Daily Review 16/04/2018
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5:36 pm, April 16th, 2018 - 84 comments
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- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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TV one poll out tonight. The commentary is pretty appalling. Modest movements in support and given a shock horror treatment. Labour-Green-NZ still well ahead and better than they were on election night.
Do you write suspense novels in your spare time, MS?
https://twitter.com/bryce_edwards/status/985760429963001857/photo/1
Labour down 5 to 43%
Nats up 1 to 44%
Greens up 1 to 6%
NZF up 2 to 5%
So 54-44.
Good news.
Thanks Carolyn Nth. Had been offline for some hours, having feed to menagerie, sat down to eat leftover fish curry (very mild, but second night full of deliciousness),came back online and wham!
Swordfish and I had a little discussion about polls today on OM at 5. 3 today, so looking forward to swordfish’s views on the results.
Hoping that Matthew Whitehead writes a commentary on it – his (and indeed swordfishes) comments are better than you get on other blogs or indeed the media.
Agreed James, both do excellent work.
YEs, james, swordfish commentaries are excellent and give lots of marks to Matthew Whitehead also – except that Matthew Whitehead dreams of NZF no longer existing, and his last poll commentary was done with no mention of NZF, or taking of NZF into account.
I have been watching NZF closely for some years, and they/Peters have been renewing NZF under the radar since the loss in 2008. It is no longer a party with membership mainly in the older generations (like myself! not that I am a member) but has a lot of much younger members, including on their Board (hence the attempts to protect their Board members’ identities during the coalition negotiations).
The successor to Peters has been chosen some time ago – Fletcher Tabateau – and been groomed for years. Now Deputy Leader and Under Secretary to both Peters as Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Jones, as Minister for Regional Development.
Their position as a full Coalition partner in the current Government (as opposed to a C and S support party) is giving them prominence and air to get government experience and media coverage. IMO Tracey Martin is proving an excellent Minister for example. Cannot exactly say the same for Mark, and Jones is still an unknown quality … IMHO. But the relationship between Peters and Ardern seems an excellent one despite the age etc difference. There seems to be respect on both sides, and say what you will, Peters has good gut feelings for foreign relations, and experience.
And you do realise that 6 of their 9 MPs have Maori lineage – the highest percentage of any current political party?
Stir, stir, stir …
When were Labour on 48???
February
15 April 2015
15 April 2015
Nat 49
Lab 31
GP 9
NZF 7
In the last One News Colmar Brunton Poll in early Feb 2018, Labour (on its own) topped National at 48% (with National on 43%).
I found this useful Wikipedia page a few months ago, and bookmarked it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
I see they have already updated it with today’s poll announcements.
Looks like Seymour needs that dancing experience as an alternative career option.
The most comparable poll was the one that was at the comparable point in National’s first term. The nearest to this one would be the Colmar/Brunton TV1 poll of 5 April 2009.
At that Poll National were on 57%. That was 12% above their 2008 election result. Labour were on 31%. That was 3% below the 2008 election.
Now we have National still on the 2017 election number. Labour are up 6% from the election.
I don’t think the Labour Party MPs, and the organisation are going to be happy chappies this evening.
Better than they deserve though.
lmao, the commentary…. this bit….. ‘get’s the prize for the biggest party’… what’s the prize Jessica? Is it a trophy? Lmfao
Yes Mickey this was a mischievous effort to tarnish the new Government by TV one alright, l think it stunk of negativity when the total was better than it was on election night.
What irked me was that just two weeks ago national were saying the next poll would find Labour and NZF sink and shock the country.
Dont they wish.
NZ First was still at 5% not at record 2 or 3% as national believed they would be by now.
Not a bad poll by all accounts when you consider the Media have been hard hitting labour for weeks now.
Do you have any evidence at all for your claim about NZ1?
“not at record 2 or 3% as national believed they would be by now”.
Who in the National Party or its organisation ever said this?
Could it be just a product of your imagination?
Its called making shit up Alwyn
I should simply remember that c**g** is never going to answer simple questions such as this.
You are absolutely right. His comments are best described as “making shit up”.
Yeah, but the bit I liked was, The Jacinda and the Labour honeymoon is over.
Labour DOWN a Massive 5%
Most popular leader Ardern on 35%
No bridges Bridges 10%
Greens up 2%
NZF up 2%
But National has definitely got them on the ropes with an increase of 1% and no bridges Bridges on 10%
Terrible, definitely the end of the coalition
It is about time the right wing shit at TVNZ was sorted.
@Halfcrown
Its fairly obvious the electorate is now split down the middle an almost even 50/50.
The propaganda battles have been won so far by the blue 50%. The only way the “shit” will be sorted, short of a bloody revolution, is time. It will appear to move at glacial speed but that is the way it goes. He who pays the piper calls the tune and the piper has lots of resources, power, and influence in the media.
The show has only started.
It is going to get heavier.
At this stage of the electoral cycle you’d expect labour to be souring in the polls; especially considering the Ardern effect (although I note that more of the star dust has fallen from her with her poll ratings also falling).
This all has to be a concern I would have thought..
souring or soaring?
Why would Labour be concerned about having its support parties in a stronger position. National has no support parties of any relevance and they can get up to 49% and could still never be the govt. That is the reality of MMP, something the blue side is struggling with. The “drag race” meme between Labour & National is being constantly put about at the moment in the lead up to the Northcote by-election. Its a safe seat for National, but they will crow via the media about the result as a significant win for Simon Bridges and National. If Labour are to make history and to win the seat of Northcote from the National opposition then we will be witnessing a seismic movement in NZ politics.
is that a reply to someone else?
Grantoc
Not too bad.
There is no drift to National and Bridges has not been endorsed as PM in waiting.
Where the coalition would like to be is where Labour is around 45%, and NZF and Greens are both 5%+ (Greens did their best polling 2011 and 2014 but do not do so well when Labour is governing/strong).
Quite close, and they would plan for the budget to deliver that.
Hope you did not take my ‘suspense novels’ comment the wrong way MS. Was meant in a humorous sense, not a critical one. Sorry I did not make that clear.
I think the results are pretty good really all things considered. It just really annoys me that some of the media still treat the Nats and Labour results as if it was still a FPP environment.
They are simply being realistic.
There won’t be any Green or New Zealand First members in the Parliament after the next election. With the shambles the CoL is in they haven’t got a hope in hell of getting above the 5% level.
No loss of course. Perhaps after that the loony left will stop pretending they are interested in Green matters and we can get a proper Green alternative taking back the name.
the disgrace continues……Minister Woods has her work cut out
https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018640918/christchurch-quake-claimants-to-go-on-hunger-strike
Will national wait until they lose the 2020 election to select a new leader?
Current leader simons 10% is a shocking first result for the new leader of a large party.
Where as labour dropping over 10% 6 months into government is an outstanding result?
Yeah yeah I know margins of error etc.
Sorry that should be 10% since the last poll.
James don’t tell lies, Labour has fallen by only 5% since the last poll, most points of which were picked up by their coalition partners.
100% Cinny. 5+0 = 5
Meaning that the dropping 5 % from 48% is over a 10% drop.
But I can see how my post was read.
sorry, what? How is that a ten percent drop?
10% of 48 is 4.8
yeah. When SPC put that together for myself and the others who thought you were talking about percentages rather than percentages of percentages, I thought it was pretty cute.
I can’t wait to see how a 5% drop for the nats gets minimised as 2.5% drop of something else, lol
Where are you getting your 10% from James?
10% of 48% is 4.8%.
^ that
lololol… face palms…I see what you did there.
You may want to let ‘stuff’ know James….
“Labour has dropped 5 per cent, to 43 per cent in the latest TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/103149694/national-takes-over-labour-in-tvnz-poll
Both are correct in the context given (although I presented it poorly)
NZF will definitely get 10-15% in the next Election especially if they put Fletcher Tabuteau as Leader ?
LOL
So by using this calculation method the Greens are up by 20% (Go Marama!) and NZF are up by 66% (Winnie you beauty!).
These are totally stellar increases!
James – you are scraping the bottom of the barrel so hard your fingernails are bleeding….
You know that it’s just math right – hardly scraping the barrel.
And both your comments are true – but obviously when they have so little vote every little bit becomes a big % increase.
I guess you don’t have a job that uses numbers much.
James above – reply button is gone.
Indeed I do know it is just simple maths and thanks for confirming the mendacious absurdity of your choice of that particular measurement – the percentage of a percentage.
As for my job, you guess wrong
hah
cute
5/48 x 100/1 = 500 divided by 48 = 10.41%
48 is not 100% but half of that.
See SPC below.
Can Slick survive jimbo?
For the meantime gobby yes.
Uggh? Labour scored 38% at the last election. They are now on 44%. That’s up 6% from 6 mths ago. And that’s despite Clare Curran and one or two other ministerial mishaps.
Can I suggest you look at how National did at the same time after the 2008 election. I don’t think you will be nearly so pleased. The honeymoon, if it ever happened, is over.
By the way I think you will find the numbers were 37% and 43%. Same 6% difference but Labour are now back behind National.
I hear a faint whining from the distant bitterness of Anderson’s Bay. But I am not worried – because the Coalition of the Civilised (COC for short) is in power and in no danger. Even COC’s occasional cockups matter not at his point.
Robin Westenra reports.
“Filmed by Dima Aboud in Spain. Roger Waters exposes NATO-member-state White Helmets as a multi million dollar funded propaganda construct for terrorist factions inside Syria.”
His name is Robin not Robert. A very old friend and ex neighbour of mine (as is his partner, Pam). Kia kaha Robin and Pam.
Sorry – typo.
I have the most respect for him.
His blog seemorerocks is an inspiration.
Something we can finally agree on, Ed.
Mind you he and I have had some ‘hot’ discussions – bang, sparks, thunder, you name it LOL – but which I miss as we are only fleetingly in contact these days.
And we always ended up respecting one another and our differences – and our rights in a democracy to have these differences and express them.
I think you like find we agree on a lot.
I agree with a lot that Robin posts.
I often don’t, but I love and respect him as a friend and I know it is mutual! LOL.
And that is how life should be – not this awful negativity and lack of respect for others’ views and beliefs – or trying to continually convert others to our beliefs.
But pleased we are talking, Ed. That is a big start.
I agree, Ed you need to put as much effort in understanding and researching the other point of view, not simply daily looking for information or links to back your belief or idealogy and bombarding us accordingly You obviously have time on your hands so if you did synthesise competing views it would result in a much more interesting and rounded Ed🤤
Ed may have already researched the other side and decided it’s not worth much. I tend to think Ed is correct most of the time.
Let’s all be nice, whilst people are sleeping in cars, kids are getting communicable diseases, and women are getting beaten or worse.
Let’s all sing Kumbaya and smell flowers.
But most of all, let’s not point out we have an economic system which is based on exploitation and violence. Make sure you don’t get angry about that because the liberals will get all passive aggressive on your working class ass.
righteous anger is all well and good, even a valuable source of energy at times.
But nobody has to be a dick about it.
I saw Roger Waters play in Auckland this year. Loved the show, love Waters, love Pink Floyd….
But sorry – swallowing that shit about the White Helmets is a step too far. When you have swallowed the Russian and Iranian line you are beyond bullshit.
But it isn’t the USA so you know, you must be right
Has minister David Clark been telling porkies?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/103133209/health-minister-and-dhb-clash-over-middlemore-hospital-building-issues
Hope not jimbo, last thing we need is another Cabinet stocked with pathological liars.
‘There’, Big Joolee, ‘there’. Is there no end.
Shit who would have thought Porirua would see a large jump in rent costs now.
Hope Napier is next.
http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=108674
Rental prices rise 17% in Hutt Valley, 11% in Porirua
April 16, 2018
Press Release – NZ Property Investors Federation
Just released March rental statistics show that New Zealand rental prices have continued to grow over the past year.
Hutt Valley had the largest increase at 17.1% to $413pw. However this area can be quite volatile due to low numbers of new rentals. Porirua was next with an 11.6% increase to $407pw, although Porirua statistics can also be quite volatile. Wellington Central rents increased by 6.8% showing that the region overall had the highest rental price increases.
And this is good for:
A – Landlords?
B. People on low and/or fixed incomes?
And why do you hope that Napier will be next?
Do you own rental property there?
Good video at (4)
That gives food for thought thanks Ed 100%
+1
Thank you.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/04/16/104977/benedict-tompkins
Fighting words directed at the Law Commission’s decision to investigate Catriona MacLennan.
Salaried Medical Professionals are worried about the US rejoining the xxTPPA.
Keiser Report quote for today is “we are a hospital masquerading as a nation”, a comment on how out of control health costs are in the US.
Certainly their is much to worry about in particular I think of the mandatory vaccination but possible restrictions of medicine choice and widespread attacks on alternative treatment run a close 2nd/3rd.
Gordon Campbell hits the mark again
http://werewolf.co.nz/2018/04/gordon-campbell-on-the-prevailing-media-narratives-about-the-labour-led-coalition/
If this government continues to do the job it was elected to do and dosnt pay too much heed to the corporate media narrative (as the majority of the public did years ago) then we can expect them to be returned to continue.
The “corporate media narrative” pretty much tracks the vote share, which, as we saw in the poll released today, has dipped.
This dip occurs despite, as Gordon Campbell points, out, this government living up to its campaign promises.
Gordon Campbell wonders why they aren’t getting the praise for delivering so soundly; surely the righteous will be blessed?
That sentiment is pretty typical of analysts who are blinded by the virtue of their policies and aren’t accounting for the political damage of Ministerial and Prime Ministerial fumbling, stumbling, poor communications, poor forecasting, and walking backwards.
This lot have three weeks to get their shit together before budget day.
Another 5% loss at the polls will look an outstanding result if they fuck that one up.
you deign them 3 whole weeks?….such agitation has the appearance of a terminal diagnosis….and not for the government.
Govt’s vote share went from 56 to 54% in a single poll with a larger margin of error than that difference. Big deal.
I would suggest with Labour that as very & exceptionally well served as it is by Jacinda, that is not enough and will wear thinner and thinner – particularly with contentious extremist policies and approaches to the average NZer ( the fuel tax and presentation of terms with the recent energy ideology policy). – Not that the last nine years wasn’t full of such like but those times saw issues differently –
Ardern should more be saved for the last 12 months of the term & Labour should stand on it’s own feet more. Also gender equality to their ranks, NOT as feminist statement but as different managerial style would be popular for them too i would imagine if able to be handled well.
life goes on!
This is the level of bias and false premises that Australians ( and us, through the Herald) read in their media.
“Donald Trump declared “mission accomplished” on Twitter following strikes on Syria’s chemical weapons plants, but the attack has failed to dampen Bashar al-Assad’s ardour for slaughtering his people.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12033634
Bus strikes in Auckland from tomorrow: https://workersfirst.nz/2018/04/16/bus-drivers-to-strike-across-auckland-this-week-over-cuts-to-overtime-and-broken-shifts/
All those people who believed the Green and Labour fairy stories about how Public Transport is so wonderful and people can dispose of their cars are going to be pissed off.
Walk to work fellas and don’t forget to give a one-fingered wave to the Cabinet Ministers as they flash past in their tax-payer provided luxury limousines on their way to the airport.
Bring on the AVs and people will be able to travel where they want to go when they choose.