Written By:
notices and features - Date published:
6:00 am, December 2nd, 2021 - 91 comments
Categories: open mike -
Tags:
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Not really a surprise that 48% of proerties are in trust. Tax avoidance at it finest. At the same time, and may I add in my book no difference in terms of crime intention, gangs have doubled in numvers and a softly, dont rattle the cage approach is applied. Very soon its Mad Max country and it should not be surprising that the educated move to Australia. It has already started.
The video clips of some of those recent gang funeral processions are pretty reminiscent of Mad Max scenes, as are some of those reports of Auckland & East Coast drive-by shoot ups.
You could be right that the educated are moving to Oz, Fw – but what’s your evidence that it’s already started? Anecdata or official statistics?
Tamki's March's were Mad Max.
Two of my colleagues are already on the move and they tell me that they know others do this too, so its info from the ground up – so to speak. Its not surprising really.
There is also likely to be a concerted move to smaller towns and rural areas by those attempting to avoid future big city lockdowns. Panic may well rule for quite a while as the spread continues.
Ah, Australia gets New Zealanders, over years turns them or their offspring into people they don't want, and sends them here as 501s.
When they get here their Mad Max lifestyles make the country so undesirable the educated leave to go to Australia. Is that it?
Christ. A plan so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel !
Elvira comes up rapids for feeding: Gezza's Stream – video Dailymotion
(Viewers may need to click on the speaker icon for sound. Default seems to be sound muted.)
My very first Gezza's Stream wildlife video, using the 2 megapixel camera of my 3G Samsung clamshell cell phone. July 2016.
I'm so embarrassed that I called these two ducks Miss OB (Orange Beak) and Miss GB (Green Beak), thinking they were both mallard hens. I know now that OB is a hybrid mallard/grey duck drake. They were a breeding couple for that breeding season.
The pair of them took an instant like to my back yard and waddled all around it for several months, looking for & finding insects in the garden and lawns.
https://dai.ly/k1AAWikqXQR7GKiS7zv
Ah. Cracked it!
Copying the "Share" link makes them display here as click n play videos.
Shane Reti needs to jump ship and go to NZ First. I do not think he is a good fit for the National Party with Luxon as leader.
Now that would be interesting. Reti has his profession as a GP and a medical author to fall back on if NZ First does not make it back in 2023.
THEY (National) need HIM to stay. He's Māori, a medical doctor, a moderate, a businessman, sensible, a very careful, precise communicator.
Will be interesting to see what spokesperson role Luxon gives him to tempt him to stay on board.
More to the point – New Zealand needs him – the parliamentary talent puddle is too shallow as it is without losing anyone with any ability at all.
Got that right, Maurice. Quite scary the lack of obvious good material in the House for voters to work with.
Reti would be an asset to any political party.
Yes. He should have been elected leader instead of that unimaginably unmitigated disaster that was Judith Collins.
A journo who agrees with Treetop.
Sidebar heading is: All the reasons Shane Reti shouldn't lead National sound like positives
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300467522/the-national-party-opted-for-predictable-christopher-luxon-over-changemaker-shane-reti
This may have been innovative having two deputy leaders of the National Party, Reti and Willis. Were Luxon not to work out Reti could step in as leader and Willis to become the deputy leader.
no, willis will be next nat leader. notjohn will need to stay clear of passing bus's.
I would have picked Willis over Luxon.
notjohn? Please clarify.
I would hazard a guess that notjohn is Christopher Luxon (he’s NOT John Key).
And that the reference to passing buses is a euphemism for Willis’s ambition.
Just the man for the …job!-his faith is a personal matter,his property investments are a…personal matter.But he turned around Air NZ and Unilever Canada….believe it…or not.
Christopher Luxon's property gains soar as National promises to tackle housing crisis | Stuff.co.nz
"he turned around Air NZ and Unilever Canada"
Yeah …nah….Tui
Totally. More like a gattung/sperings/ferrier whose tenure had favourable conditions with a brief of dont f it up.
2 out of 3 ain't bad eh Teresa.
i knew yesterday that this scheme is bullshit and today it was confirmed.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/hospo-misses-out-on-37m-government-voucher-package-to-reactivate-auckland/Y3QTKI6ORUYVWXACE2LG3THOQM/
How about they pull a Biden and give any welfare dependent family a Christmas bonus – anywhere in our fair land – of say an extra week of benefit and then let these people choose how to spend it?
But no, this is the council owned business recovery package, and the rest of the businesses that have been hit the hardest, the ones that actually have to work to make money, oh well seize the day sucker, and make it work. You are of no importance to Labour.
that is not 'business' support that is throwing money at the Council, another lottery for poor and the desperate to maybe mabye get a ticket in (works so well in MIQ), some money for food banks, and it is cynical to the hilt. No kindness here. No siree, the lady don't support the poor. She supports the rich, she knows where her next job will come from.
They could have announced a little stimulus payment for those that have the least amount of money to spend, for those that lived the last three month on food parcels from charity, but hey now, they need a little Hunger Game lottery is a sexy thing, a whole lot a money thrown at some Council 'attractions', and i am sure that Grant Boy will be so happy if this scheme will also result in an 'underspend'.
Oh and it wont start before Jan 15.
Labour, can't won't will not do a nice thing for those that desperately need a nice thing. The poor. Or the businesses that actually are a week short of closing.
Labour 2023 – does it look like we care?
A bleak analysis, but I actually agree with you & see where you are coming from.
You are flat wrong as usual.
Government isn't directly subsidising alcohol and restaurants.
That is, they are subsidizing family activities.
And taking post codes into account in allocation means it's more likely to assist the less well off
And by targeting post Jan 15 they avoid subsidy into a period no one needs it, and focus on extending the expenditure shoulder.
Ask you own Council to do something.
How much of the taxpayers money have they already had via covid subsidies? And they still want more.
Capitalist’s happy to take socialist money.
Hypocrites.
'it is better to be beautiful…than to be 'nice'-but it is better to be…'nice' than to be…ugly'.
(O.Wilde )
Except he was wrong. It's better to be nice than to be beautiful.
How do you…know?
So many "beautiful people" are reported to be rather nasty. The lifestyle news is full of stories about them.
Best bet is to be beautiful and nice. Works for me.
People have said to me: You are a "nice" B…stard!
No one ever thinks I am beautiful though …….
"So many "beautiful people" are reported to be rather nasty."
I knew quite a few of them in my younger days. They were not necessarily nasty, but were often extremely arrogant and they believed themselves to be superior to the rest of the population. It mattered who your parents were and what school you went to. In reality they were incredibly boring people with little personality. I learnt to avoid them like the plague.
Well perhaps its good for the lottery winners but the news is not so good for those on fixed income struggling with rapidly rising inflation and a council that uses its residents to fund its green wash,
https://auckland.scoop.co.nz/2021/12/climate-levy-a-cash-grab-dressed-up-as-a-green-fig-leaf/
Depressing.
Good territory for National's new Police spokesperson under Luxon to focus on & say what they're going to do about the problem 1. short term, 2. long term.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/gang-member-numbers-almost-double-around-the-country-in-five-years/MDXZ4BWDVO3P4I7CWWW6Y6UAPA/.
Loyal, hold the line, and do what you're told, up all night, sleep all day, plenty of mates and as much piss, pot, puss and P as your heart desires.
Life's a party. What's not to like about being a parasitic POS?
/
Being hunted in every breath, being shunned by 99% of society, low likelihood you will get any reward for your work other than a wage, high likelihood of serious beatings and injury, unlikely to have long term relationships, unlikely to get ahead in life, high likelihood your entire group will be attacked without warning, high likelihood of injury causing permanent disability, reasonably high risk of long period of jail, very high likelihood of poverty in old age, high likelihood of shorter than average lifespan.
That the victims of gang offending are almost exclusively in the same group reinforces the parasitic nature of them and their organisations.
Sounds more fun than going to work in some dull job with no real hope of excitement or challenge bringing home just enough to pay off some rich fallas investment for him, or get your own house with a mortgage so big you'll be doing well to pay it off by the time you retire
Out numbering the Army.
Isn't that the intel list of suspected gang associates? The one it's easy to get onto, hard to get off, and only started a few years ago? The one Mickeysavage wrote a post on?
Five years ago was 2016. When the Gang list was first created. Apparently, they've doubled the number on the list since they counted off the ones they already knew about when they compiled the initial list.
How many, I wonder, have been involved for years, just not obviously enough to be added in 2016? How many happen to be, e.g. co-offenders with low-level gang affiliates who got nabbed doing their own thing, rather gang activity? How many have been kicked out or left the gangs since then, but are still on the gang list?
The list is a good intelligence tool. Having it centralised means the information isn't trapped in regional silos, taking ages to figure out the purpose of an individual from the Hawkes' Bay coming into Marlborough.
But it's not a census of gang membership. The Herald is writing cheques their data can't cash.
It's clear now that lockdowns cannot practically stop Delta (here or overseas) and come with significant and negative side effects across the board, including missed cancer screenings and appointments and a range of mental health outcomes.
My young nephew, who already was a somewhat cautious and anxious little chap, is now such a fear filled, reserved boy. At an age he should be exploring and testing boundaries, he's developed to be withdrawn and anxious. Outside = danger danger and he clings to his mask like Linus does to his blanket. It breaks my heart sometimes and I shudder to think of the stunted mental development across children and what this will bring to the future.
It's also becoming clearer that the modelling on Covid infections and ICU was hopelessly over-egged. It's understandable in a way – better to be the scientist who cried wolf than didn't cry at all. Especially when you're being paid $6 million like Professor of Physics Hendy's little venture was.
But this mis-assessment and groupthink happened here and abroad. UK's Freedom Day was meant to be a catastrophic but it wasn't and the UK is looking better positioned for the winter than many European nations. Yes, it came at a cost, but so has our course! (Not least the mass human tragedy that is MIQ).
What's the damage here, in our radical Government policies? Immense, even apart from our main city reduced to a zombietown for months. There is a radical repositon of freedom as conditional, state coercion as forever necessary response (remember, Labour won't be in power forever..), human rights viewed as a barrier not an enabler, techno-solutions embraced to reduce humanity to a single variable, and society already prone to this now let loose on segregation and demonisation. The public interest narrowly redefined by a narrow group of elites.
At what point do people say – 'enough of your ridiculous traffic lights, I'm not buying this false narrative of "you're a Libertarian granny killer" simply because I believe other values (and quality of lives) matter and that loss is part of life we need to rationally asses and respond to and return our democracy'. Summer is the right time to return, as we sit at an extremely low risk level for most Kiwis and peak immunity from vaccination.
Continuing our current, narrow, and radical path carries costs just too great for how we should want our society to be – inclusive, positive, free, meaningful, and with critical thought embraced. Not a ragtag, groupthink, semi-democracy filled with fear.
Just as an abundance of risk-taking and underreaction is damaging, so is an overreaction of caution and fear hugely damaging. It's time we started enabling our citizens to assess and respond to risks themselve. Its time we let go of Linus's blanket.
I scroll down the Herald on my phone.
"How Auckland avoided the hundreds of Covid deaths in Sydney and Melbourne. The outbreaks in Sydney and Melbournes have each claimed more than 500 lives."
Further down: "Mike Hosking: Damning report on Covid-19 response tells us what we already know. Opinion: Government's Covid response has been lacking since day one."
The response has been so lacking we've missed out on having thousands more deaths. So lacking 190,000 have come through MIQ and got on with their lives back here.
I see Fiji, population less than a million, has had 56,000 covid cases to our <12,000 and 696 deaths compared to our 44. Our response in not free-wheeling has clearly been lacking, a real disaster.
And if we had the same infection rate as the UK, we would be having about 400 cases per day, and 20 odd deaths.!!!
You know we go into the full managed Traffic Light system tomorrow right?
Well said James the second.
I was talking to a buddy yesty and he is despairing. Slow to get vaccinated as he had all sorts of auto-immune issues start after his first round of vaccines as an infant.
Now, as an employer, he is having to face up to some of his staff and tell them their employment is untenable due to their understandable reluctance. Try replacing experienced kitchen staff who can work at a high standard. Even complying all this may not save the business, a business that him and his wife work at 70 + hours a week. As well as a few members of the family.
Then to add insult to injury, it isn't necessarily the unvaxxed that are the concern, the omicron was bought into Aus and spread by a fully vaccinated person.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/456975/new-omicron-case-found-in-nsw-hundreds-of-covid-19-swabs-to-be-retested
We need to rethink this traffic light shenanagins. It ain't fit for purpose.
Will Omicron idle at the RED traffic light …. or 'break through' on the ORANGE?
Probably won't wait for the GREEN light.
We need to rethink this traffic light shenanagins. It ain't fit for purpose.
Based on vaccination status…no it ain't.
Not with Omicron, and arguably arguable with Delta.
It's a tricky little virus.
Tricky virus, true.
The fearful, nasty, arrogant attitudes is not necessary and can be avoided, if people would just calm down a little.
Calm down a little…or Rap? This'll cheer us up. Surprised it hasn't been posted already…
lol great stuff
Based on having a highly vaccinated population?
A vaccine which is inadequate to make us free..but inadequate to mandate and divide the country?
None of you actually make arguments except: smugness that there is danger. So what? We all know that. That's not an argument for Stockholm Syndrome of a country.
And the next variant, and the next, and the next? I genuinely think many people can't let go, regardless. I'm not prone to exaggeration generally but I think we'll look back and see when Nz lost something immense.
As explained by modellers and professional advisors relying on modelling, there are multiple scenarios checked, and then the calculations/outcomes usually presented as best case, worst case and probable which is hopefully in the middle somewhere.
Worst case scenarios are labelled as that along with the assumptions behind them. We have avoided those worst case scenarios by understanding those assumptions and taking measures to minimise them. This is not a failure of modelling, it is a success.
That said, to quote someone else, "all modelling is wrong, some modelling is useful".
This is hilarious.
I've got a magic murder spray. I wear it and it protects me from murder.
You want proof? I haven't been murdered yet.
Correlation does not equal causation.
Modelling is not any kind of science or objectivity if its not falsifiable. If ANY outcome validates the approach then this is ridiculous. This is not some goddam hypothetical computer model of stock market events, its peoples livelihoods and freedoms.
If that's what we're going to base the biggest decisions of our country, severe limits to human rights, and medical segregation then we may as well just stir tea leaves and dance around the fire instead to foretell the future.
Modelling is a branch of mathematics using probabilities, not scientific method in and of itself. Epidemiology's fundamental concepts of R0 and Re are mathematical representations of disease spread developed so modelling can be done.
Modelling predicted that if we didn't lock down thousands would die.
The UK and USA were the idiotic control groups; allowing the pandemic free rein killed hundreds of thousands needlessly.
Vaccine hesitancy and basic ignorance of science are the biggest obstacles to us having wider freedoms.
Modelling had made innumerable predictions, mostly vastly overrated even when pursuing the non-pharmacetical interventions proposed.
There are countless articles in The Atlantic, The Times etc on this. Or from The International Journal of Forecasting:
"Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures".
As Craig Hall says, it's not scientific method. So why are we basing massive decisions fundamental to society and democracy pretending it is science? And why on earth would we pretend deaths are the only metric?
Talking about lockdown, an interesting new study today. "According to a new study from Brown University: "We find that children born during the pandemic have significantly reduced verbal, motor, and overall cognitive performance compared to children born pre-pandemic," wrote the study's authors. "Results highlight that even in the absence of direct SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 illness, the environmental changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is significantly and negatively affecting infant and child development."
Given the average age of Covid-19 deaths in the UK in 2020 was near the overall average age around 79, this does question the tradeoff on child development, just for one example.
And yes, Roblogic can spout all the ridiculous comparisons he wants. NZ is not unvacvinated USA in winter 2020, but I understand rationality doesn't rule now. Emotional-ladden fear responses are what persuades.
We are highly vaccinated NZ heading into summer 2021 with improved treatments even Herr Bloomfield is praising. Our reward? Orange and Red Lights which are Levels 2-4 by another name.
The PM has explicitly ruled out Green this summer. Then what – declining vaccination immunity come Autumn. Freedom then? No, it'll be too dangerous with winter coming up and variant Omega/Zeta/whatever. Our Vaccine Passports will expire – I don't remember my NZ Passport expiring after 6 months – seems to be more effective than the vaccine.
When freedom is a promise of a state drunk on control and caution and a population whose fear-addled brain has diminished, it will never happen.
And the scary truth is…I don't think people want to be free anymore. I think they want a Chinese control and techno-social credit system (the Linus blanket).
Dude I am with you on the OTT mandates and annoying traffic lights. Being stuck in Auckland lockdown has tested my (already questionable) sanity.
But what Jacinda and Ashley have done right, is listen to the experts. I don't get why people hate science, when it has saved us from a nationwide tragedy.
Where did you get your "magic murder spray" (as claimed @ 5;59 pm) from, James?
Good one, that pilot!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/127160705/extremely-dangerous-and-idiotic-man-arrested-after-allegedly-shining-laser-at-rescue-helicopter
even more important because we can expect rescue helicopter flights to increase once covid arrives.
An interesting new piece of Australian legislation:
This is sound and strong legislation that has gotten bi-partisan support. I'm curious to know if NZ has anything parallel either operating or proposed?
Lordie if only.
It would be a step but it would also be a useful bipartisan proposal for Republicans and Democrats – especially in the Senate.
Sanctions against human rights abuses ??against threatening international peace ??eh ?Hows that gonna work arnt the ausies best mates with america ??
Please take some time to sign the petition to ban mining on conservation land. Multinational OceanaGold is planning to mine the habitat of Archey's frog:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archey%27s_frog
https://action.greens.org.nz/no_new_mines
Please help us let the Govt know that they need to uphold their promises.
Warning – attempt at humour
What is the most common trait of National Party politicians?
Dunning-Kruger
Don't give up the day job!
Keep you friends close and your enemies closer.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/simon-bridges-given-coveted-finance-portfolio-after-stepping-aside-to-let-national-elect-christopher-luxon.html
This could backfire. If Luxon slips up, looks weak, or the polls don’t seriously improve, Simon is poised ready to pounce.
Worked out pretty well for Helen Clark and John Key
Both had more experience and showed little weakness.
Payoff for Simon's withdrawal from the contest, I suspect.
If Luxon pulls them back from the brink of being beat by ACT, Simon will have to hold fire. But at least Luxon gets an initially smooth ride from most of the backstabbers.
With Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows now cooperating with the House committee investigating January 6th, Steve Bannon going to jail for contempt of Congress, and DoJ senior lawyer Jeffrey Clark also held in contempt (but now likely to be more fulsome in cooperation), Trump's complicity in the January 6th insurrection is getting more assured/
Jan. 6 panel recommends Jeffrey Clark be held in contempt, but gives him leeway – Roll Call
Yes fanstastic news for Rachael Madow fans !!!
Yanks finally figure out partisan political psychology is toxic: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/30/why-american-politics-is-so-stuck-and-what-new-research-shows-about-how-to-fix-it-523517
How come James Shaw is allowed to isolate at home, whereas Nanaia Mahuta has to go to a MIQ facility?
Nanaia has young family?
My mate was recently x-rayed and diagnosed with an age-related degenerative spinal condition and told he wouldn't be seen by a specialist.
As he's deteriorated over the past months he's been seen more than a dozen times by GPs at his PHO, prescribed analgesia by the bucket, seen several physios and been sent home from the ED five times.
Today, after weeks of worsening pain has become intolerable and unable to walk or talk, he was given an MRI scan.
My grubby old mate with the heart of gold and the kindest man I've ever known who's been fobbed off and ignored for months because he is a grubby, little old man who smells, has advanced cancers of the lung, spine, neck and brain. I am fucking incandescent.
This is truly shit Joe909 and my heart goes out to your mate. Sadly this is not an uncommon story, either here or overseas. No wonder so many of us don't trust the medical system. I truly believe that the doctors who actually give a shit are in the minority.
This is the side of the health system which is unacceptable and the clinicians who saw your mate need sorting out. This will require energy and take months.
I can tell by what you wrote that you care a lot about your friend and will continue to do so.
After a severe break to my humerus bone last year, I was continually fobbed off until a local (private) doctor actually looked at my x-rays and got in touch with the right people. They don't even have time to investigate. NZ's chronically underfunded, unmaintained health system is just a temporary lifestyle choice for the medical profession, they make tons more money elsewhere
So sad your old mate was underserved by medics – will be great if lessons are learned, but there's likely more age, class and ethnicity-related rationing of healthcare to come
I predict that the apparent minority of "doctors who actually give a shit" will continue to shrink, as those prepared to undertake the challenging and costly medical training required to evaluate and treat patients will increasingly also need the 'mental toughness' to handle criticism for inevitable mistakes.
Sorry to hear that Joe 909. Bloody sad. We do need more MIR machines and operators, and less rationing. Be there for your mate. I lost a friend in a similar fashion 20 years ago. Thinking of you both.
Hold them to account.
https://www.hdc.org.nz/making-a-complaint/
A pretty typical story joe and your anger is heard loud and clear. Our medical system has become a curate's egg – good in parts.
I actually feel rather sorry for many of the ordinary nurses and clinicians working within the system – it devalues them in many ways, some obvious and other less so. It sure as hell isn't easy working in a large hospital and I've nothing but respect for those who do their honest best at serving their patients.
Yet like Rosemary I'm think a lot of people have lost much faith in the profession as a whole and COVID has only made matters worse in my view.
Can someone please reboot Auckland Council? It appears to be malfunctioning.
Failing to hold AT to Climate Change commitments – instead we get more roads, bugger all for alternate modes.
Making the housing crisis into a disaster, doing the usual Nimby shit
Can't be bothered protecting trees
https://twitter.com/fundypost/status/1466249650596241411?s=20
Fuck me Auckland lost another massive Pohutakawa today outside the church on Kyhber Pass…
Council talks about the need to green the city millions to buy and plant mature trees.
How bout we stop cutting them down… bloody sad.
Ironic
https://twitter.com/phil_goff/status/1465811663102177282?s=20
Goff, Brown, Banks, Hubbard …… a pox on the lot of them.