Interesting interview by Kim Hill with Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University, on the Pfizer claims of a soon to be ready, 90% effective covid-19 vaccine.
A few points:
The Pfizer announcement was light on data and it's hard to know what the reality is
90% efficacy = 10% failure
the vaccine wasn't tested on people under 18, and probably wasn't tested on elderly people who are at particular risk of covid
if the vaccine is rushed and ends up going wrong (doesn't work well, has a too high side effect or damage rate) it will cause long term problems with covid vaccines and vaccines generally
many people who are normally ok with vaccines are concerned about a covid one and reluctant about it due to it being rushed (25% of people surveyed in the UK)
It's the first messenger RNA vaccine (this wasn't discussed but I'm wondering how they assess safety and side effects in a short time frame).
Re the 90% rate, and the first planned roll out in the UK of vaccinating 30% of the population, the rationale is that you vaccinate vulnerable people and their caregivers first. I can see how this would work in the UK which has widespread community transmission. I'm less clear about NZ, mostly because I haven't seen vaccination in the context of a plan around opening the borders. Vaccinating the frontline workers (border control, medical people) makes sense. Is anyone talking about beyond that?
It occurs to me that there needs to be a vaccine against the hubris of the self-centred, know-all type who talks their way into a position such as a President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Chancellor, CEO etc. It would act against hubris with a steady-on there, let's look at the facts and likely outcomes, and discuss them widely with a summary of pros and cons that satisfy everyone concerned that the point they wish to make is covered in the content.
An anti-hubris vaccine is what should be the next 'great work' from the scientists. And it could be spread by droplets, so if you can get near enough and aerosol the air, it will reach the pushy, one-eyed, slightly mad people who seem to hypnotise their way into people's brains, probably from the projection or transference that people perceive.
Projection and transference are very similar. They both involve you attributing emotions or feelings to a person who doesn't actually have them. … Projection occurs when you attribute a behavior or feeling you have about a person onto them. Then, you may begin to see “evidence” of those feelings projected back at you. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/transference
The double standard is what gets me. Low cost, low risk interventions that we knew about back in March like Vitamin D get pooh pooh'ed because they haven't been through large gold standard double blind, peer reviewed published studies … yet somehow a vaccine leaps to the front of the queue without having to leap over the same hurdles.
The cautions you list are all quite reasonable, yet the msm is largely silent on them.
Between the blatant political biases, the incessant click bait and the selective spin put on everything … it's reached the point where reading the news has become a masochistic act of psychological self abuse.
And the financial heft and influence of the pharmaceutical companies can't be ignored .Never let a simple , cheap, achievable solution come between big pharma and its profits
Yes. The capture of the science by both political and business interests is deplorable. A similar story to climate science only this time the actors are wearing different hats.
If it works it will be the anti-inflammatory effect (as the cheap steroid gives – but not so well known, that same cheap steroid has been used in hospitals for lung/breathing difficulty amongst new borns for decades).
A 2020 public wants a click bait solution. an instant coffee vaccine. Yesterday.
No knowledge of what it takes, no understanding of the myriad, multi-layersed infinite variables and research involved.
The low status of scientists has been permanent, the disparagement and scorning of their work in the early stage of coronavirus very public. Every Tom Dick and Harry even if they'd done no science in high school or past their second year there, suddenly knew more about something experts had spent their lives immersed in
Now though we want them to magically click their fingers and save us.
I say, "Start by saving your fucking selves (and others) by doing some cheap, easy basic things. It ain't virological and epidemiological science."
I think this is a good article about the vaccine and quotes one of our leading experts in the field. It explains why 90% effectiveness is high and how that works.
I think there is a danger of fuelling anti vaccination sentiment and this isn't helpful at the moment
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies. This is how medical science works and I am grateful for it.
Of course if leaders of the world had used the behavioural strategies available to control an infection like Covid 19 and the populace had of adopted these strategies, then the pandemic would be on the wane. Leaders of the world are clearly very imperfect and have ignored the science. The general public are also imperfect, e.g people drinking at bars on Ponsonby Road last night without social distancing when there is currently Covid in the community. FFS. I cannot understand why people would do this, but then that is just me.
How about we all start feeling grateful there is a vaccine? Small Pox, measles etc have either been eradicated or controlled by vaccines. And do all the right things to fight the virus before it is rolled out. The use of the Covid tracer app is frankly woeful……
What is the answer to 'frankly woeful' use of the Covid tracer app? Is that use and that App better than nothing – and it is just one small thing in our approaches?
There has already been discussion about how the app doesn't work on a number of devices we already have. Therefore the thinking goes, we should buy new devices. That costs money and the people that are doing work of great value against Covid are not usually those with good incomes and resources. Solution – develop a new multi-platform? app or add-on that will work in present cellphones etc. Or make new cellphones available free to those who need them.
It seems that we are running out of steam for coping with outcomes. Once something is designed, we have done our bit says government and their facilitators for tech. If it doesn't work it's SEP.
And gummint remember, we are basically a poor country, so don't look at the real estate smiles for a measure, look at the large number of no-estate citizens. We talk about 'punching above our weight?', actually it means the bodies of NZ sinking slowly and the hands apparently punching are actually a gesture of a cry for help.
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies.
Which is well and good, but it's not like Vitamin D is a novel and unknown substance. It's well understood, has known benefits, and cases of toxic overdose are extremely rare. Countries like Sweden have already been adding it to some foods, albeit at relatively low levels, for many years now. They plan on on increasing it now.
The biggest problem, I'd suggest, is that it's so very cheap.
Those taking aspirin did well when infected with the coronavirus. Similar to those who had good levels of Vitamin D – presumably in mitigating problems caused by the illness – no clots etc.
Vitamin D – "very cheap", easy to get, widely touted in the msm as a potential "game changer" in the fight against COVID-19 (even the esteemed Dr Fauci takes it), etc., etc.
Over the last month the global number of active cases of COVID-19 has increased from 8.5 million to 15 million. IMHO the "biggest problem" is that civilisation is in the grip of a rapidly spreading pandemic. As long as taking vit. D supplements (in the safe range) doesn't compromise other common sense measures (physical distancing, hygiene, border controls, track and trace) to limit COVID spread, then what's not to like? Just don't forget about zinc (also in safe quantities):
Folic acid (a vitamin B) and fluoride are cheap too and have known health benefits with good safety profiles. There’s more to it than just simple economic arguments, there always is.
I know what happened with thalidomide and how people had to fight the drug company. Not just the drug company but the Ministry of Health. I have a lot of time for your views on health agencies and the delivery of services.
I agree unethical to give the vaccine to pregnant women. There may even be a window period prior to conceiving which is unsafe.
That was in 1961/62. It was developed for morning sickness. Given that birth defects were not immediately obvious it is understandable that there was a lag. I’d think that most civil servants working in MoH (DoH, as it was known then) at the time have moved on.
The philosophy of science/medicine of the time was the problem though, not the lack of ability to see the future, and I still see science is god* people arguing that the damage that gets done is the price we pay for the good science brings.
*science as the one true way and better than all other ways of knowing sometimes to the exclusion of other ways of knowing.
Sure, it was a disaster but to somehow connect that example to a Covid-19 vaccine and MoH in present time seems plain fear mongering, IMO. There are risks, always will be, and these need to be managed properly. If we’re saying that we cannot trust the makers of that or any other Covid-19 vaccine, that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us, then we might as well stay in bed and wait for the end of time to come and get (take?) us. I struggle with outbursts of hyper-emotional theatrics and histrionics and self-reinforcing loops of fear, distrust, and paranoia. Let’s talk these things through calmly, kindly, and respectfully.
that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us,
You might want to Google "Ministry of Health Disability Support Services neglect and abuse.."
There's plenty of reading, and yes, some of it is "emotional" because that's how people get when a government organisation charged with providing care and support to a particular group of citizens fails. Time and fucking time again.
And if you think some of us are locked into this cycle of paranoia and distrust…you ought to have been sitting in various legal venues over the past two decades and listened how our beloved Crown Law argued the case against disabled New Zealanders and their families. This might give you some idea.
But to have a Crown Lawyer eyeball you in court and spew their bile…a whole new and novel experience. I wouldn't piss on any of them if they were on fire.
This is the Ministry of Health…charged with providing tax payer funded health and disability services and they treat citizens like so much worthless shit….
…and Crown Law…charged with ensuring New Zealand Laws are upheld…not treating innocent citizens as if we're guilty.
Fucking oath I wouldn't trust them.
Oh, and some of us have tried 'calm, kind and respectful' and ended up being treated like we have done wrong. That we had lied and cheated. That we would abuse and neglect. When it was the Ministry's own contracted providers doing the abusing and neglecting. And the Ministry lied and denied.
And yes Incognito I have crates full of evidence. I have evidence that senior bureaucrats at the MOH:DSS are so stunningly ignorant of the realities of the care required for some disabled people with the very highest needs that one doesn't know whether to guffaw at their outright idiocy or weep that they are in charge of peoples lives. So we do both.
And do I have to remind you again of the debacle that was the mask instructions for those requiring home based care? They fucking dug their toes in didn't they? Nevermind the precautionary principle, nevermind that Uncle Ashley knew so little of what was required for personal cares that he was waffling on about 'only if you're closer that 1 metre to the client'. What and ignorant fool…but I guess he was being advised by those ignorant numpties in DSS.
I have seen nothing over the past 10 months that raises my trust level in our Government and especially not for the MOH.
Oh and the 'risks'…none for Pfizer, they'll have immunity from any responsibility. They can't lose.
It's not that the MoH is going to feed us a drug as bad as thalidomide. It's that the worldview is still similar. We're better, because we learned from thalidomide, but there is also reason to be cautious. It's a potent mix, a pandemic narrowly averted in NZ but still raging elsewhere, the push to save the economy, a health system that has been rationalised economically for decades, and a MoH with substantial cultural problems.
As for trusting the MoH, there are many people that good reason not to, unfortunately. Maybe we should amplify their voice a bit. It's not a black and white thing, criticising the MoH doesn't mean they're useless or can't be trusted in any capacity. But denial of the risks and problems doesn't help either.
I was looking at the assistance given then and now to the affected children, now adults. As well support to the mothers. This would be ongoing for both.
There were lots of legal wrangles, as you can imagine, and a few settlements with companies. What was the role of MoH in all that and what assistance did it give?
MoH attitude was send your child to an institution and have another baby to fill the void. Fight for disability assistance as well in your adult years.
I do not do scare mongering. I try to deal with the facts. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself with any medication/vaccine. I am not an anti vaxer, never have been and probably never will be.
When it came to legal wrangles any fool could see it was the thalidomide. It took years to settle a case and it would have been stressful to deal with the drug company which had the resources to squash you.
4 December 1961 thalidomide was recalled in NZ. It took the Department of Health until July 27 1962 to issue an official directive to destroy the remaining stocks of the drug.
A bit more on that 90% efficacy/10% failure: it seems they were only looking for symptomatic people, and weren't testing for asympotmatic-but-infectious people. So depending on how "efficacy" is defined. That also has implications for what % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
Another factor is it isn't clear how failed the failures were. The data set probably isn't big enough for the answer yet, but if the vaccine didn't completely prevent disease, but still reduced the likelihood of a mild infection progressing to severe disease or death, that's still a very worthwhile outcome, even if it falls short of being included in the the "efficacy" definition.
Everything I've seen suggests there isn't yet a clear plan on which groups are priorities for early vaccinations. Just vague generalities about front-line staff (most likely to be exposed), and vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled, elderly, those with illness that put them at extra risk, elderly etc. I haven't yet seen anything about when it might get extended to those likely to be in contact with large numbers of people, ie teachers, bus drivers, hospitality staff etc.
And after the outrageous way the MOH decided disabled people and their home based carers did not need PPE, especially masks, unless symptomatic my guess is that the disabled might be a little cautious also. I still reckon the Ministry was hoping that Te Virus would carry off more of this vulnerable group.
UK plan seems to be 30% vax rate, focused on the vulnerable.
The issue in NZ is the borders. Yes, vaccinating isolation hotel staff, medical staff and border control people makes sense, but talking about herd immunity in NZ doesn't make sense unless we also talk about how/when the borders would open. I assume we're not having that conversation yet because we don't know how effective any vaccine will be, nor how long it confers immunity. The rush from my pov is for countries who have out of control community transmission, and no good way to contain that now (although I assume there is a useful strategy in doing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc *and vaccinating).
My problem there is that because it will be rushed, there are likely to be people who have adverse reactions, and they will be seen as collateral damage in large part for the economu. But it remains to be seen if they will be taken seriously, how adverse reactions will be reported and monitored, and whether those people will get support. Lots of shitty anti/pro vax wars stuff is really going to bite us now.
Am also mindful that NZ is bad at supporting chronically ill people, and I haven't seen anything to suggest we will be better on this with long haul covid. It's not just about the death rate and the economy.
Maths dude interviewed by Hill this morning made some good points about vaccine hesitant people, we shouldn't treat them as stupid or ostracise them, but instead talk through the issues people are concerned about for themselves and their kids. This seems paramount now if we don't want a bigger anti-vax backlash.
Yeah all the points are true. It's a glimmer of hope, not a guarantee.
The things that separate the pfizer thing from any other magic bullet so far is that at least a decent-sized trial is under way and close enough to deliver intial results, and also pfizer is an established industry actor – it's not a startup looking for money, promising the earth, and with one magic black box they promise will be amazeballs when it finally works.
It could all go tits up on the cusp of production. But at least it's progress.
Point 2 give me a minor quibble, though. If the success metric is immunity, 90% is amazeballs. Some figure for herd immunity people were throwing around a while back was 60%. So even if 35% don't get it, that's a population immunity rate of 67% when we only need 60% to stop clusters emerging (assuming a random distribution of vaccine uptake). So 90% effective is probably good enough.
Contrast with measles(?) vaccine which I seem to recall needs in the range of 100% uptake to stop community spread outright.
90% across most of the population once the vaccine is effective and we know how it works in human populations, would be amazing. I'm not sure how close we are to that. I suspect 2021 reality will be more uneven, less certain. I also think there is a case for letting other countries get enough supplies to do whole populations before places like NZ (esp countries that are struggling to contain covid because of resource issues).
Treetop – Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
I would say probably. There would be expectations of marriage, and to a chosen person. I have family who seem to be in a sect; my young relative did very well at school developing a skill in draughtsmanship, but got married to a young man from the group when she was about 17. And babies came soon. Life as an adult had just begun, but maturing, developing her own skills, abilities as a male would, was not to be encouraged. And it would have probably taken her out of the group which grows, tight-knit. There are quite a few groups, patriarchal, like this around. They live apparently normal lives, but constrained and controlled. If they home-school then the children are isolated and may be deprived of contact with other children outside the chosen circle, and are like hens being fed, clucking around, and laying eggs, all for the greater good.
They have Leaders imposed on them apparently. And are involved with other similar groups in other countries. The Sydney Morning Herald notes that the early group was started by an Australian. (This reminds me of Jones from USA who took his group out of his country to South America; which ended unhappily in violence and murder).
Those who leave a sect need an organisation to go to, to help with a new start in life due to having lived in an abusive and controlled invironment. The loss of family would be hard to deal with.
There is not much difference between a refugee and a person escaping an intolerable situation when it comes to assistance required to live a meaningful life or to escape persecution.
Demographics are not destiny, says David Shor. And if Democrats want their party to succeed nationally, they’ll have to face that fact and change.
For years, the Democratic Party has operated under one immutable assumption: Long-term demographic trends would give the party something like a permanent majority as the country as a whole grows less white and more urban. President Donald Trump’s reliance on the politics of racial resentment would only quicken the process, solidifying support for Democrats among people of color.
Then came November 3, 2020. And all those assumptions now seem like total nonsense.
Long-ish interview with Democratic polling & data expert David Shor.
Well one thing you can be sure of is that he Democratic establishment will learn nothing from almost losing to Trump, as in 2016 they will blame the voters and progressives for their failures.
Democratic leaders play a ridiculous blame game with progressives
He would be more believable if he spent time showing the disenfranchisement effect of Republicans utterly screwing district boundaries to favour white people against all categories of non-white for decades.
Also he would have done better if he accepted where demographic shifts really helped Democrats over time.
California used to be regularly Republican – but their last win there was under Reagan. A Democrat president since Carter would simply be ruled out if that hadn't followed the demographic trend to support Democrats.
They also certainly counted in Georgia this year (which most MSM broadcasters have called this morning) and as this commentary notes, demographic change in Georgia and other sunbelt states was critical there.
Now, there may well be lazy Dem-leaning commentators who proposed the inevitability of change.
But who would have thought that Bill Clinton would take out those solid mid-western states like Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri – with growing Black voter bases? Democrats would, of course. That's 1992 and 1996.
Then of course there's Obama, who would compare his first election to Shor's analysis and just laugh.
A Democratic president needs luck, and the right candidate, and you also need the right demographic headwinds.
Republicans are complaining that something’s not quite right with the presidential election, but the very same ballots voters used to elect Joe Biden helped the GOP run up their numbers, not just in Congress but in a whole bunch of state legislature races. Democrats had hoped to take control of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Texas—and it didn’t happen. On Wednesday’s episode of What Next, I spoke with Ari Berman, a senior reporter at Mother Jones, about what’s happening in these states and how it may cement Republican power across the country for the next decade. Our conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
Mary Harris: We’ve talked a lot about down-ballot races and the Senate and the House on this show, but I’ve heard a lot less conversation about state legislatures. Do you think that’s a miss?
Ari Berman: I do think it’s a miss. We are heading into another redistricting cycle in 2021, and it’s the state legislatures that were elected in 2020 that are going to draw those maps for the next decade and determine which way all these pivotal swing states go. I think one of the biggest consequences of the 2020 election, which has not gotten much attention, is what happened in all of these different state legislative races.
Can you give me the 101 version of why we need to be paying attention?
Statehouses are important in a lot of different ways. They control voting laws. They control health care. They control environmental laws. But if you’re talking just about political power, state legislatures, with a few exceptions, are the ones that draw districts both for themselves and also for the House of Representatives. So the districts that these state legislatures are going to draw in 2021—which is when the next redistricting cycle happens—are going to determine who’s in control of these legislatures for the next decade. It’s also going to determine what the House of Representatives looks like for the next decade. State legislatures don’t get a whole lot of attention, but when it comes to how political power is distributed in America, they are incredibly, incredibly important.
Some time ago there was a post to The Standard about a radio report saying that a survey had indicated that there was a minority of New Zealanders that supported Trump – mostly also National supporters – does anyone recall when that was?
The radio report will have been about the study at this link. A personal experience of 'debating' with a relative and listening to Trumpeters losing their minds on talkback before and since the US election has been equally revealing:
Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?
Even demographic spread …Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was found in the US after the 2016 election.
Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets.
Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result….
Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.
Nov.6/20 by Grant Duncan Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University
I think I can fairly say I have had a longtime very low opinion of D. Jobless Drumpf's cognitive processes. But even I'm having trouble with the idea this is actually from him. To the point that I've tried to find evidence that this is a spoof. But Daniel Dale appears to be a genuine reporter for CNN, heavily involved in fact-checking, and it’s not April 1, so …
There needs to be more discussion about politics and society and how we go about ordering and disordering what we have. I think we should have regular regional Ted Talks from people who have a range of views and can present a reasoned case.
Not a religious pulpit as such, but people aware of how neo-lib is trying to traduce religion and our natural virtuous instincts. I refuse to be merely an object in a business culture experiment, being manipulated to do something, a pigeon activated to peck for whatever by remote control.
Our information sources are sadly lacking and more frequently have a bias because of the commenter being a paid mouthpiece from some firm, or a straight PR providing focussed promotion and advertising. How are we to learn, comprehend and place into a framework of understanding about what is happening in our fast-moving society? Parents, school, broadcast media – all with bias and tending to dislike learning from reading, thought, questioning and discussion, even debates are competitive, but what if there is no straight-out or easy answer, just equivocal solutions each tailored for the special situations occurring! Instead the preference is for physicality – sports, running, biking, walking is more spoken about than encouraged.
Information, news; the old idea of the Fourth Estate here – I wonder if it is still being fed to trainee journalists?
The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. Though it is not formally recognized as a part of a political system, it wields significant indirect social influence. Fourth Estate – Wikipedia
The press is called the fourth estate in the United States usually because they observe the political process. They do this to make sure the participants do not exploit the democratic system. They play a crucial role in the outcome of political issues and candidates. Fourth Estate – Open School of Journalism
Seymour’s calling out of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s recent stimulatory actions as “Muldoonist” and “unorthodox” (while slagging Orr himself as a “liability”) should be treated as a tantrum best handled by putting Seymour back in his cot again, until he cries himself to sleep.
I heard Seymour and realised in a RNZ interview we wouldn't hear his solutions. The format suits him, he can spray and walk away.
No doubt he will write a book about how he would start form scratch and reorganise things so that Adrian Orr is not in the situation where he has to make the decisions he has made.
He may have done in on his pre-election rounds. Or not. No votes in that.
How soon is it too soon to test for Covid and how late is it too late to test for Covid?
Today a weak positive case, a neighbour at the Vincent Street Apartments. They were previously tested. It is looking like a second test a week apart might be the way to go with some close contacts and to isolate until after the second test result is known.
I have given it a thought if the pipes between the Vincent Street Apartments and the Millennium Hotel are shared by connection and back flow could be an issue.
What is it we would really like the government to do when it has got all the important things accomplished?
I would like fireworks to be available only for licensed users at public functions. NO private sales. Then they wouldn't be popping up all through the year, November 5th bangs on and on upsetting and likely to cause fires and eye damage when aimed wrongly. Health and safety could prove their worth by forcing intelligent laws on this but….
And I hate the sirens we have. So strident, so high and loud, the dogs on the hill howl and I feel like it too. Here are some ideas for better from the inimitable Bill Bailey (I can't remember what that means but think, good).
Did I hear correctly on NatRad that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored and transported at MINUS 80 ( F,or C? ) . Whichever it pretty much buggers it as a cure for most of the world.
It's below minus 70C. Dry ice is minus 78C, so containers surrounded by dry ice will do the job. Pfizer has developed a transport container that will keep it cold enough for 10 days, or up to 25 days if the dry ice is replenished. So it's a challenge to be sure, but not insurmountable.
The ebola vaccine had similar requirements, and they managed to get it out into the field. Although in the end, the vaccine was late to the party and public health measures had already controlled the outbreak.
There is a long-shot legal theory, floated by Republicans before the election, that Republican-friendly legislatures in places such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania could ignore the popular vote in their states and appoint their own electors. Federal law allows legislatures to do this if states have “failed to make a choice” by the day the electoral college meets. But there is no evidence of systemic fraud of wrongdoing in any state and Biden’s commanding margins in these places make it clear that the states have in fact made a choice.
“If the country continues to follow the rule of law, I see no plausible constitutional path forward for Trump to remain as president barring new evidence of some massive failure of the election system in multiple states,” Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, who specializes in elections, wrote in an email. “It would be a naked, antidemocratic power grab to try to use state legislatures to get around the voters’ choice and I don’t expect it to happen.”
For lawmakers in a single state to choose to override the clear will of its voters this way would be extraordinary and probably cause a huge outcry. For Trump to win the electoral college, several states would have to take this extraordinary step, a move that would cause extreme backlash and a real crisis of democracy throughout the country.
The 5.4 million difference in the popular vote was largely from California
Joe Biden (D) 10,757,884 63.82%
Donald J. Trump (R) 5,736,893 34.03%
The winning Electoral College vote was largely decided in five major Democrat controlled cities: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Detroit (Michigan) and Atlanta ( Georgia).
The Elections have been dangerously close elsewhere which seems to have emboldened the losing side!
Sorry Maurice, but your overview of the election results neglects the margins by which Trump beat Biden in the 25 states that he did win, and neglects the size of the vote in each state where Biden flipped the state.
Wisconsin 20,500+
Michigan 125,000+
Pennsylvania 75,000+
Arizona 10,500+
Georgia 14,000+
(as at 8.45 am NZDST)
Most political commentators suggest that the size of these margins are well outside the margin which would be susceptible to being overturned on recount, or by the odd instance of voter fraud.
Biden beat Trump by over 900,000 votes in New York state which is heavily Republican outside of the City. The fact that a city's population might influence the outcome of a state's voting preference, does not mean that the popular vote has no relevance.
New York State is indeed interesting with over 2 million votes yet to be counted.
Biden votes are largely concentrated in the city counties – about 14 of them whereas Trump votes are spread out over the less populous counties – about 48 of them
With about 84% of the expected vote counted the results as at 5.11 pm ET are displayed here:
The expression a death by a thousand cuts, just leave him to it. Have a plan for needing to detain him when necessary where national security is at stake.
What to do with the president would be being discussed. At some point intervention may be required for his own welfare.
Is it possible that the present incumbent of the White House will appear at Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan 20 2021, claiming it as his own for a second term? After all, given the recent post US election insane ramblings and utterings from Trump, I doubt anything he says or does from now on will be surprising!
There is a culture of denial and false hope in the Presidents inner circle. This cannot continue. It is one thing to want a recount and another to not admit that Biden won.
Seems like everyones happy 'bout Biden winning, I wonder if Julian Assange is, we will see what sort of a humanist Biden turns out to be, nothing short of dropping the case against Julian will tell a tale, but dont hold your breath.
Possibly when it comes to treating Assange right and giving him release plus a rap over the knuckles, it'll be like the old song 'I'm just biding my ti.ime, That's the kind of guy I am."
A long thread with something for everyone: Russians, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, The Epoch Times, Candace Owens, Cassandra Fairbanks, the husband of Paul senior's granddaughter with political connections to both Pauls and Mitch McConnell, the hospitality coordinator at a tRump hotel steakhouse at a Trump hotel, Giuliani’s former law firm and lots more.
Shoutout to Deborah Russell and team for actually holding a Thankyou Volunteers Event today to the people on the ground who actually worked for weeks on the election in New Lynn.
Don't usually hear of MPs taking the time to actually thank us drones.
‘Thank-you' events have been around for decades. They usually took the form of a BBQ put on by the candidate and more often than not took place at their home.
After President Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and the tea party (which pushed to slash federal spending) emerged, Mr. Koch threw his weight behind the new movement and its candidates. “We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,” Mr. Koch wrote in an email. “But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we’re coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.”
Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. “Boy, did we screw up!” he writes in his new book. “What a mess!”
Mr. Koch is now trying to work together with Democrats and liberals on issues such as immigration, criminal-justice reform and limiting U.S. intervention abroad, where he thinks common ground can be found. He has partnered with organizations including the LeBron James Family Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union and even a handful of Democratic state legislative campaigns. In 2019, he renamed the Koch network of about 700 donors as Stand Together.
We seem to be cornering Ardern and Robertson. Y'know about the people and reality. James Shaw, of all people, is trying out his talking voice re housing.
Us Left interested.
Why I voted for Andrew Little. Their magic talk for nothing.
You have to imagine how little i care for their moth shadows.
The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
“Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim.Extreme Left Auckland University of TechnologyEvidenceThe ...
Eric Crampton writes – I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes – Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
Chris Trotter writes – Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…Gary Judd KC writes – I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Buzz from the Beehive Local Water Done Well – let’s be blunt – is a silly name, but the first big initiative to put it into practice has gone done well. This success is reflected in the headline on an RNZ report:District mayors welcome Auckland’s new water deal with ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate ConnectionsA farmworker cleans the solar panels of a solar water pump in the village of Jagadhri, Haryana Country, India. (Photo credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan/ IWMI) Decisions made in India over the next few years will play a key role in global ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The Children’s Minister, Karen Chhour, intends to repeal Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 because it creates conflict between claimed Crown Treaty obligations and the child’s best interests. In her words, “Oranga Tamariki’s governing principles and its act should be colour ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. ...
Brian Easton writes – This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them ...
TL;DR:Winston Peters is reported to have won a budget increase for MFAT. David Seymour wanted his Ministry of Regulation to be three times bigger than the Productivity Commission. Simeon Brown is appointing a Crown Monitor to Watercare to protect the Claytons Crown Guarantee he had to give ratings agencies ...
The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. Carr had made highly ...
I could be a florist'Round the corner from Rye LaneI'll be giving daisies to craziesBut, baby, I'll wrap you up real safe Oh, I can give you flowers At the end of every dayFor the center of your table, a rainbowIn case you have people 'round to stay Depending on ...
TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to May 12 include:PM Christopher Luxon is scheduled to hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4 pm today. Finance Minister Nicola Willis will give a pre-budget speech on Thursday.Parliament sits from Question Time at 2pm on ...
The price of the foreign affairs “reset” is now becoming apparent, with Defence set to get a funding boost in the Budget. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed that it will be one of the few votes, apart from Health and Education and possibly Police, which will get an increase ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 28, 2024 thru Sat, May 4, 2024. Story of the week "It’s straight out of Big Tobacco’s playbook. In fact, research by John Cook and his colleagues ...
Yesterday I received come lovely feedback following my Star Wars themed newsletter. A few people mentioned they’d enjoyed reading the personal part at the beginning.I often begin newsletters with some memories, or general thoughts, before commencing the main topic. This hopefully sets the mood and provides some context in which ...
April 30 was going to be the day we’d be calling Mum from London to wish her a happy birthday. Then it became the day we would be going to St. Paul's at Evensong to remember her. The aim of the cathedral builders was to find a way to make their ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Can’t remember the last book by a Kiwi author you read? Think the NZ government should spend less on the arts in favor of helping the homeless? If so, as far as Newsroom is concerned, you probably deserve to be called a cultural ignoramus ...
Eric Crampton writes – Grudges are bad. Better to move on. But it can be fun to keep a couple of really trivial ones, so you’re not tempted to have other ones. For example, because of the rootkit fiasco of 2005, no Sony products in our household. ...
A new report warns an estimated third of the adult population have unmet need for health care.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāHere’s the six key things I learned about Aotaroa’s political economy this week around housing, climate and poverty:Politics - Three opinion polls confirmed support for PM Christopher Luxon ...
Today is May the fourth. Which was just a regular day when my mother took me to see the newly released Star Wars at the Odeon in Rotorua. The queue was right around the corner. Some years later this day became known as Star Wars Day, the date being a ...
Buzz from the Beehive Much more media attention is being paid to something Winston Peters said about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr than to a speech he delivered to the New Zealand China Council. One word is missing from the speech: AUKUS. But AUKUS loomed large in his considerations ...
Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be ...
The annual list of who's been bribing our politicians is out, and journalists will no doubt be poring over it to find the juiciest and dirtiest bribes. The government's fast-track invite list is likely to be a particular focus, and we already know of one company on the list which ...
In the weeks after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Southern Israel I wrote about the possible 2nd, 3rd and even 4th order effects of the conflict. These included new fronts being opened in the West Bank (with Hamas), Golan … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – It is one of the oldest truisms that there is never a good time for MPs to get a pay rise. This week’s announcement of pay raises of around 2.8% backdated to last October could hardly have come at a worse time, with the ...
David Farrar writes – Newshub reports: Newshub can reveal a fresh allegation of intimidation against Green MP Julie-Anne Genter. Genter is subject to a disciplinary process for aggressively waving a book in the face of National Minister Matt Doocey in the House – but it’s not the first time ...
The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Photo by Jari Hytönen on UnsplashIt’s that new day of the week (Thursday rather than Friday) when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm. Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
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Interesting interview by Kim Hill with Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University, on the Pfizer claims of a soon to be ready, 90% effective covid-19 vaccine.
A few points:
Re the 90% rate, and the first planned roll out in the UK of vaccinating 30% of the population, the rationale is that you vaccinate vulnerable people and their caregivers first. I can see how this would work in the UK which has widespread community transmission. I'm less clear about NZ, mostly because I haven't seen vaccination in the context of a plan around opening the borders. Vaccinating the frontline workers (border control, medical people) makes sense. Is anyone talking about beyond that?
permanent link not up yet.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday
Audio link – https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018772793/chris-smith-how-exciting-is-pfizer-s-vaccine-news
It occurs to me that there needs to be a vaccine against the hubris of the self-centred, know-all type who talks their way into a position such as a President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Chancellor, CEO etc. It would act against hubris with a steady-on there, let's look at the facts and likely outcomes, and discuss them widely with a summary of pros and cons that satisfy everyone concerned that the point they wish to make is covered in the content.
An anti-hubris vaccine is what should be the next 'great work' from the scientists. And it could be spread by droplets, so if you can get near enough and aerosol the air, it will reach the pushy, one-eyed, slightly mad people who seem to hypnotise their way into people's brains, probably from the projection or transference that people perceive.
Projection and transference are very similar. They both involve you attributing emotions or feelings to a person who doesn't actually have them. … Projection occurs when you attribute a behavior or feeling you have about a person onto them. Then, you may begin to see “evidence” of those feelings projected back at you. https://www.healthline.com/health/mental-health/transference
The double standard is what gets me. Low cost, low risk interventions that we knew about back in March like Vitamin D get pooh pooh'ed because they haven't been through large gold standard double blind, peer reviewed published studies … yet somehow a vaccine leaps to the front of the queue without having to leap over the same hurdles.
The cautions you list are all quite reasonable, yet the msm is largely silent on them.
Between the blatant political biases, the incessant click bait and the selective spin put on everything … it's reached the point where reading the news has become a masochistic act of psychological self abuse.
Any scientific research coming out of countries deemed to be adversaries of the US and its allies is immediately derided or ignored
https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/venezuela-s-maduro-presents-molecule-that-inhibits-covid-19-907001.html
And the financial heft and influence of the pharmaceutical companies can't be ignored .Never let a simple , cheap, achievable solution come between big pharma and its profits
Yes. The capture of the science by both political and business interests is deplorable. A similar story to climate science only this time the actors are wearing different hats.
Then there is this:
https://twitter.com/SebastianHantel/status/1325484241442975750/photo/1
If it works it will be the anti-inflammatory effect (as the cheap steroid gives – but not so well known, that same cheap steroid has been used in hospitals for lung/breathing difficulty amongst new borns for decades).
Dexamethasone?
Vitamins are regarded by 'those who know' as like the poor, they are always with us but they aren't up to much.
A 2020 public wants a click bait solution. an instant coffee vaccine. Yesterday.
No knowledge of what it takes, no understanding of the myriad, multi-layersed infinite variables and research involved.
The low status of scientists has been permanent, the disparagement and scorning of their work in the early stage of coronavirus very public. Every Tom Dick and Harry even if they'd done no science in high school or past their second year there, suddenly knew more about something experts had spent their lives immersed in
Now though we want them to magically click their fingers and save us.
I say, "Start by saving your fucking selves (and others) by doing some cheap, easy basic things. It ain't virological and epidemiological science."
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/what-pfizer-vaccine-results-mean-for-nz
I think this is a good article about the vaccine and quotes one of our leading experts in the field. It explains why 90% effectiveness is high and how that works.
I think there is a danger of fuelling anti vaccination sentiment and this isn't helpful at the moment
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies. This is how medical science works and I am grateful for it.
Of course if leaders of the world had used the behavioural strategies available to control an infection like Covid 19 and the populace had of adopted these strategies, then the pandemic would be on the wane. Leaders of the world are clearly very imperfect and have ignored the science. The general public are also imperfect, e.g people drinking at bars on Ponsonby Road last night without social distancing when there is currently Covid in the community. FFS. I cannot understand why people would do this, but then that is just me.
How about we all start feeling grateful there is a vaccine? Small Pox, measles etc have either been eradicated or controlled by vaccines. And do all the right things to fight the virus before it is rolled out. The use of the Covid tracer app is frankly woeful……
What is the answer to 'frankly woeful' use of the Covid tracer app? Is that use and that App better than nothing – and it is just one small thing in our approaches?
https://www.pharmalive.com/sunshine-vitamin-could-help-boost-immunity-in-fight-against-covid-19/
Did a bit of my own research after reading Red Logix comment above. This is interesting about Vitamin D.
BTW Peter I strongly agree with your sentiment “Start by saving your fucking selves”
I am not sure what the answer is to the Covid apps use being woeful. Important that the authorities remind us and mandate its use.
I am a small business owner and in the position to ask my customers to sign in everytime.
Sadly fear is often a great motivator. Covid app use goes up when there is an outbreak…….
But yes Pete the tracer app is just one of the tools but an important one if we want to avoid lockdowns.
There has already been discussion about how the app doesn't work on a number of devices we already have. Therefore the thinking goes, we should buy new devices. That costs money and the people that are doing work of great value against Covid are not usually those with good incomes and resources. Solution – develop a new multi-platform? app or add-on that will work in present cellphones etc. Or make new cellphones available free to those who need them.
It seems that we are running out of steam for coping with outcomes. Once something is designed, we have done our bit says government and their facilitators for tech. If it doesn't work it's SEP.
And gummint remember, we are basically a poor country, so don't look at the real estate smiles for a measure, look at the large number of no-estate citizens. We talk about 'punching above our weight?', actually it means the bodies of NZ sinking slowly and the hands apparently punching are actually a gesture of a cry for help.
Vitamin D maybe helpful in the fight against Covid, but as a widespread intervention there would need to be gold standard studies.
Which is well and good, but it's not like Vitamin D is a novel and unknown substance. It's well understood, has known benefits, and cases of toxic overdose are extremely rare. Countries like Sweden have already been adding it to some foods, albeit at relatively low levels, for many years now. They plan on on increasing it now.
The biggest problem, I'd suggest, is that it's so very cheap.
Those taking aspirin did well when infected with the coronavirus. Similar to those who had good levels of Vitamin D – presumably in mitigating problems caused by the illness – no clots etc.
Vitamin D – "very cheap", easy to get, widely touted in the msm as a potential "game changer" in the fight against COVID-19 (even the esteemed Dr Fauci takes it), etc., etc.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/should-take-vitamin-d-stop-19194332
Over the last month the global number of active cases of COVID-19 has increased from 8.5 million to 15 million. IMHO the "biggest problem" is that civilisation is in the grip of a rapidly spreading pandemic. As long as taking vit. D supplements (in the safe range) doesn't compromise other common sense measures (physical distancing, hygiene, border controls, track and trace) to limit COVID spread, then what's not to like? Just don't forget about zinc (also in safe quantities):
https://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Article/2020/10/26/NutraVideo-Zinc-vitamin-D-are-key-in-COVID-fight
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/treatments-for-covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/add-vitamin-d-bread-milk-help-fight-covid-urge-scientists-deficiency-supplements
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2020/10/30/vitamin-d-lowers-covid-risks/
Thanks for the links DMK
Folic acid (a vitamin B) and fluoride are cheap too and have known health benefits with good safety profiles. There’s more to it than just simple economic arguments, there always is.
And pregnant women. This group could be the biggest risk to both mother and baby.
And pregnant women. This group could be the biggest risk to both mother and baby
Women of childbearing age and babies cannot be considered 'vulnerable'….give the new vaccine to those who it is ethical to experiment on.
I know what happened with thalidomide and how people had to fight the drug company. Not just the drug company but the Ministry of Health. I have a lot of time for your views on health agencies and the delivery of services.
I agree unethical to give the vaccine to pregnant women. There may even be a window period prior to conceiving which is unsafe.
That was in 1961/62. It was developed for morning sickness. Given that birth defects were not immediately obvious it is understandable that there was a lag. I’d think that most civil servants working in MoH (DoH, as it was known then) at the time have moved on.
The philosophy of science/medicine of the time was the problem though, not the lack of ability to see the future, and I still see science is god* people arguing that the damage that gets done is the price we pay for the good science brings.
*science as the one true way and better than all other ways of knowing sometimes to the exclusion of other ways of knowing.
Sure, it was a disaster but to somehow connect that example to a Covid-19 vaccine and MoH in present time seems plain fear mongering, IMO. There are risks, always will be, and these need to be managed properly. If we’re saying that we cannot trust the makers of that or any other Covid-19 vaccine, that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us, then we might as well stay in bed and wait for the end of time to come and get (take?) us. I struggle with outbursts of hyper-emotional theatrics and histrionics and self-reinforcing loops of fear, distrust, and paranoia. Let’s talk these things through calmly, kindly, and respectfully.
that we cannot trust MoH to do the right things by and for us,
You might want to Google "Ministry of Health Disability Support Services neglect and abuse.."
There's plenty of reading, and yes, some of it is "emotional" because that's how people get when a government organisation charged with providing care and support to a particular group of citizens fails. Time and fucking time again.
And if you think some of us are locked into this cycle of paranoia and distrust…you ought to have been sitting in various legal venues over the past two decades and listened how our beloved Crown Law argued the case against disabled New Zealanders and their families. This might give you some idea.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/abuse-in-care-inquiry-survivors-disappointed-no-apology-from-solicitor-general/MVITVSRDQGDRTW2N5B7BB5LX3I/
But to have a Crown Lawyer eyeball you in court and spew their bile…a whole new and novel experience. I wouldn't piss on any of them if they were on fire.
This is the Ministry of Health…charged with providing tax payer funded health and disability services and they treat citizens like so much worthless shit….
…and Crown Law…charged with ensuring New Zealand Laws are upheld…not treating innocent citizens as if we're guilty.
Fucking oath I wouldn't trust them.
Oh, and some of us have tried 'calm, kind and respectful' and ended up being treated like we have done wrong. That we had lied and cheated. That we would abuse and neglect. When it was the Ministry's own contracted providers doing the abusing and neglecting. And the Ministry lied and denied.
And yes Incognito I have crates full of evidence. I have evidence that senior bureaucrats at the MOH:DSS are so stunningly ignorant of the realities of the care required for some disabled people with the very highest needs that one doesn't know whether to guffaw at their outright idiocy or weep that they are in charge of peoples lives. So we do both.
And do I have to remind you again of the debacle that was the mask instructions for those requiring home based care? They fucking dug their toes in didn't they? Nevermind the precautionary principle, nevermind that Uncle Ashley knew so little of what was required for personal cares that he was waffling on about 'only if you're closer that 1 metre to the client'. What and ignorant fool…but I guess he was being advised by those ignorant numpties in DSS.
I have seen nothing over the past 10 months that raises my trust level in our Government and especially not for the MOH.
Oh and the 'risks'…none for Pfizer, they'll have immunity from any responsibility. They can't lose.
You always present your side so well.
It's not that the MoH is going to feed us a drug as bad as thalidomide. It's that the worldview is still similar. We're better, because we learned from thalidomide, but there is also reason to be cautious. It's a potent mix, a pandemic narrowly averted in NZ but still raging elsewhere, the push to save the economy, a health system that has been rationalised economically for decades, and a MoH with substantial cultural problems.
As for trusting the MoH, there are many people that good reason not to, unfortunately. Maybe we should amplify their voice a bit. It's not a black and white thing, criticising the MoH doesn't mean they're useless or can't be trusted in any capacity. But denial of the risks and problems doesn't help either.
"Science is a way of not fooling yourself." – it's not the only way.
Applies (in some measure) to all ways of not fooling yourself, IMHO.
I was looking at the assistance given then and now to the affected children, now adults. As well support to the mothers. This would be ongoing for both.
There were lots of legal wrangles, as you can imagine, and a few settlements with companies. What was the role of MoH in all that and what assistance did it give?
MoH attitude was send your child to an institution and have another baby to fill the void. Fight for disability assistance as well in your adult years.
I do not do scare mongering. I try to deal with the facts. History cannot be allowed to repeat itself with any medication/vaccine. I am not an anti vaxer, never have been and probably never will be.
When it came to legal wrangles any fool could see it was the thalidomide. It took years to settle a case and it would have been stressful to deal with the drug company which had the resources to squash you.
4 December 1961 thalidomide was recalled in NZ. It took the Department of Health until July 27 1962 to issue an official directive to destroy the remaining stocks of the drug.
https://www.google. com/amp/s/corpus.nz/chemical-legacies-thalidomide-in-new-zealand/amp/
Not sure why the link failed.
Deleted the space after “https://www.google.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/corpus.nz/chemical-legacies-thalidomide-in-new-zealand/amp/
Thanks
A bit more on that 90% efficacy/10% failure: it seems they were only looking for symptomatic people, and weren't testing for asympotmatic-but-infectious people. So depending on how "efficacy" is defined. That also has implications for what % of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
Another factor is it isn't clear how failed the failures were. The data set probably isn't big enough for the answer yet, but if the vaccine didn't completely prevent disease, but still reduced the likelihood of a mild infection progressing to severe disease or death, that's still a very worthwhile outcome, even if it falls short of being included in the the "efficacy" definition.
Everything I've seen suggests there isn't yet a clear plan on which groups are priorities for early vaccinations. Just vague generalities about front-line staff (most likely to be exposed), and vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled, elderly, those with illness that put them at extra risk, elderly etc. I haven't yet seen anything about when it might get extended to those likely to be in contact with large numbers of people, ie teachers, bus drivers, hospitality staff etc.
…vulnerable groups, including Maori and Pasifika, disabled
Ironically the groups with greatest reason not to trust the government.
https://theundefeated.com/features/half-of-black-adults-say-they-wont-take-a-coronavirus-vaccine/
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/less-trust-among-maori-in-vaccines-and-gps-study-suggests/3K7UXAYC3AAFTED2VER735ZQEQ/
And after the outrageous way the MOH decided disabled people and their home based carers did not need PPE, especially masks, unless symptomatic my guess is that the disabled might be a little cautious also. I still reckon the Ministry was hoping that Te Virus would carry off more of this vulnerable group.
Oh well.
UK plan seems to be 30% vax rate, focused on the vulnerable.
The issue in NZ is the borders. Yes, vaccinating isolation hotel staff, medical staff and border control people makes sense, but talking about herd immunity in NZ doesn't make sense unless we also talk about how/when the borders would open. I assume we're not having that conversation yet because we don't know how effective any vaccine will be, nor how long it confers immunity. The rush from my pov is for countries who have out of control community transmission, and no good way to contain that now (although I assume there is a useful strategy in doing lockdowns, distancing, masks etc *and vaccinating).
My problem there is that because it will be rushed, there are likely to be people who have adverse reactions, and they will be seen as collateral damage in large part for the economu. But it remains to be seen if they will be taken seriously, how adverse reactions will be reported and monitored, and whether those people will get support. Lots of shitty anti/pro vax wars stuff is really going to bite us now.
Am also mindful that NZ is bad at supporting chronically ill people, and I haven't seen anything to suggest we will be better on this with long haul covid. It's not just about the death rate and the economy.
Maths dude interviewed by Hill this morning made some good points about vaccine hesitant people, we shouldn't treat them as stupid or ostracise them, but instead talk through the issues people are concerned about for themselves and their kids. This seems paramount now if we don't want a bigger anti-vax backlash.
Yeah all the points are true. It's a glimmer of hope, not a guarantee.
The things that separate the pfizer thing from any other magic bullet so far is that at least a decent-sized trial is under way and close enough to deliver intial results, and also pfizer is an established industry actor – it's not a startup looking for money, promising the earth, and with one magic black box they promise will be amazeballs when it finally works.
It could all go tits up on the cusp of production. But at least it's progress.
Point 2 give me a minor quibble, though. If the success metric is immunity, 90% is amazeballs. Some figure for herd immunity people were throwing around a while back was 60%. So even if 35% don't get it, that's a population immunity rate of 67% when we only need 60% to stop clusters emerging (assuming a random distribution of vaccine uptake). So 90% effective is probably good enough.
Contrast with measles(?) vaccine which I seem to recall needs in the range of 100% uptake to stop community spread outright.
90% across most of the population once the vaccine is effective and we know how it works in human populations, would be amazing. I'm not sure how close we are to that. I suspect 2021 reality will be more uneven, less certain. I also think there is a case for letting other countries get enough supplies to do whole populations before places like NZ (esp countries that are struggling to contain covid because of resource issues).
Child slavery alive and well at Gloriavale Mbie labour inspectors fail child slavery victims.
Gloriavale,exclusive brethren etc can practice financial sexual abuse and modern day slavery .
Time for these outfits to be fully prosecuted.
What do the children know of the world at Gloriavale other than hard work, the Bible and not having a voice?
Children as young as 16 marry at Gloriavale. Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
Treetop – Are forced marriages going on there and the expectation to breed?
I would say probably. There would be expectations of marriage, and to a chosen person. I have family who seem to be in a sect; my young relative did very well at school developing a skill in draughtsmanship, but got married to a young man from the group when she was about 17. And babies came soon. Life as an adult had just begun, but maturing, developing her own skills, abilities as a male would, was not to be encouraged. And it would have probably taken her out of the group which grows, tight-knit. There are quite a few groups, patriarchal, like this around. They live apparently normal lives, but constrained and controlled. If they home-school then the children are isolated and may be deprived of contact with other children outside the chosen circle, and are like hens being fed, clucking around, and laying eggs, all for the greater good.
There are a set of well-written books at Young Adult level by Fleur Beale such as 'I Am Not Esther' that deal with life in a sect. https://www.penguin.co.nz/authors/fleur-beale
A youngish mother of 11 from the Gloriavale community drowned in November 2018. I don't know how old she was but that's constant pregnancies. https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/mother-of-11-from-nz-sect-drowns-after-falling-into-swollen-river-20181109-p50eyt.html
They have Leaders imposed on them apparently. And are involved with other similar groups in other countries. The Sydney Morning Herald notes that the early group was started by an Australian. (This reminds me of Jones from USA who took his group out of his country to South America; which ended unhappily in violence and murder).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/108473460/gloriavale-leaders-daughterinlaw-found-dead-on-west-coast?rm=m
Last week, former US Navy engineer Howard Temple was confirmed as the new head of the community.
A former member, who still has family in the community, said Temple was appointed the new "overseeing shepherd" after the death of Hopeful Christian. Temple, who Christian had appointed his successor, recently spent several weeks visiting a Gloriavale off-shoot in India, he said.
Gloriavale has a long relationship with India, supporting an evangelical organisation and setting up a community in Tirunelveli, in southern India.
I will read the links supplied.
Those who leave a sect need an organisation to go to, to help with a new start in life due to having lived in an abusive and controlled invironment. The loss of family would be hard to deal with.
There is not much difference between a refugee and a person escaping an intolerable situation when it comes to assistance required to live a meaningful life or to escape persecution.
You're right Treetop from what I have read.
Long-ish interview with Democratic polling & data expert David Shor.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2020/11/12/2020-election-analysis-democrats-future-david-shor-interview-436334?__twitter_impression=true
Well one thing you can be sure of is that he Democratic establishment will learn nothing from almost losing to Trump, as in 2016 they will blame the voters and progressives for their failures.
Democratic leaders play a ridiculous blame game with progressives
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/08/democratic-leaders-play-ridiculous-blame-game-with-progressives/
He would be more believable if he spent time showing the disenfranchisement effect of Republicans utterly screwing district boundaries to favour white people against all categories of non-white for decades.
Also he would have done better if he accepted where demographic shifts really helped Democrats over time.
California used to be regularly Republican – but their last win there was under Reagan. A Democrat president since Carter would simply be ruled out if that hadn't followed the demographic trend to support Democrats.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-pol-ca-california-voting-history/
Demographics did count there.
They also certainly counted in Georgia this year (which most MSM broadcasters have called this morning) and as this commentary notes, demographic change in Georgia and other sunbelt states was critical there.
https://www.vox.com/21551547/georgia-competitive-democrats-biden-2020
Now, there may well be lazy Dem-leaning commentators who proposed the inevitability of change.
But who would have thought that Bill Clinton would take out those solid mid-western states like Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri – with growing Black voter bases? Democrats would, of course. That's 1992 and 1996.
Then of course there's Obama, who would compare his first election to Shor's analysis and just laugh.
A Democratic president needs luck, and the right candidate, and you also need the right demographic headwinds.
^^^^
This
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/democrats-statehouses-republican-control-gerrymandering-redistricting-census.html
Some time ago there was a post to The Standard about a radio report saying that a survey had indicated that there was a minority of New Zealanders that supported Trump – mostly also National supporters – does anyone recall when that was?
This is a survey of Trump support in NZ.
The radio report will have been about the study at this link. A personal experience of 'debating' with a relative and listening to Trumpeters losing their minds on talkback before and since the US election has been equally revealing:
https://theconversation.com/who-are-donald-trumps-supporters-in-new-zealand-and-what-do-we-know-about-them-149424
Some titbits from the link above.
Of the 55,147 who answered the question in the mid-2020 survey, 6,833 said they hoped Trump would win. So, who are these Kiwi Trumpers? And what do they really think?
Even demographic spread
…Kiwi men are more than twice as likely to support Trump than women — a much wider gender gap than was found in the US after the 2016 election.
Kiwi Trumpers are distributed evenly across lower and middle income brackets, and support declines only slightly in the upper income brackets.
Perhaps surprisingly, 15.6% of Pasifika respondents and 20% of those who ticked the “gender-diverse” box hoped Trump would win — above the overall 11% result….
Only 20% of National supporters overall said they hoped Trump would win. But this sub-group of National supporters made up 56% of the entire cohort of Kiwi Trumpers. A further 23% of Kiwi Trumpers supported ACT. So, the National Party is the preferred party of the Kiwi Trumper.
Nov.6/20 by Grant Duncan Associate Professor, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University
In all seriousness, who gives a shit?
We simply won't get a Trump here given the differences in political systems and I am assuming 99% of those polled wouldn't be able to vote in the US.
It is obvious you don’t give a shit and you obviously didn’t read past the headline. Nobody in this thread was joking.
We don't live in the US and who cares how many kiwis support Trump?
He is out anyway and he doesn't run NZ in the first place.
Unless you can find an equivalent in NZ, which there isn't, it is a bit of a stupid thing to try to compare us to.
Having said said that, I know some people think we are comparable to the US for some odd reason,.
We’re much better than the US for some odd reason. I knows it.
Well here is a depressing but unsurprising unpacking of the neo con, war mongering Biden cabinet…yuk
As Trump rejects US election, Biden signals continued regime change abroad
I think I can fairly say I have had a longtime very low opinion of D. Jobless Drumpf's cognitive processes. But even I'm having trouble with the idea this is actually from him. To the point that I've tried to find evidence that this is a spoof. But Daniel Dale appears to be a genuine reporter for CNN, heavily involved in fact-checking, and it’s not April 1, so …
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1327284770984914945
Mind you, Trumps press conference on election night 'I've won, stop counting" set the tone for what was to come!
There needs to be more discussion about politics and society and how we go about ordering and disordering what we have. I think we should have regular regional Ted Talks from people who have a range of views and can present a reasoned case.
Not a religious pulpit as such, but people aware of how neo-lib is trying to traduce religion and our natural virtuous instincts. I refuse to be merely an object in a business culture experiment, being manipulated to do something, a pigeon activated to peck for whatever by remote control.
Our information sources are sadly lacking and more frequently have a bias because of the commenter being a paid mouthpiece from some firm, or a straight PR providing focussed promotion and advertising. How are we to learn, comprehend and place into a framework of understanding about what is happening in our fast-moving society? Parents, school, broadcast media – all with bias and tending to dislike learning from reading, thought, questioning and discussion, even debates are competitive, but what if there is no straight-out or easy answer, just equivocal solutions each tailored for the special situations occurring! Instead the preference is for physicality – sports, running, biking, walking is more spoken about than encouraged.
Information, news; the old idea of the Fourth Estate here – I wonder if it is still being fed to trainee journalists?
The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. Though it is not formally recognized as a part of a political system, it wields significant indirect social influence. Fourth Estate – Wikipedia
The press is called the fourth estate in the United States usually because they observe the political process. They do this to make sure the participants do not exploit the democratic system. They play a crucial role in the outcome of political issues and candidates. Fourth Estate – Open School of Journalism
You're soaking in it.
That's why my hands are so soft and gentle though touching facts hot and hard to face.
Gordon Campbell wants someone to sing a soothing lullaby to overheated David Seymour.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2011/S00075/on-adrian-orrs-lending-scheme-the-collins-reshuffle-and-the-trump-coup.htm
Seymour’s calling out of Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr’s recent stimulatory actions as “Muldoonist” and “unorthodox” (while slagging Orr himself as a “liability”) should be treated as a tantrum best handled by putting Seymour back in his cot again, until he cries himself to sleep.
I heard Seymour and realised in a RNZ interview we wouldn't hear his solutions. The format suits him, he can spray and walk away.
No doubt he will write a book about how he would start form scratch and reorganise things so that Adrian Orr is not in the situation where he has to make the decisions he has made.
He may have done in on his pre-election rounds. Or not. No votes in that.
The long arm of the law is on it's way.
https://twitter.com/MartynMcL/status/1326916581524377600
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1326917694642335746.html
What the Scots think of Donald:
Been posted many times before, but it just never gets old:
How soon is it too soon to test for Covid and how late is it too late to test for Covid?
Today a weak positive case, a neighbour at the Vincent Street Apartments. They were previously tested. It is looking like a second test a week apart might be the way to go with some close contacts and to isolate until after the second test result is known.
I have given it a thought if the pipes between the Vincent Street Apartments and the Millennium Hotel are shared by connection and back flow could be an issue.
What is it we would really like the government to do when it has got all the important things accomplished?
I would like fireworks to be available only for licensed users at public functions. NO private sales. Then they wouldn't be popping up all through the year, November 5th bangs on and on upsetting and likely to cause fires and eye damage when aimed wrongly. Health and safety could prove their worth by forcing intelligent laws on this but….
And I hate the sirens we have. So strident, so high and loud, the dogs on the hill howl and I feel like it too. Here are some ideas for better from the inimitable Bill Bailey (I can't remember what that means but think, good).
Did I hear correctly on NatRad that the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored and transported at MINUS 80 ( F,or C? ) . Whichever it pretty much buggers it as a cure for most of the world.
-60 c i believe.
Bit of a challenge.
That's what tuna are frozen at – doable for good enough reasons.
It's below minus 70C. Dry ice is minus 78C, so containers surrounded by dry ice will do the job. Pfizer has developed a transport container that will keep it cold enough for 10 days, or up to 25 days if the dry ice is replenished. So it's a challenge to be sure, but not insurmountable.
The ebola vaccine had similar requirements, and they managed to get it out into the field. Although in the end, the vaccine was late to the party and public health measures had already controlled the outbreak.
https://time.com/5911543/pfizer-vaccine-cold-storage/
Thanks Andre.
Has the conniving fool in the White House made his intentions clear yet?
Is the media thinking everything is ok now?
No
https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1327335742843084802?s=20
No, but still…..
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/13/can-donald-trump-stay-in-office-second-term-president-coup
The 5.4 million difference in the popular vote was largely from California
Joe Biden (D) 10,757,884 63.82%
Donald J. Trump (R) 5,736,893 34.03%
The winning Electoral College vote was largely decided in five major Democrat controlled cities: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Milwaukee (Wisconsin), Detroit (Michigan) and Atlanta ( Georgia).
The Elections have been dangerously close elsewhere which seems to have emboldened the losing side!
Sorry Maurice, but your overview of the election results neglects the margins by which Trump beat Biden in the 25 states that he did win, and neglects the size of the vote in each state where Biden flipped the state.
Wisconsin 20,500+
Michigan 125,000+
Pennsylvania 75,000+
Arizona 10,500+
Georgia 14,000+
(as at 8.45 am NZDST)
Most political commentators suggest that the size of these margins are well outside the margin which would be susceptible to being overturned on recount, or by the odd instance of voter fraud.
Biden beat Trump by over 900,000 votes in New York state which is heavily Republican outside of the City. The fact that a city's population might influence the outcome of a state's voting preference, does not mean that the popular vote has no relevance.
New York State is indeed interesting with over 2 million votes yet to be counted.
Biden votes are largely concentrated in the city counties – about 14 of them whereas Trump votes are spread out over the less populous counties – about 48 of them
With about 84% of the expected vote counted the results as at 5.11 pm ET are displayed here:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/new-york-president-results
The expression a death by a thousand cuts, just leave him to it. Have a plan for needing to detain him when necessary where national security is at stake.
What to do with the president would be being discussed. At some point intervention may be required for his own welfare.
There used to be a term in NZ of 'sectioning' someone who had noticeably lost their marbles.
The Mental Health Act still mandates treatment for a mental illness whether or not a patient agrees.
https://communitylaw.org.nz/community-law-manual/chapter-16-mental-health/compulsory-treatment-orders/
Is it possible that the present incumbent of the White House will appear at Biden's presidential inauguration on Jan 20 2021, claiming it as his own for a second term? After all, given the recent post US election insane ramblings and utterings from Trump, I doubt anything he says or does from now on will be surprising!
And here it is. Trump’s whole office is stark raving bonkers!
.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-
“Bonkers” lets Trump et al. off the hook, IMHO. They’ve taken a stand against democracy.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-trump-claim
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-election-white-house-press-secretary-kayleigh-mcenanys-bizarre-trump-claim/GUN2QDKR6SM7RHQTYVCAR2ZVTY/
Thanks Anne – the most problematic link yet?
There is a culture of denial and false hope in the Presidents inner circle. This cannot continue. It is one thing to want a recount and another to not admit that Biden won.
Seems like everyones happy 'bout Biden winning, I wonder if Julian Assange is, we will see what sort of a humanist Biden turns out to be, nothing short of dropping the case against Julian will tell a tale, but dont hold your breath.
Possibly when it comes to treating Assange right and giving him release plus a rap over the knuckles, it'll be like the old song 'I'm just biding my ti.ime, That's the kind of guy I am."
I’m as happy about Biden winning as I’m about NZ Labour winning an absolute majority.
gold
(nsfw)
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1326252204999708673
A long thread with something for everyone: Russians, Dan Bongino, Steve Bannon, The Epoch Times, Candace Owens, Cassandra Fairbanks, the husband of Paul senior's granddaughter with political connections to both Pauls and Mitch McConnell, the hospitality coordinator at a tRump hotel steakhouse at a Trump hotel, Giuliani’s former law firm and lots more.
https://twitter.com/davetroy/status/1327253991936454663
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1327253991936454663.html
Shoutout to Deborah Russell and team for actually holding a Thankyou Volunteers Event today to the people on the ground who actually worked for weeks on the election in New Lynn.
Don't usually hear of MPs taking the time to actually thank us drones.
Onyer Deborah.
And we smashed them.
‘Thank-you' events have been around for decades. They usually took the form of a BBQ put on by the candidate and more often than not took place at their home.
Too late, sport, the damage is done.
After President Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and the tea party (which pushed to slash federal spending) emerged, Mr. Koch threw his weight behind the new movement and its candidates. “We did not create the tea party. We shared their concern about unsustainable government spending, and we supported some tea-party groups on that issue,” Mr. Koch wrote in an email. “But it seems to me the tea party was largely unsuccessful long-term, given that we’re coming off a Republican administration with the largest government spending in history.”
Mr. Koch said he has since come to regret his partisanship, which he says badly deepened divisions. “Boy, did we screw up!” he writes in his new book. “What a mess!”
Mr. Koch is now trying to work together with Democrats and liberals on issues such as immigration, criminal-justice reform and limiting U.S. intervention abroad, where he thinks common ground can be found. He has partnered with organizations including the LeBron James Family Foundation, the American Civil Liberties Union and even a handful of Democratic state legislative campaigns. In 2019, he renamed the Koch network of about 700 donors as Stand Together.
https://archive.li/fbLOx (wsj)
Government spending isn't unsupportable. In fact, its government spending that empowers the economy.
What's unsustainable is private profit. Money taken out of the economy and not spent back into it.
Trump vs Biden – the rap battle.
We seem to be cornering Ardern and Robertson. Y'know about the people and reality. James Shaw, of all people, is trying out his talking voice re housing.
Us Left interested.
Why I voted for Andrew Little. Their magic talk for nothing.
You have to imagine how little i care for their moth shadows.