More polling problems for Bridges

Written By: - Date published: 11:25 am, July 23rd, 2019 - 57 comments
Categories: national, polls, Simon Bridges - Tags:

Oh to be a fly on the wall of today’s National Caucus meeting.  Because from the looks of things it could be a doozy.

Barry Soper has the details of UMR polling that puts National even closer to Judith Collins 35% danger point.  From Newstalk ZB:

As National heads back into its caucus today after a three-week break there’ll be a lot of reflection as news of the Labour-commissioned UMR Research poll does the rounds.

Word around the traps has it that Labour’s slipped slightly to 42 per cent while the Greens, who’ve been asserting themselves with cleaner cars, road safety and the ever so slight tilt at the up-until-now mortal sin of genetic modification gets a flicker, have picked up slightly to 9 per cent. New Zealand First has also increased slightly with its constant, and largely correct, claims that no one could do anything without them in Government.

So it’s National that’s bleeding and it looks set to haemorrhage, with growing whispers within the party that it’ll be Simon Bridges’ blood being spilled before too long. The party has dropped beneath the psychological barrier of 40 per cent, now sitting on 38.

It’s the focus groups that’ll concern National, with Bridges having about as much traction as a bald tyre. The last UMR poll apparently showed his unfavourable rating at more than 60 per cent, while those who favoured him were in the 20s.

Interesting times …

57 comments on “More polling problems for Bridges ”

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  1. ianmac 1
    23 July 2019 at 12:00 pm

    Please do not let Simon fall by the wayside. If phoned for a Poll, just say that Simon is great and would make a fine PM. Please?

    • mary_a 1.1
      23 July 2019 at 12:46 pm

      ianmac (1) … if I had a landline phone I'd say exactly that. Simon is great for the country right now. Let's hope he continues through to the election next year.

      Despite more people including myself, preferring mobile phones for communication, we are ignored by the pollsters, who need to realise this is the 21 century and communication services have changed considerably since last century!

      • Dukeofurl 1.1.1
        23 July 2019 at 3:17 pm

        The pollsters do use mobile and maybe even online for part of the poll… you dont seem to keep up …not so connected after all

        • mary_a 1.1.1.1
          24 July 2019 at 7:26 pm

          OOPS! My mistake then.

          Thanks for that piece of info Dukeofurl. I honestly wasn't aware that mobile phones are being polled, or maybe part of the polls are done online.

  2. Stuart Munro. 2
    23 July 2019 at 12:03 pm

    They should keep Simon – he's the best they've got. Tragic really.

    • Clive Macann 2.1
      23 July 2019 at 12:14 pm

      Simon is the current Governments secret weapon.

      Just like having an icon Kiwi coaching the Wallabies. They have never recovered from that period.

  4. mac1 4
    23 July 2019 at 12:44 pm

    It may be that the one bad poll for Simon Bridges that Damien Grant referred to in his 21 July opinion piece in the NZ Herald has arrived.

    Parliament today will be a 'do not miss'. I wonder whether Winston Peters will be making references to wooden stakes and dragon slaying……..

    I found some notes that I took at a meeting held 8/8/18 locally by Simon Bridges. He said it would be "pretty historic to be a one term government." He said "the government will return unless they've been knocked in the head."

    I noted also that he had a nice sense of self-deprecation.

    The way the polls are is that he certainly has not achieved any knockout blows, and that this government will proceed into a second term. Will National slide down as it did in 2002 to 22%?

    How many National PMs had their compassionate figure placed as a work of art in two overseas cities? How many were rumoured to be in consideration for a Nobel Prize?

    That other great indicator of the fortunes of a government- how our sports teams are performing- is also positive for this present coalition.

  5. Ed1 5
    23 July 2019 at 1:00 pm

    Soper's article was a typically shallow Herald / Newstalk ZB article, with the sort of wild speculation that is rife mid-term when polls are rightly light due to their inability to predict events more than a year away. "Word around the traps" is code for speculation I will use for my agenda. Look at a recent HDPA article. equally shallowly criticising Ardern for reasonable diplomacy in not attacking the Prime Minister of Australia on their television (with the TV commentator showing just a little bias in describing Victoria as a "socialist state!). This article was not about recording a declining National Party, it was a message to National to do follow the political opinion of a fading hack, who used to claim to be a journalist . . .

    The article is however also revealing in claiming that support for NZ First and the Green Party have increased – so much for the equally shallow "opinion" of Damian Grant that National should firmly rule out working with NZ First . . .

    The Herald however may have given their own commentary by not putting this article behind their paywall – they claim that is where they put real journalism. I don't know also whether it is significant that the Herald have a time of 6 am on the article, whereas ZB have 8:59 am. When factions within the National take to the newspapers to fight, our Government is calmly getting on with the job – I applaud the setting up of a gun register, and also the three months of select committee deliberation – it should enable purchases of ammunition and parts to be linked to owners who may be tempted to carry out illegal modifications or to carry more ammunition that legitimate use would justify.

    • tc 5.1
      23 July 2019 at 1:05 pm

      " Real journalism " thanks for the best laugh today so far.

      • Ed1 5.1.1
        23 July 2019 at 2:38 pm

        I tend to only go to the Herald or Newstalk sites when links are suggested as above, so I haven't paid to see behind the paywall to see if it is worth it. I'll look at a copy of the paper in the public library sometime.

        • Dukeofurl 5.1.1.1
          23 July 2019 at 6:24 pm

          Dont bother. They have bought back tired old ring wing commentators like Roughan to provide 'balance' to shrill right wingers like HDPA

  6. Marcus Morris 6
    23 July 2019 at 1:02 pm

    Read another piece of nonsense from National poodle Heather du what's her name in this morning's Herald. Comments from leading Australian politicians (on both sides of the political divide) suggest that they acknowledge that Jacinda had every right to put the case for not returning all New Zealand born criminals but that they are holding to their position. I cannot understand what the Herald "columnist" is writing about when she claims that the Prime Minister is saying one thing to her home audience and another when she is overseas. It seems to me that the dislike that Miss Du Plessus holds for Jacinda clearly affects her ability to write a balanced article. No doubt her email bag will be filled with plaudits by her Tory followers.

    • tc 6.1
      23 July 2019 at 1:08 pm

      It's the lack of balance that gets her the job. Like hubby just a couple of neocon hacks singing for their supper.

      They probably confer over each other's spin so it looks like independence for the sheeple.

    • Hamish Stevenson 6.2
      24 July 2019 at 10:22 am

      Ditto Stacey Kirk. She has a weekly column in which she selects a topic that she can twist to bash the coalition – usually Labour, and with particular vehemance toward Jacinda Ardern. It's getting predictable and is extremely poor journalism for a 'Political Editor'.

  7. Enough is Enough 7
    23 July 2019 at 1:33 pm

    Labour has a habit of leaking favourable UMR polls. Without seeing the trends it is more or less meaningless. Typical of today's media to be making this a story I suppose and shows how intellectually bankrupt they are for doing so.

    If however National's Curia polling is telling a story which has National consistently below 40%, then yes hard questions will be asked and I imagine the knives will be out . Especially considering the numerous failings from the current government (Kiwibuild, benefit numbers increasing, stagnant growth, no reduction in poverty, Provincial Growth Fund failing to deliver, Winston being Winston etc etc). National should be ahead with that many targets.

    My hope is that National polls around 40% (so that we have a decent sized opposition) and can at least win Northland and Whangarei, hopefully pushing out NZ1 in doing so.

    That will leave a Labour Green coalition government which can finally get on and make the real change they promised – but have failed to deliver so far.

    • Red Blooded One 7.1
      23 July 2019 at 1:56 pm

      Um! you know National already holds Northland and Whangarei eh, NZ First is not reliant on them, but if the best you can hope for is that National can "at least" win those two electorates they're in a worse position than I thought.

      • Enough is Enough 7.1.1
        23 July 2019 at 2:28 pm

        Ummm, NZf is at, or under the 5% threshold on most polls so there is a real chance they will not get back into Parliament after the election.

        Their obvious safety net (or perhaps not that obvious considering your comment) is winning Northland and/or Whangarei.

        • Dukeofurl 7.1.1.1
          23 July 2019 at 3:27 pm

          Wild stabs at reality arent working for you …give up before the hole gets deeper.

          Watch come election time National comes up with its own PGF- labour had one alongside NZF at last election- because it works. You clearly dont live in one of the struggling provinces

          • Enough is Enough 7.1.1.1.1
            23 July 2019 at 3:33 pm

            I think you are missing my point.

            I want a Labour-Green government after the next election. Only then can we see real change that won't be stopped by a very conservative NZ First. (Think CGT, emissions trading scheme, three strike laws, as example of progressive reforms that NZ First has vetoed).

            I am therefore hopeful that Winston and Shane do not win their electorates and for that to happen the National candidates will need to.

    • left_forward 7.2
      23 July 2019 at 2:01 pm

      Northland and Whangarei are already National electorates.

      Can't see why anyone in Northland would support National given the nine years of regional economic downturn created last time they were in Government

      • Enough is Enough 7.2.1
        23 July 2019 at 2:29 pm

        Nine years of regional economic downturn? Try 50.

      • Peter 7.2.2
        23 July 2019 at 3:16 pm

        Why would anyone in Northland support National given their years and years of regional economic neglect? Simple – they'd have to be masochists, thick, deluded or suffer from some other affliction. Other parties are wasting their time standing candidates in the Whangarei electorate and although Peters won Northland in a by-election that kick in the guts and the consequent chagrin and endless advertising by the incumbent MP will see him re-elected.

        The National efforts have seen the deluded thinking that had the 2017 election not gone how it did, by now the work would be well-advanced on a four lane Warkworth to Whangarei highway. You know the one that the necessary billions hadn't even been budgeted for.

        • Kat 7.2.2.1
          23 July 2019 at 5:11 pm

          Federated Farmers and Transport, very powerful, influential and backward looking lobbyists. Imagine a 21st century rail link between Auckland and the North, including freight line to Marsden.

          As long as the likes of Semenoff Transport exist so will the blue fog of delusion in the North.

        • left_forward 7.2.2.2
          24 July 2019 at 12:45 pm

          The political problem for the left in Northland relates in my view to the Maori electorates. Not that I am advocating change (Maori representation must be protected), but it is important to understand and acknowledge how general electorates with high Maori populations are distorted by them. Northland, not unlike some other regions in NZ, is a region of two distinct socio-economic / ethnic / political halves. When a large section of one half is taken away, the other has space to dominate.

    • Ed1 7.3
      23 July 2019 at 2:41 pm

      I haven't noticed Labour leaking UMR polls, but at present there is no indication that they have done one recently, so there is nothing to be meaningless, except perhaps the article from Soper, who I doubt many think is Labour, but was probably not "leaking' anything anyway . . . Curia are not the same as UMR . . .

      • Dukeofurl 7.3.1
        23 July 2019 at 3:31 pm

        UMR arent a pollster exclusively for Labour , they share the numbers with other commercial clients, thats why we regularly hear about them.

        National has exclusive deal with Curia, wont even share the numbers outside the top leadership and McClay, who is Farrars polling contact point.

  8. Nick 8
    23 July 2019 at 1:38 pm

    Allen and Soper are like little 'married' gnats sucking on the blood of the elephant called NZ and spitting it out on TV, internet, print and radio, but avoiding the elephants ass (aka national party).

  9. Fireblade 9
    23 July 2019 at 1:58 pm

    It doesn't matter who the loser of the opposition is. Si, Jude or Pulya would all just be seat warmers until Luxon takes over.

  10. Phil 10
    23 July 2019 at 1:58 pm

    a habit of leaking favourable UMR polls

    Yeah, leaks of internal polling has always been particularly baffling piece of non-news to me. Maybe Soper had a big night and needed something to fill otherwise dead air.

  11. alwyn 11
    23 July 2019 at 2:01 pm

    Isn't this amazing. Labour passes out numbers to one of their hack journalists which they claim are poll result on the popularity of the Opposition.

    Just coincidence of course that the are the morning that Parliament sits after a 3 week break. The managed to hide their Housing Minister quintet for the whole time but now they are going to be exposed to the House with only the old duck in the chair to divert attention.

    Is it any surprise they are trying a new diversion?

    • marty mars 11.1
      23 July 2019 at 2:31 pm

      keep fiddling titanic boy ha ha ha

    • Dukeofurl 11.2
      23 July 2019 at 3:23 pm

      labour doesnt pass out its numbers like you suggest.

      Unlike National and Curia who have 'exclusive' polling results , UMR does political polls for Labour AND some large companies at the same time .

      Thats how the results get into the public domain, they go further than a few people inside the party.

    • Stuart Munro. 11.3
      23 July 2019 at 4:19 pm

      Think of it as charity:

      Reporter: Got anything I can write about today?

      Random Labour Minister: Not really, we've been on a break eh.

      Reporter: Oh please! I've got to feed my kids & I'd hate to have to actually work.

      RLM: Maybe I can get you the poll, hang on – talks into phone – Can I give *** the poll? Righto. Yeah the chicken entrails don't look too good for Simon.

  12. Rae 12
    23 July 2019 at 2:07 pm

    Chin up, Simon, you are doing an amazing job (for the govt)

  13. Andre 13
    23 July 2019 at 2:20 pm

    Hang in there Simon. Remember Helen had a long spell of being unpopular but she shook it off to get three terms as one of the best regarded Prime Ministers ever!

    (past events no guarantee of future performance)

  14. Kevin 14
    23 July 2019 at 2:35 pm

    I am dumbfounded at Bridges ability to champion a cause that is at odds with what the majority want. It's almost as if he wants to go down in flames.

    • Incognito 14.1
      23 July 2019 at 2:40 pm

      He’s a man of principles and convictions (not the criminal ones, of course) and beats his own drum: ploink, ploink, tweet.

  15. Professor Longhair 15
    23 July 2019 at 3:44 pm

    A nice visual representation of this tick Bridges coming up against public opinion….



  17. mike 17
    23 July 2019 at 6:22 pm

    there can we find the green attack ad on bridges

  18. Muttonbird 18
    23 July 2019 at 7:28 pm

    This poll backs up the Three/Reid Research poll last month. This is of course two poll agreeing with each other which is what we are told is the way to look at polls.

    Labour’s secret internal polling reveals National below 40 percent on 38 percent, similar to the latest Newshub Reid-Research poll which had National on 37.4 percent.

    The outlier poll in this equation is the TV1/CB poll which had National on 42%. That poll can clearly be dismissed now.

    National are in free fall and it could happen to a nicer bunch.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/07/labour-s-secret-internal-polling-reveals-national-below-40-percent.html

    • Anne 18.1
      23 July 2019 at 8:45 pm

      Call it coincidence if you like, but I had an interesting automatic land-line call earlier this evening. No identification as to who was calling… just straight into a short political poll.[Press one for strongly agree etc.] I hung up after the second question because it came across to me as push- polling.

      The first question was straight out of the Nat. Party playbook. It was designed to influence voters into thinking this government was all about increasing every-one’s taxes. The second was the usual question [if there was an election tomorrow…] and the first party named was National. That was the point I hung up.

      Could it be the Nats had a collective heart attack over the 38% rating released by Soper, and have stooped to their usual chicanery? I live in a predominantly Nat area so if they are choosing to call voters based on where they live, then they are going to get the kind of result they are looking for.

      So, if a poll is leaked to Tova O’Brien in the next few days reversing the poll figures supplied by Soper we’ll know what is going on.

      Edit: I doubt it was Curia because I don’t think Farrar would run to staining his reputation as a professional pollster with a spot of push polling.

  19. MickeyBoyle 19
    23 July 2019 at 10:16 pm

    You're delusional if you think National are not a strong chance at winning the next election. Pre election polling means nothing, National will be in the 40s somewhere. All it would take is for the Greens or especially Winston to fail to make 5% and the Nats are right a good chance of making this current government, a one term government.

    • left_forward 19.1
      24 July 2019 at 12:55 pm

      Unlikely for the Greens (to go under 5%) therefore unlikely for National to win anything.

  20. sumsuch 20
    23 July 2019 at 11:01 pm

    I think Bridges has been caught out in the same political talk that has always been. Genial Keith Holyoake being paid off by a farm in the Wairapara. But whenever Bridges utters we see the under-structure. Jacinda , at least, has a back-story.

  21. Henry Filth 21
    24 July 2019 at 1:57 am

    I think that it's a little sad to see Mister Bridges get such a hard time. It's been very good of him to stand up and take one for the team until the donors tell the party who their next leader will be.

    He deserves some recognition, not this constant denigration, for his small yet public-spirited act.

    A nice ambassadorship somewhere warm in appreciation?

  22. peterh 22
    24 July 2019 at 7:56 am

    Who cares if Bridges stays or goes there is no one in the Nat lot who could get more than10% prefered PM the best chance Judith may get 8%

  23. Treetop 23
    24 July 2019 at 9:58 am

    The latest poll reflects what a useless government National would be were they re elected.

    It is unfortunate for the Labour/NZ coalition that they have had to do so much catch up with the wages of nurses/teachers. Housing has needed to be rethought. Better to rethink, than to not eventually deliver.

    Finally a model which has a chance of turning around the stats of having children removed is being implemented. There will be a much better outcome were housing available for women who chose to leave, to protect their children and theirselves. Once a child is removed, Oranga Tamariki need to think where the person who had the child removed goes for comfort. When a down ward spiral it is then so much harder for the child to be returned. I do understand that children need to be safe and protected.

  24. CHCoff 24
    24 July 2019 at 6:12 pm

    I don't see why it matters

    John Key's left a good supply of ammunition against National laying around, that's never really been used, for at least another couple of elections would have thought.