My personal view is that Labour’s on the ground game and Michael Wood’s far superior standing as a candidate in comparison to Parmar will mean that Labour will win this seat comfortably.
It is not often I will go out on a limb and say this but the impression that I have received from on the ground is pretty strong.
Hope you’re correct, but regardless of competence, the party vote last time in Mt Roskill was overwhelmingly National, Goff’s majority went down considerably and whether you like it or not there are many on the right who regard Goff as one of them. Things mightn’t go to plan for Labour.
I sincerely hope you’re right ms. You usually are. A string of injuries on and off this year left me unable to physically participate in the byelection. Please keep us informed as the results roll in. Thanks.
Looks like you called it right. With each result coming in his lead is extending more and more. National are now coming up with all these excuses for not being able to take the seat from what they have tried to paint as a weak Labour Party. The fact they had more party votes for National in the seat last election should have seen this as a close race right down to the wire and not Labour pulling further and further away.
Why is Wood far superior?, compared to Parmars skill set he looks very average, no decent qualifications, no real skills or experience, looks like another head office bot who brings very little value to Parliament.
At least with Parmar you get a bit of diversity instead of another white bread lackey.
Bah – “skills and work experience”. Like it’s a job interview where that sort of stale empty language is treated seriously.
What matters in a politician is a a moral vision. See – Key hasn’t got one of those but BM could witter on endlessly about his “skills and work experience”. All those skills and all that experience directed at totally pointless and socially useless ends for the greater glory of Merrill Lynch. Spare me.
You haven’t had the experience of watching Michael (or Julie for that matter) working. They aren’t mucheck on being flashy. But they are smart and dedicated to whatever they are working on and focused on whoever they are working for.
I looked at Parmar and her quals, work experience, and exposure to the electorate and concluded she was that’s as soon as she was in the running.
Basically it was the difference between being a politician for selfies in the way that Key promoted her campaign and being a good politician. Parmar simply doesn’the have the experience to do things like to tell Key to piss off out of a LOCAL electorate or at least to actually be helpful in what he did do.
Nice try. The problem, of course, with putting an incumbent list MP up as your candidate is that voters have a parliamentary skill set to assess. And on that score Parmar has been a very average MP. Add to that the massive fail over Wood’s fabricated “assault” early on in the campaign and I reckon it’s safe to say her parliamentary days are numbered.
If labour wins in a landslide, it’ll be portrayed as business as usual and nothing for national to worry about. Anything else however will trigger another round of hyper critical bully pile ons by the governments sycophants in the corporate media.
With 25% of the vote counted, Wood is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Parmar has. I didn’t follow the campaign closely, but she didn’t seem to be a very impressive candidate.
Meanwhile, in the Uk’s Richmond Park By-Election a couple of days ago, failed Tory London Mayoral candidate and former Conservative MP, Zac Goldsmith, loses his seat, with the Lib Dems pulling off one of the most spectacular political upsets of recent years and denting the Conservatives’ narrow majority in the House of Commons into the bargain.
Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney overturned Goldsmith’s massive 23,000 majority, at last year’s general election, to win by 1,800 votes.
Richmond Park Labour voters doing what Labour voters used to do in 1990s Uk By-Elections in Blue areas where the Lib Dems had historically come second … voted strategically en masse .
Ha-Haaa, What’s the bet Young Master Farrar and chums will be busy spinning the notion that Labour’s majority has been slashed !!! from 8,100 to a mere 6,500 (in the process, ignoring the steep fall in turnout).
Being that this was always going to be a Labour victory (sitting government yada yada) the victory for National has been the amount of money Labour has had to spend on this campaign which means less for the general election and its not like Labour has money to spare anyway
Was it always going to be a Labour victory? National were making positive noises early on, they sure thought they had a chance and their proxies in the media were pumping it as much as they could. But, let’s face it, it was another pretty terrible by-election campaign from Stephen Joyce.
I could be wrong but as I understand it no sitting Government had ever won a by-election in a seat it did not already hold and if I know this then I’m pretty sure National HQ knew it as well
I think this whole exercise was designed to get Labour to spend money it didn’t need to on a by-election it was always going to win
So all you have to do is calculate how much money Labour has which by all accounts isn’t much and subtract the cost of the by-election which normally it wouldn’t have needed to spend as much on and suddenly they have even less money to spend on the general election
You seem fixated by the money? Well how much did Trump have to spend compared to Clinton? And how did that work out?
Give over bro, this was another disastrous by-election campaign from National. They squandered a real good chance to restore their parliamentary majority.
I don’t think I claimed it was a new dawn for anybody actually, but I do think it shows a fragility for National going into next year that’s not being reflected in opinion polling at the moment. Their brand is starting to get a bit dulled and even the PM can’t rescue a dud candidate. He spent most of last week telling us that a poor result would be terminal for Little’s leadership. Well that didn’t happen. All things being equal this is a loss for National given that they won the party vote in this seat at the last election.
In the 2014 general election, Goff won with 55.8% of electorate votes.
Even if you account for the lack of a Green candidate in the by-election and assume every single Green voter turned out for Wood, (in reality it’s unlikely that’s the case) Coates only got 5% of the vote in the general election. That means Wood turned out an extra 4.5% of the vote at minimum. He did very well in the electorate, and it bodes well for the General Election IMO.
(although arguably, Parmar was a terrible candidate who didn’t do a good job at empathy and social intelligence, but that’s like, half of the National caucus anyway…)
Whatever factors you consider as in play here, Wood turned out a lot of supporters for a by-election.
Nobody said it was a new dawn – you are doing the straw man thing again.
It’s simply what happens when someone decent, personable and pretty smart goes up against an absolutely horrible candidate who looks and sounds aggressive and self-seeking.
or alternatively you could view it as the largest sample and most representative poll carried out this year ….800 odd telephone calls of dubious worth don’t compare to this swing.
If you are concerned that they have none to spare you could donate some. You sound like a fair-minded sort of guy, why not even the game up a bit? All good eh?
Oh wait – you actually want it to be unfairly tipped in favour of the party with the wealthiest supporters. Maybe that’s your definition of democracy – wealthy people buying influence and success?
It is appropriate to add both the Labour and Green votes together specifically because the Greens did not stand a candidate. Otherwise the percentage swing to Labour would be even greater than the 7% given above., more like 9.5%. And that larger figure would be statistically less accurate.
So go ahead choose which swing you want. Me, I’ll stick with 7%.
It’s actually conservative to add both percentages together and then compare with the Labour result in the by-election, as not all Green electorate voters will have crossed over. (some of the people specifically vote for Green candidates because they won’t ever vote for a Labour candidate, for instance) It’s likely the delta is more than that.
It suggests we could see a bigger party vote for Labour in Auckland next year if they do anywhere near as well as they did in the by-election.
I certainly liked his reaction to Parmar’s husband bad mouthing Julie Farley. I thought, now that is the sort of guy Labour needs to stick it to those Tory assholes.
I’m surprised National didn’t put more effort into this. If all the current polling we’re getting treated to is correct and going on the last election in this seat they could have managed something here with the right candidate and some well thought out overtures to Mt Roskill electors. It would have been an easy way to restore their majority in the House. The fact they didn’t suggests that, perhaps, it’s not quite as rosy on that side of politics as we’re lead to believe. Or maybe Stephen Joyce is just an idiot?
Heavily contesting this election by National could have been seen as a dummy run for next year’s general election. Trouncing Wood would have given a great story to say that there is no alternative and that the actual election was done and dusted. Sucking Labour into this approach would have seen it have too invest more in the Mt Roskill campaign. (What would have the Green Party done? Help Labour financially?). Making it more difficult in the general election campaign.
But this election was not played that way. National seems to have misjudged by flying in a candidate against a local. Perhaps internal polling showed it always to be losing.
Even so, the story of National sleepwalking to a 4th term is disturbed. A 7% Labour/Green swing is enough to throw the 2017 election way open.
national put in a big effort john key campaigned in mt roskill for 7 days parmjeet parmer had hording everywhere they thought they were going i win but labour had hundreds of activists door knock today getting there voters out and it worked i think there was even greens helping as well make no mistake national has taken a real thumping to night
No it’s reflecting the total lack of empathy that Key and many in his party are displaying to our country
High house prices No wage increases and a general lack of security for your and your families future
I’d just like to pause here and thank the electoral commission, who run our elections with a quiet, democratic efficiency that Americans can only dream about.
Is anyone able to fill me in on what happened today please? Some sort of protest, electoral commission doing a follow up on something. Thankies.
Congrats Michael Wood 🙂 good work, boots on the ground pays off big time, big up’s to all involved, well done you fellas, really proud of everyone’s efforts, team work, awesomeness.
yeah…struggling to come up with a suitably pithy comment for the look on one of those faces…best is along the lines of ‘some village has lost its idiot’….
There you see ….. dissing Labour has started already – despite previous Nat gloating at the start of the by-election that (a) Wood would get nowhere near the Goff majority of 6000 and (b) boundary changes made it less likely Wood would win !
Hi Jenny, knowing you can get a little bit hysterical I should point out my post was in no way dissing Labour at all. I’m excited for Michael and so pleased also that at last Andrew has had the opportunity to finally experience a night out celebrating a win at electoral level.
I have never read anything resembling hysteria from Jenny Kirk. Quite the opposite. Perhaps if you had expressed your claimed pleasure at Michael’s win, then Jenny and others (including me) wouldn’t have concluded you were dissing Labour.
Putting your rather sexist use of the term ‘hysterical’ to one side I would have thought it was National who were a little bit desperate to experience a night out celebrating a win at electoral (by-election) level?
Haha. Don’t get your panties in a bunch Scott. No sexism intended in my comment. If you have deemed hysterical as indicating ala femine I’d suggest you need to get out and meet more men 😉
Hi Hanwort. I was inferring that the low turnout is probably attributed to people not seeing a bi-election as important as a general election. And by the way…that’s exactly how it works. Please feel free to google turnouts for bi-elections per electorate versus turnout for general election per electorate.
Except that isn’t that a massive fail on National’s part? since they thought they were in for a chance and winning this would have restored their majority in the House for the rest of this parliament?
With the fact National had a majority in the party votes last election in this seat it should have been a much closer race coming down to the wire for Labour even with a low turnout. National is going on about how weak of a party Labour is via their many mouth pieces and tame MSM. This shows just how much of a lie that is. Far from being week, Labour is stronger than ever.
All credit to Michael Wood and all the people who got stuck in and made the result what it is.
But it can’t only be about personalities. With Northland showing how the regions think and Roskill as an indicator for Auckland, surely BM can’t be the only one doing BMs tonight.
Woohoo! Congratulations, Michael Wood, and if you’re reading this, congratuiations Julie Fairey – from the news reports it looked like you had to bite your tongue through some near-lethal levels of bullshit from various people and news media during this campaign.
Matthew Hooton @MatthewHootonNZ
That’s a terrible result by Parmar in #MtRoskill. @AndrewLittleMP safe to election. Parmar won’t be heard of again. #nzpol
7:39 PM – 3 Dec 2016
If everyone who voted for the Government in Mt Roskill at the 2014 General Election (ie those Party-Voting Nat / ACT / Maori / UF / Cons) had given their support to National’s Parmar at this By-Election … and if all 2014 Opposition Party voters (Lab / Green / IMP / NZF) had voted for Wood, then the % would have been:
Don’t get your hopes up. Parmar was an awful candidate. Different in a General once Key pops out a few “akshullys” for the delight of the punters. Nobody is going to extrapolate by asking the question of why such a horrible candidate found a natural home in the National Party.
there are a multitude of horrible candidates, many of them Ministers however it is the movement AWAY from government support that is telling….it is larger than could reasonably be expected from the usual by election bias and this is from a background of supposed increasing gov support and weak opposition according to recent polling.
Does it indicate a general election result? obviously not but it certainly casts (more) doubt on the veracity of the polls
Phil phoned my Mum on her 09-627 number.
The “electorate office” called back on same day – tell us more about your concerns.
Very well done Mt Roskill Labour Machine !
My Mum, historically Labour !!, and despite Subgen corruption and too many marbles – astute.
Boom!!
Congrats to Michael Wood MP and to the wider Labour team. This result helps to vindicate Goff’s decision to stand aside and run for mayor, and it’s notable how many mayors of our major cities either ran on a Labour ticket or had strong Labour links. Of course, turnout is lower for those elections, too, but the motivated people vote.
Now Labour needs to look at pulling in more of the less motivated. There was someone on this site a day or two ago taunting people about being a swinging voter and saying she had more power than people with fixed political values. She was being bloody annoying, but she was also right, to a certain extent. Some people will always vote Labour/left, and those people need to be valued and to see their values reflected in the policies and decisions of the party, but not at the cost of attracting Mr and Ms In-the-Middle. Clark understood that (and got criticised for not being radical enough) – but over the course of three terms she and her team achieved a lot for NZ as a whole and for vulnerable NZers in particular. Key has also understood it and (though I can’t stand him) he’s managed to take the centre voters with him.
Interesting side note: Was in the Zookeepers Daughter last night and his royal ponytail puller came in with his canditate. Now it’s the first time, I’ve seen him avoid parts of the room. Yeah there was the usual people wanting photos with him, but those who looked like they did real work for a living, he ignored. Also funny quite a few hateful glears at him. Again unusual, for the royal ponytail puller, normally it’s league fans, and queer folk who give him shit.
Our cornor was ignored, could have been the wee ditty – we got 29 reason to hate key, don’t seal them up — that rang out a few times.
Dear oh dear !, They’re not taking this slap-in-the-face terribly well over at Kiwiblog.
A few comments from that highly-esteemed organ:
Actually the PM has better things to do with his time than try and pander to the losers who live in the shithole called Mt. Roskill.
The General Election will be won in places that are populated by people with a degree of intelligence.
How many Mt Roskill residents didn’t let their wives out to vote.
very changed demographics in the new seat of ‘Mt. Somalia’, apathy by the diminishing number of Nats who still live in the bloody dump, not really a surprise..
There you go, Mt Roskill … that’s National Voters’ frank, unvarnished, sincerely-held view of you and your family.
These people are the real National party ,the same people selling the brighter future the biggest con job since the Decent Society in 1990 to New Zealanders.
The people they rely on to support them are the ones with the lack of intelligence.
I am glad this is in full view and for everyone to see & access (and respond to). There also is a point to make in favour of online anonymity. For some people it can be liberating and cathartic to express their views online and others love to wallow in ‘filth’; each to their own or should that be live and let live?
I agree, but it does give Labour a much-needed taste of ‘winning’, which is a boost to morale and confidence that cannot be underestimated. I hope it will re-calibrate some of the MSM as well.
I think Labour is heading into a very challenging and exciting year; if they can maintain a sense of humour and fun they’ll pull through o.k. I also think Andrew Little has a calming and stabilising & consolidating effect on the Labour caucus, which is perhaps not too surprising given his background.
“It does give Labour a much-needed taste of ‘winning”’
Indeed.
Nevertheless, while I also agree Labour is heading into a very challenging year, at this stage, there is little for them or voters to be excited about.
Policy to date is lacking and failing to resonate while their delivery requires a lot of improvement.
Therefore, unless they got something new to pull out of their hat which they can deliver well and get voters excited, they are going to be in a heap of trouble come election day.
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Currently the government's strategy for reducing transport emissions hinges on boosting vehicle fuel-efficiency, via the clean car standard and clean car discount, and some improvements to public transport. The former has been hugely successful, and has clearly set us on the right path, but its also not enough, and will ...
Buzz from the Beehive Before he announced his Cabinet yesterday, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced he would be flying to Australia next week to meet that country’s Prime Minister. And before Kieran McAnulty had time to say “Three Waters” after his promotion to the Local Government portfolio, he was dishing ...
The quarterly labour market statistics were released this morning, showing that unemployment has risen slightly to 3.4%. There are now 99,000 people unemployed - 24,000 fewer than when Labour took office. So, I guess the Reserve Bank's plan to throw people out of work to stop wage rises "inflation", and ...
Another night of heavy rain, flooding, damage to homes, and people worried about where the hell all this water is going to go as we enter day twenty two of rain this year.Honestly if the government can’t sell Three Waters on the back of what has happened with storm water ...
* Dr Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular reforms in water and DHB centralisation ...
Hi,It’s weird to me that in 2023 we still have people falling for multi-level marketing schemes (MLMs for short). There are Netflix documentaries about them, countless articles, and last year we did an Armchaired and Dangerous episode on them.Then you check a ticketing website like EventBrite and see this shit ...
Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
Shortly, the absolute state of Wayne Brown. But before that, something I wrote four years ago for the council’s own media machine. It was a day-in-the-life profile of their many and varied and quite possibly unnoticed vital services. We went all over Auckland in 48 hours for the story, the ...
Completed reads for January Lilith, by George MacDonald The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge Christabel (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge The Saga of Ragnar Lodbrok, by Anonymous The Lay of Kraka (poem), by Anonymous 1066 and All That, by W.C. Sellar and R.J. ...
Pity the poor Brits. They just can’t catch a break. After years of reporting of lying Boris Johnson, a change to a less colourful PM in Rishi Sunak has resulted in a smooth media pivot to an end-of-empire narrative. The New York Times, no less, amplifies suggestions that Blighty ...
On that day all the springs of the great deep burst forth, and the floodgates of the heavens were opened. And rain fell on the earth.Genesis 6:11-12THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS that dumped a record-breaking amount of rain on Auckland this anniversary weekend will reoccur with ever-increasing frequency. The planet’s atmosphere is ...
Buzz from the Beehive There has been plenty to keep the relevant Ministers busy in flood-stricken Auckland over the past day or two. But New Zealand, last time we looked, extends north of Auckland into Northland and south of the Bombay Hills all the way to the bottom of the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters When early settlers came to the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers before the California Gold Rush, Indigenous people warned them that the Sacramento Valley could become an inland sea when great winter rains came. The storytellers described water filling the ...
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
Dr Bryce Edwards writes – Last night’s opinion polls answered the big question of whether a switch of prime minister would really be a gamechanger for election year. The 1News and Newshub polls released at 6pm gave the same response: the shift from Jacinda Ardern to Chris Hipkins ...
Kia ora e te whānau. Today, we mark the anniversary of the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi - and our commitment to working in partnership with Māori to deliver better outcomes and tackle the big issues, together. ...
We’ve just announced a massive infrastructure investment to kick-start new housing developments across New Zealand. Through our Infrastructure Acceleration Fund, we’re making sure that critical infrastructure - like pipes, roads and wastewater connections - is in place, so thousands more homes can be built. ...
The Green Party is joining more than 20 community organisations to call for an immediate rent freeze in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, after reports of landlords intending to hike rents after flooding. ...
When Chris Hipkins took on the job of Prime Minister, he said bread and butter issues like the cost of living would be the Government’s top priority – and this week, we’ve set out extra support for families and businesses. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to provide direct support to low-income households and to stop subsidising fossil fuels during a climate crisis. ...
The tools exist to help families with surging costs – and as costs continue to rise it is more urgent than ever that we use them, the Green Party says. ...
An historic Northland pā site with links to Ngāpuhi chief Hongi Hika is to be handed back to iwi, after collaboration by government, private landowners and local hapū. “It is fitting that the ceremony for the return of the Pākinga Pā site is during Waitangi weekend,” said Regional Development Minister ...
The Government is investing in a suite of initiatives to unlock Māori and Pacific resources, talent and knowledge across the science and research sector, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Two new funds – He tipu ka hua and He aka ka toro – set to ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for India tomorrow as she continues to reconnect Aotearoa New Zealand to the world. The visit will begin in New Delhi where the Foreign Minister will meet with the Vice President Hon Jagdeep Dhankar and her Indian Government counterparts, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and ...
Over $10 million infrastructure funding to unlock housing in Whangārei The purchase of a 3.279 hectare site in Kerikeri to enable 56 new homes Northland becomes eligible for $100 million scheme for affordable rentals Multiple Northland communities will benefit from multiple Government housing investments, delivering thousands of new homes for ...
The Government is supporting one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s most significant historic sites, the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, as it continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. “The Waitangi Treaty Grounds are a taonga that we should protect and look after. This additional support will mean people can continue to ...
A memorial event at a key battle site in the New Zealand land wars is an important event to mark the progress in relations between Māori and the Crown as we head towards Waitangi Day, Minister for Te Arawhiti Kelvin Davis said. The Battle of Ohaeawai in June 1845 saw ...
More Police officers are being deployed to the frontline with the graduation of 54 new constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. The graduation ceremony for Recruit Wing 362 at Te Rauparaha Arena in Porirua was the first official event for Stuart Nash since his reappointment as Police ...
The Government is unlocking an additional $700,000 in support for regions that have been badly hit by the recent flooding and storm damage in the upper North Island. “We’re supporting the response and recovery of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Northland, and Bay of Plenty regions, through activating Enhanced Taskforce Green to ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has welcomed the announcement that Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, Princess Anne, will visit New Zealand this month. “Princess Anne is travelling to Aotearoa at the request of the NZ Army’s Royal New Zealand Corps of Signals, of which she is Colonel in Chief, to ...
A new Government and industry strategy launched today has its sights on growing the value of New Zealand’s horticultural production to $12 billion by 2035, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our food and fibre exports are vital to New Zealand’s economic security. We’re focussed on long-term strategies that build on ...
25 cents per litre petrol excise duty cut extended to 30 June 2023 – reducing an average 60 litre tank of petrol by $17.25 Road User Charge discount will be re-introduced and continue through until 30 June Half price public transport fares extended to the end of June 2023 saving ...
The strong economy has attracted more people into the workforce, with a record number of New Zealanders in paid work and wages rising to help with cost of living pressures. “The Government’s economic plan is delivering on more better-paid jobs, growing wages and creating more opportunities for more New Zealanders,” ...
The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
I was told to avoid gluten. I was told it was all in my head. When 10% of women experience endometriosis, why does it take so long for its classic symptoms to be recognised? It was 2011 when I had my first period. It felt like a very exciting moment ...
In Canberra Chris Hipkins has touched down in Australia’s capital – his first overseas visit since becoming prime minister just three weeks ago. After disembarking from the Airforce Boeing, Hipkins was greeted by his former caucus colleague and current high commissioner to Australia, Dame Annette King. The pair hugged on ...
The rise of TikTok-inspired ‘algospeak’ is making online communication even more of a nightmare, writes SYSCA‘s Lucy Blakiston.This is an excerpt from the Shit You Should Care About daily newsletter – sign up here.Content warning: sexual assault The other day I was chatting with a friend about algospeak – ...
School, finally, is back this week in the nation’s largest city to howls of relief from many parents and (one hopes) some students also. Yet the resumption of normal service shouldn’t obscure a curious inconsistency. The past few weeks have shown ...
MediaRoom column: On the eve of a Cabinet decision on the fate of the proposed public broadcasting merger, questions emerge over the engagement by the TVNZ chief executive of two former National government aides to change the narrative and push TVNZ's view on the Government's plan Within weeks of taking over ...
Olivia Sisson performs a good old-fashioned cost comparison – and it might change the way you buy your veges.The price of food in New Zealand is shocking. So, how to cope? The recommendations are starting to feel like the avo-toast-flat-white trope. Cut those items out and there it is, ...
An early morning fire at an egg-laying farm in Orini, Waikato yesterday has claimed the lives of at least 50,000 hens. The farm is operated by New Zealand’s largest egg producer Zeagold, the country’s biggest egg producer, whose eggs are sold under ...
The Natural and Built Environment Bill and Spatial Planning Bill will make resource management issues worse and should be withdrawn, Federated Farmers has told the Environment Select Committee. "Farmers agree the costly, slow and unpredictable processes ...
New police minister Stuart Nash has met with new health minister Ayesha Verrall to talk about the issue with the aim of preventing ram raids. Nash wants to speed up the scheduled reduction of dairies that can sell cigarettes. Nash made the comments at a police graduation ceremony in Porirua last ...
It’s Tuesday, February 7 and welcome to a special edition of The Spinoff’s live updates. Stewart Sowman-Lund will be on the ground in Canberra today as PM Chris Hipkins meets with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese. What you need to know Chris Hipkins will meet Australian PM ...
Politicking by politicians was less overt but whether there was less politics probably depends on your definition of the word and what lay beneath the optics, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Why is it becoming harder to achieve debt-free status? Money Sweetspot is a new company that uses compassion and incentives to help people pay off their debts. Co-founder Sasha Lockley talks to Simon about using gamification to increase financial literacy, breaking the cycle of poverty, and how she intends to ...
Prime minister Chris Hipkins is heading to Australia today for his first face-to-face meeting with an international leader. He’ll be meeting with Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese during his single-day visit to Canberra. The Spinoff live updates will be on the ground in Australia as the meeting takes place and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By C Raina MacIntyre, Professor of Global Biosecurity, NHMRC Principal Research Fellow, Head, Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney Pexels/Uriel Mont The question of whether and to what extent face masks work to prevent respiratory infections such as COVID and influenza ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Mackinnon, Professor and Director, Centre for Clean Energy Technologies and Practices, Queensland University of Technology Superconducting cables transmit electicity without lossesShutterstock For most of us, transmitting power is an invisible part of modern life. You flick the switch and the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Munro, Professor, Faculty of Education and Arts, Australian Catholic University Shutterstock Many students are returning to school this year face a renewed focus on grammar. Just before Christmas, the NSW curriculum was overhauled to include the “explicit teaching of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debra Dudek, Associate professor, School of Arts and Humanities, Edith Cowan University Universal Life is full of surprises – some pleasant and some painful – but there can be no surprises without expectations. We expect the sun to come up ...
News stories have honed in on the fact Wayne Brown and his staff were left off a ‘vital’ email distribution list on the night of the Auckland floods. But internal emails from the mayor’s chief of staff show he was getting regular briefings from officials.Internal council emails obtained by ...
In a reality shaped by climate crisis, how do you think and feel about the changed present – and the changing future – without spiralling into despair?In the midst of a flood there’s not much time to think about the future. But when the water recedes, the reality of ...
06 Feb The news today of the death of 75,000 chickens at an egg farm in Waikato is yet another outrageous and avoidable tragedy. “The fact that so many hens died in this fire in the Waikato is a testament to the systemic neglect and disregard ...
Lawmakers are being urged to bridge the legal and scientific divide over braided rivers. David Williams reports What is a river? More particularly, what is a braided river? An expert group known as The Land The Law Forgot is urging politicians considering the Natural and Built Environment Bill – one ...
Fiordland National Park is the crowning jewel of our national parks and arguably our greatest tourist magnet. But conservationists warn that marine life has been put at risk because the park’s waters are unprotected. Heidi Bendikson’s investigation shows they are right. Tourists on the 'M.V Sinbad' clamber to the bow to ...
As Auckland copes with unprecedented flooding, Mairi Jay points to lessons from extreme weather events in British Columbia that could be vitally important for policy-makers and administrators here “Expect extreme weather events” the climate scientists tell us. But sometimes the extreme is beyond our imagining. On Thursday January 26, New Zealand’s Met Service predicted ...
UK and US deals for NZ novels Three of the best New Zealand novels of recent years are about to be published in the UK and the US. All three books – She's a Killer by Kirsten McDougall, Greta and Valdin by Rebecca K Reilly, and The New Animals ...
Confidence from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell kept markets buoyant. But mortgage payments and job losses could dampen consumer spending in NZ ...
Someone left the Swift out in the rain - insurance agents are overloaded with calls about flood-damaged vehicles It’s been a big week for testing the submarining abilities of the family station wagon. Thousands of cars around the upper North Island have been written off following the devastating floods of ...
The first of the air force's new Poseidon aircraft has landed in New Zealand. But is this the sort of workhorse the military needs? Our old heroes of the Air Force, the P-3 Orions, have retired after 56 years of service - and the first of the flash new Poseidon ...
Chris Hipkins’ first overseas trip as Prime Minister comes on relatively friendly territory. But while there have been marked improvements in the trans-Tasman relationship since a change in Canberra, there is still plenty to discuss, as Sam Sachdeva writes In many ways, it is fitting Chris Hipkins should make Australia the ...
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RNZ News New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has described today’s Waitangi Day dawn service as moving and says he welcomes the shift away from a focus on politics. Hundreds of people gathered before dawn to commemorate 183 years since Te Tiriti o Waitangi was signed. Hipkins said the national ...
By Hilaire Bule, RNZ Pacific Vanuatu correspondent in Port Vila Vanuatu’s prime minister has stressed any future employment within the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat must be from MSG member countries. Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsakau, who is also chair of the MSG Secretariat, made the statement following the recruitment of ...
SPECIAL REPORT:By Yamin Kogoya On Friday 10 February 2023, it will be one month since the Papua Governor Lukas Enembe was “kidnapped” at a local restaurant during his lunch hour by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and security forces. The crisis began in September 2022, when Governor Enembe was ...
By Kālino Lātū, editor of Kaniva News Dr Sitiveni Halapua, former deputy leader of Tonga’s Democratic Movement, has died aged 74. Born on February 13, 1949, he was a respected academic, a pioneer of Tonga’s democratic reforms and pioneer of a conflict resolution system based on traditional practices. Halapua earned ...
COMMENTARY:By Richard Naidu in Suva Five weeks on from Christmas Eve, I think most of us are still a bit stunned at what has happened in Fiji. A new government came to power in dramatic circumstances. It took not one but two Sodelpa management board meetings to change it, ...
By Red Tsounga Another house done, and onto the next . . . Volunteers working in Mount Roskill community over the past few days helping those suffering from Auckland’s flash flood devastation have done us proud. Tremendous work by everybody. Here are some random photos of our volunteer teams on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Mick Tsikas/AAP Senator Lidia Thorpe announced on Monday that she would be leaving the Greens. Thorpe had split with the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis B. Desmond, Lecturer, Cyberintelligence and Cybercrime Investigations, University of the Sunshine Coast The news of a so-called “Chinese spy balloon” being shot down over the US has reignited interest in how nation-states spy on one another. It’s not confirmed that the ...
Today, at a Waitangi ki Waititi concert hosted by Te Whānau o Waipareira at Hoani Waititi Marae, West Auckland; Takutai Moana Natasha Kemp was officially announced as Te Pāti Māori Candidate for Tāmaki Makaurau for the 2023 Election. Hailing ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Daniel Pockett/AAP Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. The announcement by ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Daniel Pockett/AAP Victorian Indigenous Senator Lidia Thorpe has defected from the Greens to sit on the crossbench, declaring she wants to fully represent the “Blak Sovereign Movement” in parliament. The announcement by ...
Sure, Scotty Morrison’s Māori At Work is a wonderful resource for Aotearoa’s collective te reo Māori journey. But is it judgemental enough for the modern office environment?First published September 12 2019 The growing strength of te reo is palpable across Aotearoa, with record numbers of people participating in Mahuru ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Mills, Professor and Dean La Trobe Rural Health School, La Trobe University Shutterstock It can be tough to access front-line health care outside the cities and suburbs. For the seven million Australians living in rural communities there are significant ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University Chad Fish/AP Was the balloon that suddenly appeared over the US last week undertaking surveillance? Or was it engaging in research, as China has claimed? While the answers to these ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Queensland Shutterstock The generative AI industry will be worth about A$22 trillion by 2030, according to the CSIRO. These systems – of which ChatGPT is currently the best known – can write ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia Shutterstock When booking a flight, do you ever think about which seat will protect you the most in an emergency? Probably not. Most people book seats for comfort, such as leg room, ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has described this morning's Waitangi dawn service as moving and says he welcomes the shift away from a focus on politics. ...
Screenwriter Dana Leaming’s debut comedy series Not Even is out now on Prime and Neon. This is the out the gate story of how it got there.Kia ora, Hi, What up? Up to? U up? …I’m Dana. I wrote and co-directed (with Ainsley Gardiner) the TV show Not Even ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Mick Tsikas/AAP A federal Newspoll, conducted February 1-4 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged on ...
The Human Rights Commission, Te Kāhui Tika Tangata, last week released two reports on racism and the impact of colonialism in Aotearoa. Among their many insights was the necessity of a wider understanding of how racism manifests itself. I was honoured to accept an invitation by Te Kāhui Tika Tangata ...
Vincent O’Malley reviews a history of the battle of Gate Pā.First published February 5, 2019 Head up Cameron Road, one of Tauranga’s main arterial routes, a few kilometres out of the city centre and you drive over one of New Zealand’s most important historical sites. The road, named after ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Murray Goot, Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations, Macquarie University Support for embedding an Indigenous Voice to parliament in the Constitution has fallen. The polls provide good evidence once you work out how to find it. However, the voters who have ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Doug Drury, Professor/Head of Aviation, CQUniversity Australia Shutterstock When booking a flight, do you ever think about which seat will protect you the most in an emergency? Probably not. Most people book seats for comfort, such as leg room, or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Libby Rumpff, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne David Crosling/AAP The Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20 were cataclysmic: a landmark in Australia’s environmental history. They burnt more than 10 million hectares, mostly forests in southeast Australia. Many of our most ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Grové, Fulbright Scholar and Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Monash University Anete Lusina/Pexels School attendance levels in Australia are a massive issue according to Education Minister Jason Clare. As he told reporters last week, he hopes to talk to state colleagues ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan Institute Revising the generous fuel tax credits given to businesses should be a priority for the Albanese government, because keeping them would conflict with two other pressing priorities: reducing carbon emissions and repairing the ...
For nine years he steered the ship he built, but last week Duncan Greive announced his surprise resignation as CEO of The Spinoff. He joins guest host, Jane Yee, to discuss how doing things differently took The Spinoff from an irreverent TV blog to a respected online magazine, and why ...
Three decades ago one of the giants of New Zealand thinking and writing, Ranginui Walker, published Ka Whawhai Tonu Mātou, Struggle Without End. The book, originally released in 1990 and revised in 2004, is a history of Aotearoa from a Māori perspective. It had a profound influence and today remains ...
A review for Waitangi weekend The bestselling novel Kāwai: For Such a Time as This by Monty Soutar feels like the story Matua Monty has been working toward telling his entire life. It aims for the loftiest mountain peak in a valiant attempt at the fabled Great New Zealand ...
Unfortunately the great flood of January 27 was not a one-off but a precursor to more emergencies likely to strike the city because of environmental effects of climate change. While the Auckland floods are proving devastating, costly and far-reaching, they have also had the strange effect of revealing Tamaki Makaurau's original landscape. ...
Health inequities between Pākehā and Māori are often framed as complex and difficult to change. But making access to GPs and dentists free will not only save money for whānau using these services, it will also save money for the health system and ensure Māori rights to good governance and equity ...
One of New Zealand's most promising fast bowlers, Molly Penfold, was surprised to get the call-up for the T20 World Cup, but she has a great support team around her, Merryn Anderson reports. She's only played one T20 for the White Ferns, and she's yet to take a wicket, but Molly ...
Labour and National’s leaders came to Waitangi agreed on which areas need more investment in election year. But as political editor Jo Moir writes, the country is going to see a big debate on how Māori should benefit from it Prime Minister Chris Hipkins used his speech at Sunday’s pōwhiri ...
Securing the right to housing will require us to challenge the very systems and ideologies that are doing such harm to our planet.Opinion: The images of rivers running down our streets, cars floating down the motorway, houses flooded and half-submerged buses ferrying people across the causeway, will stick with ...
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It is hard to separate the politics from Waitangi, but the day party leaders were welcomed on to Te Whare Rūnanga was largely free of inflammatory rhetoric and political point scoring. ...
My personal view is that Labour’s on the ground game and Michael Wood’s far superior standing as a candidate in comparison to Parmar will mean that Labour will win this seat comfortably.
It is not often I will go out on a limb and say this but the impression that I have received from on the ground is pretty strong.
Hope you’re correct, but regardless of competence, the party vote last time in Mt Roskill was overwhelmingly National, Goff’s majority went down considerably and whether you like it or not there are many on the right who regard Goff as one of them. Things mightn’t go to plan for Labour.
I sincerely hope you’re right ms. You usually are. A string of injuries on and off this year left me unable to physically participate in the byelection. Please keep us informed as the results roll in. Thanks.
Good on you Mickey for getting out there and doing the work on election day.
+100 Mickey
Looks like you called it right. With each result coming in his lead is extending more and more. National are now coming up with all these excuses for not being able to take the seat from what they have tried to paint as a weak Labour Party. The fact they had more party votes for National in the seat last election should have seen this as a close race right down to the wire and not Labour pulling further and further away.
Why is Wood far superior?, compared to Parmars skill set he looks very average, no decent qualifications, no real skills or experience, looks like another head office bot who brings very little value to Parliament.
At least with Parmar you get a bit of diversity instead of another white bread lackey.
Supporting racial diversity comment followed with a racial slur
There is a small group of commentators here whose level is so low, and the intent , obvious
I would say you’re at the absolute lowest level
Well done!
You honestly prefer Parmar?… 😆
She has an impressive list of achievements from being in parliament for 2 years. Yep… if anyone knows what they are send them on through…
I saw a head to head comparing her skills and work experiences to Woods.
She pisses all over him., so yeah I prefer Parmar.
She’s toast bro. National doesn’t like losers. She’ll be gone in no time.
Oh yes, please enlighten us on her work experiences as a scientist?
Ok, those skills and experiences have left such a great impression that no one seems to know what they are, they must be good.
Bah – “skills and work experience”. Like it’s a job interview where that sort of stale empty language is treated seriously.
What matters in a politician is a a moral vision. See – Key hasn’t got one of those but BM could witter on endlessly about his “skills and work experience”. All those skills and all that experience directed at totally pointless and socially useless ends for the greater glory of Merrill Lynch. Spare me.
Are we talking about the same Parmjeet?
You haven’t had the experience of watching Michael (or Julie for that matter) working. They aren’t mucheck on being flashy. But they are smart and dedicated to whatever they are working on and focused on whoever they are working for.
I looked at Parmar and her quals, work experience, and exposure to the electorate and concluded she was that’s as soon as she was in the running.
Basically it was the difference between being a politician for selfies in the way that Key promoted her campaign and being a good politician. Parmar simply doesn’the have the experience to do things like to tell Key to piss off out of a LOCAL electorate or at least to actually be helpful in what he did do.
Nice try. The problem, of course, with putting an incumbent list MP up as your candidate is that voters have a parliamentary skill set to assess. And on that score Parmar has been a very average MP. Add to that the massive fail over Wood’s fabricated “assault” early on in the campaign and I reckon it’s safe to say her parliamentary days are numbered.
he won and whats her name lost and got totally walloped
He’s got the brains not to be a National Party member?
Parmar shows all the signs of the Dunning-Kruger effect. But, we shouldn’t be surprised, that’s the case for all National candidates.
http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87120705/live-mt-roskill-byelection
Labour surges into lead…. let it be, let it be!
If labour wins in a landslide, it’ll be portrayed as business as usual and nothing for national to worry about. Anything else however will trigger another round of hyper critical bully pile ons by the governments sycophants in the corporate media.
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/by2016/
With 25% of the vote counted, Wood is picking up 2 votes for every 1 Parmar has. I didn’t follow the campaign closely, but she didn’t seem to be a very impressive candidate.
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/by2016/
Wood leads with 28% of vote counted
Meanwhile, in the Uk’s Richmond Park By-Election a couple of days ago, failed Tory London Mayoral candidate and former Conservative MP, Zac Goldsmith, loses his seat, with the Lib Dems pulling off one of the most spectacular political upsets of recent years and denting the Conservatives’ narrow majority in the House of Commons into the bargain.
Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney overturned Goldsmith’s massive 23,000 majority, at last year’s general election, to win by 1,800 votes.
Richmond Park Labour voters doing what Labour voters used to do in 1990s Uk By-Elections in Blue areas where the Lib Dems had historically come second … voted strategically en masse .
Now, back to Mt Roskill …
Zac Goldsmith is a crap candidate wherever he stands…
hi scott, i hear he is now playing in waikato….
So, at this stage, roughly:
Wood (Lab) 64%
Parmar (Nat) 30%
Wood currently doing even better than suggested by Labour’s Internal Mt Roskill poll – which had Wood 58 / Parmar 28
just a thought…assume neither CB nor RM did any publicly released polls for the by election?
No. Pretty sure just Labour’s (publicly-released) Internal of Mt Roskill.
(although you can bet the Nats got Farrar to do them one)
Blimey !!! with 50% counted … Now
Wood (Lab) 67%
Parmar (Nat) 27%
This is just a good old-fashioned drubbing.
64% counted
Wood (Lab) 66%
Parmar (Nat) 28%
79% counted
Wood (Lab) 67%
Parmar (Nat) 27%
Things aint gonna change too much from here on in …
Ha-Haaa, What’s the bet Young Master Farrar and chums will be busy spinning the notion that Labour’s majority has been slashed !!! from 8,100 to a mere 6,500 (in the process, ignoring the steep fall in turnout).
2014 Election
Goff (Lab) 57%
Parmar (Nat) 32%
.
2016 By-Election
Close to 100% counted
Wood (Lab) 67% … + 10
Parmar (Nat) 27% … – 5
Provisional Final Result
(% valid votes)
Wood (Lab) … 66.46%
Parmar (Nat) … 27.67%
Majority … 6518
How about the other candidateside.
Anyone know what the Electoral Commission has done with the 2014 election results? I can’t find it on their changed website.
http://electionresults.govt.nz/ redirects to the by-election.
http://www.elections.org.nz/events/past-events/2014-general-election
Yeah I saw that, I just can’t see the actual 2014 results on that page. Can you please give a direct link?
Sorry. Overall results are at http://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/
Mt Roskill in particular is at http://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorate-28.html
Thanks! Did you find that off the front page?
Getting a fresh face into parliament will be really good for Labour!
Lighten up , guys… itll be all right on the night….
Lighten up , guys,… itll be all right on the night…
What is the NAP party? – coming last
NAP=Not a Party
Ah. Thanks.
Also, Not a Prayer in hell’s chance of winning
Being that this was always going to be a Labour victory (sitting government yada yada) the victory for National has been the amount of money Labour has had to spend on this campaign which means less for the general election and its not like Labour has money to spare anyway
Was it always going to be a Labour victory? National were making positive noises early on, they sure thought they had a chance and their proxies in the media were pumping it as much as they could. But, let’s face it, it was another pretty terrible by-election campaign from Stephen Joyce.
I could be wrong but as I understand it no sitting Government had ever won a by-election in a seat it did not already hold and if I know this then I’m pretty sure National HQ knew it as well
I think this whole exercise was designed to get Labour to spend money it didn’t need to on a by-election it was always going to win
So all you have to do is calculate how much money Labour has which by all accounts isn’t much and subtract the cost of the by-election which normally it wouldn’t have needed to spend as much on and suddenly they have even less money to spend on the general election
Or not.
You seem fixated by the money? Well how much did Trump have to spend compared to Clinton? And how did that work out?
Give over bro, this was another disastrous by-election campaign from National. They squandered a real good chance to restore their parliamentary majority.
If you think that this heralds a new dawning for the Labour party then good on you, I don’t think it will but only time will tell
I don’t think I claimed it was a new dawn for anybody actually, but I do think it shows a fragility for National going into next year that’s not being reflected in opinion polling at the moment. Their brand is starting to get a bit dulled and even the PM can’t rescue a dud candidate. He spent most of last week telling us that a poor result would be terminal for Little’s leadership. Well that didn’t happen. All things being equal this is a loss for National given that they won the party vote in this seat at the last election.
4500 votes is very fragile.
yes but the turnout was half of a general election, that 4500 is equivalent to 9000 with twice the number of people voting
Wood won with 66.3% of the preliminary count.
In the 2014 general election, Goff won with 55.8% of electorate votes.
Even if you account for the lack of a Green candidate in the by-election and assume every single Green voter turned out for Wood, (in reality it’s unlikely that’s the case) Coates only got 5% of the vote in the general election. That means Wood turned out an extra 4.5% of the vote at minimum. He did very well in the electorate, and it bodes well for the General Election IMO.
(although arguably, Parmar was a terrible candidate who didn’t do a good job at empathy and social intelligence, but that’s like, half of the National caucus anyway…)
Whatever factors you consider as in play here, Wood turned out a lot of supporters for a by-election.
Nobody said it was a new dawn – you are doing the straw man thing again.
It’s simply what happens when someone decent, personable and pretty smart goes up against an absolutely horrible candidate who looks and sounds aggressive and self-seeking.
or alternatively you could view it as the largest sample and most representative poll carried out this year ….800 odd telephone calls of dubious worth don’t compare to this swing.
t
If you are concerned that they have none to spare you could donate some. You sound like a fair-minded sort of guy, why not even the game up a bit? All good eh?
Oh wait – you actually want it to be unfairly tipped in favour of the party with the wealthiest supporters. Maybe that’s your definition of democracy – wealthy people buying influence and success?
Haha its all about the money? This is by far the cheapest successful by election I have ever seen.
Dude, you did note that at the last election the party vote in that electorate was National didn’t you?
This should have been a shoe in for National.
Call it now it is all over. It is a thumping.
well done.
Farrar is pretending it isn’t happening…
Hah, he’s trumping.
Farrar’s post is actually very gracious.
The comments afterwards seem to be associated with a great deal of dyspepsia though.
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2016/12/wood_wins_huge.html#comments
Sword Fish whats the latest numbers ?
Here is a repeat of the link Carolyn_nth put up: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/by2016/
60% counted and Wood way in the lead.
http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87120705/live-mt-roskill-byelection
Interesting tweets. Major sour grapes from John Key and Parmjeet Parmar. Matthew Hooten with his usual nasty tail sting for Andrew Little.
Olwyn’s link and see my comments above
Thanks got it.
So much for the media saying it was going to be an upset National win with Andrew Little gone by Monday lunchtime.
Why are my posts vanishing?
[random bug that drops some comments into moderation – weka]
Another 1000 votes counted and it’s going to be all over.
67/28 to labour 64% count
looks like wood will get a bigger % of the vote than Goff
Good Lord it is a shellacking…
Labour! Labour! Labour!
It’s all over bar the champagne corks popping.
Tracey Watkins where are you when we need you??
You won’t get nowt of her till the dust has safely settled.
So far Labour is polling at 67% of the vote. Last election Labour Green combined was 59.6% of the vote. At least a 7% swing to Lab/Green.
Not quite, the Green Party did not stand a candidate this time.
It is appropriate to add both the Labour and Green votes together specifically because the Greens did not stand a candidate. Otherwise the percentage swing to Labour would be even greater than the 7% given above., more like 9.5%. And that larger figure would be statistically less accurate.
So go ahead choose which swing you want. Me, I’ll stick with 7%.
It is a resounding win, that’s for sure.
I don’t what is or is not appropriate but these are the facts:
In 2014 Phil Goff got 56.5% and Barry Coates 5.1% and together 61.6%.
In 2016 Michael Wood gets 66.5% (to be confirmed).
It’s actually conservative to add both percentages together and then compare with the Labour result in the by-election, as not all Green electorate voters will have crossed over. (some of the people specifically vote for Green candidates because they won’t ever vote for a Labour candidate, for instance) It’s likely the delta is more than that.
It suggests we could see a bigger party vote for Labour in Auckland next year if they do anywhere near as well as they did in the by-election.
At 82.1% of the vote counted, Wood’s lead over Parmar is 5017. Looks like he will equal Goff’s 8000 majority.
Congratulations to Michael Wood. Some of us picked him for big things 5 -10 years ago.
I certainly liked his reaction to Parmar’s husband bad mouthing Julie Farley. I thought, now that is the sort of guy Labour needs to stick it to those Tory assholes.
Don’t take any shit from the Nats!!!
Julie Fairey. 😉
I think somebody claimed here on TS that Mt Roskill was not a Labour stronghold but a Goff stronghold. Well, now it is a Wood stronghold 🙂
Instead of heading bush Michael is off to parliament.
Congratulations to the whole Labour team and well done Michael.
A glimmer of light now forward to next year.
Labour ” Its Time ” !
I’m surprised National didn’t put more effort into this. If all the current polling we’re getting treated to is correct and going on the last election in this seat they could have managed something here with the right candidate and some well thought out overtures to Mt Roskill electors. It would have been an easy way to restore their majority in the House. The fact they didn’t suggests that, perhaps, it’s not quite as rosy on that side of politics as we’re lead to believe. Or maybe Stephen Joyce is just an idiot?
It wasn’t National’s by-election to win but Labour’s to lose.
I’d like to say that I respect how Phil Goff managed to keep ‘his nose clean’ in this by-election that would have meant much to him.
Heavily contesting this election by National could have been seen as a dummy run for next year’s general election. Trouncing Wood would have given a great story to say that there is no alternative and that the actual election was done and dusted. Sucking Labour into this approach would have seen it have too invest more in the Mt Roskill campaign. (What would have the Green Party done? Help Labour financially?). Making it more difficult in the general election campaign.
But this election was not played that way. National seems to have misjudged by flying in a candidate against a local. Perhaps internal polling showed it always to be losing.
Even so, the story of National sleepwalking to a 4th term is disturbed. A 7% Labour/Green swing is enough to throw the 2017 election way open.
Watch out for all the spin that will hit the msm.
national put in a big effort john key campaigned in mt roskill for 7 days parmjeet parmer had hording everywhere they thought they were going i win but labour had hundreds of activists door knock today getting there voters out and it worked i think there was even greens helping as well make no mistake national has taken a real thumping to night
“…Or maybe Stephen Joyce is just an idiot..?”
Occam’s razor favours this…
Ta Gristle. On a percentage basis it will be at least equal to Goff. But:
watch the MSM make a big thing of the fact his majority was 2500 (or whatever) less than Goff’s. The inference – he’s an inferior candidate.
It looks like its going to be a great result, Anne. And I don’t think the MSM or Mr Key will like it one little bit !
No it’s reflecting the total lack of empathy that Key and many in his party are displaying to our country
High house prices No wage increases and a general lack of security for your and your families future
I’d just like to pause here and thank the electoral commission, who run our elections with a quiet, democratic efficiency that Americans can only dream about.
Wow, less than 30% turnout…
Coming as it has 3 weeks before Xmas… it was always going to be a low turnout.
Which should give Labour a solid 15,000+ majority in the general election then.
Yes, dismal!
Is this your version of the missing million voters?
Is anyone able to fill me in on what happened today please? Some sort of protest, electoral commission doing a follow up on something. Thankies.
Congrats Michael Wood 🙂 good work, boots on the ground pays off big time, big up’s to all involved, well done you fellas, really proud of everyone’s efforts, team work, awesomeness.
Watery nats sun rising tomorrow.
What’s the bet that the msm will be suggesting that it is time for key to step down due to National’s dismal performance in the bye-election.
Whats the bet the MSM will downplay the win saying he failed to reach the 8000 majority of Goff.
And low turnout will be added in.
Key…Akshully it was a safe Labour seat we did not expect to win.
Good to see my old electorate has used their common sense and elected a great guy for the seat and the party.
Go Woodsy Go !!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11759940
Parmar and Joyce looking like one of their’s dog just savaged the other’s cat…
and
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87120705/live-mt-roskill-byelection
Woods looking pleased, if a little humble…
Jolly good show!
Yeah but whats with the happy grin on Paula Pullyerbenefits face , then?
She seems happy enough?
What gives?
She pissed?
some people just like being photographed
yeah…struggling to come up with a suitably pithy comment for the look on one of those faces…best is along the lines of ‘some village has lost its idiot’….
BM said Parmar does the pissing…
See 2.2.1
I wouldn’t read to much in a by election with such a piss poor turn out.
Looks likes lots a voters intend to keep their powder dry.
There you see ….. dissing Labour has started already – despite previous Nat gloating at the start of the by-election that (a) Wood would get nowhere near the Goff majority of 6000 and (b) boundary changes made it less likely Wood would win !
Hi Jenny, knowing you can get a little bit hysterical I should point out my post was in no way dissing Labour at all. I’m excited for Michael and so pleased also that at last Andrew has had the opportunity to finally experience a night out celebrating a win at electoral level.
Excited, are we?… well jilly jolly gosh … Im so excited that your excited too.
Were all so excited,… except … a few Nat whingers and whiners on this post who need to harden up a bit.
And my , my , my …. is Paula Bennett thinking she can now roll Joyce as Ms Fixit ?
She sure seemed content in the link Rosemary provided…
I have never read anything resembling hysteria from Jenny Kirk. Quite the opposite. Perhaps if you had expressed your claimed pleasure at Michael’s win, then Jenny and others (including me) wouldn’t have concluded you were dissing Labour.
Speaking for everyone now are we Anne?
Jenny and your failure in taking in what was said is no more my problem then yours by you engaging typing fingers before brain.
That’s fine, I accept your apologies for over reacting.
Jester i think you misread the tone of Jennys comments.
Its assertiveness not hysteria.
And then happiness at the win tonight.
Putting your rather sexist use of the term ‘hysterical’ to one side I would have thought it was National who were a little bit desperate to experience a night out celebrating a win at electoral (by-election) level?
Haha. Don’t get your panties in a bunch Scott. No sexism intended in my comment. If you have deemed hysterical as indicating ala femine I’d suggest you need to get out and meet more men 😉
i met couple ladies from espom who are now glad to be in mt roskill and have woods as there mp rather than that god awful Seymour
Keep their powder dry for what? So that their votes count for more at the next general election? That’s not how it works, you know…
Hi Hanwort. I was inferring that the low turnout is probably attributed to people not seeing a bi-election as important as a general election. And by the way…that’s exactly how it works. Please feel free to google turnouts for bi-elections per electorate versus turnout for general election per electorate.
Except that isn’t that a massive fail on National’s part? since they thought they were in for a chance and winning this would have restored their majority in the House for the rest of this parliament?
National and its coalition partners have a majority in the house Scott. Do please keep up.
Jester its by- election.
Yep sorry mosa, spell check on iPad does that
Just a heads up mate.
All good.
I have no idea what that has to do with keeping one’s powder dry. Feel free to Google the expression and obtain an understanding of what it means.
LOL! The voters don’t want to have to put in a claim with ACC for OOS because of voting more than twice in one year! You suit your nom de plume.
No one mentioned acc mr incognito. I just mentioned that people don’t see bi elections as important.
More important than polls.
Mr Incognito, eh; you seem to like making assumptions.
I agree that by-elections are generally regarded less important, rightly or wrongly, than general elections.
I wish you a good night, Jester (F/M).
And you to Incognito 🙂
With the fact National had a majority in the party votes last election in this seat it should have been a much closer race coming down to the wire for Labour even with a low turnout. National is going on about how weak of a party Labour is via their many mouth pieces and tame MSM. This shows just how much of a lie that is. Far from being week, Labour is stronger than ever.
All credit to Michael Wood and all the people who got stuck in and made the result what it is.
But it can’t only be about personalities. With Northland showing how the regions think and Roskill as an indicator for Auckland, surely BM can’t be the only one doing BMs tonight.
“A full 100 per cent of the votes have now been counted. Labour’s Michael Wood has 11,170 votes, while National’s Parmjeet Parmar has 4652.”
Stuff
Congratulations Michael Wood! The other candidates seemed bloody hopeless.
Only 4500 for National.
That’s about 8% of the electorate, right?
Joyce must be packing it.
Woohoo! Congratulations, Michael Wood, and if you’re reading this, congratuiations Julie Fairey – from the news reports it looked like you had to bite your tongue through some near-lethal levels of bullshit from various people and news media during this campaign.
Thats just the problem here PM Labour people should stop biting their tongues and get stuck in where these bastards are concerned.
Its been to quiet for eight bloody years.
+1
Matthew Hooton @MatthewHootonNZ
That’s a terrible result by Parmar in #MtRoskill. @AndrewLittleMP safe to election. Parmar won’t be heard of again. #nzpol
7:39 PM – 3 Dec 2016
Revealing Fact:
If everyone who voted for the Government in Mt Roskill at the 2014 General Election (ie those Party-Voting Nat / ACT / Maori / UF / Cons) had given their support to National’s Parmar at this By-Election … and if all 2014 Opposition Party voters (Lab / Green / IMP / NZF) had voted for Wood, then the % would have been:
Wood (Lab) … 52%
Parmar (Nat) … 48%
.
Whereas, the actual Preliminary Final Result is:
Wood (Lab) … 66%
Parmar (Nat) … 28%
revealing indeed….. is this a NZ/Auckland wide trend will be interesting to discover…..and certainly flies in the face of recent polling
Don’t get your hopes up. Parmar was an awful candidate. Different in a General once Key pops out a few “akshullys” for the delight of the punters. Nobody is going to extrapolate by asking the question of why such a horrible candidate found a natural home in the National Party.
there are a multitude of horrible candidates, many of them Ministers however it is the movement AWAY from government support that is telling….it is larger than could reasonably be expected from the usual by election bias and this is from a background of supposed increasing gov support and weak opposition according to recent polling.
Does it indicate a general election result? obviously not but it certainly casts (more) doubt on the veracity of the polls
Thats interesting Swordfish.
By-election behaviour is always different than a general election.
With the two party block figure the percentage is 4% difference for the left , a win but still close.
Although 66% in the preliminary is a great result.
How would this play out nationally in a FPP Election ?
Phil phoned my Mum on her 09-627 number.
The “electorate office” called back on same day – tell us more about your concerns.
Very well done Mt Roskill Labour Machine !
My Mum, historically Labour !!, and despite Subgen corruption and too many marbles – astute.
Boom!!
Congrats to Michael Wood MP and to the wider Labour team. This result helps to vindicate Goff’s decision to stand aside and run for mayor, and it’s notable how many mayors of our major cities either ran on a Labour ticket or had strong Labour links. Of course, turnout is lower for those elections, too, but the motivated people vote.
Now Labour needs to look at pulling in more of the less motivated. There was someone on this site a day or two ago taunting people about being a swinging voter and saying she had more power than people with fixed political values. She was being bloody annoying, but she was also right, to a certain extent. Some people will always vote Labour/left, and those people need to be valued and to see their values reflected in the policies and decisions of the party, but not at the cost of attracting Mr and Ms In-the-Middle. Clark understood that (and got criticised for not being radical enough) – but over the course of three terms she and her team achieved a lot for NZ as a whole and for vulnerable NZers in particular. Key has also understood it and (though I can’t stand him) he’s managed to take the centre voters with him.
But enough pontificating – happy, happy, happy!
Interesting side note: Was in the Zookeepers Daughter last night and his royal ponytail puller came in with his canditate. Now it’s the first time, I’ve seen him avoid parts of the room. Yeah there was the usual people wanting photos with him, but those who looked like they did real work for a living, he ignored. Also funny quite a few hateful glears at him. Again unusual, for the royal ponytail puller, normally it’s league fans, and queer folk who give him shit.
Our cornor was ignored, could have been the wee ditty – we got 29 reason to hate key, don’t seal them up — that rang out a few times.
the zookeepers daughter is a bar, right?
Indeed
just checking
Dear oh dear !, They’re not taking this slap-in-the-face terribly well over at Kiwiblog.
A few comments from that highly-esteemed organ:
There you go, Mt Roskill … that’s National Voters’ frank, unvarnished, sincerely-held view of you and your family.
Crikey !!! … those guys sound like a pit full of starving Taipans… makes us Katipo’s look like rank beginners…
The mask has slipped.
These people are the real National party ,the same people selling the brighter future the biggest con job since the Decent Society in 1990 to New Zealanders.
The people they rely on to support them are the ones with the lack of intelligence.
And unfortunately they vote.
I am glad this is in full view and for everyone to see & access (and respond to). There also is a point to make in favour of online anonymity. For some people it can be liberating and cathartic to express their views online and others love to wallow in ‘filth’; each to their own or should that be live and let live?
One hopes this win doesn’t fool Labour into believing they don’t have any problems.
This isn’t the time to become complacent.
I agree, but it does give Labour a much-needed taste of ‘winning’, which is a boost to morale and confidence that cannot be underestimated. I hope it will re-calibrate some of the MSM as well.
I think Labour is heading into a very challenging and exciting year; if they can maintain a sense of humour and fun they’ll pull through o.k. I also think Andrew Little has a calming and stabilising & consolidating effect on the Labour caucus, which is perhaps not too surprising given his background.
“It does give Labour a much-needed taste of ‘winning”’
Indeed.
Nevertheless, while I also agree Labour is heading into a very challenging year, at this stage, there is little for them or voters to be excited about.
Policy to date is lacking and failing to resonate while their delivery requires a lot of improvement.
Therefore, unless they got something new to pull out of their hat which they can deliver well and get voters excited, they are going to be in a heap of trouble come election day.
Well done to woods. Congrats.
I think my earlier post disappeared.
Regardless trying again. Congratulations to woods. He was the better candidate, ran the better campaign and is the deserved winner.