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6:00 am, January 10th, 2021 - 50 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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So a coalition of the Duck Dynasty, Jamiroquai and Dominos Pizza delivery kids almost bought down the largest military might in the world. A journalist I heard reporting from in there said the place absolutely stunk of dope and he was constantly being offered a joint. Looking at the eyes on some of the participants I think it should be called the Oxy and Ice Isurrection bought to you by Weed.
Maybe we dodged a bullet when the referendum failed!
[Fixed same typo in e-mail again]
What a joke.
We need to properly fund our Navy and warn the Russian next time we'll arrest the vessel and if it refuses to be boarded, we'll sink it.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/300197745/russia-and-nz-in-knock-out-brawl-over-fishing-vessel-in-protected-antarctic-waters
Except its not very funny
"Some current and former members of the U.S. military are now calling attention to the crisis of illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, known as IUU, framing it as a matter of war and peace. Retired Adm. James G. Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, has warned that large-scale industrial and unsustainable fishing is a serious maritime security threat. A recent article in the U.S. Naval Institute’s Proceedings Magazine warns that “if cooperation cannot be achieved [to manage the growing IUU fishing problem], the United States should prepare for a global fish war.” These are powerful messages from those charged with protecting the United States and its interests around the world."
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/23177/the-next-resource-war-may-be-over-illegal-fishing-is-the-u-s-ready
Conflict over diminishing resources is what humans have done since forever….as Malthus noted
Yes, and the state of our Navy ought to be a national scandal and a matter in urgent need of remediation.
High attrition and chronic skills shortages means we have two aging frigates with barely enough sailors to fully crew one of them to combat readiness, ships spending long periods in harbour due to manning issues, while the RNZN's poor spending of limited funds (Politicians in NZ largely leave the purchasing decisions to public sector technocrats. The NZDF has a very poor procurement record, look at the EH-101 helicopters, the P-8 purchase and the money wasted on the LAVs) means that the four inshore patrol vessels that only came into service in 2009 have basically been a giant waste of public money, pretty much just swinging on the anchor since around 2012.
The inshore patrol craft – for fishery and SAR work were a sound idea – but overcomplicated and under-utilized by a military with all its dreams offshore. They were needed to replace the old patrol boats – things like the Moa – which were from 1960 or so, and couldn't keep up with even pedestrian fishing boats.
The fisheries protection vacuum attracts dishonest operators like the Russians, and their klepto-state certainly won't keep them in line for us. Nor will China – as the rogue fleet off the Galapagos demonstrates.
It might do to reform the navy in fact – we haven’t projected appreciable blue water power in nearly a century – our needs are a littoral force, not a distant water one.
Expanded Coast Guard it is.
And a separate relief/logistical support force for disaster relief – should include a couple of unmodified freighters, a medical support/supply vessel, and something that can accommodate a military force or evacuees. They're scrapping cruise ships at the moment – it'd be a good time to pick up a personnel ship with 20-30 years of life left in it.
Given the general state of world affairs I suspect we might have to accept it isn't going to be an either/or choice – but rather we'll just have to pony up and get both i.e. two-four new frigates plus two-four additional fisheries protection cutters, for a total of five-six new ships.
It might do to reform the navy in fact – we haven’t projected appreciable blue water power in nearly a century – our needs are a littoral force, not a distant water one.
New Zealand has projected a Blue Water Task Force and that was only just recently about 21yrs to East Timor under INTERFET in Sep99 and later under the a UN Peacekeeping Mandate. Both missions were under a Chap 6 or depending on what paper and or a book a Chap7 Mission.
The NZG of the day deployed:
1 Type 12 Frigate, the RNZN would've deployed the Wellington hadn't been for the NZG of the day and its NeoCon Lib mates in Treasury forcing the RNZN to de-store prematurely as a cost saving measure.
1 ANZAC Frigate
1 Fleet Support Tanker and
1 Mine Counter measure/ Dive Support Ship
This deployment also included members from the Maritime Support Group to support the Ships Masters of the MN Ships taken up from Trade and members from RNZN HQ's to be embedded into key areas including Command Positions with INTERFET HQ/ Naval Task Force HQ and the various Flag Ships.
The RNZN supported the NZBATT1 Amphibious Landing in Suai, which the NZ Army hasn't done since 3NZ Div was in the Solly's during WW2 and the landing in Suai went tits up btw. NZ was very very lucky that the TNI and its various armed Militias didn't make a stand or even a half ass stand as it could've got very ugly.
But in saying that Type 12 made contact with one of the TNI Subs and Intelligence later suggested it was one of their German U Boats first off Suai and later as the Guard Ship for Dili. Which caused an almighty flap in INTERFET HQ all levels and back in Darwin, which nearly saw the P3's from both the Kiwi's & Oz ones deploy and including this humble person as a part of the RAAF's 2AFDS would've deployed a SQN minus about 80pers in a defence role as per the plans when the RNZAF No2 SQN's A4's almost deployed to Baucau Airport at the start of INTERFET.
Since then, the RNZN Concept Of Operations (CONOPS) since the disbanding of the RNZAF's ACF.
Is now focused on:
Maritime Trade Protection
Supporting the Joint Amphibious Task Force as apart of Force 2035 CONOPS (one of the major lessons or lessons re-learnt by the NZDF during INTERFET)
MCM/ Dive Support
Antarctic Support and
Resource Management (a bit hard when the OPV's are no longer fit for purpose for Southern Ocean Patrols due to CC and under funding)
Those Type 12s always over-performed.
Probably been the best warship ever design and the best warship that NZ has ever had in service even though they had short legs until the Endeavour entered service.
Maf was, and remains, extremely skeptical of the Navy's ability and commitment to fisheries resource protection.
That said, aerial surveillance simply can't get the job done – vessels like the recent Russian need to be stopped and boarded. The failure to seize and prosecute only means we'll see more of this crap.
Rather than run extended patrols through the whole of the southern ocean, which demands exceptionally seaworthy and possibly ice hardened vessels, we would do better with a station with a couple of chase boats handy to the resource we mean to protect. This is more along the lines of a coastguard cutter role than a place for frigates. Canada has run cold water fisheries patrols for decades – they don't use frigates.
Mind, there's a mort of fishery protection work going undone in our coastal waters.
The problem facing MAF or whatever its these days and in the RNZN particular is the cuts to the operation budget of both Fisheries enforcement budget and operational budget for the Navy's sailing days for Fisheries patrol/ enforcement within NZ Waters. Now this could be seen a political cronyism or nepotism of certain NZ politcial parties at reducing budgets.
The other is also RNZN manning has also played a role in this as well with branches within the RNZN below levels to actually sustain vessels at sea, with the usual rest to work ratio that members can do their Professional Development courses and that old chestnut that the NZDF face every time in NZ Pay & Conditions compared to other public servants who get a regular pay rise than those employed within the MoD or NZDF.
Finally the other problem now facing the Navy is CC, which means both the Inshore & Offshore Patrol Vessels are increasingly becoming not fit for purpose as Politicians and their mates in Treasury want to spend as very little on Defence as possible. Which if the NZG and Treasury can get away with it by cutting, reducing or deferring equipment upgrades or capital investment in new equipment or infrastructure it will and even then it will be the cheapest option inline with the NZG mandated tasks the politicians want the NZDF do with its ever reducing operational budget.
The Labour/ Alliance Government's Project Protector is a very good example of this stupid procurement policy, where Government didn't or refused to listen Navy when it went back and asked for an extra $200-300M to make the Project work IRT to current NZ operations aka East Timor and factor in CC as the Navy knew dammed well that $500m wouldn't go very far given current trend.
I won't go on about the Key Decade as its not worth the time or space, but they kicked the bloody can down the rd again IRTs to future NZDF Capability and hoping that Labour would cut capability again.
The more diminished the resource becomes the more bold the behaviour becomes to access it.
Was going to do a write up of this during the Xmas break after the news of the PNG would be a base for the Chinese Fishing Fleet which made comment on Ad's post about the current NZG Green programs. But i was hit with a re-lapse of a viral infection due to a funky (a very rare) vector borne disease i picked up in East Timor during INTERFET
https://www.uscg.mil/IUUFishing
https://www.uscg.mil/Portals/0/Images/iuu/IUU_Strategic_Outlook_2020_FINAL.pdf
The PDF version is very interesting IRT to the recent activities of the Chinese Fishing Fleet which is now appearing in our Nth'en waters and it won't be soon that they will start raping and pillaging the Great Southern Ocean.
See also Stuart's comment about this from earlier this morning.
Interesting comment. But the problem is the Navy brass will almost certainly not press for larger numbers of better ships for fisheries protection (i.e. something like the USCG Offshore Patrol Cutter) to replace the ANZAC frigates, but will push hard to replace them on a one for one basis with the gold-plated Hunter class frigates the RAN is buying.
Modern frigates are disasters waiting to happen. The Hunter class is a ship 20% BIGGER than the WW2 light cruisers operated by the RNZN. Cruisers in WW2 proved so vulnerable to torpedo, gunfire and air attack they were eventually regarded as a liability when attached to a destroyer force – quite why modern navies think that a ship bigger than a WW2 light cruiser is any less vulnerable in the age of nuclear submarines and anti-ship missiles is anyone's guess, especially in light of the Falkland experience where the RN’s frigate force was barely able to defend itself from a third world airforce that was operating at extreme range from it’s bases and largely using WW2 bombs.
NZ also under-specced the defensive systems on our ANZAC frigates compared with the Aussie ones. Also vulnerable to simple coordinated shoulder-launched missiles in close-shore situations like the Gulf, apparently. A dozen would do it. Huge waste of life.
NZ didn't go down the Ozzie ANZAC upgrade for a couple of reasons,
1, Was the top weight issues of the Upgraded ANZAC's, which could be an issue if the NZG or the RNZN had to deploy one into the Southern Ocean on a short notice task.
2, The change of RNZN CONOPS from the High end Warlike fighting role that the RAN does to the less sexy Maritime Trade Protection and supporting the NZDF's JATF and lastly
3, Cost but in saying that, thanks to the Nationals who under egged the Kiwi ANZAC Frigate upgrade with the various cost over runs, it may've been cheaper to go with the Ozzie upgrade in the end depending what paper or book you read. In the end the two Kiwi ANZAC'S are still very capable frigates within CONOPS.
It is a long time ago now, so my comment doesn't apply to anyone currently in the Defense Force but this is probably still true of the general attitude of senior staff.
I had a friend who was then retired but had been a fairly Senior Officer in the military. He says that he once pointed out to the Rear Admiral who was head of the Navy that New Zealand didn't need, and couldn't afford, the top class frigates the Navy wanted. What we needed and could afford were fishery protection vessels.
He claimed the Admirals reaction was very brief and blunt "You can't train Admirals in bloody fishing boats". So that was what the purpose on the Navy was. Train Admirals.
'Price of the club' etc.
There is the old saying, Admirals like battleships because you can't parade a band on the deck of a submarine.
You have to admit too… fisheries protection is not very sexy. Not like parading around on the oceans playing war games with partner countries.
"You can't train Admirals in bloody fishing boats".
Cochrane would have – and he made all his contemporary admirals look like a waste of space.
Well essentially he was right. The navy has a distinct ability, to sum up in a pithy statement, an essential fact.
The Admiral was merely reiterating to your friend the fact that it is not the Admiral – or any of the Defence Chief's of Staff duty for that matter – to determine what is NZ's current Defence Policy. That matter is determined by the Government and set out in a Defence White Paper. While individual Defence Force Chief's of Staff will have input into this policy setting it is ultimately the Minister of Defence and the Cabinet who confirm these policy settings.
At that time NZ may have still been a member of ANZUS which was central to our Defence policy. Interoperability with our allies was, and remains, essential. In the 1980's for instance, it meant that the RNZN's tasks included antisubmarine capability as NZ has a large expanse of ocean to surveil. NZ's survival is dependent upon maintaining trade routes across these oceans ensuring freedom of passage for ships coming to and from our shores. Now that the Cold War has cooled off to some extent, today we do not perceive such a threat as it was then. So things have to be looked at in context, and the context 20 – 30 years ago was somewhat different than what it is today.
BZ Marco, but given the current strategic environment, one would say that NZ is heading back to a cold war2.0 where its Maritime Trade Protection is going to be front and centre again when one considers over 90% of its exports and import arrive and depart NZ shores by ship.
Yes indeed Scud.
Just a bit of background. I served on the Naval Staff in Def HQ for half my time in RNZN and on 2 occasions my immediate superior was off overseas on a frigate hunting expedition 🙂 – this was just prior to the the purchase of the ANZAC frigates in the 80's. So I had to assume the Directorship and on occasion sit on the Top Management Committee as the the Acting Director. The only officer of my branch ever to have reached such a loft height to my knowledge. It was heady days. We were investigating all sorts of options, and the thing is – with any significant Capital Purchase – such as a ship, or aircraft, or armed vehicle, the cost of the item is not the only cost. You have to cost it through its life. The cost of manning, including training, the cost of up-keep, and the thing has to be capable of doing the job.
The problem, however, is that you can do all those things – calculate all those costs, and then when presented to the Cabinet – they will choose something entirely different.
I joined the RNZN the year we took possession of the Brook Marine inshore Patrol Craft. HMNZS Rotoiti, Pukaki, et al. That wasn't the preferred option. They had been designed for service in the Atlantic with a much different average wave length to the seas around NZ. And so they proved to be. They were completely unsuited to our waters. Personnel suffered greatly on them they were uncomfortable in anything other than a flat sea.
We had tried to get a hard living allowance for the seamen serving on them but met silence. About 4 years later we had the 4 in Wellington to show them off to the locals and politicians and the Admiral decided it would be a good idea to take the politicians out for a day cruise around the harbour. Fortunately there was a bit of swell running in the strait, and the decision was made to venture out for a quick look. 😉 That was enough. On return we had a letter to the PM all ready. It had been forwarded before. And within a day we had the extra hard living allowance approved.
The Ships that would suit the RNZN, but only if all the StandFlex Modules are brought, as the RNZN will still need to maintain a Utility of Force. Also note this Ship is also forming the basis for the RN's Type 31 Frigate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Absalon-class_command_and_support_ship
For the OPV Replacement for Operations in NZ waters and to the Nth its Northern waters with FOB's in Fiji and the Chats is the.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holland-class_offshore_patrol_vessel
And for the Southern Ocean 3 of these wee beasties from Canada armed with a 3" or 76mm Auto gun and based out of Dunedin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_DeWolf-class_offshore_patrol_vessel#:~:text=Ships%20in%20class%20%20%20%20Ship%20name,%20%20%20%207%20more%20rows%20
Plus two Landing Dock Ships with four Landing craft and capable of operating 4 NH90’s and able to land a CH47 Chook or a Sea Stallion
Both the southern patrollers, and something to facilitate amphibious relief efforts, are well thought of. We should have marines too – we're a bunch of islands after all.
There is some merit of actually forming a Marine Force with the current future force structure of the NZDF.
Do we actually convert the NZ Army's Regular Force over to a Marine Force?
With the NZ Army Reserve Force including the Regular Force Cav Regiment and the Artillery Regiment forming the key backbone, heart and soul to the Army Reserve? Both will be also key enablers for the Marine Force as what we would say as a plug & play node.
The other question that would be raised is that the Marine Force would require some sort of Close Air Support?
So do we Re-establish the RNZAF's Fixed Strike Capability with Jets or do we look at a light Strike/ Attack Capbility be it an armed Jet Traner like the Sth Korean
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAI_T-50_Golden_Eagle
Or an Armed variant of the current in-service Texan 2 Trainer
https://defense.txtav.com/en/at-6 and finally
a Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter in plain english language a Gunship?
The Australians are looking to off load its 20 odd Tigers, because they have completely bugged up the ARH Tigers by their own Stupidity like they did with the Seasprites which we brought off them and with a few subtle changes to Cockpit management and the Combat Management System. The RNZAF & RNZN actually got them to work properly as advertised. Which btw cost the suffering Ozzie taxpayer over a $1B AUD and the kiwi taxpayer got them at bargain around $250m NZD with the mods required to make them work under $2m NZD for the 8 Seasprites. Someone got ripped off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurocopter_Tiger
The Harry De Wolf Ships are the bee's knees and i don't think the planned budget allows for 3 ships? But given the rapid changes in CC weather events and the likely hood of the Chinese Fishing Fleet getting quite active our region within the next 5yrs or less. I think 3 ships of this class is worth the investment long term coupled with the Navy's new Fleet Support Ship and the Enhance Maritime Aerial Surveillance RFI released just before Xmas makes for a very interesting time for the NZDF over the coming decades.
If it were me (and it likely won't be ), I'd arrange for the army & navy to make up a marine force – maybe contributing a company each to start with. They could train with or against each other, and work out what works in the current situation from different starting points – ought to be healthy.
Long term half or more of our army should be ready to deploy by air or by sea – firefighting in Oz might be good logistics practice for it. Working out how to do that during Covid might pay too – simulates a hostile theater with limited contact with locals – and the Ozzies are going to need all the help they can get.
Seems that Russia and China have managed to hack the locator technology to falsify positions of their fleets. Not much chance of getting them to cooperate in managing the resource if they are willing to do that.
NZ has been a soft target to many countries fishing in our waters illegally for decades. A lot of illegal fishing would go undetected. Protected antarctic waters are also a target.
Except sinking the offending vessel gets a bit tricky in Antarctic waters, especially the reserve area that this one was fishing in.
It is hard to know if this is factual or not because I can't see anything definitive. I present it here as a work of fiction. However if true then it would be a very good candidate for a Darwin Award.
There are a few twitter links attached in the comments to the following discussion
On the contrarian side. "That Rumor That a D.C. Rioter Tasered Himself to Death Is (Probably) Just a Joke"
I won’t keep you updated on this story because it just feels like a urban myth.
See also this and there are a number of other twitter compilations.
If his taser was tucked into his belt the way his pistols are in the photo of him, then it would have been aimed in the right direction.
Shooting oneself in the genitals with a pistol stowed in your waistband, like in his show off photo, is a fairly common event, google brought up several similar in the last year on first page.
Plausible.
"I won’t keep you updated on this story because it just feels like a urban myth."…some of the best stories we have are our urban myths
Yeah. This one is.
I was alternately laughing my head off and feeling guilty about his family having to hear this as a story if it wasn’t true.
To take the edge off, I read a candidate for the 2020 Darwin awards
https://youtu.be/CoUJ7mLGFzA
Umm. I tell you that I won’t die for my art. (voted 8/10)
The next contender is a mere 6/10 who does a handstand over sinkhole – on the railing designed to protect idiots.
Bradley was a cheeky lad with a heart of gold, adventurous and mechanically talented, fond of four-wheelers and fishing, an aspiring mechanic with a side hustle selling car parts. He had a good future ahead of him, and was well-loved by family and friends in his small hometown five hours away from Mount Gambier. So Inspector Hill found it hard to accept what witnesses and first responders were telling him: Young Bradley did a midnight handstand on the viewing platform railing.
Yes. A handstand. Moments before midnight, Bradley was poised upside down on a rail a hundred feet above the dark cave floor. In a single moment, his proud alley-oop! became a disastrous alley-oops! as he lost balance and his trajectory took him down into the deep dark cenote. Friends were with Bradley the night he performed an “illegal handstand that resulted in his death.”
The final contender is a 7/10.
https://darwinawards.com/darwin/darwin2020-03.html
Either the world is getting saner or it was a poor reporting year.
Where are the likes of the old days, like the guy who kept a cocked pistol next on his bedside table – and in the night confused it with a ringing phone.
My all-time fave is this one.
https://darwinawards.com/stupid/stupid1998-10.html
I was living nearby in Philadelphia at the time. There was a couple of weeks of rumours going around before any real facts came through. Coincidentally, at work there was a guy in the habit of doing weird dangerous shit in the R&D machine shop. Y'all can imagine the rest.
Yeah some people are just to good for this cruel world…
Favourite joke … the police were going to throw the book at him but found he had already been charged !
Favourite joke … the police were going to throw the book at him but found he had already been charged !
Big gulp…
sudo apt remove –purge php7.1* php7.2* php7.3* php5.6* php7.0*
Then I will try php8.0
The autoremove did the following
The following packages will be REMOVED:
librecode0 php7.4-apcu php7.4-apcu-bc php7.4-igbinary php7.4-memcache php7.4-memcached php7.4-msgpack php7.4-xdebug
I use memcached and (implicitly) msgpack.
Yep. After restarting php-fpm got complaints from the performance plugin. Reinstalled memcached, and we're away again after I cleaned the caches.
Ok – checkpoint and on to the php 8.0 alternative
Cut out the modules that I want.
dpkg –get-selections | grep php7.4
Manually purge the packages with a deinstall (should have done that with the autoremove)
MODULES=$(dpkg –get-selections | grep php7.4 | cut -f1); echo ${MODULES//7.4/8.0} > modules.txt
sudo apt install $(cat modules.txt)
Had to do that once to find that no packages for php8.0-json and php8.0-xmlrpc. Remove them and then we're all installed. Now lets do the alternative to see if that is sufficient to flip the system
Umm..
pa -A | grep php
shows php-fpm8.0 running
sudo a2enmod proxy_fcgi setenvif
sudo a2enconf php8.0-fpm
sudo systemctl restart apache2
Umm still running php-fpm7.4
Ah! modify the php-fpm proxy on the site.
Ok – that can wait until later tonight. I will test it on the staging docker.