Final Roy Morgan poll
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10:15 am, November 7th, 2008 - 43 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls -
Tags: roy morgan
The final Roy Morgan poll is out and the Left (LPG+M) has it by a nose with 62 seats out of a 122 seat Parliament. The Greens will be happy with 10% – that puts them in a strong negotiating position after the election and gives a 17 seat voting bloc in conjunction with the Maori Party.
A bit of a worry to see NZ First on 4.5% – I’d like to see them out of Parliament, or failing that blocking a hard-right National/ACT government. Having NZ First on 4.5% is the worst possible scenario.
Roy Morgan was the most accurate poll at predicting the last election result. We’ll have to wait until tomorrow night to see if they’ve done it again but one thing’s for sure – this election is still anyone’s game.
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Does anyone really think Act is at 4%? RM may have got it right last time but that seems a bit high. Same goes for NZF
Good news! And I have to say, I’m not particularly surprised.
However, can someone who understands the finer details of MMP please discuss the effect of 4.5% of the vote going to NZF, assuming they don’t win an electorate seat?
Labour + Greens is my dream result 😀
insider – Roy Morgan looks a bit out on it’s own, but I think the pattern across all the polls is pretty clear – 64 seats to National/Act/United. But there could still be a late swing either way, and I think the extent of overhangs will also play a factor. Maori/Progressive/United could all get overhangs … or not.
The biggest wildcard will be Winston, I think.
ACT at 4% – only if the National right wing feel Key is secure and they want to vote where their hearts really lie.
NZF at 4.5% – Winston ‘Lazarus’ Peters about to rise from the dead again? I hope not.
Looks like Slippery John gets to play – one seat majority to National/ACT/UF.
Insider
At the risk of going against my own advice and commenting on polls – those were my thoughts as well – we’ll all know what the reality is come late on Saturday night.
I have 58-57 to NUFACT. This gives the balance of power to the Maori Party. Winston is just about there, if he got to 5% it would be:
National: 51
Act: 5
UF: 1
Labour: 41
Greens: 12
Prog: 1
NZ First would have 6, Maori Party have 5 in a 122 seat Parliament. NUFACT could hold a majority if the Maori Party (or Winston) decided to back them.
Patrick – if 4.5% vote for Winston and no one from NZF wins an electorate seat then the votes are wasted. So the winner only has to muster 47.75% of the vote to get 60 seats [putting aside the effect of overhang seats].
For the left it’s a catch 22. If you want a Labour led government you must vote for Labour not NZF yet if NZF go down to oblivion it makes it easier for Key to form a government.
insider – RM over-estimated the minor parties last time but got the gap between the major parties about right.
Milo
yeah it seems to show the blocs as matching other polls but the split quite different. Labour will be depressed if they really are under 35%.
Patrick: From http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/mmp-faq.html :
“What happens to the votes cast for a party that doesn’t cross the threshold?
Party votes cast for parties that don’t cross the threshold are disregarded in the allocation process which uses a mathematical formula and not percentages to share out the seats. They are not in any way reallocated to the other parties.”
So the remaining votes are considered to be 100% as far as the allocation goes.
Some other implementations distribute those votes to the other parties on a proportional basis – with much the same result.
However, this does raise an interesting issue – the Nat/UF/ACT coalition could end up governing with less than 50% of the party vote if this happens. This, for those who’ve not been paying attention, has been the spectre which DPF and others have raised in discussions on moral mandates and such, but they thought it might happen on the left due to the overhang. I wonder how the tune will change if it favours them.
L
think this is going to be tight
Bah, stupidness. That’s Lew above, not PB. Though I’m sure he’d agree 🙂
L
that was Lew, I’ll delete my cookie
This poll probably did not concentrate on Wigram whcih is where Anderton is expected to take the electorate seat so can we safely include one more for Labour?
I agree, Lampie, all signs point to this being a very tight election.
PB: I’m-a just going to deny cookies from now on.
L
Janice. Jim Anderton = Progressives. He was included – see original post.
Oh come on Tane, you really think they’d be a moderating influence?
If they ended up in a position to influence a National-led government, Winston would be off in a corner stroking his baubles and Ron Mark will be goose stepping up and down the lobbies shouting “give ’em a taste of cold steel”.
All Key needs to do is give them both a Ministerial post (anything with a grand title for Winston – MInister of State outside Cabinet would even do, and Associate Defence, Police and / or Corrections for Mark) and they’d roll over and say yes to anything. The one proviso would be that any hard right policies didn’t impact superannuitants.
Whereas Winston is now seen as too discredited to be given any real power, the one you need to be frightened of is Mark. Imagine, for instance, if he was made Minister of Corrections.
No, there’s only one direction for them that will preserve the things you believe in (and many of the things I believe in too) and that’s out.
The poll is out of date really. So are others in the ‘poll of polls’. The media generally ignore when people were polled, which is essential info at this stage.
There will probably be some small late swings: to ACT from National (voters believing the Nats will win and “firming up” the future government), away from NZ First to god knows where (voters writing them off), away from the Maori Party on the party vote (tactical) and from Labour to the Greens.
The crucial swing between National and Labour is anyone’s guess – we can all repeat talking points I suppose. My guess is turnout will keep Labour’s core vote up. A general assumption that National will win is not good for the Nats.
Final prediction: 124 seats, National/ACT/UF 62, the rest 62, no Winston.
Key makes a victory speech, but in Te Reo.
2 weeks later, Greens gain a seat on specials, Helen back in 😉
Blogosphere self-combusts.
NZF being almost at the threshold is, as Tane says, worst-case scenario. For Labour it’s now a grim three-horned dilemma:
1. implore Labour voters (but not too many) to support NZ First in order to get them over the threshold
2. implore NZF voters to abandon NZF and vote Labour – this is what they’re doing, and it appears to not be working
3. stay the course and say nothing, probably ending up with the worst-case solution
L
Rex, there’s probably a bit of truth in what you say, but my point is a Parliament with NZ First in it will most likely deny Nat/ACT/UF a majority of seats.
Even if the Right managed to stitch a government together their ability to erode social democratic institutions would be severely limited. NZ First are a lot of things, but they’re no friend to the hardline neoliberals.
Fully agreed though that the ideal solution in NZ First out of Parliament, I’d just rather they didn’t waste too many party votes in the protest.
My only question about this poll, is that Nationals support seems too low. But nevertheless, this is the one poll that differs from the other four. Here Labour has a real chance at government if they can convince the Maori party to side with them. That is not a guarantee. But this is the poll that every National-Act support will squirm. Because then the right is dependent on the Maori.
But at the same time, Maori Party supporting a Labour-led government is not guaranteed. They could well support National.
I actually don’t find the Morgan poll accurate but we’ll see. I’m still tipping National-Act-United Future to govern without the need for Maori Party support.
—
I do have a further question. If at the of Saturday this is the result. Then what happens? Because Labour tends to do better via special votes and votes internationally.
Lew, how about the Rimutaka seat, maybe Labour sacrifices the seat to keep NZF in? Anyone notice that on this poll both chances of government are a four-headed monster?
Thanks Ron. Rushing in and out one misses things and the graph is new since I was here last. What a good one!
When one looks at the pensioners enjoying their Gold Card benefits it is very hard to see Winston missing out. I would put my money on him getting in and the whole picture changing in favour of a Labour coalition.
Alternatively what happens, for example, if the Maori Party do go into coalition with National but sometime over the next year have a spat and leave National as Winston did in 1996?
Will Key just become a lame duck until the next election or can we call for new elections? 🙂
Gingercrush
All votes are equal. All votes are counted. Specials are no different.
Saturday will be around 90% of the result. Not the final one. (See 1999)
GC: As GS notes, the Greens tend to do best. But the answer is that a government can’t be formed until all the votes are counted in any case, and if it’s hung tomorrow night, all will wait with bated breath until the specials come in.
L
Vinsin: Labour have ruled out throwing Rimutaka to Mark, and rightly so, since he’s no friend of theirs.
L
Perhaps Maori Party voters should be considering voting NZF over the Maori Party, simply because all of the Maori Party’s seats will be electorate seats, unless they do extremely poorly in the electorate vote, or extremely well in the party vote. Both of these scenarios are unlikely.
So, basically, any party vote for the Maori Party is a wasted vote. If NZF is really on 4.5%, it would be better to vote for them rather than the Maori Party, if you are anti-National Maori Party voter, yet can’t stomach Labour. If NZF doesn’t make it it won’t make any difference, and you will have lost nothing. If NZF does make it, then it would either moderate a National-led minority government, or provide a Labour-led minority bloc with a plurality, which the MP could then act as veto on.
Janice: Alternatively what happens, for example, if the Maori Party do go into coalition with National but sometime over the next year have a spat and leave National as Winston did in 1996?
Will Key just become a lame duck until the next election or can we call for new elections? 🙂
Depends if they can retain confidence. If not, it’s a snap election.
L
Lew, mark might not be a friend but the %4.5 nzf has in a lot of polls is, maybe they change their mind on their friends – unlikely i know, it really just depends on how close Labour think it’s really going to be. I still actually think NZF is going to get back in, the pensioners don’t like the way Winston’s been treated for the last six months and i imagine they’ll come out in support of him.
While I doubt Key has ability to hold together a government containing ACT, UF and the Maori Party, I’m quite hesitant to say so, given that after 2005 all the right wingers were saying Helen would only be able to hold the current government together for a single term.
History will tell.
There is NO undercurrent in Rimutaka seat for NZ1. I’ve only heard it here, not there.
If anything the local rag’s pro blue (if anyone reads it)
Hipkins will piss in – and a good thing to, we need some young blood.
Except an electoral vote for Winston in Tauranga, a vote for NZ1 is either wasted or a vote for the right.
Keep it clean vote red or green (I just made that up – must be the Heineken talking!)
I think a Ron Mark victory in Rimutaka could work out well – not that I agree with his politics. But if Winston could be convinced to forgo any ministerial position in favour of Mark, as a reward for his win, then Winston’s not in the govt, we have three years of populist “tough on crime” from Mark, and Labour could dissasociate themselves with the policy so as not to offend their base (too much).
Of course, it could be a nightmare…
Bill Brown is right.
Once more: this is NOT the most recent poll. No poll in the run-up has had NZ First at 5% (including this one). On average, at least one or two polls should be showing that, for NZ First to have a chance.
They will not get 5%. To vote tactically (quite apart from all other issues) for Winston is foolish.
We all get one party vote. No second chance. So just vote for the party you like best.
Yeah I can’t see Ron Mark taking Rimutaka whatsoever. I think Clark should have said to her supporters give your electorate vote in Tauranga to Peters. Even then it would have been tight. I don’t see Peters making 5% tomorrow night. 3.5% or so is more likely but clearly not enough to get any sears in Parliament.
I also wonder about the party vote. I see the party vote increase for National-Act coming from Auckland and North Shore. South and West to Labour. I think National-Act will get more support from Christchurch than they did previously. Dunedin and Wellington will largely stay with Labour. But its the provinces that I think will give additional votes to National-Act and which I think will prove the real edge on election day.
Patrick: “While I doubt Key has ability to hold together a government containing ACT, UF and the Maori Party, I’m quite hesitant to say so”
If National has established one thing over the years it is that it cannot work with other parties except perhaps Peter Dunne, who gets into bed with anyone provided the price is right.
Rex W,
Not being too wishful but I wonder have you noticed the wee changes apparent in nzf provincial ads… could, just could (bedrock = RM) tip itself over the line..
Interesting poll puts Labour ahead here.
http://www.tv3.co.nz/Default.aspx
Pita Paraone was on the wireless this evening saying that the race in Rimutaka is between Ron Mark and `the National candidate’, and `the Labour candidate’ was running a distant third.
I haven’t seen any polls of this electorate, but it goes against the conventional wisdom and sounds like a fairly big kite being flown by the NZ Firsties up there in the Hutt.
L
two items re Rimutuka and one of general interest
http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/11/national-muzzles/
http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/11/our-poll-ron-mark-well-behind-in-crucial-rimutaka/
http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/11/text-poll/
Sarah
That to me seems closer to what actually will happen, just a sneak feeling
Wonder how many have done that tv3 poll?
It’s bias of course