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6:00 am, March 2nd, 2022 - 65 comments
Categories: open mike -
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Luxon on TV1 Breakfast this morning earnestly confirming that he doesn’t know anything.
Saw him briefly – I thought he was looking strained – as if the job is already taking a toll.
Did he know that he use to run an Airline though?
During the good times could be a struggle for him in today's environment, safer where he is now, easy money being a politican.
Sounds like he did as badly as Hipkins did on One Zb this morning. Luckily they only have about two listeners so I've been told.
We can finally buy RAT tests. We should have been able to do this long ago.
Price war beckons as The Warehouse starts selling rapid antigen tests | Stuff.co.nz
They were of no use long ago because of their inaccuracy. When the number of cases of covid in the community was tiny, a positive covid results was nearly 100% likely to be wrong. It was just sending well people home to isolate. There only use was in high risk areas such as at the border.
They are of more use now that PCR testing is getting overwhelmed in Auckland and the rates in the community are much higher. I know of someone who got a negative RAT and a positive PCR.
Yup. RATs have some limited value once things have gone pear-shaped. They'll maybe stop some symptomless Covid-positive people from wandering around and unwittingly infecting other people. That might slow the velocity of an outbreak somewhat – maybe. But it's only mitigation – RATS have no place in the important work of trying to stop things going pear-shaped to begin with.
Thought I'd group source a query. There appears to be one or two Standardistas who have a bit of beauracratic health knowledge.
I understand that hospitals are accredited. This accreditation is dependent on different things and one of them is staffing.
Is this so?
The staffing of different departments needs to be at a 'safe' level eg numbers, skill mix etc.
Then if things get really dire, a commissioner can be appointed.
Am I on the right track
Cheers in advance, I am away from the net for most of the day.
This?
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/regulation-health-and-disability-system/certification-health-care-services
how is
USA invading Iraq
different from
Russia invading Ukraine
?
No difference. Two wrongs don't make a right. The people of the Ukraine have an absolute right to self-determination and their cultural identity, AKA freedom.
This is what freedom actually means rather than being annoyed at having to wear a mask in a pandemic, and tens of thousands of people just like you and me are preparing to kill and be killed for it as we speak.
I notice one big difference….the U.S was not subjected to worldwide sanctions and opprobrium.
"The people of the Ukraine have an absolute right to self-determination"
sounds fine, but has never ever ever been put into practice.. that sentence is total nonsense
even in our own common law there are countless duties one owes to one's neighbours… nobody has the right to do whatever they wish, particularly when that involves putting said neighbour at risk
ffs this is so basic it shouldn't even need to be said
Similarities and differences between the invasions of Iraq and Ukraine are explored here by General Petraeus in a useful interview.
David Petraeus on What Iraq Tells Us About Ukraine – The Atlantic
My post yesterday (https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-01-03-2022) stirred up a hornets nest… and most of it seems to have stemmed from missing the point I was trying to make.
The main point of this is about TRUST
After all, I am told to trust the experts
But first to address her statement “The vaccine has never been sold as being able to prevent people catching Covid. “
Google search for “vaccine will preventing covid”
Google comment displayed above any results
[quote without link deleted]
Anne (post 7.4) jumped down my throat, and it looks like the paragraph she was upset about was
[quote without link deleted]
The Scottish data tables showed the rates per 100,000.
(https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/11763/22-02-16-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf)
I will use some made up numbers for ease of clarity and simplicity, to clarify the misunderstanding
Covid data for Mars for the past week
Unvaccinated
Population 1,000,000
Cases 10,000
Rate per 100k 1,000
Two doses
Population 1,500,000
Cases 38,000
Rate per 100k 2,533
In this example the vaccinated are catching covid at 2.5 time the rate as the unvaccinated, ( or more than twice as likely to catch covid.. )
The Scottish data ( this is an overview, exact numbers unimportant ) from October consistently showed the double vaxxed and boosted were far better off than the unvaccinated in all categories, but as the Omicron wave hit, and vaccine effectiveness fell, there was a change in the relative rates, and by early January, the bias showed the other way, with higher rates for the double vaxed over unvaxed for cases, hospital admission and death, but the boosted still had better rates.
They were concerned that people would mis-interpret that data as showing the vaccine was worse than ineffective.
They suggested part of the problem was ‘it has its limitations when people leave Scotland and do not inform ‘
So lets run Mars again, but with a corrected population to match the 'error' because some people left without letting the govt know.
Unvaccinated
Population 400,000
Cases 10,000
Rate per 100k 2,5000
Two doses
Population 1,500,000
Cases 38,000
Rate per 100k 2,533
So to make the vaccine look like it is not negative, 600,000 unvaccinated would have to leave without telling the govt.
The first set of numbers for Mars are actually pretty close to Scottish numbers from dec 25 to 31
It is interesting that I saw no mention of what I would be the most significant confounder that makes the vaccine look bad. Unvaccinated not bothering to get tested !
Failure to test is very defiantly happening here ( I know, because unvaxed friends said they would not bother as there was no benefit to getting tested. )
The Scottish data is a mess…. and If they publish such a mess and people get the wrong idea, whose fault is it? And when it changes from looking good to looking bad and they stop publishing it, they are going to look like they are trying to hide something.
Beautiful practical example of how to get people to distrust you.
They ( and people here ) want me to just trust them because they are the experts.
First cautionary tale, the Tuskegee Syphilis Study by the US public health service. They lied to a group of people with syphilis that they would treat them for free as if they joined the study.
But the 'experts' instead gave them placebos and watched 128 die.
I saw no reference in the wiki page to any experts going to jail…..
Then there is Pfizer, which has paid billions in fines for violating laws, but none of the people ever go to jail, they get to keep their bonuses.
I could have more trust if the people involved were rotting in jail…
Medsafe (NZ ) did some work to try and quantify how many people are being killed by the vaccine.
A rather important number….Look down near the bottom for this section where they looked all cause death data,
Over large numbers this is a useful tool, and in the past has found problems that would not be observed in other ways.
However they observed half the expected number of deaths.
This is a screaming alarm that they have some serious issues with either their data, assumptions or processing.
This sort of discrepancy should have sent them back to the drawing board to see what was going on, and they have had plenty of time, sitting at home on full pay while remote working….
How much confidence can you have in their data analysis….
In God we trust, everyone else, show me the data…
[quotes without links deleted. Links need to be direct. Please read this .https://thestandard.org.nz/some-notes-on-moderation/. You’re still in premod – weka]
mod note.
Apologies,
I thought that posting the exact search then quoting the google text would be sufficient in context with the way other posters do.
And i thought that posting the link to the open mike page and listing the post number would be enough.
I cant see how to edit, so will repost and embed the links.
cant see how to edit the existing so will repost w
editing comments only lasts ten minutes.
You have to link to the thing you are quoting directly. eg if it's to a comment in TS, then click on the date/time stamp of that comment, copy and paste the URL to your comment below the quote.
You said,
Think about how this works for other, especially moderators. One, google delivers results based on the individual searcher's history. So we're all going to get different results.
Two, you're asking us to do work when the onus is on you to make your argument and support it.
You could have done the google search yourself and then linked to that search. But it's still pretty vague, because it then assumes we are going to look at the search and parse what you meant.
Instead, make your point in your own words, briefly quote to support that, and provide a direct link to that quote.
a few further pointers.
Put the link in the clear, not embedded in text. That way it's very easy to see what the link it is to. This is especially important for people reading on a phone.
eg
.https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-01-03-2022/#comment-1869695
Rather than,
People make less mistakes with linking this way too.
Seeing as you know how to use tags, can you please use the quote tags instead of "". Again, this will make it much easier to read and understand what you are trying to say. This is in addition to what Incog has just said, the more you can make your comments comprehensible, the better the debate will be.
I was trying to follow the level of linking to substantiate claims that was being praticed by other commenters with respect to general claim etc
I guess i misjudged
No problem, I will work at being very pedantic about the linking.
it's ok, it's just a learning curve.
I’d also ask kindly that you’re more succinct. Your comments tend to be overly long with an awful lot of stuff to unpack and poorly structured, which makes it hard to parse your actual comment. To me, if feels like somebody is trying to gaslight me. Sadly, you’re not the only one doing this here …
My post yesterday () stirred up a hornets nest… and most of it seems to have stemmed from missing the point I was trying to make.
The main point of this is about TRUST
After all, I am told to trust the experts
But first to address her statement “The vaccine has never been sold as being able to prevent people catching Covid. “
Google search for “vaccine will preventing covid”
Google comment displayed above any results “All COVID-19 vaccines currently available in the United States are effective at preventing COVID-19. Staying up to date with COVID-19 vaccination gives most people a high level of protection against COVID-19. You should get a COVID-19 vaccine, even if you already had COVID-19.
“ Anne (post 7.4) jumped down my throat, and it looks like the paragraph she was upset about was
“So much data from government sources is inconsistent, or poorly organized or presented.
Just look at the Scotland data (which they have stopped publishing) which seemed to show that double vaxxed were more than twice as likely to catch covid as the unvaxed and also more likely to be hospitalized than the unvaxed “
“A deliberate misinterpretation! Of course there are going to be more vaxxed people catching Covid than unvaxxed people you twat. Take New Zealand for example. 95% of the population are double vaxxed and only 5% unvaxxed. Get the picture?
The vaccine has never been sold as being able to prevent people catching Covid.
But you are going to get a mild version of the disease with no long term consequences.
A factor you choose to ignore.
From what I understand world-wide… the most serious cases resulting in death are almost always among the unvaxxed so… if you choose to take that risk then be it on yourself if you end up in hospital gravely ill
. I'm not sure you are worthy of this response but it just might ring a bell.”
My reply
The Scottish data tables showed the rates per 100,000. (https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/11763/22-02-16-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf)
I will use some made up numbers for ease of clarity and simplicity, to clarify the misunderstanding, using the same base format as the Scottish data
Covid data for Mars for the past week. Total population 2,500,000
Unvaccinated
Population 1,000,000
Cases 10,000
Rate per 100k 1,000
Two doses
Population 1,500,000
Cases 38,000
Rate per 100k 2,533
In this example the vaccinated are catching covid at 2.5 time the rate as the unvaccinated, ( or more than twice as likely to catch covid.. )
The Scottish data ( this is an overview, exact numbers unimportant ) from October and before consistently showed the double vaxxed and boosted were far better off than the unvaccinated in all categories.
But as the Omicron wave hit, and vaccine effectiveness fell, there was a change in the relative rates, and by early January, the bias showed the other way, with higher rates for the double vaxed over unvaxed for cases, hospital admission and death, but the boosted still had better rates.
They were concerned that people would mis-interpret that data as showing the vaccine was worse than ineffective.
They suggested part of the problem was ‘it has its limitations when people leave Scotland and do not inform ‘
So lets run Mars again, but with a corrected population to match the 'error' because some people left without letting the govt know.
Unvaccinated
Population 400,000
Cases 10,000
Rate per 100k 2,5000
Two doses
Population 1,500,000
Cases 38,000
Rate per 100k 2,533
So to make the vaccine look like it is not negative, 600,000 unvaccinated would have to leave without telling the govt.
The first set of numbers for Mars are actually pretty close to Scottish numbers from dec 25 to 31
It is interesting that I saw no mention of what I think would be the most significant confounder that makes the vaccine look bad. Unvaccinated not bothering to get tested !
Failure to test is very defiantly happening here ( I know, because unvaxed friends said they would not bother as there was no benefit to getting tested. )
The Scottish data is a mess…. and If they publish such a mess and people get the wrong idea, whose fault is it? And when it changes from looking good to looking bad and they stop publishing it, they are going to look like they are trying to hide something.
Beautiful practical example of how to get people to distrust you.
They ( and people here ) want me to just trust them because they are the experts.
First a cautionary tale, the Tuskegee Syphilis Study by the US public health service. They lied to a group of people with syphilis that they would treat them for free as if they joined the study.
But the 'experts' instead gave them placebos and watched 128 die.
I saw no reference in the wiki page to any experts going to jail…..
Then there is Pfizer, which has paid billions in fines for violating laws, but none of the people ever go to jail, they get to keep their bonuses.
I could have more trust if the people involved were rotting in jail…
Medsafe (NZ ) did some work to try and quantify how many people are being killed by the vaccine.
A rather important number….Look down near the bottom for this section where they looked all cause death data.
Over large numbers this is a useful tool, and in the past has found problems that would not be observed in other ways.
However they observed half the expected number of deaths.
This is a screaming alarm that they have some serious issues with either their data, assumptions or processing.
This sort of discrepancy should have sent them back to the drawing board to see what was going on, and they have had plenty of time, sitting at home on full pay while remote working….
How much confidence can you have in their data analysis….
In God I trust, everyone else, show me the data…
Hamish I presume you read the report?
". Data in this table should not be used as a measure of vaccine effectiveness due to unaccounted for biases and risk factors in different populations. For more information, please see the….."
I counted FIVE of those warnings.
I did read that, and their musings as to why the data APPEARS to show the vax was innefective.
And I thought I was very clear that they bear reaponsability for presenting the data the way they did.
They set themselves up….
The devil is in the detail – comparing those vaccinated first because of their far higher risk due to their co-morbidities with those yet to be vaccinated due to their complete lack of co-morbidities is an exercise in foolishness IMO.
yup.
And on the trust side of things, when the vaccines first came out the covid strain of the day (not a bowel movement) was delta, against which several vaccines do massively reduce the infection rate.
Not sure it's a "trust" issue that covid mutates into new strains.
Obviously, we cannot trust the virus not to change its spots.
or spikes.
was trying to be subtle
They do an age standardization on the base numbers to get the displayed rate.
for example if I look at the hospitalization table, end Jan start Feb
Unvaxed base data in the table gives a raw rate of 11.8 but the age standardized rate almost tripples of 32.15
boosted raw rate 8.7 drops to adjusted rate of 7.47
So that is a pretty big bias to account for the unvaxed being probably younger and healthier and the boosted older.
Blending all the age groups into one is a hell of a messy job.
Israel data used to break it down into 10 yr band, and you could see the differences across the age bands
Now I am at my laptop a wee bit more
you clipped the word 'Warning' from the front,
In the PDF the whole warning is in red, pretty hard to miss…
But my memory was that it did not used to be there..
So looked back at the Jan 12 report
There is the usual fine print below the table, but then in normal size text is
"Age-standardised mortality rates for COVID-19 deaths shown in Table 3 are significantly lower for people who have received a booster or third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine compared to individuals that are unvaccinated or have received one or two dose of a COVID-19 vaccine."
As it was just below table 13, and table 3 is about contact tracing, and table 13 is about deaths, I think it is fair to assume they just missed a "1"
When the numbers look favorable, all is good, and you promote them, but when they turn against you, ….oops….you look like an idiot
Hamish this is only an opinion.just looked up Scottish public health service website.
They are saying people are misreporting data cherry picking different data from different days.
But they make a statement outline the reality.
Mainly around Deaths 83.7% unvaccinated.
7.6% I dose within 7days
7.9% 2 doses within 7days.
Yet it takes 2 weeks to gain full immunity so in fact if 14days taken into account maybe even lower numbers.
This 60-70km long "column" of Russian vehicles north west of Kyiv appears to be more of a road bound parking lot than an actual advance, given that its been there for two-three days and hasn't even managed to cover the 100km from the Russian border to Kiev.
However, this column represents the sort of target artillerists and attack pilots dream about. The fact that the Ukrainian have not be able to dent let alone massacre this Russian traffic jam indicates they've lost the power to conduct even limited offensive action/manoeuvre warfare and the defenders are now in a totally passive mode, awaiting the Russians in Kyiv and Kharkiv (the scene of four major battles in WW2 that left the city in ruins, the fifth battle of Kharkiv in eight decades is now underway) in what I think will be the most violent and prolonged urban street battle since Berlin in 1945 – bigger than Tet and the battle of Huế (a battle that lasted two months).
The final act of this war is going to be a savage and bloody street battle where the citizens of Kyiv are going to be subject to the indiscriminate barbarism of Russian military brutality we’ve seen previously inflicted on the citizens of Aleppo and the Chetchens.
A very long line of sitting ducks. If the Ukrainian nazis really had their act together they would have hangars full of these antiques designed to pound such targets:
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/06/20/screaming-bird-of-prey-how-the-ju-87-stuka-exceeded-its-life-span-and-carried-the-luftwaffe-through-wwii/
Russians have air superiority. This is why there has been a call for a no fly zone, as if that could be enforced without ending up with NATO Aircraft and Russian aircraft in direct conflict.
There has been evidence of drone strikes on this convoy and other Russian armour. However the number of drones and bombs the Ukranian nation have pales in comparison to the number of Russian military vehicles.
In this situation those who have taken up arms to defend against this invasion are best suited using their advantages. Small mobile units harry the convoy whilst obsticles are set up in the streets of cities. Other defenders identify choke points where they can engage restricted targets and be able to quickly relocated after fast attacks. Every street becomes a bloody battle.
This is what Putin has bought about by deciding to invade and remove a democratically elected Jew who you want to call a Nazi.
a democratically elected Jew who you want to call a Nazi
Was interesting until you made this mistake. The only Ukrainians I want to call nazis are the ones who actually present themselves to the world as such. In case you weren't reading comments here the other day the primary group seems to be the Azov regiment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion
If this is your reasoning then I worry about who is open to invasion and being tarred with the Nazi brush
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/09/white-supremacist-group-patriot-front-one-in-five-applicants-tied-to-us-military
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/sep/05/four-held-on-suspicion-of-being-members-of-outlawed-neo-nazi-group-national-action
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-defence-force-says-white-supremacist-is-a-former-soldier/WAKCYC7K4ENTMF2N26RGVKW2AI/
Possibly the Russian convoy is a decoy. Putin has enough rockets that he can fire them into Kyiv without entering Kyiv. As well the convoy can send missiles from the trucks. Putin will probably only send in ground troops when Kyiv is bombed heavily.
All that may be true Sanctuary but there may be other reasons like a lack of fuel at the front of the queue and the fact that the ground is not frozen as the Russians may have expected and the farmland is too boggy, certainly for fuel trucks, so the roads are the only option. Also the Ukrainians have demolished most of the bridges on the approach to Kviv. Also to keep in mind the early troops that were repulsed were the elite Special Forces units, if they have had their arse kicked there may well be reluctance amongst the leadership to take big risks.
An excellent opportunity for the Ukrainian oligarchs: send in a bunch of mobile fast-food outlets to cruise up & down the line providing better options for soldiers fed up with military hard-tack, employ locals to staff the operation, win/win all round…
If anyone wants to see an outstanding piece of rhetoric, and get a standing ovation from the most cynical of audiences, take 8 minutes out of your day to check out Zelinsky addressing the EU Parliament yesterday. It will put a wistful note of light in an otherwise dark day.
Zelensky receives standing ovation after speech to European Parliament – YouTube
Not even sure Dubcek could match it at the height of the 1968 PRague Spring.
Zelenski on phone to Putin:
"Hi Vladimir you want to hear a joke."
Vladimir : "OK"
Zelenski : Kyiv
Vladimir (puzzled) : I don't get it.
Zelenski : that's right b**** you don't.
How I see the invasion of Ukraine ending.
Putin will take Kyiv due to Russia having 100 million more population, so a superior army. Other countries are reluctant to send troops as this just prolongs a war so Zelensky will be forced out.
Once Putin has Ukrainia will this be enough for him?
How ever if he gets bogged down like Afghanistan and a Gurilla war by the Ukrainian's.
Pootin's reign as Dictator of Russia could be over.
What do you mean by bogged down like Afganistan?
I need to look up the history of the Russian Afganistan war 1979 – 1989 to see how it played out.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2bxpM20oXdM
interesting clip about Lia Thomas, who was born William Thomas and ranked 462 amongst male swimmers in the male category. Now as Lia Thomas swimming in the female category is coming first and breaking all sorts of records in the female category. But hey well trans women are real women.
tbh I didn’t watch the interview, the opening statement, was 462, now 1st was enough for me."……….
For the readers, transcript from a mother of one of the female swimmers here (posted audio yesterday) https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-01-03-2022/#comment-1869801 can be found here:
https://otter.ai/u/N7gCN1Xqfp6oVI5EeHFcFN6B3mQ
Those of you so certain of the non-evidential inclusion of transwomen in women's sports, should be able to withstand listening/reading this and coming up with justification for this situation.
I await your comments below, but anticipate your continued silence.
I saw a response somewhere that the girls may have to make a hard choice, but if enough do it now they could save girls sports.
If all the girls decided that at the start whistle, they all just sat down instead of racing, and face being kicked of the teams, they would send a message.
Why bother trying when you have no chance.
Embarrass enough people with trans only races like that and you might get girls sports to survive.
For the trans, have trans sports…
"For the trans, have trans sports…"
Or … for the reasons of safety and fairness, compete in the appropriate biological sex, weight and age categories – as everyone else does.
That is very amusing, but not for the other female swimmers. Jonah Lomu should have converted and played female rugby. Imagine that. He was already hard to stop,
Very very unfunny for the female swimmers, especially when Lia goes into their change room.
and this mother trying to stand up for her daughter and being silenced. It’s an outrage.
There has been a lot of talk about crazy views of the protesters at parliament, but tbh, I don’t see a lot of difference between some of their unscientific views and the idea that Lia is really a woman cause she feels like one and so therefore can compete with the women
The testimony of the mother is far from amusing, as is the situation and the impact.
What is it that you find funny?
Í can simply not get my head around how a person who is/was male, can compete in the same league as women. "Amusing" was the wrong word, I actually think it is crazy and unfair. Like I said above what if Jonah Lomu had played against women? What if Novak Djokovick played in the womens comp? We know what the result would be. IMO Laurel Hubbard should not have been in the womens weightlifting. Perhaps there needs to be a mens, womens and a third category.
Perhaps there needs to be a mens, womens and a third category.
There is no need for the expense of a third category, when categories based on fairness and safety already exist. No one is prevented from participation or competition.
It is crazy and unfair.
This just flat out wrong. This is worse than Aussie's 501s.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/02/christchurch-family-being-inhumanely-forced-out-of-country-because-4yo-disabled-daughter-can-t-get-residency.html
This along with the disabled man who is to be deported to India after 22 years living in NZ reflect really poorly on this government and the lack of value they place upon disabled people. Far to often we have heard similar stories.
Pretty much out and out discrimination if you ask me… has the disability commissioner had anything to say?
Somewhat galling that this Govt is very vocal about 501s when they’re kicking people out during to disability.
I am favor of having a high bar for giving people the gift of NZ citizenship but in this case the child is a NZ citizen so her disability status should have no impact on the decision about the status of the rest of the family.
I am aware that the rules around citizenship by birth in the country were changed quite a while back I don't remember the details but I imagine the poor young girl is not a citizen.
Agree – people born in NZ on or after 1 January 2006 are only citizens if either or both parents are NZ citizens or have residence class visas.
Thanks to Winston Peters
Possibly, although this particular provision was added to the relevant Bill in 2004 and passed in 2005 before NZ First were in government with Labour.
Maybe we'll see some courage somewhere in government to change the settings, not just make exceptions every now and then. The settings go back to at least 2005, must be time for another review.