Open mike 15/08/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 15th, 2023 - 70 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

70 comments on “Open mike 15/08/2023 ”

  1. SPC 1

    Migration levels

    The latest annual net migration gain is the largest in more than three years, according to Stats NZ data.

    Not surprising given the border closures.

    The net gain of 86,800 people in the year ended June was the biggest since May 2020.It was made up of a record net gain of 121,600 non-New Zealand citizens and a net migration loss of 34,800 New Zealand citizens.

    The numbers are large though.

    New Zealand's highest annual net migration gain was 91,700 in the year ended March 2020.

    Highest. So three years ago was the highest ever. So not being quite as high is well, a lot.

    "Months since November 2022 have averaged net migration gains of about 12,000 non-New Zealand citizens a month, which is high by historical standards," Stats NZ population indicators manager, Tehseen Islam said.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/14/number-of-migrants-to-nz-highest-in-three-years/

    The historic data, shows its the largest intake on non-residents ever, mitigated by a large outflow of citizens to below the record of 2020.

    https://www.miragenews.com/net-migration-gain-driven-by-non-new-zealand-1004746/

    Do all the migrant workers actually have jobs? No. We've opened it up and lost control.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/08/major-criminal-investigation-after-dozens-of-migrants-discovered-living-in-squalid-auckland-home.html

    Maybe it’s time for members of the National Party to clutch some pearls, rather than beat drums, and expect of government that there be requirement to provide migrant workers with housing. And entry requires a real job …

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300863738/janet-wilson-its-time-to-unclutch-the-pearls-and-start-planning-for-immigration

    • bwaghorn 1.1

      Gotta get the the unemployment rate higher and house prices up don't ya know!!

      • SPC 1.1.1

        American politics – rules that suit the corporate profit, not the worker, more in prison, tougher on those on welfare, promotion of white race nation culture and identity flag patriotism – the prosperity religion gospel, those closest to God have their own private jets, or room on their gated community island for a helipad.

        With no CGT, wealth tax or estate tax, the Kiwi not iwi pavlova paradise haven for the scions of capital mammon. Hark the herald.

    • Roy Cartland 1.2

      I went to a citizenship ceremony last night, and the depth of new kiwis was humbling. I thanked them and welcomed them home, they are more deserving than almost all of us.

    • Incognito 1.3

      Are we currently witnessing the drawback before the immigration tsunami strikes our tiny domestic economy, the small labour market, and the tight housing & rental markets?

      • SPC 1.3.1

        A RBG whose over-reaction to the pandemic inflated the property market.

        And now an over-reaction to employers competing for workers (without access to migrants) and consequences of opening it up to allow a quick redress – including an inability to cope with oversight of the numbers/regulate it properly.

        A Labour government might think again next year. But NACT would not.

    • Corey 1.4

      86,000 new people in a country with crumbling infrastructure and an apocalyptic housing crisis that only builds 27,000 homes a year….

      Golly…. And that's under a labour government…

      Nats/Act will have that up up to about 150,000- 200,000 arrivals a year coupled with austerity because it's the only way they know how to "grow" the economy.

      I love immigration but with our current housing apocalypse, it just feels like a neoliberals recipe for low wage growth, high rents further failing infrastructure and more kiwis in motels and in their cars and a rapid rise in resentment, hatred and bigotry.

      If you're not building the housing and infrastructure to keep up with the population growth, its not fair on the locals nor the new arrivals and is a recipe for disaster.

  2. SPC 2

    IF NACT win, we have Oz under a Labour government – to get FPA working conditions

    A third of Israelis are considering emigration. The ones with the ability to chose where they go as skilled migrants. It takes the term brain drain to the next level.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66474153

  3. SPC 3

    Back in 2005 Bill English released National policy to make TL easier to repay.

    Labour followed with interest free loans.

    Nicola Willis and some miserable sop to partners of new mothers.

    Labour followed with this 4 weeks ….

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/labour-promises-to-increase-paid-parental-leave-for-partners.html

    Did she not see this coming? Did no one tip her off?

    • weka 3.1

      what's TL?

    • alwyn 3.2

      From the shambles that was their presentation of the proposal it sounds more as if the disorganised lot that is our current Government hadn't even thought of the idea until Willis's members bill hit the House. It was her bill reaching the floor that gave them the idea by the look of things. Then they stuffed up the proposal and had to fix the numbers.

      She could hardly have seen it coming if, as I am surmising, they hadn't even had the idea until she put it forward.

      You also seem to be suggesting that Nicola was only offering a "miserable sop" to the parents with her bill. I take it that you think that the Labour Party are being much more generous with their offer and that she should have suggested the same extra, tax-payer paid parental leave.

      The Standing Orders of the House don't allow her to put forward a Private Members Bill that would involve the Crown having to pay for the leave. It would be immediately ruled out, without debate, because it would require substantial expenditure by the Crown and therefore would be refused because it breached Standing Orders. This is Order 334. I suggest you read this and try and explain how she could have been any more generous than just allowing the option to take the leave without incurring any further costs?

      https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/parliamentary-rules/standing-orders-2020-by-chapter/chapter-6-financial-procedures/#_Toc51754717

      • SPC 3.2.1

        You have confused the draft of the release about the GST off food announcement on Sunday with her private members bill about couples sharing parental leave between them. Two different issues.

        Nicola Willis has said her party cannot afford to extend the 26 weeks parental leave, because they made no provision for it in their policy for 2023-2026 (once again favouring tax cuts and in particular landlords).

        It is a reprise of 2005, because Labour's more targeted WFF tax credits allowed them to fund interest free tertiary loans – whereas National blew it on their big across the board tax cuts. And so families and younger workers with SL/TD … returned the government for a third term.

        • alwyn 3.2.1.1

          I don't understand what you are suggesting. I thought it was her private member's bill that you thought was not generous. It doesn't matter what National may, or may not propose to do if they become the Government.

          The members bill, if passed, would apply to the actions of the current Government and spending more money would breach the rules.

          • SPC 3.2.1.1.1

            It was National that chose to make an issue of parental leave before the election, via a private members bill.

            They did this knowing they had no plan to extend the provision (26 weeks).

            Now the electorate knows that if Labour is elected there will be 28 weeks paid leave 1 April 2024 – and the husband can take 4 weeks leave and have 2 weeks unpaid and 2 weeks paid. This increasing to 5 weeks (3 paid) and 6 weeks (4 paid in April 2025 and April 2016.

            The PM has also said that after the election they can also look at tidying up the legislation and make other changes at that time. All National can respond with is they would do what was in the private members bill, lacking any provision for more funding in their plan.

            And to make things worse Willis is claiming New Zealand National cannot afford it because they have other priorities – we are overtaxed bribing voters with tax cuts, rewarding its donors/members (landlords) and for them there is too much debt to afford new spending, except for roads (and fixing pot holes caused by allowing heavy trucks on the roads).

  4. Adrian Thornton 4

    You don't say……‘Dehumanizing’ Russians has backfired – ex-Zelensky aide Aleksey Arestovich claimed….

    “The main thing we did was to allow ourselves to dehumanize the Russians. This is our main mistake. At first we held on and then we delved into all that with pleasure. The collective Ukrainians, I mean. We allowed that to pour into the internet,” Arestovich stated. He added that such behavior gave average mobilized Russians –not professional soldiers– “an excellent motivation to fight.”

    https://robotism.ai/dehumanizing-russians-has-backfired-ex-zelensky-aide-rt-russia-former-soviet-union/

    Quite a bit of that disgusting behavior was/is displayed on occasion on this very site too I would like to add.

    • Incognito 4.1

      It appears that this site does not disgust you as much as RNZ, for example, because you keep coming back all the time. That said, I assume you are still listening to RNZ too, for your daily ‘adrenaline kick’.

      • Adrian Thornton 4.1.1

        I come back less and less…most of the people I used to like on here have been hounded off or kicked off…I noticed a slow downturn in my interest a bit after you showed up as a moderator actually..or maybe that is just a coincidence?

        RNZ needs to be listened to on and off to pull them up on their constant stream of misinformation on geo-politics….and to think they have the cheek to have that lightweight Susie Ferguson actually do a multi part series on misinformation….still I guess it is a perfect reflection of the impenetrable bubble the Liberal class have encased themselves in.

        • Incognito 4.1.1.1

          I’ve suggested to you so many times to lift your game and the tone of your comments but your comments invariably still have a whiff of stale breath.

          I wish I could take credit for you coming back here less and less but alas, I cannot, even though I’ve been a Mod here for exactly 4.5 years this month.

          See you around, Adrian.

          • left for dead 4.1.1.1.1

            Dah.

          • Adrian Thornton 4.1.1.1.2

            "I wish I could take credit for you coming back here less and less"…..enough said.

            • Incognito 4.1.1.1.2.1

              In your typical fashion of selective reading & reacting, you missed the first sentence of my comment to you that was meant to provide the context.

              For your convenience, here it is again:

              I’ve suggested to you so many times to lift your game and the tone of your comments …

              Enough said.

        • Ed 4.1.1.2

          Thanks for saying this Adrian.

          To question the neo-con orthodoxy over Ukrainian is to invite vitriolic attacks.

          I barely comment either now.

  5. PsyclingLeft.Always 5

    Through the "beautiful wet season" that Mohi Beckham calls the past 18-months, most of the paddocks were underwater on the coastal Bay of Plenty farm which he manages.

    However, the paddocks that survived were those with diverse pastures, he says. The others were left looking brown and rusty.

    "I'm still learning," he admits.

    "But that is one thing I have noticed."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/countrylife/audio/2018902254/maramataka-another-layer-of-diversity-to-a-bay-of-plenty-farm

    All Farms (and Farmers?) are different. But we could sure do with more like Mohi Beckham, who, while admitting he's "still learning" seems to be on a pretty good path. Good on him.

  6. arkie 6

    ABC financial journalist Alan Kohler pointing out the inequity baked into the system:

    Tax settings need to change to address this imbalance if we want younger people to ever be able to own homes. Party vote Green, Labour have demonstrated they are incapable (for you).

  7. Dennis Frank 7

    This indicator is worth mentioning:

    The poll asked respondents whether they believed the country was on the right or wrong track. The majority (55 per cent) thought it was on the wrong track, while 37 per cent believed it was on the right track – the most negative result on the question since about 2001.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-new-poll-labour-back-to-30s-nationalact-can-still-govern/NMLG3GPO2RCBDPZJ7MWNBHLYK4/

    Correlates with the winter malaise feeling that's been expressed in our media by various journos – and a two-decade inertial swing highlights the challenge the PM's campaign rhetoric must reverse to shift the public mood back.

    TPM at 3% makes it seem that it bubbled up last month then popped, but may be different publics being measured by different pollster orgs. Greens also up in this one – 2% increase. NZF on 4.4% and Nat/Lab margin half that of the poll before this one.

    • Kat 7.1

      Aha…and Mr Luxon wants to 'get NZ back on track'…..do you think any of the polled have any idea which track he is talking about, and if they were shown a track which direction would they take and how would they know if they were on the right track going in the wrong direction or on the wrong track going in the right direction.

      • Dennis Frank 7.1.1

        No I don't believe most respondents have any sense of a positive alternative. Think it's just a measure of public sentiment pollsters seem to like as a general indicator, so I read it as most folks lacking confidence that Labour know what they're doing.

        If Harman's right and their strategy is actually clever the next poll ought to at least register left/right parity within the margin of error. If it continues to show Labour distinctly below National, I would read that as Harman being wrong about their strategy rather than any belief that National has a better grasp of what's required.

        • Incognito 7.1.1.1

          It seems you have lost the plot and are mixing up two different commenting threads.

          I cannot wait to find out if Harman is ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ (again, about what??) and your personal reading of the entrails actually means anything in the greater scheme of NZ politics.

          Despite all your polyads, your commentary is still firmly stuck in boring binaries.

        • Kat 7.1.1.2

          Factoring in the undecided, left/right poll parity could be now or even better for the left….or the public sentiment may be totally askew with respondents confused by the choice of tracks all going in different directions. Possibly quite a few of them may just give up and not get on any track.

    • bwaghorn 7.2

      Right track wrong track is a nonsense question if it's standing alone, you could have 2 labour voter say wrong track , one could want them to be more like act and one could want them to be more like act.

    • Kat 7.3

      In that article (link) those polled also rated the state of the economy, 76 per cent saying it was not so good or poor.

      Well New Zealand currently has a AA+ credit rating with Standard and Poor's, which may head south a bit but is still very good by international standards. Also Mr Key was on record just the other day saying "NZ is doing pretty darn good"……….

      Once again this polling is just more scene setting designed to foster discontent and malaise, but then for the likes of Jessica Mutch McKay, forever hopeful for some political sparring, can report with glee-full eyebrow raising, head nodding excitement on the 6pm news.

    • Corey 7.4

      Interesting though that the next highest number for wrong direction is a year before Helen Clark got Labours second highest mmp result.

      What happened in 2001?

  8. Patricia Bremner 8

    Journos by and large want the Nats, but don't love Luxon, that is a problem for them.

    Most are now "hearing" Seymore and get a sense he is too radical.

    As for Winnie, there is a sense of deja vu, disbelief and even admiration for his relentless intent to be Parliament.

    So here is the issue, Winston will see Seymore as too much like himself, and will see Luxon as a Leader who could be managed. imo So he would want Seymore as number 3. Now, that won't wash…..

    "Plus What's Willis going to do???"

    Does anyone see a problem?

    I can't see Luxon involved in successful Coalition building, with those two, and Willis. He will revert to dictatorial in a flash imo????

    • Blazer 8.1

      Q-'why did the Mercedes cross the road?'

      A-'to get…Luxon to the other..side'!

    • Adrian 8.2

      Journalists want DRAMA, its their job, they are children.

    • Corey 8.3

      In that situation you'd probably have a Nat minority govt with confidence and supply from Act and Nzf outside of cabinet.

      Sounds like a nightmare, Can you imagine trying to get NZF and Act to agree on a budget …. Good lord…

      Not much would get done because the only thing the three parties agree on is hating "woke" elite and conservative social policy.

      NZF ,economically has far more in common with Labour and the Greens and tbh they worked well together, Nats,act and NZF would be a hilarious, chaotic clusterf**k

      I also don't see Luxon surviving a full term as prime minister, I feel he'd get rolled a year or two into the job in, hes had so much hand holding as Loto but being pm is brutal, but whether it's by someone on the liberal wing or the tory wing would be the question.

      • Patricia Bremner 8.3.1

        Yes, Corey,perhaps "chaos" is closer to home than the 'right' realisesmiley. Nicola would roll him.imo.

  9. arkie 9

    Montana is violating the rights of young people with policies that prohibit the state from considering climate change effects when it reviews coal mining, natural gas extraction and other fossil fuel projects, a state judge said on Monday.

    The decision by Judge Kathy Seeley in Helena marked a major victory in the first youth-led climate case to reach trial in the US and could influence similar cases nationwide.

    In her ruling, Seeley said Montana's greenhouse gas emissions have been proven to be "a substantial factor" in causing climate impacts to Montana's environment, harming the young plaintiffs.

    The 16 plaintiffs sued Montana in 2020, when they were ages two to 18, claiming the state's permitting of projects like coal and natural gas production exacerbated the climate crisis, despite a 1972 amendment to the Montana constitution requiring the state to protect and improve the environment.

    Seeley said the plaintiffs have a "fundamental constitutional right to a clean and healthful environment."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/495830/us-judge-hands-historic-win-to-young-plaintiffs-in-climate-change-case

    This is a great decision that hopefully gets various governments to step up. Continued extraction for profit endangers the future for all of us. Climate action now.

  10. newsense 10

    Very unimpressed with the journalists giving themselves vapours this week, particularly with an allegedly senior journalist calling something ‘stupid’.

    Whether this is the work of a subeditor or not, this seems to be a simple campaigning for one side. Even Hosking, Prebble and Joyce in their opinions don’t use this kind of snide language.

    Perhaps we need to see Chippy and his ministers get back on the Facebook live and do more direct communication to avoid these unprofessional hacks.

  11. SPC 11

    The National Party said today they could not afford to match Labour's new parental leave policy (2 weeks paid leave 1 April 2024 in addition to the existing two weeks unpaid leave, with a third week paid leave in April 2025 and a fourth in April 2026) because they love

    1. Tax Cuts that dribble to flood as the income levels rise.
    2. Restoration of mortgage payments as a cost against rent income
    3. Reducing the bright-line test to 2 years.

    Luxon and Willis said they had been prepared to fake concern about support for new parents, to embarrass Labour in parliament and in neo-liberal friendly media, but would not try and match this – and have determined on calling it unaffordable instead.

    They would stick with merely allowing couples to share the 6 month entitlement (maximum 3 months for both which costs nothing).

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/election-2023-national-questions-affordability-of-paid-parental-leave-changes-after-labour-proposal.html

    • newsense 11.1

      And watch their media sycophants who were beating Labour with not supporting families etc etc , do a handbrake 180 and start saying how it’s all unaffordable etc etc.

  12. arkie 12

    New research shows that 55% of New Zealanders are struggling with their financial situation – up 17% compared to February 2021 and the highest level since surveying began.

    Out of those surveyed, 51% say they are ‘starting to sink, or treading water’ and a further 3.5% are ‘sinking badly’.

    Since February 2021, Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission has commissioned TRA to survey 4000 people annually, gathering insights on how people are feeling about money and how they are coping.

    The latest findings have revealed that women, Māori and Pacific Peoples are being hit the hardest, with 61% of women saying they are in a difficult position financially (compared to 48% of men) and 60% of Māori and 58% of Pasifika are also struggling.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2308/S00141/new-research-reveals-more-than-half-of-kiwis-struggling-with-money.htm

    Something needs to be done to redress this increase in inequality. The tools are there but are being kept in the draw. Labour must do more and needs to be forced to do so. Labour, insufficient (for you). Party vote Green.

  13. Dennis Frank 13

    Apparently Labour didn't get a policy costing right: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300949957/tova-obrien-labours-gst-own-goal-the-gnarliest-weve-seen-all-fifa-womens-world-cup

    to miss the mark with the cost of its GST off fruit and veg policy by about $250million dollars is the gnarliest own goal we’ve seen

    Grant will presumably respond "Well, a quarter of a billion off is no big deal in financial estimates." Dunno why the Nat deputy leader is making a big thing about it. Does anyone ever really believe big govt costings from either side?? I doubt it.

    she explained Labour had failed to cost the first year of the policy and only partially cost the second year.

    I can't see Grant admitting to making any such mistake but his explanation may be entertaining.

    • bwaghorn 13.1

      That's old news , a printing error or some such , and falling for tovas self promoting headlines !! Really??

      • Dennis Frank 13.1.1

        According to the report it was published this morning. You reckon Grant's credibility isn't worth taking seriously? I reckon plenty of voters would expect him to get policy costings right – therefore their reliability is the issue, not Tova's agenda.

        • SPC 13.1.1.1

          Her complaint was that Labour should have made more of an effort to let media know that they had got the wrong info in the first press release before hand. Only some got the correct info with the second press release after the public announcement.

          The side dish was NW trying to conflate public (government) budget plans with Labour Party policy on how to use allocations for new spending (if re-elected) – via the earlier info inaccuracy as cause.

    • SPC 13.2

      The story is two days old, GR and NW have faced off in the House since.

      He would have put his Wellingtons on and walked across the little puddle between the two and waved a draft of legislation for 4 weeks of parental leave to the man of the house – claiming it was affordable to him if not to her – because she gave away all the money to people like her boss who have 6 houses.

      • Dennis Frank 13.2.1

        The story is two days old, GR and NW have faced off in the House since.

        Well, did the truth emerge?? I've seen no report of it. Seemed to me that's why she published her analysis this morning; to provoke a reaction. You know, as if govt policy costings are worth taking seriously.

        I mean, if it's just National & Labour doing claim & counter-claim with both avoiding reality due to reality being inaccessible, I can go with that…

        • SPC 13.2.1.1

          You've been around long enough to know the difference between government policy plans in office (as to budgets) and their manifesto policy they take to elections (given leaks to opposition parties from some …)

          Which is why (all) parties should have their budgets costed.

          • Dennis Frank 13.2.1.1.1

            I was trying to figure out the substance of the story. Thanks for helping – I presume NW got leaked the draft rather than the end result so her apparent win wasn't real, much ado about nothing substantial & Tova doesn't get it…

            • SPC 13.2.1.1.1.1

              It's an in house matter – a party has 100 x to campaign with.

              They have 4 major campaign policies. Any first cost/estimate changes/updates impact on that available for the others.

              If the cost of the parental leave was greater or lesser, the more or less foods that could be covered with GST free etc.

              NW was stretching to infer some official in government budget matter to it all (because of the earlier and later figures).

              TO is just covering the all drama, no consummate campaign politician like Obama, angle – the boredom of explaining the inane.

            • Incognito 13.2.1.1.1.2

              […] much ado about nothing substantial & Tova doesn’t get it…

              Nope, you are not getting it.

              Tova is just doing her ‘job’; without a ‘story’ and a bit of drama she’s got nothing and she’ll become a proverbial tree in the middle of a forest …

  14. newsense 14

    We need to be saying F- the economists and idealogues who wield economics (Don Brash one of the experts in why cheaper fruit and veges is bad) and their infiltration into treasury.

    We’ve already seen that they want unemployment to increase.

    Now they want to cut school lunches because one or two years of school lunches hasn’t reversed colonialism and generational deprivation. Even done a report.

    We didn’t stand up to the charlatans who took the value we’d invested into our public companies or clipped the ticket on both side of the privatisation deals in the 1980s and 1990s.

    The other charlatans such as Luke Malpass and Tova O Brien who despite watching inequality grow because of very poor tax policy in housing, call a small change with positive externalities stupid. We need to stand up to them too.

    Journalists have cheered and worshipped economic growth that was simply immigration and then turned to Steven Joyce like he was a savant. He wasn’t. We haven’t paid for the infrastructure for the immigration and now we’re turning in the tap again and National wants to make it much worse with its sprawl nonsense. That’s fucking stupid Luke, not a dollar off apples. But you’re complicit so we understand.

    Treasury- the people who said we got no benefit from having a movie and TV industry in NZ, though strangely silent on us subsidising farmers- think:

    Treasury documents show there is a lack of support for the continuation of the Ka Ora, Ka Ako programme, which launched about four years ago.

    A report for Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the programme had had no impact on attendance, and for Māori learners, had not led to better levels of concentration in class.

    Perhaps we should cut Treasury salaries to below the bread line on the same basis as they seem to be claiming eating lunch is not required to be productive. It seems unlikely, based on this careful research, to have any impact on the concentration or quality of the output of Treasury officials.

    What do communities or Principals know?

    Principal Margs Aiono said since free lunches came in, she had seen an improvement in the children's attention spans.

    and

    Bankwood School assistant principal Anaru Popham said for some kids, lunch was the difference between coming to school or not.

    and

    Another parent said every bit of help went a long way in a cost-of-living crisis.

    "A lot of families are struggling financially with the cost of food increasing. It does help us, especially with the fruit provided and vegetables in the lunches."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018902763/free-lunches-seen-as-essential-despite-uncertain-future

    Good job Checkpoint! It’s obvious we’re fighting the same technocrats from TINA at this election as much as we ever have. I hope those benefiting can get all their friends out to vote and out to make phone calls and drop leaflets for the parties that are going to keep this programme.

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