? Letting tradies self-certify their own work on so-called low-risk residential builds. Sounds like a great way to cut red tape to ...2 days ago
- Assumed Competence
Perfect by natureIcons of self indulgenceJust what we all needMore lies about a world thatNever was and never will beHave you no shame don't you see meYou know you've got everybody fooledSongwriters: Amy Lee / Ben Moody / David Hodges.“Vote National”, they said. The economic managers par excellence who will ...2 days ago - The ADF isn’t nearly fast enough. It must rush into the cheap-drone revolution
The Australian Defence Force isn’t doing enough to adopt cheap drones. It needs to be training with these tools today, at every echelon, which it cannot do if it continues to drag its feet. Cheap drones ...2 days ago
- “You and me need to hang out. As in, just us 2!”
Hi,Just over a year ago — in March of 2024 — I got an email from Jake. He had a story he wanted to tell, and he wanted to find a way to tell it that could help others. A warning, of sorts. And so over the last year, as ...2 days ago
- National Has Mismanaged The Economy
Back in the dark days of the pandemic, when the world was locked down and businesses were gasping for air, Labour’s quick thinking and economic management kept New Zealand afloat. Under Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson, the Wage Subsidy Scheme saved 1.7 million jobs, pumping billions into businesses to stop ...2 days ago
- Bernard’s Picks ‘n’ Mixes at 6am on Tuesday, April 29
The Big Six at 6am on Tuesday, April 29Politics news by NZ Herald: Tory Whanau exits Wellington mayoral race, reveals why she's not running again & RNZ: Tory Whanau quits Wellington mayoral raceHealth news scoop by Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$: Weekly data reveals scale of Govt’s waiting list crisis.’ ...2 days ago - No going back
When I was fifteen I discovered the joy of a free bar. All you had to do was say Bacardi and Coke, thanks to the guy in the white shirt and bow tie. I watched my cousin, all private school confidence, get the drinks in, and followed his lead. Another, ...2 days ago - Beijing finally slices off Sandy Cay
The Financial Times reported last week that China’s coast guard has declared China’s sovereignty over Sandy Cay, posting pictures of personnel holding a Chinese flag on a strip of sand. The landing apparently took place ...2 days ago
- National’s Stalling New Zealand’s Electric Future
You might not know this, but New Zealand’s at the bottom of the global league table for electric vehicle (EV) chargers, and the National government’s policies are ensuring we stay there, choking the life out of our clean energy transition.According to the International Energy Agency’s 2024 Global EV Outlook, we’ve ...2 days ago
- EGU2025 – Presentation about our collaborations
As mentioned in the recently published prolog to EGU2025 article, I submitted an abstract to talk about some of the collaborations we've had with other groups and websites over the years. This blog post is a "companion article" to that presentation in session EOS1.1 Science and Society: Science Communication Practice, Research, and ...3 days ago
- Rudd and Shearer aren’t enough. Washington needs to see more Australian heavy hitters
We need more than two Australians who are well-known in Washington. We do have two who are remarkably well-known, but they alone aren’t enough in a political scene that’s increasingly influenced by personal connections and ...3 days ago
- “Protecting frontline services”
When National embarked on slash and burn cuts to the public service, Prime Minister Chris Luxon was clear that he expected frontline services to be protected. He lied: The government has scrapped part of a work programme designed to prevent people ending up in emergency housing because the social ...3 days ago
- Climate Change: National supports pollution subsidies
When the Emissions Trading Scheme was originally introduced, way back in 2008, it included a generous transitional subsidy scheme, which saw "trade exposed" polluters given free carbon credits while they supposedly stopped polluting. That scheme was made more generous and effectively permanent under the Key National government, and while Labour ...3 days ago
- Atlas Network Makes Australian Mainstream
Australia Shows The WayAustralian media and their investigative journalists have published two articles on the Atlas Network’s modus operandi in recent weeks:‘Copied the MAGA model’: The ‘grassroots’ lobby group funded by some of Australia’s richestHow Atlas Network amassed a global network of free market think tanks and reached into Australia ...3 days ago - Australia’s defence readiness—a critical assessment
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...3 days ago
- The Suspicious Death of Virginia Giuffre
The news of Virginia Giuffre’s untimely death has been a shock, especially for those still seeking justice for Jeffrey Epstein’s victims. Giuffre, a key figure in exposing Epstein’s depraved network and its ties to powerful figures like Prince Andrew, was reportedly struck by a bus in Australia. She then apparently ...3 days ago
- Bernard’s Dawn Chorus & Pick ‘n’ Mix for Monday, April 28
An official briefing to the Health Minister warns “demand for acute services has outstripped hospital capacity”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāThe key long stories short in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, April 28 are: There’s a nationwide shortage of 500 hospital beds and 200,000 ...3 days ago - Deep sea mining is the new front in Pacific competition
We should have been thinking about the seabed, not so much the cables. When a Chinese research vessel was spotted near Australia’s southern coast in late March, opposition leader Peter Dutton warned the ship was ...3 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On A Neglected, Enduring Aspect Of The Francis Era
Now that the formalities of saying goodbye to Pope Francis are over, the process of selecting his successor can begin in earnest. Framing the choice in terms of “liberal v conservative” is somewhat misleading, given that all members of the College of Cardinals uphold the core Catholic doctrines – which ...3 days ago
- 2025 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 20, 2025 thru Sat, April 26, 2025. This week's roundup is again published by category and sorted by number of articles included in each. The formatting is a ...3 days ago
- Governments Are Letting Big Tech Trash Our Planet
Let’s rip the shiny plastic wrapping off a festering truth: planned obsolescence is a deliberate scam, and governments worldwide, including New Zealand’s, are complicit in letting tech giants churn out disposable junk. From flimsy smartphones that croak after two years to laptops with glued-in batteries, the tech industry’s business model ...3 days ago
- In Loving Memory Of Kyle Whorrall
When I first saw press photos of Mr Whorrall, an America PhD entomology student & researcher who had been living out a dream to finish out his studies in Auckland, my first impression, besides sadness, was how gentle he appeared.Press released the middle photo from Mr Whorrall’s Facebook pageBy all ...4 days ago - National’s Betrayal of Renters and First-Time Buyers
It's definitely not a renters market in New Zealand, as reported by 1 News last night. In fact the housing crisis has metastasised into a full-blown catastrophe in 2025, and the National Party Government’s policies are pouring petrol on the flames. Renters are being crushed under skyrocketing costs, first-time buyers ...4 days ago
- Would I Lie to You?
Would I lie to you? (oh yeah)Would I lie to you honey? (oh, no, no no)Now would I say something that wasn't true?I'm asking you sugar, would I lie to you?Writer(s): David Allan Stewart, Annie Lennox.Opinions issue forth from car radios or the daily news…They demand a bluer National, with ...4 days ago - Fact brief – Do the 31,000 signatures of the OISM Petition Project invalidate the scientific c...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Do the 31,000 signatures of the OISM Petition Project invalidate the scientific consensus on climate change? Climatologists made up only 0.1% of signatories ...4 days ago
- A culture of cruelty.
In the 1980s and early 1990s when I wrote about Argentine and South American authoritarianism, I borrowed the phrase “cultura del miedo” (culture of fear) from Juan Corradi, Guillermo O’Donnell, Norberto Lechner and others to characterise the social anomaly that exists in a country ruled by a state terror regime ...4 days ago - Northern Australia: fortress, gateway and resource powerhouse
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...5 days ago
- Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to April 26
Chris Bishop has unveiled plans for new roads in Tauranga, Auckland and Northland that will cost up to a combined $10 billion. Photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from Aotearoa political economy around housing, poverty and climate in the week to Saturday, April 26:Chris Bishop ploughed ahead this week with spending ...5 days ago - Debt Is A Form Of Government Control
Unless you've been living under a rock, you would have noticed that New Zealand’s government, under the guise of economic stewardship, is tightening the screws on its citizens, and using debt as a tool of control. This isn’t just a conspiracy theory whispered in pub corners...it’s backed by hard data ...5 days ago
- The 2025 Budget in a World of Trade Warfare
The budget runup is far from easy.Budget 2025 day is Thursday 22 May. About a month earlier in a normal year, the macroeconomic forecasts would be completed (the fiscal ones would still be tidying up) and the main policy decisions would have been made (but there would still be a ...5 days ago - EGU2025 – Presentation about our translation activities
As mentioned in the recently published prolog to EGU2025 article, I submitted an abstract to talk about some of our translation activities and the challenges we have been facing with those. This blog post is a "companion article" to that presentation in session EOS4.3 Geoethics and Global Anthropogenic Change: Geoscience for Policy, ...5 days ago
- The drums of war revisited
On 25 April 2021, I published an internal all-staff Anzac Day message. I did so as the Secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, which is responsible for Australia’s civil defence, and its resilience in ...6 days ago
- Cameron Slater’s New Website: Same Old Defamation
You’ve likely noticed that the disgraced blogger of Whale Oil Beef Hooked infamy, Cameron Slater, is still slithering around the internet, peddling his bile on a shiny new blogsite calling itself The Good Oil. If you thought bankruptcy, defamation rulings, and a near-fatal health scare would teach this idiot a ...6 days ago
- David Seymour’s Atlas Network Receiving Unwanted Attention
The Atlas Network, a sprawling web of libertarian think tanks funded by fossil fuel barons and corporate elites, has sunk its claws into New Zealand’s political landscape. At the forefront of this insidious influence is David Seymour, the ACT Party leader, whose ties to Atlas run deep.With the National Party’s ...6 days ago
- Nicola Willis To Blame For Family Boost Debacle
Nicola Willis, National’s supposed Finance Minister, has delivered another policy failure with the Family Boost scheme, a childcare rebate that was big on promises but has been very small on delivery. Only 56,000 families have signed up, a far cry from the 130,000 Willis personally championed in National’s campaign. This ...6 days ago
- Editors’ pick: ‘On the value of military service’
This article was first published on 7 February 2025. In January, I crossed the milestone of 24 years of service in two militaries—the British and Australian armies. It is fair to say that I am ...6 days ago
- Rest easy, my friend.
He shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old.Age shall not weary him, nor the years condemn.At the going down of the sun and in the morningI will remember him.My mate Keith died yesterday, peacefully in the early hours. My dear friend in Rotorua, whom I’ve been ...6 days ago - The Hoon around the week to April 25
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with regular and special guests, including: on news New Zealand abstained from a vote on a global shipping levy on climate emissions and downgraded the importance ...6 days ago
- The Men Commenting on Lorde
Hi,In case you missed it, New Zealand icon Lorde has a new single out. It’s called “What Was That”, and has a very low key music video that was filmed around her impromptu performance in New York’s Washington Square Park. When police shut down the initial popup, one of my ...6 days ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2025
Open access notables Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic, Guinaldo et al., Communications Earth & Environment The year 2023 shattered numerous heat records both globally and regionally. We here focus on the drivers of the unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which started in ...6 days ago
- Military denial: the basis of deterrence, and of response if deterrence fails
A strategy of denial is now the cornerstone concept for Australia’s National Defence Strategy. The term’s use as an overarching guide to defence policy, however, has led to some confusion on what it actually means ...6 days ago
- Join us at 5pm for this week’s Hoon
Photo by Beth Macdonald on UnsplashKia oraCome and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm today.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat with myself, and regular guests climate correspondent and on climate ...6 days ago - Fiscal failure
The IMF’s twice-yearly World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor publications have come out in the last couple of days. If there is gloom in the GDP numbers (eg this chart for the advanced countries, and we don’t score a lot better on the comparable one for the 2019 to ...7 days ago
- Climate Change: Fucking the ETS again
For a while, it looked like the government had unfucked the ETS, at least insofar as unit settings were concerned. They had to be forced into it by a court case, but at least it got done, and when National came to power, it learned the lesson (and then fucked ...7 days ago
- What’s secret? When is it secret? Well, that’s complicated
The argument over US officials’ misuse of secure but non-governmental messaging platform Signal falls into two camps. Either it is a gross error that undermines national security, or it is a bit of a blunder ...7 days ago
- Today’s Headlines: David Seymour’s ECE Risks & Coalition Government Lies
Cost of living ~1/3 of Kiwis needed help with food as cost of living pressures continue to increase - turning to friends, family, food banks or Work and Income in the past year, to find food. 40% of Kiwis also said they felt schemes offered little or no benefit, according ...7 days ago - Is The NZ Media Awards Sponsored By a Conspiracy Theorist?
Hi,Perhaps in 2025 it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the CEO and owner of Voyager Internet — the major sponsor of the New Zealand Media Awards — has taken to sharing a variety of Anti-Muslim and anti-Jewish conspiracy theories to his 1.2 million followers.This included sharing a post from ...7 days ago - Australia-India defence cooperation should be about more than navies
In the sprint to deepen Australia-India defence cooperation, navy links have shot ahead of ties between the two countries’ air forces and armies. That’s largely a good thing: maritime security is at the heart of ...7 days ago
- Twice the Impact, Half the Budget: Budget 25 Must Invest in Whakaata Māori
Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Broadcasting, Tākuta Ferris, and MP for Tāmaki Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, are demanding the Government significantly increase its investment in Whakaata Māori in Budget 2025. The call comes following the release of the network’s 2025 Social Value Report at an event today, attended by MP ...12 hours ago
- Te Pāti Māori: Denying the Right to Vote is a Breach of Te Tiriti and Human Rights
The National Party’s announcement to reinstate a total ban on prisoner voting is a shameful step backwards. Denying the right to vote does not strengthen society — it weakens our democracy and breaches Te Tiriti o Waitangi. “Voting is not a privilege to be taken away — it is a ...19 hours ago
- Release: Closure of North Shore Women’s Centre a huge loss
Today’s confirmed closure of the North Shore Women’s Centre after losing government funding is a huge loss for women in Auckland. ...2 days ago - Release: Simeon Brown hid Dunedin Hospital downgrade
Simeon Brown needs to come clean to the people of Dunedin about why he hid plans to downgrade their new hospital’s Intensive Care Unit. ...2 days ago
- Release: Govt cuts will cost jobs, health, and homes
Nicola Willis announced that funding for almost every Government department will be frozen in this year’s budget, costing jobs, making access to public services harder, and fuelling an exodus of nurses, teachers, and other public servants. ...2 days ago
- Govt’s austerity Budget to cause real harm in communities
The Government’s Budget looks set to usher in a new age of austerity. This morning, Minister of Finance Nicola Willis said new spending would be limited to $1.4 billion, cut back from the original intended $2.4 billion, which itself was already $100 million below what Treasury said was needed to ...2 days ago - Right-Wing Government Strips Māori Health Safeguards and Pretends Colonisation Never Happened
Right‑wing ministers are waging a campaign to erase Māori health equity by tearing out its very foundations. ACT’s Todd Stephenson dismisses Treaty‑based nursing standards as “off‑track distractions” and insists nurses only need “skill and a kind heart,” despite clear evidence that cultural competence saves lives. Health Minister Simeon Brown’s funding cuts, hiring ...2 days ago
- Ban on engineered stone essential to protect workers
The Green Party has renewed its call for the Government to ban the use, supply, and manufacture of engineered stone products, as the CTU launches a petition for the implementation of a full ban. ...3 days ago
- Release: Anzac Day a time to recommit to veterans
This Anzac Day, Labour recognises veterans and the service they have given to our country. ...6 days ago
- Education Should be Led by Experts-Not Economists
Te Pāti Māori are appalled by Cabinet's decision to agree to 15 recommendations to the Early Childhood Education (ECE) sector following the regulatory review by the Ministry of Regulation. We emphasise the need to prioritise tamariki Māori in Early Childhood Education, conducted by education experts- not economists. “Our mokopuna deserve ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt’s flagship cost of living policy a failure
After promising $250 a fortnight to many families, the Government has been forced to admit just a couple hundred families are receiving it. ...7 days ago
- Release: Transparency needed on changes to early childhood education
The Government is putting children at risk in early childhood education (ECE) by proposing to loosen the requirement for qualified teachers. ...7 days ago
- Release: Govt funding needed to combat invasive seaweed
The Government must support Northland hapū who have resorted to rakes and buckets to try to control a devastating invasive seaweed that threatens the local economy and environment. ...1 week ago
- New Zealand First Introduces Bill Defining ‘Woman’ and ‘Man’ in Law
New Zealand First has today introduced a Member’s Bill that would ensure the biological definition of a woman and man are defined in law. “This is not about being anti-anyone or anti-anything. This is about ensuring we as a country focus on the facts of biology and protect the ...1 week ago - Release: Labour marks the passing of Pope Francis
Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins joins those mourning the passing of Pope Francis. ...1 week ago
- Release: Boot camps blog post fails to provide clarity
After stonewalling requests for information on boot camps, the Government has now offered up a blog post right before Easter weekend rather than provide clarity on the pilot. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Inflation rises and families feel the squeeze
Inflation is rising again and it’s landing hardest on families already stretched thin. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt doesn’t know how to fund new hospitals
The Government’s health infrastructure plan is big on promises but coy on where the money is coming from. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: $10 million for only 215 students in charter schools
David Seymour is pouring $10 million into charter schools that only have 215 students enrolled. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Food prices further stretching the family budget
Families already stretched by rising costs will struggle with the news food prices are going up again. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Mental health staff and patients at risk without plan
More people could be harmed if Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey does not guarantee to protect patients and workers as the Police withdraw from supporting mental health call outs. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Driver licensing proposal doesn’t put safety first
The Government’s proposal to change driver licensing rules is a mixed bag of sensible and careless. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Students struggling as Govt sits on hands
The Government is continuing to sit on its hands as students struggle to pay rent due to delays with StudyLink. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: More must be done to stop children going hungry
More children are going hungry and statistics showing children in material hardship continue to get worse. ...3 weeks ago
- Greens continue to call for Pacific Visa Waiver
The Green Party recognises the extension of visa allowances for our Pacific whānau as a step in the right direction but continues to call for a Pacific Visa Waiver. ...3 weeks ago
- More children going hungry under Coalition govt
The Government yesterday released its annual child poverty statistics, and by its own admission, more tamariki across Aotearoa are now living in material hardship. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Longer wait for treatment under National
New Zealanders have waited longer to get an appointment with a specialist and to get elective surgery under the National Government. ...3 weeks ago
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- What is a downburst? These winds can be as destructive as tornadoes − we recreate them to test bui...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amal Elawady, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Florida International University A downburst blasts Bangkok, Thailand, in 2017. Natapat Ariyamongkol/iStock/Getty Images Plus From a distance, a downburst can look like a torrent of heavy rain. But at ground level, its behavior ...3 hours ago - Confirmed: Australian weapons sold to Israel, reveals Declassified Australia
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – SPECIAL REPORT: By Michelle Fahy The Australian counter-drone weapons system seen at a weapons demonstration in Israel recently is actually just one of a few that were sold by the Canberra-based company Electro Optic Systems (EOS) and sent through its ...6 hours ago
- Amid Dutton’s ‘hate media’ and Trump’s despotism, press freedom is more vital than ever
COMMENTARY: By Alexandra Wake Despite all the political machinations and hate towards the media coming from the president of the United States, I always thought the majority of Australian politicians supported the role of the press in safeguarding democracy. And I certainly did not expect Peter Dutton — amid an ...8 hours ago
- Election Diary: post-election rate cut and phone call from Trump in the pipeline
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra It used to be de rigueur for the prime minister and opposition leader to turn up to the National Press Club in the final week of the election campaign. But now Liberal leaders are not ...8 hours ago
- Inaccurate 1News reporting on football violence breached broadcasting standards, rules BSA
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Same old polling ups and down…….anyone remember how the parties were doing this time out in 2020……..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-and-chris-hipkins-crash-in-latest-poll-gap-with-national-widest-since-2017/R6MWQK2TQBGK5FY3ZKOEYGVYPU/
Here you are, if you really need it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
Wikipedia has a similar entry for every election.
Scary if you are a Labour supporter……
One doesn't often get a multi headed angel of death featuring in our media. I expected a lurid image of same but we got Barbie instead.
I have to say that this new Barbie does appear to be somewhat underwhelming. There is even a real possibility that wee girls may be traumatised by it. Bit of a worry…
Looks similar, but dressed up and a lot larger, to what was thrown at Steven Joyce up at Waitangi………
Hmmm….wonder when the latest Curia poll results will be released.
Curia typically polls the first week of each month – so should be out very soon.
They polled last week.
Looking at the June dates – they finished polling on the Tuesday – and released the results on the Saturday. So about 4 days later.
It that pattern holds true – you should expect to see the results at the end of this week.
Is there some reason you are concerned? Curia polling typically has Labour a little below the Talbot Mills results – though they often rate the Greens higher than TM.
you can see the patterns here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
not concerned…curious. With the other polls released this week and the fact i was polled by Curia raises the interest to see how they compare
On the polling today of Labour at 31% and Greens at 8% + 1 seat, this is how the calculator distributes Parliamentary seats:
Act 19 MPs
National 46 MPs
Maori 5 MPs (assuming 4% and 3 electoral seats)
Labour 40 MPs
Greens 10 MPs (assuming 1 electoral seat)
So the Labour MPs who would be at risk would be:
With a stab at the list rankings, you would probably only keep from the current List:
The entire rest of Labour caucus becomes political mince.
Now sure, it ain't 2014 yet, but we're getting there.
Maybe it's time Chippie showed he had a plan and stopped fucking around with international plane travel, sausage rolls and 'boy from Hutt' bullshit.
Lots of Labour are about to lose their $170k jobs.
https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator/#!|percentage|ACT%20New%20Zealand,15,|Aotearoa%20Legalise%20Cannabis%20Party,,|DemocracyNZ,,|Freedoms%20New%20Zealand,,|Heartland%20New%20Zealand%20Party,,|M%C4%81ori%20Party,4,3|New%20Conservative,,|New%20Nation%20Party,,|New%20Zealand%20First%20Party,4,|New%20Zealand%20Labour%20Party,31,|NZ%20Outdoors%20&%20Freedom%20Party,,|ONE%20Party,,|The%20Greens%60%20The%20Green%20Party%20of%20Aotearoa/New%20Zealand,8,1|The%20New%20Zealand%20National%20Party,36,|The%20Opportunities%20Party%20(TOP),,|Vision%20New%20Zealand,,|Other%20party%201,,
In case not obvious it would take a Maori or Green miracle to stop Act gaining about 6 Cabinet seats at this point.
The only person capable of stopping ACT having places in cabinet (on this poll) leads NZF. Being required for a majority and providing confidence and supply to a National minority (rather than a NACT coalition) government.
Yes it's about to get tactical.
No SPC, that doesn't really work. NZF and the Nats would still need ACT to govern. The Nats will not want ACT as loose cannons on the cross-benches, and anyway Seymour will want the baubles.
But what worries me about this poll (and remembering it was taken during the cabinet ministers shit-show and that Labour will out perform the Nats in the campaign) is that if NZF go up one point to 5% and Labour drops a point to 30, the Coalition of Cuts (Nats/ACT/NZF) will have 53% and the goodies will have 42% (Lab/Gr/TPM).
That will be a serious wipe out. But I think the polls will improve as the cabinet stabilises and the economy improves and as Hipkins out-debates Luxon..
National were a minority government 2008-2017. No coalition (United/ACT/MP were all support partners).
I doubt NZP would give c and s to a NACT government.
As per the polls 48% is enough to form a government after the loss of wasted votes (which would could be as high as 10% this year – 4% NZF, 3% TOP etc).
Only a switch of National voters to NZF would stop undue influence of ACT on the next National government.
The same tactical voting by National voters prevented a Labour-Green coalition in 2020.
Emily Henderson has already chucked it in, after one term. Angie Warren-Clark current sitting list MP from Tauranga is her replacement. Writing on the wall is obvious. If Dr Shane Reti fails to win the seat back for National then it will herald another landslide for Labour.
Landslide in what sense?
State Highway 25?
Apart from the aberration of the 2020 result, and on current polling if Labour were to again win the seat of Whangarei the half century blue seat of National, then expect a similar election result to 2020.
It won't happen in my opinion……the sands in the electoral hourglass are dropping rapidly for Labour……or if you prefer, the tide has turned and the winds are on the nose. Labour may 'just' squeak back in on the day country wide if we are lucky…….I wouldn't put the house on that result though, NZ has always been a politically divided country and becoming even more fractured.
Labour won Whangarei in 2020 by about 430 votes. That was a tsunami-scale high water mark.
Labour will not win Whangarei in 2023. It's not even a bellweather seat.
If Labour were to win it then it would be another "tsunami-scale high water mark"….that was my point. So in one respect Whangarei could be a bell weather seat albeit a tsunami one.
Absolutely.
Even in his foreign policy speech he has to mention "boy from the Hutt"
Bro shut up, stop trying to be relatable with the working folk, it’s not a costume you can put on, you're a multimillionaire with the charisma of Phil Goff, just give us some damn policies ffs.
All we've heard so far is what Labour won't do… Not what they will do.
Have a read……https://www.labour.org.nz/our-priorities
Oh and knock yourself out on this…….https://www.labour.org.nz/our-record
Telling us to 'have a read' of the wins isn't going to change anything at all.
It’s barely 3 months to voting.
Who said it would change anything in this instance…..there are none so blind as those that don't want to see……and then complain about being in the dark…….
It'll take more than a mangled aphorism to get Chippie out of this.
Polling trend says otherwise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_election_(blocs).svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
We've seen other elections at this point in the campaign where people were sure the left wouldn't win and they turned out to be wrong. Not saying your analysis of what Labour needs to do is wrong, just that messaging of 'we're going to lose' is self defeating.
Do you really think that Phil Twyford can lose the entire 10,500 majority he had in 2020? Jeez Wayne.
In 2017 there was 3,000 votes in it, so yes on this tracking Twyford is in trouble.
Its not so much "we are going to lose" rather we are going to take a hit…..but hopefully the electoral gods are wearing red and we get over the line….even just….over the line.
TVNZ reports that there is to be a new Maori name for Otago University
Apparently it also means a place where many go because they are thirsty.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/07/11/otago-university-adopts-new-logo-and-maori-name/
no more otah-cow thankfully.
This is an excellent short video (about 2 minutes) from Pew Research Center on how they conduct their surveys.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/05/12/methods-101-random-sampling/