Open mike 03/10/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 3rd, 2022 - 90 comments
Categories: open mike - Tags:


Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

90 comments on “Open mike 03/10/2022 ”

  • Comments are now closed

    • mikesh 2.1
      3 October 2022 at 2:12 pm

      Our ghosts will be happy to hear that. They'd not want to be made homeless and have to find new haunts.

  3. Ad 3
    3 October 2022 at 6:40 am

    Very cool to see journalists still going back to Orwell to remind us that "The present political chaos is connected with the decay of language." (Orwell, 1941)

    Who's a "conservative"? Not these folks — the word has become meaningless | Salon.com

    • Descendant Of Smith 3.1
      3 October 2022 at 9:23 am

      The whole article starts off on the wrong premise by not understanding the difference in the meaning of conservative in the normal sense i.e. resistant to change to the term conservative in the political sense i.e. favouring private enterprise, private ownership, traditional social mores and smaller government.

      Somewhat ironic that an article quoting Orwell's commentary on the use of language would not fundamentally understand that words in English particularly can have multiple meanings.

      The political conservative has never ever been resistant to change – just as long as it is change that favours their conservative outlook.

      The left moves much more slowly ironically unless they are moving to the right as we saw in the 80's. Indeed it is the left that are conservative in the first meaning of the word.

      It would be a much better article if it outlined that the public often don't understand the difference between the two meanings. Something that plays well into the hands of the right – conservative, prudent – the imagery they invoke.

      Liz Truss typifies how quickly they move when wish. John Key's "never waste a crisis", Judith Collin's "double down".

      Conservative they are not.

      • Ad 3.1.1
        3 October 2022 at 9:50 am

        I think what you are pointing towards is the intersection in the word "conservative" between broad left and right, namely: that point at which the world is saved through conservation.

        I don't think the article was trying to get that far.

        The same article transposed onto New Zealand conditions would have to track the splintering language that mirrors the splintering of epistemic trust through COVID, revealing deep and unruly activism. That's somewhat different to the US context.

        • Descendant Of Smith 3.1.1.1
          3 October 2022 at 11:12 am

          Nah just the difference between the noun and the adjective.

          The noun belongs to the right.
          The adjective belongs to the left.

          It is why despite regular stitching of governments we had continuously moved right since the mid-80's and people can't conceive of a return eg implementing WEAG recommendations or indeed believing they have done the job eg Grant Roberson believing he has reversed benefit damage done by Ruth Richardson.

          • Ad 3.1.1.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 11:42 am

            Well that lovely binary is just not true in practise here, and betrays a kind of unjustified woolly righteousness.

            Otherwise we'd see for example no national parks formed under National, or Treaty agreements, or cycleways, or major constitutional advancement, or Predator Free efforts, or big public transport facilities, whereas in practise most of them are initiated under National and by National.

            In fact it's the current government that is the first for a while to initiate no new national parks. And the only big PT investment Labour-Greens can claim is the North Shore Busway extension.

      • mikesh 3.1.2
        3 October 2022 at 2:40 pm

        If we cannot see the future, or if we cannot be sure of how a particular policy will turn out, then the true conservative is a person who prefers to err on the side of caution. However the modern political conservative tends to support privilege.

        In America, the term neo-conservative refers to one who believes that because America is strong enough, militarily, to do whatever it likes, she should in fact act accordingly if it's in her interests to do so.

  4. weka 4
    3 October 2022 at 9:20 am

    This is where we are now. Gender Identity ideology is shifting cultural norms so that rape culture is being sanctioned. Women said no to mixed sex toilets because we know what we are talking about. Capitalism lapped up GI ideology because it’s cheaper to have mixed sex toilets than single sex ones. People working in schools are either believing in GI ideology or they’re too scared to oppose it out of fear for their jobs or losing friends.

    Every day there are multiple examples of this in my twitter feed. No Debate means the general public don’t know how far it’s gone, although awareness and MSM coverage is improving.

    GI ideology is regressive, harms all people and society, but women and girls the most.

    Trans people have the same human rights as everyone else in liberal countries and these should be upheld. Removing the rights of women and girls is not an acceptable way to do that.

    https://twitter.com/ladybellatrix1/status/1576653541435142144

    • Ad 4.1
      3 October 2022 at 9:52 am

      I'd say that's less at the foot of GI and more at the super-commercialisation of amateur porn into sites that target early teenage development.

      • Molly 4.1.1
        3 October 2022 at 10:38 am

        … aided by the wanton abandonment of safeguarding and single-sex spaces, giving rise to increased opportunity.

        (Note: Abusive behaviour not limited to teenagers/schools)

        • weka 4.1.1.1
          3 October 2022 at 10:47 am

          I wonder if lots of men don't understand quite how big a deal this is for women.

          If people aren't on twitter or reading RW media, they probably don't know the extent or the analysis.

          https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11270459/Feminist-campaigners-demand-unisex-changing-rooms-scrapped-amid-reports-traumatic-encounters.html

          • Sabine 4.1.1.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 4:31 pm

            No need to wonder,

            Many many people the world over really don't see girls or women as more then a comfort person. Born to provide comforts, sexual comforts, nice clean house comforts, cooked foods and sandwiches comfort, and for those that still have use for it – b irthing body comforts. that is it. The only difference in the future between the taliban / religious enforces in the west and else where is that were they like to cover their comfort providers under a bedsheet we would have them run around naked or barey dressed. The mindset is the same.

            The answer still stands, those not born into a male body are they even human?

      • weka 4.1.2
        3 October 2022 at 10:42 am

        porn teaches the young men, liberal adoption of GI ideology (eg mixed sex toilets) gives them easier access. It's not rocket science. This is a well known phenomena that appears to be increasing because men are now allowed in spaces that were previously female only. Google (or better yet, twitter search) for Primark to see how this is playing out in department store and other changing rooms.

        At what point did liberals stop understanding that predatory men will take advantage of situations? Some liberals don't care because the needs of some TW to access female spaces is more important than protecting women and girls. But I don't think that's most liberals, so it's mindboggling what the thinking is.

        But what's newly alarming is the mix of that and the school's response: it's not such a big deal because she had her underwear on. This is straight out of rape culture minimalisation that we've been fighting for decades, and now liberals are saying it's not a big deal 🚩 Liberals are saying this.

        It's the mix of those three things – porn, GI ideology, liberal's dropping boundaries that is dangerous.

        GI ideology has strong connections with porn of course, via sex/kink positivity and 'sex work is work' positions, as well as queer theory's ideas around transgression/good, boundaries/bad. Lots of TW doing porn, lots of AGPs doing fetishes, and increasingly in public. I doubt that most people are aware of the very fast shift in cultural mores that is happening.

        • roy cartland 4.1.2.1
          3 October 2022 at 11:46 am

          Your comment above re capitalism bears repeating, and I think goes further than just having cheaper toilets. GI as a kind of religion (i.e., whatever I thinks is true is the truth) plays right into the hands of the masters of communication, the tech lords. There is a continual push to get us all online even more, into their crappy "metaverses", where they can extract even more data and money from us.

          "Come to us, you can be whatever you want and no one can tell you, or even THINK you, any different. If the meat-world rejects you, there's always room for you in the meta. Just… enter you details…" Ugh.

          • weka 4.1.2.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 12:50 pm

            totally agree. The push to disembodiment and the ways to make money from this are glaring. Some on the left look forward to transhumanism 🙁

            writing these comments today I wanted to draw a mind map of all the interrelated things, and yes techbro and techlords are intricately part of this.

        • RedLogix 4.1.2.2
          3 October 2022 at 12:30 pm

          It was feminists who insisted for decades there was little difference between the sexes and women could do anything that men could do. More than this that male-only spaces and roles had to be dismantled.

          Now the tables are turned – you don't like it.

          • weka 4.1.2.2.1
            3 October 2022 at 12:47 pm

            this is how it played out in your head.

            meanwhile,

            1. some feminists fought for equal rights by arguing that women can do the same jobs as men, and this is true by and large. It was in an era where women were actively locked out of many jobs and thus from taking full part in society, and it made sense at the time to use this tactic. There have always been feminists who argued that men and women are different.
            2. men's clubs were targeted as discriminatory because they were bastions of male power where the old boy's network functioned. Again, women were prevented from taking full part in society because of this arrangement. This is basic power relations 101. I have no problems with men's space generally, nor do many other feminists as evidenced by the rise of men's sheds. Noticeably men's sheds don't generally exclude women where they are community facility. Because we're no longer living in the 60s and 70s with a bunch of men in charge who thought there was something wrong with sharing power with women. Men are free to organise their own spaces, and afaik this right is protected under legislation in both the UK and NZ (for now at least, it won't survive if gender ideology trumps sex entirely).
            3. feminists have been pushing back against transfeminine male transgression into women's space for decades. I first became aware of it in the 90s, but it was going on a lot longer than that. You are woefully uninformed, but I see quite happy to still bring out your antipathy towards feminism when it suits you. Nothing new about that either.
            • RedLogix 4.1.2.2.1.1
              3 October 2022 at 2:27 pm

              And I was pointing out years ago that if the boot was on the other foot – that if you reversed the sexes in most feminist argument – you would not like it.

              And so it came to pass. I am sorry for that.

              • Sabine …
                3 October 2022 at 4:38 pm

                there might be a few thousand 'feminists' the rest of us are just women who do not want men in female prisons, female changing rooms, female awards, and so one.

                most of us women abhor the idea to castrate a boy in order to have him live in the correct body of a 'female' because he likes sparkles, music, and spinny the dress.

                most of us women abhor the idea to sterilize girls, have their teets yeeted by some demented surgeon for good money in the name of fucking kindness.

                and frankly RL this is the laziest comment you could make.

                Women are not feminists. Some women are. Some men pretend to be. Most of us women really just wanted to keep our jobs once we got pregnant, really just wanted to not need the permission of the hubby to by something and have some money in the bank account, the right to sign a lease – residential or commercial without Daddies signature or that of the hubby, or gasp even buy a house on our own.

                As you will remember if you actually care, non of these things were a given, and we now have young girls suffering for it.

                You are laughing at women, because some 'feminists' such as Deborah Russel, Mme KereKere and even the good leader of teh Labour Party the Person Jacinda Ardern are pushing this through law into our schools and public spaces here.

                Your contempt for women and girls seems to be endless.

                • RedLogix …
                  3 October 2022 at 6:06 pm

                  You seem to have forgotten that I am one of the relatively few left wing males on this site to have openly and full-heartedly supported your position from the outset.

                  If you want to interpret this as contempt – that's entirely on you.

                  • Muttonbird …
                    3 October 2022 at 8:51 pm

                    You seem to have forgotten that I am one of the relatively few left wing males on this site to have openly and full-heartedly supported your position from the outset.

                    :lol: You can't be serious.

                    • swordfish …
                      4 October 2022 at 12:29 am

                      .

                      Once again your crude dogmatic insularity confuses the:

                      (1) scapegoating, elite self-interest, blatant discriminatory policies, authoritarianism & cultural extremism of the Upper-Middle Woke Vanity Project

                      with

                      (2) genuine Social Democratic principles of universalism, egalitarianism, equality under law, individual human rights, democracy, free expression of ideas.

                  • Sabine …
                    4 October 2022 at 11:08 am

                    I do understand that.

                    But again, the comment was lazy.

                    And fwiw, as a person who no longer has defintion that i can refer to when talking about myself, my body, my issues, heck who no longer even has the right to shit and piss in a toilet without male bodies hanging out for shits n giggles on the grounds of 'girl brain' and 'imagination' and 'getting a boner cause i get to wear womans face and the things who no longer have a word to define themselves are not allowed to say shit about it ' i am over that.

                    Seriously, you are one of the better commentators here. Please stop this Rightwing / Left wing bullshit about hte 'femminists'.

                    this affects us because we are removed from law, from text books, from public record so that men can have euphoria boners.

                    So fucking desperatly tired of this bullshit that harms us, our children, our elders. And as a consequence will in the future harm every male that wants to live as a male. Because they are gunning for you too.

                    Heck, we make castrating boys into female clad eunuchs a virtue. Go figure.

                    And fwiw, define 'left'. This is supported by left, right and the middle. Why? Why would that be?

              • weka …
                3 October 2022 at 5:43 pm

                And I was pointing out years ago that if the boot was on the other foot – that if you reversed the sexes in most feminist argument – you would not like it.

                Only because you don't understand the argument.

                But let's test it and see. I already gave the example of men's clubs. What's the reverse? There isn't one, because women don't have an old boys network that they exclude men from. You've been running these arguments for years, but you still don't have an actual argument.

                • RedLogix …
                  3 October 2022 at 6:07 pm

                  There isn't one, because women don't have an old boys network that they exclude men from.

                  Yes you do. Women everywhere have much larger, and often rather powerful, social networks than most men.

                  • weka …
                    3 October 2022 at 6:10 pm

                    of course we have social networks, that's not what I said. I also don't think women are powerless.

                    But you said "if you reversed the sexes in most feminist argument" that I wouldn't like it. Yet you still haven't made an argument or presented any evidence. It's just this vague assertion based on not understanding feminist analysis of power and how it functions in our societies.

          • Molly 4.1.2.2.2
            3 October 2022 at 1:27 pm

            Blaming "feminists" in the way you have, assumes that all who label themselves as feminists have the same perspective. As you know, that is demonstrably not true. There are many issues where those who call themselves feminists vehemently disagree.

            weka, adequately addresses the issues regarding access to places where power and authority resided, rather than an all-out infringement on men's ability to create their own single-sex spaces.

            If you can put those assertions you list aside for the moment, do you honestly not see any issues with the dismantling of safeguarding processes and boundaries for single-sex spaces?

  5. Descendant Of Smith 5
    3 October 2022 at 9:51 am

    Why would be have gaps under doors in gender neutral toilets? I have no problem having gender neutral toilets but the design has to be suitable. I also think there should always be separate same sex toilets as well – particularly in schools.

    Female, male, disabled and gender neutral should be the modern standard. If you dispense with the first two then each stall should be independent with its own hand-basin etc e.g. similar to a public toilet. Just slapping a new sign on existing facilities is poor decision making and reminds me of the early days of slapping signs on standard toilets and calling them the disabled toilet even though you couldn't turn a wheelchair around to get out. We are a bit more mature now about disabled facilities.

    How much of the gap under the door is classist e.g. the poorer the community the more likely / bigger the gap?

    The schools response sucks. Far too many women develop anxiety over time from this sort of behaviour.

    What country is this in – it would not be usual for an 11 year old to be starting secondary school in NZ?

    • RosieLee 5.1
      3 October 2022 at 10:01 am

      Many secondary schools are years 7 to 13.

      • mpledger 5.1.1
        3 October 2022 at 10:59 am

        It sounds like England – 11 years olds start secondary school and they return to school after the summer break in September.

    • weka 5.2
      3 October 2022 at 11:00 am

      5

      3 October 2022 at 9:51 am (Edit)

      Why would be have gaps under doors in gender neutral toilets?

      Because it's cheaper. Neoliberal capitalism loves gender ideology for a reason.

      I have no problem having gender neutral toilets but the design has to be suitable. I also think there should always be separate same sex toilets as well – particularly in schools.

      are you suggesting that schools build mixed sex toilets alongside the single sex ones?

      What's happening in the UK is that mixed sex toilets are increasingly replacing single sex ones. And guess what, they're converting women's toilets into mixed sex and keeping men's toilets.

      Female, male, disabled and gender neutral should be the modern standard. If you dispense with the first two then each stall should be independent with its own hand-basin etc e.g. similar to a public toilet. Just slapping a new sign on existing facilities is poor decision making and reminds me of the early days of slapping signs on standard toilets and calling them the disabled toilet even though you couldn't turn a wheelchair around to get out. We are a bit more mature now about disabled facilities.

      I've seen pictures of mixed sex toilets in the UK in a school where the area outside the toilet cubicle is open to the main hall. This is a facility designed by people absolutely clueless about women's needs.

      I values women's space highly, and single sex toilets for females give women the opportunity to connect without being around men. I don't want to see that lost because a very small % of the school are trans. We can address their needs without removing women's.

      How much of the gap under the door is classist e.g. the poorer the community the more likely / bigger the gap?

      bloody good poin.

      The schools response sucks. Far too many women develop anxiety over time from this sort of behaviour.

      Indeed. Some women/girls stay home when they have their periods. Some hold on and don't go to the toilet. This was the argument for making toilets cross sex or mixed sex, that trans people were having medical problems from holding on. It's an indictment of how much sexism and misogyny we still have that society didn't listen to women who said if you make toilets mixed sex the same thing will happen to women.

      See my link above from the Mail.

      What country is this in – it would not be usual for an 11 year old to be starting secondary school in NZ?

      UK. But it's normal here for intermediate and high school to be in the same building. What we don't know about NZ is if the push for mixed sex facilities is replacing women's/girls' toilets or being provided alongside.

      • Belladonna 5.2.1
        3 October 2022 at 11:06 am

        "mixed sex facilities is replacing women's/girls' toilets or being provided alongside."

        This is a 'reckon', but I highly doubt that there will be any new toilets built/installed – it's a major cost, and schools will be prioritizing other building projects.

        It's a heck of a lot cheaper (in $$$ terms) to just change the signage.

        • weka 5.2.1.1
          3 October 2022 at 11:15 am

          this would be my guess too, although I suspect (and hope) only some of the girls' toilets will be changed.

          What will happen in new school builds is another matter.

          • Belladonna 5.2.1.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 11:47 am

            I would guess that unisex toilets will be mandated – and schools will be able to opt for single sex ones in addition – if they choose.

      • Molly 5.2.2
        3 October 2022 at 11:06 am

        Agree, weka.

        This casual handwaving away of issues of privacy, dignity and safety FOR no considered reason is breath-taking in it's stupidity.

        No thought at all given to the many benefits of single-sex spaces:

        https://fs.blog/chestertons-fence/

        There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”

      • Descendant Of Smith 5.2.3
        3 October 2022 at 11:26 am

        I'm aware of at least one person advising schools saying alongside. It took ages for this to sink in for disabled toilets. What I would not like to see is disabled toilets suggested as the alternative – not only for their space but also to avoid the notion of treating gender issues as a disability. Already seen that happen in workplaces – "just used the disabled toilet".

        "if you make toilets mixed sex the same thing will happen to women."

        Pretty obvious.

        I suspect/know schools need much better guidance from above as well as specific funding to address. Individual boards will just produce a wide variation and religious schools are unsurprisingly resistant as are some individual principals.

        • weka 5.2.3.1
          3 October 2022 at 12:54 pm

          agree about the need for caution around disability toilets. Bizarre that that took so long to establish.

          Don't know about how sensible NZ schools will be. There are others with a better sense of what is happening than me (mostly I know them on twitter).

      • Ad 5.2.4
        3 October 2022 at 11:35 am

        Plenty of gender neutral toilets on our coastline and parks in the Auckland region are just solid concrete block, which just feels better.

        • weka 5.2.4.1
          3 October 2022 at 11:42 am

          Yes, we have a lot of mixed sex toilets in NZ eg in small cafes where there is only one toilet. But they didn't replace women's toilets generally. In this conversation we are talking about where women and girls need single sex toilets and those are being removed. You may feel better, but many women and girls don't. This about politics.

    • Molly 5.3
      3 October 2022 at 11:00 am

      IIRC, gaps are part of H&S design, so access to a distressed/self harming child is possible.

      Happy to be corrected here.

    • Belladonna 5.4
      3 October 2022 at 11:01 am

      Actually, filming someone in the school toilets, regardless of gender, should be an automatic suspension offence. As should sharing that film on social medial. And (depending on the student's history) might result in expulsion/exclusion (whatever the latest buzz word is).

      It's illegal (you have a presumption of privacy in a toilet cubicle) – and there are multiple cases of adult offenders being convicted for similar offences.

      The school's response is negligent.

      The suspension should continue until there is a Board of Trustees hearing into why the student should be allowed to return to the school, and what protections will be put in place to prevent re-offending.

      • weka 5.4.1
        3 October 2022 at 11:16 am

        and the police should be called.

        It's possible all those things did happen, and the school still gave the message to the girl that it wasn't such a big deal because she had her undies up.

    • Sabine 5.5
      3 October 2022 at 4:40 pm

      Mercer Gas Station and malls now has a 'gender neutral' toilets.

      Men

      Disabled

      Gender Neutral

      the “Womens” is now the neutral toilet. There is no more ” Womens” left. And please don’t ask for pictures, because i actually have taken them and will happily post them here.

      So men can use the Mens, the mixed sex and the disabled toilet. Women well who gives a flying fuck?

      All that was changed was the sign on the door. The stalls are open to the top and bottom and a tall man can have a good view over the stalls if they cared. Any one can put a camera under your toilet.

      That is here in NZ. Just another country in which we pretend that anyone and their dog and pony show is a women/girl by stating so.

  6. Belladonna 6
    3 October 2022 at 10:54 am

    It seems as though the online fraudsters are just getting more and more sophisticated. And the banking response is lagging well behind.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/union-boss-mike-treens-online-bank-accounts-allegedly-hacked-by-fraudsters-13k-drained/AFONM6EWADUV3XKKK6PXC42YCU/?c_id=1&objectid=12555653&ref=rss

    I'd like to see legislation introduced which requires banks to refund the money, unless they can prove that the account holder has been negligent (freely sharing passwords) or has actively chosen to transfer the money (it's not the bank's fault if you choose to send money to a 'Nigerian prince', even after being warned).

    It seems as though the banks are also being hoist by their own petard of online-only services. In the 'old' days, if I wanted to change anything about my account (name, contact details, address, etc.) – I would need to physically go into a branch and produce ID. Now, all I need to do is send the details via an app. Opening up a giant hole in their security and fraud-prevention operations (once they have your account details & password – through phishing or other methods (phone cloning it looks like, here) – it's trivial for a fraudster to change the contact details – and you'll never know)

    When I think about the hoops I have to go through in order to transfer money overseas – while these fraudsters happily waltz through the banks' security systems unimpeded…..

    As more and more services become online-only – we should, rightly, be concerned over the security of those online systems – and their ability to protect our online identity (and, in this case, cash)

  7. tsmithfield 7
    3 October 2022 at 11:22 am

    Ukraine is launching a rapid counter-offensive in the Kherson Oblast down the banks of the Dnipro at the moment causing a lot of very worried Russians.

    The pace things are going, there is a high risk that a lot of Russians could be surrounded, and will find it very difficult to withdraw across the Dnipro.

    Things rapidly falling apart for Putin at the moment.

    • Bearded Git 7.1
      3 October 2022 at 11:45 am

      Putin can't afford to lose…he will throw everything at this.

      • mikesh 7.1.1
        3 October 2022 at 2:52 pm

        The more successful the Ukrainians become, the more likely it will be that the Russians will resort to nuclear weapons. It would be in Europe’s interests to bring the parties to the peace table, However Russia won’t voluntarily give up the territories it has won and Ukraine won’t stop fighting until it has regained those territories.

        Here come the mushroom clouds!

        • tsmithfield 7.1.1.1
          3 October 2022 at 5:01 pm

          I don't think the Russians will bother with tactical nukes. Most military opinion I have seen doesn't think they are very good for the job there. And the NATO has made it very clear to them that there will be specific non-nuclear but very destructive action they will take if Russia goes down that path.

          The biggest risk is if Putin goes completely off the wall and decides to launch nukes at the rest of the world because he sees military defeat in Ukraine as on the same level as nukes being launched at Russia.

          • joe90 7.1.1.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 6:27 pm

            British historian Lawrence Freedman;

            Conclusion

            There is no evidence for now that weapons are being moved into position or being prepared for such strikes. US intelligence, which has been extraordinarily precise so far can be expected to pick up any details (or at least the Russian would need to assume that). No effort has been made to explain to the Russian public why such strikes might be necessary. After all Putin still insists that this is a limited operation and has refused to put the country on a war footing. As we have seen Russian figures talk garrulously about scenarios for nuclear use against NATO countries but not Ukraine. We can also assume that neither of Putin’s recent interlocutors – Xi and Modi – would be enthused. This is a scenario largely generated in the West trying to anticipate contingencies that have yet to be reached.

            […]

            Postscript

            The day after this post was published, Putin made a speech in which he announced military mobilisation. His description of the origins of the course of the war can be left to another day. It is an extension of the delusional analysis which he has been promoting since the start of this disastrous war. The mobilisation announced will, I suspect, aggravate rather than solve the problems faced by Russian forces at the front. I will consider these in my next post. His main statement on nuclear weapons, however, is wholly in line, with my analysis.

            https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear

            https://twitter.com/LawDavF

    • Poission 7.2
      3 October 2022 at 11:46 am

      The Russian offensive Operation Iceblock continues,as does the cost of poor economic policy in Europe.

      https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1576253694214959104?cxt=HHwWgMCj-cWY_d8rAAAA

      It will be somewhat offset due to the demand decreasing for cooked food,as food will a distant memory as agriculture policy bites in the Netherlands.

      https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/1575755246076399616?cxt=HHwWgMC89YXDmt4rAAAA

      .

      • Ad 7.2.1
        3 October 2022 at 1:31 pm

        The German Greens must have strong confidence in winter energy supplies to now fully abandon nuclear.

        I don't think EU energy policy could reasonably have predicted Russia fully shutting all gas access, even with Ukraine post-2014.

        If EU can get through this winter they can get through anything.

        If.

        • Poission 7.2.1.1
          3 October 2022 at 2:37 pm

          At present the Rhetoric worked until the cold weather came then the shortages in reality became obvious,as the IEA shows.

          https://twitter.com/fbirol/status/1576221639494492160

          The German Energiewende was built on ideology not decarbonisation,replacement of Nuclear with Russian Gas,which would of allowed reduction of coal generation.

          Grid replacement from the north for wind (offshore) which needs 12256km of new grid line has only completed over the last 6 years 16% with another 6 % permitted ( German planning can take 10yrs) meaning only half of its target can be reached in 2035.

          Harbeck the German minister says now the two reactors will be needed this and next year,remembering that the storage this year was mostly by Russian gas.

          No plan b here,as price caps on gas imports will mean no gas imports,so subsidy is the option with around 200b euro so far,which is on borrowed debt now with a trade imbalance.

          • Ad 7.2.1.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 2:44 pm

            You always provide excellent links thankyou.

          • Bearded Git 7.2.1.1.2
            3 October 2022 at 3:16 pm

            Great info Poission. Europe is pretty much in chaos in terms of energy.

          • RedLogix 7.2.1.1.3
            3 October 2022 at 8:06 pm

            I recall reading somewhere that while converting from coal to natural gas is a good thing, and responsible for much of the developed world cutting back on their carbon intensity over the past two decades – there was always one nasty gotcha that few people talked about – fugitive emissions.

            The numbers I saw suggested that you only needed gas leaks in the order of 2 -3% of total use for the methane contribution to CC to exceed the CO2 gains from the coal use reduction. And considering that the Nord Stream sabotage is probably the largest every man-made methane release ever …

            • Poission 7.2.1.1.3.1
              3 October 2022 at 8:33 pm

              Using gas instead of coal,reduced emissions by being more efficient,fewer secondary emissions such SO2,etc,balanced by fugitive emissions,flaring and underestimation.

              The IEA data and satellite measurement show that FF methane emissions are 70% greater then national government reporting and growing.

              https://www.iea.org/news/methane-emissions-from-the-energy-sector-are-70-higher-than-official-figures

              Also the emissions from flaring are also 5x greater then certification efficiency certification shows.( flaring thought to be a cheaper method,then capping or short term storage.

              https://twitter.com/EDFEnergyEX/status/1576308533066448898

              The fix here can be both cheap and profitable ,the wasted gas being around the annual needs of Europe.The other part of the problem is that the total global load of CH4 changes ie the amount of biogenic production reduces to meet the excess loads identified in the global accounts.

        • tsmithfield 7.2.1.2
          3 October 2022 at 2:47 pm

          That is really just virtue signaling on a national scale.

          The reason being that Germany imports electricity from France. And France generates 70% of its electricity from nuclear power.

          So, what the Germans are doing is all about the feelz more than anything else.

          • tsmithfield 7.2.1.2.1
            3 October 2022 at 2:50 pm

            The other thing is, that, due to Russia cutting the gas supply, Germany is now turning back on coal generation. From an emissions perspective, nuclear would have been better.

            • Binders full of Women 7.2.1.2.1.1
              3 October 2022 at 7:04 pm

              Also from a health perspective. More people die EVERY day from coal powered stations than have EVER died in 'N word' accidents. Sigh.

          • Bearded Git 7.2.1.2.2
            3 October 2022 at 3:18 pm

            As I have commented several times on TS, both solar and wind power are now cheaper than nuclear power.

            • tsmithfield 7.2.1.2.2.1
              3 October 2022 at 4:42 pm

              In the case of solar, that depends where you are. In Germany, and similar parts of Europe, it isn't very good due to less sunlight, though Italy and France are OK, as is most of New Zealand. Especially good in Australia for obvious reasons.

              • Bearded Git …
                4 October 2022 at 11:53 am

                Solar works at 20-30% efficiency even in cloudy conditions. The technology is getting better rapidly.

                Nuclear proponents always lie massively about construction costs and decomissioning costs which makes nuclear power far more expensive than the figures often quoted.

        • Sabine 7.2.1.3
          3 October 2022 at 4:49 pm

          Rest assured, like everywhere else, the empty suits in the German Green Party, the SPD and the FDP, will have a warm house, good food and no hardship. That is for their constituency that they have no care about.

          But, i am sure the German Green will feel very green, so green, deepest green, whilst they sit warm, munching on a imported vegan strudel of sorts telling the plebs that all of this is Putins fault for not just giving the west Russias resources for free and on demand. How dare the pesky Russians pretend that they are a sovereign nation and not a supplier to Capitalism Inc.

          Anyone not predicting that Russia has Europe by the balls is dumb at best and malevolent at worst and should not be anywhere in risk assessment and government. Btw, Donald Trump of all people warned them. Go figure.

  8. Scud 8
    3 October 2022 at 2:03 pm

    just nicked this from defencetalk.com

    Looks like there is finally movement on the Northland Drydock, better late than never I suppose.

    With the 2 new Interlslander Ferries on order, the Pirates (RNZN) new Fleet Support Ship & the Landing Support Ship can't use the existing facilities in Auckland.

    Plus the Planned the Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel which is going to be a biggie, the new Landing Ships & Frigate/ OPV Replacements.

    The planning process for this, probably should've started already given the short to long economic development to Northland. Especially if KiwiRail pull their finger out of their freckle & build the branch line to Northport, which might see container traffic move from Auckland etc?

    My biggest concern is atm, will the Greens shit can this project given its Anti Defence Stance incl Maintenance & Manufacturing?

    Then we have National's Tax Cuts & it's stance against building critical Infrastructure apart from roads & cutting Public Services like Defence etc.

    https://www.defencetalk.com/military/forums/t/nzdf-general-discussion-thread.6137/post-412635

    • Ad 8.1
      3 October 2022 at 2:39 pm

      Very interesting point about the new ferry craft not being able to use Calliope, since they are in sea trials and work on the port upgrades for Wellington and Picton is under active negotiation.

      • Scud 8.1.1
        3 October 2022 at 3:59 pm

        The two new Interlslander Ferries are 50% bigger, so even if the NZ MoD/ RNZN got all the approvals to upgrade Devonport & the Drydock.

        It was going to be a very tight fit, so probably going for a new greenfield site like Northport would be a better option long term.

        Given that the NZ MoD/RNZN no longer owns the Married Quarters around the Devonport Area and the planned new Fleet means the Navy would have to eventually move out of Auckland sooner or later.

        The now cancelled Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel was almost as big ie length & if not more beamer (width of the ship) as the current in service Frigates. And this due to the changing environmental conditions down in the Southern Ocean due to CC.

        As the current in service OPV's are no longer fit for purpose to go down Sth & L421 the Landing Support Ship, they've got to pick the right time to supply Campbell Is given the design limitations & CC in the Southern Ocean nowadays.

        The Pirates are going to need bigger ships in coming the decade weather the public, treasury & politicians like it or not.

        • Belladonna 8.1.1.1
          3 October 2022 at 6:48 pm

          "The two new Interlslander Ferries are 50% bigger, so even if the NZ MoD/ RNZN got all the approvals to upgrade Devonport & the Drydock."

          A big *if* – the Devonportugese are very, very NIMBY when it comes to infrastructure development. I'm sure the Navy would have been geared up for multiple appeals to the Environment court.

          An alternative site (well outside of Auckland's built-up area) looks like a much quicker option.

          • Scud 8.1.1.1.1
            3 October 2022 at 7:32 pm

            Ron Mark, had the NZ MoD & RNZN Scoping for possible future Base for the the Pirates from Northport, to staying in the Auckland Area, the Sounds & Port Chalmers for the Southern Ocean Patrol Vessels.

            But it all went quite very quickly after last election for some unknown reason, probably Covid19 Related more likely & possible cost as well?

            The Big issue with Devonport is not so that the NZ MoD/ RNZN doesn't owned much land around the Base these days. But a lack of flat land around the existing drydock area & the Drydock being listed a Grade 1 Heritage Site.

            As you said, if they got all the approvals, the Heritage Listed Site that being the Drydock Area would've been a major show stopper.

            The NZ MoD & RNZN would've literally had to destroy the existing facilities & therefore leaving the Navy the nowhere to go to undertake minor refit or major refits while reconstruction was taking place.

            I think one of the many dumbest decisions ever taken place during the great leap backwards in the 80's & 90's was when the Railways/ Interlslander Services were told to offloaded it's floating dock in Wellington.

            Which has left NZ's heavy Ship repair in a perilous state since then & having to rely on the good services of the NZ MoD, Babcock International who managed the the Drydock on behalf of RNZN & RNZN itself.

            • Belladonna 8.1.1.1.1.1
              3 October 2022 at 7:53 pm

              And all those $5Million plus home owners don't actually want a nasty drydock area messing up their sea-views and creating noise pollution by actually working. And they have very deep pockets when it comes to Enviro court appeals (as well as a conviction that, if they can just delay long enough, the government will give up and go away).

              A sufficiently tough government could push it through – but my pick is that they'd choose to use the political capital elsewhere.

              The problem is that you either have to locate facilities in an existing sea-port (with all of the associated NIMBY issues), or you build a new one (with all of the associated environmental degradation issues).

              In Auckland, I do wonder about Kauri Point. Existing Defence land (with a massive unbuilt-up area because of ammo storage.
              Definitely accessible by ocean-going and navy ships (both ammo loading, and Chelsea tankers).
              Of course, because it's un-built-on – there would be outcries about 'destroying' the natural heritage…..

              No, I'm not suggesting co-locating the drydock with ammo storage. But you could certainly look at ammo storage elsewhere….[I'm tempted to say in the heart of Devonport, but will refrain]

              • Scud …
                3 October 2022 at 9:23 pm

                They could store the bang in the old underground fuel bunkers that NIMBY's got closed down at Devonport which would be a bad thing btw😂

                If & when Kauri Pt is closed down? I hope it's turned into a urban national park like Charles Darwin here in Darwin which btw was the old Bomb/ Ammo dump for Nth Oz.

    • Ad 8.2
      3 October 2022 at 3:59 pm

      Hmmm.

      Word from my bid team is: "Not in my lifetime."

      It'll fall between Kiwirail and NZDF, so it just falls.

      • Scud 8.2.1
        3 October 2022 at 4:15 pm

        Yes, it does have Sir Humphrey's feel to it😂

        Mind you this entire NZ parliamentary term feels & looks like Yes Minister.

  9. roblogic 9
    3 October 2022 at 8:53 pm

    This is why I have unfollowed a few of the Left people on twitter, they are just relentlessly hating on Labour with no perspective on where we came from. The perfect is too often the enemy of the good.

    It's like nothing is ever good enough until we have a full on socialist purge.

The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.