Down the gurgler

Written By: - Date published: 7:57 am, September 17th, 2011 - 64 comments
Categories: capitalism, Economy, International, sustainability - Tags: ,

The warnings on the economy are coming thick and fast now, both globally and nationally. Here’s the head of the World Bank:

World in new economic danger zone: Zoellick

The head of the World Bank says the world has entered a new economic danger zone and that Europe, Japan and the United States all need to make hard decisions to avoid dragging down the global economy. …

“They have procrastinated for too long on taking the difficult decisions, narrowing what choices are now left to a painful few,” he said, according to a prepared text of his remarks, which come ahead of meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund next week.

The meetings of global finance and development leaders in Washington will focus on Europe’s debt crisis and the risk of a Greek default, which has led to growing alarm in financial markets.

Mixed signals from European leaders have escalated concerns the 17-nation euro zone may be unable to unite behind a common approach to tackle the crisis.

Here’s our very own Governor of the Reserve Bank:

Bollard downbeat as interest rates held

The Reserve Bank governor has painted a grim picture of the economy this morning as he held interest rates at 2.5%.

Dr Alan Bollard said the economic situation was deteriorating internationally and NZ would be affected. … Europe’s debt crises are worsening, particularly in Greece, and there are reports today that EU leaders are being warned a “second credit crunch” is on its way. …

He said debt concerns in Europe and the poorer global outlook means international bank funding markets are tightening up….

Commentator Gareth Vaughan, from interest.co.nz, told TVNZ today that the world picture has again got “very murky” and it will affect New Zealand. “We are a country that relies heavily on exports and a lot of the big export markets around the world are in serious trouble,” he said.

Part of the problem with the “Western” economies is that the greed of the elites is destroying the “middle class”. I’ve written on this before, in NZ the accumulation of ever greater wealth by the already wealthy is squeezing the life out of the economy.  See also this excellent piece on the same effect in America, “The decline and fall of the American middle class”.

Bigger picture,  what we’re really seeing is the wheels falling off two of the fundamental but unsustainable assumptions of capitalism. First the concept of money as debt, and second the assumption of infinite growth in a finite world.  Its looking more and more like  we’re never going to recover from 2008, and the whole global economy is about to head straight down the gurgler.

 

64 comments on “Down the gurgler ”

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  1. marsman 1
    17 September 2011 at 8:09 am

    And of course NZ is not the only country with an incompetent trougher as Minister of Finance.

  2. One Anonymous Bloke 2
    17 September 2011 at 8:37 am

    It’s not “The Western economies” – it is certain countries within that economic group. It is extremely frustrating (to say the least) to watch while the USA, for example, but we are another, pursues policies that have been tested many times and failed on every occasion, while other wiser governments provide a myriad of examples of what works.
    “The elites” are not united on this front, even in the USA.
     

    • r0b 2.1
      17 September 2011 at 8:45 am

      “The elites” are not united on this front, even in the USA.

      Fair comment – there are honourable exceptions.

      • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1
        17 September 2011 at 12:23 pm

        Just very few of them. Generally speaking, to get to the top in capitalism requires that you be a psychopath with an unquenchable need for more.

        • M 2.1.1.1
          18 September 2011 at 10:02 pm

          Amen to that Draco – capitalists are immune to sharing and thinking of the future.

          I’ve totally given up on msm and get my news from Collapsenet, MCR being one of the few men I can actually respect because truth for him is paramount. Keiser and Karl Denninger also are on the menu having worked in the financial markets and they call a spade a spade.

          Funny will be the day when all the elites money, gold, whatever cannot buy them a place in a community or indeed any food and they’ll be on the outside.

          Anyone who doubts that the current paradigm is as good as it’s going to get is living on the conspiracy theory that the good times are just around the corner.

        • aerobubble 2.1.1.2
          19 September 2011 at 9:46 am

          Which makes it even more inexplicable that we only have one legislative chamber,
          and even Labour rushes bills into law under urgency. NZ is rich, will be richer
          if it had a clue in the new eco-world economy, yet we do not hire enough
          politicians to make a large enough pool to pick the best of breed. They
          are simply hopeless, they know they are safe as long as they kiss enough
          arse and get high enough on the list. The greens have to supply them their
          policies, publically testing it, before they pick up on policy. We cannot
          keep running a Senate Chamber of 100, it obviously isn’t working.
          Why do we give so few so much credit when they routinely abuse the
          power vested in them, and miss yet more opportunities to serve NZ.

  3. Colonial Viper 3
    17 September 2011 at 8:37 am

    The “hard decisions” all these indebted countries need to take is to give the banks 67% hair cuts on all outstanding debt, unilaterally reduce all sovereign debt interest rates to 4% pa, and start acting on behalf of their people, not corporate boards.

    • RedLogix 3.2
      17 September 2011 at 9:47 am

      Well as Steven Keen likes to point out “debt that cannot be repaid…. will not be repaid.“.

      The inherent problem with all systems where all money is issued in debt is that eventually they must breakdown, because the debt can never be repaid. This is an ancient problem that we should have learnt to overcome by now; even in Old Testament times they had ‘debt jubilee’ every 40 years or so for exactly this reason.

  4. randal 4
    17 September 2011 at 9:25 am

    ignorance is bliss. the top 400 have no idea how the rest of the world lives and by and large they dont care. all they know is they are winners and the rest are losers. they are like the Spartans and the Nobles in pre revolutionary France. they will not alter their assumptions or mores and would prefer to go down rich rather than share.

    • RedLogix 4.1
      17 September 2011 at 9:41 am

      Yes we know that.

      Now what are we offering as the alternative?

      • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1
        17 September 2011 at 12:25 pm

        A good living standard for all that is sustainable.

        • aerobubble 4.1.1.1
          19 September 2011 at 10:10 am

          If only we stopped buying into big corporates and created more
          local co-ops to bulk buy and enterain ourselves. The wheels
          would come off the whole spin machine. But they need to
          keep the bulk of people active, in the pursuit of the dream
          lifestyle, and most people need that kind of follower,being
          led, existence. Truely independant thinkers hate the big
          lefties and rightest as much as each other.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 4.2
      17 September 2011 at 9:42 am

      Most of the Objectivist loons I’ve come across work in security. The wealthy take a more pragmatic approach, and they know precisely how people live, and die. But it wasn’t the wealthy that elected the fools who are mangling NZ’s economy.

  5. rosy 5
    17 September 2011 at 9:48 am

    I thought this exchange was very interesting…

    At a meeting of Euro heads that the U.S. Secretary of State, Tim Geithner, attended today The U.S Secretary of state urged the Eurozone countries to extend their bailout fund and work together to tackle the financial crisis

    His comments were leapt on by Austria’s finance minister Maria Fekter: “He conveyed dramatically that we need to commit money to avoid bringing the system into difficulty,” she said. “I found it peculiar that even though the Americans have significantly worse fundamental data than the eurozone, that they tell us what we should do and when we make a suggestion … that they say no straight away.”

    She said there had been particular disagreement over suggestions that Europe should commit more money to fighting the crisis. When German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble explained that would not go down well with taxpayers and that the only way to fund it would be a financial transaction tax, Geithner ruled any such tax out. “In these countries, there is a desire for a transaction tax,” Fekter said. “[Geithner] ruled that out.”

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1
      17 September 2011 at 10:02 am

      Hilary Clinton is the Secretary of State; Tim Geithner is the Treasury Secretary.
      An FTT will work best if all countries participate. What chance do you suppose there is that the loonies in Congress would approve this even if Obama suggested it?
      I hope Europe goes ahead with it nonetheless.

      • rosy 5.1.1
        17 September 2011 at 10:09 am

        Yes, you’re right. I knew there was something wrong as I was reading the article, wonder how long it will take to get that article corrected….

        Nah the loonies in congress won’t approve a FTT… they’re so dysfunctional but have no problem telling Europe to what to do. And yes, I hope Europe will go with the FTT too.

  6. Colonial Viper 6
    17 September 2011 at 9:58 am

    Greek man torches himself in front of bank

    It’s turning ugly now. Now not just in Egypt or Tunis.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2038346/Horrifying-moment-small-business-owner-sets-outside-bank-left-riddled-debt-Greece-s-failing-economy.html

  7. Hilary 7
    17 September 2011 at 10:13 am

    I heard on twitter that there are anti bank protests planned around the world this weekend.

  8. johnm 8
    17 September 2011 at 10:49 am

    ====================== An Unstable society where wealth is concentrated at the top. Positive
    ================== Participation and motivation is absent for the “poorer classes”. Even
    ============== -tually such societies collapse or revolutions happen. However slave
    ========== and wage slave societies can put off the inevitable by constraining
    ======= the exploited. Slave revolts in Rome were mercilessly exterminated.
    ===== Protesters in Victorian England transported to Australia.
    ===

    ========== A Stable society where wealth is well distributed amongst all ==================== classes. Inequality is minimised. Reflects the structure of a Pagoda.
    ===================== Everyone has a stake and is not alienated, marginalised. It would
    ===================== require transfer from speculation wealth to Government intervention
    ===================== to ensure everyone able does work. A stable society also requires
    recognition of Peak Oil and environmental limits and the need for
    population control. A stable society will not be fun like the free for
    all of individualism , it would be a much more serious business
    where we truly accept responsibility for others, the future and the
    environment—-Probably why no one is enthusiastic for this option.
    Too much like real work.

    • Draco T Bastard 8.1
      17 September 2011 at 12:31 pm

      +1

      Too much like real work.

      Pretty much. The capitalists want wealth transferred to them without them actually having to work – and our laws actually are written to achieve this theft.

  9. Afewknowthetruth 9
    17 September 2011 at 11:28 am

    ‘Bigger picture, what we’re really seeing is the wheels falling off two of the fundamental but unsustainable assumptions of capitalism. First the concept of money as debt, and second the assumption of infinite growth in a finite world. Its looking more and more like we’re never going to recover from 2008, and the whole global economy is about to head straight down the gurgler.’

    That’s close , but the really big picture we are witnessing is an early stage of the reversal of the Industrial Revolution plus breakdown of the global environment all rolled into one.

    The majority of people will refuse to become informed about any of it, will refuse to accept reality, and will learn the hard way.

    http://guymcpherson.com/2011/09/lessons-of-history/

    As johnm said: ‘Too much like real work’.

    http://www.publishme.co.nz/shop/theeasyway-p-684.html

    By the way, most share markets are up today, so ‘the crisis must be over’…… well until October.

    • Lanthanide 9.1
      17 September 2011 at 11:43 am

      I’ve heard the same conspiracy theories that the economy would fall apart in Aug-Oct in 2009, 2010 and now this year. It didn’t happen in either of those years, and I’m not particularly convinced it’s going to happen this year either.

      • mik e 9.1.1
        17 September 2011 at 11:48 am

        Agreed lanth

      • RedLogix 9.1.2
        17 September 2011 at 12:31 pm

        Yes and there were any number of ‘conspiracy theories’ all through 1937, 1938 and 1939 that war was imminent.

        And what.. that never happened either?

        • Lanthanide 9.1.2.1
          17 September 2011 at 12:43 pm

          Well this particular conspiracy theory is that the financial meltdowns always happen in the 3rd quarter, so therefore if a financial meltdown is going to happen in any particular year, it must be in the 3rd quarter. That in itself seems like magical thinking to me.

          So the financial system is in big trouble, everyone agrees with that. But why do you have to go and say “this October”. Why can’t you just say “sometime in the next 9 months”?

          • RedLogix 9.1.2.1.1
            17 September 2011 at 12:51 pm

            Oh well yes, I’d more or less agree with that. History probably suggests a heightened risk during this period (and various people have put forward possible reasons why) … but overall the act of collapse is essentially chaotic, and chaos is chaos… unpredictable in the details.

            While I guess we agree that in the long-term the end result is going to be a pile of rubble.

          • mik e 9.1.2.1.2
            17 September 2011 at 5:36 pm

            Tax has to be paid in the US at this time so everybody sells a few shares to pay and the markets get the wobbles ask ken ring.

      • Fermionic Interference 9.1.3
        17 September 2011 at 12:38 pm

        Ok so because we’ve heard it before and it hasn’t happened yet it wont happen , right, just like the global climate change nay sayers.

        Predicting the collapse of any structure is difficult without data to match the model to.
        This is why, the when, of the severe impacts of climate change are difficult to model and why those that predict massive economic upheaval find accurate estimates of the time when change occurs so hard to forecast.

        Think about it, 7M + people, massive inequality between those people, peak oil 5-6 years past (IAEA), climatic degradation and major fluctuation of weather patterns and an economic theory that is failing the majority of people and favouring less than 1%.

        Changes must occur it’s just a matter of when and how drastic and unpleasant they are.

        • Lanthanide 9.1.3.1
          17 September 2011 at 12:44 pm

          I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just pointing out that in 2009 and 2010 there were the same “ominous signs” that something bad was going to happen “in the 3rd quarter”, and they never eventuated either.

          Persisting with the same logic that “financial meltdowns always occur in the 3rd quarter” just seems hokey to me.

          • Fermionic Interference 9.1.3.1.1
            17 September 2011 at 1:48 pm

            I agree with regard to the 3rd quarter argument there seems to be only one basis I can see for that idea and it’s that the Northern hemisphere hit autumn at that stage which may impact demand goodness alone knows why else people may think that the 3rd quarter is the most likely time for a crash.

          • Draco T Bastard 9.1.3.1.2
            17 September 2011 at 2:59 pm

            Persisting with the same logic that “financial meltdowns always occur in the 3rd quarter” just seems hokey to me.

            3rd quarter = beginning of the Northern Winter and, despite the economy being “global” most of it occurs in the north and winter is when things go slow. Farms aren’t producing, people are staying home in the warmth rather than going out, etc etc. A financial meltdown really is more probable in the third quarter but the one you should really be afraid of is the one that happens in the 2nd quarter as that would be indicative that the “economy” isn’t coming out of the slowdown of winter.

            • Lanthanide 9.1.3.1.2.1
              17 September 2011 at 3:13 pm

              Yeah, I recognise that there is obviously a seasonal component to the economy, and going into autumn in the northern hemisphere tends to crystallise things (and that’s also when lots of crops are harvested etc).

              What I’m very tired and skeptical of is these people that come out of the woodwork at this time of year predicting big scary financial doom. I’m not sure if many other people on here have seen the sorts of posts I have, but I’m talking about the ones posted on various blogs where they come up with a list of about 18 or 19 statistics showing that the economy is in ‘serious trouble’ and that we just have to wait for the 3rd quarter when suddenly everyone’s going to put their heads up and notice the problems and the system will collapse.

              These posts are invariably by non-economists who for the most part think they know how the world financial system works when really they don’t – it’s simply not rational on the face of it and they’re treating it as if it is. “Everyone” generally “knows” that the US is in a hole if isn’t going to be able to dig itself out of, and yet lately whenever there has been a “flight to safety” people have been buying US government bonds. This makes it clear that if you’re simply an armchair doomsayer, you can look at all the stats you want and make all the predictions you want but you really don’t understand the system and so aren’t likely to come to any reasonable sort of conclusion. Hell, economists themselves don’t even have a particularly good track record at predicting ‘black swan’ events, so why should we lend any special credence to armchair doomsayers?

              Sure, we might see a serious issue with the global economy this year, like we did in 2007 and 2008, but generally the arguments being put forward by those who think it will are the same sorts of arguments they used in 2009 and 2010, so why should we lend them any extra credence this time? If the fundamentals were really as bad as they were saying (and there were no further financial tricks to be played to kick the can down the road further) and it was just a matter of timing surely it would’ve crashed in the 4th quarter or 1st quarter of the next year, and yet that too never happened.

              Incidentally I should point out that my reading of the statement by the head of the world bank, as quoted in the original post, seems more like a medium-term 6-60 month issue, not something that’s going to come to a head in the next 2 months.

              • Colonial Viper …
                17 September 2011 at 5:59 pm

                These posts are invariably by non-economists who for the most part think they know how the world financial system works when really they don’t – it’s simply not rational on the face of it and they’re treating it as if it is.

                What the hell Lanth.

                Mainstream economists are the ones who believe in the rationality of markets and market actors, and in the fairness and efficiency of the market place.

                In reality non-economists are the ones who know that is a load of shit.

                You have got your understanding completely in reverse.

                Sure, we might see a serious issue with the global economy this year, like we did in 2007 and 2008, but generally the arguments being put forward by those who think it will are the same sorts of arguments they used in 2009 and 2010, so why should we lend them any extra credence this time? If the fundamentals were really as bad as they were saying (and there were no further financial tricks to be played to kick the can down the road further) and it was just a matter of timing surely it would’ve crashed in the 4th quarter or 1st quarter of the next year, and yet that too never happened.

                WTF,

                You are talking as if what happened in 2007 and 2008 is a different crisis to what is coming down the pike now.

                ITS THE SAME CRISIS, it never finished being played out, the game of pretend and extend (kicking the can down the road if you will) has simply meant that the same crisis is continuing into over time.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1.3.2
          17 September 2011 at 1:13 pm

          The difference being that in Climatology, the forecasts of catastrophe are made by climatologists. In Economics, not so much.

          • Fermionic Interference 9.1.3.2.1
            17 September 2011 at 1:56 pm

            My reasons for expecting a crunch are based on mathematical and physical principles.

            We cannot continue to grow in a biosphere (the Earth) of finite resources this is just a simple fact, there are limits to sustainable (survivable) population levels.

            There is a limit to the available resources in our biosphere.

            Never underestimate the bounds of human stupidity.
            If we cannot educate the majority of people to understand the limits of our biosphere, we will as a species, continue to consume and destroy until an unknown point when that point is and how much devastation we have caused to our planet, other species or our own evolution or intellectual advances I do not know nor care to speculate.

            • One Anonymous Bloke 9.1.3.2.1.1
              17 September 2011 at 2:06 pm

              Ok, so now it’s environmental/population catastrophe as opposed to economic. Is this Gish gallop going anywhere?

              • Fermionic Interference …
                17 September 2011 at 2:25 pm

                Nah mate those are my reasons for expecting an economic crash crunch or whatever you want to call it, there is no way to extricate the environmental and population pressure issues from the economic situation they are inextricably linked.

                NZ is an easy example of this our economy rides largely on commodities and largely low value added commodities at that, so when water quality, rainfall, available land etc become major issues our economy will be in even more trouble than it is now.
                This isn’t the complete picture there isn’t time/space for me to put up an all encompassing example.

      • Colonial Viper 9.1.4
        17 September 2011 at 3:14 pm

        I’ve heard the same conspiracy theories that the economy would fall apart in Aug-Oct in 2009, 2010 and now this year. It didn’t happen in either of those years, and I’m not particularly convinced it’s going to happen this year either.

        Ahem. Depends where you stand.

        For 46M Americans, the ‘American Dream’ now consists of food stamps, and for many of them, foreclosure.

        Now I am seeing FaceBook pages popping up describing “Dumpster Diving Clubs” where people try and make their food budget meet ends by…dumpster diving. (Not as bad as it sounds as in the US they waste a lot of perfectly good brand new packaged food etc).

        But to summarise: the economy does not fall apart all at once, or for everyone at once. But smart money has been lining up.

        • Lanthanide 9.1.4.1
          17 September 2011 at 3:38 pm

          “But to summarise: the economy does not fall apart all at once, or for everyone at once. But smart money has been lining up.”

          Yes, of course, and I agree.

          But that’s not what these people predicting financial doom in the 3rd quarter say – they act like the whole system is going to keel over and die.

  10. One Anonymous Bloke 10
    17 September 2011 at 2:55 pm

    It’s easy to make wild predictions of impending doom. For many people it’s a hobby, but what’s lacking is any coherent theory.
    It’s a cop-out. Economic activity, for example, will exist as long as there are people, so expecting the end of economics is asinine, even while it keeps your nose clean.
    The arguments associated with overpopulation seem compelling, except that Julian Simon wins his bets, so the theory isn’t matched by the real world thus far.
    Climate change (assuming business as usual) is going to degrade our environment far more than we have managed to by other means, and as it does so, the likelihood is that it will degrade our ability to pollute and trade, and render many of these other issues moot. This is not a prediction, it is a simple summation of the forecasts made in IPCC AR4, which are now being revealed to have erred on the conservative side – ie: it’s worse than they thought.
    But clamouring about end times is a witless and futile response to these forecasts. Resilience, organisation, planning, these are our options.

    • Lanthanide 10.1
      17 September 2011 at 3:02 pm

      Agree with your sentiments 100%, OAB.

    • Fermionic Interference 10.2
      17 September 2011 at 3:06 pm

      Well said you put it much better than I did.

      organisation and planning have to be done but I think we first need to educate and explain to gain enough traction for the planning to have an effect. Because if we don’t encompass enough of the population in the understanding of the issues in a democratic system we cannot gain support for the changes that we need to make, would you agree with that?

      Also how do you expect the world economy to respond to a change a way from business as usual?
      especially with regard to reducing resources per capita?

    • Colonial Viper 10.3
      17 September 2011 at 3:18 pm

      but what’s lacking is any coherent theory.

      Don’t need a coherent theory, by the time the academics come up with one it will all be in the rear view mirror. This is new ground (not major economic collapses, they’ve happened before of course, but globalised instaneous collapse, that’s only possible in the e-age, where a billion dollar bank run can happen in 30 minutes and a bank made totally insolvent in 90).

      Agree with your point however that resiliency is the way to go. And I would add decoupling from the global economy and global financial system in a myriad of small ways, is going to be crucial.

      • RedLogix 10.3.1
        17 September 2011 at 6:28 pm

        Well if you want a coherent theory it’s hard to go past Jared Diamond. The two books most people seem to get the most out of are; Guns Gems and Steel and Collapse; How Societies choose to Fail or Suceed. The later certainly repays a good read:

        Diamond identifies five factors that contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbors, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and failure to adapt to environmental issues.

        He also lists 12 environmental problems facing mankind today. The first eight have historically contributed to the collapse of past societies:

        Deforestation and habitat destruction
        Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility losses)
        Water management problems
        Overhunting
        Overfishing
        Effects of introduced species on native species
        Overpopulation
        Increased per-capita impact of people

        Further, he says four new factors may contribute to the weakening and collapse of present and future societies:

        Anthropogenic climate change
        Buildup of toxins in the environment
        Energy shortages
        Full human utilization of the Earth’s photosynthetic capacity

        Diamond also writes about cultural factors, such as the apparent reluctance of the Greenland Norse to eat fish.
        Diamond says Easter Island provides the best historical example of a societal collapse in isolation

        The root problem in all but one of Diamond’s factors leading to collapse is overpopulation relative to the practicable (as opposed to the ideal theoretical) carrying capacity of the environment.

    • Draco T Bastard 10.4
      17 September 2011 at 6:08 pm

      Resilience, organisation, planning, these are our options.

      Well, actually, there’s one other option – the free-market. Generally speaking, the world financial system follows this option because some fuckwits (erroneously called economists) said that it was a Good Idea. And the capitalists and their pet politicians went along with it because it validated their greed.

  11. One Anonymous Bloke 11
    17 September 2011 at 3:19 pm

    The people are already “educated enough”.
    Perhaps you misunderstood me – the planning can be seen in actions of local authorities all around the country; strengthening flood protection, etc. The plan is for a medium-level catastrophe, as opposed to a total one.
    I don’t expect the world economy to change much at all – I expect that climate change will render the question moot before any positive action is taken.
    There may be some sanity restored in financial markets, but that will look like previous responses – restoring the separation of commercial and financial banking sectors, for example – rather than anything radical.
    In the mean time we all get to adapt, and move to higher ground.

  12. Fermionic Interference 12
    17 September 2011 at 3:41 pm

    Ok
    Well then it’s about time we started preparing as a country for a medium level catastrophe and lets hope we avoid the worst case scenario of the IPCC reports eh.

  13. Afewknowthetruth 13
    17 September 2011 at 4:08 pm

    The level of ignorance of people who comment here never ceases to amaze me.

    Mainstream economics has no validity whatsoever because it is founded on assumptions which are completely detached from reality. Mainstream economics is completely worthless as a tool for operating a society, as a tool for planning, as a tool for anything constructive. Its only value is as a tool for keeping the dumbed-down masses deceived.

    One need only look at daily reports of ‘less that expected’, ‘more than expected’ , below forecast’, ‘budget blowout’ etc. which occur on a continuous basis to realise it’s all bullshit.

    The sooner we close all institutions supposedly teaching economics and fire all the economists in the country the sooner we will start to make some genuine progress.

    On the matter of financial jolts, it could well be that TPTB simply like playing the same joke over and over on the general public, knowing how stupid and uninformed most people are.

    All we know for certain is:

    October 1907

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907

    October 1929

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

    October 1973

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis

    October 1987

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

    October 1997

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_27,_1997_mini-crash

    October 2008

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_financial_crisis_in_October_2008

    In view of the fact that we are well past peak oil and falling off the EROIE curve, that fiat currencies are in meltdown, and numerous regions of the world are imploding because of environmental factors I’d rate the chance of a major financial jolt before the end of this year at around 70% and by the end of next year at 100%.

    But what would I know, I’ve only writen four books on the topic.

    I do love that old ‘conspiracy theory’ line that gets trotted by certain sectors of society out every time anyone mentions the truth. It doesn’t matter whether we’re talking about the truth about 9/11, the truth about money, the truth about the economy, the truth about wars ….. you name it: if it challenges the bullshit put out by officialdom it’s a ‘conspiracy theory’.

    The fact that wealthy elites might conspire to make more money for themselves doesn’t seem to occur to some people.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.1
      17 September 2011 at 5:04 pm

      Speaking of dumbing down the masses (sounds like a conspiracy to me), since you’ve written four books on the subject that makes you an economist, and by your own argument listening to you is therefore a waste of time. But I’d reached that conclusion independently 🙂

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1
        17 September 2011 at 5:41 pm

        Speaking of dumbing down the masses (sounds like a conspiracy to me)

        Hmmmmmmm how can it be a conspiracy when its out in the open?

        How is not slashing access to education, and slashing real funding to universities, not “dumbing down the masses”?

        Its right in front of your nose mate, its not a conspiracy.

      • mik e 13.1.2
        17 September 2011 at 5:44 pm

        As I pointed out above tax time in the US is October the market always gets the jitters then how big no one Knows .Perhaps Ken Ring or are you an astrologer.There are plenty of economists even in New Zealand that don’t follow The Chicago school of exploitative economics so bagging all economists is as silly as your conspiracy theories.

      • RedLogix 13.1.3
        17 September 2011 at 6:38 pm

        I’m reminded of the classic Dirty Harry line; “Opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one”.

        You go on believing whatever you want OAB. After all how many books did you say you’ve written again?

    • Lanthanide 13.2
      18 September 2011 at 10:07 am

      Yes, so lets join the dots:
      1. Any big economic bust ups always happen in October.
      2. The economy is in trouble right now
      3. It is going to be October soon.

      Mash 1, 2 and 3 together and we’re certain to have a calamity this October!

      What happened in October 1900-1096, October 1908-1928, October 1930-1972, October 1974-1986, October 1988-1996, October 1998-2007, October 2009-2010?

      Note that the economy was in trouble in 2009 and 2010 in October, and yet we didn’t have a crisis.

  14. Bill 14
    17 September 2011 at 5:46 pm

    I watched ‘Debtocracy’ the other night, a docu on the Greek ‘crisis’. (The link is below for anyone with the broadband and the inclination. [recommended])

    T’was revealing that while the Greek government was slashing public spending, it was spending hundreds of millions on arms contracts with Germany and others. Apparently that was a precondition of any ‘bail out’; that weapons sales to Greece would not be hampered by any austerity measures.

    Meanwhile, restructuring of the social fabric of the UK…welfare, state provisioning such as health, education, other public services such as libraries etc…is being overhauled (read: decimated) in double quick time. But the banks have been told in no uncertain terms that they must play their part….at no later point in time than 8 years from now.

    This ‘crisis’ is being pushed on compliant governments by financial institutions whose aim is to avoid the actual crisis (theirs) by creating one for us (via government policies that advocate austerity) which they just happen to derive immense profits from.

    So anyway, what to do about the entirety of those who comprise the venality and the stupidity of contemprary power; bankers, corporatists, politicians, assorted apologists?

    I mean, their shit is literally killing people.

    Is it enough to merely say; “Fuck the whole fucking lot of them!” ?

    http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/debtocracy/

    • Afewknowthetruth 14.1
      17 September 2011 at 8:03 pm

      Have you seen Inside Job?

      http://www.insidejob.com/

      It exposes much of the criminality that goes on in numerous financial insututions and so-called educational institutions.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 14.2
      17 September 2011 at 10:44 pm

      This ‘crisis’ is being pushed on compliant governments by financial institutions whose aim is to avoid the actual crisis (theirs) by creating one for us (via government policies that advocate austerity) which they just happen to derive immense profits from.

      Agreed, but there are also non-compliant governments pursuing alternative solutions. In other words the real problem is political, not economic, especially considering that it is economists proposing the alternatives.
      It was dumb-ass politicians who repealed Glass-Steagel, for example.
       
       

      • Bill 14.2.1
        18 September 2011 at 8:19 am

        I’ve no doubt there are non-compliant governments pusuing positive socio-centric policies.

        But I just can’t think of any being reported in the media. Which means we are being sold a line that purports to be the whole story. Innit funny how ‘balance’ only becomes an issue on matters that contradict official or corporate lines (eg climate collapse).

        Not wanting to wind up in moderation, I won’t mention or draw a comparison to that bastion of information that existed on the other side of a now collapsed wall.

  15. Afewknowthetruth 15
    17 September 2011 at 7:52 pm

    OAB.

    ‘since you’ve written four books on the subject that makes you an economist,’

    Applying your logic, if someone writes a book which exposes the abuses of the Catholic Church that makes them a Catholic.

    What a fuckwit!