Daily review 14/08/2020

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, August 14th, 2020 - 104 comments
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Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

104 comments on “Daily review 14/08/2020 ”

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  1. aj 1
    14 August 2020 at 5:33 pm

    I'd far rather stare at an empty podium than at Jessica Mutch when awaiting these press conferences.

  2. McFlock 2
    14 August 2020 at 5:41 pm

    15k tests yesterday

    Up from roughly a couple thousand a day before this outbreak. Nice scale-up.

  3. Robert Guyton 3
    14 August 2020 at 5:45 pm

    The Prime Minister's presentation of the new situation was elegant and sound. She's impressive in the face of challenge.

    • ScottGN 3.1
      14 August 2020 at 6:00 pm

      Yeah it was impressive as always Robert. I liked her focus on sealing the perimeter of the cluster rather than chasing down the rabbit hole after patient zero so Auckland can begin to move down alert levels

    • McFlock 3.3
      14 August 2020 at 6:38 pm

      And has a skill I never learned: hearing stupid questions and giving tolerant and reasonable answers.

      That question about whether it's still a team of five million would have had me telling the questioner to fuck off just as a matter of reflex, and she explained it consistently with the original analogy, and then told people outside Auckland how they could help those within Auckland. Quite spectacular.

      • In Vino 3.3.1
        14 August 2020 at 9:00 pm

        Absolutely agree. Coming in late on repeat TV news channels 6 and 8, I happened to see that response to what I think was meant to be a hostile question. Quick, natural smile, perfect reply with candour and natural confidence.

        Jacinda is, I think, the most talented, connecting communicator we have had as PM since Rob Muldoon at his peak. He was of the opposite nature – domineering, calculating, but still beguiling his 'mob'.

        Lange was wittiest; Winston at his best was close to Muldoon, but less focused; I hoped for a lot from Palmer, but in dropping his legal, academic air he turned into the most boring speaker ever. Kirk was excellent, but too brief in existence.

        I never liked PMs like Key and English who managed to mangle the English language while either charming or plodding…

        I have waited to see how Jacinda would rate. I now believe that we are lucky to have one of the very best PMs we have had, in that she combines excellent communication skills with a good, kind character.

        Regardless of how much social change she has been able to achieve to date, she is the leader that we on the Left cannot do without.

      • Incognito 3.3.2
        14 August 2020 at 9:05 pm

        And has a skill I never learned: hearing stupid questions and giving tolerant and reasonable answers.

        Some learn this during parenthood, some during a career in education, some never do. Don’t worry, ‘soft skills’ are not for the faint-hearted.

        • McFlock 3.3.2.1
          14 August 2020 at 9:27 pm

          yeah – besides the choice of Winston and a myriad other instances of good luck, having a PM who has a toddler and therefore up to date with the communication skills to deal with journolists and tories 🙂

      • georgecom 3.3.3
        15 August 2020 at 4:37 pm

        she suffers fools and foolish questions quite gladly doesn't she, or with skill and aplomb anyway.

  4. ScottGN 4
    14 August 2020 at 5:47 pm

    Apart from the dick who wrote to Collins asking her to resist the lockdown measures the National Party in general has been very quiet today. Maybe they think they are about to catch a break at last?

    • Robert Guyton 4.1
      14 August 2020 at 5:48 pm

      They may be ruminating on Mr Bridge's resignation.

    • gsays 4.2
      14 August 2020 at 6:49 pm

      If there was a skerrick of self awareness amongst 'em, today was the day to keep it zipped.

      Again I feel The Greens were prescient with giving The Nats their share of questions. The more they open their mouths the more they show how unfit they are to govern. climate

  5. Robert Guyton 5
    14 August 2020 at 5:50 pm

    "

    "Crude, but effective.

    The same, sadly, applies to “Merv’s” intervention in National’s 2020 Auckland Central candidate selection. Newshub has alleged that this pseudonymous caller of late-night talkback shows is in fact a regional representative of the National Party with a bee in his bonnet about Nuwi Samarakone, the Sri Lankan-born party activist apparently favoured by the party hierarchy. “Merv’s” contribution followed the circulation, by a person, or persons, unknown, of a photograph of Ms Samarakone (a former ballet dancer) posing for the camera in leotards. Astonishingly, that was all it took to make sure that, at least as far as its three leading contenders are concerned, the Auckland Central contest will be an all-white affair. Childish brutality indeed!"

    Ibid (again, Chris Trotter) – perfectly skewered.

  6. Robert Guyton 6
    14 August 2020 at 5:54 pm

    Again, Chris Trotter pins it:

    "It is very difficult to interpret Mr Te Kahika’s activity as anything other than an attempt to impede, undermine and in every way frustrate the Government’s attempt to respond adequately to a proven resurgence of community transmission of Covid-19 in the city of Auckland and, quite possibly, across the rest of New Zealand."

    &

    " If Holmes’s important stipulation that “the character of every act depends upon the circumstances in which it is done”, then Mr Te Kahika’s actions can only be described as extremely reckless and irresponsible."

    Well worth reading, imo.

    http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2020/08/is-billy-tk-shouting-fire-in-crowded.html

  7. Robert Guyton 7
    14 August 2020 at 5:59 pm

    James Dann's question is pretty funny…

    "Gerry Brownlee was a woodwork teacher the leaky building crisis was caused by bad carpentry I’m just asking questions"

    • Draco T Bastard 7.1
      14 August 2020 at 7:57 pm

      😆 yes

    • G unit 7.2
      14 August 2020 at 8:41 pm

      He was my woodwork teacher. Nothings changed, he's still a bully and not very popular with his peers. A family friend knew him too, that's how I know combined with the attitude of the other teachers towards him when he wasn't around. Something that surprised me as a 13yo boy and stuck with me. It wasn't very often teachers openly dissed one of their own in front of students. Just saying..

      • McFlock 7.2.1
        14 August 2020 at 8:54 pm

        Doing the math from his wiki page, twelve years of teaching before parliament in 1996 would put him in the tail-end of the days when teachers would lob chalk, dusters, and off-cuts at students.

        Could be entertaining if they were gentle lobs and the teachers were original about it, but bloody terrifying if the teacher was a bully.

  8. ScottGN 8
    14 August 2020 at 6:03 pm

    One of the more stupid journos just asked her if we are still a team of 5 million if there are different alert levels around the country. Ardern’s response will be come a classic, “Yes, because not everyone in the team is on the field at the same time.”

  9. Robert Guyton 9
    14 August 2020 at 6:09 pm

    "What was the tone of the Prime Minister's announcement"? asked TVOne.

    A very feminine question, I thought; and I rejoiced! smiley

  10. Muttonbird 10
    14 August 2020 at 6:16 pm

    12 more days, two weeks total. Could have been worse.

    Child 1 is upset – doesn't like remote learning (I agree, digital learning is a poor facsimile of the real thing).

    Child 2 is fine – voracious appetite for schoolwork no matter the circumstance.

    I was all over the place the last few days but JA brought us all around yet again.

  11. Stuart Munro 11
    14 August 2020 at 6:18 pm

    Well, it's looking like we've nailed it again.

    The electoral clincher being of course, beating Aussie again wink.

    Reckon not many on the team think Jacinda didn't earn her place.

    • Anne 11.1
      14 August 2020 at 6:39 pm

      How long you reckon before some Aussie journos come up with blistering attack-lines on Ardern and NZ Govt. Y'know… can't cope with NZ being better 'n them at handling just about everything.cheeky

      • Stuart Munro 11.1.1
        14 August 2020 at 6:51 pm

        As a number of folk who thought they were clever have discovered, there aren't too many chinks in Jacinda's armour. I think the irredeemably negative will mostly look at the fate of Alan Jones and decide "Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent."

        They may rage against the Victorian government in frustration however.

        I suppose too, having won two tests, we don’t need a third game eh.

  12. Ad 12
    14 August 2020 at 6:26 pm

    This 12 days will suck all political oxygen towards Ardern's leadership fire.

    Labour will come out of it over 55%.

    Economy and health will be the top issue as voters enter the polling booth.

    • weka 12.1
      14 August 2020 at 6:32 pm

      when do you think the election will be?

      • Muttonbird 12.1.1
        14 August 2020 at 6:37 pm

        September 19.

        • bwaghorn 12.1.1.1
          14 August 2020 at 6:43 pm

          4 weeks after level 2 probably is fair.

          Although there is nothing to stop the other parties hitting the campaign trail everywhere other than Auckland.

          Shit can act and national even get 100 people to a meeting!!!

          • Incognito 12.1.1.1.1
            14 August 2020 at 6:49 pm

            Shit can act and national even get 100 people to a meeting!!!

            They should merge and merve them into combined Oppo meetings; on current polling they may soon be equal in numbers.

      • observer 12.1.2
        14 August 2020 at 6:39 pm

        October 17.

        Allows time for Auckland to return to level 2, barring more bad news (possible at any time, this year, next year, whenever).

        Politically smart not to give National a loser's excuse.

        • Anne 12.1.2.1
          14 August 2020 at 6:50 pm

          October 10.

          One week to build up again and two weeks lost in Levels 2 & 3.

          Warning: my predictions are more often wrong than right. 🙁

      • gsays 12.1.3
        14 August 2020 at 6:55 pm

        The PM mentioned that the Electoral Commission had been doing work on an election @ Level 2.

      • SPC 12.1.4
        14 August 2020 at 8:37 pm

        October 3.

        Moved two weeks because of the two weeks at Level 3 in Auckland.

        • EE 12.1.4.1
          14 August 2020 at 10:12 pm

          September 19.
          Today Jacinda referred to “the philosophy of New Zealanders”…
          Go Early. Go Hard.

    • Gabby 12.2
      14 August 2020 at 6:32 pm

      Somebody really ought to ask Judith Codger to say something stoopid, I mean add her constructive comments.

  13. aj 13
    14 August 2020 at 6:39 pm

    Too soon to call but very encouraging. The A-Team. Why would anyone with half a brain consider change?

  14. Muttonbird 14
    14 August 2020 at 6:57 pm

    Old Merv, eh? In normal times this incident would have completely destroyed the National Party structure and Goodfellow in particular. How many lives has that guy had?

    But here we are in post-pandemic times, and in a mega-cluster of National Party screw-ups, and it is nothing but a footnote.

    If the National Party wants to move forward and provide this country with a decent opposition for the next decade they need to sack Peter Goodfellow right now. The poison is at the top.

  15. greywarshark 15
    14 August 2020 at 7:06 pm

    edit
    This is not what I think is good leadership from our public education institutions.
    A Southland polytechnic department head allegedly shared conspiracy theories about Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and US billionaire Bill Gates to a class of students.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/300078747/tutor-alleged-to-have-shared-conspiracy-theories-with-polytech-class

    An outline of the course noted requirements included displaying '’self-awareness, reflective practice and personal leadership in a health and wellbeing setting'’.

    [Merle] Petersen, when asked if she believed those statements to be factually correct, provided a written statement saying all facts were open to interpretation. She was also approached in person by a Stuff reporter, but referred comment through SIT.

    When asked if she thought it appropriate to repeat conspiracy theories at an academic institution, her statement said students were encouraged to do their own research into topics…

    The paper about which the discussions took place focused on economic and social policy, she said.

    This required students to examine how economic theory and social policy in New Zealand had contributed to oppression and marginalisation of particular groups.

    ‘’The discipline we teach, and into which students are enrolled, has an expectation that we educate the students to become aware of the socio-political contexts in which we work.

    This is serious and I think this person should be sacked, and the Southern Institute of Technology should be closely checked to see how far this lazy system of tutor employment should be going. Students are very impressionable when at these colleges, and indeed are very influenced at any age when they are fully engaged in study and learning. The last thing they need to learn is that nothing they are told is really reliable. They can mislearn about life and the universe at home. When they go somewhere official they should be able to expect more than today's reckons from a teacher with a balanced viewpoint, male or female.

    She is the Services Program Manager at Southern Institute of Technology, SIT.

    She is part of the Aotearoa New Zealand Association of Social Workers (ANZASW) Te Ropu Tauwhiro i Aotearoa

    • Muttonbird 15.1
      14 August 2020 at 7:22 pm

      Merle Petersen

      Sounds like a South African import.

      There's a few SA/Zim expat imports here who are virulently against any kind of socially conscious government in their adoptive home.

      Berend de Boer, the gun nut, is another one.

      • greywarshark 15.1.1
        14 August 2020 at 7:50 pm

        On facebook – https://www.facebook.com/merle.petersen.7

        Merle Grimwood-Petterson? Invercargill, NZ works at SIT

        Amazing how many there are by Petersen name in the world – quite a few in South Africa. Her Facebook page is full of inspirational quotes with flowers etc.

      • observer 15.1.2
        14 August 2020 at 8:01 pm

        "Sounds like a South African import."

        You're letting prejudice get in the way of the evidence.

        One problem for liberal/lefties that many of us have to face up to is that the conspiracy crazies draw a lot of support from Maori/Pasifika minorities, in the same way that Brian Tamaki does. God moves in mysterious ways.

        • Muttonbird 15.1.2.1
          14 August 2020 at 8:06 pm

          You can take the white person out of South Africa, but you can't take South Africa out of the white person.

      • joe90 15.1.3
        15 August 2020 at 9:59 am

        Berend de Boer

        I think he's a Dutchie.

      • greywarshark 15.2.1
        14 August 2020 at 7:59 pm

        From link:

        …SIT, when earlier approached for comment, replied with a statement saying it was not aware of the accusations, nor had the tertiary institutions ever received any previous complaints about Petersen’s political views.

        '’SIT is a politically neutral institution,'' the statement said….

        I feel that this is not an 'open-minded' neutral learning institution if encouraging this sort of discourse to happen.

        …It is alleged Petersen then said Gates, who had plans to depopulate the world, held a secret meeting with Ardern.

        When asked by a member of the class if Gates had to quarantine, she responded with an eye roll. ‘'She was deadly serious,’' the attendee said.

        Petersen allegedly referred to Ardern as “dangerous”, telling the class people needed to “keep an eye on her”.

        The person who attended the class was concerned Petersen’s views could have a negative impact on the students, many of whom wanted to be social workers.

        Oranga Tamariki candidates?

        • greywarshark 15.2.1.1
          14 August 2020 at 8:07 pm

          And just to compare teaching styles. This NZ fear-laden, darkly intoned conspiracy theory approach and the Finnish one that appears to produce open keen wide-thinking students.

          From Where to Invade Next with Michael Moore.

  16. Robert Guyton 16
    14 August 2020 at 7:22 pm

    Brownlee!

    "National’s deputy leader Gerry Brownlee has backtracked over his questioning of the Government’s handling of coronavirus information, saying it was not his intention to play into the hands of conspiracy theorists."

    Yeah/nah, Gerry.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122453434/gerry-brownlee-admits-getting-into-a-bad-spot-over-covid-conspiracy-theories

  17. Robert Guyton 17
    14 August 2020 at 7:23 pm

    "Speaking to Newstalk ZB’s Canterbury Mornings on Friday, Brownlee admitted he had got himself into a “bad spot” and that he “certainly didn’t intend to create any fear”.

    “The way it has been presented has been unfortunate, I’ve certainly not enjoyed it,” he said."

    Pfffffffft!!!!

  18. Grafton Gully 18
    14 August 2020 at 7:33 pm

    David Skilling – "But this is an opportunity to invest in skills upgrading, capital and technology investment, to move to a higher productivity, higher wage economy."

    I believe Labour the best to deliver this. National too interested in the short term, Greens would argue it means unsustainable growth, ACT would be opposed because skills upgrading conflicts with individual choice (big government offers me the way to improve my skill level but as an individual I am free to do what I like and I don't like the government telling me what to do).

    https://www.firstnzcapital.co.nz/rest/document/public/encrypted?hash=a5LZhJCykwcmuH1pLIrUgvuGNDRHeWnPoirqqcdJfxnKf89nU02b7PozFdXP30mdl8GA1Bt8Aw0%3D

  19. observer 19
    14 August 2020 at 7:48 pm

    Today's forgotten fact:

    The lead-up to the 2011 election was dominated by NZ hosting the Rugby World Cup. All over the news, all day, every day. There were 34 days between the final (won by John Key, with help from some All Blacks) and the election.

    There are 35 days between now and the (provisional) election date, September 19.

  20. JanM 20
    14 August 2020 at 7:49 pm

    I wonder what possessed Hilary Barry to take such a shrewish tone with the Prime Minister this evening? Jacinda looked upset by her tone and what sort of a silly question is asking her what she has got to say to the business people of Auckland as though she is a naughty child?

    • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 20.1
      14 August 2020 at 8:06 pm

      I also object to them having that Gorman fellow on giving Covid updates. He has, I think, a political agenda, to bag the Coalition government.

      I'd much soon they had David Skeggs or Baker – much more objective.

    • Anne 20.2
      14 August 2020 at 9:11 pm

      I saw that too Jan M and wondered the same thing. Either Barry has a bee in her bonnet about the Level 3 extension or she was trying to do the serious political interviewer thing and it didn't come off… or she’s a Nat supporter and let down her cover.

      Whatever, Jacinda looked exhausted so hope she 's allowed to take it easy this week-end. She deserves a short break.

  21. SPC 21
    14 August 2020 at 9:54 pm

    Hooton claims that the next government will let the virus in.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12356349

    Whoever the next Prime Minister is, they will allow Covid-19 into New Zealand. Both leaders adamantly deny it now.

    Polling overwhelmingly demands they publicly support what I called in March the idyllic scenario

    What he really means is

    1. that National is captured by those blinded by greed (a bit stoopid) and they arrogantly presume they can force Labour into opening borders recklessly (like a hooker touting for more custom by not requiring condom use) – constant bleating in the media (as per winter of discontent 2000).

    2. Oz opposes us having elimination and Level 1 (it makes them look second-rate) because they can only bubble with us at level 2 (where we get tourists if we allow their infection rate).

    Evidence what Kelly said today in Oz, that having level 1 was too risky (you only get there by elimination and they do not have a policy of elimination).

    Australia's acting chief medical officer Paul Kelly said today New Zealand should not have returned to pre-pandemic life after going 102 days without community transmission. He said despite New Zealand's initial lockdown being successful, a return to mass gatherings and lack of social distancing was problematic. "That is just very dangerous," he told the Australian Senate's coronavirus inquiry today. "To go right back to a pre-Covid state makes them extremely vulnerable."

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356678 3.

    the right wing political world is embarrassed by comparative failure – their constant refrain is the economic cost of effective pandemic response, so they hate our example (low debt enabling the goal of elimination and the reward of level 1 recovery which is out of their reach sans vaccine).

    Evidence Irish Times

    the recent change in alert levels saying it was a "recipe for economic disaster." Burke-Kennedy suggested that following New Zealand's lead on lockdowns would turn Ireland's recession into a depression and trigger a higher number of suicides.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/irish-newspaper-slams-new-zealand-s-alert-level-change.html

    They have no choice but to accept community spread, the old TINA, thus their fear of our models existence. Nice how they claim they will save business men from suicide by allowing the deaths of less important old, poor and sick people.

    David Seymour is saying what National really believes.

    If a lockdown is required to maintain elimination, then it is time to have an honest conversation about accepting a new reality that the virus is here to stay and we must learn to live with it intelligently," Seymour said on Friday.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/08/act-leader-david-seymour-wants-new-zealand-to-accept-new-reality-that-covid-19-is-here-to-stay.html

    • Incognito 21.1
      14 August 2020 at 10:12 pm

      I believe Covid-19 will become endemic, globally, which means that we (NZ) need to have a plan for the future. I disagree that now is the time to have that conversation. After the Election, the Government should lead or initiate an inclusive debate about the way forward for NZ, preferably with much input from the public as well as from various experts, not just health experts and business people – we’re in this together.

      • SPC 21.1.1
        14 August 2020 at 10:25 pm

        Beliefs mean nothing. And your Hootonesque apologetic ones especially. Decisions need to be based on evidence.

        Even beginning that discussion before stage 3 vaccine trials conclude is premature.

        There are those on the right who would not wait behind our border even 6 months of 2021 for a vaccine. And on the right is where they belong.

        • Incognito 21.1.1.1
          14 August 2020 at 11:17 pm

          Fair enough 🙂

          Covid-19 is here to stay and won’t be eliminated or eradicated and will be endemic unless there is a highly effective vaccine for it. However, given what we know about coronaviruses, it is unlikely that even with a vaccine it will be eradicated.

          The various scenarios should be discussed sooner rather than later and to pin all our hopes on an effective and safe vaccine becoming available in the very near future is fanciful; talking of evidence. So, we wait and do nothing, say nothing, and most certainly do discuss nothing? Avoid at all cost because even talking about it might put lives at risk? Because that would be the domain of RWNJs? I hope you don’t truly believe that because it is insulting to anyone’s intelligence.

          There are those on the right, who would not wait behind our border even 6 months of 2021 for a vaccine. And on the right is where they belong.

          Just as well that I didn’t even suggest anything of the kind. You’re achieving nothing by turning this into a hyper-polarised debate or by politicising it as a Left-Right issue. As I said, we’re in this together and simplistic binaries are of no help with complex issues, they are counter-productive.

          And your Hootonesque apologetic ones especially.

          I love your attempt at Monty Python humour 😀

          Your wilful avoidance and attempt to shut down debate before it has even started does not sit well with me 🙁

          • SPC 21.1.1.1.1
            14 August 2020 at 11:34 pm

            Ever answered these questions

            1. were people vaccinated for the plague, and if not where did it go?

            2. were people vaccinated for Spanish flu and if not where did it go?

            PS I cannot see how any discussion about a plan for the future, based on a belief that SARS COV2 will always be with us, can occur in the absence of consensus about that.

            • Incognito 21.1.1.1.1.1
              15 August 2020 at 12:03 am

              PS I cannot see how any discussion about a plan for the future, based on a belief that SARS COV2 will always be with us, can occur in the absence of consensus about that. [my italics]

              And how do you propose do we reach a consensus about that? Given that there are no plans to eradicate the virus on a global scale and with over 21 million cases in total and rising by hundreds of thousands daily. And if we don’t have or reach consensus, what do we then? When or what does trigger any discussion about a plan for the future? What do we do in the meantime? Are we allowed to talk about it before then and should we? If not, why not? Why are you so resistant (antagonistic) towards this?

              • SPC …
                15 August 2020 at 7:37 am

                Because having a plan is really about opening up borders – allowing greater risk of and toleration for community spread.

                And that involves greater risk to the poor, ethnic minorities, those with health conditions and the aged.

                And it does not deliver better results than elimination and operating at Level 1.

                • SPC …
                  15 August 2020 at 7:52 am

                  It’s also based around protecting the capitalist base to the global economy that leads to indebted and under reourced government, rather than questioning its assumptions (why is printed QE money called a debt future generations owe – that just means they get underfunded health and education and welfare systems).

                  • Incognito …
                    15 August 2020 at 11:06 pm

                    Not necessarily. Anyway, some sectors of our society, including health and education, are not doing well because of the lockdowns. I wouldn’t want to be an NCEA student this year or a cancer patient waiting to be seen or treated by a specialist. Mental health is also taking a battering, it seems although numbers are hard to come by.

                • Incognito …
                  15 August 2020 at 11:01 pm

                  I disagree. A plan could include different versions of MIQ. It wouldn’t necessarily mean what you think it means. But if you start from an extreme PoV, I can see why you wouldn’t be keen to even contemplate other options and just want to stick with BAU and shut down any discussion about a ‘plan’ as RW conspiracy.

            • McFlock 21.1.1.1.1.2
              15 August 2020 at 12:20 am

              The answers to 1 and 2 are "millions of infections and dead, and social isolation efforts, created a herd immunity and slowed the spread enough to lower the reproductive rate below 1".

              The goal is to avoid the millions of dead, no? So we either wait for a vaccine, or until it blows over. And if that takes a couple of years, well at least we're not digging mass graves.

              • weka …
                15 August 2020 at 12:52 am

                herd immunity worked with Spanish Flu because enough people got it and died? i.e. if smaller numbers of people had it, it wouldn't have gone away? And if smaller numbers of people had died it wouldn't have gone away?

                • McFlock …
                  15 August 2020 at 1:25 am

                  Sorry, was unclear. The survivors were immune. The others died.

                  Bubonic plague has a different vector for infection, but many of the basic techniques of prevention are still relevant – ISTR someone mentioning at TS ships with plague victims being let in at the behest of the business community that wanted the trade.

                  • weka …
                    15 August 2020 at 1:30 am

                    so the Spanish Flu herd immunity was established by widespread infection, deaths of many leading to a smaller population, who had been infected but survived? Eliminated because this sequence led to an R value of less than 1?

                    • SPC …
                      15 August 2020 at 7:58 am

                      In Europe there were areas – towns and villages that never developed herd immunity because they never had any cases. Quarantines worked then too.

                      There have been flu outbreaks in the 20th C that barely affected some areas of the world – these never developed herd immunity either.

                      Consider the case of Samoa, would people have died of the Spanish h flu if that ship had not arrived?

                      If the world develps herd immunity within 2 years again this time, those areas with effective quarantines for that period have few if any deaths.

                    • McFlock …
                      15 August 2020 at 5:18 pm

                      Many viruses figure out a balance to stay in the human body permanently, establishing a balancing act between not killing the host but not being eliminated by the immune response. Herpes, for example. But by their nature they have to be pretty mild – killing few of their hosts.

                      Covid and Spanish flu aren't like that. From the virus' point of view, they have a ticking clock to spread to someone else before the virus kills the host or their host kills them (i.e. the patient gets better).

                      People who die quickly have less time to spread the virus, so there's an evolutionary bias towards becoming less lethal (more time to spread = more infections of that version).

                      There's also the problem that if you, as a virus, find your siblings and ancestors have already infected most of the people you meet and they got better, then you probably can't pass your descendents on to those people.

                      If every contact with a vulnerable person gives you a 30% chance of infecting them, coming into contact with four people gives you a decent chance of spreading yourself about if nobody has caught it before.

                      If 3 of those 4 caught it before, you've only got a 30% chance of spreading it. Repeat that twice, and your strain probably becomes an evolutionary dead end.

            • PaddyOT 21.1.1.1.1.3
              15 August 2020 at 1:44 am

              The Bubonic Plague (Spanish flu) was a bacterial infection so incomparable to aligning to as yet unknown final behaviours of SARS- CoV- 2, a virus.

              The Spanish flu was an H1N1 influenza -A strain virus which became a pandemic. What happened in the time of this pandemic 1918 to 1920 was that people either developed immunity or died. The Spanish flu virus H1N1 had since been reconstructed for scientific study then these samples destroyed after experimentation.

              So the Spanish flu potentially did not go away nor was herd immunity established as fact.

              H1N1 influenza-A virus strain subtype appeared again as the Swine flu in 2009.

              Influenza A viruses are the only influenza viruses known to cause flu global epidemics of flu disease.

              SARS- CoV-2 is NOT an influenza virus. The SAR acronym being of the type drscribed as
              severe acute respiratory syndrome.
              SARS-CoV(1) emerged in 2002.

              Combating SARS- CoV-2 is an unknown still. Ideally, having a plan economic or otherwise to carry on with life should be the goal now.

              To date only 2 infectious viruses are known to have been potentially eradicated, smallpox and rinderpest.

              https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/qa/1918flupandemic.htmh

              ttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/types.htmhttps://w

              ww.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9/fulltext

              • PaddyOT …
                15 August 2020 at 1:57 am

                Correction to paragraph 1,

                Spanish flu was a virus that had bacterial pneumonia evolve as the cause of deaths.

                https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14458-bacteria-were-the-real-killers-in-1918-flu-pandemic/

                • SPC …
                  15 August 2020 at 7:43 am

                  That does not explain why so many young people died rather than older people – the immune system of healthy adults was triggered – “cytokine storm.

                  Hear of Samoa in relation to Sapanish flu – but for one ship visit they might have had no deaths at all?

                  It is possible to bubble and avoid deaths.

                  During the plague there were villages and towns that had no deaths – they used quarantine and then the plague was gone.

                  As for a plan – both parties have investment programmes to create domestic economy jobs (one focused on more and more roads, one more diverse based on investment in community well being).

              • SPC …
                15 August 2020 at 8:10 am

                Despite no eradication of Spanish flu, it no longer exists. Despite no eradication of plague has anyone in our country ever been infected treated for it?

      • Sabine 21.1.2
        15 August 2020 at 8:23 am

        After the Election, the Government should lead or initiate an inclusive debate about the way forward for NZ, preferably with much input from the public as well as from various experts, not just health experts and business people – we’re in this together.

        The government MUST lead the debate, and should have started a long time ago.

        We had three month during which the government should have led the debate on what to do if he virus re-emerges, how to handle future lock downs, what protections the public can expect etc etc etc.

        Without that open approach from government the void will be filled by conspiracy theories.

        As for the 'we're' all in this together? Now some are really knee deep in the shit, others are happy and able to work from home / or receive their income from investments and thus feel still in control of things. The rest of us however is not in that position. We are the expandable err 'hero' essential worker who is asked to rehire the staff we let go for a bit of cash via the flexi scheme or hey , here a few dollars , why won't you start a business. No we are not all in this together.

        • SPC 21.1.2.1
          15 August 2020 at 9:18 am

          That's not the sort of planning Incognito is suggesting – his is about moving on from the keep it out bubble approach.

          [Either you have a reading comprehension and cognitive problem, which is why you misunderstood me, or you are simply unwilling to understand what I was saying. Either way, you have misinterpreted my words, knowingly or unwittingly. You were making up shit and put words/meanings into my mouth. Point out where I suggested “moving on from the keep it out bubble approach” or retract and apologise – Incognito]

          • Incognito 21.1.2.1.1
            15 August 2020 at 11:32 pm

            See my Moderation note @ 9:18 AM.

            • SPC 21.1.2.1.1.1
              16 August 2020 at 2:57 pm

              If you are not in favour of moving on from our keep it out bubble approach, sure I retract and apologise.

              My impression, that this was your position was based on your wanting government to set a future direction based on a changed world environment and assumption this meant a change from current keep it out and eliminate policy.

              • Incognito …
                16 August 2020 at 11:23 pm

                Thank you for your conditional retraction 😉

                I’d also like to take the opportunity to thank you for your many positive and high quality comments on this site – from one volunteer to another, so to speak.

                For the record, I’m supportive of the current approach at present. However, the current approach has no in-built mechanism for the future – it is kind of a one-trick pony. I think it is important that we plan for the future, especially when a vaccine takes a long (?) time or never arrives. If not plan for anything (different), at least discuss the various options with their associated risks and advantages. Talking doesn’t commit anybody to anything AFAIK.

                Chris Hipkins was saying today that TINA. That might be so, but it is not very inviting to constructive criticism. I find that a little ‘problematic’.

                The Plan B group are holding their Policy Symposium tomorrow. I have criticised them in the past for being pseudo-scientific and their PR has been shit. They have become somewhat of an ‘anti-establishment’ group and that has killed the debate before it got off the ground. It think this is in some ways regrettable, as it is good a good thing when the powers that be are challenged – to keep an open mind is the key to making improvements, when/where possible, and progress in general.

                As you can see, I have a nuanced view of this complex issue but I repeat, I’m not advocating or favouring anything at present.

        • Incognito 21.1.2.2
          15 August 2020 at 11:19 pm

          The Government has either been too busy with dealing with the pandemic or governing in general but is has shied away from this difficult conversation. This has created a vacuum that is now being filled by the Oppos, fringe parties, and conspiracy theorists, which all have an agenda and something to gain by media attention. Conspiracy theories are shooting up like hallucinatory mushrooms for those scared souls who search for solace. The narrative is framed and controlled by those people. For this reason alone, the Government should wrestle back the initiative and lead, but they’re not going to at this side of the Election.

  22. aj 22
    14 August 2020 at 10:01 pm

    That show is almost unwatchable in itself, so shallow, and that's the second time Gorman has been on this week insisting we can't carry on like this and there needs to be a Grand Coalition to make the all decisions in the future. It looked like a total hit job on the Govt. He definitely has an agenda and Barry looked like she is in on it.

    • SPC 22.1
      14 August 2020 at 10:29 pm

      Gorman was on RNZ Friday morning with the same line – parroting Collins. National involved in decision-making before a delayed election. Black swan event coup opportunity mentality.

    • observer 22.2
      14 August 2020 at 11:26 pm

      I don't mind hearing his criticisms, but his solution is unworkable nonsense. Even at the best of times (i.e. not these) a Lab-Nat coalition could not last 5 minutes. And whoever is in government, there has to be an opposition filling the vacuum.

      I'm obviously biased, but the best health strategy is to get the election over, have a functioning government and give them the job for 3 years. Putting that off doesn't solve anything.

  23. Corey Humm 23
    15 August 2020 at 3:52 am

    A grand coalition is a ridiculous idea at this time. Unless the election has to be delayed for a year or two. Anyone suggesting it is to be mocked and derided. We have a govt with a workable majority until November and then from memory a supermajority is needed for just one vote and that is to delay the election (or it's on a week by week basis by an electoral official?)

    Look at Germany right now, a grand coalition would see the likes of act, nzpp and all the Looney tunes parties polling around 10-20% and lab/Nat would probably have to govern together for a few elections until they either become one party like national did with it's predecessors or get replaced by new vehicles, potentially dangerous vehicles.

    Grand coalitions should only ever be called for in times of war when governing parties are split and can't get a majority in their own ranks. Get this tripper off the tv

    I'm not sure of Hillary's politics but she's definitely not a labour voter, she says "they labour party" with a kind of hatred in her tone and an expression that looks like she tasted something foul…. But on the other hand she defended jacinda on social media when mark Richardson asked about her potentially getting pregnant and has been really against all the conspiracy theories going round. Maybe she's apolitical and just doing her job, stranger things have happened

    • Sabine 23.1
      15 August 2020 at 8:01 am

      a grand coalition is always a bad idea, i lived through a few in Germany. Generally they can't get their act together, little gets done, and early election more often then not are called once parties break of for lack of 'confidence'.

      however, that does not mean a grand coalition can not happen.

      And if it will happen here its gonna be the no mates party, the hologram and one of the religious / conservative parties, my bet would be the bishops wife and maybe the new conservatives.

      i can not see a labour/national coalition as the parties are too far apart and not even saving the country would bring them together to that point. We would need a different set of people in the no mates party.