Daily review 21/09/2021

59 comments on “Daily review 21/09/2021 ”

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1. roblogic 1

   21 September 2021 at 5:40 pm

   First thing tomorrow I'm off to my fave cafe, just up the road, for an Italian coffee. L3 life is a lot more liveable. I will see my closest whanau whom I have missed terribly for the last few weeks! Thanks to Jacinda and all the diligent workers in the underfunded health system. Praying that we can keep a lid on this thing. Down to 13 cases today, all but 1 have links traced. We can still do this.
   • Tiger Mountain 1.1

     21 September 2021 at 5:48 pm

     Lets hope so. There has been an insidious and relentless campaign to undermine what the Govt. has achieved with putting public health before private profit for all these months.

     NZ Nats and ACT would have opened the borders back in 2020! And with the tap turned off on migrant labour, overseas students and fly in tourism, there is now lower unemployment and upward pressure on wages…
     • alwyn 1.1.1

       21 September 2021 at 6:53 pm

       "NZ Nats (and ACT) would have opened the borders back in 2020.

       What evidence do you have for this claim?
       • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 1.1.1.1

         21 September 2021 at 7:36 pm

         There is obviously no direct evidence because, thank the lord, the Natz and Act are not in power.

         By inference, we can look overseas at what rightwing fuckwits are doing, like Boris and Scotty, and at Judith's absolute disregard for covid rules here in Dunedin and Queenstown.

         There can be little doubt (to a thinking person) that the Natz and Act would have put business ahead of health with NSW type lockdown lite!
         • Ella 1.1.1.1.1

           21 September 2021 at 7:41 pm

           Right wing fuckwits are doing … like Scotty

           You mean the Scotty who plans to open the border toward the end of the year like Jacinda? So by your measure we have a left wing fuckwit as head of NZ.
           • Gezza 1.1.1.1.1.1

             21 September 2021 at 7:54 pm

             That doesn’t follow. ScoMo can already be a right wing fuckwit for reasons other than any border decision he might make.

             Just saying.
             • Ella …

               21 September 2021 at 7:56 pm

               Gotcha. It’s the ‘ol it’s different when the left do it defence.
               • Gezza …

                 21 September 2021 at 7:59 pm

                 Maybe. Not my defence though. I'm not left.
           • Gypsy 1.1.1.1.1.2

             21 September 2021 at 8:05 pm

             And the lockdown's in some (if not all?) of the states in Australia were very similar to ours.
             • Tony Veitch (not etc.) …

               21 September 2021 at 8:24 pm

               Of course. As that darling of the right so aptly put it:

               "Berejiklian is Australia's most successful premier. Her state is the best economic performer, she is popular, and she has led far and away Australia's most successful COVID response." Mike Hoskings.
               • Gypsy …

                 22 September 2021 at 9:53 am

                 He may have been right on the day he made the comments. But we all know that can change so quickly. Today's rooster becomes tomorrow's feather duster.
               • Macro …

                 22 September 2021 at 4:22 pm

                 Mike Hosking is spouting absolute bullshit here as any cursory perusal of the economic indicators by state for Australia will show. The best performing state far is WA which despite the fact that the loss of a major portion of its mining income it has diversified in other areas. Allied to the fact that it has kept Covid at bay. It's very difficult to get into WA even for aussies. But that narrative doesn't fit Hosking's mantra as the State Premier is Labor.
             • McFlock …

               21 September 2021 at 9:47 pm

               And the lockdown's in some (if not all?) of the states in Australia were very similar to ours.

               Bullshit. In 2020, the only state that came anywhere close to NZ's level 4 stringency (96% by the Oxford index ) was Victoria.
               • Gypsy …

                 22 September 2021 at 9:31 am

                 You might want to read my comment again, and then look at the way the data is represented in the website you referred to. You also might want to compare the Australian and NZ responses and you'll see that the NZ response was more stringent in the first lockdown, but less so in the second.
                 • McFlock …

                   22 September 2021 at 2:31 pm

                   Aus collectively is not the sum of its parts, but I think the main disagreement is what is referred to as a "lockdown".

                   L4, according to the implementation critera ("At Alert Level 4, the virus is not contained and there is sustained and intensive community transmission"). 96%. Not bloody hairdressers.

                   If their idea of a lockdown when they have sustained and intensive community transmission is to do what we do at level 3 or less ("there is medium risk of community transmission with active, but managed, clusters"), then no, their lockdowns aren't similar to ours.
                   • Gypsy …

                     22 September 2021 at 3:19 pm

                     Thanks, yes I see where you're coming from. Let me have a look at the links.
                   • McFlock …

                     22 September 2021 at 3:46 pm

                     Yesterday NSW had 1,000 new cases, >800 of which had an unknown source. In a population of 8 million.

                     We'd invent a level 5 for that.
                     These are the current restrictions in Sydney. Note the businesses able to be open, including:

                     • garden centres
                     • delicatessens
                     • mobile phone repair shops
                     • landscaping supplies stores
                   • Gypsy …

                     22 September 2021 at 5:13 pm

                     "Yesterday NSW had 1,000 new cases, >800 of which had an unknown source. In a population of 8 million."

                     That's clickbait. There are 21 countries with lower cases per head of population and 20 countries with less deaths. Now you could argue that comparing NZ with e.g. the Vatican or Samoa may not be helpful, just as comparing NZ and Australia may not be. For example, "population density is an effective predictor of cumulative infection cases in the U.S. at the county level". Our largest city (Auckland) is behind both Sydney and Melbourne in population density. 42% of Australia's population live in Melbourne or Sydney. 34% of NZ's population live in Auckland.

                     Both transtasman cousins have made mistakes. We were both slow out of the blocks with our vaccination programs, and we've both had problems with MIQ, (although our is twice as likely to leak than Australia's.

                     Around 6 in every 10,000 people have died from Covid. Around 300 in every 10,000 have contracted it. Those numbers will be dropping significantly with increased levels of vaccination, testing and improved medical approaches. After 90 years of vaccinations, around 900 in every 10,000 people still contract influenza annually. Thankfully less than 1 in every 10,000 die.

                     What we have achieved so far is to avoid exponential growth in cases, which is a worthwhile achievement and no doubt saved lives.
                   • McFlock …

                     22 September 2021 at 5:26 pm

                     What do you think NZ would do if we were even at 100 cases a day?

                     Leave bunnings open to walk-in customers?
                   • Gypsy …

                     23 September 2021 at 10:14 am

                     "What do you think NZ would do if we were even at 100 cases a day?"

                     That depends on their symptoms and vaccination status. 1 in 4 NZ'ers catch the flu every year, but only 20% have symptoms. That's still a hell of a lot more than 100 per day Covid sufferers. If most of the 100 were vaccinated, they most likely won't require hospitalisation. In fact only around 1% of people fully vaccinated require hospitalisation. The real risk is our comparatively low number of ICU beds, but that shouldn't be an issue we get our vac rate up.

                     "Leave bunnings open to walk-in customers?"

                     Given what I've seen and experienced at a mass vaccination and testing sites, I'd rather be in bunnings.
                   • McFlock …

                     23 September 2021 at 2:46 pm

                     heck of a dodge to the question.

                     Let me be more precise: if NZ was getting 100 new cases a day of the same pattern and outcomes as the cases currently facing NSW (including a covid death say every week or so), do you think we would keep Bunnings open to the public even in the most severely affected areas?
       • Pete 1.1.1.2

         21 September 2021 at 8:13 pm

         There is no evidence except the constant chorus since February last year that everything that was being done was wrong.

         They would have had the same Director General of Health and his personnel and the same pool of epidemiologists to get expert advice from.

         But there wouldn't have been lockdowns, they were the wrong strategy. We heard it every day. There wouldn't have been closed borders, they were stopping economic activity. We heard that every day. Anyone who wanted to come in would have been allowed, immediately.

         If it was thought there needed to be some sort of quarantine or isolation system there would have been no breaches.

         Everyone would have been fully jabbed many months ago. At least 95% anyway, there is no reason why that couldn't have been achieved, we hear that implication just about every day.

         You might think I make my assumptions based on the ongoing genius over 19 months from the likes of Michael Woodhouse, Judith Collins and Chris Bishop. You'd be partially right but of course the guru, Mike Hosking and the intellectual bank that is Kiwiblog have informed me and indicated the tragedy of the wrong crowd being in power.
         • Gezza 1.1.1.2.1

           21 September 2021 at 9:00 pm

           https://i.imgflip.com/5npp5k.jpg

           Hoskings' incredible intellectual genius comes from criticising the govt for the exact opposite thing one day from the next, when convenient. One assumes some of his most ardent ardent fans have 24 hour memory problems.
       • joe90 1.1.1.3

         21 September 2021 at 8:31 pm

         What evidence do you have for this claim?

         I have little doubt they would've busted their chops to open up had they won in 2020.

         Monday, 29 June 2020

         NZ should open borders to countries with Covid – Muller

         […]

         "They can't manage the current border situation at all. The last two weeks has been shambolic and I am making it very clear that a shambolic internal border and a strategy that we stay completely closed to everybody for the next 12 to 18 months is untenable.

         https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/nz-should-open-borders-countries-covid-muller
       • Tiger Mountain 1.1.1.4

         22 September 2021 at 7:45 am

         There is a staggering amount of Mass Media content from 2020 to refer to from National/ACT, and business lobbying from horticulture to service to education to tourism. If I ever hear Michael Barnett again it will be too soon.

         Right wing media commenters from Hosking on up joined in the call to “open up the economy”. They were calling for reinstatement of foreign student numbers and migrant worker numbers, and early travel bubbles with Australia and parts of the Pacific.

         The vacillation was remarkable too, as Micky Savage wrote here about National criticising the Govt. for moving too fast, then moving too slow on various aspects of the first COVID outbreak. Fortunately National /ACT were not the Govt. And the voters made clear in the General Election who they did want!
     • AB 1.1.2

       21 September 2021 at 7:26 pm

       "There has been an insidious and relentless campaign…"

       Spot on. The objective of this negative campaign is to retrospectively discredit everything that has been done. The objective is not simply to make the obvious point – that if we cannot drive Delta down to zero we'll have to pivot into a somewhat different approach.
2. Patricia Bremner 2

   21 September 2021 at 6:33 pm

   79% first jab in Auckland!!!! Yay Go Auckland.. Show the way.
3. joe90 3

   21 September 2021 at 7:04 pm

   Thread on why it's important that James Shaw and negotiators attend COP26 in person.

   https://twitter.com/Davidxvx/status/1440084193334149122

   https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1440084193334149122.html
4. bwaghorn 4

   21 September 2021 at 7:08 pm

   https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/agribusiness/view/pest-numbers-on-the-rise

   Top quality sustainable, organic protein being killed and left to rot, it's just bloody nuts I tell ya.
   • weka 4.1

     21 September 2021 at 7:47 pm

     I really don't understand NZ sometimes. Resource meet resource gatherers, seems pretty straight forward to organise.

     Has export wild venison stopped because of the pandemic? Not that I think export is the best use, better to feed kiwis first.
   • Ad 4.2

     21 September 2021 at 7:56 pm

     That's the same hunting fraternity that took the Minister of Conservation to the High Court and generated major protests, just to keep the deer numbers up.

     No sympathy for them.
     • Stuart Munro 4.2.1

       21 September 2021 at 8:07 pm

       When a minister is raining poison on our forests like some toxic Bomber Harris, they ought to be in court. Or prison.
       • Ad 4.2.1.1

         21 September 2021 at 8:15 pm

         If the farmers and hunters can find a way to blame the government for an annual increase of 10-12% in the wild deer herd after they actively sought to stop the government from bringing it under control, they have taken leave of their senses.
         • weka 4.2.1.1.1

           21 September 2021 at 9:59 pm

           the government controls the conservation estate, so let's share the blame around.
           • Ad 4.2.1.1.1.1

             21 September 2021 at 10:10 pm

             Illegal release of deer by hunters:

             https://www.doc.govt.nz/news/media-releases/2017/doc-condemns-illegal-release-of-deer-and-vandalism/

             Control of DoC deer cull by High Court action taken by hunters:

             https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/122093650/doc-told-to-reconsider-tahr-cull-programme

             Recreational hunters take DoC to High Court and stop helicopter culling of deer:

             https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/recreational-hunters-win-court-battle-with-doc/5QPBQ5LUSXHC3BCULACI3NZUVQ/

             And what happens to these deer numbers when DoC are prevented from doing their job?

             https://www.stuff.co.nz/science/120839374/coronavirus-what-happens-to-deer-populations-if-they-arent-hunted

             The answer is that deer numbers explode all over the country:

             https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/hutt-valley-residents-fed-up-deer-invaders

             So no, the blame for deer numbers exploding is on the hunting comunity.
             • Stuart Munro …

               21 September 2021 at 11:04 pm

               Well, you know how you stop killing everything that walks, flies, or squats in the mud? You use bait stations. You know who taught us that, at length? DoC. But suddenly they don't need no stinking bait stations – 1080 is somehow ineffable.

               Poisoning deer? Are deer predators then, under the endless redefinition DoC uses to avoid responsibility for their failures? Because they're not, not in this world.

               And just what is all this 1080 for? Is it to kill possums, the thin edge of the wedge that got the poison over the threshold? Because stomach content surveys do not support the contention that they are significant predators. https://newzealandecology.org/nzje/2207.pdf

               Or is it to kill rats – a folly of Hamelinian proportions – because the combination of a rapid breeding cycle and bait avoidance means that one cannot simply poison rats out of any significant area (and if one doesn't use bait stations the collateral kills are substantial too, even if you cleverly don't record them).

               The simple fact is that DoC has been lying to us, using these tools irresponsibly, and has overidden public concerns instead of responding to them.

               DoC may want to poison deer – but their mandate to do so is very limited. They don't eat birds. They are not a reviled species like rats. In inaccessible parts of Fiordland, it may be on (given some intelligent procedures to prevent mass killing of kea and the like) but that's not what they've been doing.

               I can understand their urgent desire to blame hunters. Just as Fish and Game fought the good fight against dirty dairy before most punters knew there was one, hunters notice all the carcasses, and bring them to the attention of the public, who, oddly enough, are not down with mass poisoning campaigns absent a bloody good reason. And there ain't one.
               • francesca …

                 22 September 2021 at 8:57 am

                 Isn't the problem with deer, goats, possums etc that they browse on the vegetation, to the point of death in the case of possums, whereas the ruminants destroy seedlings and regrowth.If that doesn't impact on the bird population I don't know what does.Birds need the forest for food and shelter , and the forest needs birds for seed distribution .

                 Talk of possums not being predators seems like wilful red herring deflection
                 • Stuart Munro …

                   22 September 2021 at 7:30 pm

                   It really depends who is telling the story.

                   It's true that heavy possum populations can browse heavily, and it is probably in such circumstances that the odd one goes omnivorous and eats the odd egg or chick.

                   But much of the impetus behind local use of1080 is the coveted "TB Free" status, that would bowl over one of the non-tariff trade barriers into the EU. Prior to Key's buyoff of DoC, the Animal Health Board was the biggest user – so it was never about birds or conservation at all.
     • bwaghorn 4.2.2

       21 September 2021 at 9:33 pm

       Hopefully theres some more grownup people in politics than you who can see that 2 or more birds can killed with one stone.

       Quality food ,pest control , protection biodiversity
       • Ad 4.2.2.1

         21 September 2021 at 10:16 pm

         Hunters have organised around self interest and are getting it served back to them.

         They have generated sustained court action, illegal pest releases, no effective pest control, no biodiversity protection… and still they complain.

         It was all just money.
   • Graeme 4.3

     21 September 2021 at 8:11 pm

     And directly below that item is one that outlines the problem

     https://farmersweekly.co.nz/section/agribusiness/view/frustrations-mount-as-venison-challenges-grow

     In 2018 venison hit a record high at $12/kg, covid hit and it slumped to $5 last year, with current contracts at $7.40.

     …..

     The stark reality by comparison is the mutton price is currently higher than venison and lamb at a record $9.35 has surged stronger than ever.

     Venison industry marketed into the restaurant trade exclusively and forgot the consumer end. Along comes covid and ooops. Hopefully that gets turned around pretty quickly and venison, both wild and farmed, is seen as a healthy and tasty alternative to beef and mutton.

     With wild recovery there's plenty of demand, it's just getting the economics to stack up. The place I'm working on has plenty of potential victims but getting the numbers to stack up for helicopter recovery is hard. We've sent a few truck loads off live after they were tempted to wander into a paddock, but that's not a precise science.
     • Ad 4.3.1

       21 September 2021 at 8:27 pm

       Are you some broad rural multitasker? I thought you were running a gallery in Queenstown?
       • Graeme 4.3.1.1

         21 September 2021 at 8:41 pm

         Partner's running the gallery on her own post covid, I've always had a rural sideline fencing and water supplies, which has got a lot bigger now. The things you do to pay the rent. Keeping the old bugger pretty fit though.
         • Ad 4.3.1.1.1

           21 September 2021 at 8:59 pm

           Fencing OMG serious actual work.
     • bwaghorn 4.3.2

       21 September 2021 at 9:39 pm

       I used to sell the odd deer that was thick enough to hang round long enough for me to get it .

       I have been led to believe thst 1080 being picked up in wild venison in the German market is what killed the wild trade,

       Shot by a idiot chopper pilot who poached a 1080 block

       That being said there's that many out here now that choppers wouldnt be needed for alot of recovery and there nothing wrong with feeding kiwis families with it.

       Guy up the road was recovering them for $1.50 for a pet food outfit last year.

       Jobs Jobs jobs.
5. aj 5

   21 September 2021 at 8:00 pm

   Te Anau thinking of daylight saving 365 days of the year. In midwinter sunrise wouldn't be until about 9:40am, meaning for many weeks kids will be going to school in complete darkness.

   I don't think they have thought is through.
   • Gezza 5.1

     21 September 2021 at 8:09 pm

     I don't think they have thought it through.

     The main operating range for Lake Te Anau (as defined by the Lake Level Guidelines 2002) is between 201.5 and 202.7 metres above sea level.

     Could it be cos of insufficient oxygen at that altitude, do you think?
     • Graeme 5.1.1

       21 September 2021 at 9:09 pm

       Not the altitude, we're 100 – 200m higher than them in Whakatipu and can see straight through that malarkey. Strange things go through the minds of towns that sold their souls to the coach tour industry and their commissions.

       Daylight saving gets quite extreme down there as they are so far west of the rest of the country, at longest day it's still daylight well after 10pm. In the days of 10pm closing holiday makers found it odd being chucked out of the pub and it was still daylight.
6. Reality 6

   21 September 2021 at 8:08 pm

   Alwyn asks what evidence is there National and Act would have opened the borders in 2020. I remember all too well they were repeatedly jumping up and down for the borders to open back in 2020. Likewise the universities jumping up and down about bringing in thousands of foreign students (which for some time now they have kept quiet about that).

   However National and Act then shut up about the borders opening when the seriousness of Covid's spread finally sank in.
   • Ella 6.1

     21 September 2021 at 8:16 pm

     Who opened the borders

     (a) Act

     (b) National

     (c) the Labour government?
     • observer 6.1.1

       21 September 2021 at 8:29 pm

       I hope primary schools can reopen soon. Some kids need to be offline and back on the playground swings.
       • Gezza 6.1.1.1

         21 September 2021 at 9:11 pm

         😄

         Took me a few seconds to get that. Long day. Need a coffee. ☕️
7. Ad 7

   21 September 2021 at 8:23 pm

   If France manages to stop the EU-Australia trade deal in retaliation for Australia stopping the French submarine deal and going off to the United States and UK, we will get an appropriate diplomatic cost to Australia's astonishingly dumb move.

   This AUKUS deal is far more about commerce than it is about defence.

   $90billion is a seriously big deal to lose for DCNS .

   https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/21/aukus-row-european-union-demands-apology-from-australia-over-frances-treatment-before-trade-talks

   DCNS is owned by the French state and Thales, which are almost indistinguishable.

   So this isn't a Fuck You to some tin-arsed welders; it's a raised middle finger to Patrice Caine one of the most powerful men in Europe and to Emmanuel Macron's face.

   If the trade deal talks really are stopped it will be worth doing a post on all by itself.
   • Graeme 7.1

     21 September 2021 at 9:29 pm

     And Boris and co were complicit all the way, at Morrison's request. Quite willingly it seems.

     https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/like-a-scene-from-le-carre-how-the-nuclear-submarine-pact-was-no10s-biggest-secret-dj7z5f8bh
     • Ad 7.1.1

       21 September 2021 at 9:37 pm

       Biden, Morrison and Johnson re just going to look like assholes at the UN Plenary this week. They are going to get criticised by friend and foe alike for this new arrangement, which makes friends of three while freezing out dozens of long term allies. They deserve what they are about to get in the diplomatic world.
8. Scud 8

   22 September 2021 at 12:15 am

   Ad,

   The major issue with the DCNS Sub deal, it started out at $50B Oz when French won the tender & in the space of a few yrs had climbed to $90B with SFA to show for itself as the French were dragging the chain on a number gateways as stipulated in the contract when they won the tender.

   When the price of the Sub contract kept on climbing, there was amount of pressure from within Government, to Defence, Treasury & us Ozzie Taxpayers (which does include me) to pull the pin on the Sub Deal.

   I still believe had we gone for the German U Boat or if the Swedish were allowed to tender for the Sub Project with theirs Son of Collins Sub, then we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

   Even to us punters the street knew the French Deal didn’t pass the pub test & I mean who the bloody hell takes a Nuclear Attack Sub design with a Nuclear Rector & replace it a diesel electric? Heck even if you did the sums of weight vs mass vs drag/ friction between the two you knew you were going to have some big engineering issues & that’s before we even talk about the untried technology of the pump jet propulsion system.

   My IPad still doesn’t like using the Standard Blog Comments Section. & thence I’m not commenting here often theses days.
   • RedLogix 8.1

     22 September 2021 at 2:44 am

     I've also heard that it was not just a single contract that was to proceed for decades without the Australian govt having the option to cut out of the deal at various stages, it's just they've pulled the trigger on an obviously underperforming contract long before the French expected them to. I have a reasonably close workmate here who served as an officer on the Collins and his concise view of the French contract was "Fucked".

     Also what is being missed is that this deal is less about the headline subs and more about the 'technology sharing' and 'defense alliance'. It's my sense there is a lot more under the hood on this deal than is obvious at present.

     What for instance if Australia was to get it's own Tomahawk cruise missiles?
     • Scud 8.1.1

       22 September 2021 at 12:29 pm

       Bingo it works Roblogic, your are a champion mate.

       I was following the French Subs via FOI, Senate questioning IRT to the French Subs & in some Navy focus magazines that I buy, I came to the conclusion fairly quickly that the French & DCNS were trying to pull the wool over the eyes of everyone including us poor suffering Taxpayer

       It was interesting to note on Twitter last Thursday, no sooner had the announcement had been made that Oz was ditching the French Subs for Nuclear Powered Attack Subs. That the 1st Tranche of Tomahawks for the Pirates & Long Range Air Launched Missiles (Sorry can’t recall the name) for RAAF was ordered with the view to build them here in Oz under licensed.

       The next Missile to be ordered is going to either a ground base rocket artillery system or the long range Ground Base Air Defence System, but with the last one there is some inter-service political bullshit between the Army & RAAF. The RAAF did have Long Range Ground Base Air Defence System in the 60’s with 30SQN’s British Bloodhound SAM’s integrated with the RAAF’s Control Report Units (Air Defence Radar) here in Darwin & Williamstown (Covering Sydney) in NSW.
   • roblogic 8.2

     22 September 2021 at 9:01 am

     You'll need to go into Safari Settings and turn off Javascript in order to comment from an iPad. (and watch out for the spam trap)

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