Latest poll – Collins dog whistling is not working

Written By: - Date published: 8:04 pm, May 16th, 2021 - 55 comments
Categories: act, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls - Tags:

There is a new Reid Research poll out tonight.

Labour is up 2.7% to 52.7%.

National is also up 1.4% to 27%.

The Greens are down 0.8% and ACT down 0.7%.

The minor parties have also decreased.  NZ First is down to 1.9%.  Advance NZ has gone down from 0.9% to 0.1%.

The preferred leader result is interesting.

Ardern is down a bit from stratospheric heights.

Judith Collins’s support has gone down by two thirds.  Blowing the racist dog whistle clearly is not working.

Tomorrow National apparently have called for a full day caucus meeting.

I wonder what they will be discussing?

55 comments on “Latest poll – Collins dog whistling is not working ”

  1. Sacha 1


  2. Interesting that John Key polls higher than Collins and he hasn't been in Govt for years.

    In the preferred PM stakes, Jacinda Ardern polled at 48.1 per cent (up 4.5 percentage points); Judith Collins was at 5.6 per cent (down 12.8 percentage points).

    Former PM John Key was higher than Collins on 6.7 per cent, while backbench MP Christopher Luxon was on 2.4 per cent.

    • Sacha 2.1

      Key has been more visible lately..

    • Descendant Of Smith 2.2

      Though they shouldn't put people in polls who can't be leader. It does distort the results in my view – and that's true of any party.

      • mac1 2.2.1

        That might be a way of expressing dissatisfaction with their party's incumbent without favouring a politician from another party. Either that, or there are people who still want to 'Bring back Buck!"

      • ghostwhowalksnz 2.2.2

        'shouldn't put people in polls who can't be leader'

        They dont , the names are unprompted . Its who ever the person being asked wants ( well it was with the the phone polls, dont know if its changed for the online part they now use as well.

  3. Ad 3

    Ardern and Roberston could probably drown kittens on tv and stay over 50%.

    There is not a petajoule of political oxygen Labour isn't using up.

    Roberston gets the Budget on Thursday and Bayly's response to Robertson has very, very few angles to pursue.

    It's another great week in NZ politics coming up.

    • Patricia Bremner 3.1

      Well the National/Act mantra of "A do nothing Government" is beginning to look silly.

      The Racist dog whistle shows they are not up with modern thinking, but no real surprise there.

      Labour are introducing their manifesto, showing consistent themes and real progress.

      Jacinda Ardern continues to show Leadership qualities envied by many in countries with dithering or delayed decisions.

      These numbers reflect general satisfaction with the Government's progress, and dissatisfaction with the attack lines of the opposition.

      Personally I am delighted with the results, but no doubt this is a bitter pill for some of the negative naysayers here.

      • Ad 3.1.1

        The standard National angle for Bayly to pursue is one that sets out the absence of a growth and wealth strategy for New Zealand, as distinct from Labour's ongoing recovery strategy.

        The National-tending voter won't be ready for a 'wealth and growth' strategy until there is more international security and global economic confidence.

        2026 looks promising.

  4. Treetop 4

    It is time for Collins to face the inevitable just as previous party leaders have. The sun will still rise.

  5. Muttonbird 5

    May 22 is the date which the National Party avoids 4 leaders in one year.

    One week to go.

    • Sacha 5.1

      Budget might provide enough distraction for a sly swapover on the 21st..

    • Patricia Bremner 5.2

      Got your popcorn Muttonbird?

      • Muttonbird 5.2.1

        I don't think she'll go this week and even if she did there wouldn’t be time to pick yet another replacement.

        Isn't it amazing this time last year Simon Bridges was leader of the National Party.

    • Patricia Bremner 5.3

      A comment too soon!! They meet to discuss… guess what!!

  6. wonder how many Nat MP's will arrive early at the meeting and try out the seat for size before Collins gets there

    • Anne 6.1

      I think you will find Bridges has set up camp outside the door!

      • Sacha 6.1.1

        Selling the popcorn..

        • Incognito

          Book signing.

          • Sacha


            • mac1

              So who are the contenders and what are the odds? It sounds like someone could write a racing style commentary on the National leadership race.

              'And lining up at the barrier and competing for the Leader Loser Cup, we have Simple Simon ridden by a former cup holder and national identity, a bald pinto flown in recently by Air New Zealand and the current cup holder, whose I-browsing jockey has forbidden any polling on current form. Other horses will appear shortly from the stables but allegations of performance-enhancing by trainers and backers alike have somewhat skewed the result expected today, should the race actually start as there is some doubt as to whether a starter can be found, and the racing jury's members are also in doubt as they have been found to be influencing results……."

  7. Tricledrown 7

    Collins looked terrible on Friday internal polling can't have been good.

    National do not like losers.

    Looks like she will be gone by lunch time .

    Good she had been telling lies including about Ngai Tahu taking ownership of the South Islands Rivers.Her pathetic last ditch scaremongering a disastrous failure.

    No one likes her or her politics so the boil will be lanced. Who's up next.

    • Sanctuary 7.1

      If insiders on twitter are to be believed Collin's cancelled internal polling to stop bad results leaking and to keep her MPs in the dark.

      • Sacha 7.1.1

        Desperate times..

        • Sanctuary

          She has no control of her caucus which leaks like a sieve and cannot present a coherent message and rebellious MPs like Bridges openly bait her in the media with no consequences.

          Her two big political monikers have been to indulge Chris Bishop's petty courtier squabble with the speaker and to try and conjure up a race issue without bothering to do the groundwork first (another trait of Collins is the laziness of her prejudices) and just when the country is still (largely) in the glow of "the team of five million" and national unity is high.

          Collin's political judgement is catastrophic. She only understands the politics of malevolence. Wrong leader at the wrong time. She exists as LOTP only because no one has screwed up the guts to roll her yet.

  8. Foreign Waka 8

    I think it does not matter who leads the Nat party but it does matter a lot to have checks and balances in place. Even if the voices are unpopular. Otherwise you create an environment where the best solution is not sought, just the most convenient or pandering to a group or groups for the sake of winning the next election. Democracy works on the premise that ideas are debated and put to the public to vote on not just implemented because someone said so. And in the end this is the real issue here at hand but with those polls completely sidetracking on this, the press is complicit in not picking up on the basis of the debate. I know a lot of people now scared (!) to speak their mind. It is a sad state of affairs. NZ has to make a decision what type of government they want. MMP was not introduced because it was a fad, its implementation had good reasons. If anyone cares to remember.

    • Sacha 8.1

      We all benefit from a functioning parliamentary Opposition.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 8.2

      I know a lot of people now scared (!) to speak their mind.

      FW, any particular groups/topics in mind? What's eggshell territory right now?

      Sometimes the public speaks and politicians just ignore them; think attempts to repeal the (aspirational) anti-smacking law, or efforts to halt public asset sales.

      I remember employee unions being well aware that it was pretty pointless speaking their mind for nine long years, but in NZ politics what goes around comes around – that "lot of people now scared (!) to speak their mind" will find their voice again.

      • Foreign Waka 8.2.1

        Eggshell Territory: Anything that iss not in admiration of our PM or her cabinet. Any critique is straight away met with overbearing comments. Better stay away that is the consensus, not to talk about anything. Ignore the news and just get on with it. I personally find this a sad state of affairs. But hey, I will join the ranks as there is nothing to discuss.

        Listening to any gathering of people, you will not hear many critical voices without them being shouted down. Or have you?

        • Drowsy M. Kram

          Well it seems to me that there's plenty of criticism of "Dear Leader" here on The Standard, despite (or maybe because of) its traditionally left-leaning roots.

          Why “The Standard”?
          The Standard newspaper – from where our masthead comes – was founded by labour movement activists in the 1930s. They used it as a vehicle to share their views with a broader audience – a perspective they felt the mainstream media was representing poorly. We think the same is true today.

          What’s your political ‘angle’?
          We come from a variety of backgrounds and our political views don’t always match up but it’d be fair to say that all of us share a commitment to the values and principles that underpin the broad labour movement and we hope that perspective will come through strongly as you read the blog.

          I can only imagine what gets written on other political blogs in NZ, because The Standard is the only one I read. My politics, my choice.

          If someone such as yourself wants to explain why they have lost trust in our PM then by all means make an argument – just don't expect to get a free pass from other commenters who may have a different opinion.

          As for “overbearing comments“, the beauty of a blog is that it’s possible to largely ignore them if you so choose, and while it may feel like people with different opinions to your own are ganging up on you, short of a ban you can’t actually be “shouted down”. But it does help to know when you’ve made your point and to call it a day.

  9. Tricledrown 9

    Foriegn Waka democracy means National needs criticism to.

    Collins has no one to blame but herself for lying about Maori upper house ,Ngai Tahu owning all rivers in the South Island.

    John Key was inclusive and rode high in the polls.National need to ditch the rottweiler approach.

    • Foreign Waka 9.1

      Absolutely, please bring it on! By all means because I for one like to be assured that we are still in a democratic country. As for Collins, for all her faults she is the only one actually getting the paper out in the open. That, I have to say, is the point were have lost confidence and trust in the current PM. Not providing the information and treating the people like children with the comment that the current ruckus is the reason she did not, is in my book very much out of bounds.

      • Tricledrown 9.1.1

        FW Collins defamation of Ngai Tahu should go to the courts as she has lied and is fuelling Racism.

        Ngai Tahu should sue Collins for denigrating them for cheap political points scoring.Collins should apologize at the very least!

        Even though it has backfired Collins cheap shots should be held to account.

        National couldn't do worse with a new leader but does anyone within National have the baĺls to take up the leadership.

      • Descendant Of Smith 9.1.2

        There is nothing that says National has to be the opposition though.

        I have no problem with a strong pale blue Labour Party – such as it is and a more left wing Green Party with Maori Party doing better.

        National can shrink as much as they like – I won't miss them.

  10. AB 10

    Will be interesting to see Chris Trotter's take. He's been implying for months that there is a huge reactionary groundswell ready to jump in behind Collins in outrage at He Puapua, separatism, erosions of 'free speech' and cancel culture. One poll proves nothing much, but it does suggest that where Trotter imagines great legions of the disaffected, there may be only an aging Brashian rump.

    • woodart 10.1

      "great legions of the disaffected" maybe the rest of us are sick of hearing about the disaffected . media have given the disaffected that much oxygen over just about every subject you can think of, that the majority of kiwis are turning off. (this weekends media moan, possible brain drain to aus, majority reaction.. if you dont like it here ,phuck off ). when anybody can go on the web and talk directly to people overseas, who mostly are very keen on our way of life, current p.m. etc, it makes stoking the fires of the disaffected hard work. for years we have had the cultural cringe, then tall poppy bashers. maybe we have reached a tipping point.

      • Red Blooded One 10.1.1

        yes Oh so true, I used to be an avid 6pm News watcher (yes a Dinosaur I know) but even I can't stand the constant whining and have stopped bothering with it now.

    • McFlock 10.2

      Nats seem to be trying to get the boost they had from Brash's Orewa speech, but times have changed.

    • mac1 11.1

      Ardern down 9.4% from 79%, which is an 11% drop.

      Collins down 15% from 43.2%, which is a 34% drop.

      Which is significant? One is a small sign of the continued media and political attacks on the PM. The other is a dramatic sign of the failure of 'gotcha', smirking, racially-divisive politics.

      Collins and National should learn from the reaction to a Kaiapoi brewer's racism- withdrawal of sales, return of kegs, refusal to be associated.

  11. Dean Reynolds 12

    National's dire results reflect a broader trend – the age of neo liberalism is coming to an end & thank God for that! National, for almost 2 generations have told us that embracing naked capitalism would make us all healthy, wealthy & wise & it's taken us this long to realise they were spouting shite.

    National's dilemma is that they have no alternative philosophy to offer. The electorate has rejected their glorification of the individual & instead, embraced the safety of collectivism.National is politically & economically marooned, thrashing around in its death throes & boy, is it great to watch!

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 12.1

      "the age of neo liberalism is coming to an end & thank God for that! "

      I wish! Labour are 100% a neoliberal government and party, in my opinion. Unwilling to take any significant action against inequality and believing that the uberwealthy hold all the answers. Don’t seem worried by any sort of inflation (e.g. housing) except for wage inflation – can’t have that. Look at the pay freeze. And just today:

      Wealthy investors due to arrive on new border exemption

  12. Enough is Enough 13

    They are all fools but who would be foolish enough to want the leadership role at this stage of the government's cycle.

    History tells us New Zealand governments generally last 3 terms. There are exceptions to that but thats the gerneal life span. This government is at the peak of its popularity and so long as Jacinda stays in the top job, they will cruise to victory in 2 years term.

    If you want to be the next National PM, you would be mad to run at the next election. 2026 is what they should be targetting.

  13. CrimzonGhost 14

    So when do we get one LOL. National puts the Diss in Dysfunctional. All they can do is dis. No real solutions to anything. It's all just let's put the boot in.

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