An interesting poll
Written By:
- Date published:
10:27 pm, September 13th, 2013 - 223 comments
Categories: labour, national -
Tags:
I’m not usually one to comment on individual polls as I can’t see that a single poll means much. Given that each of our media outlets only seeks to poll once every blue moon, their data isn’t great. In fact the only poll that is frequent enough to get useful information is the one not sponsored by any of our media – the Roy Morgan.
Fresh from being the most accurate at the Aussie election (as they frequently are here too), they’ve got their latest NZ poll out.
About 3 polls ago there was a rogue one, where National sky-rocketed, Labour & Greens sank, and woe was betide. But one poll should not a story make. Grab a pinch of salt with every one.
Since then we’ve well and truly returned to trend. National are declining – now down to 41%. Labour (slowly!) increasing – now up to 32.5%. Greens have been largely flat, but up quite a bit over the last 3 polls – 15%. Yes that’s right 47.5% to 41%. Leading to Morgan’s conclusion:
If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.
A leaderless Labour with Greens help would apparently defeat John Key.
On top of that undecideds are up to 6% – a high. It’s quite likely that a lot of undecideds are people who voted National who are now unhappy with the government, but can’t quite go as far as voting for someone else – yet. NZ First are at 6.5%, so may yet have a significant part to play.
So Cunliffe or Robertson – whoever wins – they’ll be starting from a good spot.
223 comments on “An interesting poll ”
- Comments are now closed
- Comments are now closed
CommentsOpinions
Recent Comments
FeedsPartyGovtMedia
- The 1 Good Thing Left In Journalism
Hi,It’s almost Christmas Day which means it is almost my birthday, where you will find me whimpering in the corner clutching a warm bottle of Baileys.If you’re out of ideas for presents (and truly desperate) then it is possible to gift a full Webworm subscription to a friend (or enemy) ...3 hours ago - Bernard’s Picks ‘n’ Mixes for Monday, December 23
This morning’s six standouts for me at 6.30am include:Rachel Helyer Donaldson’s scoop via RNZ last night of cuts to maternity jobs in the health system;Maddy Croad’s scoop via The Press-$ this morning on funding cuts for Christchurch’s biggest food rescue charity;Benedict Collins’ scoop last night via 1News on a last-minute ...4 hours ago - 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #51
A listing of 25 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 15, 2024 thru Sat, December 21, 2024. Based on feedback we received, this week's roundup is the first one published soleley by category. We are still interested in ...12 hours ago - Dance Magic
Well, I've been there, sitting in that same chairWhispering that same prayer half a million timesIt's a lie, though buried in disciplesOne page of the Bible isn't worth a lifeThere's nothing wrong with youIt's true, it's trueThere's something wrong with the villageWith the villageSomething wrong with the villageSongwriters: Andrew Jackson ...24 hours ago - Government Forces Universities to Enforce “Free Speech” While Limiting Universities̵...
ACT would like to dictate what universities can and can’t say. We knew it was coming. It was outlined in the coalition agreement and has become part of Seymour’s strategy of “emphasising public funding” to prevent people from opposing him and his views—something he also uses to try and de-platform ...24 hours ago - Fact brief – Are we heading into an ‘ice age’?
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Are we heading ...2 days ago
- As Our Power Lessens: Published
So the Solstice has arrived – Summer in this part of the world, Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. And with it, the publication my new Norse dark-fantasy piece, As Our Power Lessens at Eternal Haunted Summer: https://eternalhauntedsummer.com/issues/winter-solstice-2024/as-our-power-lessens/ As previously noted, this one is very ‘wyrd’, and Northern Theory of Courage. ...2 days ago - By Any Other Name.
The Natural Choice: As a starter for ten percent of the Party Vote, “saving the planet” is a very respectable objective. Young voters, in particular, raised on the dire (if unheeded) warnings of climate scientists, and the irrefutable evidence of devastating weather events linked to global warming, vote Green. After ...2 days ago - Bernard’s last Saturday Soliloquy for 2024
The Government cancelled 60% of Kāinga Ora’s new builds next year, even though the land for them was already bought, the consents were consented and there are builders unemployed all over the place. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political ...2 days ago - Bernard’s Picks ‘n’ Mixes for Saturday, December 21
Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on UnsplashEvery morning I get up at 3am to go around the traps of news sites in Aotearoa and globally. I pick out the top ones from my point of view and have been putting them into my Dawn Chorus email, which goes out with a podcast. ...2 days ago - 2024 OIA stats
Over on Kikorangi Newsroom's Marc Daalder has published his annual OIA stats. So I thought I'd do mine: 82 OIA requests sent in 2024 7 posts based on those requests 20 average working days to receive a response Ministry of Justice was my most-requested entity, ...3 days ago - Climate Change: A perverse incentive
The government published its first Biennial Transparency Report under the Paris Agreement yesterday, and the media has correctly noted that it is missing any plan to actually meet our target. While it hypes domestic emissions reductions so far - which have been good, but will likely get worse thanks to ...3 days ago
- Economic Bulletin December 2024
Welcome to the December 2024 Economic Bulletin. We have two monthly features in this edition. In the first, we discuss what the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update from Treasury and the Budget Policy Statement from the Minister of Finance tell us about the fiscal position and what to ...3 days ago - NZCTU make submission in opposition to Treaty Principles Bill
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi have submitted against the controversial Treaty Principles Bill, slamming the Bill as a breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi and an attack on tino rangatiratanga and the collective rights of Tangata Whenua. “This Bill seeks to legislate for Te Tiriti o Waitangi principles that are ...3 days ago
- ZB’s Power Couple
I don't knowHow to say what's got to be saidI don't know if it's black or whiteThere's others see it redI don't get the answers rightI'll leave that to youIs this love out of fashionOr is it the time of yearAre these words distraction?To the words you want to hearSongwriters: ...3 days ago - Austerity thumps GDP most since 1991
Our economy has experienced its worst recession since 1991. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, December 20 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast above and the daily Pick ‘n’ Mix below ...3 days ago
- Weekly Roundup 20-December-2024
Twas the Friday before Christmas and all through the week we’ve been collecting stories for our final roundup of the year. As we start to wind down for the year we hope you all have a safe and happy Christmas and new year. If you’re travelling please be safe on ...3 days ago - The Hoon around the year to December 20, 2024
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the year’s news with: on climate. Her book of the year was Tim Winton’s cli-fi novel Juice and she also mentioned Mike Joy’s memoir The Fight for Fresh Water. ...3 days ago
- The baby-boomers’ last gasp
The Government can head off to the holidays, entitled to assure itself that it has done more or less what it said it would do. The campaign last year promised to “get New Zealand back on track.” When you look at the basic promises—to trim back Government expenditure, toughen up ...3 days ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51 2024
Open access notables An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment: Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance ...4 days ago
- Join us at 5pm for 2024’s last Hoon
Photo by Mauricio Fanfa on UnsplashKia oraCome and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm today.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news with myself , plus regular guests and , ...4 days ago - Christmas Gifts: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
“Like you said, I’m an unreconstructed socialist. Everybody deserves to get something for Christmas.”“ONE OF THOSE had better be for me!” Hannah grinned, fascinated, as Laurie made his way, gingerly, to the bar, his arms full of gift-wrapped packages.“Of course!”, beamed Laurie. Depositing his armful on the bar-top and selecting ...4 days ago
- GDP Figures No Christmas Present for New Zealand
Data released by Statistics New Zealand today showed a significant slowdown in the economy over the past six months, with GDP falling by 1% in September, and 1.1% in June said CTU Economist Craig Renney. “The data shows that the size of the economy in GDP terms is now smaller ...4 days ago
- Cheeseburgers and Stunt Monkeys
One last thing before I quitI never wanted any moreThan I could fit into my headI still remember every single word you saidAnd all the shit that somehow came along with itStill, there's one thing that comforts meSince I was always caged and now I'm freeSongwriters: David Grohl / Georg ...4 days ago - MSD rejecting 220 pleas for food grants each day
Sparse offerings outside a Te Kauwhata church. Meanwhile, the Government is cutting spending in ways that make thousands of hungry children even hungrier, while also cutting funding for the charities that help them. It’s also doing that while winding back new building of affordable housing that would allow parents to ...4 days ago
- The Wing Parties’ Economic Policies.
It is difficult to make sense of the Luxon Coalition Government’s economic management.This end-of-year review about the state of economic management – the state of the economy was last week – is not going to cover the National Party contribution. Frankly, like every other careful observer, I cannot make up ...4 days ago - Back on Track
This morning I awoke to the lovely news that we are firmly back on track, that is if the scale was reversed.NZ ranks low in global economic comparisonsNew Zealand's economy has been ranked 33rd out of 37 in an international comparison of which have done best in 2024.Economies were ranked ...4 days ago - Book Review: How Big Things Get Done
This is a guest post by George Weeks, reviewing a book called How Big Things Get Done by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner Want to know how to do something big? Ask someone who has done it before! Professor Bent Flyvbjerg has spent his career studying megaprojects. In 2023, ...4 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On Why We Can’t Survive Two More Years Of This
Remember those silent movies where the heroine is tied to the railway tracks or going over the waterfall in a barrel? Finance Minister Nicola Willis seems intent on portraying herself as that damsel in distress. According to Willis, this country’s current economic problems have all been caused by the spending ...4 days ago - Dragging our way towards the finish line, the end of this year can’t come soon enough for many…
Similar to the cuts and the austerity drive imposed by Ruth Richardson in the 1990’s, an era which to all intents and purposes we’ve largely fiddled around the edges with fixing in the time since – over, to be fair, several administrations – whilst trying our best it seems to ...5 days ago - Handling Democracy.
String-Pulling in the Dark: For the democratic process to be meaningful it must also be public. WITH TRUST AND CONFIDENCE in New Zealand’s politicians and journalists steadily declining, restoring those virtues poses a daunting challenge. Just how daunting is made clear by comparing the way politicians and journalists treated New Zealanders ...5 days ago
- Open letter to the Minister of Dwindling Finances
Dear Nicola Willis, thank you for letting us know in so many words that the swingeing austerity hasn't worked.By in so many words I mean the bit where you said, Here is a sea of red ink in which we are drowning after twelve months of savage cost cutting and ...5 days ago - Open Government: The joke ends
The Open Government Partnership is a multilateral organisation committed to advancing open government. Countries which join are supposed to co-create regular action plans with civil society, committing to making verifiable improvements in transparency, accountability, participation, or technology and innovation for the above. And they're held to account through an Independent ...5 days ago
- An unusual sort of press conference
Today I tuned into something strange: a press conference that didn’t make my stomach churn or the hairs on the back of my neck stand on end. Which was strange, because it was about the torture of children. It was the announcement by Erica Stanford — on her own, unusually ...5 days ago - This substack has talked about this government’s seeming corruption & pro-corporate issues...
This is a must watch, and puts on brilliant and practical display the implications and mechanics of fast-track law corruption and weakness.CLICK HERE: LINK TO WATCH VIDEOOur news media as it is set up is simply not equipped to deal with the brazen disinformation and corruption under this right wing ...5 days ago - NZCTU: Minister needs to listen to the evidence on engineered stone ban
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi Acting Secretary Erin Polaczuk is welcoming the announcement from Minister of Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden that she is opening consultation on engineered stone and is calling on her to listen to the evidence and implement a total ban of the product. “We need ...5 days ago
- Wednesday 18 December
The Government has announced a 1.5% increase in the minimum wage from 1 April 2025, well below forecast inflation of 2.5%. Unions have reacted strongly and denounced it as a real terms cut. PSA and the CTU are opposing a new round of staff cuts at WorkSafe, which they say ...5 days ago
- Can the government change its mind on the ferries?
The decision to unilaterally repudiate the contract for new Cook Strait ferries is beginning to look like one of the stupidest decisions a New Zealand government ever made. While cancelling the ferries and their associated port infrastructure may have made this year's books look good, it means higher costs later, ...5 days ago
- Notes from Afar: Will Luxon Attend Waitangi Day? And Opposition Calls Out Nicola Willis for “C...
Hi there! I’ve been overseas recently, looking after a situation with a family member. So apologies if there any less than focused posts! Vanuatu has just had a significant 7.3 earthquake. Two MFAT staff are unaccounted for with local fatalities.It’s always sad to hear of such things happening.I think of ...5 days ago - Member’s morning
Today is a special member's morning, scheduled to make up for the government's theft of member's days throughout the year. First up was the first reading of Greg Fleming's Crimes (Increased Penalties for Slavery Offences) Amendment Bill, which was passed unanimously. Currently the House is debating the third reading of ...5 days ago
- Going Backwards
We're going backwardsIgnoring the realitiesGoing backwardsAre you counting all the casualties?We are not there yetWhere we need to beWe are still in debtTo our insanitiesSongwriter: Martin Gore Read more ...5 days ago - Blaming Treasury & Labour, Willis looks for even more Austerity
Willis blamed Treasury for changing its productivity assumptions and Labour’s spending increases since Covid for the worsening Budget outlook. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, December 18 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast above ...5 days ago
- December-24 AT Board Meeting
Today the Auckland Transport board meet for the last time this year. For those interested (and with time to spare), you can follow along via this MS Teams link from 10am. I’ve taken a quick look through the agenda items to see what I think the most interesting aspects are. ...5 days ago
- The Making of a Mental Health Rockstar
Hi,If you’re a New Zealander — you know who Mike King is. He is the face of New Zealand’s battle against mental health problems. He can be loud and brash. He raises, and is entrusted with, a lot of cash. Last year his “I Am Hope” charity reported a revenue ...5 days ago - It could have been worse
Probably about the only consolation available from yesterday’s unveiling of the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is that it could have been worse. Though Finance Minister Nicola Willis has tightened the screws on future government spending, she has resisted the calls from hard-line academics, fiscal purists and fiscal hawks ...5 days ago
- The Deep Divisions of Local Government
The right have a stupid saying that is only occasionally true:When is democracy not democracy? When it hasn’t been voted on.While not true in regards to branches of government such as the judiciary, it’s a philosophy that probably should apply to recently-elected local government councillors. Nevertheless, this concept seemed to ...5 days ago - Willis’ austerity strategy just isn’t working
Long story short: the Government’s austerity policy has driven the economy into a deeper and longer recession that means it will have to borrow $20 billion more over the next four years than it expected just six months ago. Treasury’s latest forecasts show the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s fiscal strategy of ...6 days ago
- Sabin 33 #7 – Are solar projects hurting farmers and rural communities?
On November 1, 2024 we announced the publication of 33 rebuttals based on the report "Rebutting 33 False Claims About Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicles" written by Matthew Eisenson, Jacob Elkin, Andy Fitch, Matthew Ard, Kaya Sittinger & Samuel Lavine and published by the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia ...6 days ago
- Join us for a pop-up Hoon at 5pm on HYEFU
6 days ago - ‘Ideas Worth Saving’: A Call for Papers
Some years ago, I found myself pondering the power of literature to endure. Or at least the power of some of it to endure, while the rest vanishes in mere decades: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2019/08/07/look-on-my-works-ye-mighty-and-despair-the-literary-future/. I have similarly had fun with the subject in some of my short stories, such as Another Alexandria ...6 days ago - Corrections is torturing prisoners again
In 1998, in the wake of the Paremoremo Prison riot, the Department of Corrections established the "Behaviour Management Regime". Prisoners were locked in their cells for 22 or 23 hours a day, with no fresh air, no exercise, no social contact, no entertainment, and in some cases no clothes and ...6 days ago
- HYEFU and BPS data shows New Zealand is way off track
New data released by the Treasury shows that the economic policies of this Government have made things worse in the year since they took office, said NZCTU Economist Craig Renney. “Our fiscal indicators are all heading in the wrong direction – with higher levels of debt, a higher deficit, and ...6 days ago
- “Better economic management”
At the 2023 election, National basically ran on a platform of being better economic managers. So how'd that turn out for us? In just one year, they've fucked us for two full political terms: The government's books are set to remain deeply in the red for the near term ...6 days ago
- Shameless, clueless
AUSTERITYText within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedMy spreadsheet insists This pain leads straight to glory (File not found) Read more ...6 days ago - Minimum wage ‘increase’ is an effective cut
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi are saying that the Government should do the right thing and deliver minimum wage increases that don’t see workers fall further behind, in response to today’s announcement that the minimum wage will only be increased by 1.5%, well short of forecast inflation. “With inflation forecast ...6 days ago
- Crazy ’bout a Sharp-dressed Man
Oh, I weptFor daysFilled my eyesWith silly tearsOh, yeaBut I don'tCare no moreI don't care ifMy eyes get soreSongwriters: Paul Rodgers / Paul Kossoff. Read more ...6 days ago - How much should you worry about a collapse of the Atlantic conveyor belt?
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob Henson In this aerial view, fingers of meltwater flow from the melting Isunnguata Sermia glacier descending from the Greenland Ice Sheet on July 11, 2024, near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. According to the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE), the ...6 days ago
- 8% ACT Party Creates One Ring To Rule Them All
In August, I wrote an article about David Seymour1 with a video of his testimony, to warn that there were grave dangers to his Ministry of Regulation:David Seymour's Ministry of Slush Hides Far Greater RisksWhy Seymour's exorbitant waste of taxpayers' money could be the least of concernThe money for Seymour ...6 days ago - When austerity worsens public debt & cuts GDP
Willis is expected to have to reveal the bitter fiscal fruits of her austerity strategy in the HYEFU later today. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/TheKakaMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, December 17 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast ...6 days ago
- Govt to double number of toll roads
On Friday the government announced it would double the number of toll roads in New Zealand as well as make a few other changes to how toll roads are used in the country. The real issue though is not that tolling is being used but the suggestion it will make ...6 days ago
- Luxon’s pre-emptive strike
The Prime Minister yesterday engaged in what looked like a pre-emptive strike designed to counter what is likely to be a series of depressing economic statistics expected before the end of the week. He opened his weekly post-Cabinet press conference with a recitation of the Government’s achievements. “It certainly has ...6 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On The Coalition’s Empty Gestures, And Abortion Refusal As The New Slavery
This whooping cough story from south Auckland is a good example of the coalition government’s approach to social need – spend money on urging people to get vaccinated but only after you’ve cut the funding to where they could get vaccinated. This has been the case all year with public ...6 days ago
- More public service contempt of parliament
Back in 2023 the New Zealand Council for Civil Liberties raised concerns about the inherent conflict of interest involved in public service agencies supporting parliamentary select committees. Our parliament is run on a shoestring, so depends on the public service for advice. But public service agencies work for Ministers, not ...7 days ago
- If There Is A God
And if there is a GodI know he likes to rockHe likes his loud guitarsHis spiders from MarsAnd if there is a GodI know he's watching meHe likes what he seesBut there's trouble on the breezeSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan Read more ...7 days ago - A Lipstick Government
Here’s a quick round up of today’s political news:1. MORE FOOD BANKS, CHARITIES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE SHELTERS AND YOUTH SOCIAL SERVICES SET TO CLOSE OR SCALE BACK AROUND THE COUNTRY AS GOVT CUTS FUNDINGSome of Auckland's largest foodbanks are warning they may need to close or significantly reduce food parcels after ...7 days ago - NZCTU open letter to Treasury on undue restrictions on restricted briefings
Iain Rennie, CNZMSecretary and Chief Executive to the TreasuryDear Secretary, Undue restrictions on restricted briefings This week, the Treasury barred representatives from four organisations, including the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi, from attending the restricted briefing for the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update. We had been ...7 days ago
- Why you won’t hear me advocate for electric cars
This is a guest post by Tim Adriaansen, a community, climate, and accessibility advocate. I won’t shut up about climate breakdown, and whenever possible I try to shift the focus of a climate conversation towards solutions. But you’ll almost never hear me give more than a passing nod to ...1 week ago
- Coalition forced to back down on tolling Pahiatua track
A grassroots backlash has forced a backdown from Brown, but he is still eyeing up plenty of tolls for other new roads. And the pressure is on Willis to ramp up the Government’s austerity strategy. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy ...1 week ago
- Thank You
Hi all,I'm pretty overwhelmed by all your messages and emails today; thank you so very much.As much as my newsletter this morning was about money, and we all need to earn money, it was mostly about world domination if I'm honest. 😉I really hate what’s happening to our country, and ...1 week ago - 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #50
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 8, 2024 thru Sat, December 14, 2024. Listing by Category Like last week's summary this one contains the list of articles twice: based on categories and based on ...1 week ago
- Making Gravy
I started writing this morning about Hobson’s Pledge, examining the claims they and their supporters make, basically ripping into them. But I kept getting notifications coming through, and not good ones.Each time I looked up, there was another un-subscription message, and I felt a bit sicker at the thought of ...1 week ago - Nothing here but the shadows
Once, long before there was Harry and Meghan and Dodi and all those episodes of The Crown, they came to spend some time with us, Charles and Diana. Was there anyone in the world more glamorous than the Princess of Wales?Dazzled as everyone was by their company, the leader of ...1 week ago - The United Right: the FSU’s Continued Efforts to Undermine Academia
The collective right have a problem.The entire foundation for their world view is antiscientific. Their preferred economic strategies have been disproven. Their whole neoliberal model faces accusations of corporate corruption and worsening inequality. Climate change not only definitely exists, its rapid progression demands an immediate and expensive response in order ...1 week ago
- Showing the Americans how to do it
Just ten days ago, South Korea's president attempted a self-coup, declaring martial law and attempting to have opposition MPs murdered or arrested in an effort to seize unconstrained power. The attempt was rapidly defeated by the national assembly voting it down and the people flooding the streets to defend democracy. ...1 week ago
- 2 Men, 1 Haircut
Hi,“What I love about New Zealanders is that sometimes you use these expressions that as Americans we have no idea what those things mean!"I am watching a 30-something year old American ramble on about how different New Zealanders are to Americans. It’s his podcast, and this man is doing a ...1 week ago
- National’s Greatest Misses 2023-4
National has only been in power for a year, but everywhere you look, its choices are taking New Zealand a long way backwards. In no particular order, here are the National Government's Top 50 Greatest Misses of its first year in power. ...3 days ago - Release: Minister’s plan for tertiary sector a backwards step
Returning to the model that was failing for most polytechnics and Institutes of Technology is not the answer. ...3 days ago
- Release: National buries 1019 planned homes
It’s been revealed that National has cancelled 60 percent of its housing projects planned before mid-2025 amidst housing woes. ...3 days ago
- Release: Rule-Czar bill a right-wing power grab
The Government is quietly undertaking consultation on the dangerous Regulatory Standards Bill over the Christmas period to avoid too much attention. ...3 days ago
- Release: Why not both? Luxon shuns Waitangi celebrations
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is running away from problems of his own creation, with his decision not to go to Waitangi. ...4 days ago
- Govt’s ‘free speech’ legislation stokes fear, not freedom
The Government’s planned changes to the freedom of speech obligations of universities is little more than a front for stoking the political fires of disinformation and fear, placing teachers and students in the crosshairs. ...4 days ago - Release: Nicola Willis spirals country deeper into recession
The economy shrank 1% this quarter and New Zealand has tumbled into the depths of a recession of Nicola Willis’ making. ...4 days ago
- Release: Hikes for company directors but not ordinary Kiwis
Working people are going backwards while company directors are being given huge pay hikes. ...5 days ago
- ECE no place to cut corners
The Ministry of Regulation’s report into Early Childhood Education (ECE) in Aotearoa raises serious concerns about the possibility of lowering qualification requirements, undermining quality and risking worse outcomes for tamariki, whānau, and kaiako. ...5 days ago
- Release: Strengthening Justice Services for New Zealanders
A Bill to modernise the role of Justices of the Peace (JP), ensuring they remain active in their communities and connected with other JPs, has been put into the ballot. ...5 days ago
- Release: Labour will continue fight against destructive projects
Labour will continue to fight unsustainable and destructive projects that are able to leap-frog environment protection under National’s Fast-track Approvals Bill. ...6 days ago
- Green Government will revoke dodgy fast-track projects
The Green Party has warned that a Green Government will revoke the consents of companies who override environmental protections as part of Fast-Track legislation being passed today. ...6 days ago
- Government for the wealthy keeps pushing austerity
The Green Party says the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows how the Government is failing to address the massive social and infrastructure deficits our country faces. ...6 days ago
- Release: Visa changes let migrant workers be paid less
The Government’s latest move to reduce the earnings of migrant workers will not only hurt migrants but it will drive down the wages of Kiwi workers. ...6 days ago
- Release: Nightmare before Christmas for Nicola Willis
With more debt and a larger deficit, Nicola Willis’ reputation is in tatters after her failure to return the Government’s books to surplus. ...6 days ago
- Warning to Fast-Track Applicants – ‘Exploit the Whenua, Face the Consequences’
Te Pāti Māori has this morning issued a stern warning to Fast-Track applicants with interests in mining, pledging to hold them accountable through retrospective liability and to immediately revoke Fast-Track consents under a future Te Pāti Māori government. This warning comes ahead of today’s third reading of the Fast-Track Approvals ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt cuts wages for lowest paid NZers… again
For the second year running, the government has effectively cut wages for the lowest paid workers in New Zealand. ...6 days ago
- Govt’s miserly 1.5% minimum wage will take workers backwards
The Government’s announcement today of a 1.5 per cent increase to minimum wage is another blow for workers, with inflation projected to exceed the increase, meaning it’s a real terms pay reduction for many. ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt shirking responsibility for rate hikes
All the Government has achieved from its announcement today is to continue to push responsibility back on councils for its own lack of action to help bring down skyrocketing rates. ...6 days ago
- Luxon’s ‘localism’ strikes again
The Government has used its final post-Cabinet press conference of the year to punch down on local government without offering any credible solutions to the issues our councils are facing. ...7 days ago
- Release: Govt breaks promise on EV chargers
The Government has failed to keep its promise to ‘super charge’ the EV network, delivering just 292 chargers - less than half of the 670 chargers needed to meet its target. ...7 days ago
- Greens call for end to subsidies for Methanex
The Green Party is calling for the Government to stop subsidising the largest user of the country’s gas supplies, Methanex, following a report highlighting the multi-national’s disproportionate influence on energy prices in Aotearoa. ...7 days ago
- Govt child poverty targets allow for increase in poverty
The Green Party is appalled with the Government’s new child poverty targets that are based on a new ‘persistent poverty’ measure that could be met even with an increase in child poverty. ...1 week ago
- Release: Four weeks annual leave under threat
The Government’s attack on workers continues with news it is scrapping work on the Holidays Act. ...1 week ago
- Govt’s emissions plan for measly 1% reduction
New independent analysis has revealed that the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) will reduce emissions by a measly 1 per cent by 2030, failing to set us up for the future and meeting upcoming targets. ...1 week ago
- Greens stand in solidarity with Whakaata Māori on sad day
The loss of 27 kaimahi at Whakaata Māori and the end of its daily news bulletin is a sad day for Māori media and another step backwards for Te Tiriti o Waitangi justice. ...1 week ago
- Sanctions regime to create more hardship for families
Yesterday the Government passed cruel legislation through first reading to establish a new beneficiary sanction regime that will ultimately mean more households cannot afford the basic essentials. ...1 week ago
- Govt gifts renters housing anxiety for Christmas
Today's passing of the Government's Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill–which allows landlords to end tenancies with no reason–ignores the voice of the people and leaves renters in limbo ahead of the festive season. ...1 week ago
- Release: National Party urged to support modern slavery legislation
Labour is urging the Prime Minister to walk the talk and support legislation combating modern slavery. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour has lost confidence in the Speaker
The Speaker of the New Zealand Parliament made an unprecedented decision on the government amendment to the Fast Track Approvals Bill last night. ...2 weeks ago
- One year on, still no progress on new ferries
Today’s announcement from the Government on its plan for new ferries throws more uncertainty on the future of the country’s rail network. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Nicola Willis’ smaller ferries will cost more
After wasting a year, Nicola Willis has delivered a worse deal for the Cook Strait ferries that will end up being more expensive and take longer to arrive. ...2 weeks ago
- Bill to sanction unlawful occupation of Palestine
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has today launched a Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as the All Out For Gaza rally reaches Parliament. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour fully supports greyhound racing ban
The Government has done the right thing in moving to ban greyhound racing. ...2 weeks ago
- Greyhound racing industry ban marks new era for animal welfare
After years of advocacy, the Green Party is very happy to hear the Government has listened to our collective voices and announced the closure of the greyhound racing industry, by 1 August 2026. ...2 weeks ago
- Rangatahi voices must be centred in Government’s Relationship and Sexuality Education refresh
In response to a new report from ERO, the Government has acknowledged the urgent need for consistency across the curriculum for Relationship and Sexuality Education (RSE) in schools. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt introduces archaic anti-worker legislation
The Green Party is appalled at the Government introducing legislation that will make it easier to penalise workers fighting for better pay and conditions. ...2 weeks ago
- Winston Peters – Kinleith Mill Speech
Thank you for the invitation to speak with you tonight on behalf of the political party I belong to - which is New Zealand First. As we have heard before this evening the Kinleith Mill is proposing to reduce operations by focusing on pulp and discontinuing “lossmaking paper production”. They say that they are currently consulting on the plan to permanently shut ...2 weeks ago - Swarbrick calls on Auckland Mayor to end delay of revival of St James Theatre
Auckland Central MP, Chlöe Swarbrick, has written to Mayor Wayne Brown requesting he stop the unnecessary delays on St James Theatre’s restoration. ...2 weeks ago
- He Ara Anamata: Greens launch Emissions Reduction Plan
Today, the Green Party of Aotearoa proudly unveils its new Emissions Reduction Plan–He Ara Anamata–a blueprint reimagining our collective future. ...2 weeks ago
- Internationally-trained doctors jump at chance to boost health workforce
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says Health New Zealand will move swiftly to support dozens of internationally-trained doctors already in New Zealand on their journey to employment here, after a tripling of sought-after examination places. “The Medical Council has delivered great news for hardworking overseas doctors who want to contribute ...1 day ago - PM appoints business leader to APEC Business Advisory Council
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...3 days ago
- New intelligence oversight appointments
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced four appointments to New Zealand’s intelligence oversight functions. The Honourable Robert Dobson KC has been appointed Chief Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, and the Honourable Brendan Brown KC has been appointed as a Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants. The appointments of Hon Robert Dobson and Hon ...3 days ago
- New housing developments able to progress more quickly
Improvements in the average time it takes to process survey and title applications means housing developments can progress more quickly, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk says. “The government is resolutely focused on improving the building and construction pipeline,” Mr Penk says. “Applications to issue titles and subdivide land are ...3 days ago
- Actions to speed up air travel delivering results
The Government’s measures to reduce airport wait times, and better transparency around flight disruptions is delivering encouraging early results for passengers ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Improving the efficiency of air travel is a priority for the Government to give passengers a smoother, more reliable ...3 days ago
- Ending contracted emergency housing in Rotorua
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...3 days ago
- Vocational education and training decisions support return to regions
The Government will reshape vocational education and training to return decision making to regions and enable greater industry input into work-based learning Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds says. “The redesigned system will better meet the needs of learners, industry, and the economy. It includes re-establishing regional polytechnics that ...3 days ago
- Reducing the environmental impact of synthetic refrigerants
The Government is taking action to better manage synthetic refrigerants and reduce emissions caused by greenhouse gases found in heating and cooling products, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Regulations will be drafted to support a product stewardship scheme for synthetic refrigerants, Ms. Simmonds says. “Synthetic refrigerants are found in a ...3 days ago
- Ngāruawāhia section of Waikato Expressway back to 4 lanes for Christmas
People travelling on State Highway 1 north of Hamilton will be relieved that remedial works and safety improvements on the Ngāruawāhia section of the Waikato Expressway were finished today, with all lanes now open to traffic, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“I would like to acknowledge the patience of road users ...3 days ago
- Appointments to the ENZ board
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds, has announced a new appointment to the board of Education New Zealand (ENZ). Dr Erik Lithander has been appointed as a new member of the ENZ board for a three-year term until 30 January 2028. “I would like to welcome Dr Erik Lithander to the ...4 days ago
- Government to celebrate Waitangi Day around NZ
The Government will have senior representatives at Waitangi Day events around the country, including at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, but next year Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has chosen to take part in celebrations elsewhere. “It has always been my intention to celebrate Waitangi Day around the country with different ...4 days ago
- More gangs added to Gangs Act list
Two more criminal gangs will be subject to the raft of laws passed by the Coalition Government that give Police more powers to disrupt gang activity, and the intimidation they impose in our communities, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. Following an Order passed by Cabinet, from 3 February 2025 the ...4 days ago
- Judicial appointment announced
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Justice Christian Whata as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Whata’s appointment as a Judge of the Court of Appeal will take effect on 1 August 2025 and fill a vacancy created by the retirement of Hon Justice David Goddard on ...4 days ago
- GDP data highlights importance of growth
The latest economic figures highlight the importance of the steps the Government has taken to restore respect for taxpayers’ money and drive economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Data released today by Stats NZ shows Gross Domestic Product fell 1 per cent in the September quarter. “Treasury and most ...4 days ago
- Strengthening Free Speech in Universities
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Minister of Education David Seymour today announced legislation changes to strengthen freedom of speech obligations on universities. “Freedom of speech is fundamental to the concept of academic freedom and there is concern that universities seem to be taking a more risk-averse ...4 days ago
- Launch of Emergency Cellular Priority Service
Police Minister, Mark Mitchell, and Internal Affairs Minister, Brooke van Velden, today launched a further Public Safety Network cellular service that alongside last year’s Cellular Roaming roll-out, puts globally-leading cellular communications capability into the hands of our emergency responders. The Public Safety Network’s new Cellular Priority service means Police, Wellington ...4 days ago
- Minister reopens Mangamuka Gorge
State Highway 1 through the Mangamuka Gorge has officially reopened today, providing a critical link for Northlanders and offering much-needed relief ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“The Mangamuka Gorge is a vital route for Northland, carrying around 1,300 vehicles per day and connecting the Far ...4 days ago
- Funding confirmed for second Ashburton Bridge
The Government has welcomed decisions by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) and Ashburton District Council confirming funding to boost resilience in the Canterbury region, with construction on a second Ashburton Bridge expected to begin in 2026, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering a second Ashburton Bridge to improve resilience and ...4 days ago
- Government boosts support for avian influenza response
The Government is backing the response into high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Otago, Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says. “Cabinet has approved new funding of $20 million to enable MPI to meet unbudgeted ongoing expenses associated with the H7N6 response including rigorous scientific testing of samples at the enhanced PC3 ...4 days ago
- Levelling the playing field for media advertising
Legislation that will repeal all advertising restrictions for broadcasters on Sundays and public holidays has passed through first reading in Parliament today, Media Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “As a growing share of audiences get their news and entertainment from streaming services, these restrictions have become increasingly redundant. New Zealand on ...5 days ago
- Inspector-General of Defence appointed
Today the House agreed to Brendan Horsley being appointed Inspector-General of Defence, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Mr Horsley’s experience will be invaluable in overseeing the establishment of the new office and its support networks. “He is currently Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, having held that role since June 2020. ...5 days ago
- Fire and Emergency New Zealand final levy rates confirmed
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the final regulations for the levy on insurance contracts that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand from July 2026. “Earlier this year the Government agreed to a 2.2 percent increase to the rate of levy. Fire ...5 days ago
- More AML relief on the way for Kiwi businesses
The Government is delivering regulatory relief for New Zealand businesses through changes to the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. “The Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Amendment Bill, which was introduced today, is the second Bill – the other being the Statutes Amendment Bill - that ...5 days ago
- Hawke’s Bay Expressway moving at pace
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed further progress on the Hawke’s Bay Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS), with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board approving funding for the detailed design of Stage 1, paving the way for main works construction to begin in late 2025.“The Government is moving at ...5 days ago
- Government seeks partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned-land
The Government today released a request for information (RFI) to seeking interest in partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned land with low farming and conservation value (excluding National Parks) Forestry Minister Todd McClay announced. “Planting trees on Crown-owned land will drive economic growth by creating more forestry jobs in our regions, providing more wood ...5 days ago
- Wide ranging legislation to make justice system more efficient
Court timeliness, access to justice, and improving the quality of existing regulation are the focus of a series of law changes introduced to Parliament today by Associate Minister of Justice Nicole McKee. The three Bills in the Regulatory Systems (Justice) Amendment Bill package each improve a different part of the ...5 days ago
- Diverse skills in community trust appointments
A total of 41 appointments and reappointments have been made to the 12 community trusts around New Zealand that serve their regions, Associate Finance Minister Shane Jones says. “These trusts, and the communities they serve from the Far North to the deep south, will benefit from the rich experience, knowledge, ...5 days ago
- Torture redress for survivors of the Lake Alice Unit
The Government has confirmed how it will provide redress to survivors who were tortured at the Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital Child and Adolescent Unit (the Lake Alice Unit). “The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care found that many of the 362 children who went through the Lake Alice Unit between 1972 and ...5 days ago
- A busy year in the House
It has been a busy, productive year in the House as the coalition Government works hard to get New Zealand back on track, Leader of the House Chris Bishop says. “This Government promised to rebuild the economy, restore law and order and reduce the cost of living. Our record this ...5 days ago
- Consultation opens on working with engineered stone
“Accelerated silicosis is an emerging occupational disease caused by unsafe work such as engineered stone benchtops. I am running a standalone consultation on engineered stone to understand what the industry is currently doing to manage the risks, and whether further regulatory intervention is needed,” says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister ...5 days ago
- Greater reporting on Treaty settlement commitments
Mehemea he pai mō te tangata, mahia – if it’s good for the people, get on with it. Enhanced reporting on the public sector’s delivery of Treaty settlement commitments will help improve outcomes for Māori and all New Zealanders, Māori Crown Relations Minister Tama Potaka says. Compiled together for the ...5 days ago
- New appointments to the Charities Registration Board
Mr Roger Holmes Miller and Ms Tarita Hutchinson have been appointed to the Charities Registration Board, Community and Voluntary Sector Minister Louise Upston says. “I would like to welcome the new members joining the Charities Registration Board. “The appointment of Ms Hutchinson and Mr Miller will strengthen the Board’s capacity ...5 days ago
- Building consent processing times improve
More building consent and code compliance applications are being processed within the statutory timeframe since the Government required councils to submit quarterly data, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “In the midst of a housing shortage we need to look at every step of the build process for efficiencies ...5 days ago
- Faster access to support through Innovation Fund
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey is proud to announce the first three recipients of the Government’s $10 million Mental Health and Addiction Community Sector Innovation Fund which will enable more Kiwis faster access to mental health and addiction support. “This fund is part of the Government’s commitment to investing in ...5 days ago
- New Zealand to assist Vanuatu on earthquake response
New Zealand is providing Vanuatu assistance following yesterday's devastating earthquake, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. "Vanuatu is a member of our Pacific family and we are supporting it in this time of acute need," Mr Peters says. "Our thoughts are with the people of Vanuatu, and we will be ...5 days ago
- Government takes steps to reduce card fees for Kiwis
The Government welcomes the Commerce Commission’s plan to reduce card fees for Kiwis by an estimated $260 million a year, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.“The Government is relentlessly focused on reducing the cost of living, so Kiwis can keep more of their hard-earned income and live a ...5 days ago
- Review recommends ECE regulation shakeup
Regulation Minister David Seymour has welcomed the Early Childhood Education (ECE) regulatory review report, the first major report from the Ministry for Regulation. The report makes 15 recommendations to modernise and simplify regulations across ECE so services can get on with what they do best – providing safe, high-quality care ...5 days ago
- Offshore Renewable Energy Bill passes first reading
The Government‘s Offshore Renewable Energy Bill to create a new regulatory regime that will enable firms to construct offshore wind generation has passed its first reading in Parliament, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says.“New Zealand currently does not have a regulatory regime for offshore renewable energy as the previous government failed ...6 days ago
- Local Government (Water Services) Bill passes first reading
Legislation to enable new water service delivery models that will drive critical investment in infrastructure has passed its first reading in Parliament, marking a significant step towards the delivery of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly say.“Councils and voters ...6 days ago
- Gene Technology Bill passes first reading
New Zealand is one step closer to reaping the benefits of gene technology with the passing of the first reading of the Gene Technology Bill, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins says. "This legislation will end New Zealand's near 30-year ban on gene technology outside the lab and is ...6 days ago
- How was Maddi Wesche’s final shot put throw not over 20m? A Spinoff investigation
Summer reissue: Was it a false measurement, a full-blown conspiracy or just some mild incompetence? Mad Chapman uncovers the truth of Maddi Wesche’s final throw. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and ...50 minutes ago - Yes, reindeer actually can have red noses – and other fascinating facts about this Christmas icon
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Old, Associate Professor, Biology, Zoology, Animal Science, Western Sydney University Dmitry Chulov, Shutterstock At this time of year, images of reindeer are everywhere. I’ve had a soft spot for reindeer ever since I was a little girl. Doesn’t everyone? ...58 minutes ago - Looking for a summer or longer-term job? Here’s how to find one and avoid being exploited
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grozdana Manalo, Career Services Manager (Education), University of Sydney hedgehog94/Shutterstock Getting casual work over summer, or a part-time job that you might continue once your tertiary course starts, can be a great way to get workplace experience and earn some extra ...58 minutes ago
- Switching off from work can be difficult but taking a proper break is good for your health
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ty Ferguson, Research associate in exercise, nutrition and activity, University of South Australia Peera_Stockfoto/Shutterstock It’s never been easier to stay connected to work. Even when we’re on leave, our phones and laptops keep us tethered. Many of us promise ourselves we ...58 minutes ago
- NZ Media Council upholds complaint against The Spinoff article on Palestine exhibition
The NZ Media Council upheld the complaint under principle four: comment and fact On 5 September 2024, The Spinoff published a brief article titled Made in Palestine, found in 1970s Hastings, which highlighted an upcoming art exhibition featuring photographs of vintage cosmetic products labelled “Made in Palestine.” The piece, described ...1 hour ago
- From smaller homes to screen time, backyard cricket is facing challenges in modern Australia
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kasey Symons, Lecturer of Communication, Sports Media, Deakin University We are well and truly in cricket season. The Australian men’s cricket team is taking centre stage against India in the Border Gavaskar Trophy series while the Big Bash League is underway, as ...1 hour ago
- Hitting the beach? Here are some dangers to watch out for – plus 10 essentials for your first aid ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Woods, Lecturer, Nursing, Faculty of Health, Southern Cross University FTiare/Shutterstock Summer is here and for many that means going to the beach. You grab your swimmers, beach towel and sunscreen then maybe check the weather forecast. Did you think to ...1 hour ago
- You could be stress eating these holidays – or eating your way to stress. 5 tips for the table
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saman Khalesi, Senior Lecturer and Discipline Lead in Nutrition, School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, CQUniversity Australia Dean Clarke/Shutterstock The holiday season can be a time of joy, celebration, and indulgence in delicious foods and meals. However, for many, it ...1 hour ago
- I was asked to come up with my top 5 Aussie films of 2024. It was a difficult task
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia Late Night With The Devil. Maslow Entertainment Marketing is critical to the success of commercial films, and companies will often spend half as much again on top of the ...1 hour ago
- Interactive: What Earth’s 4.54 billion-year history would look like in a single year
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francisco Jose Testa, Lecturer in Earth Sciences (Mineralogy, Petrology & Geochemistry), University of Tasmania The Conversation As a kid, it was tough for me to grasp the massive time scale of Earth’s history. Now, with nearly two decades of experience as ...2 hours ago
- Public service cuts: ‘Rough’ months ahead for those out of work
Laid-off public servants have been slogging it out on a months-long job hunt, and for some that will continue into 2025. ...3 hours ago - Māori ‘under siege’ in 2024, must fight back in 2025 – Ngarewa-Packer
Te Pāti Māori has had to adopt a new way of debating, operating and even thinking in Parliament in response to the Government’s “onslaught” against te ao Māori, co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer says.In an end-of-year interview with Newsroom, the Te Tai Hauauru MP reflected on how 2024 has differed from her ...4 hours ago - The real story behind the Government’s maths narrative
Opinion: The latest Trends in International Mathematics and Science report was announced earlier this month, yet it didn’t get the flurry of media attention and political hand-wringing that typically accompanies these announcements. This might be because it presented good news, or you could argue, no news; the results paint a ...4 hours ago
- Pretty much every common nut in Aotearoa, reviewed and ranked
At long last, The Spinoff shells out for a nut ranking. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today. It recently came to The Spinoff’s attention ...5 hours ago
- What it’s like to be made redundant by the Ministry of Education
I was one of hundreds of people who lost my government job this week. Here’s exactly how it played out. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a ...5 hours ago
- Why can’t I pick up my own dropped phone on a plane?
Summer reissue: One anxiously attentive passenger pays attention to an in-flight safety video, and wonders ‘Why can’t I pick up my own phone?’ The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up ...5 hours ago
- Juggernaut: The ghosts of 1984
Summer reissue: Why do those Lange-Douglas years cast such a long shadow 40 years on? The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today. First published June ...5 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Monday 23 December
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions.The post Newsroom daily quiz, Monday 23 December appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Govt walks away from infrastructure alliance
The Government’s social housing agency has backed out of a billion-dollar infrastructure alliance that would have built about 6000 new homes in Auckland – less than 18 months after signing a five-year extension.Labour says the decision to rip up the contract and sell off existing state houses could lead to ...5 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Monday 23 December
.wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .entry-title { font-size: 1.2em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles .entry-meta { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; margin-top: 0.5em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .entry-meta { font-size: 0.8em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .avatar { height: 25px; width: 25px; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles .post-thumbnail{ margin: 0; margin-bottom: 0.25em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles .post-thumbnail img { height: auto; width: 100%; ...5 hours ago
- Vanuatu quake: Warnings as bad weather threat looms for Port Vila
By , New Zealand’s Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) says impending bad weather for Port Vila is now the most significant post-quake hazard. A tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected to move into Vanuatu waters, bringing heavy rainfall. Authorities have issued warnings to people ...11 hours ago
- Signs of the hīkoi: More than just ‘words on cardboard’
The placards seen at the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti conveyed "huge kōrero with immediacy", expert says: "People know the power of the word." ...20 hours ago
- A final Ode to .. King Luxon
Cosmic CatastropheThe year draws to a close.King Luxon has grown tired of the long eveningsListening to the dreary squabbling of his Triumvirate.He strolls up to the top floor of the PalaceTo consult with his Astronomer Royal.The Royal Telescope scans the skies,And King Luxon stares up into the heavensFrom the terrestrial ...1 day ago
- A hater and an enthusiast review The Royal Free by Carl Shuker
Spinoff editor Mad Chapman and books editor Claire Mabey debate Carl Shuker’s new novel about… an editor. Claire: Hello Mad, you just finished The Royal Free – overall impressions? Mad: Hi Claire, I literally just put the book down and I would have to say my immediate impression is ...1 day ago
- Survive to 25 (December, that is)
Christmas and its buildup are often lonely, hard and full of unreasonable expectations. Here’s how to make it to Jesus’s birthday and find the little bit of joy we all deserve. Have you found this year relentless? Has the latest Apple update “fucked up your life”? Have you lost two ...1 day ago
- All I want for Christmas is modern day slavery legislation
Despite overwhelming public and corporate support, the government has stalled progress on a modern day slavery law. That puts us behind other countries – and makes Christmas a time of tragedy rather than joy, argues Shanti Mathias. Picture the scene on Christmas Day. Everyone replete with nice things to eat, ...1 day ago
- Israeli-American historian describes attacks on Gaza as ‘war of annihilation’
Asia Pacific Report “It looks like Hiroshima. It looks like Germany at the end of World War Two,” says an Israeli-American historian and professor of holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University about the horrifying reality of Gaza. Professor Omer Bartov, has described Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza as an ...1 day ago
- NZ govt plans to make ‘heavy handed’ change to free speech rules for universities
The New Zealand government coalition is tweaking university regulations to curb what it says is an increasingly “risk-averse approach” to free speech. The proposed changes will set clear expectations on how universities should approach freedom of speech issues. Each university will then have to adopt a “freedom of speech statement” ...1 day ago
- Caitlin Johnstone: Where does the aggression really begin?
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone New York prosecutors have charged Luigi Mangione with “murder as an act of terrorism” in his alleged shooting of health insurance CEO Brian Thompson earlier this month. This news comes out at the same time as ...1 day ago
- OECD Report Highlights That More Is Needed
This report reflects that gap in our dealings overseas, and it shows that legislators, the public sector and businesses need to walk the talk. ...2 days ago - Government quietly scraps waste minimisation policies
The government has quietly cancelled plans to improve recycling and roll out a kerbside food scraps composting scheme. ...2 days ago
- MEAA welcomes News MAP funding ‘leg up’ for Australian journalism
Pacific Media Watch The union for Australian journalists has welcomed the delivery by the federal government of more than $150 million to support the sustainability of public interest journalism over the next four years. Combined with the announcement of the revamped News Bargaining Initiative, this could result in up to ...2 days ago
- Transmission Gully partnership breakdown will not hurt future public-private partnerships, Infrastru...
The roads partnership unravelled under a confidential settlement this week, meaning NZTA will now finish off what it had said was incomplete work. ...2 days ago
- Funding cuts to charity particularly felt over Christmas period
The number of people seeking help from Lifeline is expected to increase by 10 to 20 percent over Christmas. ...2 days ago
- Nelson Hospital conditions ‘unbearable’ – staff
One worker says the building is decrepit and falling down around them. ...2 days ago
- Stand by for cricket’s Smash Palace
It’s a little under two months since the White Ferns shocked the cricketing world, deservedly taking home the T20 World Cup. Since then the trophy has had a tour around the country, five of the squad have played in the WBBL in Australia while most others have returned to domestic ...2 days ago
- Early-onset dementia under the microscope
Comment: If we say the word ‘dementia’, many will picture an older person struggling to remember the names of their loved ones, maybe a grandparent living out their final years in an aged care facility. Dementia can also occur in people younger than 65, but it can take time before ...2 days ago
- Keeping the pirates at bay: Should the Australian ‘Blocking Order’ case prompt a discussion in N...
Piracy is a reality of modern life – but copyright law has struggled to play catch-up for as long as the entertainment industry has existed. As far back as 1988, the House of Lords criticised copyright law’s conflict with the reality of human behaviour in the context of burning cassette ...2 days ago
- The Secret Diary of .. Luxon at Xmas
MONDAY“Merry Xmas, and praise the Lord,” said Sheriff Luxon, and smiled for the camera. There was a flash of smoke when the shutter pressed down on the magnesium powder. The sheriff had arranged for a photographer from the Dodge Gazette to attend a ceremony where he handed out food parcels to ...2 days ago
- ‘We were as famous as Tom Cruise’: Craig Parker on 90s Shortland St fandom
As he makes a surprise return to Shortland Street, actor Craig Parker takes us through his life in television. Craig Parker has been a fixture on television in Aotearoa for nearly four decades. He had starring roles in iconic local series like Gloss, Mercy Peak and Diplomatic Immunity, featured in ...2 days ago
A very cheering result. L/Gr would 58 seats, assuming all the minors get at least one seat. 59 if the maori party disappears, along with Peter Dunne. I assume Epsom voters will do as they’re told. National have 50.
That still leaves Winston (8 seats) in the box seat, but 1-2% more to the left takes NZF out of the equation.
Good times!
Dont forget Hone in the equation 🙂
Good times indeed 🙂
Yeah, even if Labour can’t govern outright with the Greens, they can still flex between policies that both the Greens and Mana can vote for, or policies that both the Greens and New Zealand First can vote for. That’s not too bad, assuming the poll that counts is at least this good.
I think a drover’s dog could win this election for the left/greens, so Shearer may even have made it. But with big DC there it’s a shoe-in. As someone told me in the local shop the other day “it has taken Key half the time to become as unpopular as Helen”.
This kind of thinking is extremely unhelpful. The NATs want a 3rd term. They have the MSM and a lot of money on their side. They’ve already announced 1700 public sector jobs for Christchurch. Once the Labour leader is announced they are going to push back at the left all guns firing.
The line against Cunliffe will be that he is divisive, disliked and egocentric.
The line against Robertson will be that he is inexperienced, unsupported by his own membership, and has no economic credibility.
It’s going to be a year long shit fight. Gear up mate.
I know Shonkey and his evil spinners will give it their all. But for me a gut feeling has developed over the last few months-this is now a tired looking and much less popular government. The RMA revolt is a symptom. DC is good. I’m confident, even if we have to parley with Winnie, who won’t have a bar of Key.
Quite right CV. They’re determined and cunning, they’ll do what it takes to retain power.
I know they’re only sideshows, but I expect to be amused by both Hoots’ paranoid spin (it’ll probably involve a lot of dog whistling about the Brown Peril) and Mike “I agree with Matthew” Williams’ increasingly bizarre statements in the coming months…. and McF saying, “They’re not supposed to win this way, they were on a steady course with Shearer.”
It’s going to be a year long shit fight. Gear up mate.
Oh yeah, for sure, and I expect some of the ABC Club to be shit stirring too, putting their own vanity ahead of a Labour Victory. Of course Mallard and Jones making dicks of themselves is sure as sunrise.
you’re making shit up again. Still haven’t bought a dictionary, I guess.
Quoting thine own righteous self on this very topic: shearer was pretty much on track for that.
So I made that up? … but you are partly right – it is shit.
Such big shiny buttons, I can’t resist pushing them.
and apparently I’m the stalker.
Oh and the bit you made up was “They’re not supposed to win this way”.
Fuckwit.
So how do you like it when someone hits back?
Even as a bully you’re inadequate, and you probably know that.
I would be sorry you’re so bitter and defensive McF, you must have been really hurt by something or someone you can’t fight back against, but I know people who’ve had lives that were really shit and I spend my empathy on them.
Ah, making up more shit to deflect from the fact that (at best) the comment you attributed to me was a half-truth.
Focus. Take a breath. Where did I say anything even close to “they’re not supposed to win this way”?
So I’m supposed to respond to your demands? Quibbling over paraphrases is simply jumping through your hoops. Nice try, but I’m not taking the bait – meanwhile, look up your dictionary and see “paraphrase”.
Meanwhile, have you noticed that I’m provoking you ? How do you like it? If you want to play games with me, I’ll play my own too.
Hey, so you don’t want to address the point that you’re an outright and possibly delusional liar. Fair enough. If you want to jack off thinking that you’re Derren Brown, knock yourself out.
And if you’re so illiterate that you don’t know that quotation marks denote a quotation rather than paraphrasing, and that the fact that I never said anything even close to “They’re not supposed to win this way” includes anything that could be reasonably “paraphrased” into that comment, then I think it’s pretty funny. Because I lost my empathy for you when you started making shit up.
So yeah, between this, the TV and cooking dinner, I’m liking it just fine.
Quod erat demonstrandum.
you’re still a lying sack of shit.
big shiny buttons – I can’t resist pushing them, as I said.
Hee hee.
Would-be bullies are utterly bewildered when someone hits back. It’s a lesson they need to be taught.
And you’re probably the only victim of stalking on the planet who wants to “push their buttons” and maintain contact with their stalker.
But I guess you’re in the obsessive/delusional stage and need to up your meds on monday, and dinner’s about cooked, so I’ll be offline for a bit.
No, I want to fight them off. Stalkers want their targets to be helpless and I’m determined to show that I’m not going to accept their terms. I want to show other people how scum like you work and I will not ever be a passive victim.
Flounce away if you like, make your excuses ( dinner’s about cooked ) however you like, but I will not play the game by your rules.
Come after me and I will come after you.
Yeah, I’ll take my meds as I always do. Thanks for pointing that out, thanks for showing that you see that as your advantage.
As a warning to everyone else, DO NOT ever let McF know who you are or where you live – his obsession with individuals is very disturbing. As I’ve said, I’ve known a similar person in the past and it wasn’t good.
Just a note, and I mean to warn anyone locked in a possibly abusive relationship, look out for these key signs:
“I’m sorry, I’ll get better, it won’t happen again”
Followed by:
“I’m sorry, but you made me do this”
“It’s your fault”
“You brought it on yourself”
“You really want it”
“I’m really the victim”
“I’ll forgive you if…”
“Everything would be alright if you…”
“Prove that I’m…”
“If only you…”
These are all tools of not only physical but psychological control. Abuse is a game of psychological control, so resist and escape, do not give in, or signal that you will give in.
Do not play their emotional game by their rules.
… and the risk is, if you are in physical proximity, signalling that you will resist will elevate the abuse to the physical, so that is the time when you have to physically escape.
While cyberspace is a medium in which abuse is facilitated, in real life, the abuse is physical. Abusers always rationalise their behaviour by justifying their abuse in some convoluted way. Anyone, please, who starts hearing those phrases, GET OUT and do not look back.
There are refuges – they’re underfunded, but they exist.
McF shows all the signs of someone who follows that path – I know from first hand experience.
Any chance the Flock and Rhino Show could finish for the night, and you both talk about politics instead?
Weka, I would, but McF seems to want to make it all about his power. I think it matters that bullies should be resisted. I’ve had experience of them, and I’ve both been in and know people who have been in abusive situations and I think that it’s important that people know how they happen, how they work and how abusers justify themselves… and in fact, that also happens to be political insofar as politics is about power relationships and how people try to use them.
You think that “politics” is about distant abstractions such as “parties”? this is politics. It’s about someone trying to intimidate and silence their opposition. McF has constantly tried to intimidate and denigrate people who disagree with him. That is not acceptable, whatever one’s ideology.
Bullies must be opposed or at least escaped, but one must never surrender to them.
I’m sorry if you don’t find it personally gratifying.
Well, yes, everything is politics, isn’t it.
Bullying happens on this site from time to time. I’ve called someone out on it myself. I don’t see McFlock bullying in this thread. I see two people abusing each other in public. I fail to see how that is resolving anything, least of all bullying.
Can’t say I’ve noticed McFlock bullying in general, in any over the top kind of way beyond the usual levels of nastiness that often pass for discourse here. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. If it’s at the level of people needing to protect themselves, then I suggest you email one of the Authors or admin and ask them to take a look at the pattern.
Well, James Bond was good cheesy fun. And the chicken was crispy.
I see that I still managed to stalk and be obsessive in absentia.
Can’t say I’ve noticed McFlock bullying in general
“The boys throw stones in jest, but the frogs die in earnest” as the proverb has it. It’s not for you to say, but the targets’.
I don’t appoint you as arbiter.
I suggest you email one of the Authors or admin
Done brushing it under the carpet, doesn’t seem to work.
Abuse and attempted intimidation should not to be defined by some distant third party, but the target, as the perpetrator does it by means devised to avoid any third party.
I appreciate your intentions, but you are being naive.
In any case, abusers must be resisted, or they simply learn that they can get away with what they do. It’s not a trivial matter and it’s not “political” in the sense that it relates to something far away. It’s immediate and everywhere and it must be stopped.
I don’t know how McF treats his (I’m sure that he’s male) partner (whatever their gender is), but his manner in response to opposition is worrying and I really do not think that one can separate the personal from the political. Those “on the left” can still be tyrants and bullies and that in itself is political.
Are you saying that you are being bullied?
Weka: Are you saying that you are being bullied?
I’m saying that he tries to.
Again, that’s not up to you to decide. Really, you’re on thin ice here. While this obviously isn’t sexual abuse, I know plenty of victims of sexual abuse and always, there is a struggle over what constitutes “abuse”, with an intention by the abuser to take control, defining what “abuse” is on their own terms… well, there’s an old proverb – “Who defines the terms wins the argument.” Never let anyone else write the terms for you.
In what position are you appointing yourself?
I’m not appointing myself to any position, I’m just expressing opinion and sharing what I see. All I’ve said is that I haven’t seen McFlock bullying in general (beyond the usual abuse that happens here), but that they could be.
Looks to me like you are the one doing all the appointing.
btw, I don’t agree with your basic premise on who gets to determine what is bullying. There is something odd about how you have just argued this using sexual abuse as a comparison. You appear to be saying “I’m a victim of abuse therefore I get to ultimately define what is abuse and everyone else is wrong if they don’t agree with me. You also appear to be missing that I’m not in direct disgreement with you.
btw2, I never said that bullying and abuse isn’t political, so please stop running that line.
Well Weka, I take what you say in good faith, but you have to realise that people who have been the subject of abuse and manipulation have a different perspective on things. I remember a counsellor of mind asking me, very pointedly “why did you give X so much power?” I thought about that and in the end realised that they were manipulating me. I learned to see the signs of (attempted) manipulation and guilt-tripping and saw how insidious they can be. The impulse to abuse isn’t all about fists, it can simply be an unacknowledged compulsion to exert control – emphasis on “compulsion” and “control”.
It is NOT an “objective” matter, but a subjective one. Power in itself is someone’s attempt to exert control over another person, by any means, be it brute force or emotional manipulation via guilt tripping, body image or whatever.
I’m sure you mean well, but I’ve learnt from my feminist friends that there are far more insidious means of exerting power than simply sending thugs around with truncheons, and they happen at both the social/cultural level and the personal.
The fact that you don’t see McF trying to bully is irrelevant. Again, there is the proverb, “the boys may throw stones in jest, but the frogs die in earnest.” That may seem very selfish by someone who is not a frog, but very real to the frogs nonetheless.
You also appear to be missing that I’m not in direct disgreement with you.
Thank you for that – indeed you are correct, but from my own experience and that of people I know, I do think that more needs to be said, if not for your benefit, but for some who might be reading this.
Ahem,
I get to ultimately define what is abuse and everyone else is wrong if they don’t agree with me
Sorry, again, I accept your good faith, but that does “look” like “if I can’t see it, then it doesn’t exist.” Ask the targets. I won’t say “victims”.
“Well Weka, I take what you say in good faith”
Thanks, I appreciate that.
“I’m sure you mean well, but I’ve learnt from my feminist friends that there are far more insidious means of exerting power than simply sending thugs around with truncheons, and they happen at both the social/cultural level and the personal.”
I think you are arguing against something I haven’t said or done. I have a pretty good understanding of abuse dynamics and the forms that abuse takes. You can use the search ‘weka bully’ to see how I dealt with calling someone out on this in the past.
“It is NOT an “objective” matter, but a subjective one.”
For the person being abused/bullied, yes. But in the public sphere, more than the subjective is needed. This is why criminal prosecutions of sexual abuse are so difficult (that, and rape culture). I’m not saying that you shouldn’t take steps to deal with bullying if it is happening here. But I do think that as other people get involved, there needs to be something beyond your subjective experience. You can say to me “I say it is so” and I don’t really have anything to go on (if I knew you it might be different). But if you say “this is my experience, and here are some examples that demonstrate the problem”, then there is something that I can make sense of. (I’m not suggesting you give examples, it’s late).
“Power in itself is someone’s attempt to exert control over another person, by any means, be it brute force or emotional manipulation via guilt tripping, body image or whatever.”
Yes, but not all exertions of power are abuse. Generally there needs to be a power differential. I think bullying is a distinct dynamic, because sometimes there is no obvious power differential like there is in other kinds of abuse.
And how power dynamics play out has alot to do with the histories and internal resources of the people involved. There are also issues of horizontal/lateral abuse, where there can be grey areas that don’t fit into conventional theories of abuse dynamics.
Ahem,
“I get to ultimately define what is abuse and everyone else is wrong if they don’t agree with me”
Sorry, again, I accept your good faith, but that does “look” like “if I can’t see it, then it doesn’t exist.” Ask the targets. I won’t say “victims”.
It only looks like denial if you are making inaccurate assumptions about what I am saying. See above. My wanting examples of bullying (they can be subjective even) and not accepting your say so, is not denial of the dynamic. It’s a mistake to be thinking that IMO, because it means that all accusations of bullying and abuse have to be ‘believed’ irrespective of whether they are true or not. Again, what I am saying is there are differences in levels of truth when one deals with things personally, and when one takes them into the public sphere (and those differences exist for good reasons).
(I’m also not convinced that abusing bullies is a good strategy for solving problems of bullying, but that is probably a conversation for another time).
Weka, first, I am not in disagreement with you at any point. I am not accusing you of anything. I have no malice and intend no insult towards you. I don’t want to argue with you because I don’t disagree with you.
Rather than replying to every point you make, which would be rather time-consuming and tedious to any spectators, I’ll be brief, because it is late.
I do see that McF has repeatedly tried to silence his critics through abuse directed towards particular corespondents on this blog. He has done this repeatedly and in a way that, to be frank, seems rather creepy and obsessive in some personal cases.
Abuse cannot be ever be allowed to be defined by the perpetrator, because then it becomes legitimised on their terms.
That is my problem with McF – repeatedly he says (paraphrased) “it’s OK, because I don’t think it’s abuse”.
I don’t think that that’s good enough.
I think that we should be free on this blog to voice criticism of the powerful, but no-one should be allowed to shut down debate through attacks on corespondents on this blog if they are not obviously breaking rules – but McF repeatedly tries to do so through personal denigration and intimidation. “Go fuck yourself” seems to be his usual comeback, which is not particularly constructive, witty or illuminating.
I think that is also useful to know how people who are abusive in personal relationships must have their methods exposed, bullies must never be even passively enabled, because the personal really does mirror the political.
Ok, thanks for that. I’ll keep an eye out and see what I think with comments in context.
@ Rhinocrates….there will always be mean spirited people…and the manipulators and the abusers…and I expect there will be a ferocious fight coming up if Cuinliffe wins…..the question is what one does with that energy….on the positive side it sharpens wits and verbal swords like yours….
…sometimes it is worth a major fight , even a war…..sometimes a good humoured skirmish….sharp exposure …. and then a scarper….guerrilla warfare
….with your verbal abilities and commitment to fighting abuse and bullying….in all its psychological/soul shades of black and yellow….I suggest you become a writer/novelist , if you are not one already…..
@ Rhinocrates….I think that not only was McFock’s chicken dinner crispy…..but you created a crispy ‘McFlock Flambe’……he hasnt been heard from since
….but he may be back as a somewhat chastened, sooty and charred Bird….
I suggest you become a writer/novelist , if you are not one already…..
Thank you Chooky. In fact, I am.
Before you ask, it doesn’t pay well.
@ chooky: yeah, nah. Didn’t sit in front of a computer until 3. Probably failing in my job description as an obsessive stalker, there.
@ McFlock….pleased you are back ……and Rhinocrates didnt kill you
@Chooky
lol
I like to sleep in on weekends.
Without wishing to be caught up in the strange little thing you have going on with McFlock, I don’t think the above can really be allowed to go by uncommented. You have a way with words and you often use them yourself in ways that are designed to hurt and humiliate others. Abusive terms like ‘mublefuck’ and ‘arsewipes’ – always clearly aimed at a person – spew from you in little ejaculations of bile. You referred to Grant Roberston as ‘a cancer on the Labour party’ the other day.
That’s three egregious examples from one short thread of comments. You do this sort of all the time. Either toughen up, or stop dishing it out if you aren’t willing to take it.
Or if you must have it both ways, change your name to something more representative – Jellyfishcrates might suit, hinting both at your ability to sting and your natural invertebrate state.
And for what it is worth, I do not think much of your idea that abuse must ‘never’ be defined by the ‘perpetrator.’ Your definition is handily tautological, of course, because if there is a ‘perpetrator’ there must be some degree of abuse – it implies intention to cause hurt. But that does not mean everything that causes offence or hurt is abuse. Just because you feel abused, it does not mean someone has abused you.
Lurgee,
change your name to
Do not presume to dictate to anyone what they should or say or how they should name themselves. That is not your prerogative.
McF has repeatedly bullied people on this site and he needs to learn what it is like to see someone hitting back. Bullies must never be enabled.
Just because you feel abused, it does not mean someone has abused you.
You should speak to people who have been the targets of abuse. It must never be up to their abusers to define what they are entitled to do. There is no “objective” authority in such cases, because the measure of their crime is their intention and their effect. McF seeks to intimidate and harm people in order to silence criticism.
Yeah, I say nasty things about people with power who want still more power. You really fail to understand the nature of power – those who have it have an advantage over those who don’t, and to paraphrase the trite line from Spiderman, it entails responsibility too. Beltway Grant and Mumblefuck aren’t common citizens – they are aristocrats with special power, protection and income. I refuse to defer to them or treat as my superior someone who pretends to be a lord and wants to be a king.
If you persist in dishing out abuse, do not be surprised – or offended – if it is returned to you. Do not try to claim the moral high ground when you are knee deep in filth. It isn’t hard to be mostly polite, even to people you dislike.
As for how you should name yourself, I’m sorry. I won’t ever dare to dictate how you should name yourself. Jellyfish, after all, might be insulted by the association.
Sorry, what was it you said earlier? “Abuse cannot be ever be allowed to be defined by the perpetrator, because then it becomes legitimised on their terms.”
Gotcha. Your abuse of others is legitimate on your terms.
do not be surprised – or offended
I’m not surprised or “offended” – and I will not be intimidated by it either.
Here, throw this at me:
“Offence” doesn’t worry me, though attempts at intimidation might if someone knew who I am and where I live – and McF has that weird obsessive nature that could make that serious.
I would be hurt and offended if you were someone I knew and respected. You are neither, so your claims are irrelevant.
I say nasty things about people with power who want still more power
Look at that.
Learn what power is, and how it is toxic. No one is due special deference, and those with power who want more power are almost by definition people who need even more attention and criticism and even ridicule. I’m not a hero-worshipper and if lots of people are, then I start to worry.
If you think that people with power or the potential to gain it are immune to criticism, then they are dangerous and you are a fool.
oh, were you “hitting back”?
well, er…
ouch?
You randomly decided to intentionally “push my buttons” and invent half-truths about me and what I said, and then go into big rants about sexual abuse and bullying (as if my behaviour here has anything to do with either), and claimed once again that I’m obsessed with you and so on, all apparently to “teach me a lesson” when I have managed (with little effort) to ignore all your comments for weeks or months.
Not sure when we had our last run-in. It might have been six weeks ago, where you replied to my comment that was in no way related to you. Come to think of it, most of the run-ins I recall this year have been started by you replying to unrelated comments or just making shit up about me again.
Do you really not see the funny side of doing all that and still claiming to be the one being “bullied”?
I don’t give a shit about what points you want to make or where you make them. If you reply to my comments or just randomly make shit up about me (like this time), then I’ll reply according to whim. That is my only (minor) interest in your activities.
And if you don’t like rude words, I don’t give a fuck.
” McF seeks to intimidate and harm people in order to silence criticism.”
At the risk of getting shot down with some wonderful literary creation, I’ve never observed this, and it seems a gross exaggeration to say the least.
I don’t give a shit
If you didn’t, you wouldn’t post – so obviously you do.
I also seem to recall that you said some time that you’d never respond to me again.
I have Prozac. It’s great. Try it yourself.
heh, true.
I guess your persistence paid off. It was either that or let a delusional dickhead repeat lies about me, unanswered.
But I’m really not sure you realise how little effort is involved in pressing “reply”. It really is significantly less effort than many a crap I have made. Although I have boosted my fibre intake recently.
Fender, that’s because you’ve never been the target. I have been, and know many people who have been targets, and always there are specious justifications and bystanders who say “what’s the big deal?”. You’re being naive – start listening to people.
Thing is, though, I don’t think NOT calling someone ‘mumblefuck’ or describing them as a ‘cancer’ is showing them ‘special deference’. I don’t go around calling normal people things like that, so not using these terms to describe powerful people is not ‘deference’. It’s called being polite.
All I see here is an abuser trying to legitimise his abuse. Deserved it, did they? Kind of asking for it, even, were they? They make you do it, don’t they, what with their power seeking and ambition?
Although I have boosted my fibre intake recently.
OK, that’s just getting weird. If you want to describe your bowel movements, then do so with your GP. I can infer that your statement has something to do with an attempt to score points, but I cannot and do not want to know what the game is. Keep your scatophilia to yourself please.
Power is never polite. By its nature it is arrogance and must always be brought down.
what with their power seeking and ambition?
Exactly. You think that it’s a trivial thing, a mere peccadillo?
it was to do with not giving a shit.
Didn’t work?
Ah well, not all my material is my best. As it were.
Fish. Cucumber. Cole slaw. Mayonnaise! Shoes. Ask not what you can do for your pudding!
You didn’t get the (not particularly good, admittedly) joke. No need to be a dick about it.
Diddums. Anyway, I like being a dick.
really? For me it’s more a disability I try (with varying success) to overcome.
[ Bill: McFlock. Remind me. When did I give you that warning about harassment?
oh okay, I’m off for the night. I did say “varying degrees of success”.
[cue rhino to rant sanctimoniously while pretending that he in no way had anything to do with it]
You really don’t see what you are doing, do you? It’s classic abuser behaviour.
Minimize / Deny – by describing your abuse as just saying ‘nasty things’ and saying that NOT calling someone ‘a cancer on humanity’ is ‘special deference’ rather than what normal, non-abusive people do.
Justify – because they deserve it, really, don’t they? They ‘need even more attention and criticism and even ridicule.’
Blaming the victim – make it their fault, because wanting political power is bad, worse than ‘a mere peccadillo’ – interesting description of the desire to use politics to help people – and this justifies your behaviour.
Still, it doesn’t matter, because you think politicians are fair game – in fact you see it as a duty to abuse them; though you also complain that some try to justify abuse that is “political” as somehow ‘not relevant.’ Then use the defence yourself when called on your abusive railing.
Oh, is this where the current outbreak of silliness started?
In fairness, the alleged quote/paraphrase – “They’re not supposed to win this way, they were on a steady course with Shearer” was clearly flagged as something you are GOING to say “in coming months”; not something you are supposed to have said.
So you’re wrong, and look stupid for not realising.
But it isn’t a paraphrase, because you can’t paraphrase something someone hasn’t said yet. I think Rhinocrates may have meant ‘parody.’
So he’s wrong, as well, and looks stupid.
Both happy?
Hey, I like silliness. Read John Ralston Saul’s Voltaire’s Bastards Too much seriousness has got us in to a lot of trouble.
@ Rhinocrates….you should be a crime writer …it should have stalkers in it … spies and politicians …..and Philosopher Kings…. and the internet….and strange birds cooking crispy chicken and watching cheesy James Bond films (ha ha)
…in fact that sounds so good i might have to write it myself
….i am told crime writers have a helluva lot more fun than romance writers …. who are likely to stab you in the back at their conventions
I’ve no idea why he felt compelled to bring me into his fantasy at all.
Oh, that’s right: he wanted to push my big shiny buttons, so he could complain about being bullied, or proudly bully so I got a taste of all my misdeeds, or something.
Yes, I am pushing buttons – and look how you light up and dance!
McFlock – I have been reading your comments for years and although we have had the odd run in, I appreciate them. Kia kaha.
cheers marty – likewise 🙂
Um… to be pedantic, as you are trying to be…
So you’re wrong, and look stupid for not realising.
Realising what? This is an incomplete sentence.
Also, a paraphrase is a version of something that has never been said, but which is implicit in what has already been said, so that “logical” analysis with talk about the future means nothing.
You claim to be a writer, I’m sure you can work it out.
Oh, and I repeat: you can not paraphrase something that has not been said. Pretending you can by engaging in silly games by pretending a paraphrase is by definition something not said makes you look a fool; a paraphrase is a rewording of a prior utterance. You can not paraphrase something that has not been uttered. If you are going to continue with this absurdity, please cite an authority, and spare us the bluster.
While assuring the voters that they weren’t at all homophobic, National would also mention Robertson’s sexuality several times a day. I’m not sure whether this would help them or not, but I’d hope not.
That’s why Hoots, the Penguin and Whalecum exist – National doesn’t need to do any dogwhistling when they’ve outsourced it. See “plausible deniability”.
That Nats might want a third term, but I get the distinct impression John Key doesn’t.
lol
Here’s a wee job for you Dorothy. Column inches of acknowledgement/analysis of Labgre-leading Roys compared to their Nacti counterparts for the last 12 months. Tomorrow’s Gran’s compared to last month’d be a good starter. Ta luv
Shearer going and leaving Labour leaderless has had an uplifting effect on the polls. Figure that.
Imagine what another 6 months would have done ;-p
Oh, so now a 1% shift for labour is a change 🙂
Don’t forget the increase in undecideds and the Greens. And regardless, the electorate isn’t missing Shearer at all.
see – the leadership is largely irrelevant 🙂
fify
lol – waiting for that one 🙂
Either Grant or David will be a significant improvement on Shearer. Whoever takes the leadership position needs to bring the two factions of caucus tightly together however. That’s the biggest challenge, and the biggest danger.
Of course, being a Cunliffe worshipper/zealot/fanatic/fanboy I would prefer he takes it 😈
maybe.
At most there’s 10%-odd in it for labour. Barring his last two months, shearer was pretty much on track for that. Regardless, I reckon 47% for labour alone is right out.
Shearer was right on track for 18 of the 20 months he was Leader? OK…
Yep, pretty much. Solid. Not spectacular. But enough. Especially from the 27% start line.
I think even you could agree that the last couple of months were significantly (figurative and statistical) different from the previous 18.
When exactly was Labour routinely polling 35-36%? That’s what they need. I don’t recall that happening with Shearer as leader.
McFlock has to keep up the storyline that Shearer was “on track” for 90% of his leadership, and only fell over at the last moment, surprising most people.
I’m hoping the new leader of which I am hoping is Cunliffe as I can’t see Robertson being as electrifying as Cunliffe will bring that to over 40% but any improvement in the polls would definitely defeat the National Party.
Lanth, expecting the incoming leader to immediately poll at the level required to win is not realistic. If the change does give a bounce, it can disappear as quickly as it appeared. And that theory goes for all leadership changes, not just shearer – look at Rudd.
So I prefer slow and steady progress. When it suddenly turns into four consecutive polling drops after a pretty consistent ‘3-up 1-down’ pattern, then I become concerned.
Shearer was leader for 20 months. You said “Barring his last two months, shearer was pretty much on track for that”.
So please, show me where under Shearer’s leadership, Labour were polling 35-36%, because that’s where they need to be, with the Greens polling 12-13%, to have a chance of winning the election without having to make massive compromises.
When did they need to be there? From february 2012, when they only got 27% in nov 2011?
They sure as shit weren’t getting polling points at 23%, like before the 2011 election.
“When did they need to be there? From february 2012, when they only got 27% in nov 2011?”
I notice you keep dodging the question by somehow implying that it would be unrealistic for it to have happened instantly after Shearer took over.
Of course that would be unrealistic. And I have never suggested that they should have been polling that high shortly after he took over.
Shearer had 20 months. You are contending that Labour was on the right track with Shearer as leader to win the election. I think polling 35-36% counts as “being on the right track”, because even that amount with the Greens getting 12-13% doesn’t guarantee a victory.
So, when during Shearer’s leadership – at any point – did they consistently poll around 35-36%, or higher. You claimed it happened, put up the evidence.
Did I claim that Labour were routinely polling 35-36%? I don’t think so.
what I claimed was that Labour had steady if slow progress for most of shearer’s term, barring the last two months. And I stand by that. They only need to reach 35-36% before the election. Not halfway through the term.
fanactivist 😈
“If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.”
Win what exactly? NACT/NZF/MP still have more % than L/GP/Mana. Looking at TRP’s seat count in comment 1, it still doesn’t look like a win for the left.
you have to remember that the Maori Party’s % is pretty much meaningless, they have 3 electorate seats,
Tamaki-Makarau, currently occupied by Pita Sharples with a 1000 vote majority over Shane Jones, dare i suggest that Jones will win that for Labour in 2014,
Waiariki, currently held by Flavell with a couple of thousand votes over Mana’s Annette Sykes, the only way Flavell is getting back into the Parliament is if Labour hoover up more of His shrinking vote than Annette can,
Auntie Tariana’s seat is going to be vacant now She has decided she has had enough rides in the Beamer, i don’t think Mana can win this seat but Labour could,
On the numbers as they now stand National will have to have NZFirst on it’s side of the House to Govern along with Banks and the ‘Hairdo’,
‘The left’ have until November 2014 to pull another 1-2% of the vote on the current numbers to make it a certainty,
Not a big ask in my opinion…
“you have to remember that the Maori Party’s % is pretty much meaningless, they have 3 electorate seats,”
Yes I know that, I included them for clarity, because RM seemed to just be adding up the percentages. I’m unclear how anyone can call that poll as an easy win for L/GP, given it would be an MMP election.
It’s an easy win for LABGR if you take the 6% undecideds and split half of them for the NATs and half of them for LABGR.
Why would you do that?
Because the undecideds party gets 0% in the election day MMP calculations; they have to go somewhere.
Bit of a stretch to assume all of those undecideds would vote, and that all of them would vote for either National or Labour, though. Much more likely is that we’ll still have a very significant no-vote, although hopefully not one that’s larger than Labour or National’s share of the vote this time. (The last election, if Didn’t Vote were a party, it would have had more seats than either large party)
The undecideds don’t have to vote for their role to be zeroed out on election day. Removing the undecideds from this poll and only counting decided voters only puts LABGRN over 50%, for instance. That’s an easy govt right there.
Right, the safest thing to do is just not count the undecideds and base parliament on people who have decided, and then just say how many still need to make their mind up.
It is probably really good news though that people being polled are undecided, as that means they care enough to answer but have not really made up their mind. That could indicate more unmotivated voters swinging Labour’s way in the future. 🙂
Yeah there’s a bit of truth in that, also expect Cunliffe as leader to drag in, in coming months,another 1-2% who didn’t vote last time round,
The numbers are lookin good…
i think Roy just lumps everyone into either ‘governing party’ or ‘opposition party’ without considering the intricacies involved with an ‘either way’ party like NZFirst,
Given that NZFirst is at this time part of the opposition it’s easy to see how Roy could see the numbers as an easy victory for the left,
While the Green vote is polling high my vote remains with Mana hopefully helping to propel MP number two into the Parliament for Mana whether they win Waiariki or not…
Correct, bad12. RM is slowly getting used to our form of democracy. A year ago the headline would have been ‘National still have big lead over Labour’. But recently, they seem to have got the message that our system produces results more like the Aussie senate, and the analysis has improved as a result.
That is why we need the right labour leader who is Cunliffe to take the polls further so we can have a huge majority in parliament and he has this current poll as a good start.
You think Winston will go with Key? Dream on! National without Key – maybe. Remember he said he will not support any party that will sell assets.
That’s what people thought in 1996, when everyone thought a vote for NZ First was a vote for Labour, then Winston ended up supporting National.
None the less, imagine how interesting a Key-Winston government would be…
That was more to do with Jim Anderton refusing to go into coalition with NZF. Mind you, you should be grateful – had NZF not gone into coalition with National, ACT would have, and look how “interesting” that’s turned out. There was also some promise the Nats made about ending asset sales, but unfortunately they didn’t follow through.
That’s why you have negotiations, of course. Winston supports National, national agree to forego any asset sales. He gets his baubles back, they get to carry on stuffing up the country in other ways. That’s democracy, ain’t it great.
Didn’t work out in 1996 and, to paraphrase Leviticus, only a dog returns to its own vomit. And even if that did happen, would you rather have another National-ACT coalition? Are you that much of a masochist?
“A leaderless Labour with Greens help would apparently defeat John Key.”
That gets my vote for the-most-amusing-assessment-of-a-poll award.
The non-voters speaking out perhaps?
My question is, can a Cunliffe lead Labour pull 37-39% of the vote in November 2014, befor anyone falls about the place laughing at the notion check where National where sitting 6 months ago in the Roy Morgan poll,
The gloss has certainly come off the Slippery head of National’s current abysmal Government, it’s a long way down on the roller coaster from ‘governing alone’ or even 47% but the empty suitcase of intellectual rigor we have as the current Prime Minister has managed almost single handedly, while Labour has struggled over it’s question of leadership, to destroy His party’s chances of a third term in 2014,
Does a rejuvenated Labour have the policy to pull 3-5% of the vote off of the crowded fence of the non-vote bloc and what are those policies,
The question for National in the face of such an abysmal poll is will they wait it out till November 2014 while Labour gather strength around it’s new leader, or will Slippery using something like the Dunne/ Maori Party opposition to the proposed changes to the RMA couple an early election with the referendum He has to hold on asset sales,
Given an upcoming Roy Morgan, along with their own National Party internal polling, which puts National under 40% of the vote will Slippery the Prime Minister get to contest the 2014 election at all, at what point does Judith Collins have the numbers to roll the little prick, She was confident enough a month ago to openly tell Slippery She was after His job,
Far from a blood-bath within the Labour Caucus, the media should be looking askance of National as to when the knives begin flashing in public…
And who had a major role in John Key losing popularity?
Maybe, just maybe, Slippery got it all wrong and ‘the people’ did care about the GCSB Legislation after all…
That was purely due to the way the media decided to spin that story.
Tough luck then ae, having had the media ‘spin’ go solidly their way for 5 long years National support is so fragile that it cannot stand a couple of months of spin the other way,
Who would have thunk it and as my guitar gently weeps for the sad plight of National i can only reflect that having bought the 2008 election with the tax switch such support was always going to evaporate as the sugar rush wore off…
Hows Cunliffe getting spun by the media?
Poor old Cunners, it’s going to be a hard road.
Lolz hard road not at all, watch the Roy Morgan after Sunday’s leadership result, should Labour gain a couple of % in the next 2-3 Roy Morgans even the absolute haters of Cunliffe in the Labour Caucus,(pre-supposing there are any outside of media spin that is), will all sniff Victory and that will silence the hardest of dissenters…
The media will make or break you.
Unfortunately that’s how the game works, Key forgot how the game worked and paid the price, poor old Cunners refuses to play the game and will be destroyed because of it.
Whats that old saying
The pen is mightier than the sword.
Despite months of negative press both in print and on the TV Labour gain a % point in the polls,
If that is a media driven ‘breaking’ of Labour then all i can say is LOLZ bring it….
A lot of it is about laggy timing in the public perception.
What we are seeing in the most recent poll is the effect of the rising debate over the GCSB.
In the event that we win the America’s cup over the coming week, then you can expect that the government’s figures will receive a boost in the polls taken at the end of October.
Good points lprent, well worth noting. It would be easy to say that Shearer was a liability, which was my opinion, bit not a proven fact. We’ll see what happens in later polls. The fact that the media has been focussing on the leadership contest may focus public attention on Labour policy or ideals and that may raise their rating…
The pen is mightier than the SPIN – eventually.
You’re right about the MSM though – they are not going to give Key’s opponents one iota of fair and balanced reporting; they will obfuscate, lie through their teeth, distract and ignore any positives they can without batting an eyelid, because they are the one’s that matter and to hell with democracy.Facts; investigative journalism, a bit of digging, asking some hard questions of Key – what are they? Puleese!!
While the ‘pen may be mightier than the sword’ you ‘can’t wrap a fire in paper’….
“Hows Cunliffe getting spun by the media?”
Same way he’s getting spun by you; as a serious threat to the right wing.
If National loses this election it will be the first 2-term National government in the entire history of the National party. Led by your hero, John Key.
True. But let’s see if we have even made it to base camp tomorrow.
Not even base camp as the unity team under the great leader hasnt even been assembled yet for the long march!
Very true.
Which is a result of MMP.
Not necessarily. The MMP Clark government was only the 2nd Labour government in history to last longer than 2 terms.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governments_of_New_Zealand
Correct. NZ has had far more terms under Tory governments than Labour ones.
It hasn’t been all that lopsided really. If you take it from the first Lab Govt in 1935 (there really wasn’t a leftist party in the hunt before that) then the Nats have spent roughly 43 years in power to Labs 35 yrs. Only 2 or 3 terms different. I got a bit confused doing a quick count because some Govts didn’t last full terms. But it looks as though roughly speaking it’s 12 terms to Lab and as of next year 14 to Nat.
PS. If you want to look pre 1935, would you count the Liberals as “Tory”?
My point is actually that National governments won many elections with a minority of the popular vote, because we were under FPP. If we had been under MMP, they would have lost those elections and we would have had more Labour/left governments.
Lanthanide, I disagree.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_elections
National:
minority wins: 8
majority wins: 7
total wins: 15
53% minority wins
Labour:
minority wins: 4
majority wins: 6
total wins: 10
40% minority wins
(Figures only compared during the time when both Labour and National existed)
So National didn’t win that many more elections with a minority of the vote when compared with Labour. Also, as these figures show, National has won far more elections than Labour. It’s plausible to consider that Labour’s wins were therefore more emphatic as people were thoroughly sick of the incumbent National government of the day. As the saying goes, it’s not that opposition parties get voted in, it’s that governments get voted out.
Key will have billions from asset sales to spend on election year lollies. That is his big trump card. There is nothing the opposition can do about it.
A week is a long time in politics. 14 months are a millennium.
Trump card??? you are joking right, Slippery and Bill from Dipton have already ‘spent’ the asset sales monies twice over,
Should they try spending it x3 leading into the next election even the tame media will start yelling foul…
The proposed billions in the asset sales is shrivelling by the day as we can see even the bankers think it should be canned but if I can predict John Key he doesn’t listen to anybody anyway.
Will key still get a knighthood if nat doesnt win next time?
Well Tracey if the recent history of CEO’s is anything to go bye ,because of the mess this lot have left Aotearoa in he will be made a Lord..
Roy Morgan polls vary so much it is hard to take them seriously. Sixweeks ago, National was polling over 50%. Not it has supposedly lost 10% for no obviously good reason? Labour returns to normal 32% after another (likely methodological) wobble and the Greens are shown at near maximum support. It’s a farce. You probably need to allow for about +5% to National and -5% to the Greens and then it is back to coin toss territory. It’s still winnable (as it was with Shearer) but unless Labour gets to within shouting distance of Labour, I think it will be a Pyhrric victory – a one tem, uneasy coalition with the Greens, not able to accomplish much and dismissed in 2017 by a disgusted electorate.
The fact that RM polls vary so much is a reflection of their accuracy, lurgee. They have been the most accurate predictors of results both side of the Tasman for ages now and they seem very good as showing the normal day to day swings and changes of opinion that voters are prone to making.
Now THAT’S funny! For a moment I thought you were serious. Oh, wait a minute …
I don’t think people’s opinions ossilate that wildly. Have you noticed many people here abouts going “Cunliffe … no, Robertson! Wait, maybe Shane? Oh, Cunliffe! Why isnt Mallard running? Andrew Little, the best leader we can’t have?”
Come off it, you know your claim is ridiculous. Claiming Roy Morgan are more accurate because their numbers are all over the place is like suggesting TV psychics actually do read minds because they throw out so many hooks they always catch some naive fish. I predict that, at the 2013 election, National will get … between 30% and 55% of the vote! Labour, between 25% and 45%! That’s not accurate, it’s barely better than guessing.
Roy Morgan’s methodology is dubious and their polls need to be treated with extreme caution. Even Cameron Slater recognised this, when RM was putting Key at over 50%. It’s just silly.
HA HA HA, quoting Blubber-boy as recognizing anything except His own impotence in the face of a resurgent ‘left’ is today’s Joke par excellence…
Lurgee don’t like this poll very much it seems and no credible argument there from our dear Lurgee
the only emotion I feel towards the sad, mishappen children of Mr Roy Morgan is pity. Some are huge, some are tiny. Some are beautiful, some are ugly. No two of them look the same and that’s why you have to question who their parents really are.
Lolz, yeah Roy is only right when He has National polling as Governing alone, lolz, imagine this if you can,
A resurgent Labour pulling 37% of the vote in November 2014 along with the Greens polling 13%, and then, lolz, Winston decides His final show will be as Minister of Foreign Affairs with the price being only confidence and supply along with Mana surprising everyone but me by picking up 2 electorate and 1 party vote seat,
Sounds more like a 3-4 term Labour lead Government of the left to me…
RM isn’t right when it shows National polling 51%, idiot. It’s still very likely wrong, just as the current 41% is very likely wrong. The numbers are all over the show. It’s impossible to trust such variable results.
RM has had National polling mid to low 40’s on and off for 12 months now. This one poll result fits that year long trend.
Labour continues to sit in the low 30% range. Again, it fits what RM has been reporting for some time now.
I’d say ‘low’ is a bit hopeful. They’ve had 7 results above 45% and 9 results below 45% in 2013 (ccan’t be bothered working out an average) which would suggest the average is about 45% and the polls up at 50% and down at 40% are outliers. There’s just too much variability to say there is a trend. Pretty much everything seems to be in the +/-5% range, which is what I give RM for the big parties.
Aw diddums, have we got you frothing at the mouth, impotent with rage perhaps, keep the above scenario in mind for November 2014 won’t you, it will save me having to tell you i told you so lolz…
Circumspection mate, this is not the time for victory lapping.
Suit yourself, i am having an enjoyable morning talking up the chances of victory in November 2014,(by my estimation pretty high),
You can of course choose to wallow in the negative if you so wish, lolz, should there be a loss in November 2014 i will be up the next day talking up a win in 2017,(but i don’t think i will have the need)…
Frothing? You’re capering about because of a dodgy poll by a company with suspect methodology. It’s pathetic when even Slater can see something is dodgy with Roy Morgan and you can’t.
Just to maximize my amusement this morning can you throw some illumination onto exactly why Blubber-boy sees something dodgy with this particular Roy Morgan,(other than the fact it shows National as being pretty much f**ked that is),
What exactly does this ‘suspect methodology’ look like???…
You’re a bit challenged, aren’t you? Slater commented on ROy Morgan’s methodology when RM showed National at 51%, not the current poll. That was pretty clear, I thought, from when I posted, “Even Cameron Slater recognised this, when RM was putting Key at over 50%.”
If you are not capable of following threads or connecting ideas across posts, maybe you should go back to the nursery.
Aw there there, no need to be such a sore loser this morning, take tho half a brownie point for the attempt at avoiding answering the question,
Given that it is you quoting Blubber-boy and extrapolating Blubber-boy’s comment on a previous poll to also include this one you should be able to enlighten us all as to what exactly this ‘flawed methodology’ is,
Or, ha ha ha are we all to simply take the word of Blubber-boy as gospel when ‘It’ is quoted by you commenting on a different Roy Morgan…
I didn’t ‘quote blubberboy’. I mentioned a instance where he had enjoyed one of his lucid fits. It’s worth noting that he did that when RM published a poll showing National at 51%, when he could have used this as an excuse to bray and slaver about how well national were doing. Instead he did the – by his standards – sane thing and wrote off the poll as some sort of freak, of the sort RM produce all too often. It is also worth noting that 51% poll was only six weeks ago. We’re supposed to take a polls showing that much variability seriously? They’re probably both outliers and leave RM’s methodology open to question.
You’re like one of Pavlov’s more hysterical dogs. the mention of Slater has sent you into a hysterical fit. Just because the man rarely talks sense, doesn’t meean he never does.
You, on the otherhand …
If this is a reference to my concerns about RM’s methodology, it had already been addressed below: “Roy Morgan need to look at their selection process, weighting, questioning and so on. Because something is likely amiss if they are recording such big swings.”
Forgive me if I couldn’t be bothered the same thing for a dim troll to ignore or misrepresent.
Even stopped clocks tell the correct time twice a day. Slater – unlike you – managed to work out that a poll showing something he liked wasn’t correct simply because he liked it.
Since the methodology is pretty much the same as the other polling companies and the only substantive difference is that RM is done about every two weeks, and the other polls are done every 6-8 weeks. Then doesn’t that suggest to you that the other polls have exactly the same level of variability? Individual polls have a high variability. Numbers of polls taken regularly and using the same methodology show a trend.
But in this case I suspect that the latest result is almost exactly on the main trends
National have been declining steadily since the election. Labour has managed a small increase. Greens and NZ First have made been largely steady, with one or the other usually picking up when National gets a large decline. Indicates a lot of soft National support.
Lurgee, it’s entirely possible that WhaleSpew wouldn’t like a poll that showed Key NAct going up, given his obscene fantasies about Crusher Collins as leader. He cannot be analysed using any rationale designed for relatively normal people.
I’d say the trend for National is steady at about 45%, which is frighteningly high given they are deep in their second term, evil, and frighteningly useless.
They only go by what the people tell them Lurgee a poll is an indication not the absolute right way. Idiot.
It isn’t as easy as phoning up a few people and asking them who they think they are going to vote for. Roy Morgan need to look at their selection process, weighting, questioning and so on. Because something is likely amiss if they are recording such big swings.
I haven’t suggested the poll is the ‘right way’ – just that all polls – and RM in particular – need to be treated with caution. RM in particular because they are very, very volatile.
“Because something is likely amiss if they are recording such big swings.”
Why? If it weren’t for swings we’d never have a change of govt.
I find it interesting how lurgee has been so busy attacking the RM. He’s never done it before.
I thought the most interesting thing from their original comment was this (so much revealed in one statement)
It’s still winnable (as it was with Shearer) but unless Labour gets to within shouting distance of Labour, I think it will be a Pyhrric victory – a one tem, uneasy coalition with the Greens, not able to accomplish much and dismissed in 2017 by a disgusted electorate.
There seems to be an agenda going on, but I’ve never quite figured it out. Self-hating leftie? Dog in the manger? Or just scared of the GP?
National spinner or some kind of strange ABC sect.
If you find my posting history ‘interesting’ then I REALLY think you need to get out more. Though obviously you can’t find it that interesting, as I think a real scholar of Lurgeeology would know I’ve had a few discussions on the topic of polling here and there. Often with you, which makes your ‘brain fade’ rather worrying. Or deliberate?
Sample:
http://thestandard.org.nz/polls-and-the-search-for-meaning/#comments
http://thestandard.org.nz/polls-and-rogues/#comments
http://thestandard.org.nz/the-enemy-is-still-not-your-friend/#comments
Note that in all the above I’m generally ‘pushing’ the same line – don’t get excited about polls, particularly not RM polls. A Green / Labour alliance is not a given and might be a disaster for 2017.
Now, I suppose, I’ll be told that these aren’t the right sort of comments, or there aaren’t enough of them.
Putting all that aside, I wasn’t aware that someone was obliged to comment on lots of threads for my comments on one thread to be taken seriously. Which is a rather weird reversal of the principle we’re arguing about here, the individual RM compared to their other polls.
Firstly, fuck off, you don’t get to say how and why I spend time online.
Secondly, I’m not a scholar of Lurgeeology. I don’t go looking for your posts, you just appear in front of me in some interesting conversations and I follow them. More of a committed Sunday reader than a scholar. I do read alot of posts here though, and am unlikely to remember specific conversations with specific people unless I know them or the conversations stand out in some way.
Thirdly, learn how to link properly 😉 (no, I’m not going to trawl through those three threads to see what you mean).
Fourthly, my comment at 11.25am was just a general response to your postings. You appear to be on the left, but you mostly are on a downer about things that others here are excited about. I haven’t figured you out yet. It’s not a problem, just a curiosity.
Lastly, not not leastly, why not answer my question at 11.12am?
If you’d cared to think a little bit before you started screeching ill considered abuse, you might have worked out I was addressing CV, who professed to find my current behaviour ‘interesting’ because ‘He’s never done it before.’ That suggests a rather unsettling knowledge of my posting history; or perhaps someone talking out of his hat. I’ll leave it up to you to decide which, though sadly neither is very complimentary to CV.
As for answering your question, I did – see my reply below from 2.46. Swings are fine. They happen. they have to happen. But swings of 10 points in 6 weeks are suspect.
[lprent: anyone can see your posting history. Typing @author lurgee in the search would do it. You can fine tune it with advanced options…. ]
I did think about it, but couldn’t tell. And no, I can’t read your mind. If you want people to know who you are talking to, address the comment to that person (esp once the numbered replies run out).
Likewise 2.46. How was I to know you were replying to me? (you comment didn’t appear to be answer to the question I asked. Still doesn’t. You post an opinion but don’t explain it).
“screeching ill considered abuse” – and lurgee gets a special commendation from the judges for applying a gendered tone argument on the basis of absolutely fucking nothing.
Exactly, QoT. Somehow intimidation isn’t “political” so it is not relevant, or it’s “political”, so it’s not relevant.
That’s how I found the old threads linked above. I don’t pretend to have immediate to hand knowledge of Things Lurgee Has Posted About.
Though CV obviously doesn’t either, and didn’t bother to check, because it would be pretty obvious I have posted on polling and related issues in the past. So just talking big about something and hoping not to be called on it. A shame, really. I quite liked the idea of CV cataloguing all my posts, printing them out and using them to paper a secret room with a weird little shrine dedicated to me.
This seems to be the thread for stalkers, after all.
I suggest you’re the one applying the tone to it.
‘Screeching’ refers to any sharp, loud, unpleasant noise. Wind can screech. Brakes can screech. Tyres can screech. Cats can screech. Women can screech and even big manly men can screech. It’s an onomatopoeic word, echoing the sound it makes.
You’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel.
And who, pray, is being intimidating?
Variation of 10 points in 6 weeks suggests either John Key actually sacrificed a child live on TV, intoning, “This represents the future of New Zealand if I win in 2013,” or the polling company really have to have a look at their methodology.
“Roy Morgan polls vary so much it is hard to take them seriously”.
Thanks Lurgee for that pearler. So Lurgee, I take it you think what Bunji says is a load of horse shit ? –
Bunji – “Fresh from being the most accurate at the Aussie election (as they frequently are here too), they’ve got their latest NZ poll out”.
Frankly Lurgee all the time now I find myself wondering if Lurgee is actually Fran, or John, or Audrey. You’ve even had a couple of moments when I’ve had to consider Gower and Garner. Hell !
I think the bit where Benjii said, “But one poll should not a story make. Grab a pinch of salt with every one.” is pretty much spot on.
You seem really agitated at the poll results mate. What’s the problem? The latest RM simply fits the range that both Labour and National have been travelling in for a year now.
I’m the one being calm. Everyone else is agitated. I’m posting lots because lots of people are replying, and most of them are behaving like idiots.
So Lurgee @ 9.3.1 – you recant your frantic out there comment – “Roy Morgan polls vary so much it is hard to take them seriously” ?
It’s a matter of this…..”if it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck……”.
OK ducky ?
What’s frantic about it? A poll showing a 10% variation in 6 weeks varies quite a lot, and it is hard to take them seriously. If the next truckload of RMs show the same figures as the current one, it might help, but right now it is as doubtful as the 51% claimed for National 6 weeks ago.
Funny how a lot of people here only take RM seriously when it looks good for Labour and shit all over it the rest of the time.
Not me. I take the average of the last three RM’s seriously all of the time. That is a sample size of 2400 taken over a 6 week period. Irons out the spikes and beats the crap out of those suckarse polls of less than a thousand taken every 6-8 weeks.
It will still be labour in government Lurgee
I said that was quite a possible result, up thread – “it is back to coin toss territory.” But given the complexity of the political situation (Winston or no Winston? Mana on 1, 2 or 3? Maori Party on 5,4,3,2,1 or 0?) if the numbers are suspect,t hey are almost useless.
The numbers are what they are lurgee. National is on notice as voters start moving to “undecided”. Labour is performing as it has for the last year. The Greens have climbed 1% to 2%.
Hilarious, should National sink to what i would consider it’s traditional core support, 40%, even NZFirst will not be able to save them,
That little scenario deserves a rather large LOLZ…
Winston might be a siginificant player for either the left or right. But the real question is whether he will be in pariament at all. 4.9% means nothing, 5% perhaps everything.
Actually, 4.9% means a lot.
All wasted votes influence the parliament seat makeup to the benefit of the largest party/bloc.
I ran some scenarios a few months ago where NZFirst getting 5% meant Labour/Greens together had something like 57-58 seats and would need Mana/MP/NZFirst to govern, but if Winston got 4.9% of the vote, Labour/Greens ended up with 62-63 seats by themselves, with Mana and MP merely “sitting at the table” as Pita was so delighted in repeating.
Obviosuly. But 4.9% means nothing for Winston. The poor wee mite will have to do without his baubles of office. 5% might mean a truckload of them.
If RM is suddenly accurate, NZF was at 6% in the latest
Bearing in mind that the Morgan poll usually underestimates NZF compared to every election, then you could be looking at 8%…
I have been listening to napolean xiv
”And now He’s spinning spinning spinning”, can’t quite get you head around the fact that this is a discussion about a specific Roy Morgan Poll,
Oh that’s right you and Blubber-boy think it was taken using ‘flawed methodology’ what you cannot say tho is exactly what the ‘flaws’ in the ‘methodology’ are…
It is a discussion of a specific RM poll. And I pointed out you can’t take them too seriously because other, recent individual polls have shown totally different results.
I can’t say what the flaws in RM’s methodology are – though I did make a few general suggestions – but the fact they show such wild swings suggests there is something not quite right about it.
So you and Blubber-boy both claim the Roy Morgan has ‘flawed methodology’ but then cannot back up the allegation with an iota of fact and barely a squeal of inuendo,
They have a phrase which describes such behavior, uuum i cannot for the life of me remember it,
Being full of shit is close tho, the f**king pair of you…
They produced a poll 6 weeks ago stating National had 51% of the vote. Today, the figure is 41%. Those are facts, and would lead to the conclusion there is too much variability in their polling for it to be reliable.
lurgee, the “margin of error” means they think the polled results represent the real population results within plus or minus of the given percentage value, but the key is that this is at 95% confidence.
This means, 1 out of 20 polls, the results will not reflect the population values by more than the stated margin of error (could be heaps more, or just 0.1% more, but more regardless).
That is all based on statistical theory, that their underlying polling methology is perfect and doesn’t have confounding factors etc. Generally RM polls have been more consistent and better at predicting general election outcomes than other pollsters, so they’re pretty good.
But my overall point here, is that even the very best polling company, doing a statistical sample, only says that 19 out of 20 of their polls can be trusted to be close to the ‘actual’ mood of the population they’re trying to measure.
I’ve put together a grid detailing the methods used by the different polling companies. I can’t actually find much info on the Roy Morgan poll. I’ve asked them – but they wouldn’t say whether they use the same method in NZ that they use in Australia.
https://grumpollie.wordpress.com/nz-public-poll-methods-grid/
There was some stuff that they used to have on the old website. Said it was random landlines and cellphones with about 800 targets. I’d presume that they do the basic demographic filtering.
The results are similar in overall trends with the other polling companies. The only real difference is that they do polls every two weeks whereas the other polls happen about every 6-8 weeks.
Like all of the polls, I don’t rely on them for exact values. I rely on them for trend. That is because it is evident when you look at the individual polls that the variance far exceeds the statistical margins of error. RM just happens to poll often enough to make that more clearly apparent.
The approach used by each company is really quite different. All accepted methods for polling, but very different. Roy Morgan appear more volatile than the others – I do a lot of time series surveys, and I hardly ever see swings as big as I’ve seen for Roy Morgan. When they do happen, there’s usually a good reason. Some events can dramatically change public sentiment very quickly (eg Orewa speech). If there has been no major event, but you see big swings, that’s just weird.
I suspect that the variations are just as big for the other polling companies. We just don’t “see” them because they do polls so infrequently that movement is expected.
There is enough variation between the polling companies to make it largely invalid to compare between ones from different companies.
Reading absolute percentages from any poll is just a mugs game even at the *predicted* margins of error which are typically in a range of ~6%…
The only useful way to read polls is to treat them as a psuedo-analogue signal without dampeners. As any engineer knows you read sample series of those. (I have been playing with touch screen driver code reasonably recently – poll numbers are easy by comparision)
“You probably need to allow for about +5% to National”
Except that National routinely get 3-5% less than the polls show when it actually comes to election time. This is largely believed to be an inherent bias in the sampling, where National voters are over-sampled.
Here’s the answer Lurgee, break cover and take your boring shit back to SlaterPorn – your last paragraph @ 9.1.1 –
“Roy Morgan’s methodology is dubious and their polls need to be treated with extreme caution. Even Cameron Slater recognised this, when RM was putting Key at over 50%. It’s just silly.”
Imagine the relief Lurgee – no more would you have to issue bullshit denunciations of ShonKey Python to keep your cover. You’d be at home !
And what do you think that ‘proves’?
Not much I guess……..except that your extraordinary and frequently angry negativity stamps you out as one who’d be much happier at SlaterPorn.
Angry negativity? Look at the comments being directed at me because I’ve dared to say, “Uh, guys, it’s probably just a rogue poll.” Look at your own comments if you want to see angry negativity. Hypocrite.
Yes Lurgee…….and as a result of some necessary correction you’ve moderated your tone somewhat in the course of morning, as your “stop picking on poor little reasonable me” crap @ 10.1.1.1 above demonstrates. Got very close to blowing your cover and confirming all suspicions earlier on there Lurg’.
Hypocrite ?
Don’t reckon anyone reading what I write suspects I’m an undercover ShonKeyist, like you.
You’re hypocrisy defined Lurg’.
I don’t care what anonymous people say about me on an irrelevant corner of the internet. I was pointing out your one eyed perception of the exchange. You – and others – say all sorts because I’ve dared to challenge the groupthink conclusion that this RM poll is wonderful. Doesn’t bother me, but when you start claiming I’ve exhibited ‘angry negativity’ while ignoring all the venom and accusations and general nappy soiling by yourself and other posters, it makes you look like a fool or a hypocrite. You choose.
My position has not changed. The current RM poll is likely an outlier, just as the one six weeks ago, giving National 51% of the vote, was likely an outlier. RM tend to produce far too many polls like those two for them to be reliable.
Hahahaha Yo Pot! This is Kettle! Whaddup my Niz?
It’s good to see the Greens on 15% as a strong green voice in government has been, in my opinion, long overdue in NZ. They must still be very cautious as to how their probable coalition partner is faring and I’m sure they will be watching the Labour leadership result with some interest.
If DC wins, they face losing voters back to Labour, which will diminish their influence in government.
If GR wins, the Labour party becomes as unelectable (maybe even more so) than a DS led troop, if they don’t catch the expected (by me) drop off in red voters, then 15 – 20% means nothing and Key wins again via shonky Labour caucus politicing.
It does seem, if the trend continues, the left block could well be on to a winner in 2014.
I hope Cunliffe on his honeymoon makes space in the bed for Russel and Materia.
+100 The Allen
…..the Greens deserve to be in parliament as full coalition partners with Labour….Many Greens voters are former Labour voters and they want to see Labour strong….but without giving their vote to Labour.
Labour’s responsibility with Cunliffe as Leader is to woo back the marginalized 800,000+ …..who did not vote last time!
Winnie’s responsibility is not to create trouble for the Greens.!….He is not in competition for their vote…He would be wise to angle for Minister of Foreign Affairs….where he was superb….especially in Asia and with USA!
+1
A leaderless Labour under play nice rules is the most united it’s gunna get.
maybe the rules should be extended…
Perhaps there needed to be a 4th option on the leadership ballot seeing as none is doing so well.
I have little faith in these polls although I did post something on open mike about this yesterday. What I found interesting was the reaction of some Tories, wanting Abbott instead of Keys. Some of the comments are pretty colourful.
Could we be seeing the emporers clothes finally being revealed, some true blues I speak to are concerned at the level of arrogance and poor issues management being shown in the last year or so.
Skycity and those PPP’s, GCSB, asset sales, national standards, holiday highways, UFB, tiwai, chch etc they have anything to do with global economic conditions its all the NACT’s work.
Cunliffe should make a virtue about being open with the greens & establish early on how their potential coalition might look. Bugger all this wait & see till after the election, they should immediately sort out how many greens might be in cabinet offices & suchlike.
I’m guessing Labour will want to settle into their new leadership and whatever else is going to happen, and focus on that. I agree it would be good to see some committed relationship building before the election. Not sure how realistic that is. Plus there is Peters to consider.
+1 Agreed. galvanise a tight left with greens-sooner the better and fuck peters. He cannot be allowed to hold the BOP ever again. Passed his used by and time for the back paddock. Talk with the greens now rather than after the election.
In the next 12 months DC has to stay on task- hammer the asset sales as this will be the major Achilles for shonkey.he has staked so much on this so called bullsit mandate that he won’t u turn and this will be his final undoing. good job.watch for the early election…
If he calls an early election he has to do the asset sale referendum at the same time.
The Nats won’t risk that
They will attack “Labour disunity” and the “mad Greens”
Will Keys lead a party knowing it may be defeated at election time?