Open mike 06/10/2023
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6:00 am, October 6th, 2023 - 38 comments
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- This is bad news
The speech yesterday by Treasury’s Chief Economic Advisor warning that the books are in worse shape than forecasted looks like it’s part of a softening-up process for either more cuts or a longer wait to get back into surplus. The speech was a highly unusual public preview of Treasury’s Half-Yearly ...56 minutes ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
Open access notables Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances: Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane ...10 hours ago - Chicken Kiev
Chatting in the supermarket this morning, I found I needed to lunge for the chicken drumsticks.Coping mechanisms: who hasn’t felt a greater need for them lately?When it all gets too much, I turn to demonstrating handy butchery hacks.It wasn’t that she’d said anything wrong, our friend, not at all. We ...13 hours ago - The year is 2024 and it’s 1984
This is written in response to the highly significant open letter from a group of economists that was today addressed to Christopher Luxon. The year is 2024, and it’s 1984. The country is reeling from a record Olympic medal gold haul, while the globe grapples with the choice of the ...14 hours ago - The IPCA has failed
Back in 2022, RNZ took an in-depth look at the "Independent" Police Conduct Authority and its handling of killings by police. These are the most serious test of oversight, and you would expect the police's use of lethal force to receive the most severe scrutiny. But despite the police regularly ...18 hours ago - Thursday 21 November 2024
The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...18 hours ago - ‘These budget cuts are counter-productive and make no sense’
I spoke to former Productivity Chair Nana this morning about the letter he and a group of other economists sent to PM Christopher Luxon to urge the Government to urgently suspend cuts to spending and investment for the sake of the economy, struggling businesses and the wellbeing of vulnerable ...20 hours ago - ACT’s Astroturfing & A Co-ordinated Attack on Te Pati Māori
Unity on the Streets / Unity at the TableAfter the Hīkoi, all three right wing Coalition leaders came together to push the idea that the 42,000 - 50,000 + strong Hikoi was somehow less potent and brave, and more illegitimate than the energy and crowd displayed.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 20-November: ...21 hours ago - Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for stabilizing temperatures
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- Young Maori take over
Neither Wellington nor Parliament has ever seen anything like it before. The Police said there were more than 40,000 but however many there were, yesterday’s Hikoi to Parliament was a monumental event. It was almost three times the Foreshore and Seabed martch of 2004 and many,many times bigger than ...2 days ago
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- We need to talk about Kevin
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Like everyone else (everyone who wasn't there, anyway), I've spent the morning watching the hikoi march on Parliament. The pictures are astounding: parliament grounds and the surrounding streets are full, and there are still people backed up along Lambton Quay. The police are estimating 35,000 people, and that's a floor ...3 days ago
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- National’s support base is wobbling
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7 days ago - More lawlessness from National
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- The Haka Represents The Best Of Us
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- Adding up the climate cost
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The Treaty Principles Bill continues to dominate political news, with it passing its first reading in the House. Parliament was briefly suspended and Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke suspended for 24 hours after leading a haka that was joined by opposition MPs and the public in the gallery. Willie ...7 days ago
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The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...1 week ago
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- Voices echo
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- Justice Select Committee opens floor for Treaty Principles submissions
Today, the Justice Select Committee has decided to officially open submissions for the controversial Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
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Today, Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington, with thousands gathering to march in unity against the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...3 days ago
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The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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The panel after the minor party leaders debate was interesting in their analysis, but this reviewer felt the debate itself was unsatisfactory. Unfair, I reckon – nothing obviously wrong with the format. https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/06/felix-desmarais-whos-the-loser-in-minor-parties-debate/
The panel agreed Winston was the loser. Seymour seemed a prat misbehaving, when he wasn't pretending to be a robot. James showed some spine in his style of interaction with the dork. Rawiri came across well.
Significantly, apart from one mention at the beginning, the panel didn't discuss Seymour at all.
Act have peaked at 9% IMO, and with the Natz in steady decline, and Winnie showing he's past his use-by date, there's everything to play for.
As Bomber says, it's not over until the fat blogger sings.
Also significantly, early voting totals are well below 2020. Which might suggest that people have not yet decided how to vote, whereas in 2020 they'd made up their minds early on.
Take heart, lefties, it ain't over until it's over!
Yeah, can't disagree Tony. On the face of it Labour being 10% behind National makes it seem a foregone conclusion but I think you're right to be optimistic.
This electorate is disenchanted with both, so floaters are likely to wash up anywhere and if they watched the minor leaders debate I doubt any undecided would go for the two rightists. That 10% will decide the outcome, I reckon.
Tony so correct
. Apparently Chris Hipkins left isolation to some possible good poll news. I would not be surprised after Lux's mean comment the tax debacle plus Winston threatening Jack Tame, and icing on the cake of Act going down …. All good for the Left. Meantime we are working in step, looking like a Government in waiting.
The 'expert' panel afterwards were pathetic – not once did they discuss the actual content of what any of the leaders said. It was all ridiculous speculation about the impressions the leaders might have made and the motivations they might have had. They are courtiers, gossiping in the side halls of the palace about the powerful, who's in and who's out, calculating how to keep their careers alive. I had a sudden recall of what Walter Ralegh said about the Elizabethan courtiers: “Say to the court, it glows / and shines like rotten wood”.
In any case, Shaw was the only one with consistently sane responses across every topic that was discussed, though his reasonableness might seem dull to some. Waititi was pretty good on most topics, but I thought some of the things he said vaguely implied that he wanted parallel Maori political systems which would be hugely problematic constitutionally and in terms of getting public support. Seymour – a deluded, small state, leave it to the market libertarian straight out of the 1980's and personally just a bit weird. Peters is incoherent and irascible – very little of it makes any sense.
I get your angle on the thing. It was indeed displaying an aversion to substance & focus on style. Check out what these two younger gen folk thought: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/06-10-2023/last-nights-multi-party-debate-was-all-chaos-no-conviction
Re separatism, I've always seen that as feasible in principle. I recall standing up after Mat Rata did his thing at the Trades hall, telling the crowd about MM's justice policy stand in favour of a separate Maori justice system. I'd been running justice policy for the Greens a couple of years by then (early '93). Didn't tell him that, just told everyone I agreed with him. Was the only person to actually do that in the meeting. Wanted him to know at least one pakeha male was willing to go public in support!
Re constitutional status, I'm open-minded. I contributed to Sir Geoffrey's revision right from the start when he appealed for help. Was extremely critical: sent in around 50/60 delineations of exactly what he got wrong. Consequently never got included in his list of helpers – despite giving equal reporting to all his points of merit! But typical Labour turkey, always fos…
I thought three waters would be a topic for discussion. Only mentioned once in passing by Seymour. Not quite the terrible socialist trick it was formerly made out to be so it seems.
Good point! A primary issue of contention mentioned only indirectly. Seems like a lapse in programme design by the producers – shoulda showed up on Tame's list of questions.
I hope that viewers noted that Seymour's first speech was to say that he didn't trust his probable coalition partner.
Luxon must have had his head in his hands most of the debate.
Well, I never saw that coming. Absolutely hammering England last night with a bits and pieces team due to injury. We were missing Williamson, Southee, and Ferguson.
We bowled well to restrict them for 282. Then chased that down in 36 overs for the loss of only one wicket. Conway made 152 no and Ravindra 123 no. If anything qualifies as a complete spanking it has to be this result
Yes, a comprehensive victory. Now – keep it up for the rest of the tournament!
Some recompense for the final that we drew but was stolen from us 4 years ago.
I still haven't got over it.
Henry bowled well.
We Cricket Tragics enjoyed that.
Has helped us through a bad coughing bug.
Looks like Ravindra can bat – at least in the subcontinent. Not sure whether he can bowl yet. Conway is class – a gift from the South African diaspora
Covid-19. Some (conspiracists, political candidates, et al) might like to forget this…
Covid -19 vaccination saved lives
Winston First and his Covid-19
trialsInquiry….would be an insult and a travesty. But we have already seen his response to Science/Facts.Vote Left !
And…Measles again.
Vaccine hesitant? Anti vaxx? Maybe they should think..
On the topic of Covid-19, Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman have been awarded the 2023 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for their discoveries concerning nucleoside base modifications that enabled the development of effective mRNA vaccines against COVID-19.
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2023/press-release/
Truly..Life saving. Thanks for that link.
Don't forget the terrific reception we get with the 5g implants!!!
It would be nice to go to your grave as a Nobel prize winner knowing millions of people who may have never heard of you are alive and going about their business because of your discoveries.
Katalin Karikos story is exceptional, born very poor she was a brilliant student and has apparently been working since university at 18 on mRNA technology, almost 50 years of dedication. A huge personal thank you to her for my friends and family who are alive today .
We all try to do our little bit, whatever it is, to make a difference for others, don’t we?
If anyone missed last night's debate there's a useful summary here: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/minor-parties-face-off-for-tvnz-debate
Good to see James declared the winner by a bunch of non-Greens on that panel!
Luxon's performance review now online: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/performance-review-for-cm-luxon
Tim Murphy is co-editor of Newsroom. I liked his comprehensive description of the diverse role-plays Lux exhibited while out campaigning.
Read that and as expected Tim Murphy's National bias showed through. I knew before I read it given Murphy's Newsroom record. Such a review should have looked at the credibility issue which Luxon is so weak on.
I get the sense that Murphy's enchantment with neoliberal politics has suffered a Damascus moment in recent times.
Damascene?
If you listened to the the political commentators on RNZ's Morning Report just now you would have thought the election had already taken place and National had won.
No mention of National telling lies about its tax policy (its central policy) and getting badly caught out this week. Hardly a mention of the Greens fine polling or of TPM.
I would love the result to turn out Lab 29 Gr 15 TPM 4 just to see their smug faces drop. This is entirely possible.
Hi BG..I link this one? There was some comment about "coalition of chaos" sir Key's (imo plaintive…) call for true blue nat voting…Seymour/Peters belligerence/grudge fest and… other.
sir Key…
lol..so what the fuck does he know ?! Just a creep.
Anyway BG..I too look for the Left win.
Edit….ACT…oh yea, there fall has has been very satisfying. Not anywhere near where they were a month ago…Good : )
Oh and Chris Hipkins..out of Covid isolation. Cmon Chris !
Thanks for putting the link up psyc. I thought when they mentioned "Coalition of Chaos" it was in refence to Lab/Gr/TPM, but whatever. The irony is the real chaos has turned out to be on the Right.
On another issue, I'm not sure that Chris Bishop going on about "you will get a Wealth Tax if Labour gets in" earlier this week is a good tactic given that a study reported last week (I think) said that many people supported this and/or a CGT.
Yes some real chicken coming to roost, there for sure !
And James Shaw…showing what we ..always knew.
Cmon the Left !
RNZ national is the voice of the National Party .
1News is the voice of the National Party
1ZB is the voice of the National Party
That's how it folks, and there are plenty more like it in the media
Earlier this week a sign on my fence was defaced – it now reads “In it for
youme”.Every lie told incurs a debt to the truth, and sooner or later that debt is paid. But National's big donors won’t be paying, and you can take that to the (ANZ) bank.
So, some variations on a theme from the little blue book of National party ‘values’.
Get
New ZealandUnearned Income Back on TrackGet
New ZealandMega Landlords Back on TrackGet
New ZealandForeign Buyers Back on TrackSir seems to be salivating a little more than usual this morning…
And – it's gone.
Great post Drowsy.
Labour losing the campaign because of National tax policy has got to go down as one of the most predictable tragedies of our entire political economy.
Tax cuts of some kind by the NACTs were as predictable as night follows day. Never mind the seeds of discontent that started to sprout and firmly take root in 2020 leading to a more than usual widespread feeling for change. Certainly, Winston Peters tapped that vein well.
How low can Luxo limboooo…..Im sure the Limbo in the link is slightly different but IMO Christopher Luxon is getting limbo-lower: )
Pablo interesting as ever on the nasty in politics
https://www.kiwipolitico.com/2023/10/bully-pulpits-and-the-politics-of-nastiness/
“It is well known that National has been for some time looking to US rightwing spin doctors for campaign guidance and narratives (crime! waste! taxes!), but now Winston First and ACT’s David Seymour have decided to go full US conspiracy theory (Winston: globalists! mandates!) and pseudo-libertarian racist (David: free speech! bureaucrats! Treaty separatists!). The tone of politics in NZ has gotten cruder (see: Chris Bishop, Judith Collins) and more personal (e.g. treatment of Kiri Allen). The corporate media has clearly decided to go full Murdoch in approach (with a few exceptions duly noted) by stirring partisan and racial division and polemics, focusing on personal foibles and conflicts rather than platforms/proposals and going for “gotcha” moments rather than offering dispassion analyses of the policy platforms of the respective parties.”