Well done on stitching up Dunne. Yes, okay, we admit it now, we were skeptical but, really, who’d’ve thought the ole honey-pot ruse would still lure in a long-time, sly as politician? First job for the pair of you when you’ve knocked back the case of champers arriving this morning by courier is to identify other targets for similar ops. What about Mallard?
In terms of mopping up with Dunne, the only sticky point with him is that he knows he didn’t leak so he has to be kept silenced. It seems fairly certain that Carter giving his party extra time to get its paperwork sorted will help but, perhaps, just let him know we have the emails. Maybe dribble out another tidbit or two for Whaleoil early next week to remind him?
The other sticky point is that Key cannot find out his own office was responsible. It certainly suited him at the time after he nearly had us going to war against North Korea, and it took the pressure off any further investigation into the Fletcher / Hollywood / GCSB connections. Looks like we wangled that okay, but the PM’s been getting a little reluctant to keep up the facade lately. The doofus seems to be somewhat distracted by the idea of leaving a legacy or some such bullshit. So, whatever you do, you also stay schtum. Until you know when.
I would have added something about Vance coordinating her operations with Lusk under the guise of her recent puff-piece profile. And even before this debacle, calling Dunne “sly as” seems overly generous – sure he’s been a survivor up till now, but so are; cockroaches, and; Peters.
None of these were illegal and in my time there I never saw, heard of or would have guessed anyone was hacking into voicemails. Those things certainly wouldn’t be condoned, or allowed, by my present employer.
A very different media culture exists in Britain…
I’ve signed kiss-and-tell deals in an interviewee’s home while rivals were leaning on the doorbell, trying to up the bid, yelling numbers. Sources were babysat at secret locations for days – sometimes weeks – on end. More hours than I’d care to count were spent sitting in cars outside houses in case another hack came to knock on the door.
Bewildered ordinary people thrust into the news were hounded into telling their stories with exaggerated tales of what might happen if they didn’t “set the record straight”. …
In New Zealand, the market isn’t so saturated. Tabloids don’t thrive because, in a sparsely populated country, the danger is you’re spilling the secrets of someone whose path you’re likely to cross.
Kiwis also aren’t inspired by the same level of “outrage” that seems to motivate the British and drive their media….
With freedom comes responsibility and a high standard of ethics – the media cannot hold people to account if there is no accountability within the industry.
The News of the World built up a formidable reputation in its 168 years for aggressively pursuing the truth, shining a light on hypocrisy and championing the downtrodden and the victims of injustice. Some of the proudest moments during my time at the paper were giving a voice to someone who was powerless against or exploited by authority.
That crusading journalistic spirit was the backbone of the News of the World – I hope it isn’t the greatest casualty of all.
MS, I have not yet read your blog, but totally agree that both Key demanding Dunne’s resignation and Carter’s ‘lifeline’ have to be looked at simultaneously.
It occurred to me in the middle of the night that in terms of Carter’s decision which seemed uncomprehensible at the time, this could possibly be viewed as an attempt to maintain the status quo in respect of UF’s Confidence and Supply agreement.
That is, if UF’s deregistration was deemed to result in Dunne becoming an Independent MP, the C and S agreement could be null and void thereby allowing Dunne complete freedom in terms of his voting if he was no longer a Minister – particularly as we now know that the night before Carter’s ruling, Key had delivered his ultimatum to Dunne. National need his votes on a number of important pieces of legislation in the next few weeks – including the GCSB Bill when it is reported back from Select Committee in late July. Hence the 8 week grace period?
Carter’s refusal to release the advice he had received to the House, or say who provided the advice, also suggests that the advice may have not come from an independent adviser, for example the Clerk of the House – but possibly from Carter’s National colleagues/masters. Thin ice, I know, but this week could be very interesting.
Lynton Crosby under pressure to reveal clients of lobbying firm
New details emerge of how Tory strategy guru combines role as political adviser with that of commercial lobbyist
David Cameron is under pressure to force his chief election strategist, Lynton Crosby, to reveal the identity of his business clients as new details emerge of the way the Australian combines roles as the Tories’ top political adviser with that of a commercial lobbyist. Crosby’s position as the Conservatives’ election guru – at the same time as heading his own communications, polling and lobbying firm, Crosby Textor, whose client list is not made public – is causing growing unease inside the party and the coalition, as ministers prepare to introduce sweeping new transparency rules on the role of lobbyists in public life.
Labour and Tory MPs, backed by pressure groups, insisted that Crosby – who is due to address Conservatives in the House of Commons on party strategy – should have to reveal his clients under the planned clean-up of lobbying rules triggered by recent scandals.
Since the Australian was appointed by the prime minister last November to mastermind Tory tactics, having run Boris Johnson’s successful campaign for re-election as London mayor last year, the government has abruptly dropped policies on minimum pricing for alcohol and cigarette packaging. It had also put on ice plans for a register of lobbyists. While Cameron insists Crosby does not advise him on policy but only on political strategy, critics have raised questions about the impression of potential conflicts of interest. Crosby Textor has represented tobacco and alcohol firms and was involved with British American Tobacco when the company was opposing new rules on packaging in Australia.
Either the Dunne story DOES matter (in which case talk of Crosby/Textor “distraction” is codswallop) or it doesn’t matter, in which case David Shearer is a fool who got played. Which?
We now know a lot more about PRISM, the top secret National Security Agency program that apparently allows the U.S. government to mine all sorts of electronic communications, than we did Thursday morning. For one (big) thing, we know it exists, thanks to simultaneous reports in The Washington Post and Britain’s The Guardian.
But there’s plenty we don’t know, because the program, after all, is a classified secret. The disclosure of the PRISM program, launched in 2007, was accompanied by the leak of a training PowerPoint presentation, The Washington Post says, by a “career intelligence officer” who has had first-hand experience with PRISM. The officer wanted “to expose what he believes to be a gross intrusion on privacy.” You can read some of the PowerPoint slides, and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s response to the leak.
That people could be surprised this is going on, given its been “out there” for years now, is telling!
The obligatory criminal investigation of the leak, will be well underway, the fasc*st owners of these systems built and designed these enterprises , for exactly what Prism is going. Digital finance, banking , trading et al. Nowhere to hide, almost total mapping of your daily life!
Re-post from my post in the iPredict forum. Projection based on the latest predictions on party vote and electoral seat winnings stocks per party on iPredict. In response to someone asking if there was manipulation with the National PM after next election having some suspiciously large purchases apparently trying to keep the percentage up over 50%, despite there being no good news recently that should make anyone trade at that level.
In fact, I was interested what the other stocks for the election show, the % party vote stocks which are less fun to manipulate as they’re less of a headline grabber, and in any event don’t pay out as well (alternatively, you don’t lose money if you’re wrong).
Unfortunately the current %s listed for the stocks don’t actually add up to 100%, they go slightly over, so I had to massage a few parties down, mainly the minor that don’t meet the 5% threshold anyway. Then I took the electorate vote stocks as well, which are important for the minor ‘parties’ such as John Banks and Peter Dunne, and also for the Maori Party. Those stocks currently have Mana winning 1, Maori Party winning 2 (down 1) and Banks and Dunne failing to win their seats back. I gave the MP seat to Labour since Mana is only projected to win 1 and not 2, and the Ohariu and Epsom seats to National, based on the party votes in those seats at the last election – in Ohariu Charles Chauvel has left politics so it’s an open question who Labour will stand there.
Anyway, with all of that, these are the results I get when plugging into the MMP election calculator: http://www.elections.org.nz
Party
Party Votes
Electorate
List
Total MPs
% of MPs
Green Party
11.00%
0
14
14
11.57%
Labour Party
35.00%
23
21
44
36.36%
Mana
0.80%
1
0
1
0.83%
Māori Party
1.00%
2
0
2*
1.65%
National Party
41.60%
44
9
53
43.80%
NZ First Party
5.30%
0
7
7
5.79%
Totals
94.70%
70
51
121
100.00%
I’ve cut out some of the columns from the results on the site.
This result would give 61 seats to Labour + Greens + Mana + Maori Party, vs 60 to National and NZFirst, or even Labour + Greens + NZFirst (abstaining?) for 65 vs National on 53 without even counting Mana or Maori P.
This strongly suggests that National’s only chance at government after 2014 would be to go into Coalition with NZFirst. The stock for NZFirst to support National in a balance-of-power situation is currently trading at 34% (up 7%), which IMO is a much more accurate representation of National’s chance of winning, rather than ~50% of the headlining stock.
Basic fix. I’m holding off pushing in the next set of updates until wordpress 3.6 finally and belatedly releases. The last two betas have been a bit disconcerting in the test system.
Nice work, Lanth, though shame about the layout problems. I’ve done the same exercise in the past and also been unable to edit it to look good.
But, the important thing is the numbers, and as you say, NZ First is National’s only hope now. It’ll be intersting to see how much pressure is put on Winston to identify his preferred coalition partner pre-election. If it’s generally thought that he will go with the Nats, then that could affect the results of both parties. NZF voters who want National gone may not vote for Winston and National voters desperate to give Key a coalition option may choose to party vote NZF, dragging down the Nat’s overall vote.
it also presents problems for Labour, who may have to distance themselves from Winston to avoid giving him credibility, thereby risking pushing him to the right. All in all, I think a simple Labour/Green coalition will be attractive to voters who want a change and that’s what I think we’ll end up with.
Yeah, my boyfriend pointed out that Labour’s approach here should be to try and reduce the NZFirst vote as much as possible. That would ensure that Winston would go with National, though.
I tweaked the numbers so that NZFirst got 4.9% of the vote, in that situation National-no-friends get 56 seats, vs Labour/Greens having 62 in a 121 seat parliament, so they wouldn’t even need Mana or MaoriP.
I think NZ First does a good enough job of losing votes on its own, it might be tolerable in most things, but on immigration and a lot of social issues it is far too socially conservative. It’s stance on gay marriage was pretty weird, then it isn’t new for a party Winston is in to vote down any kind of positive social reform.
Key is on record somewhere stating that he could not work with Winston Peters. That statement needs to be unearthed and the public reminded of it. Would love to hear Honest John explaining his way around that one should he start courting Peters.
The short answer is, Realpolitik. Whenever a politician talks about principles, you can expect them in the next breath to explain why they can’t put those principles into practice.
“National Party leader John Key has ruled out Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters having a role in any future National coalition, unless he can provide an explanation on the Owen Glenn saga.
Mr Key said this afternoon he would not accept Mr Peters holding a position in a future National Cabinet unless he could provide a “credible explanation” following evidence put before Parliament’s Privileges Committee by Mr Glenn, which “appears inconsistent” with Mr Peters’ earlier evidence.“
There was nothing weird about NZF’s stance on marriage equalisation (please don’t call it “gay marriage”, we don’t live in gay houses, pay gay taxes or work gay jobs) – as a small party with a diverse voter base NZF makes divisive social issues a matter of direct democracy (compare it with their support for a referndum on cannabis – not exactly what you’d call socially conservative). I rather thought you might be keen on direct democracy. It had no stance either way. The vote against was a matter of political principle because the party wanted a referendum – which is exactly the same as the Greens voting against Labour’s proposed same sex adoption act reforms because they don’t go far enough.
As for being conservative on immigration, while I don’t like the excessive focus on the Chinese, they really aren’t all that different from Greens policy regarding assimilation, preserving a national identity, economic sovereignty, and protecting the status of the tangata whenua.
“Can you really see Mana and ‘Maori’ parties working together in the same coalition ?”
Yes. Maori Party almost always votes against National’s policies, despite giving them confidence and supply. Pita has made it quite clear that he thinks it’s “important to be at the table” to be involved in making decisions; in other words he doesn’t actually have any principles and doesn’t care that he’s propping up a government that by and large are acting against his natural constituents’ best interests.
Do you not think that there are Maori capitalists?.
The Maori party has evolved into the Maori wing of the National party representing those Maori on the center right, that’s were they’re now naturally suited and where they can make the most impact.
Why would they want to fight for the scraps between themselves and Mana.
As it is, the Maori faction in Labour will control everything, if Mana or the Maori party is lucky they may get tossed a bone when ever they’re needed.
Who the hell would want to be part of that setup.
Maori Party acting as a 3rd or 4th wheel has more in common with Labour/Greens than it does National. Since Sharples thinks it’s “important to be at the table”, he’ll go into government with either, but obviously with the one that better reflects their values. Their voting record shows that is Labour, not National.
“Come back please!
“Can we swap?
“I’ll go back to the UN, you return to Labour.
“And if-I-were-Prime-Minister Grant will step up and campaign for 2014.”
Grant Robertson as Prime Minister?? – Really?? From what I’ve read and been told, he’s not really that popular outside Parliament. Hardly ever seen in his electorate office even though it’s just over the road from Parliament, so I hear. Labour came THIRD in the party vote in his electorate BEHIND the Greens if I remember correctly. Unlike David Cunliffe who increased his majority in what would normally be a National Seat since the boundary changes. Cunliffe as Prime Minister is believable, Robertson, not believable at all!
His electorate office is not opposite parliament – so perhaps you have been looking in the wrong place. He is however often in his electorate office in Willis St. Remember that Wellington Central was a National seat not that many years ago, and also elected Richard Prebble even more recently.
I believe Labour did not do enough to promote the party vote at the last election; I know a lot of people voted Robertson for the electorate vote and other parties for the party vote – including some for National!
I can’t let this go past:
An observation. I’m watching Q+A with the sound turned off (Mediawatch is a better option).
Simon Bridges is being interviewd.
Try it net time you see the guy on TV. Observe the anger and attitude in that guy! One little pumped up despot in the making
He seems a particularly repulsive man.
The ACT, I mean, National Party use him to pass all their laws attacking human rights in the country.
The Right to Protest at sea…
It’s a bit of a joke that he’s the MP from Tauranga passing that law, given the oil that the Rena left on the beaches of the Bay of Plenty.
Corin Dann actually did a good job on the major arsehole Simon Bridges.
Bridges reckons “Increased Profits = increased Wages” hahaha, so his legislation will reduce wages to increase profits which will lead to increased wages……………………..who is supporting these dickheads.
Oh, they all frequent the same lodges/clubs etc – Its, the *Those in on it*, and the *Those who wannabe in on it*, brigade!
Unfortunately, too stupid/morrally bankrupt, to understand, on current track, they too, are all in the queue, for the chop, just a little nearer the end of it!
Aha … so that’s what it was about – I’ll watch later with the sound turned on, but watching in silence, it looked like it was Bridges doing the “how DARE you ask me questions I don’t agree with”. (I’ll tell you where and when you can protest, and what is reasonable!!!)
I wondered where I’d come across those steely eyes, the abrupt/clipped speech, and the aggressive body language before – when journalists and/or citizens call their government representatives to account.
Then I realised. There’s a pathetic little malignant narcissist psychopath 3 hrs flight time to the north that displays the exact same behaviour, and who tries to dictate what is reasonable and what is not, and who thinks he knows best regarding the welfare and well-being of ‘his’ citizenry.
Where did democracy go? ( I mean aside from the fact that it got commodified, risk managed, and cost-benefit analysed by the political class and a cast of a thousand consultants).
I wonder whether the Esmeralda is still afloat. When Dear Leader Jude comes to power in perfect embroidered pink (if she ever does) – Esmeralda training might have to be compulsory training for ‘Her’ Cabinet.
Seems to me that the only difference between Frank and Soimon is that the former professes to have come from the left, whereas Soimon is ‘from the right’.
Same shit, different stink as they say. The end result is the same – which might be how one explains Mike Williams.
Ah well ….. NineToNoon tomorrow – Mike will be there clipping the ticket no doubt.
Anyway, my self-imposed TS ban is not supposed to be up till Tuesday. It was an observation though of earth shattering importance :p
an insightful question indeed. I feel for the working-class man, woman, and child; not so confident that Labour Party upper hierarchy do, but then, there was a Mike Williams who was a deputy of Wild Bill Hickok, accidentally shot and killed by Wild Bill. 🙂
A real little fascist if he thought he could get away with it. I can’t bear the way he speaks, like his mouth is full of marbles – and that awful grimacing he does to add emphasis!!! Painful to watch and hear!
Get Dunne invoking the old chestnut |” I’m human…….I make mistakes like everyone ” sort of thing.
No such delicate quarter given the horrible underclass by him and his masters I note – this underclass invariably suffering deprivation and stress which of course heightens the incidence of human failure – that he as a perennial trougher wouldn’t have a bloody clue about.
Q + A. That old trusty Michelle Boag crapping her pants too obviously. Doctrinaire, shrill, back-foot.
Oh My God. Bassett. They’re out in force. Yet as if butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth he acknowledges ” the market “, as oppposed to government action in housing, is a fuck-up.
-“vested interests of politicians, planners (property investors) in maintaining Metropolitan / Urban Limits…there is almost an immoral aspect to it”.
yet, still manipulating the population’s consciousness into the ‘home and section’ dream.
criticised “green” regulatory environment for costs and delays, local government regulatory costs.
and Yep, Boag, nervous, scoffing defense of Nat. employment reforms and opposition to CGT; so
vacuous
vacuous
vacuous.
—The Rt. Hon. Peter Dunne, ripping into “KappaMuTheta” on Twitter, after being upbraided for boasting about his drug orgies in parliament. (December 14, 2013)
“Y’know what? The only people who will mock them are people who are dwarfists.”
—-Boxing schlock promoter Dean Lonergan, on the upcoming bout between two “little people”.
Humbug Corner is dedicated to gathering, and highlighting, the most striking examples of faux solicitude, insincere apologies, and particularly stupid recycling of official canards. It is produced by the Insincerity Project®, a division of Daisycutter Sports Inc.
“If you want good, open, honest practice, you have to make it transparent.”
—Dr. Rodney Syme, croaking his advocacy for “doctors” being allowed to kill patients. Later, he sneeringly puts down the opposition to this as “a few sermons from a few pulpits”. (Radio New Zealand National, 9 June 2013)
More humbug….
No. 3 Dean Lonergan: “The only people who will mock them are people who are dwarfists.”
No. 2 Peter Dunne: “What a load of drivel and sanctimonious humbug…” http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-09062013/#comment-645811
No. 1 Dominic Bowden: “It’s okay to be speechless.”
On Q+A this morning, Boag opined that if National were to win a bi-election in Ohariu, that would not affect proportionality.
Yes that statement is true. Proportionality would remain intact.
However, a National Party electorate MP coming into the Beehive would necessitate the bottom listed List MP having to drop out of the Beehive. And that surely is the point of the whole debate. Dunne, being a member of another party, gives the government a working majority for confidence and supply. If Dunne goes, then National would struggle to get the numbers.
The Party Vote is very strongly in favour of National however. Also Charles Chauvel has resigned, so it would likely be a blank canvas in terms of personalities; I doubt National will stand Katrina Shanks there again.
Ah, well that evens things out a bit. But I am doubtful that National would get beyond 7000 or so were they to stand someone. The mood in the electorate is rather negative towards Dunne, and the party vote doesn’t really make a difference in the end – the electorate is by in large conservative, but is quite socially liberal. That explains how people give their party vote to National, yet vote for rather mild candiates like Dunne or Chauvel.
Yes, but that high Labour vote was for the greatly respected Charles Chauvel. He’s gone and we have to thank Shearer for that. Unlikely that the voters would go for Labour per se now.
The seat is wealthy and naturally National leaning. Of 37,000 party votes last time National won about half and Labour only 10,000 with the Greens on 5,400. Charles did extraordinarily well in the circumstances. It would be a huge ask for Labour to win it but for the 6 weeks or so National would be tottering on the edge of losing a vote in Parliament. They still need Dunne or they need Peters for support.
Well National and the right wing worked hard to try and crush Winston, would be poetic justice in that sense for Winston to bring down one of National’s coalition partners. 😉
“However, a National Party electorate MP coming into the Beehive would necessitate the bottom listed List MP having to drop out of the Beehive. ”
No, that’s not how it works.
The number of list seats each party is entitled to is determined from the final tally of the General Election. At that point, they are frozen until after the next General Election.
In this case, since Peter Dunne is in Parliament because he is an electorate MP, if he lost his electorate, he would be out of Parliament, and whoever wins is a straight replacement for him.
Actually I wonder how this works for the Maori Party, whose election outcome allows them 2 list seats, but they have 3 electorate seats. Say two of their current MPs were to leave parliament, by-elections would be held in each electorate, and say they went to Mana or Labour. Would we end up with the 2 new electorate MPs from the by-election, plus a new list MP for the Maori Party to make up their list entitlement?
Did you check the stuff article? They have to be brain dead to be quoting the party vote last election, it is the numbers that vote for electorate candidate x that win that electorate. But let them run BS lines about National winning the seat, come next election there Shanks won’t make it beyond 7,000 votes vs Labour’s 12,900+. 😉
Obviously it’s the number of electorate votes that determine who wins the electorate, but in terms of sentiment the party vote is the best gauge of people’s political leanings, and generally the party that wins the party vote in an electorate will usually also win the electorate.
With Charles Chauvel gone, UF in no position to stand any other candidate, the likely winner of the seat would be National.
Not sure about that, it could just as easily be claimed by the Greens (if Labour has a weak candiate or no candiate), if you are going under the assumption that Shanks won’t stand again.
If we made the very rough assumptions that the 14,000 Electorate votes for Dunne were to fall left and right in a proportion similar to the Party vote, ie about 16,000:18,000 and Labour stood a candidate at least as strong as Charles Chauvel, and the Greens did not split the vote, then there is a perfectly reasonable chance for Labour to take the seat.
Not a game-changer by itself, but overall a much needed boost for the left at this stage.
Factor in Shanks gunning for the seat rather than acting like wallpaper which is how she did. She’s a weak candidate and prone to clangers. And as an Ohariu voter I can attest that the Greens don’t have a chance here.
The point is, two elections in a row Labour has missed out on an electorate seat because the Greens have split the vote.
The sad part is that both parties stood pretty good candidates, Gareth Hughes and Charles Chauvel. This is not a mistake the right made in Epsom. (Well arguably they stood two very lousy candidates … but that’s another story.)
The greens and Labour are going need to sort out their dance steps before 2014. Stop stepping on each others toes.
NZers like their political parties principled (eg stand in every seat)…but we also like our political parties to be politically and tactically astute (i.e. don’t screw each others chances).
And as an Ohariu voter I can attest that the Greens don’t have a chance here.
As I am in the same electorate for 2014, I would say the Greens have a good chance. I know a lot of people in the electorate who used to support Dunne and give National their party vote (and will still vote National) – who are considering voting for the Green party member who stands.
While I agree that Ohariu is one of the more Green friendly electorates, their only chance of winning a by-election is if the 10,000 who voted for Charles Chauvel switch their vote to the new Green candidate. I can’t see the Labour hierarchy agreeing to that plan.
Point is, if both Labour and the Greens strongly contest the by-election, National will win it. As CV says, someone has to sort out the dance card.
These Ohariu voter like those in Espom, the 7 Maori seats and previously those voters in Jim Anderton’s old seat do vote differently from other electorates. The system allows for it.
I know many voters in Ohariu. Its not about voting for Dunne but if they are National voters they are able to have two effective votes. Just look at the 2011 numbers from RedLogix – 16k-18k Nats party & 6k electorates votes. This doesn’t make logical sense unless you say the National voters are really getting a 2:1 deal.
Something to consider – if the MMP rules translated the electorate vote into list % then Dunne and Banks as MP’s would never have happen.
My thinking is that Ohariu is a rather centrist if you go just by the party vote results. This is confirmed by the fact that Dunne who has positioned himself as totally centrist has been able to hold the Electorate seat for so very long.
My reasoning is this:
If Labour put up a decent candidate then they should be able to get at least the same 10,000 people who voted for Charles Chavel to vote Labour again. The same for the 7,000 people who voted for Katrina Shanks.
The 14,000 people who voted for Peter Dunne will need to find a new candidate, and I’m assuming they will fall roughly (14,000 * 16,000/37,000) = 6,000 to Labour giving a total of around (10,000 + 6,000) = 16,000.
National get (14,000 *18,000/37,000) = 8,000 giving a total of (7,000 + 8,000) = 15,000.
That’s a game on contest …. assuming that the Greens don’t split the vote again.
I don’t see National getting 15,000. If Dunne doesn’t run, most of those who voted Dunne just won’t vote. There is little interest among most Dunne voters to change to someone else. National just sits in their office, and has done nothing for the electorate. Commentators are dreaming if they think it is an easy win for National.
Agree that it is not as clear cut, especially the OB electorate is centrist, smart and there can be a tendency to vote during a by-election to send a particular message to the government of the day.
To suggest that the 14000 who voted Dunne in 2011 can be split back into National & Labour on a pro ratio basis does not make sense.
If those 14000 voters wanted Labour in 2011 they would not have voted Dunne. Everyone in the Ohariu electorate understand that voting Dunne was getting an extra seat for Key.
Those voters will go back to (1) National or (2) a 3rd party. What I saying is that Labour reached its peak Ohariu vote in 2011 – maybe in a by-election they may pick up another 1k.
As I stated before the voters in Ohariu/Espom/Maori seats are 2 for 1 voters.
Everyone in the Ohariu electorate understand that voting Dunne was getting an extra seat for Key.
Not quite … everyone understood that a vote for Dunne was gaining an electorate seat for whoever formed the government.. If Goff had won (and the 2011 election was contrary to popular sentiment a very close run) … then Dunne would have been a Minister in a Labour/Green coalition government.
Ok, just had a look at the 1993 electoral law, and this is my interpretation of how the situation with the MaoriP above would be resolved.
The law seems to hinge on the way in which the person creating the vacancy was elected to Parliament. If the MP has left and they were elected from the list, then the next list candidate for that party will take their place (we see this commonly enough). If the MP has left and they were an electorate representative, then the person that wins the by-election replaces them, regardless of what party the original MP was, or the party of the new MP – we also see this fairly commonly.
In my scenario above, all 3 Maori Party MPs are electorate MPs, so if there is a vacancy in any of their seats, and the new party that wins the seat is not the Maori Party, the MaoriP does not get to bring anyone in from their list. In other words the only thing keeping the MaoriP in Parliament is their electorate seats, if they lost all of them in by-elections they would end up with 0 MPs in parliament, despite their 2011 election result allowing them 2 list positions.
In that respect, getting 2 electorates seats + 1 list seat is much preferable to 3 electorate seats, as the list seat acts as a stable anchor independent of by-election outcomes.
I respect your researching of all acts Lanthanide.
However National only got a certain percentage of the popular vote at the last election and that is all they are entitled to have in this parliament. That was the whole reason for having a stitched up deal with ACT in Epsom. They got their proportional percentage plus one guaranteed extra MP to vote for them in the house (i.e. ACT). The same was the issue of Ohariu. Dunne’s vote did not affect National’s proportion of the vote. National by proportionality are only entitled to X number of members of parliament. The number of ELECTORATE MP’s has no bearing on the proportionality – the difference being made of LIST MP’s. If Dunne goes, National’s proportionality does not change. They simply get another ELECTORATE MP. (if they win Ohariu) and they cannot have extra respresentation beyond their proportion of the last election.
The proportion of the party vote cannot change in a by-election for an electorate seat as such a vote is for the seat only,
In a by-election there is NO party vote so proportionality is governed by the result of the previous general election where there is a party vote,
National now have their full compliment of MP’s based upon the electorates they won in 2011 and topped up by X list MP’s to match the proportion of the party vote they won,
Should a by-election be held in Ohariu and National win they will have 1 more MP in the house than their proportion of the party vote in 2011 allows, thus they would need lose a list MP to maintain the number of MP’s allowed by their proportion of the vote at the 2011 election…
“Should a by-election be held in Ohariu and National win they will have 1 more MP in the house than their proportion of the party vote in 2011 allows, thus they would need lose a list MP to maintain the number of MP’s allowed by their proportion of the vote at the 2011 election…”
By that same logic, the Maori Party should not have been allowed to create an overhang by winning 3 electorates but only having enough party votes for 2 list seats.
And yet they did. That was at the general election. By-elections are no different.
On the contrary Lanthanide. The Maori Party issue under MMP creates the situation of Overhang in the parliament where it is possible to win electorate seats out of proportion to your Party Vote. Precisely what happened in this parliament. That is why there are more than 120 members sitting there. They were elected on a separate roll and that is what has caused the overhang in this parliament.
The Maori MPs in the Labour Party, affect the number of list MPs Labour can have in the overall proportionality. If Labour were to win all of the Maori seats, then there would be only 120 MP’s in parliament.
Apart from anything else, if the bottom-ranked list MP had to drop out, then all s/he would have to do is waka-jump before the by-election result (or before the new MP is sworn in). An independent MP can’t be thrown out of Parliament.
So it would be an unforceable rule (if it existed, which it doesn’t).
Nope – the Maori seats come from a different poll.
And as for a list MP Waka jumping – quite apart from the fact that that would put Collins’ refusal to adopt the recommended changes to the legislation in a very bad light – the Waka jumper would kiss any further chance of party recognition good ‘bye.
It was also the reason for the recommendation that “coat-tailing” be removed.
ACT polled enough of the party vote to get 1 MP, but not two. Hence that Ellectorate MP was also the one and a bit pcnt. not enough for two members. Similarly for UF.
No your wrong, electorate seats are paramount in the Parliament, if any party were to say win 60 electorate seats but only gain say 30% of the party vote they would keep ALL 60 electorate seats,
Thats where the Maori Party overhang comes from, their proportion of the party vote entitles them to only 2 seats, they won 3 electorate seats, such electorate seats trump the party vote entitlement,
Which is the point being made about the Ohariu seat should Dunne resign and National win it in a by-election,
There are no specifics in the Legislation surrounding this aspect of such a by-election, but, under the relevant legislation it would behove the Electoral Commission to revisit the calculation made after the 2011 election,
The Electoral Commissions duty is quite clearly laid out in the Electoral Act 1993, Section 192, sub-clause (2),
”Subject to subsection (3), the Electoral Commission MUST then proceed, in respect of each remaining party listed in the part of the ballot paper that relates to the party vote, to DEDUCT from the number of seats to which each party is entitled to under subsection (1)-
(a), the number of persons who stood as CONSTITUENCY CANDIDATES for that party and whose names were endorsed on the writ persuant to section 185 as having been elected as members of Parliament…
Lolz, definitive???, the Electoral Commission is charges under law with maintaining the proportionality of the Parliament,
The relevant sections i have quoted from the Electoral Act shows how the Electoral Commission are to carry out their function, the number of electorate seats are to be subtracted from the TOTAL number of seats any party gains from the party vote AND THEN the allowable number of LIST MP’s will become MP’s to make up the total of a party’s allowable number of MP’s based upon the % of the party votes cast,
No-where in any legislation does the DUTY of the Electoral Commission to maintain proportionality become extinguished,
What i notice from the previous debate vis a vis the Epsom seat that you have linked me to is that in one part YOU even make a claim that an MP can be both an electoral and a list MP,
PS, and Graeme Edgler is the definitive voice on this particular question why???…
“What i notice from the previous debate vis a vis the Epsom seat that you have linked me to is that in one part YOU even make a claim that an MP can be both an electoral and a list MP,”
In the sense that they consume a list slot while representing an electorate in Parliament. As per the strict algorithm for deciding who is in Parliament, MPs that win electorate seats are given primacy and therefore are considered Electorate MPs rather than List MPs, and the number of electorate MPs for a party is deducted from their total list allocation to determine the number of list MPs the party therefore ends up with.
“Lolz, definitive???,”
Definitive in the sense that I linked 5 preceeding comments to give you some context to the discussion, which was actually about a slightly different issue than what we are discussing at hand. The final one I linked to is therefore definitive when talking about this specific issue.
“No-where in any legislation does the DUTY of the Electoral Commission to maintain proportionality become extinguished,”
You are right, the legislation does not give formal instructions (as far as I can find) about how a seat from an electorate MP is to be filled after a by-election; in contrast it does give very explicit instructions on how to fill a vacant list seat in S137.
S193 that you are relying on is talking about determining who wins list seats after a general election based on the party vote at that general election. There is no party vote in a by-election, so it it is not clear that any of the process mentioned by S193 or related sections would apply after a by-election.
“PS, and Graeme Edgler is the definitive voice on this particular question why???…”
I didn’t say he was “the definitive voice”, just that he agrees with me, and I pointed out the particular relevant comment in regards to this present conversation.
You may also read in that thread that Andrew Geddis does not disagree with Graeme or myself on any points, while he does disagree with Mike Smith.
Graeme Edgeler is a Wellington barrister with a self-proclaimed interest in legislature and legislative process. Andrew Geddis is a professor of law at Otago and lists in his research interests Election Law and Constitutional Theory. Andrew is often asked to comment on political and electoral matters by the mainstream media.
Lanth, Your reply at paragraph 2, why not just say that in the previous debate you got that point wrong instead of typing out a pile of mumbo jumbo about algorithms,
You made a blunt ‘unqualified’ assertion in the previous debate you linked me to that an MP could be both a list and electorate MP, we both know that that assertion was not correct and your attempt now to qualify it is facile,
Second point, we only assume that section 192 of the electoral act is strictly confined to general elections, nowhere in the legislation does it say this,
Section 192 simply proscribes how the Electoral Commission will maintain the proportionality of the Parliament it gives no hint as to whether such prescription is to be only applied to general elections just as it gives none that it is also to apply to by-elections,
We could then spend any amount of time debating this issue which i personally do not have the inclination to persue,
i will attempt to put aside the time during the week so as to enable me to put the question to the Electoral Commission as to what they would do vis a vis this very question, until i can contact them and gain an answer we will have to agree to disagree…
“Lanth, Your reply at paragraph 2, why not just say that in the previous debate you got that point wrong instead of typing out a pile of mumbo jumbo about algorithms,”
Because you have to look at the context of when I made that statement. I was strictly wrong, in that an MP is technically not both a list and electorate MP, but what I was trying to illustrate is that the point that it is the number of list MPs that is fixed by the general election, not the total number of MPs in an electorate. That is actually the same point we are arguing right now.
“We could then spend any amount of time debating this issue which i personally do not have the inclination to persue,”
Well there’s nothing more to say other than what has been said. We both agree that the legislation, as far as we can tell, does not definitively say what must be done after a by-election vis-a-vis the total number of MPs a party is awarded in Parliament following the prior general election.
I’ve presented my argument, which is agreed to by Graeme Edgeler and not objected to by Andrew Geddis, and you’ve presented your argument.
The Monday morning update: i have emailed the Electoral Commission regarding the question of debate,
Having read the Electoral Commission website i am now leaning to ward conceding that i am wrong where i contend that National should they win Ohariu in a by-election would have to drop a sitting MP off of it’s party list to accommodate the extra electorate MP and maintain the proportionality of the Parliament,
The Electoral Commission website states bluntly that a by-election might upset the proportionality of the Parliament which while not conclusive tends to support your view of what would actually occur given a by-election in Ohariu,
‘Things’ might get a little interesting when the Commission replies as i will be querying the Commission about which specific piece of legislation supports whichever stand they take around this issue,(or perhaps where the legislation is unclear they just make up the rules as they go along),
foot-note: listening to RadioNZ National this morning discussing the same issue, they tend to support my argument, or should i say my previous argument as i now lean toward believing i got that wrong…
“foot-note: listening to RadioNZ National this morning discussing the same issue, they tend to support my argument, or should i say my previous argument as i now lean toward believing i got that wrong…”
I heard that too – one reporter implied your interpretation.
However a later interview with John Key implied strictly the opposite – that if they win Ohariu on a by-election they end up with an extra seat. I’d trust Key’s word (since likely he would have been briefed on the possibility) over a journalist.
Lolz i had the radio on during Kim Hill’s interview of Slippery the PM, my brain immediately switched off when the little Shyster started whining as it does these days as a default setting to ensure appliances do not suffer unnecessary damage…
What you are saying does not sound quite right,(as i have read it), if Dunne resigns and a by-election returned a National candidate for the Ohariu seat then National under the proportional rule would have to lose a list MP yes/no,
The proportion size of the National vote in 2011 only allows for them to have the number of MP’s it’s caucus currently has,
Winning the Ohariu electorate would push the National Party 1 MP above what it is allowed given it’s proportion of the Party Vote which is the final arbiter of the total number of MP’s a party is allowed…
At the last election, Labour gained twice as many electorate votes as National did in Ōhariu Lanthanide. In this regard you’re likely to be wrong… The Natz simply won’t gain enough of Dunne’s vote to make up the 6000 votes that Labours last candidate was ahead by.
In fact being that Dunne is centrist, his vote is likely to be split right down the middle. That will give Labours next candidate around 20,000 votes to the Nats 14,000.
Of course some of Dunne’s right wing vote will be soaked up by Act, NZ First and the Conservatives when the Greens will hopefully campaign more effectively against people giving them their electorate vote. There really isn’t any choice for people who previously voted for Dunne who lean left other than Labour.
Electorates are often won by candidates that don’t have the most party votes. To be exact 19 electorates at the last election were won by candidates where the party vote told another story.
Jackal, my reply at 13.4.3.1 was specifically about bad12 saying that if National win Ohariu in a by-election, they would lose a list seat.
Your reply is rather about the chances of National winning the seat, rather than the outcome. That topic is discussed by myself and others elsewhere in this thread: 13.4.1 and onwards. You’d be best to read up the replies there and reply in that sub-thread, rather than continue this one.
In any event, your particular analysis here is too shallow: Charles Chauvel has since resigned from Parliament and presumably would not stand in a by-election, which are very much about personalities, and Katrina Shanks was not seriously contesting the electorate vote in Ohariu (actually she got told off by the party at one point for implying that Ohariu voters should give 2 ticks to National). This is all mentioned in the comments further up-thread. I think RedLogix had the best take on it – Labour could potentially win, but only if the Greens didn’t split the vote. Also the idea that a more-educated electorate could take the opportunity to send a message to the government could see a vote against National.
The Greens would need to split the vote by an unconceivable amount Lanthanide if they were to ensure Labour lost Ōhariu in any bye-election. What makes you think that there will be a huge increase in people giving their electorate vote to the Greens when they have campaigned against it, and will they even stand somebody in a Ōhariu bye-election anyway?
In one sentence you seem to imply that Chauvel only gained 13,000 votes because of his personality, but then mention that National would likely stand Katrina Shanks again. A turnip has more personality than Shanks, so I don’t think that will be much of a factor.
I also believe that National would lose a list MP even if they managed to secure Shanks in Ōhariu. The party vote hasn’t changed, and that’s what determines such things. Therefore if either National or Labour win Ōhariu, the government will lose one vote, which is all the majority they really have.
In that event, the Maori party would have huge bargaining power, which many National supporters will find hard to swallow. It will also mean a vote of no confidence is likely to succeed, and a snap election called.
Jackal, please refer to the posts above as I indicated, which discusses this stuff in detail. For example, see RedLogix’s post:
If Labour put up a decent candidate then they should be able to get at least the same 10,000 people who voted for Charles Chavel to vote Labour again. The same for the 7,000 people who voted for Katrina Shanks.
The 14,000 people who voted for Peter Dunne will need to find a new candidate, and I’m assuming they will fall roughly (14,000 * 16,000/37,000) = 6,000 to Labour giving a total of around (10,000 + 6,000) = 16,000.
National get (14,000 *18,000/37,000) = 8,000 giving a total of (7,000 + 8,000) = 15,000.
16,000 for Labour vs 15,000 for National would easily be disrupted by the Greens snatching 2,000 votes, which is approximately what they won in 2011.
“but then mention that National would likely stand Katrina Shanks again. A turnip has more personality than Shanks”
Actually I did NOT say that all, although I can see how you might think I did. Once again, please refer to the posts further upthread where this has already been discussed – and I have already said several times I don’t think National would stand Shanks again.
I’m not going to reply to any further comments by you on this particular sub-thread because there’s no point – you’re missing a lot of context in other people’s arguments.
What happened to you not responding? In my opinion; “You must respond at the correct places” isn’t much of an argument Lanthanide. I see no issue with me replying here to your numerous incorrect statements throughout this thread.
Firstly you say that it’s an open question who Labour will stand in Ōhariu, but then imply that the next Labour candidate will lose votes because they won’t have the similar likable personality as Charles Chauvel.
In an electorate that is predominated by around 40% business people, your argument that these people would naturally support National over Labour, which ignores the fact that these same people are likely to be prejudiced against Chauvel is telling.
Then you state that the Greens could split the vote, despite not knowing if they will even stand a candidate and that they would need to increase on their 2011 electorate vote by around 200% to be able to strip enough votes away from Labour for National to win.
When you make such grandiose statements that are clearly unsubstantiated, don’t be surprised when somebody questions your reasoning.
There’s also the claim that if National win, they would retain all their list MPs. This is despite you stating:
The number of list seats each party is entitled to is determined from the final tally of the General Election. At that point, they are frozen until after the next General Election.
This is a complete contradiction in terms… You are effectively arguing against yourself. You also claim that:
…generally the party that wins the party vote in an electorate will usually also win the electorate.
This claim is made despite the fact that 19 electorates in the 2011 election had a candidate winning when the party vote was not in their favour. One of these electorates was Ōhariu.
I will concede that personality has a lot to do with who wins electorates, however relying on such a weak analysis like yours, which is obviously favouring National winning in the event of a by-election, is obviously flawed.
Another flaw in your analysis is the fact that you have not taken account of the percentage shift away from National in favour of the left, in which an equal shift should be calculated for most electorates.
Relying on how people on iPredict are spending their money, to analyze how any potential election, whether it be a snap or not, is clearly not an affective statistical instrument to rely on.
…generally the party that wins the party vote in an electorate will usually also win the electorate.
What gets overlooked is the party vote to NZF,in CHCH central they got more then the cumulative total of all the other parties.In this electorate ACT and United each polled on the party vote less then the informal(errors) which a cynic might conclude that you are more likely to make an error then vote either ACT or United.
Your logic seems logical logie7. However it’s all getting a bit too convoluted for my brain cells.
Assuming you are correct, is that why NAct – through the supposedly neutral Mr Speaker – saw to it Dunne’s little facade of a party would continue to be funded?
As I mused up at 1.2.1, it occurred to me in the middle of the night, that Carter’s decision on Thursday re continuing to recognise UF as a parliamentary party for the next 8 weeks or so, has nothing to do with Standing Orders, legalities or even dollars.
Rather Carter’s National Party need the UF confidence and supply agreement to continue to ensure Dunne’s support for legislation etc over the next few months. If Dunne was now to be deemed an Independent MP, this would presumably nullify the C&S agreement, allowing Dunne complete independence with his vote. National cannot afford a possible renegade in this regard. As we now know, Carter’s decision came after Key’s meeting on Weds night with Dunne – with its ultimatum.
Carter’s refusal to release the advice on which he made his decision also raises who gave that advice. I doubt very much that it was independent advice – eg the Clerk of the House. Moree likely from Carter’s National colleagues for political reasons – hence his refusal to release the advice.
The advice would have come from John Key via a suitable mouthpiece. No holds barred… do as I say or else we will see you are the laughing stock of the nation.
So much for Peter Dunne putting his trust in this Prime Minister.
Both decisions were made by the looks of it on Wednesday night. They have to be related. And it shows National’s contempt for the rule of law that they would not worry about a little thing like Parliament’s Standing Orders to stand in the way.
The outcome at the end of the past week was a negotiated dunnekey win-win package deal.
With the passing of days when the David Henry report should have already been due, and leading up to the long weekend, the wheels were falling off one by one for Dunne, with ramifications for Key.
(1) Dunne’s party problems with de-registration.
Various key people have been sitting on it and keeping mum, but can’t for much longer.
(2) Dunne’s continuing refusal to provide the requested material so that the Henry report can be completed.
The report was due by 31 May and Tory Watkins already ran a story the previous day reporting Dunne as saying “discussions are ongoing [!?] because the report hasn’t been completed”. The report was formally completed and dated 5 June, and handed to the PM.
(3) Dunne’s un-ministerial conduct in habitually leaking would be evident (if revealed) from his emails to Vance.
Btw, in the scheme of things, these were actually only a few emails that reflect a sliver of Dunne’s pathological leakey habits that go quite a long way back.
(4) The personal tone of his emails (to put it politely).
Although this is the least of the worries, it is also the sexiest in terms of tabloid fodder. Commentators should not be distracted by this and should now regard this as immaterial. The above-mentioned matters are of greater significance legally/constitutionally, politically and for the government.
(5) As would also be evident, if the emails were released, they will reveal some unsavoury things about Key and his cabinet. More diplomatically and tersely here, it can just be said that they would reflect badly on Key as PM and also as the Minister responsible for GCSB. Brand Key can do with less damage at the moment.
With (3), a few key things would be exposed. Some of these, taken individually, would not be hanging offences but would be run-of-the mill leaks that would be embarrassing; however, others, and given the series of them, were more serious. The leaks related to various cabinet appointments and departmental matters, not just about the leaked Ketteridge report, but recent matters that roped in the PM/Minister responsible for GCCB, as well as at least a couple of major things that are yet to more fully play out and would be of interest more widely, outside the country … cough cough
Where does that leave us?
(A) Dunne gets to keep the party leadership and his parliamentary status (the famous Wednesday night discussion and then the Speaker’s ruling, on Thursday, before the next’s day bombshell in the lead-up to the weekend.. best to drop them in this order and in quick succession)
(B) Dunne, as the lesser of many evils for him and Key, gives up his ministerial portfolios
(C) Dunne gets some time out to attend to various matters on various fronts and, no, he and Key do not want a by-election in Ohariu-Belmont
(D) With confidence and supply, Dunne continues to keep the now shakey government going
(E) The search for who actually leaked the Ketteridge report can be officially announced as ended
(F) A bit more time is bought to hold off some matters not just of domestic concern but that have the eyes of other countries … cough cough cough
Without criticising the investigator, the focus should be on the limitations of that report. The question still remains – who actually leaked the Ketteridge report; and can the leaker be found, assuming fingerprints were unintentionally left?
The thing is this is a small country and there are still many people who have a higher sense of what is right and what is wrong. It is of course in Key’s interest that other matters in the email do not ever (if that is possible) or do not yet see the light. The emails may eventually be more widely available – it is a question of when and to what extent. At this low ebb, there isn’t very much more that Dunne can lose. It is for the opposition to shine the light on Key from this point …
Oh, and then there was Winston going on The Nation yesterday. Incidentally, he had previously indicated likely support for the GCSB bill and so will provide the government with additional numbers. This is useful in case Dunne’s support does not come through after the first stage, or if Key’s other partners come to grief in the near future.
All’s well that ends well for the National government? For now? Over to the other side of the House to hold Key to account.
I’m hopeful there will be some sort of evolution over these revelations, although I’m somewhat concerned that the US populace is too medicated to really implement any substantial change.
No less should be expected from a very proficient, knowledgeable and intelligent spokesperson for broadcasting, open government, communications and IT
😈 😈
A further interesting thing is… we have Winston Peters getting stuck into Peter Dunne for leaking sensitive information to a reporter, yet someone has leaked electronic copies of the emails in question to Winston Peters. Is he going to demand the sacking or removal of… the person who has leaked to him? Doubt it somehow.
It will be difficult to mete out appropriate consequences to the leaker if that person’s identity is not known, not even (let’s say directly, officially or formally) to the leakee.
There are simple old-fashioned ways for documents to be leaked without needing to hand them over by hand/in person or electronically 🙂
John Key should know this and it was possibly on his mind when he announced the David Henry investigation 😈
To be mischievous 🙂 it can be suggested that even Vance and Fairfax may not even “actually know” the identity of the leaker given the way information reached their desk.
I doubt that Peters has electronic copies of the emails in question. It is obvious from his answers on Q+A and The Nation that he only knows some of the contents. Now, there are a number of people who could have passed that information on to Peters. I suggest that Vance is probably the least likely.
There seems to be a number of people keeping mum at the moment.
Firstly Andrea Vance. Her employee, Fairfax, have made their position very clear that they will not reveal their sources etc etc . Re Andrea herself – according to Farrar, she is due to get married about now, so probably has other things on her mind. And personally, I would like to send her my very best wishes. I don’t necessarily agree with some of her writings, but at least Andrea seems to be ‘on the job’ in terms of investigative journalism compared to some of our other so-called journalists.
I have just seen the Q +A video and according to Michelle Boag… there was only one person who had a copy of the emails etc. and that was Andrea Vance. She effectively said it was Vance who supplied the electronic emails to Peters. If she is right then the plot thickens. 😯
Boag would predictably want others to follow that seemingly obvious path.
The spotlight would then turn on Vance.
The real issues do not relate to the hunt for the leaker (and possibly dragging in a few people as collateral damage) but to pinning down accountability and responsibility to office holders.
Anne – according to Michelle Boag. How does Michelle know who has copies of those emails? She doesn’t. She tried to blame Vance for passing the emails to Peters – but she does not know who has copies. She is a hands length vehicle to get people to believe what National/Key want us to believe. She is trying to shift the blame etc – National need Dunne to stay for his vote in the meantime.
Peters has had many decades of relationships with the media etc – he has many contacts. He knows how the game works. Remember the teapot fiasco when he said he had the tapes. Never underestimate him.
How does Boag know only Vance and Dunne had access to the emails? Surely Vance would have showed them to her boss? And could someone in Dunne’s office have seen them?
“The emails may eventually be more widely available – it is a question of when and to what extent.”
The only emails that matter are the four that Dunne deleted, in my opinion. I suspect that the redacted emails shown to the Henry inquiry are the potentially salacious ones.
reminds me of childhood.
“Those were the days my friends we thought they’d never end
We’d sing and dance, forever and a day
We’d live the life we choose
We’d fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way
La la la la…”
What reminds me of my childhood is terrible 80s hits on my town’s radio station, being picked on due to my disability (by teachers who failed to understand it, and nasty children), homophobia in New Zealand, and Aunty Helen helping wipe away a few nasty Rogergnomes. 😉
But this prioritization of security over liberty wasn’t invented by this president. It began as the unforgivable exploitation of fear in the days after 9/11 and became entwined in the American worldview. We’ve sadly become just as accustomed to unnecessary searches and privacy intrusions as the federal government has grown accustomed to going beyond its mandate to smoke out the evildoers.
Clip of Winston on the radio saying over the next few weeks, he’ll release proof showing Dunne leaked the Kitteridge report, and some other sensitive reports too.
Cunning enough to leak bit by bit to keep both himself and the issue alive and well.
Must be why Mr Dunne would prefer an instant caning to hours in detention?
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters says more damaging information will emerge in the next few weeks about United Future MP Peter Dunne.
…
However, Mr Peters told Radio New Zealand News on Sunday he has information which proves Mr Dunne not only leaked the GCSB report before its scheduled release, but also other classified documents.
He said it’s the prime minister’s job to get his hands on the emails and reveal the truth.
Mr Peters did not rule out releasing the information himself, but said it should come from John Key and not from someone outside the Government.
Auckland Mayoral candidate Penny Bright slams Minister of Justice Judith Collins
” Since when did she become an expert on fluoridation or public health?”
______________________________________________________________________________
“I am unclear how Minister of Justice Judith Collin’s childhood in rural Waikato, makes her support of fluoridation of water supplies a ‘considered opinion’?” asks Auckland Mayoral candidate, Penny Bright.
“But Collins, who said she was brought up drinking fluoride-free water in rural Waikato, described the decision as “absolutely gutless”.
“It [the council] didn’t just ask for central government to make a decision, it made a stupid decision, which I think the council will find the people of Hamilton will revisit for them in October.”
______________________________________________________________________________
Auckland Mayoral candidate, Penny Bright, suggests that the Minister for Justice Judith Collins, Ministry of Health officials, and others who support the fluoridation of public drinking water supplies, carefully read this new study in the Journal of Environmental and Public Health which delivers a significant blow to fluoridation:
“..chronic effects of fluoride involve alterations in the chemical activity of calcium by the fluoride ion. Natural calcium fluoride with low solubility and toxicity from ingestion is distinct from fully soluble toxic industrial fluorides …”
“Industrial fluoride ingested from treated water enters saliva at levels too low to affect dental caries. Blood levels during lifelong consumption can harm heart, bone, brain, and even developing teeth enamel.
The widespread policy known as water fluoridation is discussed in light of these findings. ….”
“Can the Ministry of Health and Watercare Services be trusted, given their proven track record in supporting the use of Waikato water, as a ‘raw’ source of drinking water supplies for the Auckland region?” asks Bright.
“As someone who has spent hundreds of hours researching this issue, I suggest that people read the following document which I prepared for a meeting of the Auckland City Council Finance and Business Committee back in October 2002, and ask yourselves.”
“For the public record, I again state my considered opinion, that as a 2013 Auckland Mayoral candidate, I do NOT support the fluoridation of public drinking water supplies.”
“Cometary impacts could result in the synthesis of prebiotic molecules without the need for other ‘special’ conditions, such as the presence of catalysts, UV radiation, or special pre-existing conditions on a planet,” Goldman said. “This data is critical in understanding the role of impact events in the formation of life-building compounds both on early Earth and on other planets and in guiding future experimentation in these areas.”
Could have interesting implications for the spread of life throughout the universe.
The word on the street from no less luminaries as Cactus, Whale and the NBR is that Peter D. has an infatuation with the lovely Andrea, as QoT phrased earlier the “ol honeypot ruse”. Might it be that the grey haired old buffoon doesn’t want the world to see emails confirming that his desires involve not so much as leakages as unzipping himself.
Its all rather unseemly, imagine of a governments majority rises and falls with the zipper of an aged wannabee Lothario.
It is quite clear why those folks are focusing on the “infatuation” bit which is actually now immaterial in the scheme of things.
The left and parliamentarians should stay focus on the real issues that matter, tracking back to the PM and the Minister responsible for GCSB.
And if the identity of the leaker is of such interest – the question still remains whether it was an inside job. Even more serious is the question whether the PM was involved with that, even if indirectly.
Really Alanz. We are a tabloid nation, sound byte simpletons. We will forget tomorrow who leaked what and not quite understand the significance and sinfulness of the action. Our Presbyterian morality however will have us judge and condemn scandalous sinful depravity (or mere suggestions there of) far more acutely. Who remembers Colin Moyle?
“We”, as a nation, and about four decades later, can learn from that and do better.
Vance’s role in the scheme of things is retreating to the periphery.
Dunne’s emails, sent in the course of work, courtesy of taxpayers, and in his capacity as a cabinet minister as well as the government’s coalition partner, are still of central focus and the issues caught up with the negotiated deal are of public interest. The mess goes right up to the PM’s door which people should keep on knocking.
I do. Very well. And yes… that was a set-up. Interestingly it was not a set-up organised by the PM of the day (Muldoon), but he came to hear about it and used the incident to destroy Colin Moyle. It was nasty and the background activity that led to the incident would have been unlawful, but the culprits either got away with it unidentified, or for political reasons were allowed to get away with it.
—All Black halfback Aaron Smith, betraying not even the slightest hint of irony. (Radio New Zealand National news, 9 June 2013)
More humbug….
No. 4 Dr. Rodney Syme: “If you want good, open, honest practice, you have to make it transparent.” No. 3 Dean Lonergan: “The only people who will mock them are people who are dwarfists.” No. 2 Peter Dunne: “What a load of drivel and sanctimonious humbug…” http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-09062013/#comment-645811 No. 1 Dominic Bowden: “It’s okay to be speechless.”
Humbug Corner is dedicated to gathering, and highlighting, the most striking examples of faux solicitude, insincere apologies, and particularly stupid recycling of official canards. It is produced by the Insincerity Project®, a division of Daisycutter Sports Inc.
Poor young Aaron. may he grow up to be as cynical as moi, a less than skilful opensider with a rather cavalier disregard for the offside line. The lad needs to learn honesty, free admission that the game of rugby is a matter of who cheats better, who can organise and get away with the most nefarious deeds. Going by the record we NZers are rather superior serial offenders. They say the game reflects life, move over Richie, Shonkey step up and take the number seven jersey.
“Nietzsche was probably the most self-aware person that ever lived.”
-Sigmund Freud.
“Every person must choose how much truth they can stand”.
“Despair is the price one pays for self-awareness. Look deeply into life, and you will always find despair”.
“Only the wounded healer can truly heal”.
“If we climb high enough we will reach a height from which tragedy ceases to look tragic”.
“It is wrong to bear children out of need, wrong to use children to alleviate loneliness, wrong to provide purpose in life by reproducing another copy of oneself. It is also wrong to seek immortality by spewing one’s germ into the future as though sperm contains your consciousness”.
“Marriage and it’s entourage of possession and jealousy enslave the spirit”. (It is better that a man not marry, but if he must…).
-Irvin D. Yalom; Author of ‘When Nietzsche Wept’. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irvin_D._Yalom
“There are no coincidences” my good friend; I only went to get feesh and cheeps, and there was a book on 20th C History to read while waiting (curry roll too, and sustainably-fished Hoki), so read up on The Boxer Rebellion (whose On The Mat now) and a few other choice tidbits from around 1900. and the Freud quote was in a section on you-know-who.
I wonder if we have Depts. running courses strictly on Nietzsche in this country (incl. all his influences, before and after). Now, there’s a job for A Portrait of The Artist as a Young Man.
that’s OK, I understand, I only arise when I have finished resting, and can still only follow “conversations” by catching them on the fly in the comments box, top-right.
Furthermore, always found it beneficial to think spherically of history and culture; euro-centricism is a trap for small thinkers. Interesting the reference to the sustaining influence of African-derived Popular and Rock Music (and jazz) in the 20th C.
Excellent article, exactly what we are seeing and ties up all the salient references many of us have made and offered.
1st and 4th white-chocolate fish if you can guess who I enjoyed reminiscing over on the national broadcaster this evening.
which reminds me, now this ‘authoritarian-awareness’ meme has taken root, the N/national psyche is certainly a fertile bed in which Confucianism can establish. 😀
Ha! The shape of history and the morphology of civilisations is irresistable.
More and more people are realising that the future they have been sold is very unlikely to ever be delivered. Which means that people are going to go back to things that they know do work.
As for the rise of authoritarianism and imperial pervasiveness…George Lucas already framed it well in the mid 1970’s, with a very fetching Carrie Fisher
“The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers”
PROTEST!
AGAINST THE HOUSING ACCORDS AND SPECIAL HOUSING AREAS BILL!
Social Services Select Committee are hearing verbal submissions IN AUCKLAND
on this Bill, from 9am – 4.30pm, MONDAY 10 June 2013.
Requesting that Parliament declines to proceed with the Housing Accords and Special Housing Areas Bill until the lawfulness of the reliance of Auckland Council on the New Zealand Department of Statistics”high”population growth projections, instead of their “medium” population growth projections for the Auckland Spatial Plan, has been properly and independently investigated, taking into consideration that both Auckland Transport and Watercare Services Ltd, have relied upon “medium” population growth projections for their infrastructural asset management plans.
Petition number: 2011/64
Presented by: Holly Walker
Date presented: 30 May 2013
Referred to: Social Services Committee
___________________________________________________________________
Love the late night musings comments/quotes on/from Nietzsche and Lucas…..from Ghostrider and Viper…very poetic and thought provoking…water from deep springs….. food for thought! Thanx
Saint-Exupery “wanted to make certain that human life and landscape be framed as much by the poetics of arts -and -letters humanism as by Cartesian science” (Edmunds V Bunkse, ‘Saint -Exupery’s Geography Lesson: Art and Science in the Creation and Cultivation of Landscape Values’. Annals American Geographers)
“I dont care if I am killed in the war. But what will remain of what I have loved?….What is valuable is a certain ordering of things. Civilization is an invisible tie, because it has to do not with things but with the invisible ties that join one thing to another in a particular way. Civilization is an invisible tie, because it is not to do with things but with the invisible ties that join one thing to another in a particular way.” ( Saint-Exupery shortly before his last mission over France)
Peter Dunne writes – It is one of the oldest truisms that there is never a good time for MPs to get a pay rise. This week’s announcement of pay raises of around 2.8% backdated to last October could hardly have come at a worse time, with the ...
David Farrar writes – Newshub reports: Newshub can reveal a fresh allegation of intimidation against Green MP Julie-Anne Genter. Genter is subject to a disciplinary process for aggressively waving a book in the face of National Minister Matt Doocey in the House – but it’s not the first time ...
The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: TVNZ says it is dealing with about 50 formal complaints over its coverage of the latest 1News-Verian political poll, with some viewers – as well as the Prime Minister and a former senior Labour MP – critical of the tone of the 6pm report. ...
Muriel Newman writes – When Meridian Energy was seeking resource consents for a West Coast hydro dam proposal in 2010, local Maori “strenuously” objected, claiming their mana was inextricably linked to ‘their’ river and could be damaged. After receiving a financial payment from the company, however, the Ngai Tahu ...
Alwyn Poole writes – “An SEP,’ he said, ‘is something that we can’t see, or don’t see, or our brain doesn’t let us see, because we think that it’s somebody else’s problem. That’s what SEP means. Somebody Else’s Problem. The brain just edits it out, it’s like a ...
Our trust in our political institutions is fast eroding, according to a Maxim Institute discussion paper, Shaky Foundations: Why our democracy needs trust. The paper – released today – raises concerns about declining trust in New Zealand’s political institutions and democratic processes, and the role that the overuse of Parliamentary urgency ...
This article was prepared for publication yesterday. More ministerial announcements have been posted on the government’s official website since it was written. We will report on these later today …. Buzz from the BeehiveThere we were, thinking the environment is in trouble, when along came Jones. Shane Jones. ...
New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is ...
Luxon will no doubt put a brave face on it, but there is no escaping the pressure this latest poll will put on him and the government. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political ...
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or ...
Something odd happened yesterday, and I’d love to know if there’s more to it. If there was something which preempted what happened, or if it was simply a throwaway line in response to a journalist.Yesterday David Seymour was asked at a press conference what the process would be if the ...
Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy.Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
You make people evil to punish the paststuck inside a sequel with a rotating castThe following photos haven’t been generated with AI, or modified in any way. They are flesh and blood, human beings. On the left is Galatea Young, a young mum, and her daughter Fiadh who has Angelman ...
April has been a quiet month at A Phuulish Fellow. I have had an exceptionally good reading month, and a decently productive writing month – for original fiction, anyway – but not much has caught my eye that suggested a blog article. It has been vaguely frustrating, to be honest. ...
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 21, 2024 thru Sat, April 27, 2024. Story of the week Anthropogenic climate change may be the ultimate shaggy dog story— but with a twist, because here ...
Hi,I spent about a year on Webworm reporting on an abusive megachurch called Arise, and it made me want to stab my eyes out with a fork.I don’t regret that reporting in 2022 and 2023 — I am proud of it — but it made me angry.Over three main stories ...
The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
Do you remember when Melania Trump got caught out using a speech that sounded awfully like one Michelle Obama had given? Uncannily so.Well it turns out that Abraham Lincoln is to Winston Peters as Michelle was to Melania. With the ANZAC speech Uncle Winston gave at Gallipoli having much in ...
She was born 25 years ago today in North Shore hospital. Her eyes were closed tightly shut, her mouth was silently moving. The whole theatre was all quiet intensity as they marked her a 2 on the APGAR test. A one-minute eternity later, she was an 8. The universe was ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is Antarctica gaining land ice? ...
Images of US students (and others) protesting and setting up tent cities on US university campuses have been broadcast world wide and clearly demonstrate the growing rifts in US society caused by US policy toward Israel and Israel’s prosecution of … Continue reading → ...
Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
A week that began in triumph ended in an all-too-familiar disaster for the Green Party. Duncan Greive asks if there’s something in the mission that breaks its best and brightest. A long, strange week for the Green party began with a fantastic poll result. On one level this is hardly ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Vanuatu’s former prime minister and opposition MP Ishmael Kalsakau has stepped down — just two days after he confirmed he was the rightful opposition leader. Kalsakau, MP for Port Vila, confirmed to ABC’s Pacific Beat, and the Vanuatu Daily Post on Thursday that he ...
What’s to blame for the coalition’s choppy start? Six months in, and the mojo meter is in the doldrums. A new poll would put National out of power and sees its leader, Chris Luxon, sliding in popularity. How much is it about policy, how much coalition management and a perception ...
The striking report goes far beyond the proposed repeal of the Oranga Tamariki Act’s Treaty of Waitangi provision, and its impact should be felt far beyond the unique circumstances of the claim it addresses. Earlier this week, the Waitangi Tribunal released an interim report on the government’s proposed repeal of ...
The world has been experiencing a productivity slowdown, from which New Zealand has not been exempt. COVID-19 temporarily boosted labour productivity, but more recently, productivity has retreated. The overall trend since 2007 has been one of slow productivity ...
What’s more wasteful than spending $315k on syrup and machine maintenance? Trying to drum up a controversy about it.Cast your mind back to the pre-pandemic idylls of 2019. A “rat” was a disgusting rodent and not a self-administered plague test; the sixth Labour government was in power; and the ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow, Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne Amna Artist/Shutterstock One of the earliest descriptions of someone with cancer comes from the fourth century BC. Satyrus, tyrant of the city of Heracleia on the Black Sea, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Rose, Professor of Sustainable Future Transport, University of Sydney LanaElcova/Shutterstock Electric vehicles are often seen as the panacea to cutting emissions – and air pollution – from transport. Is this view correct? Yes – but only once uptake accelerates. Despite the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Giselle Natassia Woodley, Researcher and Phd Candidate, Edith Cowan University There is widespread agreement Australia needs to do better when it comes to gender-based violence. Anger and frustration at the numbers of women being killed saw national rallies over the weekend and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney Mark and Anna Photography/Shutterstock As home ownership moves further out of reach for many Australians, “rentvesting” is being touted as a lifesaver. Rentvesting is the practice of renting one property to live ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sukhmani Khorana, Associate Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, UNSW Sydney Netflix The new season of Heartbreak High is garnering mixed reviews. Critics are writing about the racy story lines, comparing it to other coming-of-age series about teenage relationships and ...
Bob Carr intends to launch legal action against Winston Peters and Julie Anne Genter is facing a second allegation of bullying. Both sucked the air out of an announcement on education, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in ...
In 1995, Sally Clark went out on her own in a bold and unorthodox attempt to join an illustrious group of equestrian riders conquering the world. In the days of glovebox road maps, brick cell phones, and the hit song How Bizarre, Clark refused to follow Sir Mark Todd, Blyth ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Beaglehole, Senior Lecturer, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago niphon/Getty Images The number of people accessing medication for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in Aotearoa New Zealand increased significantly between 2006 and 2022. But the disorder is still under-diagnosed and ...
To celebrate the start of New Zealand music month, we look back at the best local tuneage that managed to weasel its way into Hollywood productions. There’s nothing quite like the thrilling zap of recognition when New Zealand weasels its way into a glamorous Hollywood production. Crack open a Tui ...
People trust other people more than institutions. So how can the media gain that trust through journalists without losing what’s important about the institution? Anna Rawhiti-Connell reflects on two years of curating the news for The Bulletin.Amonth ago, armed cops descended on my neighbourhood as calls to “lock your ...
Essay: If the Crown harms children, how do you hold it accountable? Analysis by Aaron Smale in light of the Waitangi Tribunal court decision. The post The Crown versus Māori Children appeared first on Newsroom. ...
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NONFICTION 1 The Last Secret Agent by Pippa Latour & Jude Dobson (Allen & Unwin, $37.99)’ This is the hottest book in New Zealand, number one with a bullet in its first week, selling more than any overseas title, and demand is so huge that it’s already been reprinted. A ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 3 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra A key part of the Albanese government’s political strategy is to fill the news cycle with its presence and messaging. Ministers are deployed to the maximum, even when they’ve little to say. This week ...
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By Jo Moir, RNZ News political editor, and Craig McCulloch, deputy political editor New Zealand’s Labour Party is demanding Winston Peters be stood down as Foreign Minister for opening up the government to legal action over his “totally unacceptable” attack on a prominent AUKUS critic. In an interview on RNZ’s ...
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By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor Jeremiah Manele has been elected Prime Minister of Solomon Islands, polling 31 votes to 18 over rival candidate and former opposition leader Mathew Wale with one abstention. The final result of the election by secret ballot was announced by the Governor-General, Sir David Vunagi, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Priestley Habru, PhD candidate, public diplomacy, University of Adelaide Former foreign minister Jeremiah Manele has been elected the next prime minister of Solomon Islands, defeating the opposition leader, Matthew Wale, in a vote in parliament. The result is a mixed bag for ...
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The NZQA proposal released to staff today would involve a net loss of 35 roles. There are 66 roles being disestablished with 13 of those currently vacant, and 31 new roles proposed, said Fleur Fitzsimons Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga ...
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Results ranged from surprisingly yum to soul-destroying. I love cooking. The kitchen is a hearth of culinary creation, of sensory delights, of gastronomic poetry. I also can’t afford anything nice. Why does a pack of instant noodles and some milk cost ten bucks? I love you, Aotearoa, but I miss ...
By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor Police in Solomon Islands are on high alert ahead of the election of the prime minister today. The two candidates for the top job are former foreign affairs minister Jeremiah Manele at the head of the Coalition for National Unity and Transformation, which is ...
-*-*-*-*- CONFIDENTIAL MEMO -*-*-*-*-
TO: Kevin Taylor, Andrea Vance
CC: Greg Hywood, Allen Williams
FROM: HQ
RE: Congratulations!!
Well done on stitching up Dunne. Yes, okay, we admit it now, we were skeptical but, really, who’d’ve thought the ole honey-pot ruse would still lure in a long-time, sly as politician? First job for the pair of you when you’ve knocked back the case of champers arriving this morning by courier is to identify other targets for similar ops. What about Mallard?
In terms of mopping up with Dunne, the only sticky point with him is that he knows he didn’t leak so he has to be kept silenced. It seems fairly certain that Carter giving his party extra time to get its paperwork sorted will help but, perhaps, just let him know we have the emails. Maybe dribble out another tidbit or two for Whaleoil early next week to remind him?
The other sticky point is that Key cannot find out his own office was responsible. It certainly suited him at the time after he nearly had us going to war against North Korea, and it took the pressure off any further investigation into the Fletcher / Hollywood / GCSB connections. Looks like we wangled that okay, but the PM’s been getting a little reluctant to keep up the facade lately. The doofus seems to be somewhat distracted by the idea of leaving a legacy or some such bullshit. So, whatever you do, you also stay schtum. Until you know when.
Otherwise, carry on.
Kindest regards
Lynton and Mark.
Nice.
I would have added something about Vance coordinating her operations with Lusk under the guise of her recent puff-piece profile. And even before this debacle, calling Dunne “sly as” seems overly generous – sure he’s been a survivor up till now, but so are; cockroaches, and; Peters.
I didn’t realise Andrea Vance once worked for that scandal-mongering rag, The News of the World, in the Scottish office.
Good call Lynton and Mark. I agree when you put Key demanding Dunne’s resignation together with Carter’ offering Dunne a lifeline things look really shonky. Both events need to be looked at simultaneously. I have blogged about it at http://waitakerenews.blogspot.co.nz/2013/06/the-decline-of-dunne-and-rise-of-peters.html
MS, I have not yet read your blog, but totally agree that both Key demanding Dunne’s resignation and Carter’s ‘lifeline’ have to be looked at simultaneously.
It occurred to me in the middle of the night that in terms of Carter’s decision which seemed uncomprehensible at the time, this could possibly be viewed as an attempt to maintain the status quo in respect of UF’s Confidence and Supply agreement.
That is, if UF’s deregistration was deemed to result in Dunne becoming an Independent MP, the C and S agreement could be null and void thereby allowing Dunne complete freedom in terms of his voting if he was no longer a Minister – particularly as we now know that the night before Carter’s ruling, Key had delivered his ultimatum to Dunne. National need his votes on a number of important pieces of legislation in the next few weeks – including the GCSB Bill when it is reported back from Select Committee in late July. Hence the 8 week grace period?
Carter’s refusal to release the advice he had received to the House, or say who provided the advice, also suggests that the advice may have not come from an independent adviser, for example the Clerk of the House – but possibly from Carter’s National colleagues/masters. Thin ice, I know, but this week could be very interesting.
On the subject of Dunne’s leaking, Winston Peters is now claiming that Dunne has leaked to Vance on several other occasions recently
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10889276
Lynton Crosby under pressure to reveal clients of lobbying firm
New details emerge of how Tory strategy guru combines role as political adviser with that of commercial lobbyist
David Cameron is under pressure to force his chief election strategist, Lynton Crosby, to reveal the identity of his business clients as new details emerge of the way the Australian combines roles as the Tories’ top political adviser with that of a commercial lobbyist. Crosby’s position as the Conservatives’ election guru – at the same time as heading his own communications, polling and lobbying firm, Crosby Textor, whose client list is not made public – is causing growing unease inside the party and the coalition, as ministers prepare to introduce sweeping new transparency rules on the role of lobbyists in public life.
Labour and Tory MPs, backed by pressure groups, insisted that Crosby – who is due to address Conservatives in the House of Commons on party strategy – should have to reveal his clients under the planned clean-up of lobbying rules triggered by recent scandals.
Since the Australian was appointed by the prime minister last November to mastermind Tory tactics, having run Boris Johnson’s successful campaign for re-election as London mayor last year, the government has abruptly dropped policies on minimum pricing for alcohol and cigarette packaging. It had also put on ice plans for a register of lobbyists. While Cameron insists Crosby does not advise him on policy but only on political strategy, critics have raised questions about the impression of potential conflicts of interest. Crosby Textor has represented tobacco and alcohol firms and was involved with British American Tobacco when the company was opposing new rules on packaging in Australia.
.. snip ..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/08/lynton-crosby-tory-strategy-lobbying-firm
Crosby me old mate. Many a true word….
the ole honey-pot ruse
Really? 🙄
All this “Crosby/Textor” stuff is very entertaining, but it ignores the obvious question – Did Labour have to fall for it? Because clearly they did …
http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/PB/Business/QOA/9/7/a/50HansQ_20130529_00000001-1-Prime-Minister-Statements.htm
Either the Dunne story DOES matter (in which case talk of Crosby/Textor “distraction” is codswallop) or it doesn’t matter, in which case David Shearer is a fool who got played. Which?
Now to sort out the political embarrasment that Crosby-Textor’s involvement with Boris Johnson & David Cameron is creating in the UK.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/08/lynton-crosby-tory-strategy-lobbying-firm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/08/lynton-crosby-tory-strategy-lobbying-firm
Words fail me .. Russel probably did the right thing in coming over here.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/exlabor-pollster-tips-epic-disaster-20130605-2nqlb.html
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1559369/rudd-is-labors-best-last-hope/?cs=8
Someone should send this to Shearer and tell him, this is what you are dooming the Labour Party of NZ to.
doom, DOOOOOOOM I tells ya!
Not what the polls say, but never mind.
Huh ? Which polls ?
roy morgan for one, and any poll that had national at >50% during 2011
http://theweek.com/article/index/245317/what-we-know-about-prism-the-nsas-data-goldmine
We now know a lot more about PRISM, the top secret National Security Agency program that apparently allows the U.S. government to mine all sorts of electronic communications, than we did Thursday morning. For one (big) thing, we know it exists, thanks to simultaneous reports in The Washington Post and Britain’s The Guardian.
But there’s plenty we don’t know, because the program, after all, is a classified secret. The disclosure of the PRISM program, launched in 2007, was accompanied by the leak of a training PowerPoint presentation, The Washington Post says, by a “career intelligence officer” who has had first-hand experience with PRISM. The officer wanted “to expose what he believes to be a gross intrusion on privacy.” You can read some of the PowerPoint slides, and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper’s response to the leak.
That people could be surprised this is going on, given its been “out there” for years now, is telling!
The obligatory criminal investigation of the leak, will be well underway, the fasc*st owners of these systems built and designed these enterprises , for exactly what Prism is going. Digital finance, banking , trading et al. Nowhere to hide, almost total mapping of your daily life!
Matt McCarten on this vexed issue ..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10889270
Matt nails it. Key has to woo Peters now…
Re-post from my post in the iPredict forum. Projection based on the latest predictions on party vote and electoral seat winnings stocks per party on iPredict. In response to someone asking if there was manipulation with the National PM after next election having some suspiciously large purchases apparently trying to keep the percentage up over 50%, despite there being no good news recently that should make anyone trade at that level.
Lynn, can you fix this table up? I’ve done my best with non-breaking spaces but it still looks like ass.
Even better, can you fix the
code tags
up so that they actually preserve spaces and tabs? That would solve all the problems.Basic fix. I’m holding off pushing in the next set of updates until wordpress 3.6 finally and belatedly releases. The last two betas have been a bit disconcerting in the test system.
Nice work, Lanth, though shame about the layout problems. I’ve done the same exercise in the past and also been unable to edit it to look good.
But, the important thing is the numbers, and as you say, NZ First is National’s only hope now. It’ll be intersting to see how much pressure is put on Winston to identify his preferred coalition partner pre-election. If it’s generally thought that he will go with the Nats, then that could affect the results of both parties. NZF voters who want National gone may not vote for Winston and National voters desperate to give Key a coalition option may choose to party vote NZF, dragging down the Nat’s overall vote.
it also presents problems for Labour, who may have to distance themselves from Winston to avoid giving him credibility, thereby risking pushing him to the right. All in all, I think a simple Labour/Green coalition will be attractive to voters who want a change and that’s what I think we’ll end up with.
Yeah, my boyfriend pointed out that Labour’s approach here should be to try and reduce the NZFirst vote as much as possible. That would ensure that Winston would go with National, though.
I tweaked the numbers so that NZFirst got 4.9% of the vote, in that situation National-no-friends get 56 seats, vs Labour/Greens having 62 in a 121 seat parliament, so they wouldn’t even need Mana or MaoriP.
I think NZ First does a good enough job of losing votes on its own, it might be tolerable in most things, but on immigration and a lot of social issues it is far too socially conservative. It’s stance on gay marriage was pretty weird, then it isn’t new for a party Winston is in to vote down any kind of positive social reform.
Key is on record somewhere stating that he could not work with Winston Peters. That statement needs to be unearthed and the public reminded of it. Would love to hear Honest John explaining his way around that one should he start courting Peters.
The short answer is, Realpolitik. Whenever a politician talks about principles, you can expect them in the next breath to explain why they can’t put those principles into practice.
flew a paper-plane sortie from the gallery down aisle seven. 😉
Unless Key suddenly does a massive u-turn on asset sales, it ain’t going to happen
Hi logie97,
I think this is the link you are looking for.
From the link:
“National Party leader John Key has ruled out Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters having a role in any future National coalition, unless he can provide an explanation on the Owen Glenn saga.
Mr Key said this afternoon he would not accept Mr Peters holding a position in a future National Cabinet unless he could provide a “credible explanation” following evidence put before Parliament’s Privileges Committee by Mr Glenn, which “appears inconsistent” with Mr Peters’ earlier evidence.“
There was nothing weird about NZF’s stance on marriage equalisation (please don’t call it “gay marriage”, we don’t live in gay houses, pay gay taxes or work gay jobs) – as a small party with a diverse voter base NZF makes divisive social issues a matter of direct democracy (compare it with their support for a referndum on cannabis – not exactly what you’d call socially conservative). I rather thought you might be keen on direct democracy. It had no stance either way. The vote against was a matter of political principle because the party wanted a referendum – which is exactly the same as the Greens voting against Labour’s proposed same sex adoption act reforms because they don’t go far enough.
As for being conservative on immigration, while I don’t like the excessive focus on the Chinese, they really aren’t all that different from Greens policy regarding assimilation, preserving a national identity, economic sovereignty, and protecting the status of the tangata whenua.
Re. “This result would give 61 seats to Labour + Greens + Mana + Maori Party”
Can you really see Mana and ‘Maori’ parties working together in the same coalition ?
It certainly puts Winston in the drivers seat .. which he is doubtless well aware.
“Can you really see Mana and ‘Maori’ parties working together in the same coalition ?”
Yes. Maori Party almost always votes against National’s policies, despite giving them confidence and supply. Pita has made it quite clear that he thinks it’s “important to be at the table” to be involved in making decisions; in other words he doesn’t actually have any principles and doesn’t care that he’s propping up a government that by and large are acting against his natural constituents’ best interests.
Do you not think that there are Maori capitalists?.
The Maori party has evolved into the Maori wing of the National party representing those Maori on the center right, that’s were they’re now naturally suited and where they can make the most impact.
Why would they want to fight for the scraps between themselves and Mana.
As it is, the Maori faction in Labour will control everything, if Mana or the Maori party is lucky they may get tossed a bone when ever they’re needed.
Who the hell would want to be part of that setup.
Maori Party acting as a 3rd or 4th wheel has more in common with Labour/Greens than it does National. Since Sharples thinks it’s “important to be at the table”, he’ll go into government with either, but obviously with the one that better reflects their values. Their voting record shows that is Labour, not National.
There is also the issue of whether Turia has forgiven Labour.
I believe she’s retiring at the end of this term.
Arguably every iwi functions as a corporation with shareholding based on genealogy
?Shearer to Charles:
“Come back please!
“Can we swap?
“I’ll go back to the UN, you return to Labour.
“And if-I-were-Prime-Minister Grant will step up and campaign for 2014.”
Actually a new face in Ohariu doesn’t hurt Labour at all. I wouldn’t wish Carles to return. His leaving speech was perfect and he needed to get out.
Grant Robertson as Prime Minister?? – Really?? From what I’ve read and been told, he’s not really that popular outside Parliament. Hardly ever seen in his electorate office even though it’s just over the road from Parliament, so I hear. Labour came THIRD in the party vote in his electorate BEHIND the Greens if I remember correctly. Unlike David Cunliffe who increased his majority in what would normally be a National Seat since the boundary changes. Cunliffe as Prime Minister is believable, Robertson, not believable at all!
His electorate office is not opposite parliament – so perhaps you have been looking in the wrong place. He is however often in his electorate office in Willis St. Remember that Wellington Central was a National seat not that many years ago, and also elected Richard Prebble even more recently.
I believe Labour did not do enough to promote the party vote at the last election; I know a lot of people voted Robertson for the electorate vote and other parties for the party vote – including some for National!
I really don’t much care which personality it is as long as they have integrity, ideas, take people with them, and are effective.
Party–Party Votes %–Electorate–List–Total no. MPs–% of MPs
Green—11.00—-0–14–14–11.57
Labour–35.00–23–21–44–36.36
Mana—–0.80—-1—0—-1—0.83
Māori—–1.00—-2—0—2*–1.65
National-41.60—44–9—53–43.80
NZFist—-5.30—-0—7—-7—5.79
Total—–94.70—70–51–121–100.00
Thanks for the predictions Lanth.
Outstanding bit of analysis there, Lanth.
Rodney Hide doing his inglorious little ad hominum bit on Russel Norman:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10889269
Thanks anyway Love Perks, for demonstrating just how much you boys and girls are crapping your pants.
A sad time for you I know – Max Merritt and The Meteors say it best – “Slippin’ Away-Ay-Ay…….”
http://www.lyricsondemand.com/m/maxmerrittthemeteorslyrics/slippingawaylyrics.html
I can’t let this go past:
An observation. I’m watching Q+A with the sound turned off (Mediawatch is a better option).
Simon Bridges is being interviewd.
Try it net time you see the guy on TV. Observe the anger and attitude in that guy! One little pumped up despot in the making
That is exactly how Bridges comes across to me when he answers questions in Parliament!
” One little pumped up despot in the making”
who John Key stated a few weeks back was “the future of the party”
He seems a particularly repulsive man.
The ACT, I mean, National Party use him to pass all their laws attacking human rights in the country.
The Right to Protest at sea…
It’s a bit of a joke that he’s the MP from Tauranga passing that law, given the oil that the Rena left on the beaches of the Bay of Plenty.
Corin Dann actually did a good job on the major arsehole Simon Bridges.
Bridges reckons “Increased Profits = increased Wages” hahaha, so his legislation will reduce wages to increase profits which will lead to increased wages……………………..who is supporting these dickheads.
Oh, they all frequent the same lodges/clubs etc – Its, the *Those in on it*, and the *Those who wannabe in on it*, brigade!
Unfortunately, too stupid/morrally bankrupt, to understand, on current track, they too, are all in the queue, for the chop, just a little nearer the end of it!
Aha … so that’s what it was about – I’ll watch later with the sound turned on, but watching in silence, it looked like it was Bridges doing the “how DARE you ask me questions I don’t agree with”. (I’ll tell you where and when you can protest, and what is reasonable!!!)
I wondered where I’d come across those steely eyes, the abrupt/clipped speech, and the aggressive body language before – when journalists and/or citizens call their government representatives to account.
Then I realised. There’s a pathetic little malignant narcissist psychopath 3 hrs flight time to the north that displays the exact same behaviour, and who tries to dictate what is reasonable and what is not, and who thinks he knows best regarding the welfare and well-being of ‘his’ citizenry.
Where did democracy go? ( I mean aside from the fact that it got commodified, risk managed, and cost-benefit analysed by the political class and a cast of a thousand consultants).
I wonder whether the Esmeralda is still afloat. When Dear Leader Jude comes to power in perfect embroidered pink (if she ever does) – Esmeralda training might have to be compulsory training for ‘Her’ Cabinet.
Seems to me that the only difference between Frank and Soimon is that the former professes to have come from the left, whereas Soimon is ‘from the right’.
Same shit, different stink as they say. The end result is the same – which might be how one explains Mike Williams.
Ah well ….. NineToNoon tomorrow – Mike will be there clipping the ticket no doubt.
Anyway, my self-imposed TS ban is not supposed to be up till Tuesday. It was an observation though of earth shattering importance :p
on this topic of Bridges, and tying in with the frequent criticisms of Mike Williams on TS;
from Q+A
“I’m normally quite impressed by him (referring to Bridges)”.- Mike Williams.
Yes, what exactly would impress Williams about Bridges?
an insightful question indeed. I feel for the working-class man, woman, and child; not so confident that Labour Party upper hierarchy do, but then, there was a Mike Williams who was a deputy of Wild Bill Hickok, accidentally shot and killed by Wild Bill. 🙂
Bridges to nowhere, Mike Williams channeling Larry Williams.
Last week Mike proudly stated: “I’m a lefty”. I think he means he’s left-handed.
A real little fascist if he thought he could get away with it. I can’t bear the way he speaks, like his mouth is full of marbles – and that awful grimacing he does to add emphasis!!! Painful to watch and hear!
It’s his ridiculous teen speak that annoys me.
http://thestandard.org.nz/prwoperty-rwights/#comment-632947
Get Dunne invoking the old chestnut |” I’m human…….I make mistakes like everyone ” sort of thing.
No such delicate quarter given the horrible underclass by him and his masters I note – this underclass invariably suffering deprivation and stress which of course heightens the incidence of human failure – that he as a perennial trougher wouldn’t have a bloody clue about.
That’s ironic from such a righteous twerp. He looked down his nose a lot. Hope he likes the view from the other angle.
Q + A. That old trusty Michelle Boag crapping her pants too obviously. Doctrinaire, shrill, back-foot.
Oh My God. Bassett. They’re out in force. Yet as if butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth he acknowledges ” the market “, as oppposed to government action in housing, is a fuck-up.
-“vested interests of politicians, planners (property investors) in maintaining Metropolitan / Urban Limits…there is almost an immoral aspect to it”.
yet, still manipulating the population’s consciousness into the ‘home and section’ dream.
criticised “green” regulatory environment for costs and delays, local government regulatory costs.
and Yep, Boag, nervous, scoffing defense of Nat. employment reforms and opposition to CGT; so
vacuous
vacuous
vacuous.
Boag is an easier way to describe ‘solidified snot’.
certainly not Hump-free.
Though they may have opium in common.
Humbug Corner
No.2: PETER DUNNE
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
“What a load of drivel and sanctimonious humbug – you can’t expect to be taken in any way seriously.”
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
—The Rt. Hon. Peter Dunne, ripping into “KappaMuTheta” on Twitter, after being upbraided for boasting about his drug orgies in parliament. (December 14, 2013)
http://thestandard.org.nz/late-night-twitter/#comment-563195
More humbug….
No.1 Dominic Bowden: “It’s okay to be speechless.”
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-02062013/#comment-642288
Humbug Corner
No. 3: DEAN LONERGAN
“Y’know what? The only people who will mock them are people who are dwarfists.”
—-Boxing schlock promoter Dean Lonergan, on the upcoming bout between two “little people”.
Humbug Corner is dedicated to gathering, and highlighting, the most striking examples of faux solicitude, insincere apologies, and particularly stupid recycling of official canards. It is produced by the Insincerity Project®, a division of Daisycutter Sports Inc.
More humbug….
No. 2 Peter Dunne: “What a load of drivel and sanctimonious humbug…”
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-09062013/#comment-645811
No. 1 Dominic Bowden: “It’s okay to be speechless.”
Humbug Corner
No. 4: DR. RODNEY SYME
“If you want good, open, honest practice, you have to make it transparent.”
—Dr. Rodney Syme, croaking his advocacy for “doctors” being allowed to kill patients. Later, he sneeringly puts down the opposition to this as “a few sermons from a few pulpits”. (Radio New Zealand National, 9 June 2013)
More humbug….
No. 3 Dean Lonergan: “The only people who will mock them are people who are dwarfists.”
No. 2 Peter Dunne: “What a load of drivel and sanctimonious humbug…”
http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-09062013/#comment-645811
No. 1 Dominic Bowden: “It’s okay to be speechless.”
I take it you don’t believe should be able to choose to die with dignity then?
I take it you don’t believe should be able to choose to die with dignity then?
I certainly do. I don’t think we should kill them though.
On Q+A this morning, Boag opined that if National were to win a bi-election in Ohariu, that would not affect proportionality.
Yes that statement is true. Proportionality would remain intact.
However, a National Party electorate MP coming into the Beehive would necessitate the bottom listed List MP having to drop out of the Beehive. And that surely is the point of the whole debate. Dunne, being a member of another party, gives the government a working majority for confidence and supply. If Dunne goes, then National would struggle to get the numbers.
Is my understanding of the issue correct?
Not according to how close Labour was to winning it last time. If Dunne lost popularity it would swing back to Labour:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%8Chariu#2011_election
The Party Vote is very strongly in favour of National however. Also Charles Chauvel has resigned, so it would likely be a blank canvas in terms of personalities; I doubt National will stand Katrina Shanks there again.
Ah, well that evens things out a bit. But I am doubtful that National would get beyond 7000 or so were they to stand someone. The mood in the electorate is rather negative towards Dunne, and the party vote doesn’t really make a difference in the end – the electorate is by in large conservative, but is quite socially liberal. That explains how people give their party vote to National, yet vote for rather mild candiates like Dunne or Chauvel.
Yes, but that high Labour vote was for the greatly respected Charles Chauvel. He’s gone and we have to thank Shearer for that. Unlikely that the voters would go for Labour per se now.
And it wasn’t *just* Charles Chauvel.
Recognition and credit should be given to his partner, David, together with the team who built up the party membership. They are good people.
Amen to that.
The seat is wealthy and naturally National leaning. Of 37,000 party votes last time National won about half and Labour only 10,000 with the Greens on 5,400. Charles did extraordinarily well in the circumstances. It would be a huge ask for Labour to win it but for the 6 weeks or so National would be tottering on the edge of losing a vote in Parliament. They still need Dunne or they need Peters for support.
That will be an interesting answer logie. It would be unprecedented for an MP to leave the Government for such reasons. Maybe Winston has it figured.
Well National and the right wing worked hard to try and crush Winston, would be poetic justice in that sense for Winston to bring down one of National’s coalition partners. 😉
I don’t think bye elections don’t change the list allocations?
So nats winning ohariu woulds give them a extra more controllable member??
“However, a National Party electorate MP coming into the Beehive would necessitate the bottom listed List MP having to drop out of the Beehive. ”
No, that’s not how it works.
The number of list seats each party is entitled to is determined from the final tally of the General Election. At that point, they are frozen until after the next General Election.
In this case, since Peter Dunne is in Parliament because he is an electorate MP, if he lost his electorate, he would be out of Parliament, and whoever wins is a straight replacement for him.
Actually I wonder how this works for the Maori Party, whose election outcome allows them 2 list seats, but they have 3 electorate seats. Say two of their current MPs were to leave parliament, by-elections would be held in each electorate, and say they went to Mana or Labour. Would we end up with the 2 new electorate MPs from the by-election, plus a new list MP for the Maori Party to make up their list entitlement?
Did you check the stuff article? They have to be brain dead to be quoting the party vote last election, it is the numbers that vote for electorate candidate x that win that electorate. But let them run BS lines about National winning the seat, come next election there Shanks won’t make it beyond 7,000 votes vs Labour’s 12,900+. 😉
Obviously it’s the number of electorate votes that determine who wins the electorate, but in terms of sentiment the party vote is the best gauge of people’s political leanings, and generally the party that wins the party vote in an electorate will usually also win the electorate.
With Charles Chauvel gone, UF in no position to stand any other candidate, the likely winner of the seat would be National.
Not sure about that, it could just as easily be claimed by the Greens (if Labour has a weak candiate or no candiate), if you are going under the assumption that Shanks won’t stand again.
No way Labour won’t stand, the vote will be split between them and the Greens.
Indeed … the last 2011 election results for Ohariu:
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-35.html
If we made the very rough assumptions that the 14,000 Electorate votes for Dunne were to fall left and right in a proportion similar to the Party vote, ie about 16,000:18,000 and Labour stood a candidate at least as strong as Charles Chauvel, and the Greens did not split the vote, then there is a perfectly reasonable chance for Labour to take the seat.
Not a game-changer by itself, but overall a much needed boost for the left at this stage.
Factor in Shanks gunning for the seat rather than acting like wallpaper which is how she did. She’s a weak candidate and prone to clangers. And as an Ohariu voter I can attest that the Greens don’t have a chance here.
They’ll put a few weeks of training into her to make sure she gets better
Why would they stand Katrina again? They’re under no obligation to do so, and they’d be wise not to if they actually wanted to win the seat.
Dunne is the longest serving MP in Parliament. Why would Ohariu want to replace him with a nobody like Katrina?
The point is, two elections in a row Labour has missed out on an electorate seat because the Greens have split the vote.
The sad part is that both parties stood pretty good candidates, Gareth Hughes and Charles Chauvel. This is not a mistake the right made in Epsom. (Well arguably they stood two very lousy candidates … but that’s another story.)
The greens and Labour are going need to sort out their dance steps before 2014. Stop stepping on each others toes.
NZers like their political parties principled (eg stand in every seat)…but we also like our political parties to be politically and tactically astute (i.e. don’t screw each others chances).
Which is why we need a proportional voting system in electorates.
As I am in the same electorate for 2014, I would say the Greens have a good chance. I know a lot of people in the electorate who used to support Dunne and give National their party vote (and will still vote National) – who are considering voting for the Green party member who stands.
While I agree that Ohariu is one of the more Green friendly electorates, their only chance of winning a by-election is if the 10,000 who voted for Charles Chauvel switch their vote to the new Green candidate. I can’t see the Labour hierarchy agreeing to that plan.
Point is, if both Labour and the Greens strongly contest the by-election, National will win it. As CV says, someone has to sort out the dance card.
These Ohariu voter like those in Espom, the 7 Maori seats and previously those voters in Jim Anderton’s old seat do vote differently from other electorates. The system allows for it.
I know many voters in Ohariu. Its not about voting for Dunne but if they are National voters they are able to have two effective votes. Just look at the 2011 numbers from RedLogix – 16k-18k Nats party & 6k electorates votes. This doesn’t make logical sense unless you say the National voters are really getting a 2:1 deal.
Something to consider – if the MMP rules translated the electorate vote into list % then Dunne and Banks as MP’s would never have happen.
My thinking is that Ohariu is a rather centrist if you go just by the party vote results. This is confirmed by the fact that Dunne who has positioned himself as totally centrist has been able to hold the Electorate seat for so very long.
My reasoning is this:
If Labour put up a decent candidate then they should be able to get at least the same 10,000 people who voted for Charles Chavel to vote Labour again. The same for the 7,000 people who voted for Katrina Shanks.
The 14,000 people who voted for Peter Dunne will need to find a new candidate, and I’m assuming they will fall roughly (14,000 * 16,000/37,000) = 6,000 to Labour giving a total of around (10,000 + 6,000) = 16,000.
National get (14,000 *18,000/37,000) = 8,000 giving a total of (7,000 + 8,000) = 15,000.
That’s a game on contest …. assuming that the Greens don’t split the vote again.
I don’t see National getting 15,000. If Dunne doesn’t run, most of those who voted Dunne just won’t vote. There is little interest among most Dunne voters to change to someone else. National just sits in their office, and has done nothing for the electorate. Commentators are dreaming if they think it is an easy win for National.
Agree that it is not as clear cut, especially the OB electorate is centrist, smart and there can be a tendency to vote during a by-election to send a particular message to the government of the day.
kiwicommie, there are no Dunne supporters.
To suggest that the 14000 who voted Dunne in 2011 can be split back into National & Labour on a pro ratio basis does not make sense.
If those 14000 voters wanted Labour in 2011 they would not have voted Dunne. Everyone in the Ohariu electorate understand that voting Dunne was getting an extra seat for Key.
Those voters will go back to (1) National or (2) a 3rd party. What I saying is that Labour reached its peak Ohariu vote in 2011 – maybe in a by-election they may pick up another 1k.
As I stated before the voters in Ohariu/Espom/Maori seats are 2 for 1 voters.
Everyone in the Ohariu electorate understand that voting Dunne was getting an extra seat for Key.
Not quite … everyone understood that a vote for Dunne was gaining an electorate seat for whoever formed the government.. If Goff had won (and the 2011 election was contrary to popular sentiment a very close run) … then Dunne would have been a Minister in a Labour/Green coalition government.
Ok, just had a look at the 1993 electoral law, and this is my interpretation of how the situation with the MaoriP above would be resolved.
The law seems to hinge on the way in which the person creating the vacancy was elected to Parliament. If the MP has left and they were elected from the list, then the next list candidate for that party will take their place (we see this commonly enough). If the MP has left and they were an electorate representative, then the person that wins the by-election replaces them, regardless of what party the original MP was, or the party of the new MP – we also see this fairly commonly.
In my scenario above, all 3 Maori Party MPs are electorate MPs, so if there is a vacancy in any of their seats, and the new party that wins the seat is not the Maori Party, the MaoriP does not get to bring anyone in from their list. In other words the only thing keeping the MaoriP in Parliament is their electorate seats, if they lost all of them in by-elections they would end up with 0 MPs in parliament, despite their 2011 election result allowing them 2 list positions.
In that respect, getting 2 electorates seats + 1 list seat is much preferable to 3 electorate seats, as the list seat acts as a stable anchor independent of by-election outcomes.
I respect your researching of all acts Lanthanide.
However National only got a certain percentage of the popular vote at the last election and that is all they are entitled to have in this parliament. That was the whole reason for having a stitched up deal with ACT in Epsom. They got their proportional percentage plus one guaranteed extra MP to vote for them in the house (i.e. ACT). The same was the issue of Ohariu. Dunne’s vote did not affect National’s proportion of the vote. National by proportionality are only entitled to X number of members of parliament. The number of ELECTORATE MP’s has no bearing on the proportionality – the difference being made of LIST MP’s. If Dunne goes, National’s proportionality does not change. They simply get another ELECTORATE MP. (if they win Ohariu) and they cannot have extra respresentation beyond their proportion of the last election.
If National win the by-election, they don’t lose a list MP.
Party A (United) loses a seat, Party B (National) gains a seat. The relationship between the parties is irrelevant here.
If Labour win the seat, they don’t lose a list MP either. They are up 1, UF are down 1.
Overall proportionality can change, through the ballot box at by-elections, and then the general election. That’s all.
The proportion of the party vote cannot change in a by-election for an electorate seat as such a vote is for the seat only,
In a by-election there is NO party vote so proportionality is governed by the result of the previous general election where there is a party vote,
National now have their full compliment of MP’s based upon the electorates they won in 2011 and topped up by X list MP’s to match the proportion of the party vote they won,
Should a by-election be held in Ohariu and National win they will have 1 more MP in the house than their proportion of the party vote in 2011 allows, thus they would need lose a list MP to maintain the number of MP’s allowed by their proportion of the vote at the 2011 election…
We can debate whether they should lose a list MP. But fact is, they won’t.
“Should a by-election be held in Ohariu and National win they will have 1 more MP in the house than their proportion of the party vote in 2011 allows, thus they would need lose a list MP to maintain the number of MP’s allowed by their proportion of the vote at the 2011 election…”
By that same logic, the Maori Party should not have been allowed to create an overhang by winning 3 electorates but only having enough party votes for 2 list seats.
And yet they did. That was at the general election. By-elections are no different.
On the contrary Lanthanide. The Maori Party issue under MMP creates the situation of Overhang in the parliament where it is possible to win electorate seats out of proportion to your Party Vote. Precisely what happened in this parliament. That is why there are more than 120 members sitting there. They were elected on a separate roll and that is what has caused the overhang in this parliament.
The Maori MPs in the Labour Party, affect the number of list MPs Labour can have in the overall proportionality. If Labour were to win all of the Maori seats, then there would be only 120 MP’s in parliament.
I’m not sure what your reply is about, because I already said they created an overhang. It seems you’re agreeing with me.
Apart from anything else, if the bottom-ranked list MP had to drop out, then all s/he would have to do is waka-jump before the by-election result (or before the new MP is sworn in). An independent MP can’t be thrown out of Parliament.
So it would be an unforceable rule (if it existed, which it doesn’t).
Good point.
Nope – the Maori seats come from a different poll.
And as for a list MP Waka jumping – quite apart from the fact that that would put Collins’ refusal to adopt the recommended changes to the legislation in a very bad light – the Waka jumper would kiss any further chance of party recognition good ‘bye.
It was also the reason for the recommendation that “coat-tailing” be removed.
ACT polled enough of the party vote to get 1 MP, but not two. Hence that Ellectorate MP was also the one and a bit pcnt. not enough for two members. Similarly for UF.
No your wrong, electorate seats are paramount in the Parliament, if any party were to say win 60 electorate seats but only gain say 30% of the party vote they would keep ALL 60 electorate seats,
Thats where the Maori Party overhang comes from, their proportion of the party vote entitles them to only 2 seats, they won 3 electorate seats, such electorate seats trump the party vote entitlement,
Which is the point being made about the Ohariu seat should Dunne resign and National win it in a by-election,
There are no specifics in the Legislation surrounding this aspect of such a by-election, but, under the relevant legislation it would behove the Electoral Commission to revisit the calculation made after the 2011 election,
The Electoral Commissions duty is quite clearly laid out in the Electoral Act 1993, Section 192, sub-clause (2),
”Subject to subsection (3), the Electoral Commission MUST then proceed, in respect of each remaining party listed in the part of the ballot paper that relates to the party vote, to DEDUCT from the number of seats to which each party is entitled to under subsection (1)-
(a), the number of persons who stood as CONSTITUENCY CANDIDATES for that party and whose names were endorsed on the writ persuant to section 185 as having been elected as members of Parliament…
We’ve discussed this before, bad12, and Graeme Edgeler concurred with my interpretation:
http://thestandard.org.nz/another-mmp-rort/#comment-467637
http://thestandard.org.nz/another-mmp-rort/#comment-467795
http://thestandard.org.nz/another-mmp-rort/#comment-467695
http://thestandard.org.nz/another-mmp-rort/#comment-467724
This is the most definitive one, on this particular subject:
http://thestandard.org.nz/another-mmp-rort/#comment-467791
Lolz, definitive???, the Electoral Commission is charges under law with maintaining the proportionality of the Parliament,
The relevant sections i have quoted from the Electoral Act shows how the Electoral Commission are to carry out their function, the number of electorate seats are to be subtracted from the TOTAL number of seats any party gains from the party vote AND THEN the allowable number of LIST MP’s will become MP’s to make up the total of a party’s allowable number of MP’s based upon the % of the party votes cast,
No-where in any legislation does the DUTY of the Electoral Commission to maintain proportionality become extinguished,
What i notice from the previous debate vis a vis the Epsom seat that you have linked me to is that in one part YOU even make a claim that an MP can be both an electoral and a list MP,
PS, and Graeme Edgler is the definitive voice on this particular question why???…
“What i notice from the previous debate vis a vis the Epsom seat that you have linked me to is that in one part YOU even make a claim that an MP can be both an electoral and a list MP,”
In the sense that they consume a list slot while representing an electorate in Parliament. As per the strict algorithm for deciding who is in Parliament, MPs that win electorate seats are given primacy and therefore are considered Electorate MPs rather than List MPs, and the number of electorate MPs for a party is deducted from their total list allocation to determine the number of list MPs the party therefore ends up with.
“Lolz, definitive???,”
Definitive in the sense that I linked 5 preceeding comments to give you some context to the discussion, which was actually about a slightly different issue than what we are discussing at hand. The final one I linked to is therefore definitive when talking about this specific issue.
“No-where in any legislation does the DUTY of the Electoral Commission to maintain proportionality become extinguished,”
You are right, the legislation does not give formal instructions (as far as I can find) about how a seat from an electorate MP is to be filled after a by-election; in contrast it does give very explicit instructions on how to fill a vacant list seat in S137.
S193 that you are relying on is talking about determining who wins list seats after a general election based on the party vote at that general election. There is no party vote in a by-election, so it it is not clear that any of the process mentioned by S193 or related sections would apply after a by-election.
“PS, and Graeme Edgler is the definitive voice on this particular question why???…”
I didn’t say he was “the definitive voice”, just that he agrees with me, and I pointed out the particular relevant comment in regards to this present conversation.
You may also read in that thread that Andrew Geddis does not disagree with Graeme or myself on any points, while he does disagree with Mike Smith.
Graeme Edgeler is a Wellington barrister with a self-proclaimed interest in legislature and legislative process. Andrew Geddis is a professor of law at Otago and lists in his research interests Election Law and Constitutional Theory. Andrew is often asked to comment on political and electoral matters by the mainstream media.
Lanth, Your reply at paragraph 2, why not just say that in the previous debate you got that point wrong instead of typing out a pile of mumbo jumbo about algorithms,
You made a blunt ‘unqualified’ assertion in the previous debate you linked me to that an MP could be both a list and electorate MP, we both know that that assertion was not correct and your attempt now to qualify it is facile,
Second point, we only assume that section 192 of the electoral act is strictly confined to general elections, nowhere in the legislation does it say this,
Section 192 simply proscribes how the Electoral Commission will maintain the proportionality of the Parliament it gives no hint as to whether such prescription is to be only applied to general elections just as it gives none that it is also to apply to by-elections,
We could then spend any amount of time debating this issue which i personally do not have the inclination to persue,
i will attempt to put aside the time during the week so as to enable me to put the question to the Electoral Commission as to what they would do vis a vis this very question, until i can contact them and gain an answer we will have to agree to disagree…
“Lanth, Your reply at paragraph 2, why not just say that in the previous debate you got that point wrong instead of typing out a pile of mumbo jumbo about algorithms,”
Because you have to look at the context of when I made that statement. I was strictly wrong, in that an MP is technically not both a list and electorate MP, but what I was trying to illustrate is that the point that it is the number of list MPs that is fixed by the general election, not the total number of MPs in an electorate. That is actually the same point we are arguing right now.
“We could then spend any amount of time debating this issue which i personally do not have the inclination to persue,”
Well there’s nothing more to say other than what has been said. We both agree that the legislation, as far as we can tell, does not definitively say what must be done after a by-election vis-a-vis the total number of MPs a party is awarded in Parliament following the prior general election.
I’ve presented my argument, which is agreed to by Graeme Edgeler and not objected to by Andrew Geddis, and you’ve presented your argument.
The Monday morning update: i have emailed the Electoral Commission regarding the question of debate,
Having read the Electoral Commission website i am now leaning to ward conceding that i am wrong where i contend that National should they win Ohariu in a by-election would have to drop a sitting MP off of it’s party list to accommodate the extra electorate MP and maintain the proportionality of the Parliament,
The Electoral Commission website states bluntly that a by-election might upset the proportionality of the Parliament which while not conclusive tends to support your view of what would actually occur given a by-election in Ohariu,
‘Things’ might get a little interesting when the Commission replies as i will be querying the Commission about which specific piece of legislation supports whichever stand they take around this issue,(or perhaps where the legislation is unclear they just make up the rules as they go along),
foot-note: listening to RadioNZ National this morning discussing the same issue, they tend to support my argument, or should i say my previous argument as i now lean toward believing i got that wrong…
“foot-note: listening to RadioNZ National this morning discussing the same issue, they tend to support my argument, or should i say my previous argument as i now lean toward believing i got that wrong…”
I heard that too – one reporter implied your interpretation.
However a later interview with John Key implied strictly the opposite – that if they win Ohariu on a by-election they end up with an extra seat. I’d trust Key’s word (since likely he would have been briefed on the possibility) over a journalist.
Lolz i had the radio on during Kim Hill’s interview of Slippery the PM, my brain immediately switched off when the little Shyster started whining as it does these days as a default setting to ensure appliances do not suffer unnecessary damage…
I doubt Peter Dunne is leaving any time soon, it is very unlikely there will be a by-election.,
What you are saying does not sound quite right,(as i have read it), if Dunne resigns and a by-election returned a National candidate for the Ohariu seat then National under the proportional rule would have to lose a list MP yes/no,
The proportion size of the National vote in 2011 only allows for them to have the number of MP’s it’s caucus currently has,
Winning the Ohariu electorate would push the National Party 1 MP above what it is allowed given it’s proportion of the Party Vote which is the final arbiter of the total number of MP’s a party is allowed…
No, you’re wrong, if National win the electorate of off Dunne they don’t lose a list seat, they simply gain an extra electorate seat.
At the last election, Labour gained twice as many electorate votes as National did in Ōhariu Lanthanide. In this regard you’re likely to be wrong… The Natz simply won’t gain enough of Dunne’s vote to make up the 6000 votes that Labours last candidate was ahead by.
In fact being that Dunne is centrist, his vote is likely to be split right down the middle. That will give Labours next candidate around 20,000 votes to the Nats 14,000.
Of course some of Dunne’s right wing vote will be soaked up by Act, NZ First and the Conservatives when the Greens will hopefully campaign more effectively against people giving them their electorate vote. There really isn’t any choice for people who previously voted for Dunne who lean left other than Labour.
Electorates are often won by candidates that don’t have the most party votes. To be exact 19 electorates at the last election were won by candidates where the party vote told another story.
Jackal, my reply at 13.4.3.1 was specifically about bad12 saying that if National win Ohariu in a by-election, they would lose a list seat.
Your reply is rather about the chances of National winning the seat, rather than the outcome. That topic is discussed by myself and others elsewhere in this thread: 13.4.1 and onwards. You’d be best to read up the replies there and reply in that sub-thread, rather than continue this one.
In any event, your particular analysis here is too shallow: Charles Chauvel has since resigned from Parliament and presumably would not stand in a by-election, which are very much about personalities, and Katrina Shanks was not seriously contesting the electorate vote in Ohariu (actually she got told off by the party at one point for implying that Ohariu voters should give 2 ticks to National). This is all mentioned in the comments further up-thread. I think RedLogix had the best take on it – Labour could potentially win, but only if the Greens didn’t split the vote. Also the idea that a more-educated electorate could take the opportunity to send a message to the government could see a vote against National.
The Greens would need to split the vote by an unconceivable amount Lanthanide if they were to ensure Labour lost Ōhariu in any bye-election. What makes you think that there will be a huge increase in people giving their electorate vote to the Greens when they have campaigned against it, and will they even stand somebody in a Ōhariu bye-election anyway?
In one sentence you seem to imply that Chauvel only gained 13,000 votes because of his personality, but then mention that National would likely stand Katrina Shanks again. A turnip has more personality than Shanks, so I don’t think that will be much of a factor.
I also believe that National would lose a list MP even if they managed to secure Shanks in Ōhariu. The party vote hasn’t changed, and that’s what determines such things. Therefore if either National or Labour win Ōhariu, the government will lose one vote, which is all the majority they really have.
In that event, the Maori party would have huge bargaining power, which many National supporters will find hard to swallow. It will also mean a vote of no confidence is likely to succeed, and a snap election called.
Jackal, please refer to the posts above as I indicated, which discusses this stuff in detail. For example, see RedLogix’s post:
16,000 for Labour vs 15,000 for National would easily be disrupted by the Greens snatching 2,000 votes, which is approximately what they won in 2011.
“but then mention that National would likely stand Katrina Shanks again. A turnip has more personality than Shanks”
Actually I did NOT say that all, although I can see how you might think I did. Once again, please refer to the posts further upthread where this has already been discussed – and I have already said several times I don’t think National would stand Shanks again.
I’m not going to reply to any further comments by you on this particular sub-thread because there’s no point – you’re missing a lot of context in other people’s arguments.
Lanthanide, I’m not wanting to debate other people’s comments, which is why I’m replying specifically to you.
To me there seems to be a lot of massaging of figures, when the actual results are very clear.
If you don’t want to protect your position, then I suggest you don’t make up any more rubbish about why National would win a by-election in Ōhariu.
“If you don’t want to protect your position, then I suggest you don’t make up any more rubbish about why National would win a by-election in Ōhariu.”
No, I want you to reply to my comments up-thread, where I already discussed this issue. For some reason you’re refusing to.
What happened to you not responding? In my opinion; “You must respond at the correct places” isn’t much of an argument Lanthanide. I see no issue with me replying here to your numerous incorrect statements throughout this thread.
Firstly you say that it’s an open question who Labour will stand in Ōhariu, but then imply that the next Labour candidate will lose votes because they won’t have the similar likable personality as Charles Chauvel.
In an electorate that is predominated by around 40% business people, your argument that these people would naturally support National over Labour, which ignores the fact that these same people are likely to be prejudiced against Chauvel is telling.
Then you state that the Greens could split the vote, despite not knowing if they will even stand a candidate and that they would need to increase on their 2011 electorate vote by around 200% to be able to strip enough votes away from Labour for National to win.
When you make such grandiose statements that are clearly unsubstantiated, don’t be surprised when somebody questions your reasoning.
There’s also the claim that if National win, they would retain all their list MPs. This is despite you stating:
This is a complete contradiction in terms… You are effectively arguing against yourself. You also claim that:
This claim is made despite the fact that 19 electorates in the 2011 election had a candidate winning when the party vote was not in their favour. One of these electorates was Ōhariu.
I will concede that personality has a lot to do with who wins electorates, however relying on such a weak analysis like yours, which is obviously favouring National winning in the event of a by-election, is obviously flawed.
Another flaw in your analysis is the fact that you have not taken account of the percentage shift away from National in favour of the left, in which an equal shift should be calculated for most electorates.
Relying on how people on iPredict are spending their money, to analyze how any potential election, whether it be a snap or not, is clearly not an affective statistical instrument to rely on.
…generally the party that wins the party vote in an electorate will usually also win the electorate.
What gets overlooked is the party vote to NZF,in CHCH central they got more then the cumulative total of all the other parties.In this electorate ACT and United each polled on the party vote less then the informal(errors) which a cynic might conclude that you are more likely to make an error then vote either ACT or United.
Your logic seems logical logie7. However it’s all getting a bit too convoluted for my brain cells.
Assuming you are correct, is that why NAct – through the supposedly neutral Mr Speaker – saw to it Dunne’s little facade of a party would continue to be funded?
As I mused up at 1.2.1, it occurred to me in the middle of the night, that Carter’s decision on Thursday re continuing to recognise UF as a parliamentary party for the next 8 weeks or so, has nothing to do with Standing Orders, legalities or even dollars.
Rather Carter’s National Party need the UF confidence and supply agreement to continue to ensure Dunne’s support for legislation etc over the next few months. If Dunne was now to be deemed an Independent MP, this would presumably nullify the C&S agreement, allowing Dunne complete independence with his vote. National cannot afford a possible renegade in this regard. As we now know, Carter’s decision came after Key’s meeting on Weds night with Dunne – with its ultimatum.
Carter’s refusal to release the advice on which he made his decision also raises who gave that advice. I doubt very much that it was independent advice – eg the Clerk of the House. Moree likely from Carter’s National colleagues for political reasons – hence his refusal to release the advice.
The advice would have come from John Key via a suitable mouthpiece. No holds barred… do as I say or else we will see you are the laughing stock of the nation.
So much for Peter Dunne putting his trust in this Prime Minister.
Both decisions were made by the looks of it on Wednesday night. They have to be related. And it shows National’s contempt for the rule of law that they would not worry about a little thing like Parliament’s Standing Orders to stand in the way.
+1, mickeysavage
The outcome at the end of the past week was a negotiated dunnekey win-win package deal.
With the passing of days when the David Henry report should have already been due, and leading up to the long weekend, the wheels were falling off one by one for Dunne, with ramifications for Key.
(1) Dunne’s party problems with de-registration.
Various key people have been sitting on it and keeping mum, but can’t for much longer.
(2) Dunne’s continuing refusal to provide the requested material so that the Henry report can be completed.
The report was due by 31 May and Tory Watkins already ran a story the previous day reporting Dunne as saying “discussions are ongoing [!?] because the report hasn’t been completed”. The report was formally completed and dated 5 June, and handed to the PM.
(3) Dunne’s un-ministerial conduct in habitually leaking would be evident (if revealed) from his emails to Vance.
Btw, in the scheme of things, these were actually only a few emails that reflect a sliver of Dunne’s pathological leakey habits that go quite a long way back.
(4) The personal tone of his emails (to put it politely).
Although this is the least of the worries, it is also the sexiest in terms of tabloid fodder. Commentators should not be distracted by this and should now regard this as immaterial. The above-mentioned matters are of greater significance legally/constitutionally, politically and for the government.
(5) As would also be evident, if the emails were released, they will reveal some unsavoury things about Key and his cabinet. More diplomatically and tersely here, it can just be said that they would reflect badly on Key as PM and also as the Minister responsible for GCSB. Brand Key can do with less damage at the moment.
With (3), a few key things would be exposed. Some of these, taken individually, would not be hanging offences but would be run-of-the mill leaks that would be embarrassing; however, others, and given the series of them, were more serious. The leaks related to various cabinet appointments and departmental matters, not just about the leaked Ketteridge report, but recent matters that roped in the PM/Minister responsible for GCCB, as well as at least a couple of major things that are yet to more fully play out and would be of interest more widely, outside the country … cough cough
Where does that leave us?
(A) Dunne gets to keep the party leadership and his parliamentary status (the famous Wednesday night discussion and then the Speaker’s ruling, on Thursday, before the next’s day bombshell in the lead-up to the weekend.. best to drop them in this order and in quick succession)
(B) Dunne, as the lesser of many evils for him and Key, gives up his ministerial portfolios
(C) Dunne gets some time out to attend to various matters on various fronts and, no, he and Key do not want a by-election in Ohariu-Belmont
(D) With confidence and supply, Dunne continues to keep the now shakey government going
(E) The search for who actually leaked the Ketteridge report can be officially announced as ended
(F) A bit more time is bought to hold off some matters not just of domestic concern but that have the eyes of other countries … cough cough cough
Now, who has read the David Henry report? (pdf at http://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pm-releases-leak-inquiry-report-accepts-minister%E2%80%99s-resignation)
Without criticising the investigator, the focus should be on the limitations of that report. The question still remains – who actually leaked the Ketteridge report; and can the leaker be found, assuming fingerprints were unintentionally left?
The thing is this is a small country and there are still many people who have a higher sense of what is right and what is wrong. It is of course in Key’s interest that other matters in the email do not ever (if that is possible) or do not yet see the light. The emails may eventually be more widely available – it is a question of when and to what extent. At this low ebb, there isn’t very much more that Dunne can lose. It is for the opposition to shine the light on Key from this point …
Oh, and then there was Winston going on The Nation yesterday. Incidentally, he had previously indicated likely support for the GCSB bill and so will provide the government with additional numbers. This is useful in case Dunne’s support does not come through after the first stage, or if Key’s other partners come to grief in the near future.
All’s well that ends well for the National government? For now? Over to the other side of the House to hold Key to account.
Not surprising given that Obama is currently embroiled in a massive firestorm of intelligence/spying over-reach revealed by numerous leaky leak leaks.
I’m hopeful there will be some sort of evolution over these revelations, although I’m somewhat concerned that the US populace is too medicated to really implement any substantial change.
Is it the fluoride? 😈
LOL!
Oh, because blogs and comments may not be read, can someone in the know pass this message to Shearer and Grant: please don’t stuff up.
Pretty sure Clare Curran reads the Standard 😈
No less should be expected from a very proficient, knowledgeable and intelligent spokesperson for broadcasting, open government, communications and IT
😈 😈
Well if the following sentence from her latest post on Red Alert is any indication, I’m not sure about proficiency – grammatically speaking anyway.
The interesting thing is … what will Andrea Vance do next? She must have some very interesting angles she’s keeping mum on for the time being.
A further interesting thing is… we have Winston Peters getting stuck into Peter Dunne for leaking sensitive information to a reporter, yet someone has leaked electronic copies of the emails in question to Winston Peters. Is he going to demand the sacking or removal of… the person who has leaked to him? Doubt it somehow.
It will be difficult to mete out appropriate consequences to the leaker if that person’s identity is not known, not even (let’s say directly, officially or formally) to the leakee.
There are simple old-fashioned ways for documents to be leaked without needing to hand them over by hand/in person or electronically 🙂
John Key should know this and it was possibly on his mind when he announced the David Henry investigation 😈
Alanz … thanks for the insights.
You’re welcome.
To be mischievous 🙂 it can be suggested that even Vance and Fairfax may not even “actually know” the identity of the leaker given the way information reached their desk.
I doubt that Peters has electronic copies of the emails in question. It is obvious from his answers on Q+A and The Nation that he only knows some of the contents. Now, there are a number of people who could have passed that information on to Peters. I suggest that Vance is probably the least likely.
There seems to be a number of people keeping mum at the moment.
Firstly Andrea Vance. Her employee, Fairfax, have made their position very clear that they will not reveal their sources etc etc . Re Andrea herself – according to Farrar, she is due to get married about now, so probably has other things on her mind. And personally, I would like to send her my very best wishes. I don’t necessarily agree with some of her writings, but at least Andrea seems to be ‘on the job’ in terms of investigative journalism compared to some of our other so-called journalists.
edit – that was a reply to Anne’s comment above.
I have just seen the Q +A video and according to Michelle Boag… there was only one person who had a copy of the emails etc. and that was Andrea Vance. She effectively said it was Vance who supplied the electronic emails to Peters. If she is right then the plot thickens. 😯
panel on Peter Dunne
Boag would predictably want others to follow that seemingly obvious path.
The spotlight would then turn on Vance.
The real issues do not relate to the hunt for the leaker (and possibly dragging in a few people as collateral damage) but to pinning down accountability and responsibility to office holders.
Anne – according to Michelle Boag. How does Michelle know who has copies of those emails? She doesn’t. She tried to blame Vance for passing the emails to Peters – but she does not know who has copies. She is a hands length vehicle to get people to believe what National/Key want us to believe. She is trying to shift the blame etc – National need Dunne to stay for his vote in the meantime.
Peters has had many decades of relationships with the media etc – he has many contacts. He knows how the game works. Remember the teapot fiasco when he said he had the tapes. Never underestimate him.
How does Boag know only Vance and Dunne had access to the emails? Surely Vance would have showed them to her boss? And could someone in Dunne’s office have seen them?
I’m bloody CERTAIN of it CV – well she used to anyway.
Either that, or she’s got a sixth sense – which somehow I doubt
Alanz, sooo knowledgeable inside.
“The emails may eventually be more widely available – it is a question of when and to what extent.”
The only emails that matter are the four that Dunne deleted, in my opinion. I suspect that the redacted emails shown to the Henry inquiry are the potentially salacious ones.
William Binney talks to RT, December 2012: Everyone in US under virtual surveillance, all information stored.
Indeed Joe
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jun/7/the-national-security-agencys-collection-of-phone-/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS
reminds me of childhood.
“Those were the days my friends we thought they’d never end
We’d sing and dance, forever and a day
We’d live the life we choose
We’d fight and never lose
For we were young and sure to have our way
La la la la…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y
Hop…hops
What reminds me of my childhood is terrible 80s hits on my town’s radio station, being picked on due to my disability (by teachers who failed to understand it, and nasty children), homophobia in New Zealand, and Aunty Helen helping wipe away a few nasty Rogergnomes. 😉
But this music video, sums it up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pi0xZZr3zk
Dead or Alive – That’s The Way (I Like It)
“You spin me right round, baby
right round like a record, baby…”
(good follow-up Sunshine).
Ziggy played guitar
Here’s a YouTube account I reckon you’ll like ghostie, individual bass/guitar/drum/backing vocals/vocals etc from the original studio masters.
http://www.youtube.com/user/TylerFGSH/videos
geetar, enjoyed The Posies.
Here is a cover I heard on Bay FM t’other day. Hope you enjoy too.
Shes in Parties (it’s in the can)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCg4i1f_oDY
(I’ll Fall with your Knife)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu_Z0q45eSU
within every good man there is a good woman. 😀
Lotsa shark jumping.
https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/343487413668155392
edit:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMR512DCcAA1ra6.jpg:large
The author concludes:
But this prioritization of security over liberty wasn’t invented by this president. It began as the unforgivable exploitation of fear in the days after 9/11 and became entwined in the American worldview. We’ve sadly become just as accustomed to unnecessary searches and privacy intrusions as the federal government has grown accustomed to going beyond its mandate to smoke out the evildoers.
http://thedailybanter.com/2013/06/nsa-story-falling-apart-under-scrutiny-key-facts-turning-out-to-be-inaccurate/
SOME HUMANS AIN’T HUMAN
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rwYiBdoWHE
LYRICS (cool).
http://www.cowboylyrics.com/lyrics/prine-john/some-humans-aint-human-15762.html
(at the speed of the sound of loneliness).
Spotting psychopaths/sociopaths
The rise of the psychopathic / narcissistic cohorts : Key- “The Traitor”.
That’s my read as well, and he’s not the only one.
may take more than one to know one. 😉
Yep – it’s just a shame that Kermit the Frog is the one that has to remind us.
Clip of Winston on the radio saying over the next few weeks, he’ll release proof showing Dunne leaked the Kitteridge report, and some other sensitive reports too.
nice
Looking forward to that …. those who have more time on their hands can play 20 questions … or play Hangman …..
D _ _ _ _ m ?
H _ a _ _ _ ?
_ _ _ _ _ _ n ?
Oh, will Winston stagger-release these for maximum public coverage and political mileage 😉
I’d like to buy a vowel : ‘e’
Just discovrd Nats hav appropriatd that vowl from my kyboard and sold it off!
Lt’s lave it to winsom Winston to xpos in good tim.
winsom, lossom; if h a usful tool h will tank this govrnmnt.
Cunning enough to leak bit by bit to keep both himself and the issue alive and well.
Must be why Mr Dunne would prefer an instant caning to hours in detention?
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/137161/more-to-come-on-dunne-says-peters
The short ARM of the Law
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10889326
None so blind…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10889255
(Damien Grant).
Seen this?
FYI
Auckland Mayoral candidate Penny Bright slams Minister of Justice Judith Collins
” Since when did she become an expert on fluoridation or public health?”
______________________________________________________________________________
“I am unclear how Minister of Justice Judith Collin’s childhood in rural Waikato, makes her support of fluoridation of water supplies a ‘considered opinion’?” asks Auckland Mayoral candidate, Penny Bright.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/8766919/Judith-Collins-slams-city-council-over-fluoride
“But Collins, who said she was brought up drinking fluoride-free water in rural Waikato, described the decision as “absolutely gutless”.
“It [the council] didn’t just ask for central government to make a decision, it made a stupid decision, which I think the council will find the people of Hamilton will revisit for them in October.”
______________________________________________________________________________
Auckland Mayoral candidate, Penny Bright, suggests that the Minister for Justice Judith Collins, Ministry of Health officials, and others who support the fluoridation of public drinking water supplies, carefully read this new study in the Journal of Environmental and Public Health which delivers a significant blow to fluoridation:
“..chronic effects of fluoride involve alterations in the chemical activity of calcium by the fluoride ion. Natural calcium fluoride with low solubility and toxicity from ingestion is distinct from fully soluble toxic industrial fluorides …”
“Industrial fluoride ingested from treated water enters saliva at levels too low to affect dental caries. Blood levels during lifelong consumption can harm heart, bone, brain, and even developing teeth enamel.
The widespread policy known as water fluoridation is discussed in light of these findings. ….”
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jeph/2013/439490/
“Can the Ministry of Health and Watercare Services be trusted, given their proven track record in supporting the use of Waikato water, as a ‘raw’ source of drinking water supplies for the Auckland region?” asks Bright.
“As someone who has spent hundreds of hours researching this issue, I suggest that people read the following document which I prepared for a meeting of the Auckland City Council Finance and Business Committee back in October 2002, and ask yourselves.”
http://www.occupyaucklandvsaucklandcouncilappeal.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Waikato-Amended-ACC-Presentation-18-10-02.pdf
“For the public record, I again state my considered opinion, that as a 2013 Auckland Mayoral candidate, I do NOT support the fluoridation of public drinking water supplies.”
Penny Bright
‘Anti-corruption / anti-privatisation’ campaigner.
Study Suggests Life on Earth is the Result of Icy Comets
Could have interesting implications for the spread of life throughout the universe.
‘spreads’ and ‘universes’. (still staying with the black hole of Kraft). 😀
Always had a soft spot for Panspermia.
ask Aunty Wiki…
Comets and planets = sperm and egg.
ANAGRAM TIME
No. 1: John and Bronwyn Key
Now handy, bonny jerk.
(There is significance in that, possibly.)
For the cheats.
http://www.ssynth.co.uk/~gay/anagram.html
Anagram Genius is pretty good too. For example:
‘Andrea Vance and Peter Dunne MP’
anagrams to….
‘Depraved apeman, entranced nun.’
The word on the street from no less luminaries as Cactus, Whale and the NBR is that Peter D. has an infatuation with the lovely Andrea, as QoT phrased earlier the “ol honeypot ruse”. Might it be that the grey haired old buffoon doesn’t want the world to see emails confirming that his desires involve not so much as leakages as unzipping himself.
Its all rather unseemly, imagine of a governments majority rises and falls with the zipper of an aged wannabee Lothario.
It is quite clear why those folks are focusing on the “infatuation” bit which is actually now immaterial in the scheme of things.
The left and parliamentarians should stay focus on the real issues that matter, tracking back to the PM and the Minister responsible for GCSB.
And if the identity of the leaker is of such interest – the question still remains whether it was an inside job. Even more serious is the question whether the PM was involved with that, even if indirectly.
Really Alanz. We are a tabloid nation, sound byte simpletons. We will forget tomorrow who leaked what and not quite understand the significance and sinfulness of the action. Our Presbyterian morality however will have us judge and condemn scandalous sinful depravity (or mere suggestions there of) far more acutely. Who remembers Colin Moyle?
“We”, as a nation, and about four decades later, can learn from that and do better.
Vance’s role in the scheme of things is retreating to the periphery.
Dunne’s emails, sent in the course of work, courtesy of taxpayers, and in his capacity as a cabinet minister as well as the government’s coalition partner, are still of central focus and the issues caught up with the negotiated deal are of public interest. The mess goes right up to the PM’s door which people should keep on knocking.
And what questions should they be asking, Alanz?
I do. Very well. And yes… that was a set-up. Interestingly it was not a set-up organised by the PM of the day (Muldoon), but he came to hear about it and used the incident to destroy Colin Moyle. It was nasty and the background activity that led to the incident would have been unlawful, but the culprits either got away with it unidentified, or for political reasons were allowed to get away with it.
We can be more; “We can be Heroes, just for one day…” (see below).
Genius M, that so needs to be a headline on the front page of the Herald.
Peter Dunne = unrepented ? sin
Humbug Corner
No. 5: AARON SMITH
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
“The French lay all over the breakdowns, the referee let a lot go.”
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
—All Black halfback Aaron Smith, betraying not even the slightest hint of irony. (Radio New Zealand National news, 9 June 2013)
More humbug….
No. 4 Dr. Rodney Syme: “If you want good, open, honest practice, you have to make it transparent.” No. 3 Dean Lonergan: “The only people who will mock them are people who are dwarfists.” No. 2 Peter Dunne: “What a load of drivel and sanctimonious humbug…” http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-09062013/#comment-645811 No. 1 Dominic Bowden: “It’s okay to be speechless.”
Humbug Corner is dedicated to gathering, and highlighting, the most striking examples of faux solicitude, insincere apologies, and particularly stupid recycling of official canards. It is produced by the Insincerity Project®, a division of Daisycutter Sports Inc.
Poor young Aaron. may he grow up to be as cynical as moi, a less than skilful opensider with a rather cavalier disregard for the offside line. The lad needs to learn honesty, free admission that the game of rugby is a matter of who cheats better, who can organise and get away with the most nefarious deeds. Going by the record we NZers are rather superior serial offenders. They say the game reflects life, move over Richie, Shonkey step up and take the number seven jersey.
Key appears to be a soft-cock though; just saying.
Bye Bye Peter.But what gnome will take your place?
“Nietzsche was probably the most self-aware person that ever lived.”
-Sigmund Freud.
“Every person must choose how much truth they can stand”.
“Despair is the price one pays for self-awareness. Look deeply into life, and you will always find despair”.
“Only the wounded healer can truly heal”.
“If we climb high enough we will reach a height from which tragedy ceases to look tragic”.
“It is wrong to bear children out of need, wrong to use children to alleviate loneliness, wrong to provide purpose in life by reproducing another copy of oneself. It is also wrong to seek immortality by spewing one’s germ into the future as though sperm contains your consciousness”.
“Marriage and it’s entourage of possession and jealousy enslave the spirit”. (It is better that a man not marry, but if he must…).
-Irvin D. Yalom; Author of ‘When Nietzsche Wept’.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irvin_D._Yalom
Ahhh, a nice coincidence. The Archdruid writes about Spengler
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.nz/2013/06/the-scheduled-death-of-god.html
“There are no coincidences” my good friend; I only went to get feesh and cheeps, and there was a book on 20th C History to read while waiting (curry roll too, and sustainably-fished Hoki), so read up on The Boxer Rebellion (whose On The Mat now) and a few other choice tidbits from around 1900. and the Freud quote was in a section on you-know-who.
I wonder if we have Depts. running courses strictly on Nietzsche in this country (incl. all his influences, before and after). Now, there’s a job for A Portrait of The Artist as a Young Man.
Lynn, when you gonna send me my jottings?
That’s quite some F&C shop
rabbit: Foreign and /or Colonial Investment in a WORKING COMPUTER would be helpful; don’t you people know it rains a lot in the winter. 😉
Good question. I seem to keep winding up oversleeping on weekends at present.
that’s OK, I understand, I only arise when I have finished resting, and can still only follow “conversations” by catching them on the fly in the comments box, top-right.
Furthermore, always found it beneficial to think spherically of history and culture; euro-centricism is a trap for small thinkers. Interesting the reference to the sustaining influence of African-derived Popular and Rock Music (and jazz) in the 20th C.
Excellent article, exactly what we are seeing and ties up all the salient references many of us have made and offered.
1st and 4th white-chocolate fish if you can guess who I enjoyed reminiscing over on the national broadcaster this evening.
which reminds me, now this ‘authoritarian-awareness’ meme has taken root, the N/national psyche is certainly a fertile bed in which Confucianism can establish. 😀
Ha! The shape of history and the morphology of civilisations is irresistable.
More and more people are realising that the future they have been sold is very unlikely to ever be delivered. Which means that people are going to go back to things that they know do work.
As for the rise of authoritarianism and imperial pervasiveness…George Lucas already framed it well in the mid 1970’s, with a very fetching Carrie Fisher
“The more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers”
that last quote will give the control-freaks something to miss.
Close, but it al starts, and finishes with an A yeeeeeeee
PROTEST!
AGAINST THE HOUSING ACCORDS AND SPECIAL HOUSING AREAS BILL!
Social Services Select Committee are hearing verbal submissions IN AUCKLAND
on this Bill, from 9am – 4.30pm, MONDAY 10 June 2013.
WHERE? At the Ellerslie Novotel Hotel 72 – 112 Greenlane East, Ellerslie.
http://www.novotel.com/gb/hotel-3060-novotel-auckland-ellerslie/location.shtml
WHY? Only 13 days were allowed for submissions!
This bill will allow government to override communities and councils if they don’t agree with decisions.
The bill also supports non-notification and no right of appeal.
***PLEASE COME IF YOU OBJECT TO THESE UNDEMOCRATIC PRACTICES***
I will be giving my submission from 4.10pm – 4.20pm, then giving EVIDENCE to support the following petition, from 4.20pm – 4.30pm.
http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/PB/Presented/Petitions/5/0/5/50DBHOH_PET3157_1-Petition-of-Penelope-Mary-Bright-requesting-that.htm
Petition of Penelope Mary Bright
Requesting that Parliament declines to proceed with the Housing Accords and Special Housing Areas Bill until the lawfulness of the reliance of Auckland Council on the New Zealand Department of Statistics”high”population growth projections, instead of their “medium” population growth projections for the Auckland Spatial Plan, has been properly and independently investigated, taking into consideration that both Auckland Transport and Watercare Services Ltd, have relied upon “medium” population growth projections for their infrastructural asset management plans.
Petition number: 2011/64
Presented by: Holly Walker
Date presented: 30 May 2013
Referred to: Social Services Committee
___________________________________________________________________
MORE BACKGROUND INFORMATION:
http://www.occupyaucklandvsaucklandcouncilappeal.org.nz/?page_id=137
Penny Bright
2013 Auckland Mayoral candidate
From the Perch
Love the late night musings comments/quotes on/from Nietzsche and Lucas…..from Ghostrider and Viper…very poetic and thought provoking…water from deep springs….. food for thought! Thanx
chirpy chirpy cheep cheep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSNSTerj2Kc
😀
It is a pleasure to serve
thankyou…
Winnie loved it too….chirpy , chirpy, cheep , cheep
…and he knows all about serving……for a bloody good stir
On the subject of Civilisation
Saint-Exupery “wanted to make certain that human life and landscape be framed as much by the poetics of arts -and -letters humanism as by Cartesian science” (Edmunds V Bunkse, ‘Saint -Exupery’s Geography Lesson: Art and Science in the Creation and Cultivation of Landscape Values’. Annals American Geographers)
“I dont care if I am killed in the war. But what will remain of what I have loved?….What is valuable is a certain ordering of things. Civilization is an invisible tie, because it has to do not with things but with the invisible ties that join one thing to another in a particular way. Civilization is an invisible tie, because it is not to do with things but with the invisible ties that join one thing to another in a particular way.” ( Saint-Exupery shortly before his last mission over France)