National’s list

Written By: - Date published: 12:50 pm, August 9th, 2020 - 23 comments
Categories: election 2020, Judith Collins, national, same old national - Tags:

It’s out.  And it appears to be bolted together hurriedly rather than carefully crafted.

And a lot of it may be academic.  Such is National’s current polling there will not be many list places to go around.

Four months ago I had a guess at what would happen if National polled at the then figure of 31%.  I think the trends are clear and barring major developments Roy Morgan’s figure of 26% feels about right.  And this is reinforced by door knocking that I have done recently where erstwhile National supporters have expressed either dismay or contempt for their party and admiration for Jacinda Ardern.

In that post I made these predictions about National electorate seats based on anything under a 5,000 majority would be up for grabs.  I have revised them because two National MPs have, Kaye and Tolley have now gone.

  • Auckland Central which is marginal with a National majority of 1,500. With Kaye gone Labour’s Helen White has an outstanding opportunity to win the seat..
  • East Coast which has a majority of 4,800 and where Anne Tolley has retired could be vulnerable.
  • Chris Bishop in Hutt South (1,500 majority) has to be gone.
  • Maungakiekie’s Denise Lee (2,200) would be gone.
  • Nick Smith in Nelson (4,200) is under threat.
  • Matt King in Northland (1,300) could be in trouble depending if Labour cannibalises enough of the remaining NZ First votes.
  • Lawrence Rule Yule in Tukituki (2,800) would clearly be under threat.
  • In Waiarapa Kieran McNulty could become MP if he overcomes a 2,800 majority.
  • Whanganui (1,700) would surely flip to Labour.

Given current polling the figure is probably more like 7,000.  This brings into play seats such as Hamilton East and on a good day Hamilton West, Invercargill, Northcote, Otaki, and theoretically Papakura although with recent boundary changes I presume that Judith is safe.  Rotorua could be gone.  For various local reasons even Upper Harbour could be vulnerable.

On a bad night National’s electorate seat numbers could be reduced from 41 to 25.  At 26% National would have 7 list seats.  This would meant that Goldsmith, McClay, Bishop, David Bennett, Woodhouse and Nicola Willis would be back and Mellisa Lee marginal but bear in mind that the more electorate seats they retain the fewer list positions they will have.

The biggest winner is Maureen Pugh, she who was described by Simon Bridges as  “f&*king useless”.  She has jumped 25 list positions.  Maybe Judith is giving Bridges a message or maybe it is all to do with internal factional politics.

And the biggest losers are Alfred Ngaro who drops 10 positions from 20 to 30 and Jo Hayes who goes from 36 to 44.  Collins’s claim that Ngaro will win Te Atatu is barking.  He has no chance and unless National’s polling picks up considerably he will have no change.

National’s ethnic strategy is set to take a battering.  They still have the list positions set aside for ethnic candidates, this time from 24 to 28 but again on current polling none of these candidates will get in.

National may emerge a more conservative, whiter and more countrified version of itself following this election.   And increase dramatically the risk of a three term Labour Government.

23 comments on “National’s list ”

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  1. Patricia Bremner 1
    9 August 2020 at 1:42 pm

    Thanks Micky, very thought provoking. Though there will be a change before the election with NZ First's vote shrinking. Where do you think those voters will land? Act? or National?

    • JPWood 1.1
      9 August 2020 at 6:31 pm

      One interpretation of NZF's showing last time out was that there was a cohort of voters that were ready to leave National but not quite convinced with Labour. NZF was a placeholder and this could be a reason that NZF's support is so soft.

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    9 August 2020 at 1:43 pm

    Being conservative only works for them if bau is still viable, but the post-covid economy looks more distant and questionable with every day that passes. Given that the PM has staked out a conservative position with a hint of minimal progress on various policy fronts, it's hard to see how JC can rethink the situation (even had she the cerebral capacity to do so). I wonder if she has called in anyone to replace Hooton.

    Tv news last night saw her claiming Ardern's new policy as National's actually, from some years ago. National & Labour simulating competition by copying each other is a trend still, and I feel sorry for teenagers all over the country starting to observe politics, asking their parents why National & Labour are the same, and getting shit answers!

  3. Andre 3
    9 August 2020 at 1:45 pm

    Lawrence Rule – is he the MP for the Born-to electorate?

  4. Dawn Trenberth 4
    9 August 2020 at 1:46 pm

    Just wondering if Denise Lee is in that much danger as Maungakiekie has lost some of it's very red area in Panmure Mt Wellington and Riverside to Panmure-Otahuhu about 17,000 voters and gained a bluer part of Mt Roskill.

    • lprent 4.1
      9 August 2020 at 2:12 pm

      That is a good question. But I suspect that the electorate looks more like it did in 2008-2011 looking at the map and the description. The party votes don’t look at different to 2014-2017 during that period despite the boundary change.

      At a glance I think that 2014-2017 retention by National was more to do with the gentrification across Auckland rather than the specific boundary shifts.

      • SMSD 4.1.1
        9 August 2020 at 8:21 pm

        Maungakiekie is quite hard to pick. Majority of about 2300 last time, inflated by Chloe Swarbrick running a strong campaign, winning 4,000 electorate votes, twice as many as their party vote in the electorate.

        In theory it should go to Labour or very close. But, there have been boundary changes helpful to National, and Denise Lee has a fairly high profile, much higher than the Labour candidate. I think it will be an interesting and close race.

        • tc 4.1.1.1
          10 August 2020 at 7:39 am

          Profile plays a huge role which is often down to resources.

          It's winnable in this climate as Lee's a classic trougher.

        • Red lion seratus 4.1.1.2
          10 August 2020 at 5:32 pm

          Priyanca is a wonderful & articulate candidate, who deserves to win the seat

  5. ScottGN 5
    9 August 2020 at 2:06 pm

    “National may emerge a more conservative, whiter and more countrified version of itself following this election. And increase dramatically the risk of a three term Labour Government.“

    You forgot the ‘religious’ bit Micky. It’s likely that after the clear out the conservative religious wing of the party is going to be ascendant. Their values are pretty much out of whack with the vast majority of NZers.

  6. observer 6
    9 August 2020 at 2:06 pm

    It may be a while before National realize what Judith Collins' leadership is doing to them. The deal (after Muller quit) was "Band-aid leader, write off 2020, save caucus, dump Collins post-election, ready for 2023". It was not to give themselves a handicap in the race for 2023.

    The problem they're facing is not just the inevitable reduction in quantity, but also quality. Perhaps David Bennett and Maureen Pugh and Simeon Brown will bring hidden talents to their front bench. Good luck with that team, Luxon.

  7. Ross 7
    9 August 2020 at 4:13 pm

    With Kaye gone Labour’s Helen White has an outstanding opportunity to win the seat.

    Maybe, but her chances would be even higher if Swarbrick wasn’t contesting the seat. Labour and the Greens should be doing deals and it’s astonishing they aren’t.

    Why the PM is wedded to no deals is anyone’s guess but I would’ve thought that key decision-makers within Labour and the Greens would be trying to win as many seats as possible.

    [Hi Ross, bye Ross. You are currently serving a 10-month ban and you have tried many times to post a comment on the site despite the ban. This one slipped through the net but was caught by an audit. This is not a laughing matter. As a reward, you’re given an extra six months – Incognito]

    • observer 7.1
      9 August 2020 at 4:18 pm

      Specifically, what deal should they do in Auckland Central?

      As discussed on here before, there is a clear difference between 1) withdrawing a candidate completely and 2) the "cup of tea" signal, but candidate still in place (as in Epsom). If the Labour or Green candidate is on the ballot paper, they will still get votes – even if the party doesn't want them.

    • lprent 7.2
      9 August 2020 at 4:42 pm

      Why the PM is wedded to no deals is anyone’s guess…

      That would be short term thinking. Political parties have to consider not only the upcoming election, but also those into the future for decades ahead.

      After all the Labour Party are more than 100 years old. The Green Party is 30 years old. Both derive from parent parties. I vote fro Values in 1978, and that party first contested and election in 1972 – nearly 50 years ago. The Labour Party formed out of several parties including the Socialist Party that started in 1901.

      These are not fly by night corporations doing short-term deals. These are rival movements who both work with each other and are rightfully wary of each other.

      I would’ve thought that key decision-makers within Labour and the Greens would be trying to win as many seats as possible.

      They are – for their own party and their own movements.

    • Incognito 7.3
      9 August 2020 at 4:59 pm

      See my Moderation note @ 4:13 PM.

  8. gnomic 8
    9 August 2020 at 5:15 pm

    A wee correction to the posting, the MP for Tukituki is Lawrence Yule, rather than Rule. With any luck he won't be ruling any time soon though I see Judith C is confident she will become Prime Minister on 19th September.

  9. gnomic 9
    9 August 2020 at 10:23 pm

    Speaking of Hamilton East and its current MP David Bennett, can anybody explain why he has shot up through the ranks to 11th? It seems unlikely to be on the basis of talent. For much of his time in the National caucus he looked like a permanent back bencher but now has reached dizzying heights. Presumably something to do with backing the right horse in the leadership wars, and being on the right? Anybody know what is up with that? For a long time Tim Macindoe of Ham West was way above David but now he is a mere 23.

    Back in the day the Hamilton seats were often a swinging indicator of which party was going to take power, but the Nats have had a stranglehold for many years. Time for a change perhaps.

    • tc 9.1
      10 August 2020 at 7:28 am

      Unlikely, the new Tron suburban sprawl maybe but she's a cow cocky town.

      Bennett's cut from the same cloth as Collins. Tim less so based on their personas can't see either displaced.

  10. gsays 10
    9 August 2020 at 10:23 pm

    Oh, I see, this is about the politicians.

    I thought it was the lean the National party was on, commonly seen in things before they sink.