Daily Review 31/08/2017
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5:30 pm, August 31st, 2017 - 85 comments
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The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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Hot off the press.
Colmar Brunton poll at 6 sounds like it could be interesting. Matthew Hooton is predicting a crisis for National. I get the feeling Labour is over 40 …
Labour – 43
National – 41
Greens – 5
NZFirst – 8
MP -1
Act –
TOP – 1
TOP 1% down from 2%…excellent….good to see the Greens back….Colmar always underrates them
I reckon Greens voters will turn out in force especially after seeing James in action in the debates he is kicking butt there. Red and Green just like Christmas, I’m down with that 😀
I rated him the best performer at last night’ TV3 debate.
If it happens my lounge will be decked out in red and green this Xmas and it won’t have a lot to do with Xmas. 😀
most green voters are young there not on landlines there higher than 5 percent and i think labour could be higher to given Jacinda is killing nact on face book
Gareth, you rich prick, that’s called crows coming home to roost or icing on the cake. lol
+100
I they’re birds coming home to roost, that white stuff on the cake isn’t icing.
He probably shouldn’t have killed all the cats 😈
Wow, is that a L/G/Mp government?
It’s looking like Christmas 😀 Not sure if MP will make it
The only way that the Maori Party make it is if they win a Maori seat and that’s not looking likely. Their support has dropped from their inception.
🙌
Entirely possible!
The Mp vote is too small based on the previous Maori TV poll, where they polled 17.5% of the Maori roll party vote. That’s about 1.2% of the total roll, so even if they got no votes at all from the general roll (obviously not happening), they are on track for 2 seats, not 1, assuming they win an electorate (the same Maori TV poll had them in front in 2 Maori electorates, so that seems likely).
The other important point, as Swordfish has shown, is that CB tends to be slightly in National’s favour over Labour, so this poll may well understate the left bloc.
Awesome!
Conniptions ahoy!
Labour + NZF can form a govt without the Greens. NZF will like that idea, particularly given that they have said they will talk to the party with the most votes first.
Ardern has said recently that she still intends to talk to the Greens first. That’s what the MoU was for.
It is at the stage where L+G is nearly viable. Imagine that!
Am really pleased to see Ardern sticking to the MoU, that’s what is making this possible.
Nightmare. The $$ is plunging already against the US and AU. Watch the price of fuel hike for a start…that’s just the beginning…
I remember having the same “the dollar will plunge” conversation with a fellow tourism dependent retailer before the ’99 election. He got his news from NBR but couldn’t see that it was the best thing that could happento the sector.
Well, Labour got elected, the “markets” threw a hissy and our dollar dropped, and tourism took off. And it took off from markets that had money to spend, like US and Australia. Seem to remember a lot of farmers spending a bit of money in the local economy too.
10 – 20% drop in our dollar would be the best thing that could happen, it’ll keep more money in our economy because locally produced items are more attractive and imports more expensive, and will bring more money into the country because we are more price competitive with other countries.
Which means that a number of people need to drop TOP and vote Green.
A vote for TOP is a wasted vote that could see National back in power.
pretty much. Labour also need to start getting more votes from NZF rather than the Greens.
Twould be fantastic!
Pointless talking to the Greens first if Nat + NZF can form a govt.
Lab and the Greens have always said they would work with NZF if needed.
The MoU doesn’t rule out NZF, it just says that Labour and the Greens have a commitment to change the govt and will talk to each other after the votes have been counted with the idea of forming govt if that is possible on the numbers. If NZF are also needed they’ll be approached too.
Ben
Pointless passing opinions without some long-term thinking.
couple of points more to either, and labour+greens can govern without NZ1.
While I like the sound of that, Labour will also be able to haggle between the two smaller parties.
I’m sure Labour will do deals with more than one party, to allow it to maintain control and not be beholden to any one party.
Which is still preferable to a “kingmaker” situation.
Yeah – Ardern is smart enough to want NZF in the tent in some form or other even if she doesn’t strictly need them this time around – increases her chances of going 3 terms. Like Key and the Maori Party.
And 5 years out an NZF without Peters might be a less unpredictable beast.
“And 5 years out an NZF without Peters might be a less unpredictable beast.”
Unless they deliver another iconic figure – probably will be a much, much smaller beast….
i want labour /greens to form a gov without NZ first
This requires more lefties voting Green.
Or more NZ First and/or National voters voting Labour :).
Won’t help if the Greens drop below 5%.
When Adern realises she’s unassailable, she’ll direct perhaps-Greens to vote Green. Power moment.
It will be a make or break moment for Labour. It’s also possible they’re retrench into the old thinking and go for it on their own. Share power or powermonger?
Ardern could instruct Labour voters in Ohariu to not vote for Greg O’Connor and instead elect Tane Woodley. A nicely worded letter would do it I reckon.
lol
Needs to be a cross-country call, imo.
A mass mail-out you’re saying, Robert? I like it!
Agree, but Green voters vote Green and keep them above 5%, and meanwhile NZ First and National voters vote Labour, and suddenly we’re at a majority between us!
I think so long as Labour don’t do anything stupid, National won’t be forming the next govt. What concerns me more is whether we get a strong Green govt. Six Green MPs isn’t enough for ending poverty or fixing water or climate change. Plus the loss of all that talent. It would also make it hard for NZ to move left, although Bill might be right that it will take another 3 years (which btw, is Labour losing popularity as it holds the status quo and thus doesn’t make a big enough difference).
Change the govt yes, but we need to change it to a progressive one and that needs lots of Green MPs. I fear that the shift from Greens to Labour signals that many lefties are happy with a bit of tinkering. That’s the depressing thing atm.
+111
Changing the government doesn’t achieve anything if the new government just does things the same way.
HELL YEAH Labour is ahead of National and Jacinda is ahead of Bill WOOOOOO HOOO
Far out the debate tonight is still to come, HOT DANG that should always happen
HUZZAH!
Epic fist pumping moments NZ wide 😀
That’s exactly what I did! Wahoo!
She’s unstoppable.
For me that Whangarei poll last weekend showed that Labour is in the box seat as if they can be competitive in a seat like that where they have been absolutely pummeled since 2005. And what a result tonight. There must now surely be only 3 more weeks left for the most corrupt and unimaginative government. Will they be able to govern alone……
Still 3 weeks to go, I can see the Greens gaining momentum and getting back to 8, and if Labour can move upwards more as well, they’ll be able to govern on their own.
Looking forward to the future now
Voting starts in 12 days-September 11th. VOTE EARLY!
And vote often!*
* this post is to stir up paranoid right wing fear of voter fraud.
NewsFlash
It is only on the last two Colmar Bruntons that the GP has dropped below 8% (near the 12-16 August period in which CB had them at 4.3%, UMR had them unchanged at 8% as of 11-16 August). The last Roy Morgan has them at 9% and Reid Research at 8.3% (I’m guessing there will be a new Newshub poll soon, and probably another leaked UMR).
Still, with the potential for polls to become self-fulfilling prophecies around the 5% threshold; it is important for the GP to avoid even the perception of vulnerability.
Dspare
Yes, 8% is the usual base support, they have been as high as 15, the long term avg over 20yrs is 8%, I’m hoping they can get to 10% before the election.
As they say, one day in politics is a long time
Yes the Greens need to be at
Lab 45
Nat 30
Gee 15
Nzf 10
Top 6
Mpt. 4
This is my wish full election day stats
Hi EM. This totals at 110. Seats in Parliament = 120. Percentage = 100. Can you advise what the units are, and reallocate if necessary. Cheers.
Let’s sit back and enjoy three weeks of JDS (Jacinda Derangement Syndrome) from the right…
Love it. And as the election draws nearer JDS will reach epidemic proportions.
24 hour watch on Matthew Hooton coming up?
Or see those on the right get ARSed with Ardern Resurgence Sickness.
Emergency…. My apologies, ahem “transitional” housing under National.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201856860
Summary: cold concrete floor and lack of drinkable water with management refusing to talk to RNZ because…what could anyone say to make this acceptable?
My mistake..further in the interview its all explained. The rooms have rugs, water issue was temporary etc etc.
Apparently they agent really treated like dogs dropped in a local pound, its all teething problems.
They paid over $700,000 to buy the facility (the local Maori-named provider) and
have a three year contract. Presumably they have spent most of the money available for this project on buying the property.
One would think that a practical gummint would provide some mass-produced furniture and gas bottles and solar showers for hot water.
Also drinkable water, (note ‘potable’ not as recently used portable). Charities from NZ help out in the Islands and Africa with rainwater collection tanks. We need some charity to help us here in NZ as our government has no charity to those in need.
All eyes are likely to be on the debate tonight, but if there is a long period of Hosking waffle or ads consider shifting the tab (or screen). This is what I’ll be mainly watching this evening [edit: Minto just up to the mike now – sound quality is pretty rough and it certainly isn’t as glossy as the TVNZ show, but that suits the subject matter]:
Turei on stage and sound is a lot better now.
[edit] It is a weird experience watching the TVNZ debate and listening to Turei’s words – gotta be better than whatever English/ Hoskings are spouting. There is a linear distortion to the stream that is a bit unsettling to watch when she moves.
I gave up on the debate. Hosking was unbearable. Switched to Turei livestream.
Hopefully the talk will be available to view in the future, it certainly deserved greater numbers than it got! It’d be interesting to hear from anyone in Christchurch who was there to get their impressions.
I only watched half of it myself what with; children bedtime dramas, and occasionally turning up the sound on TVNZ debate. But there did seem to be a lot more substance to Turei’s talk, and audience interaction, than in the shallow contest of leaders (as much due to the format as anything).
For Bill
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11914930
“Some people have claimed that Peters would have received a letter every year for the past seven years asking him to confirm his relationship status.
But that in fact is not the case. The Ministry of Social development says that “annual circumstances letters” were sent to NZ superannuation clients: who do not have personal earnings and who receive the accommodation supplement, or the single living alone rate of NZ Super, or a disability allowance with a permanent medical condition.
“Any other NZ superannuitant is not routinely contacted to reconfirm their circumstances”.
Ah, so rich people are treated differently because their rich as a matter of policy.
where is BM ???
BM is singing:
Banned for pissing us off one too many times.
It’s that time.
https://nzbillboards.tumblr.com/
The one that made me lol, but it’s a bit too disrespectful, was the “f*¢@ off back to England”. It’s kind of so dumb, but funny for some reason!
National will come out fighting after bad poll for them. Watch out! No holds barred! Duck or fight back!
DHBs are under real pressure but things are going to get much worse – if the apoplexy tide on Kiwiblog about the poll is any indication.
Here’s a nice pic of Jacinda
https://nzbillboards.tumblr.com/image/97447587827
Goodness me! Those love-heart-studded,”Thank you Metiria” billboards are something, aren’t they!
Yes, heartening.
🙂
its a biggy
https://twitter.com/esaoperations/status/899916029102632960