Daily review 25/11/2020

27 comments on “Daily review 25/11/2020 ”

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1. Ad 1

   25 November 2020 at 7:15 pm

   So if a bright line test doesn't cool the market at 2 or 5 years, why would it cool the market at 10 years?
   • weka 1.1

     25 November 2020 at 7:35 pm

     I can see it being of use as one of a number of things in an overall strategy. But this bits and pieces, hit and miss shit is just useless. It will stop the crises from deepening so fast I guess.
     • Sacha 1.1.1

       25 November 2020 at 7:51 pm

       It is just something symbolic they can do now without upsetting the horses too much. Feeble.
   • gsays 1.2

     25 November 2020 at 7:37 pm

     It is irrelevant how long it is, if there is zero consequence to non compliance then it is useless.
   • Herodotus 1.3

     25 November 2020 at 7:53 pm

     It's tokenism, and to be seen to be doing anything. After 9 years in opposition berating the then National govt, then 3 years to implement polices to fix the issue all that has happened is that the situation has worsened. So are we now to expect that having a tax on the profit will temper the market? So you make $100k over the last 2 months – there still is more profit than most of us earn after tax in a year, and they have had interest expenses greatly reduced. How is this bright line going to reverse these gains. Perhaps the govt should be just be honest, and say they don't have any answers.
     • Incognito 1.3.1

       25 November 2020 at 8:35 pm

       Perhaps the govt should be just be honest, and say they don't have any answers.

       That would be nothing more than virtue signalling and not good enough. They cannot be let off the hook. It is their duty and responsibility to govern for all of us and find a way forward. Handwringing and saying that it is complex and takes time is pathetic and meaningless. If they cannot do it, if they are not up to the job, then let somebody else take over who can and is. Unless we all agree that it is an unsolvable problem …
       • Pat 1.3.1.1

         25 November 2020 at 9:16 pm

         Its solvable but the solution would not be popular I suspect.
   • Andre 1.4

     25 November 2020 at 8:07 pm

     On the margins, someone might think if they have to leave their money tied up for ten years instead of five to get a tax-free gain and deal with the hassle of tenants, then they might think they're better off putting it in shares that are zero-hassle, and you can pull your money back out tax-free at a moment's notice.

     But that's really just a miniscule few right out on the margins. OTOH, markets going silly can get driven by just a few players out on the margins, so maybe.
     • Stuart Munro 1.4.1

       25 November 2020 at 10:53 pm

       It would be a brave person that reposed any trust in the clowns and bubble boys of the NZ share market. A review there is one step to cooling real estate, Key having opened in up rather along the lines of the way he opened up money laundering trusts. Rules are looser than they were 1987, when they proved too loose altogether.
   • RedLogix 1.5

     25 November 2020 at 9:14 pm

     Because as I've said many times here over the years, capital gains taxes are a very weak mechanism for cooling real estate prices.

     People who insist on singular solutions to complex problems only obscure understanding and delay progress.
     • mpledger 1.5.1

       25 November 2020 at 9:37 pm

       Things evolve over time. A singular solution is never "the solution" because the next idea is always around the corner.

       Repeated singular solutions might not be the most efficient way to get to the optimum but it the way to do so that is the least complex. Being the least complex means that a) people understand what is going and b) can see that it is fair because the rules are open and transparent – and that means there is buy-in.

       Singular solutions do not obscure understanding – quite the reverse.

       The whole scientific method is based on intervention, observation, reflection, update, repeat – a whole series of evolving singular solutions.
     • Incognito 1.5.2

       25 November 2020 at 9:52 pm

       Only when we view society and societal problems as a complex system that requires a systems approach will we be able to make progress. This is not new but it is not yet sufficiently implemented and practiced by policy makers and Governments. So, we seem stuck with ad hoc ‘solutions’ that are largely based on political expediency. These are generally singular, reductionist, and ineffective. What’s worse, they often have unintended consequences. I think part of the problem is that politics has not kept up with society and the political rules & tools are blunt, inconvenient, impractical, and outmoded.
       • Anne 1.5.2.1

         25 November 2020 at 10:44 pm

         I think part of the problem is that politics has not kept up with society…

         It depends what you mean by those words, but to me it is more the other way around. Society – or at least a significant portion of it – has not kept up with the politics. By that I mean they either don't have the cognitive abilities or they're too lazy to take an interest in the issues of the day and are therefore easily led up the garden path by scoundrels and liars. We've seen an excellent example of it being played out in the US over the past four years.

         This makes it extremely hard for a progressive government in particular being able to implement the polices they would like to, because they can't take the whole of society along with them. If they try to do so, they end up being thrown out of power and we end up with our version of a Trump regime. 🙁
       • McFlock 1.5.2.2

         25 November 2020 at 10:45 pm

         In the absence of a perfect policy, trying one thing at a time can't go too far wrong (especially when the worst-case scenario for a CGT is that it doesn't work).

         Personally I'd knock Kiwibuild on the head and start with direct government housing projects (50/50 sale/state rentals) with centrally-sorted consents. But even then that might just be throwing more tulips into the market.
     • Jester 1.5.3

       25 November 2020 at 11:03 pm

       Australia has a capital gains tax – are houses in Melbourne and Sydney cheaper than Auckland?
   • bwaghorn 1.6

     26 November 2020 at 6:28 am

     Taxing cg isnt about cooling the housing market its about making the system fair.

     If you want to cool the housing market have lvrs for investors at 80% unless they ate building new.
2. greywarshark 2

   25 November 2020 at 8:57 pm

   This job is a Moral Crusade! It would be weak and unbecoming to give up, and lose all that lovely money, and have that failure of righteousness showing up on one's CV. The world belongs to the rich (comfortably-off) and disdainful so there.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/431447/oranga-tamariki-s-grainne-moss-admits-ministry-failings-refuses-to-resign
3. greywarshark 3

   25 November 2020 at 9:00 pm

   Hope you're managing on dry ground over in New Plymouth – looks nasty. Napier, New Plymouth ……?
4. millsy 4

   25 November 2020 at 9:02 pm

   Too many people benefit from high rent and house prices. Which is why the problem will never be sold.

   And the old trope 'Scrap the RMA' will not result in a single cheaper house.

   We are doomed.
5. greywarshark 5

   25 November 2020 at 9:10 pm

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/431452/gisborne-endeavour-saga-continues-as-propositions-for-model-roll-in

   Former councillor Malcolm MacLean, who co-organised a fundraiser to rebuild two Endeavour models, said he "can't say too much at this stage" but confirmed they had received offers for the model…

   It follows a decision by Gisborne district councillors on 12 November to seek permanent installation of one model at the museum, despite the museum's director saying they did not want it.

   When formally offered the model, the Tairāwhiti Museum director and trust refused, saying it was both "impractical" and "incompatible" with its policies.

   Seems like – 'Ooh a bit precious aren't you all?'
   • Phillip ure 5.1

     25 November 2020 at 9:34 pm

     Cook was a fucken barbarian/killer….on multiple levels…and not just in new zealand..why would anyone want a replica of his fucken boat ..?
     • Chris T 5.1.1

       25 November 2020 at 10:19 pm

       In what way?
     • Stuart Munro 5.1.2

       25 November 2020 at 11:00 pm

       Cook was a decent cartographer under considerable stress. Laying all the wrongs of colonialism at his feet is misguided – NZ's history is short enough the real malefactors are known.
       • solkta 5.1.2.1

         25 November 2020 at 11:08 pm

         More the point, the ship no do it.
       • Phillip ure 5.1.2.2

         26 November 2020 at 9:21 am

         Have a look at what yr 'brave cartographer' did in easter island..just for starters..
         • Stuart Munro 5.1.2.2.1

           26 November 2020 at 9:33 am

           I didn't call him brave – but he was pretty professional. You should be a bit more specific with your slanders – Cook was ill during his time on Easter Island and didn't get up to much.

           A number of folk have blamed him for spreading syphilis throughout the Pacific, but this is a canard. Cook was by no means the first European in the area, whaling crews were already operating and meeting with local people. And syphilis is endemic in most human populations – it is the form that varies. For centuries Europeans blamed syphilis on the New World, but archeology has established it was endemic in classical times.
           • greywarshark 5.1.2.2.1.1

             26 November 2020 at 10:52 am

             Stuart some great factual responses there. With links. Kapai.

             And here is a good resource for Te Reo – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDaClB5Z4J8

             As Manuel says – 'I learn, I learn'.

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