I don’t think the global economy is out of the woods yet. Not by a long shot. But pundits are talking up any sign of “recovery” as good news. Here in NZ for example:
Brighter economic times ahead
Cheer up Kiwis, because 2011 is looking like the brightest economic year since the global financial crisis plunged the world into recession three years ago.
Hurrah? Not really:
Treasury has this afternoon released a series of figures and commentary on the state of the economy so far this year. It’s hardly a cause for celebration, with growth expected to be 0.9 per cent less than earlier forecast, but it’s growth all the same. Treasury said it expected real economic growth in 2011 of around 3 per cent, which was better than the 1.5 per cent recorded in 2010 and the -1.7 per cent decline in 2009.
Prediction, the Nats will try to attach themselves to any good news this year like a bucket full of leeches, and claim the credit. They don’t deserve any. When the economy eventually claws its way back to health, it won’t be because of anything that this worse-than-useless government has done. What has been their contribution? Tax cuts that spectacularly failed to “kick start the economy” and bring us “roaring out of recsssion” (because – pssst! – tax cuts don’t cause growth). Cuts to jobs, public spending, and saving that did more harm than good. Oh – and the cycleway. Let’s not forget the cycleway.
Any good news we have seen recently, or will see in the near future, is due to external factors, not the Nats. Continuing the article above:
The good news stemmed mainly from historically high food prices and a one-off hit from the Rugby World Cup. New Zealand commodity prices continued to climb, the Treasury found, with one measure, the ANZ Commodity Price Index, at its highest since it began in 1986. Further increases were possible early this year as dairy prices in two global DairyTrade auctions showing a combined increase in sale price of 8.5 per cent. Rugby World Cup – “a key one-off event” – would boost the economy across the September and December quarters.
Like the anticipated blip from the RWC, the other occasional source of good news is returns on investments set up by previous Labour governments. Last week it was announced that the Government’s five-month operating deficit had been nearly halved due to the strongly performing NZ Super Fund and a turnaround in ACC’s accounts. (Same story last year.)
So keep it mind people, when you head out to vote this year. The NZ economy will eventually recover. Not because of the Nats, but in spite of them.