On the US election.
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9:42 am, October 30th, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, International, Joe Biden, us politics -
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This year forecasting the U.S. election has an interesting additional element, with Trump and the Republican Party gearing up to steal the election if it is not a landslide for their opponents. First, though, the election itself.
The election is shaping up to be a blue wave. Five days out from election day, Nate Silver’s sophisticated model rates Biden’s chances at 89 in 100. The Democrats have a good chance of winning the Senate and are very nearly certain to win back the House according to this modelling.
But, many people say, we were told in 2016 that Clinton would win. That’s sort of true. Clinton was looking likely to win up until the final days, when the Comey “bombshell” dropped, and she lost 5 points according to the experts. And she did win the popular vote, by almost 3 million. It’s just that she lost three midwestern states by around 40,000 votes in all. The pundits that gave Trump a fair chance of winning should have made that clearer. On election eve, Nate Silver’s model gave Trump a reasonable 29% chance, for example.
It’s true that the pollsters underweighted for uneducated white voters in 2016. However, they aren’t making that mistake again.
Anyway, 2016 is a poor indicator of what will happen in 2020.
For one thing, Trump was standing against the second most unpopular candidate in recent memory (after himself) and managed to capitalise on the baggage she carried. Biden may not be a great orator, but he doesn’t have the huge negatives Clinton did. Attempts to besmirch Biden and his family have not gained the traction that the “Lock her up!” campaign did.
Tellingly, even when Clinton’s support peaked, it was lower than Biden’s has been at any point since he became the Democratic candidate.
For another thing, in 2016 FBI Director Comey gifted Trump the election with his bombshell about the FBI investigating Clinton’s emails only about a week out from election day. There’s been no bombshell this time, and in any case, with more than 80 million early votes cast, the election is already half over with the polls showing Biden clearly in the lead not just across the country, but in those pivotal midwestern states.
Further, there is a much smaller persuadable, undecided vote this time than in 2016 (around 5% according to the polls). The electorate is more polarised than ever before, and Biden’s lead has been remarkably stable since the middle of the year when…
… Covid kicked in and Trump’s abysmal response became clear. The pandemic and Trump’s response has not only displaced the economy as the most salient issue for most voters, but it has also robbed Trump of any claim to superior economic management as the economy has tanked. A double whammy.
Trump was in trouble even before Covid hit, despite what some people said. He’d lost the suburbs, and suburban women in particular, early in the term. The pattern of special and state elections leading up to the 2018 congressional elections foreshadowed a blue wave, and sure enough, the House flipped convincingly, and the Democrats gained at state and local level all over the country. Trump has been one of the most unpopular recent presidents since shortly after he took office. The only presidents with similar disapproval ratings since polling commenced in the middle of last century are Jimmy Carter and H. W. Bush. Both lost.
Trump has also lost other voters, most importantly older voters fearful of Covid and white voters without college degrees. Even more importantly, he has lost the most support amongst this latter group in those very midwestern states that handed him those vital Electoral College votes last time around. The fact that numbers of new Covid cases and hospitalisations are breaking records in Wisconsin and Michigan while voting is underway just adds to Trump’s woes.
Better still, with the exception of Pennsylvania, where Biden’s margin is smaller (at around 5%) than Wisconsin and Michigan, state-level polls are showing that the battleground is in states that Trump won comfortably in 2016 are leaning towards Biden or contestable. These include Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Georgia, where Biden is marginally ahead in polling, and Ohio and Texas (!), where he is close.
This is good news for Biden, because he has been raising vastly more funding than Trump and is outspending him in these states, forcing Trump onto the defensive over a wide front.
The huge early vote, with legions of new voters, a monster vote overall and higher levels of engagement this year augur well for Biden. Signs are that much larger numbers of young people are voting, another positive sign.
In sum, there’s a small chance that Trump could pull it off again, but it’s not likely.
The problem is that anything less than a convincing win on the night will see the Republicans trying to steal the election. They’ve been remarkably open about it. They are gearing up to challenge results in the key battleground states, especially the validity of mail-in votes, with plans to suspend the counting of those ballots. They will be fighting these legal battles in Republican-controlled states with local and federal courts stacked with Republican judges, and the Supreme Court with its new 6-3 conservative majority.
If they can tie things up enough, Trump has alluded to using the 12th Amendment, which in the event of a contested election result would see the House of Representatives decide the outcome. With each state delegation getting one vote, and the Republicans currently holding the advantage (with more small, rural states), the Republicans could steal the election unless the Democrats can wrestle a few state delegations away from them.
This is not to mention an explosion of violence by the armed thugs under orders from Trump to “standby”, seeking to provoke a backlash from left-wing radicals that would be a pretext for Trump to impose martial law in key Democratic-held cities under the Insurrection Act.
In short, Biden’s likely to win, but he needs to win early and win big if we are to avoid legal chaos and fighting on the streets and a concerted attempt to steal the election. This is one to watch.
Peter Haynes
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- Power of the people on full display as hīkoi approaches Parliament
Today, Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington, with thousands gathering to march in unity against the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
- Hypocrisy as Te Whatu Ora contractor bill balloons
Te Whatu Ora’s bill for contracting and consulting staff has ballooned by nearly 20 percent under the National Government, breaking a promise they made during the election campaign to cut contractors. ...4 days ago
- Release: Growing pressure to scrap Section 7AA Repeal Bill
The newly released Section 7AA Repeal Bill's select committee report is further evidence that the Government should scrap it. ...4 days ago
- Government’s move to monetise access to nature a slippery slope
The Green Party is voicing serious concerns over the Government’s proposal to charge for access to public conservation land, released today. ...7 days ago
- Green Party condemns the passage of Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party condemns the passing of the Treaty Principles Bill at first reading, and is clear that the fight is not over. ...1 week ago
- Stand Up for Te Tiriti
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Over 15,000 sign Labour’s open letter to Luxon
As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Fast Track Bill threatens environment, climate and reputation
The fast-track legislation passing its second reading in Parliament is another step towards environmental ruin. ...1 week ago
- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 week ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...1 week ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
- Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 weeks ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Winston Peters must apologise
The Deputy Prime Minister should apologise to the public servant he named and blamed for something they did not do, and for misusing the rules of Parliament. ...2 weeks ago
- Government action provides Southland farmers more time to meet plan requirements
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...13 hours ago - Bill reaffirms Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...13 hours ago
- Critical milestones for earthquake buildings review
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...14 hours ago
- State of the art radiology machine for Auckland
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...14 hours ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Europe
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Europe for high-level talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom next week. "Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand's traditional and likeminded diplomatic and ...15 hours ago
- First arrests made under gang patch ban
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...16 hours ago
- Better support for victims of sexual violence
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...17 hours ago
- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...17 hours ago
- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...18 hours ago
- Attendance rates increase, again
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...19 hours ago
- Improving the lives of young New Zealanders
Ensuring New Zealand is the best place in the world for children and young people is the vision at the heart of the Government’s new Child and Youth Strategy, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. “Childhood represents a huge opportunity to set people on a positive path towards living ...22 hours ago
- Government continues work to reinstate livestock exports by sea
The Government is reinstating the trade of livestock exports by sea while ensuring the highest standards of animal welfare, says Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard.“The Government will introduce legislation changes to reinstate the trade, enhance oversight, and strengthen requirements for exporters to identify risks and manage the welfare of ...1 day ago
- Speech to the National Quality Forum 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...2 days ago
- New Zealand’s COP29 National Statement
Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...2 days ago
- Latest Quarterly Investment Report released
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...2 days ago
- New Zealand supporting loss and damage fund
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced New Zealand will contribute NZ$10 million to the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage while at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. “New Zealand is joining the global effort to address the significant challenge of responding to ...2 days ago
- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
The free ride for gangs is over when the clock strikes midnight tonight, with tough new laws officially coming into effect, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell say. “Gang patches will no longer be able to be worn in public. To earn the right to wear a ...2 days ago
- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
The Government is welcoming the decision by the Local Government Funding Agency to increase access to financing tools for fast growing councils to support greater investment in critical infrastructure, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Communities across the country are facing an infrastructure deficit and significant population growth is projected in ...2 days ago
- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...2 days ago
- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...2 days ago
- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...2 days ago
- Significant milestone for Canterbury Road of National Significance
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...3 days ago
- Health survey results to help drive change
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says findings from the annual Health Survey highlight the need to continue driving better health outcomes for New Zealanders. The New Zealand Health Survey is an annual snapshot of key metrics measured from July 2023 – July 2024. Findings released this morning include: In 2023/24, ...3 days ago
- Final push needed to get to Smokefree 2025
A renewed effort to get people to quit smoking will build on what has worked to date and target the groups who most need support, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said today. “The latest New Zealand Health Survey results show the daily smoking rate at 6.9 per cent and we ...3 days ago
- New diplomatic appointments
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced four new diplomatic appointments. “Our diplomats play an important role in ensuring New Zealand’s interests are maintained and enhanced across the world,” Mr Peters says. “It is a pleasure to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign ...3 days ago
- Next steps for Regulatory Standards Bill
Regulation Minister David Seymour has today announced the next steps in the Government’s plan improve the quality of regulation by opening consultation on a proposed Regulatory Standards Bill. “New Zealand's low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation,” says Mr Seymour. ...3 days ago
- Red Tape Tipline goes live
Minister for Regulation David Seymour has today announced that the Ministry for Regulation’s Red Tape Tipline is now live. “We want to hear about your red tape horror stories. From today, New Zealanders will have a say on how they are regulated through an online portal,” says Mr Seymour. The ...3 days ago
- Youth Parliament 2025 announced
The Minister for Youth Matt Doocey has today announced the eleventh Youth Parliament will be taking place in 2025. “Youth Parliament offers a unique youth development opportunity to young people from across New Zealand to experience the political process and learn about how government works,” says Mr Doocey. “The two-day ...4 days ago
- Police stats show promising change
After nearly a year in Government, Kiwis have seen significant change across law and order with promising early results shown across some Police statistics, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “In August 2023, I told New Zealanders that if they had not started to see a change in public safety within ...4 days ago
- Better coordination of anti-scam efforts
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...4 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...4 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend ASEAN meeting
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...4 days ago
- Launching the White Ribbon Ride
The Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour, was on hand to wish riders well at the start of the North Island leg of the White Ribbon Ride in Whakatāne this morning. The ride helps mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ...5 days ago
- Construction to begin on next stage of Papakura to Drury
Construction on the next stage of the SH1 Papakura to Drury project will begin early next month, with the contract for works awarded to Fulton Hogan, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. "SH1 Papakura to Drury is a key project that will drive economic growth and productivity, reduce congestion, and enable people ...6 days ago
- NZ signs trade deal with Costa Rica, Iceland and Switzerland
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has signed a pioneering trade agreement that prioritises New Zealand’s sustainable exports at a ceremony during APEC in Peru today. “The Agreement on Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), between Costa Rica, Iceland, and Switzerland was concluded in July of this year and opens up significant ...6 days ago
- Government and iwi work together on aquaculture
Five new Aquaculture Settlement Areas will help ensure Ngāi Tahu shares in the opportunities aquaculture offers for Southland’s economy, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. “The Aquaculture Settlement Areas (ASAs) I’m announcing today set aside space so the Crown and Ngāi Tahu can assess their potential for aquaculture development. ...7 days ago
- Government launches review to ensure electricity market is fit-for-purpose
The terms of reference for a review of the performance of the electricity market have been released. The review, initiated by the Coalition Government during the power crisis in winter will look at whether current regulations and market design support economic growth and access to reliable and affordable electricity, Energy Minister ...7 days ago
- Speech to Social Investment Hui: Jack and his whānau need our help
Kia ora koutou katoa. Nau mai, haere mai, piki mai. Ki te mihi atu ahau, ki te manwhenua nei, Te Atiawa, Ngāti toa rangatira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you, Andy, for your introduction. Let me acknowledge you as the new Chief Executive of the Social Investment ...7 days ago
- Minister of State for Trade heads to Brisbane for PACER Plus meeting
Minister of State for Trade Nicola Grigg has travelled to Australia to attend the PACER Plus Ministers Meeting in Brisbane. “Trade plays a critical role in driving employment, economic growth, and improving the standards of living in the Pacific Region. The Government is strongly committed to supporting Pacific Island countries ...7 days ago
- Proposals to modernise conservation released
Toitū te taiao – Our environment endures The Government is consulting on proposals to modernise New Zealand’s conservation management system, aiming to protect relevant natural areas while supporting sustainable growth in tourism and regional economies, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. “Today, the Department of Conservation – Te Papa Atawhai is ...7 days ago
- This week three parties stood together – can they withstand the storm to come?
There is plenty yet to play out, but the next election is at this rate shaping up as trio versus trio, writes Toby Manhire. A subplot of this week’s historic hīkoi mō te Tiriti has been the sight of the three opposition parties presenting a unified front. Te Pāti Māori ...33 minutes ago - All 33 malls in Auckland ranked from worst to best
From the low lows of abandon empires to the high highs of a mall done just right. This is the second in the Malls of New Zealand series, where we rank the malls in major centres. Next week: Wellington. A note from the editor: This is the hardest ranking we’ve ...33 minutes ago
- The cost of being: A clothes-mad 20-something who walks everywhere
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a 27-year-old apartment-dwelling marketing exec explains her approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Female. Age: 27. Ethnicity: Pākehā. Role: Marketing exec at ...33 minutes ago
- Nuclear winters know no borders
Opinion: The immediate horror of nuclear weapon explosions – the blinding flash, crushing blast wave, and radioactive inferno – is well documented.But what nuclear-armed nations either don’t grasp or won’t admit, is far more chilling: how their weapons could devastate even countries thousands of kilometres from any mushroom clouds.The collapse ...33 minutes ago - This week’s bestselling books – November 22
FICTION1 Kāwai: Tree of Nourishment by Monty Soutar (David Bateman, $39.99)Sample dialogue, all from one chapter:“That can’t be,” replied Taona doubtfully.“You were right. The pā is unnervingly quiet,” Taona murmured.“The Hākuwai,” Motukia breathed. “Our grandfathers told us they rarely saw the Hākuwai in daylight,” Motukia muttered.“Their fight would have been futile ...33 minutes ago
- Burma the flying elephant
After about two and a half years of planning and waiting, New Zealand’s last elephant has moved to her new home at Monarto Safari Park in South Australia.Burma and her “human herd”, that is, her keepers, arrived last week, and she’s settling in well, according to Auckland Zoo’s Andrew Coers.“Something ...33 minutes ago
- NZ’s membership of Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance in jeopardy
Senior ministers in the coalition suggested NZ’s membership will be re-evaluated if it restarts offshore oil and gas drilling The post NZ’s membership of Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance in jeopardy appeared first on Newsroom. ...33 minutes ago
- Raw Politics: Six months in a leaky Bill
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon did not meet the Treaty Principles Bill hikoi crowd, sees “nothing” of merit in the Act-proposed law but the Parliament his Government dominates will spend six months debating a “divisive” measure.That’s because he has accepted there needs to be “aeration” of people’s views on the Treaty, ...33 minutes ago
- Taken to the brink, Govt is now close to selling big Whakapapa ski field
Bidder Whakapapa Holdings walked away from the sales process last year, but says it’s now ‘95% there’ on a purchase agreement – so who blinked first? The post Taken to the brink, Govt is now close to selling big Whakapapa ski field appeared first on Newsroom. ...33 minutes ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 November
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions.The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...33 minutes ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 22 November
The post Daily crossword, Friday 22 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...33 minutes ago
- China likely to strengthen regional relationships in response to another Trump term
Opinion: Recent discussions in Shanghai provide some insight into what’s likely to be on the table The post China likely to strengthen regional relationships in response to another Trump term appeared first on Newsroom. ...33 minutes ago
- Watts nears a landmark deal on global carbon trading
A framework for global carbon trading under the Paris Agreement is finally nearing completion at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan after years of halting talks.Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is one of two ministers tasked by the COP29 hosts with landing a long-sought deal on Article 6 of the climate accord, ...47 minutes ago
- Grattan on Friday: Marles plays a defensive bat on nuclear as the government rushes to get though la...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Richard Marles is an ambitious man who hasn’t given up the dream of one day reaching the top job. But, despite being deputy prime minister, his profile is much lower than that of Treasurer Jim ...6 hours ago - NEW POLL: Kiwis Overwhelmingly Support MPs’ Expenses Transparency Law Change
62% of respondents support the extension of the OIA to cover MPs’ spending, compared to just 13% opposed and 24% were unsure. ...8 hours ago - The House: Meanwhile, a week of passing law
The political week has been packed with worthy distractions, but all week Parliament has focused on passing new laws. Here are the highlights. ...8 hours ago - The biggest difference between Hīkoi mō te Tiriti and past hīkoi: More support from non-Māori
Analysis - The diversity of voices during the hīkoi was noticeable - from tangata moana to young immigrants to elderly Pākehā from the South Island. ...9 hours ago
- The House: Samoan citizenship restoration – ‘It means we belong to this land’
When the bill to restore NZ citizenship to some Samoans passed this week, Parliament's galleries were full to the brim with members of the community. ...10 hours ago
- More Delays In Action On Use Of Puberty Blockers With Children
Women’s Rights Party Co-leader Jill Ovens says the Ministry has put New Zealand children at risk by continuing to allow “off-label” prescribing of puberty blockers at far higher rates than other similar countries. ...11 hours ago
- Police Minister adamant he wasn’t aware of gang members training at gun clubs
That is despite two papers from police that raised the matter with him. ...11 hours ago
- Shorten declares himself ‘a proud moderate’, saying Australians ‘in the middle’ shouldn’t ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Bill Shorten has declared himself “a proud moderate” in a valedictory speech declaring parliament has the responsibility to ensure the extremes of left and right do not set the terms of political debate. Shorten, ...11 hours ago
- New ‘best practice’ principles for superannuation products are coming. We asked a panel of exper...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer Studio Romantic/Shutterstock We all know how important it is to save enough money for retirement – but what about spending it wisely when we get there? Even for those who have built up a suitable ...11 hours ago
- Government accused of betraying Kiwis’ trust over lack of consultation on live exports
The government has always vowed to reinstate live exports by sea, which was banned by the previous Labour government. ...12 hours ago
- 7 things you can do if you think you sweat too much
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Freeman, Associate Professor of Dermatology, Bond University ERIK Miheyeu/Shutterstock Sweating is our body’s way of cooling down, a bit like an internal air conditioner. When our core temperature rises (because it’s hot outside, or you’re exercising), sweat glands all ...12 hours ago
- Phenergan for under 6s is now banned due to hallucination fears. Here’s what to use instead
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nial Wheate, Professor of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Macquarie University Australia’s drug regulator has issued a safety warning over the medicine Phenergan and related products containing the antihistamine drug promethazine. The Therapeutic Goods Administration said the over-the-counter products should not be given to children ...12 hours ago
- A new stage adaptation of Peter Carey’s Jack Maggs is a delightful homage to theatrical storytelli...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Campbell, Lecturer, Performing Arts, UniSA Creative, University of South Australia Matt Byrne/STCSA Jack Maggs is a delight and a homage to theatrical storytelling in Australia. Based on Peter Carey’s bestselling novel, Jack Maggs follows the ex-convict as he lands ...12 hours ago
- The government has introduced laws for its social media ban. But key details are still missing
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Angus, Professor of Digital Communication, Director of QUT Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology Ron Lach/Pexels The federal government today introduced into parliament legislation for its social media ban for people under 16 years. Communications Minister Michelle ...12 hours ago
- Archives NZ, National Library to cut 27 roles
The Department of Internal Affairs wants to bring the two organisations under the joint leadership of the Chief Archivist and National Librarian. ...13 hours ago
- Gang patch ban: Members warn of potential for violence to ‘erupt’ as new laws enforced
"I can't see this lasting unless they have a budget to lock fullas up in jail which I think is absolutely stupid, really it's ludicrous," Ngavii Pekapo, who set up a Mongrel Mob chapter 54 years ago, says. ...13 hours ago
- ACT leader David Seymour raises doubts about Waikato medical school
Government documents show ACT leader David Seymour told the government he was "dissatisfied" with a cost-benefit analysis. ...13 hours ago
- National’s Erica Stanford allegedly calls Labour’s Jan Tinetti a ‘stupid bitchR...
The Education Minister has apologised in Parliament for her remark. ...13 hours ago
- Labour backs new Police Commissioner – but warns against routine arming
The alternative to policing by consent would be a police state, which New Zealanders don't want, the party says. ...14 hours ago
- Youth on boot camp pilot re-offended five weeks after release
Children's Minister Karen Chhour said while it was disappointing, it would naïve to think none of the participants would lapse. ...15 hours ago
- In photos: People of the hīkoi, and why they marched
Hikoi mō Te Tiriti has come to an end, going down in history as the largest march to Parliament in Aotearoa. ...15 hours ago
- ‘Everything is becoming a culture war’: Jon Ronson on conspiracies and cycleways
Ahead of his appearance in Aotearoa, the acclaimed British journalist, podcaster and documentarian talks to Stewart Sowman-Lund about why people are still fascinated by the fringes. The last place I would expect to find Jon Ronson is relaxing in the countryside. The iconic British journalist and writer is best known ...16 hours ago
- Kia kaha Lebanon: NZ media only tell half your story of struggle
The United States has vetoed a UN Security Council ceasefire resolution — for the fourth time — in Israel’s war on Gaza, while Hezbollah demands a complete ceasefire and “protection of Lebanon’s sovereignty” in any deal with Israel. Amid the death and devastation, Joe Hendren reflects on his time in ...16 hours ago
- ‘Deserves a Bafta’: After the Party premieres in the UK to five-star reviews
The acclaimed New Zealand drama has just premiered on TV in the United Kingdom, and the five-star reviews are already flowing in. Six months after it was called a “blistering” “tour de force” by Australian critics, and nearly a year since The Spinoff declared it the best drama New Zealand ...16 hours ago
- Drugs are getting cheaper and easier to find in Aotearoa
New Zealanders are drinking and smoking less, but most other recreational drugs are becoming cheaper, more popular and more available, two new reports show. Two significant new surveys about drugs in Aotearoa were released this week, offering a rare insight into New Zealanders’ choice of substances, which ones are becoming ...16 hours ago
- COP29: ‘climate finance’ for the Pacific is mostly loans, saddling small island nations with mor...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Ratuva, Director, Macmillan Brown Centre for Pacific Studies, University of Canterbury Lenora Qereqeretabua, the deputy speaker of Fiji’s Parliament, at the COP29 climate summit. IISD/ENB/Mike Muzurakis, CC BY-SA As this year’s UN climate summit reaches its final stage of negotiations, Pacific ...17 hours ago
- Review: The magic of Wicked and the curse of corporate greed
The new movie musical is undoubtedly a fun watch, but it’s also proof that bigger isn’t always better, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund. Contains minor spoilers for Wicked. There’s no doubt that Wicked is going to be huge. No other pop culture event this year, save from maybe Charli XCX’s Brat, has ...18 hours ago
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
When do the results start coming in NZ time? Wednesday around noon?
'This is one to watch.' Bigger than West Wing, not as funny and sardonic as Yes Prime Minister. Will rival the Big Bang when the world is said to have been formed out of the void – unfortunately it may illustrate a reverse effect. Don’t wet your pants!
Meaningful results from around 1.30pm. I'll be watching the live feed on fivethirtyeight.com closely, as they will be looking at trends at county level.
Best to start watching around 1.30pm on Wednesday. I'll be turning to fivethirtyeight.com's online feed, with a large number of regional experts analysing data at county level.
Thanks Peter Haynes. So, if I google fivethirtyeight.com I should get it.
Here's a handy-dandy map of poll closing times.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/28/1988730/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Nov-3-2020-poll-closing-times-map
The earliest poll closing times are 6pm eastern standard time (they go off daylight savings this weekend), which will be noon here. But those earliest closures are parts of Indiana and Kentucky, so they're irrelevant (safe Repug) even if they start announcing results while some polling locations in that state are still open.
The earliest states of interest close at 7pm (1pm NZ) and may announce results soon thereafter. Florida and Georgia are the ones to watch. Virginia and Vermont should go Biden, South Carolina should be safe Repug.
North Carolina closes at 7:30 (1:30 NZ, nail biter), along with West Virginia (safe Repug) and Ohio (likely Repug, but if Biden wins he's probably got it in the bag)
8pm has Pennsylvania and Michigan, but they're unlikely to declare because of slow counting of mail ballots. But this is where the Tinyfingers Twittertwat is likely to start shitstirring. If it's a massive Biden blowout, this is where Texas might declare for Biden.
9pm is Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin. The last of the interesting states.
Various networks may (or may not) provide running updates throughout the day of what they get from exit polls. But I'm not going to pay any attention to that. That exit poll info is iffy at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
Thanks for that Andre. I've transferred to paper doc. for the big day. Mind you, it will depend on whether I am able to cope. The thought of four more years of Trump is terrifying.
Here's a handy summary of likely reporting times and what it likely means…
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
If Trump wins I wouldn't be surprised. Biden is starting to look tired and probably prefers to be sitting at home writing his memoirs.
What I am most worried about is the reaction of Trump supporters. I wouldn't rule out the odd pogrom or 2 either way.
Biden should win by a very comfortable margin.
Trump's reaction to a loss is likely to be a demonstration of denial and narcissism that will have to be seen to be believed.
Here's some speculation on what may happen.
https://www.salon.com/2020/10/28/trump-narcissism-psychology-election-loss-pathology-personality-disorders/
I'm kinda worried it will be like the moment familiar to many victims of domestic abuse that finally get together what it takes to leave: "If I can't have you, nobody can"
I suspect there's a plan in place if he goes full retard.
Am not optimistic for a Democratic win despite polls. The polls cannot predict turnout. Many US pundits are being cautious about backing the polls whole heartedly. Agree with Peter Haynes about the 2016 Comey “Bombshell”–I recall thinking “what the…” the second I heard it on RNZ at the time.
The US Electoral system has built in landmines and impedences as has been pointed out many times–40 mill Californians get two Senators, half a mill Montanans get two Senators…
Almost 2000 polling places closed, Mail boxes and sorting machines removed–Wall St Journal says a neighbourhood letter typically now takes six days. Democratic door knocking campaign has turned into ballot uplifting and delivery for voters that will hand them over, now that the intention not to count “late” ballots in some states has been made all too clear by the likes of Justice Kavanaugh.
But, but, don’t Republicans get affected by voter suppression too? The theory is complicated enrolment, removal of drop boxes and polling places, all hit poor and marginalised people the most. Not everyone can afford to go to a state centre to enrol with multiple IDs, or return to change a signature, or to a drop box two hours drive away. Gerrymandered borders for Congress favour Republican voters in some states.
I hope Joe Biden/Kamala Harris can do it against the odds (despite knowing Bernie “wuz robbed”–again.) The Americans, and the world deserve a little peace and quiet, no more Govt by Twitter and religious nutters. Just some stillness, pause for thought, and then back to dealing with Covid and Climate Disaster!
Agree with most of what you say, but… "The polls cannot predict turnout." The polls can and have measured levels of excitement around, and perceived importance of, the election, and intention to vote, and all of these are well up this election. We know that there have been record numbers of early votes cast (as you'd expect), but with lots of evidence of greater determination to vote in the long queues, etc. The experts are predicting "monster" turnout around 150 million. And more younger people are voting.
Polls should always be treated with due caution, and one poll is never enough on its own. But the sheer number of polls at this point of the race in the US, and the consistent margins for Biden in many swing states do augur well. A sophisticated model like Nate Silver's weights for quality of individual pollsters based on history and methods employed, which makes me a lot more comfortable.
And voilà! An excellent summary of voter enthusiasm appears. It's important to note that Democratic voters aren't as enthusiastic about Biden as Republicans are about Trump, but they are more enthusiastic about voting. And that's what we are seeing by all accounts. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-say-theyre-fired-up-to-vote-especially-democrats/
And voilà! An excellent summary of voter enthusiasm appears. It's important to note that Democratic voters aren't as enthusiastic about Biden as Republicans are about Trump, but they are more enthusiastic about voting. And that's what we are seeing by all accounts.
Some interesting fallout from the MSM Universal Messaging 'Vote Biden…He's Not Trump..and, um, well thats it"..though I suspect this will make some folk in these parts fonder of The Intercept..
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/523402-glenn-greenwald-resigns-from-the-intercept
The electorate is more polarised than ever before
This cannot be overemphasized. Biden leads Trump by about 9 points nationally, but Trump is competitive in enough states that a large (but not unprecedented) polling error in his favour could still lead to his winning a second term.
That we're still talking about the race being moderately competitive is astonishing. The last time a candidate won by more than 9 points was 1984!
In past elections where one candidate has held a lead around this size, the electoral college has been a total blowout. For instance Bush Snr took over 400 EV's in '88 with an 8% margin over Dukakis.
Preliminary US data suggests strong V shaped recovery.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate
The commentators are telling us the key states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. Back in 2016 Trump won all those states and took the presidency.
Biden is ahead in the polls in these states. If he wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, he should be there. In that scenario Trump would have to win Florida and North Carolina to have any chance and in this scenario Nevada would come into play. Biden is currently ahead in Nevada
I think we are on the verge of something big. The early voting suggests an intent, not often seen from American voters.
The aftermath that Peter Haynes talks about is a very real possibility. I hope the authorities are ready for it.
I get my information from http://www.realclearpolitics.com.
Just keep in mind Real Clear Politics poll averages are usually more heavily influenced by Repug-friendly polls than other poll aggregators like fivethirtyeight or 270towin. A state or national poll average from them usually includes Rasmussen reports, that reportedly weights by party identification (which almost all other pollsters consider bad practice because that changes so easily and quickly unlike sex, education, age etc), and/or Trafalgar Group, which have devised a sampling method specifically designed to get responses from hypothetical "shy Trump voters" (and way overestimated Repug vote share in 2018).
So I kinda look at RCP's averages as a likely worst case.
Another wrinkle is that Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are likely to be slow to report results from mail-in ballots, because they don't start processing them until Election Day. Mail-in ballots are expected to be heavily in favour of Biden, while in-person on-the-day votes are expected to trend more Repug. That's part of the reason Hair Twitler is trying to set the stage to try to declare victory election night and discard what hasn't been counted by then.
However, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina in particular have good systems for counting early and mail-in ballots. So there's a good chance there is a positive result for Biden on the night in those states lifting him over 270 Electoral College votes, which then reduces the likelihood of violence and chaos.
Biden only needs Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada (all very likely) with Arizona (close) and a district vote from either Nebraska or Maine (most likley).
And he is still competitive in Florida N Carolina and Georgia – so as you note the delay in the final result for Pennsylvania which Trump could try to exploit (Pennsylvania has a Republican House which would deliver their EC votes to Trump) is not likely to be significant with Biden getting to 270 on the night.
What about Ohio and voter suppression tactics
Ohio is very unlikely to be of significance. If Biden wins Ohio, then Ohio will likely be supplying around his 340th to 360th Electoral College votes. About the only scenario in which Ohio has a substantial effect is if Biden wins there by a big enough margin that they declare early in the night and tip Biden's count over 270, and thereby possibly damp down some of the potential chaos and violence.
Any voter suppression is basically a done deal by now, except for maybe armed thugs turning up to polling booths on the day. Any challenges to laws wrongly disenfranchising people basically have to be done and dusted by election day. After election day, the counts go according to the laws as they stand on election day, and there's no mechanism after election day for redressing people getting disenfranchised before election day.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/429552/american-fiasco-record-covid-increase-as-election-looms
MFAT are issuing safe travel warnings to kiwis residing in the US citing pending violence and civil unrest with the pending US presidential election and up until the swearing in of a new president. Sounds pretty much like it is a forgone conclusion there is going to be ructions over there.
For all those with loved ones living there you have my sympathy and understanding of your fears. We have family in Maryland and they are housebound and well aware of what may happen. The pandemic on top of it makes this for a nasty outcome. Lots of good thoughts go to those who are anxious over there.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/us-elections-mfat-issues-safe-travel-warning-of-political-violence/KMFHPIFEDNV2MWNHFKL37ABUKU/
Trump is going to win in an absolute landslide. Looking at both sides of the political spectrum, I don't understand how you can see it any other way.
More than willing to eat humble pie on the 4th (NZ time) but I very confident I won't be.
Define "win in an absolute landslide".
🙄
The only way Chump "wins" anything is through stealing.
He has to "win" this election, for he is toast otherwise. The court cases against him will be flying in thick and fast without the Barr on the Justice Dept. Incitement of domestic terrorism being his latest offence.