Hang in there Simon! Just remember, Bill led the party to a vote share of 20.93% yet he went on to become Prime Munster. Helen had 6 years of lousy polling and one lost election before she succeeded. You can do it, Simon. Have faith and tough it out!
One immediate potential application that comes to mind is precision application of agrichemicals. Instead of spraying massive amounts of fertilizer or pesticide or weedkillers indiscriminately, send a bunch of robospots out to just do spot applications wherever needed.
and crowd control (there they can spray the nasty chemicals), or maybe replace wardens and turn keys in prisons, oh my gosh the applications for spotty the robot dog are endless and we don't even need to walk him or feed him.
As an introvert, I'm finding the new social acceptability of distancing to be the best thing ever. So I'm struggling to come up with any objection to what's happening in your two links.
Yeah. When they take over, I'm really going to miss the dulcet tones of small petrol engines and large diesels. All lacking effective mufflers on their exhausts.
Another aspect is that these could improve productivity in tropical agriculture which has traditionally been limited by the intensive labour needed for the crops grown in these climates.
That could conceivably change the prospects for chronically poor nations like the Phillipines.
I think it would be difficult to replace humans in agriculture, without inviting a world of trouble .
We already reap the bitter rewards of factory farming
There's a true stewardship of the soil thats not just about inputs and outputs , spraying for pests and diseases etc , as if the earth is a mechanical being
Regenerative agriculture depends on acute observation over time ,and an intuitive "learning" of each complex environment
Only humans can have the serendipitous moments necessary
I totally understand what you are saying; it makes sense and I've no argument. I wasn't imagining humans being replaced. As an automation engineer I've had the chance to see the impact up close and personal’ and everything I’ve seen is that automation works to amplify and assist human capacity. It has no independent existence.
In my view no automation or AI system will ever replace human consciousness. Superhuman AI will turn out to be one of what Vernor Vinge called 'the failed dreams'.
Where machines shine is being able to do the simple routine tasks that are able to be condensed into an algorithm. Thereby freeing up time for humans to be able to do more observing, learning, and synthesis of new and different ways of doing things.
I really don't get the whole automation ideology. Let's use that where appropriate, but there's nothing wrong with people doing things. Lots of people love growing food (and I assume love working on ships), so why not take advantage of that and design systems that are good for people and are functional.
In reality they haven't even developed controls and machinery, that can get reliably through a day, without human intervention.
I once got a major water treatment plant to run autonomously for 9 days without operator intervention … it was quite an accomplishment!
But in general you are right, and it's my view that the prime role of automation is to reliably control the routine, predictable tasks and free up the humans involved so that they can focus their much more flexible and creative energies on higher value add.
Autopilots are a good example you will familiar with, no-one hand steers any more than they have to or enjoy doing these days. And the modern versions do a better job of holding track than a human anyway. On the other hand deciding where the track should be plotted still remains a task better suited to people. Usually.
RL Now that's a point. The temp is said to be going beyond what humans can cope with working in the fields growing food, and can’t do enough with new tech or have enough covers, already is in India etc. So robots to do that would make sense. Unfortunately, the way our 'civilisation' is configured these days, the good of robotising will be compromised by the attack/defence capabilities. But what can't be cured must be endured perhaps.
What about thoughts of having city lawn clippings as base for silage for farmers? Ever pursued that idea gsays, it would have to be planned, done carefully, a range of weeds kept out and no spraying, and people take responsibility but it could mean free lawn mowing for them.
Rather than silage, I investigated and proposed composting of grass clippings, leaf mulch, tree trimmings and the kitchen scraps.
The compost would be returned to the sub standard soil that is found in most new housing developments.
Long story short (too late!), the residents had concerns about appearances, smell and rats. The management didn't see the benefits…. I have walked this earth long enough to try and convince folk against their will.
Every time I tip another catcher full of clippings into the skip bin, a little part of me dies. Then the last two frosty mornings the bin has been toasty warm with the decomposition starting up.
I read a while back that the DCC had bought a remote control lawnmower – still needed a remote control unit run by an operator, but it was intended to make mowing slopes safer. Ah, here we are.
The fun question is "if the drone controls the mowers, what controls how the drone controls the mowers?"
Not sure I like the idea of autonomous mowers – we don't need to give our robots-gone-berserk edged weapons. Very sci-fi peasant revolt, that.
Ha. Reminds me of my Dad telling us, about the self propelled mower that got away from him, and ended up drowned in the Avon. Briggs and Stratton petrol reel mower, of course.
More recently the automated straddle carrier, that made a bid for freedom in a Dutch port. Through the gate and down the street.
My own favourite machinery with a life of their own, are Lister and Gardener diesels, that have to be thoroughly suffocated to get them to stop. Unlike modern ones, where one dud chip on an electronics board can kill them
Easier to train as long as your willing to lose a bunch of fingers getting there.
The SawStop works by running a small electric current through the saw blade and detecting when its interrupted by an electrically conductive body part.
There are 10 table saw amputations a day in the US.
" After numerous tests using a hot dog as a finger-analog, in spring 2000, Gass conducted the first test with a real human finger: he applied Novocain to his left ring finger, and after two false starts, he placed his finger into the teeth of a whirring saw blade. The blade stopped as designed, and although it "hurt like the dickens and bled a lot," his finger remained intact."
sends a shudder down the spine.
I have gone to a mates workshop to find doors open, blood spattered table saw outside and no-one around.
Metalheads, my first thought too, brilliant episode, brilliant series. Check out Black Mirrors creator Charlie Brookers Anti Viral Wipe (about UKs response to pandemic) on YouTube for a good laugh and also quite insightful.
I've been a fan of Charlie Brooker's since he wrote for nerdy games mag, PC Zone during the '90s. He's viciously hilarious and his books are great. They should really make him PM.
Might not be age-appropriate for the TS audience, but after having and reading the Harry Potter series to four children – (should have bought Stephen Fry's audiobooks when they came out) your Grim reference immediately struck me as appropriate.
" The Grim is an omen of death, which is reputed to bring about the demise of the person who encounters it. The Grim takes the shape of a large, black, menaching, spectral dog. "
(BTW: Still trying to keep the offspring reading. Just bought two Terry Pratchett novels for the nineteen year old's birthday next week. It's a shared enjoyment.)
Pratchett is wonderful; he's the only other author I still keep a full collection of every published novel I could buy. (The other is of course Vernor Vinge.)
My first read was the Peace War trilogy which I'd imagine would appeal to a young adult. Then there is the Zone of Thought series starting with A Fire Upon the Deepthat I regard as absolute scifi masterpieces, but are longer reads.
Can't go wrong by reading Pratchett Red. I like the Big Bang Theory in one of his Disc world novels. Mort I think. I have it somewhere, will have to have a read of it again.
The wonderful Bob Clarkson (former MP) was just on the radio nationale. Said Todd is the equal of Simon, and would definitely be better than the "communist" currently in charge.
Thank you Bob, for capturing the mood of the nation…
Last time I looked, there was no nationalisation of businesses without compensation, collectivisation of land and agriculture or even purges of those seen as enemies of the state, unless you count Mike Hosking leaving 7 Sharp.
People need to start calling the likes of Clarkson out.
A quick Google of 'Bob Clarkson MP' found that he had been called out by quite a few people in the media.
Issues with Bob the Builder involved anti-gay and anti Muslim comments, stoushes with family over money, blaming people who lived near industrial sites for complaining about heath problems from dust.
Now we find he doesn't like our "Communist" PM even though he does call by her first name. I presume that local National people called him out because he only had one term as Tauranga MP. Later news said he was leaving to join ACT.
After all these years, a one term wonder is called back to comment on Bridges and Muller on RNZ. I listened to the interview. It's an interesting interview from the point of view of personal values and political support.
RNZ did neither Muller or Bridges a favour by allying such support to them from this man.
"Our rights are being violated. That is all actually real," Stokes said. "But this is one of the few times that's ok. Pandemics – these call for a collectivist response. They don't work without one." An American gun rights activist gets it, the people calling Labour communist don't.
I remember it was a trap lefties got into when National/Key were flying high, disparaging their supporters as stupid etc, I see it with the righties now, didn't work for us and shouldn't for them either.
Also, I watched the One News last night, first time in years, and I waited to see what the Muller guy was gonna be like, and they had no footage, just some friends saying he wss a good "bugger" & that "maoris stole his flash sandwiches at school", or something.
One last thing, to me the Labour numbers proves no one is listening to Hosking, Garner etc or reading the Herald.
Who thought it was a good idea to put him up to give public comment and use airtime? He's a has been of the worst sort and his opinion as irrelevant as most of the public. It smacks of irresponsible journalists. What is national radio's guidelines for selecting commentators?
A Danish bank has launched the world’s first negative interest rate mortgage – handing out loans to homeowners where the charge is minus 0.5% a year.
Negative interest rates effectively mean that a bank pays a borrower to take money off their hands, so they pay back less than they have been loaned.
Jyske Bank, Denmark’s third largest, has begun offering borrowers a 10-year deal at -0.5%, while another Danish bank, Nordea, says it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate deals at 0% and a 30-year mortgage at 0.5%.
Under its negative mortgage, Jyske said borrowers will make a monthly repayment as usual – but the amount still outstanding will be reduced each month by more than the borrower has paid.
“We don’t give you money directly in your hand, but every month your debt is reduced by more than the amount you pay,” said Jyske’s housing economist, Mikkel Høegh.
In recognition of how puzzling the new mortgage is for customers, the bank’s FAQ is littered with questions and statements such as Hvordan kan det lade sig gøre? (How is that possible?) and Ja, du læste rigtigt (Yes, you read that right).
The mortgage is possible because Denmark, as well as Sweden and Switzerland, has seen rates in money markets drop to levels that turn banking upside-down.
Høegh said Jyske Bank is able to go into money markets and borrow from institutional investors at a negative rate, and is simply passing this on to its customers.
But the flipside is that savers will see nothing paid in interest on their deposits – and may also suffer as they go negative."
I'm thinking there may be benefits for this happening in New Zealand.
1. Palatable or not, those best able to weather the financial implications of Covid will most often be those who have the excess income, and ability to amass savings. They will not gain interest but they will also retain equity on their savings, unless the savings are more than a specified amount, such as in Sweden:
Those implications may mean that those with money may choose to invest in businesses or spend it which will circulate that money and improve the economy recovery.
2. For mortgage holders, this will allow a practical relief from the financial commitment of a mortgage, while still maintaining a payment relationship with their bank. It may be able – in many cases – to offset financial hardship resulting from reduced pay or unemployment.
3. A further benefit is, that if housing prices fall significantly (which would be a huge benefit to society) those who have entered the market lately, when it is most inflated, will have a reduced payment for the rest of the mortgage, offsetting a larger amount of equity loss than those who are at the end of their mortgages.
That is, if a mortgage has been taken out for $500,000 today and goes for twenty years at 4.0% paid weekly, the interest paid over that time is $226,569 accounting for just over 31% If of payments during that time. (NB: I used the stuff mortgage calculator for these calculations)
If that mortgage is transferred to what the Jyse bank offers there are two options:
a. Keep the 20 year term and reduce the weekly payment to $481
b: Retain your existing weekly payment of $699 and reduce your term to 14 years.
c: A combination of either above.
This is a reduction of around 30% of current mortgage commitments on offer. This provides a cushion for house prices to fall – 20-25% or more without causing excessive financial harm for home owners and tenants.
For me, the elegance of this proposal is that those who are at the end of their mortgages – and will not gain as much benefit as those at the beginning – will have, during their mortgage term have already accumulated untaxed, and inflated capital gains so their direct investment will still be higher than what they have contributed. In fact, any mortgage transferring over will have built into it a proportional cost/benefit that relates to the loss of equity if house prices fall vs the reduction in interest payable on that property.
I am coming from the perspective that house prices and rental costs need to fall significantly – and have needed to for a while. I also understand that many NZers have all their financial wealth and security in their homes, and need to be considered.
I would like to see our government administer or legislate for such a solution.
Ideally, it would be a government agency, such as the State Advances Corporation that provided home loans to ex-servicemen.
To facilitate rollout it may be necessary to provide in tranches depending on owner/occupier and citizenship status. I'd personally delay offering to family trusts or LLC's or overseas residents because their choice of vehicle provides them with some insulation from taxes, expense and financial shocks already.
I'd be interested to hear from others about problems they can see with this proposal, to see if there are any kinks that needed to be worked out if it was to be a practical and possible option.
(Quick correction: Just noticed the -0.5% bank rate only applies to 10 years and I used it for the whole 20 yr term, which is only offered at 0%. Will update on next comment)
Hi Molly, it's a trend to watch for sure. When I grew up & got a savings account the bank paid me 3% interest to deposit money in it. Banking then had a structural incentive to get more custom. We may be returning to it!
John Campbell interviewed a young asian guy who spoke our lingo like a kiwi a few days ago, about quantitative easing. He was representing the Reserve Bank on the TVNZ breakfast show. They've recently doubled their qe. He said the new money gets created as electronic credit (which I knew), which would have confounded many viewers but he was refreshingly forthright and sensible in not spooking them by calling those dollars imaginary. They become real when digitally invented.
So the way to keep the economy going now is to invent money. Farmers could use this thinking in times of drought, eh? Invent rain. How? Well, easiest way is to catch and store it when it falls. They could call that process water conservation. Conservatives ought to conserve, eh? You'd think. The reason farmers don't is because they believe rain always falls eventually. As Tom Petty once sang "the waiting is the hardest part"…
Catching and storing rain is fine for targeted irrigation but the dam needs to be half the size of the farm for an effective grazing regime. And it does rain most of the time.
The numbers around volume and weight for just 20mm on a thousand hectare farm are astronomical. Clever farming is a better option.
I think the most important thing to understand about all this stuff was highlighted to me simply by the US economist Randell Wray (and recently I heard this idea repeated by the US Fed chairman in a public interview where he encouraged the US treasury to spend more).
The statement (miss-quoted) is "the central bank lends and the treasury spends". Treasury spending gets spending moving including when facilitated by central QE programs to lower the government interest rates, but all the monetary policy stuff done by the central bank is about changing the interest rates and so all depends on the amount of interest in taking on loans.
Using that analogy, I would say that would require the government to direct the rain to fall more equitably, instead of providing torrential downpours on dams and giving the control to commercial banks and saying turn the taps on as you wish. (Or don't.)
A post about many of the incorrect things you will hear said about government spending and its impacts on the economy. In this case highlighting that the Bank of England is presently falsifying many of these ideas.
That's a very interesting thing to observe, seeing this in practice doesn't make much sense to me however.
Negative interest rates (which I believe Sweden's central bank is running) mean that the banks deposits with the central bank lose money. Collectively there is no way for the financial sector to rid itself of these excess deposits (other than lending them to the government) as any payments they make then go to another large financial institution. The upshot of this is that government debt often ends up lending at negative interest rates which are however lower than what the central bank is offering.
This is what is going on with the charges banks are setting for holding onto large deposits.
What makes little sense to me however is public loans at negative interest rates, and I suspect there is some missing piece such as a small number of these loans are made as an advertising ploy by the bank. The reason I understand things this way is because the interest component paid on a loan is basically the income part of the arrangement for the bank. If there is negative income to the arrangement then it makes little sense to enter into the loan agreement. Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game.
Your concerns are already covered in the comment, Nic. This is about ensuring everyone gets through intact. No interest on deposits does not remove equity, just encourages direct investment and spending.
" Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game. "
Banks still can charge fees, as I believe Jyske does, but not excessively. Long-time the banks will be able to survive, and their chance of survival improves if the majority of their customers are financially secure. But we have businesses – banks included – that are not used to long-term thinking.
And why can't the government play the game to benefit all NZers?
Molly, I'm not saying it would be a bad thing if this happened. I just think its unlikely to be something which can be setup as a widespread part of the financial system, as your expecting banks to engage in widespread unprofitable lending. The long term thinking on that game is to stop being in the business of banking.
I did consider that this can be a way to shrink the financial system which might be a good thing to do to some extent. I do think this aligns with something which seems to be not widely understood, but low (or even negative) interest rates are actually less favorable to banks than the high interest rates, which are supposed to be restraining their lending.
I understand. But I'm not worried about the banks incentives. So, far the banks are not offering anything that doesn't improve their income substantially in the long term – which the mortgage holidays do. What the rent holidays don't necessarily do – is improve the financial security and well being of their clients.
So, I'm trying to look at it from the perspective of the people of NZ, taking into account the inflated cost of housing that has continued not to be addressed, AND the NZ cultural attachment to housing as financial security. That is the problem I'm talking about and trying to address – not how to retain the bank as a commercial entity.
The facts became somewhat more clear when I read the guardian article in full. First its a Danish bank (which I was calling Swedish) and second the banks still make profit on the loans due to the associated fees.
I suspect that in their banking system these fees are much higher than in New Zealand which has a much higher rate difference between the central bank (and money market interest rates) and commercial bank interest rates. In New Zealand the fees component is typically very small and often waived. This structure makes the New Zealand banks profitability much more opaque.
I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending.
"I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending. "
I agree, and we need to start quantifying those benefits by some means in order to know where to rebuild the economy and support NZers. SROI (Social Return on Investment) has been around for a while now, but is not often referred to in policy statements or media articles while expected returns from events such as the America's Cup are calculated and accepted without much scrutiny.
I guess – without going into the role of the central bank – any single bank would make money by taking a deposit of $10k and then repaying $9500. It loans the $10k on mortgage but receives repayments of say $9700. So it would still have a $200 margin. I made the figures up for the above.
Absolutely. As I highlighted in other comments in Denmark they pay a lot more in fees (including an annual percentage of the loan, as a fee), in New Zealand all the payments are rolled into interest rates, so by focusing on just the interest rates this is a bit miss leading when compared to New Zealand.
Yes, I understand that as well. Which is why I have suggested a Government run system that reduces those costs as much as possible.
The banks have been very profitable and have no incentive to reduce their income from clients or reducing the inflated housing costs. They are financially better off when these are as high as possible.
A government agency – however – can consider SROI when calculating cost/benefit and a create a system that does not need mortgage brokers and refixing every two-three years. A young relative working for one of the big four banks in the mortgage lending department receives quarterly bonuses in the tens of thousands for the process of refixing existing loans or signing up new ones. There's a lot of extraneous extras that are lost when a constant long-term loan at a fixed rate is entered into.
"Swiss banks are to start charging their super-rich clients to look after their piles of cash.
UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, told its ultra-wealthy clients on Tuesday that it would introduce an annual 0.6% charge on cash savings of more than €500,000 (£461,000). The fee, to be introduced in November, rises to 0.75% on savings of more than 2m Swiss francs (£1.7m).
The minimum fee is €3,000 a year. Savings of 2m francs would attract an annual charge of 15,000 francs."
In terms of addressing the mechanisms that produce inequality, this may also go some way to improve it. At a certain point when you have met all your financial requirements to live, and have saved enough to be secure, the current financial environment allows wealth to multiply and accumulate.
Note: The Jyske bank also charges fees that cover admin and employment costs, but they are not excessive.
Following the discussion with RedLogix above the following thoughts from the character of Samuel Vines seem appropriate:
“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.
Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.
But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet."
This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.” – Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms: The Play
Already thought of a possible improvement while AFK:
IF landlords on a property take this option, they have to take the same term and the reduced payment amount and pass on at least 80% of that saving to the tenants. That would reduce financial rental pressure immediately.
I would expect quite a lot of turmoil for both homeowners, landlords and tenants that are financially stressed, and this mechanism might be a way of providing security in terms of housing without a lot of changes in ownership. (As well as providing a needed downwards pressure on housing and rental prices)
“Negative rates are a very slow way of unwinding the effects of QE…. especially at -0.5%.”
And why is slow considered a negative? This does allow a downward movement in housing prices and rentals – at -0.5% a 31% neutral position compared to maintaining the same mortgage at the current 4%.
Given the love affair and financial security many NZers have with property, we need a plan to allow many to still feel and be financially secure while creating a more affordable housing environment for all.
Any other ideas on how to do that would be great… because many have been waiting quite a while to access housing that is affordable and healthy without needing to overcrowd…
Thousands of under-utilised Air BnB properties, high and increasing unemployment, increasing State housing provision will drive it…..the same forces that will drive down property prices.
Slow is considered negative because the need is now….the tenants and mortgagees cannot wait years or decades for the ratios to begin to become aligned with the real economy again.
The RBNZ backstopping the banks is (I expect) designed to support that deflation while enabling bank viability….it would not surprise to see them take on the bad loan books of the banks and administer those mortgages in the near term to remove them from the private balance sheets. Hopefully they will have a mechanism to support owner occupied to continue and foreclose investment properties.
The mechanism you state, which is left to circumstance and commercial entities, will disrupt a lot of homeowners, landlords and tenants. The disruption may also continue for some time, and will result in NZers losing out – not banks who have benefitted from increasing debt levels for many years now. It just depends on where priorities lie.
There will also be a fast response time to reduced mortgages – for financially strapped owners and tenants.
If your housing costs are reduced immediately by 20-30% to offset the financial downturn and resulting constricting household incomes, then there is less likely to be disruption by the need to move or sell – AND find somewhere else to live. (Although, I think there still will be disruption and devastation, just perhaps reduced)
I do agree that the state has to be more involved to direct the fallout, and ensure long-term benefits to NZers.
negative rates won't create that scale or speed of reduction (immediate)…and as stated the reduction is going to occur anyway, negative rates or not.
And negative rates create other problems that make the whole regime problematic.
The mechanism I outlined is hardly left to commercial entities and circumstance (market forces) for it involves market intervention by the state…..and its not as if it hasn't been done before.
Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same.
P.S. disruption is not going to be avoided no matter what is done.
" Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same. "
What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result.
And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash? Another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard.
(Already conceded disruption will occur, just looking to reduce the impact, while supporting NZ people – not entities)
"What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result."
When the mortgage we had taken out at 8% hit 19% we applied for a housing corp refinance and from memory the rate was 11%…and the term extended to 24 years (greater than available in the market)…the result was we didn't lose our home.
"And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash?"
The market is going to crash whether we like it or not…the only question is by how much. I have outlined how I believe the RBNZ will reduce the fallout….remember they are required by statute to ensure the stability of the banking system but they have also stated the property ratios are unsustainable and create instability so really their options are very limited.
And if they bail out investors (in both residential and commercial) they create the same problem for themselves that the Fed did with their QE programme….they become captured by the underwrite and cannot withdraw it….which ultimately runs counter to their charter.
"another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard."
Gov is partially addressing this with increased social housing build and the improving standards can be covered by increased trades training though its not a given….there is room for much more particularly in regard to CC and density as Susan Krumdieck promotes.
I'm someone who thinks the inflated housing prices do need to come down – both for purchase and for rent.
The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them.
You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit.
I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers.
Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens.
The current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is taken.
As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants.
"The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them."
You appear to misunderstand …the equity adjustment is going to occur….and as it does we can (and I suspect will) provision home owners to remain in their homes.
"You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit."
Support for homeowners is correct….if you include provision for investors you are placing the floor under the market and encourage the lending…the deflation will occur because homeowners do not require a return…it is somewhere to live…whereas investors require the return to justify the investment.
Serviceability is the key
"I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers."
They can be next in line…but if the gov says sorry nothing for you then the deflation occurs….there is a disincentive for banks to provide finance.
"Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens. "
It is not a question of capacity…the Govs ability to finance is unlimited (if we ignore future impact) …it is what is the desired outcome…commercial property is also overvalued and over leveraged…..it cannot be subsidised as that creates disconnects and disconnects from the real economy are the problem.
"the current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is take"
Yes the social housing will take time and in one respect I think the gov foolish to build when they could buy cheaply existing properties (there was no shortage of houses, only a shortage of affordable housing) But there are positives to building social housing including training, employment and new technology (or systems)
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices.
Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them.
You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution.
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Well, aren't all landlords in it for the business of providing housing at a profit and not capital gains? (/sarc) In essence, their profits won't be adversely affected – their income would reduce, but so would their expenses. The return should be equitable with pre-Covid.
I'm advocating a bottom-up approach. What do the NZ people need. We need to be housed, fed and supported – then employed. The current social housing plan is not going to cut it, it was ineffective to address the real housing issues before, and it will not deliver now.
"Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices"
.Not sure your definition of social housing is the norm…social housing INCLUDES state housing, community and emergency housing.
"Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them"
Supporting them how?…..and tenants can remain in their current housing (if they so desire) if the landlord changes…the property remains.
"You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution."
You continue misunderstand what I am outlining….'the market will do what the market does , and currently it is in a deflationary environment….the state intervention (or not) is crucial to the desired outcome…as it always was, its just that in the recent past the intervention was considered undesired
"The World Bank also says this ratio is "possibly the most important summary measure of housing market performance, indicating not only the degree to which housing is affordable by the population, but also the presence of market distortions".
Based on this official work, it seems to have become accepted that a median multiple of 3.0 times or less is a very good marker for housing affordability. Much of the work in support of the 3x standard is based on US research on the US housing market"
Sweden now has the highest coronavirus death rate in the world per capita over the last week after continuing to shun lockdown.
The government has insisted that its softer approach to dealing with the pandemic will pay off in the long run as restaurants, bars and businesses remain open.
But over the last seven days, Sweden had an average of 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants – more than any other country in the world.
This is in comparison to 5.57 in the UK, 4.28 in Belgium, 4.11 in the US, 2.62 in Spain, 2.29 in Italy, and 2.26 in France.
Many of these other countries saw far more virus deaths earlier in the pandemic, but managed to bring down the numbers with strict lockdown measures.
There's some kind of mental disconnect going on between an expected 25% antibody rate, or even a 7% antibody rate, and a reported population case rate of 0.3%.
Evidently they are putting a lot of hope into the asymptomatic infection and transmission rate being orders of magnitude higher than detected case rate. But that hope isn't supported by data from places where extensive testing of contacts is carried out (such as New Zealand), which shows that true asymptomatic cases are a small fraction of the number of symptomatic cases.
Given that most reports of antibody tests highlight the fact that most tests have a very high false positive rate, the likeliest explanation is that even the 7% at the end of April is a gross overestimate of how many have actually been exposed. Which in turn suggests that the voluntary physical distancing the Swedes have done has successfully flattened the curve, but they are just somewhere near the start of a very long broad peak of the curve.
Which in turn suggests that the voluntary physical distancing the Swedes have done has successfully flattened the curve, but they are just somewhere near the start of a very long broad peak of the curve.
That was my reading of it this morning as well. Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated, or it doesn’t cause the immune system to generate antibodies unless symptoms are severe or ….
But as was obvious from the start – this isn’t a standard disease
Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated
My sense is that infection spreading is mainly due to large groups getting close together and making loud noises at each other. Choir practice, bars, weddings, noisy restaurants etc. Those appear to have been the superspreading events. Then once those events stopped, and very basic precautions against spreading started, it took a lot of close personal contact for most new infections.
It kind of makes a mockery of the idea of an R0 number when most infection spread is due to a few discrete superspreading events, each resulting in a large but random number of transmissions. Rather than the picture implied by an R0 number, which suggests each infection likely passes it on to two or three other people .(or twenty in the case of measles in an unprotected population).
I looked into typical infection models of the kind being used to discuss policy (the SIR form) and was astounded by how unrealistically simplistic they are. While its possible to understand they are modelling a process like viral spread its always going to be questionable if they are making a reasonable forecast, specifically as the outbreak occurs people will and have been naturally socially distance themselves from others (people automatically out less and take more precautions), but the assumption seems to be a static R0 throughout any forecast which doesn't respond to the outbreak.
I vaguely recall talk about a review into the Covid 19 responses by DHBs after complaints about lack of surgical equipment and PPEs in some parts of the country. I can't remember the actual specifics.
That was annoying. Software security update reboot. It found a configuration issue from the operating system update earlier in the week. Set the IP incorrectly.
One interesting aspect of the lockdown,and spending constraints is that NZ has reduced both its use of credit cards,and paid off over the last 2 months 1.5 billion of interest bearing credit card debt.
It sucks to be visa . Wonder what the impact is on the balance of payments and how much less is going to overseas as profit and fees. I'm assuming the local banks provide the capital circulated but I don't really know how it works in the background.
Another random thought – so far banks and credit card companies seem to have made up the fraud losses. that happen but with the changing banking enviroment will security become a higher profile activity?
How many times has James moved on since then? More recently (January 2020) our very own leader of the opposition Simon Bridges had reacquired James' favour.
"i (as stated prev) stopped my regular donations to national telling the office that I would not restart while Bridges was leader.
but he’s won me over and I have started donating again."
But I suspect that’s not how James rolls. Perhaps Todd Muller's looking pretty charismatic to James "at the moment". Ah James, ever the fair-weather admirer.
look at you – searching back and spending time searching for old comments. Good on you.
In reply to the first item – who is the worlds most charismatic leader – I answered. why for the moment? simply because this is not an absolute. Ardern may be polling the highest "for the moment" dosnt mean she will for all eternity (despite the wishes of some on here).
And yep – I stopped donating, and then I started once I thought he was doing a better job. Still am – every month – wont stop with the new leader.
James, look at you – donating to the National party every month. Good on you.
You're quite right re the ephemeral nature of political popularity – for a recent local example we need look no further than the ‘leadership’ of the Honourable Simon Bridges (endorsed by Sir John Key, no less.) Were I a betting man, I'd put money on PM Ardern out-lasting at least two National party leaders.
"But first, the latest update records +2.4 mln more people claiming unemployment benefits in the US, taking the total since early March to more than 38 mln. We may be getting used to such large numbers and this latest week is lower than last week, but this still represents a building social disaster, the scale of which vastly exceeds the Great Depression. In 1932, twelve million Americans were unemployed and one out of every four families no longer had an income. In 2020 the social safety net is helping with the income stress in the short term, but the level of real jobless level is also now approaching 25%. US jobless benefits typically last only 26 weeks"
I don't envy the state governors who seem to be the last stand of sensible politicians in many parts of the US. No money, no food and widespread gun ownership is a recipe for civil unrest. Those billionaire communities maybe don't look so secure anymore and the overseas boltholes are closed
Social and racial stresses arose from widely differing interpretations of the Treaty, the article said, which led to 135 years of conflict and grievance until the document was enshrined in law in 1975 and a truth and reconciliation commission formed.
"Today, the nation has shamefully unequal rates of Māori health, educational and judicial outcomes, and youth suicide statistics are tragically high."
Because of these disparities, many contemporary local commenters viewed the country's progressive label with scepticism, the article said.
Many social advances previously occurred because of the nation's values of fairness and equality, but now some of the motivation was to be seen as a world leader.
"If you look at the right of women to vote, in the 1890s, no one was saying, 'We want to be the first…'," historian Professor Paul Moon told the BBC.
"The concern was, 'This is an important right because it will enfranchise women or be more representative, more democratic and so on'. "
But then Granny reverts to form and tries to link 35 years of neoliberal crap to the current Labour led govt.
I feel like hell has frozen over. Firstly my dad has been saying nice things about Winston Peters… And I agree with them (my dad's a labour/alliance kinda guy)
Then all the older blokes I know who have benefited enormously from neoliberal policies and absolutely hated Labour and adored key and haven't voted Labour since Lange, many of them are praising the PM, talking about nationals lack of compassion and saying they may vote labour or NZ f.
Obviously not a poll or anything but … It's so weird to hear so many people who traditionally spit bike at me for being a lefty even entertain the idea of Labour. Perhaps covid 19 has changed how a lot of people value things. Time will tell.
The worms will live in every hostIt's hard to pick which one they eat the mostThe horrible people, the horrible peopleIt's as anatomic as the size of your steepleCapitalism has made it this wayOld-fashioned fascism will take it awaySongwriter: Twiggy Ramirez Read more ...
Hi,It’s almost Christmas Day which means it is almost my birthday, where you will find me whimpering in the corner clutching a warm bottle of Baileys.If you’re out of ideas for presents (and truly desperate) then it is possible to gift a full Webworm subscription to a friend (or enemy) ...
This morning’s six standouts for me at 6.30am include:Rachel Helyer Donaldson’s scoop via RNZ last night of cuts to maternity jobs in the health system;Maddy Croad’s scoop via The Press-$ this morning on funding cuts for Christchurch’s biggest food rescue charity;Benedict Collins’ scoop last night via 1News on a last-minute ...
A listing of 25 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 15, 2024 thru Sat, December 21, 2024. Based on feedback we received, this week's roundup is the first one published soleley by category. We are still interested in ...
Well, I've been there, sitting in that same chairWhispering that same prayer half a million timesIt's a lie, though buried in disciplesOne page of the Bible isn't worth a lifeThere's nothing wrong with youIt's true, it's trueThere's something wrong with the villageWith the villageSomething wrong with the villageSongwriters: Andrew Jackson ...
ACT would like to dictate what universities can and can’t say. We knew it was coming. It was outlined in the coalition agreement and has become part of Seymour’s strategy of “emphasising public funding” to prevent people from opposing him and his views—something he also uses to try and de-platform ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park from the Gigafact team in collaboration with members from our team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Are we heading ...
So the Solstice has arrived – Summer in this part of the world, Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. And with it, the publication my new Norse dark-fantasy piece, As Our Power Lessens at Eternal Haunted Summer: https://eternalhauntedsummer.com/issues/winter-solstice-2024/as-our-power-lessens/ As previously noted, this one is very ‘wyrd’, and Northern Theory of Courage. ...
The Natural Choice: As a starter for ten percent of the Party Vote, “saving the planet” is a very respectable objective. Young voters, in particular, raised on the dire (if unheeded) warnings of climate scientists, and the irrefutable evidence of devastating weather events linked to global warming, vote Green. After ...
The Government cancelled 60% of Kāinga Ora’s new builds next year, even though the land for them was already bought, the consents were consented and there are builders unemployed all over the place. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political ...
Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on UnsplashEvery morning I get up at 3am to go around the traps of news sites in Aotearoa and globally. I pick out the top ones from my point of view and have been putting them into my Dawn Chorus email, which goes out with a podcast. ...
Over on Kikorangi Newsroom's Marc Daalder has published his annual OIA stats. So I thought I'd do mine: 82 OIA requests sent in 2024 7 posts based on those requests 20 average working days to receive a response Ministry of Justice was my most-requested entity, ...
Welcome to the December 2024 Economic Bulletin. We have two monthly features in this edition. In the first, we discuss what the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update from Treasury and the Budget Policy Statement from the Minister of Finance tell us about the fiscal position and what to ...
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi have submitted against the controversial Treaty Principles Bill, slamming the Bill as a breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi and an attack on tino rangatiratanga and the collective rights of Tangata Whenua. “This Bill seeks to legislate for Te Tiriti o Waitangi principles that are ...
I don't knowHow to say what's got to be saidI don't know if it's black or whiteThere's others see it redI don't get the answers rightI'll leave that to youIs this love out of fashionOr is it the time of yearAre these words distraction?To the words you want to hearSongwriters: ...
Our economy has experienced its worst recession since 1991. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, December 20 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast above and the daily Pick ‘n’ Mix below ...
Twas the Friday before Christmas and all through the week we’ve been collecting stories for our final roundup of the year. As we start to wind down for the year we hope you all have a safe and happy Christmas and new year. If you’re travelling please be safe on ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the year’s news with: on climate. Her book of the year was Tim Winton’s cli-fi novel Juice and she also mentioned Mike Joy’s memoir The Fight for Fresh Water. ...
The Government can head off to the holidays, entitled to assure itself that it has done more or less what it said it would do. The campaign last year promised to “get New Zealand back on track.” When you look at the basic promises—to trim back Government expenditure, toughen up ...
Open access notables An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment:Tracking the energy balance of the Earth system is a key method for studying the contribution of human activities to climate change. However, accurately estimating the surface energy balance ...
Photo by Mauricio Fanfa on UnsplashKia oraCome and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm today.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news with myself , plus regular guests and , ...
“Like you said, I’m an unreconstructed socialist. Everybody deserves to get something for Christmas.”“ONE OF THOSE had better be for me!” Hannah grinned, fascinated, as Laurie made his way, gingerly, to the bar, his arms full of gift-wrapped packages.“Of course!”, beamed Laurie. Depositing his armful on the bar-top and selecting ...
Data released by Statistics New Zealand today showed a significant slowdown in the economy over the past six months, with GDP falling by 1% in September, and 1.1% in June said CTU Economist Craig Renney. “The data shows that the size of the economy in GDP terms is now smaller ...
One last thing before I quitI never wanted any moreThan I could fit into my headI still remember every single word you saidAnd all the shit that somehow came along with itStill, there's one thing that comforts meSince I was always caged and now I'm freeSongwriters: David Grohl / Georg ...
Sparse offerings outside a Te Kauwhata church. Meanwhile, the Government is cutting spending in ways that make thousands of hungry children even hungrier, while also cutting funding for the charities that help them. It’s also doing that while winding back new building of affordable housing that would allow parents to ...
It is difficult to make sense of the Luxon Coalition Government’s economic management.This end-of-year review about the state of economic management – the state of the economy was last week – is not going to cover the National Party contribution. Frankly, like every other careful observer, I cannot make up ...
This morning I awoke to the lovely news that we are firmly back on track, that is if the scale was reversed.NZ ranks low in global economic comparisonsNew Zealand's economy has been ranked 33rd out of 37 in an international comparison of which have done best in 2024.Economies were ranked ...
Remember those silent movies where the heroine is tied to the railway tracks or going over the waterfall in a barrel? Finance Minister Nicola Willis seems intent on portraying herself as that damsel in distress. According to Willis, this country’s current economic problems have all been caused by the spending ...
Similar to the cuts and the austerity drive imposed by Ruth Richardson in the 1990’s, an era which to all intents and purposes we’ve largely fiddled around the edges with fixing in the time since – over, to be fair, several administrations – whilst trying our best it seems to ...
String-Pulling in the Dark: For the democratic process to be meaningful it must also be public. WITH TRUST AND CONFIDENCE in New Zealand’s politicians and journalists steadily declining, restoring those virtues poses a daunting challenge. Just how daunting is made clear by comparing the way politicians and journalists treated New Zealanders ...
Dear Nicola Willis, thank you for letting us know in so many words that the swingeing austerity hasn't worked.By in so many words I mean the bit where you said, Here is a sea of red ink in which we are drowning after twelve months of savage cost cutting and ...
The Open Government Partnership is a multilateral organisation committed to advancing open government. Countries which join are supposed to co-create regular action plans with civil society, committing to making verifiable improvements in transparency, accountability, participation, or technology and innovation for the above. And they're held to account through an Independent ...
Today I tuned into something strange: a press conference that didn’t make my stomach churn or the hairs on the back of my neck stand on end. Which was strange, because it was about the torture of children. It was the announcement by Erica Stanford — on her own, unusually ...
This is a must watch, and puts on brilliant and practical display the implications and mechanics of fast-track law corruption and weakness.CLICK HERE: LINK TO WATCH VIDEOOur news media as it is set up is simply not equipped to deal with the brazen disinformation and corruption under this right wing ...
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi Acting Secretary Erin Polaczuk is welcoming the announcement from Minister of Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden that she is opening consultation on engineered stone and is calling on her to listen to the evidence and implement a total ban of the product. “We need ...
The Government has announced a 1.5% increase in the minimum wage from 1 April 2025, well below forecast inflation of 2.5%. Unions have reacted strongly and denounced it as a real terms cut. PSA and the CTU are opposing a new round of staff cuts at WorkSafe, which they say ...
The decision to unilaterally repudiate the contract for new Cook Strait ferries is beginning to look like one of the stupidest decisions a New Zealand government ever made. While cancelling the ferries and their associated port infrastructure may have made this year's books look good, it means higher costs later, ...
Hi there! I’ve been overseas recently, looking after a situation with a family member. So apologies if there any less than focused posts! Vanuatu has just had a significant 7.3 earthquake. Two MFAT staff are unaccounted for with local fatalities.It’s always sad to hear of such things happening.I think of ...
Today is a special member's morning, scheduled to make up for the government's theft of member's days throughout the year. First up was the first reading of Greg Fleming's Crimes (Increased Penalties for Slavery Offences) Amendment Bill, which was passed unanimously. Currently the House is debating the third reading of ...
We're going backwardsIgnoring the realitiesGoing backwardsAre you counting all the casualties?We are not there yetWhere we need to beWe are still in debtTo our insanitiesSongwriter: Martin Gore Read more ...
Willis blamed Treasury for changing its productivity assumptions and Labour’s spending increases since Covid for the worsening Budget outlook. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, December 18 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast above ...
Today the Auckland Transport board meet for the last time this year. For those interested (and with time to spare), you can follow along via this MS Teams link from 10am. I’ve taken a quick look through the agenda items to see what I think the most interesting aspects are. ...
Hi,If you’re a New Zealander — you know who Mike King is. He is the face of New Zealand’s battle against mental health problems. He can be loud and brash. He raises, and is entrusted with, a lot of cash. Last year his “I Am Hope” charity reported a revenue ...
Probably about the only consolation available from yesterday’s unveiling of the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is that it could have been worse. Though Finance Minister Nicola Willis has tightened the screws on future government spending, she has resisted the calls from hard-line academics, fiscal purists and fiscal hawks ...
The right have a stupid saying that is only occasionally true:When is democracy not democracy? When it hasn’t been voted on.While not true in regards to branches of government such as the judiciary, it’s a philosophy that probably should apply to recently-elected local government councillors. Nevertheless, this concept seemed to ...
Long story short: the Government’s austerity policy has driven the economy into a deeper and longer recession that means it will have to borrow $20 billion more over the next four years than it expected just six months ago. Treasury’s latest forecasts show the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s fiscal strategy of ...
Come and join myself and CTU Chief Economist for a pop-up ‘Hoon’ webinar on the Government’s Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) with paying subscribers to The Kākā for 30 minutes at 5 pm today.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream to watch our chat. Don’t worry if ...
In 1998, in the wake of the Paremoremo Prison riot, the Department of Corrections established the "Behaviour Management Regime". Prisoners were locked in their cells for 22 or 23 hours a day, with no fresh air, no exercise, no social contact, no entertainment, and in some cases no clothes and ...
New data released by the Treasury shows that the economic policies of this Government have made things worse in the year since they took office, said NZCTU Economist Craig Renney. “Our fiscal indicators are all heading in the wrong direction – with higher levels of debt, a higher deficit, and ...
At the 2023 election, National basically ran on a platform of being better economic managers. So how'd that turn out for us? In just one year, they've fucked us for two full political terms: The government's books are set to remain deeply in the red for the near term ...
AUSTERITYText within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedMy spreadsheet insists This pain leads straight to glory (File not found) Read more ...
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi are saying that the Government should do the right thing and deliver minimum wage increases that don’t see workers fall further behind, in response to today’s announcement that the minimum wage will only be increased by 1.5%, well short of forecast inflation. “With inflation forecast ...
Oh, I weptFor daysFilled my eyesWith silly tearsOh, yeaBut I don'tCare no moreI don't care ifMy eyes get soreSongwriters: Paul Rodgers / Paul Kossoff. Read more ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob HensonIn this aerial view, fingers of meltwater flow from the melting Isunnguata Sermia glacier descending from the Greenland Ice Sheet on July 11, 2024, near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. According to the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE), the ...
In August, I wrote an article about David Seymour1 with a video of his testimony, to warn that there were grave dangers to his Ministry of Regulation:David Seymour's Ministry of Slush Hides Far Greater RisksWhy Seymour's exorbitant waste of taxpayers' money could be the least of concernThe money for Seymour ...
Willis is expected to have to reveal the bitter fiscal fruits of her austerity strategy in the HYEFU later today. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/TheKakaMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, December 17 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast ...
On Friday the government announced it would double the number of toll roads in New Zealand as well as make a few other changes to how toll roads are used in the country. The real issue though is not that tolling is being used but the suggestion it will make ...
The Prime Minister yesterday engaged in what looked like a pre-emptive strike designed to counter what is likely to be a series of depressing economic statistics expected before the end of the week. He opened his weekly post-Cabinet press conference with a recitation of the Government’s achievements. “It certainly has ...
This whooping cough story from south Auckland is a good example of the coalition government’s approach to social need – spend money on urging people to get vaccinated but only after you’ve cut the funding to where they could get vaccinated. This has been the case all year with public ...
And if there is a GodI know he likes to rockHe likes his loud guitarsHis spiders from MarsAnd if there is a GodI know he's watching meHe likes what he seesBut there's trouble on the breezeSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan Read more ...
Here’s a quick round up of today’s political news:1. MORE FOOD BANKS, CHARITIES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE SHELTERS AND YOUTH SOCIAL SERVICES SET TO CLOSE OR SCALE BACK AROUND THE COUNTRY AS GOVT CUTS FUNDINGSome of Auckland's largest foodbanks are warning they may need to close or significantly reduce food parcels after ...
Iain Rennie, CNZMSecretary and Chief Executive to the TreasuryDear Secretary, Undue restrictions on restricted briefings This week, the Treasury barred representatives from four organisations, including the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi, from attending the restricted briefing for the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update. We had been ...
This is a guest post by Tim Adriaansen, a community, climate, and accessibility advocate.I won’t shut up about climate breakdown, and whenever possible I try to shift the focus of a climate conversation towards solutions. But you’ll almost never hear me give more than a passing nod to ...
A grassroots backlash has forced a backdown from Brown, but he is still eyeing up plenty of tolls for other new roads. And the pressure is on Willis to ramp up the Government’s austerity strategy. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
Hi all,I'm pretty overwhelmed by all your messages and emails today; thank you so very much.As much as my newsletter this morning was about money, and we all need to earn money, it was mostly about world domination if I'm honest. 😉I really hate what’s happening to our country, and ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 8, 2024 thru Sat, December 14, 2024. Listing by Category Like last week's summary this one contains the list of articles twice: based on categories and based on ...
I started writing this morning about Hobson’s Pledge, examining the claims they and their supporters make, basically ripping into them. But I kept getting notifications coming through, and not good ones.Each time I looked up, there was another un-subscription message, and I felt a bit sicker at the thought of ...
Once, long before there was Harry and Meghan and Dodi and all those episodes of The Crown, they came to spend some time with us, Charles and Diana. Was there anyone in the world more glamorous than the Princess of Wales?Dazzled as everyone was by their company, the leader of ...
The collective right have a problem.The entire foundation for their world view is antiscientific. Their preferred economic strategies have been disproven. Their whole neoliberal model faces accusations of corporate corruption and worsening inequality. Climate change not only definitely exists, its rapid progression demands an immediate and expensive response in order ...
Just ten days ago, South Korea's president attempted a self-coup, declaring martial law and attempting to have opposition MPs murdered or arrested in an effort to seize unconstrained power. The attempt was rapidly defeated by the national assembly voting it down and the people flooding the streets to defend democracy. ...
National has only been in power for a year, but everywhere you look, its choices are taking New Zealand a long way backwards. In no particular order, here are the National Government's Top 50 Greatest Misses of its first year in power. ...
The Government is quietly undertaking consultation on the dangerous Regulatory Standards Bill over the Christmas period to avoid too much attention. ...
The Government’s planned changes to the freedom of speech obligations of universities is little more than a front for stoking the political fires of disinformation and fear, placing teachers and students in the crosshairs. ...
The Ministry of Regulation’s report into Early Childhood Education (ECE) in Aotearoa raises serious concerns about the possibility of lowering qualification requirements, undermining quality and risking worse outcomes for tamariki, whānau, and kaiako. ...
A Bill to modernise the role of Justices of the Peace (JP), ensuring they remain active in their communities and connected with other JPs, has been put into the ballot. ...
Labour will continue to fight unsustainable and destructive projects that are able to leap-frog environment protection under National’s Fast-track Approvals Bill. ...
The Green Party has warned that a Green Government will revoke the consents of companies who override environmental protections as part of Fast-Track legislation being passed today. ...
The Green Party says the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows how the Government is failing to address the massive social and infrastructure deficits our country faces. ...
The Government’s latest move to reduce the earnings of migrant workers will not only hurt migrants but it will drive down the wages of Kiwi workers. ...
Te Pāti Māori has this morning issued a stern warning to Fast-Track applicants with interests in mining, pledging to hold them accountable through retrospective liability and to immediately revoke Fast-Track consents under a future Te Pāti Māori government. This warning comes ahead of today’s third reading of the Fast-Track Approvals ...
The Government’s announcement today of a 1.5 per cent increase to minimum wage is another blow for workers, with inflation projected to exceed the increase, meaning it’s a real terms pay reduction for many. ...
All the Government has achieved from its announcement today is to continue to push responsibility back on councils for its own lack of action to help bring down skyrocketing rates. ...
The Government has used its final post-Cabinet press conference of the year to punch down on local government without offering any credible solutions to the issues our councils are facing. ...
The Government has failed to keep its promise to ‘super charge’ the EV network, delivering just 292 chargers - less than half of the 670 chargers needed to meet its target. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Government to stop subsidising the largest user of the country’s gas supplies, Methanex, following a report highlighting the multi-national’s disproportionate influence on energy prices in Aotearoa. ...
The Green Party is appalled with the Government’s new child poverty targets that are based on a new ‘persistent poverty’ measure that could be met even with an increase in child poverty. ...
New independent analysis has revealed that the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) will reduce emissions by a measly 1 per cent by 2030, failing to set us up for the future and meeting upcoming targets. ...
The loss of 27 kaimahi at Whakaata Māori and the end of its daily news bulletin is a sad day for Māori media and another step backwards for Te Tiriti o Waitangi justice. ...
Yesterday the Government passed cruel legislation through first reading to establish a new beneficiary sanction regime that will ultimately mean more households cannot afford the basic essentials. ...
Today's passing of the Government's Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill–which allows landlords to end tenancies with no reason–ignores the voice of the people and leaves renters in limbo ahead of the festive season. ...
After wasting a year, Nicola Willis has delivered a worse deal for the Cook Strait ferries that will end up being more expensive and take longer to arrive. ...
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has today launched a Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as the All Out For Gaza rally reaches Parliament. ...
After years of advocacy, the Green Party is very happy to hear the Government has listened to our collective voices and announced the closure of the greyhound racing industry, by 1 August 2026. ...
In response to a new report from ERO, the Government has acknowledged the urgent need for consistency across the curriculum for Relationship and Sexuality Education (RSE) in schools. ...
The Green Party is appalled at the Government introducing legislation that will make it easier to penalise workers fighting for better pay and conditions. ...
Thank you for the invitation to speak with you tonight on behalf of the political party I belong to - which is New Zealand First. As we have heard before this evening the Kinleith Mill is proposing to reduce operations by focusing on pulp and discontinuing “lossmaking paper production”. They say that they are currently consulting on the plan to permanently shut ...
Auckland Central MP, Chlöe Swarbrick, has written to Mayor Wayne Brown requesting he stop the unnecessary delays on St James Theatre’s restoration. ...
Kiwis planning a swim or heading out on a boat this summer should remember to stop and think about water safety, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop and ACC and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “New Zealand’s beaches, lakes and rivers are some of the most beautiful in the ...
The Government is urging Kiwis to drive safely this summer and reminding motorists that Police will be out in force to enforce the road rules, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“This time of year can be stressful and result in poor decision-making on our roads. Whether you are travelling to see ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says Health New Zealand will move swiftly to support dozens of internationally-trained doctors already in New Zealand on their journey to employment here, after a tripling of sought-after examination places. “The Medical Council has delivered great news for hardworking overseas doctors who want to contribute ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced four appointments to New Zealand’s intelligence oversight functions. The Honourable Robert Dobson KC has been appointed Chief Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, and the Honourable Brendan Brown KC has been appointed as a Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants. The appointments of Hon Robert Dobson and Hon ...
Improvements in the average time it takes to process survey and title applications means housing developments can progress more quickly, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk says. “The government is resolutely focused on improving the building and construction pipeline,” Mr Penk says. “Applications to issue titles and subdivide land are ...
The Government’s measures to reduce airport wait times, and better transparency around flight disruptions is delivering encouraging early results for passengers ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Improving the efficiency of air travel is a priority for the Government to give passengers a smoother, more reliable ...
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...
The Government will reshape vocational education and training to return decision making to regions and enable greater industry input into work-based learning Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds says. “The redesigned system will better meet the needs of learners, industry, and the economy. It includes re-establishing regional polytechnics that ...
The Government is taking action to better manage synthetic refrigerants and reduce emissions caused by greenhouse gases found in heating and cooling products, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Regulations will be drafted to support a product stewardship scheme for synthetic refrigerants, Ms. Simmonds says. “Synthetic refrigerants are found in a ...
People travelling on State Highway 1 north of Hamilton will be relieved that remedial works and safety improvements on the Ngāruawāhia section of the Waikato Expressway were finished today, with all lanes now open to traffic, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“I would like to acknowledge the patience of road users ...
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds, has announced a new appointment to the board of Education New Zealand (ENZ). Dr Erik Lithander has been appointed as a new member of the ENZ board for a three-year term until 30 January 2028. “I would like to welcome Dr Erik Lithander to the ...
The Government will have senior representatives at Waitangi Day events around the country, including at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, but next year Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has chosen to take part in celebrations elsewhere. “It has always been my intention to celebrate Waitangi Day around the country with different ...
Two more criminal gangs will be subject to the raft of laws passed by the Coalition Government that give Police more powers to disrupt gang activity, and the intimidation they impose in our communities, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. Following an Order passed by Cabinet, from 3 February 2025 the ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Justice Christian Whata as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Whata’s appointment as a Judge of the Court of Appeal will take effect on 1 August 2025 and fill a vacancy created by the retirement of Hon Justice David Goddard on ...
The latest economic figures highlight the importance of the steps the Government has taken to restore respect for taxpayers’ money and drive economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Data released today by Stats NZ shows Gross Domestic Product fell 1 per cent in the September quarter. “Treasury and most ...
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Minister of Education David Seymour today announced legislation changes to strengthen freedom of speech obligations on universities. “Freedom of speech is fundamental to the concept of academic freedom and there is concern that universities seem to be taking a more risk-averse ...
Police Minister, Mark Mitchell, and Internal Affairs Minister, Brooke van Velden, today launched a further Public Safety Network cellular service that alongside last year’s Cellular Roaming roll-out, puts globally-leading cellular communications capability into the hands of our emergency responders. The Public Safety Network’s new Cellular Priority service means Police, Wellington ...
State Highway 1 through the Mangamuka Gorge has officially reopened today, providing a critical link for Northlanders and offering much-needed relief ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“The Mangamuka Gorge is a vital route for Northland, carrying around 1,300 vehicles per day and connecting the Far ...
The Government has welcomed decisions by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) and Ashburton District Council confirming funding to boost resilience in the Canterbury region, with construction on a second Ashburton Bridge expected to begin in 2026, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering a second Ashburton Bridge to improve resilience and ...
The Government is backing the response into high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Otago, Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says. “Cabinet has approved new funding of $20 million to enable MPI to meet unbudgeted ongoing expenses associated with the H7N6 response including rigorous scientific testing of samples at the enhanced PC3 ...
Legislation that will repeal all advertising restrictions for broadcasters on Sundays and public holidays has passed through first reading in Parliament today, Media Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “As a growing share of audiences get their news and entertainment from streaming services, these restrictions have become increasingly redundant. New Zealand on ...
Today the House agreed to Brendan Horsley being appointed Inspector-General of Defence, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Mr Horsley’s experience will be invaluable in overseeing the establishment of the new office and its support networks. “He is currently Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, having held that role since June 2020. ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the final regulations for the levy on insurance contracts that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand from July 2026. “Earlier this year the Government agreed to a 2.2 percent increase to the rate of levy. Fire ...
The Government is delivering regulatory relief for New Zealand businesses through changes to the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. “The Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Amendment Bill, which was introduced today, is the second Bill – the other being the Statutes Amendment Bill - that ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed further progress on the Hawke’s Bay Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS), with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board approving funding for the detailed design of Stage 1, paving the way for main works construction to begin in late 2025.“The Government is moving at ...
The Government today released a request for information (RFI) to seeking interest in partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned land with low farming and conservation value (excluding National Parks) Forestry Minister Todd McClay announced. “Planting trees on Crown-owned land will drive economic growth by creating more forestry jobs in our regions, providing more wood ...
Court timeliness, access to justice, and improving the quality of existing regulation are the focus of a series of law changes introduced to Parliament today by Associate Minister of Justice Nicole McKee. The three Bills in the Regulatory Systems (Justice) Amendment Bill package each improve a different part of the ...
A total of 41 appointments and reappointments have been made to the 12 community trusts around New Zealand that serve their regions, Associate Finance Minister Shane Jones says. “These trusts, and the communities they serve from the Far North to the deep south, will benefit from the rich experience, knowledge, ...
The Government has confirmed how it will provide redress to survivors who were tortured at the Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital Child and Adolescent Unit (the Lake Alice Unit). “The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care found that many of the 362 children who went through the Lake Alice Unit between 1972 and ...
It has been a busy, productive year in the House as the coalition Government works hard to get New Zealand back on track, Leader of the House Chris Bishop says. “This Government promised to rebuild the economy, restore law and order and reduce the cost of living. Our record this ...
“Accelerated silicosis is an emerging occupational disease caused by unsafe work such as engineered stone benchtops. I am running a standalone consultation on engineered stone to understand what the industry is currently doing to manage the risks, and whether further regulatory intervention is needed,” says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister ...
Mehemea he pai mō te tangata, mahia – if it’s good for the people, get on with it. Enhanced reporting on the public sector’s delivery of Treaty settlement commitments will help improve outcomes for Māori and all New Zealanders, Māori Crown Relations Minister Tama Potaka says. Compiled together for the ...
Mr Roger Holmes Miller and Ms Tarita Hutchinson have been appointed to the Charities Registration Board, Community and Voluntary Sector Minister Louise Upston says. “I would like to welcome the new members joining the Charities Registration Board. “The appointment of Ms Hutchinson and Mr Miller will strengthen the Board’s capacity ...
More building consent and code compliance applications are being processed within the statutory timeframe since the Government required councils to submit quarterly data, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “In the midst of a housing shortage we need to look at every step of the build process for efficiencies ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey is proud to announce the first three recipients of the Government’s $10 million Mental Health and Addiction Community Sector Innovation Fund which will enable more Kiwis faster access to mental health and addiction support. “This fund is part of the Government’s commitment to investing in ...
New Zealand is providing Vanuatu assistance following yesterday's devastating earthquake, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. "Vanuatu is a member of our Pacific family and we are supporting it in this time of acute need," Mr Peters says. "Our thoughts are with the people of Vanuatu, and we will be ...
The Government welcomes the Commerce Commission’s plan to reduce card fees for Kiwis by an estimated $260 million a year, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.“The Government is relentlessly focused on reducing the cost of living, so Kiwis can keep more of their hard-earned income and live a ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour has welcomed the Early Childhood Education (ECE) regulatory review report, the first major report from the Ministry for Regulation. The report makes 15 recommendations to modernise and simplify regulations across ECE so services can get on with what they do best – providing safe, high-quality care ...
The Government‘s Offshore Renewable Energy Bill to create a new regulatory regime that will enable firms to construct offshore wind generation has passed its first reading in Parliament, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says.“New Zealand currently does not have a regulatory regime for offshore renewable energy as the previous government failed ...
Summer reissue: Was it a false measurement, a full-blown conspiracy or just some mild incompetence? Mad Chapman uncovers the truth of Maddi Wesche’s final throw. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Old, Associate Professor, Biology, Zoology, Animal Science, Western Sydney University Dmitry Chulov, Shutterstock At this time of year, images of reindeer are everywhere. I’ve had a soft spot for reindeer ever since I was a little girl. Doesn’t everyone? ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grozdana Manalo, Career Services Manager (Education), University of Sydney hedgehog94/Shutterstock Getting casual work over summer, or a part-time job that you might continue once your tertiary course starts, can be a great way to get workplace experience and earn some extra ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ty Ferguson, Research associate in exercise, nutrition and activity, University of South Australia Peera_Stockfoto/Shutterstock It’s never been easier to stay connected to work. Even when we’re on leave, our phones and laptops keep us tethered. Many of us promise ourselves we ...
The NZ Media Council upheld the complaint under principle four: comment and fact On 5 September 2024, The Spinoff published a brief article titled Made in Palestine, found in 1970s Hastings, which highlighted an upcoming art exhibition featuring photographs of vintage cosmetic products labelled “Made in Palestine.” The piece, described ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kasey Symons, Lecturer of Communication, Sports Media, Deakin University We are well and truly in cricket season. The Australian men’s cricket team is taking centre stage against India in the Border Gavaskar Trophy series while the Big Bash League is underway, as ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Woods, Lecturer, Nursing, Faculty of Health, Southern Cross University FTiare/Shutterstock Summer is here and for many that means going to the beach. You grab your swimmers, beach towel and sunscreen then maybe check the weather forecast. Did you think to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saman Khalesi, Senior Lecturer and Discipline Lead in Nutrition, School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, CQUniversity Australia Dean Clarke/Shutterstock The holiday season can be a time of joy, celebration, and indulgence in delicious foods and meals. However, for many, it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia Late Night With The Devil. Maslow Entertainment Marketing is critical to the success of commercial films, and companies will often spend half as much again on top of the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Francisco Jose Testa, Lecturer in Earth Sciences (Mineralogy, Petrology & Geochemistry), University of Tasmania The Conversation As a kid, it was tough for me to grasp the massive time scale of Earth’s history. Now, with nearly two decades of experience as ...
Te Pāti Māori has had to adopt a new way of debating, operating and even thinking in Parliament in response to the Government’s “onslaught” against te ao Māori, co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer says.In an end-of-year interview with Newsroom, the Te Tai Hauauru MP reflected on how 2024 has differed from her ...
Opinion: The latest Trends in International Mathematics and Science report was announced earlier this month, yet it didn’t get the flurry of media attention and political hand-wringing that typically accompanies these announcements. This might be because it presented good news, or you could argue, no news; the results paint a ...
NewsroomBy Dr Lisa Darragh, Dr Raewyn Eden and Dr David Pomeroy
At long last, The Spinoff shells out for a nut ranking. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today.It recently came to The Spinoff’s attention ...
I was one of hundreds of people who lost my government job this week. Here’s exactly how it played out. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a ...
Summer reissue: One anxiously attentive passenger pays attention to an in-flight safety video, and wonders ‘Why can’t I pick up my own phone?’ The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up ...
Summer reissue: Why do those Lange-Douglas years cast such a long shadow 40 years on? The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read our open letter and sign up to be a member today. First published June ...
The Government’s social housing agency has backed out of a billion-dollar infrastructure alliance that would have built about 6000 new homes in Auckland – less than 18 months after signing a five-year extension.Labour says the decision to rip up the contract and sell off existing state houses could lead to ...
An unrelenting faith in “swift transition” has driven Tauranga Whai to their first Tauihi Basketball Aotearoa championship. At a boisterous Queen Elizabeth Youth Centre, the visiting Tokomanawa Queens were blown away 90-71 in the final.Whai led by 20 points at halftime as their urgent movement and unflinching faith in three-point shooting from anywhere ...
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ByKoroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor New Zealand’s Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) says impending bad weather for Port Vila is now the most significant post-quake hazard. A tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected to move into Vanuatu waters, bringing heavy rainfall. Authorities have issued warnings to people ...
Cosmic CatastropheThe year draws to a close.King Luxon has grown tired of the long eveningsListening to the dreary squabbling of his Triumvirate.He strolls up to the top floor of the PalaceTo consult with his Astronomer Royal.The Royal Telescope scans the skies,And King Luxon stares up into the heavensFrom the terrestrial ...
Spinoff editor Mad Chapman and books editor Claire Mabey debate Carl Shuker’s new novel about… an editor. Claire: Hello Mad, you just finished The Royal Free – overall impressions? Mad: Hi Claire, I literally just put the book down and I would have to say my immediate impression is ...
Christmas and its buildup are often lonely, hard and full of unreasonable expectations. Here’s how to make it to Jesus’s birthday and find the little bit of joy we all deserve. Have you found this year relentless? Has the latest Apple update “fucked up your life”? Have you lost two ...
Despite overwhelming public and corporate support, the government has stalled progress on a modern day slavery law. That puts us behind other countries – and makes Christmas a time of tragedy rather than joy, argues Shanti Mathias. Picture the scene on Christmas Day. Everyone replete with nice things to eat, ...
Asia Pacific Report “It looks like Hiroshima. It looks like Germany at the end of World War Two,” says an Israeli-American historian and professor of holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University about the horrifying reality of Gaza. Professor Omer Bartov, has described Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza as an ...
The New Zealand government coalition is tweaking university regulations to curb what it says is an increasingly “risk-averse approach” to free speech. The proposed changes will set clear expectations on how universities should approach freedom of speech issues. Each university will then have to adopt a “freedom of speech statement” ...
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone New York prosecutors have charged Luigi Mangione with “murder as an act of terrorism” in his alleged shooting of health insurance CEO Brian Thompson earlier this month. This news comes out at the same time as ...
Pacific Media Watch The union for Australian journalists has welcomed the delivery by the federal government of more than $150 million to support the sustainability of public interest journalism over the next four years. Combined with the announcement of the revamped News Bargaining Initiative, this could result in up to ...
MONDAY“Merry Xmas, and praise the Lord,” said Sheriff Luxon, and smiled for the camera. There was a flash of smoke when the shutter pressed down on the magnesium powder. The sheriff had arranged for a photographer from the Dodge Gazette to attend a ceremony where he handed out food parcels to ...
It’s a little under two months since the White Ferns shocked the cricketing world, deservedly taking home the T20 World Cup. Since then the trophy has had a tour around the country, five of the squad have played in the WBBL in Australia while most others have returned to domestic ...
Comment: If we say the word ‘dementia’, many will picture an older person struggling to remember the names of their loved ones, maybe a grandparent living out their final years in an aged care facility. Dementia can also occur in people younger than 65, but it can take time before ...
Piracy is a reality of modern life – but copyright law has struggled to play catch-up for as long as the entertainment industry has existed. As far back as 1988, the House of Lords criticised copyright law’s conflict with the reality of human behaviour in the context of burning cassette ...
Hang in there Simon! Just remember, Bill led the party to a vote share of 20.93% yet he went on to become Prime Munster. Helen had 6 years of lousy polling and one lost election before she succeeded. You can do it, Simon. Have faith and tough it out!
It can't open and close gates or do fencing. Yet. But it’s got rolling in something nasty sorted.
https://www.sciencealert.com/spot-the-robot-dog-is-now-herding-sheep-in-new-zealand
That was interesting and kind of creepy.
One immediate potential application that comes to mind is precision application of agrichemicals. Instead of spraying massive amounts of fertilizer or pesticide or weedkillers indiscriminately, send a bunch of robospots out to just do spot applications wherever needed.
and crowd control (there they can spray the nasty chemicals), or maybe replace wardens and turn keys in prisons, oh my gosh the applications for spotty the robot dog are endless and we don't even need to walk him or feed him.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-52619568/coronavirus-robot-dog-enforces-social-distancing-in-singapore-park
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/meet-robot-dog-enforcing-social-distancing-singapore
mind shepherding truly is an activitie where lots of people mingle and get infected, right? So many people all working soooo close together. 🙂
As an introvert, I'm finding the new social acceptability of distancing to be the best thing ever. So I'm struggling to come up with any objection to what's happening in your two links.
I'm angling for wangling a way to extend the social distancing for ever
I'm sorry I'm compromised I'll say for any invitation more than 10 , which is my upper comfort limit
Or just save us all time and energy and switch to RegenAg instead.
How bucolic.
Yeah. When they take over, I'm really going to miss the dulcet tones of small petrol engines and large diesels. All lacking effective mufflers on their exhausts.
Another aspect is that these could improve productivity in tropical agriculture which has traditionally been limited by the intensive labour needed for the crops grown in these climates.
That could conceivably change the prospects for chronically poor nations like the Phillipines.
I think it would be difficult to replace humans in agriculture, without inviting a world of trouble .
We already reap the bitter rewards of factory farming
There's a true stewardship of the soil thats not just about inputs and outputs , spraying for pests and diseases etc , as if the earth is a mechanical being
Regenerative agriculture depends on acute observation over time ,and an intuitive "learning" of each complex environment
Only humans can have the serendipitous moments necessary
I totally understand what you are saying; it makes sense and I've no argument. I wasn't imagining humans being replaced. As an automation engineer I've had the chance to see the impact up close and personal’ and everything I’ve seen is that automation works to amplify and assist human capacity. It has no independent existence.
In my view no automation or AI system will ever replace human consciousness. Superhuman AI will turn out to be one of what Vernor Vinge called 'the failed dreams'.
The reason is that consciousness is not computational. (And if Roger Penrose says so that's good enough for me.)
Where machines shine is being able to do the simple routine tasks that are able to be condensed into an algorithm. Thereby freeing up time for humans to be able to do more observing, learning, and synthesis of new and different ways of doing things.
which is good in a factory, not so much in nature.
Shocking to some I know, but farms are nature not factories.
W've been hearing about autonomous ships for decades, now.
In reality they haven't even developed controls and machinery, that can get reliably through a day, without human intervention.
I really don't get the whole automation ideology. Let's use that where appropriate, but there's nothing wrong with people doing things. Lots of people love growing food (and I assume love working on ships), so why not take advantage of that and design systems that are good for people and are functional.
Yup. And that's the general pattern, automation is best thought of as a tool to extend human capacity, not to replace it.
In reality they haven't even developed controls and machinery, that can get reliably through a day, without human intervention.
I once got a major water treatment plant to run autonomously for 9 days without operator intervention … it was quite an accomplishment!
But in general you are right, and it's my view that the prime role of automation is to reliably control the routine, predictable tasks and free up the humans involved so that they can focus their much more flexible and creative energies on higher value add.
Autopilots are a good example you will familiar with, no-one hand steers any more than they have to or enjoy doing these days. And the modern versions do a better job of holding track than a human anyway. On the other hand deciding where the track should be plotted still remains a task better suited to people. Usually.
RL Now that's a point. The temp is said to be going beyond what humans can cope with working in the fields growing food, and can’t do enough with new tech or have enough covers, already is in India etc. So robots to do that would make sense. Unfortunately, the way our 'civilisation' is configured these days, the good of robotising will be compromised by the attack/defence capabilities. But what can't be cured must be endured perhaps.
Funny. Yesty, the boss was talking about her teen son's idea.
Getting 2 or 3 lawnmower robots. We have about 60 lawns ranging from about 2 square metres up to around 50 square metres.
I smiled enthusiastically when mention of a drone to control them came up.
What about thoughts of having city lawn clippings as base for silage for farmers? Ever pursued that idea gsays, it would have to be planned, done carefully, a range of weeds kept out and no spraying, and people take responsibility but it could mean free lawn mowing for them.
I work in a senior lifestyle village.
Rather than silage, I investigated and proposed composting of grass clippings, leaf mulch, tree trimmings and the kitchen scraps.
The compost would be returned to the sub standard soil that is found in most new housing developments.
Long story short (too late!), the residents had concerns about appearances, smell and rats. The management didn't see the benefits…. I have walked this earth long enough to try and convince folk against their will.
Every time I tip another catcher full of clippings into the skip bin, a little part of me dies. Then the last two frosty mornings the bin has been toasty warm with the decomposition starting up.
I read a while back that the DCC had bought a remote control lawnmower – still needed a remote control unit run by an operator, but it was intended to make mowing slopes safer. Ah, here we are.
The fun question is "if the drone controls the mowers, what controls how the drone controls the mowers?"
Not sure I like the idea of autonomous mowers – we don't need to give our robots-gone-berserk edged weapons. Very sci-fi peasant revolt, that.
Ha. Reminds me of my Dad telling us, about the self propelled mower that got away from him, and ended up drowned in the Avon. Briggs and Stratton petrol reel mower, of course.
More recently the automated straddle carrier, that made a bid for freedom in a Dutch port. Through the gate and down the street.
My own favourite machinery with a life of their own, are Lister and Gardener diesels, that have to be thoroughly suffocated to get them to stop. Unlike modern ones, where one dud chip on an electronics board can kill them
On an unrelated subject, I was on University Tube looking to upgrade my drill press with a DC permanent magnet motor from a treadmill…
Anyhow, one of the videos talked about fancy saw benches have 'flesh detectors', that shut down the motor when your fingers get too close.
I figure these lawn automatons would have a similar tech involved.
I suspect it's easier to train a computer to distinguish between wood and a finger than it is between fresh mulch or dog turds and a finger.
Easier to train as long as your willing to lose a bunch of fingers getting there.
The SawStop works by running a small electric current through the saw blade and detecting when its interrupted by an electrically conductive body part.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SawStop
Thanks for the reading.
There are 10 table saw amputations a day in the US.
" After numerous tests using a hot dog as a finger-analog, in spring 2000, Gass conducted the first test with a real human finger: he applied Novocain to his left ring finger, and after two false starts, he placed his finger into the teeth of a whirring saw blade. The blade stopped as designed, and although it "hurt like the dickens and bled a lot," his finger remained intact."
sends a shudder down the spine.
I have gone to a mates workshop to find doors open, blood spattered table saw outside and no-one around.
He lost his right index finger-tip.
Ever seen the Black Mirror series?
There's an episode with post-apocalyptic survivors being hunted by super wired dog robots.Horrifying
Metalheads, my first thought too, brilliant episode, brilliant series. Check out Black Mirrors creator Charlie Brookers Anti Viral Wipe (about UKs response to pandemic) on YouTube for a good laugh and also quite insightful.
I've been a fan of Charlie Brooker's since he wrote for nerdy games mag, PC Zone during the '90s. He's viciously hilarious and his books are great. They should really make him PM.
Yes and it will happen too. All tools get misused, the problem is always the workman.
a bad tool blames the workman!
thats a T shirt!
No. But I can imagine.
I also think that the military in many countries will already be/or looking into weaponising these.
Yup. Absolutely and we will live to see the horror. Sorry if that comes across as grim.
Might not be age-appropriate for the TS audience, but after having and reading the Harry Potter series to four children – (should have bought Stephen Fry's audiobooks when they came out) your Grim reference immediately struck me as appropriate.
" The Grim is an omen of death, which is reputed to bring about the demise of the person who encounters it. The Grim takes the shape of a large, black, menaching, spectral dog. "
(BTW: Still trying to keep the offspring reading. Just bought two Terry Pratchett novels for the nineteen year old's birthday next week. It's a shared enjoyment.)
Pratchett is wonderful; he's the only other author I still keep a full collection of every published novel I could buy. (The other is of course Vernor Vinge.)
Going Postal was pure genius.
Thanks, will check out Vernor Vinge for him. He's still likes collections…
He has the book for Going Postal, and we all enjoyed the miniseries. Even the youngest.
Was delighted to find four pristine Pratchett hardcover books in our local charity shop last year – 25c each.
I absolutely HATE shopping, but I was embarrassingly overjoyed to make that purchase.
My first read was the Peace War trilogy which I'd imagine would appeal to a young adult. Then there is the Zone of Thought series starting with A Fire Upon the Deep that I regard as absolute scifi masterpieces, but are longer reads.
Vinge was a computer scientist and mathematician and brings a similar veritas to his work that Asimov did.
Can't go wrong by reading Pratchett Red. I like the Big Bang Theory in one of his Disc world novels. Mort I think. I have it somewhere, will have to have a read of it again.
… In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.
The wonderful Bob Clarkson (former MP) was just on the radio nationale. Said Todd is the equal of Simon, and would definitely be better than the "communist" currently in charge.
Thank you Bob, for capturing the mood of the nation…
Bob who?
Worth repeating (from Colmar Brunton thread):
28% of National voters disapprove of the "communist". That's 28% out of 29% which is … *counts fingers* … single digits.
They don't even understand their own voters, never mind the rest of the country.
haha was that Bob the Builder , who briefly ousted Winnie?
And then replaced by Bridges. The rising star.
It'll be quite the twist of fate if Bridges leaves Parliament before Peters. He already knows he won't rise as high in government. Ouch.
Wonder if he's willing to bet his left testicle?
This is all getting a little incestuous:
Peters = former MP for Tauranga
Clarkson = former MP for Tauranga
Bridges = current MP for Tauranga
Muller = current MP for a Seat that is basically Tauranga Suburbs
"Communist", really?
Last time I looked, there was no nationalisation of businesses without compensation, collectivisation of land and agriculture or even purges of those seen as enemies of the state, unless you count Mike Hosking leaving 7 Sharp.
People need to start calling the likes of Clarkson out.
You are calling him out.
Why argue with someone who is so thick he thinks Ardern is a communist?
"Mr Clarkson, the Prime Minister's critics say she has focused too much on keeping you alive, are you one of them?"
A quick Google of 'Bob Clarkson MP' found that he had been called out by quite a few people in the media.
Issues with Bob the Builder involved anti-gay and anti Muslim comments, stoushes with family over money, blaming people who lived near industrial sites for complaining about heath problems from dust.
Now we find he doesn't like our "Communist" PM even though he does call by her first name. I presume that local National people called him out because he only had one term as Tauranga MP. Later news said he was leaving to join ACT.
After all these years, a one term wonder is called back to comment on Bridges and Muller on RNZ. I listened to the interview. It's an interesting interview from the point of view of personal values and political support.
RNZ did neither Muller or Bridges a favour by allying such support to them from this man.
"Our rights are being violated. That is all actually real," Stokes said. "But this is one of the few times that's ok. Pandemics – these call for a collectivist response. They don't work without one." An American gun rights activist gets it, the people calling Labour communist don't.
I remember it was a trap lefties got into when National/Key were flying high, disparaging their supporters as stupid etc, I see it with the righties now, didn't work for us and shouldn't for them either.
Also, I watched the One News last night, first time in years, and I waited to see what the Muller guy was gonna be like, and they had no footage, just some friends saying he wss a good "bugger" & that "maoris stole his flash sandwiches at school", or something.
One last thing, to me the Labour numbers proves no one is listening to Hosking, Garner etc or reading the Herald.
Who thought it was a good idea to put him up to give public comment and use airtime? He's a has been of the worst sort and his opinion as irrelevant as most of the public. It smacks of irresponsible journalists. What is national radio's guidelines for selecting commentators?
Interesting Guardian article yesterday about negative interest rates coming up in the UK.
It refers to the Danish Jyske Bank which launched it's first negative interest mortgage rate last year:
I'm thinking there may be benefits for this happening in New Zealand.
1. Palatable or not, those best able to weather the financial implications of Covid will most often be those who have the excess income, and ability to amass savings. They will not gain interest but they will also retain equity on their savings, unless the savings are more than a specified amount, such as in Sweden:
Those implications may mean that those with money may choose to invest in businesses or spend it which will circulate that money and improve the economy recovery.
2. For mortgage holders, this will allow a practical relief from the financial commitment of a mortgage, while still maintaining a payment relationship with their bank. It may be able – in many cases – to offset financial hardship resulting from reduced pay or unemployment.
3. A further benefit is, that if housing prices fall significantly (which would be a huge benefit to society) those who have entered the market lately, when it is most inflated, will have a reduced payment for the rest of the mortgage, offsetting a larger amount of equity loss than those who are at the end of their mortgages.
That is, if a mortgage has been taken out for $500,000 today and goes for twenty years at 4.0% paid weekly, the interest paid over that time is $226,569 accounting for just over 31% If of payments during that time. (NB: I used the stuff mortgage calculator for these calculations)
If that mortgage is transferred to what the Jyse bank offers there are two options:
a. Keep the 20 year term and reduce the weekly payment to $481
b: Retain your existing weekly payment of $699 and reduce your term to 14 years.
c: A combination of either above.
This is a reduction of around 30% of current mortgage commitments on offer. This provides a cushion for house prices to fall – 20-25% or more without causing excessive financial harm for home owners and tenants.
For me, the elegance of this proposal is that those who are at the end of their mortgages – and will not gain as much benefit as those at the beginning – will have, during their mortgage term have already accumulated untaxed, and inflated capital gains so their direct investment will still be higher than what they have contributed. In fact, any mortgage transferring over will have built into it a proportional cost/benefit that relates to the loss of equity if house prices fall vs the reduction in interest payable on that property.
This is kind of a follow up comment to the article I posted from the NEF last week.
I am coming from the perspective that house prices and rental costs need to fall significantly – and have needed to for a while. I also understand that many NZers have all their financial wealth and security in their homes, and need to be considered.
I would like to see our government administer or legislate for such a solution.
Ideally, it would be a government agency, such as the State Advances Corporation that provided home loans to ex-servicemen.
To facilitate rollout it may be necessary to provide in tranches depending on owner/occupier and citizenship status. I'd personally delay offering to family trusts or LLC's or overseas residents because their choice of vehicle provides them with some insulation from taxes, expense and financial shocks already.
I'd be interested to hear from others about problems they can see with this proposal, to see if there are any kinks that needed to be worked out if it was to be a practical and possible option.
(Quick correction: Just noticed the -0.5% bank rate only applies to 10 years and I used it for the whole 20 yr term, which is only offered at 0%. Will update on next comment)
… still a term reduction of 6 years according to stuff at $699/wk.
Hi Molly, it's a trend to watch for sure. When I grew up & got a savings account the bank paid me 3% interest to deposit money in it. Banking then had a structural incentive to get more custom. We may be returning to it!
John Campbell interviewed a young asian guy who spoke our lingo like a kiwi a few days ago, about quantitative easing. He was representing the Reserve Bank on the TVNZ breakfast show. They've recently doubled their qe. He said the new money gets created as electronic credit (which I knew), which would have confounded many viewers but he was refreshingly forthright and sensible in not spooking them by calling those dollars imaginary. They become real when digitally invented.
So the way to keep the economy going now is to invent money. Farmers could use this thinking in times of drought, eh? Invent rain. How? Well, easiest way is to catch and store it when it falls. They could call that process water conservation. Conservatives ought to conserve, eh? You'd think. The reason farmers don't is because they believe rain always falls eventually. As Tom Petty once sang "the waiting is the hardest part"…
Catching and storing rain is fine for targeted irrigation but the dam needs to be half the size of the farm for an effective grazing regime. And it does rain most of the time.
The numbers around volume and weight for just 20mm on a thousand hectare farm are astronomical. Clever farming is a better option.
That's utter nonsense.
And even if it were true (it's total crap) aquaculture is more productive than farming, because gravity.
I think the most important thing to understand about all this stuff was highlighted to me simply by the US economist Randell Wray (and recently I heard this idea repeated by the US Fed chairman in a public interview where he encouraged the US treasury to spend more).
The statement (miss-quoted) is "the central bank lends and the treasury spends". Treasury spending gets spending moving including when facilitated by central QE programs to lower the government interest rates, but all the monetary policy stuff done by the central bank is about changing the interest rates and so all depends on the amount of interest in taking on loans.
Hi Dennis, good analogy.
Using that analogy, I would say that would require the government to direct the rain to fall more equitably, instead of providing torrential downpours on dams and giving the control to commercial banks and saying turn the taps on as you wish. (Or don't.)
You mean a Chinese New Zealander or suchlike?
This fine gentleman?
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/about-us/senior-management/yuong-ha
Yeah, that's him. Came across well, I thought.
A post about many of the incorrect things you will hear said about government spending and its impacts on the economy. In this case highlighting that the Bank of England is presently falsifying many of these ideas.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=45026
That's a very interesting thing to observe, seeing this in practice doesn't make much sense to me however.
Negative interest rates (which I believe Sweden's central bank is running) mean that the banks deposits with the central bank lose money. Collectively there is no way for the financial sector to rid itself of these excess deposits (other than lending them to the government) as any payments they make then go to another large financial institution. The upshot of this is that government debt often ends up lending at negative interest rates which are however lower than what the central bank is offering.
This is what is going on with the charges banks are setting for holding onto large deposits.
What makes little sense to me however is public loans at negative interest rates, and I suspect there is some missing piece such as a small number of these loans are made as an advertising ploy by the bank. The reason I understand things this way is because the interest component paid on a loan is basically the income part of the arrangement for the bank. If there is negative income to the arrangement then it makes little sense to enter into the loan agreement. Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game.
Your concerns are already covered in the comment, Nic. This is about ensuring everyone gets through intact. No interest on deposits does not remove equity, just encourages direct investment and spending.
" Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game. "
Banks still can charge fees, as I believe Jyske does, but not excessively. Long-time the banks will be able to survive, and their chance of survival improves if the majority of their customers are financially secure. But we have businesses – banks included – that are not used to long-term thinking.
And why can't the government play the game to benefit all NZers?
Molly, I'm not saying it would be a bad thing if this happened. I just think its unlikely to be something which can be setup as a widespread part of the financial system, as your expecting banks to engage in widespread unprofitable lending. The long term thinking on that game is to stop being in the business of banking.
I did consider that this can be a way to shrink the financial system which might be a good thing to do to some extent. I do think this aligns with something which seems to be not widely understood, but low (or even negative) interest rates are actually less favorable to banks than the high interest rates, which are supposed to be restraining their lending.
I understand. But I'm not worried about the banks incentives. So, far the banks are not offering anything that doesn't improve their income substantially in the long term – which the mortgage holidays do. What the rent holidays don't necessarily do – is improve the financial security and well being of their clients.
So, I'm trying to look at it from the perspective of the people of NZ, taking into account the inflated cost of housing that has continued not to be addressed, AND the NZ cultural attachment to housing as financial security. That is the problem I'm talking about and trying to address – not how to retain the bank as a commercial entity.
The facts became somewhat more clear when I read the guardian article in full. First its a Danish bank (which I was calling Swedish) and second the banks still make profit on the loans due to the associated fees.
I suspect that in their banking system these fees are much higher than in New Zealand which has a much higher rate difference between the central bank (and money market interest rates) and commercial bank interest rates. In New Zealand the fees component is typically very small and often waived. This structure makes the New Zealand banks profitability much more opaque.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_industry_of_Denmark
I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending.
"I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending. "
I agree, and we need to start quantifying those benefits by some means in order to know where to rebuild the economy and support NZers. SROI (Social Return on Investment) has been around for a while now, but is not often referred to in policy statements or media articles while expected returns from events such as the America's Cup are calculated and accepted without much scrutiny.
I guess – without going into the role of the central bank – any single bank would make money by taking a deposit of $10k and then repaying $9500. It loans the $10k on mortgage but receives repayments of say $9700. So it would still have a $200 margin. I made the figures up for the above.
Its a question of how far $200 goes to paying the banks employees though, and also why you do if the borrower defaults (e.g stops making repayments).
Same as banking now I expect – the margin plus any fees need to cover the banks expenses plus profit.
Absolutely. As I highlighted in other comments in Denmark they pay a lot more in fees (including an annual percentage of the loan, as a fee), in New Zealand all the payments are rolled into interest rates, so by focusing on just the interest rates this is a bit miss leading when compared to New Zealand.
Yes, I understand that as well. Which is why I have suggested a Government run system that reduces those costs as much as possible.
The banks have been very profitable and have no incentive to reduce their income from clients or reducing the inflated housing costs. They are financially better off when these are as high as possible.
A government agency – however – can consider SROI when calculating cost/benefit and a create a system that does not need mortgage brokers and refixing every two-three years. A young relative working for one of the big four banks in the mortgage lending department receives quarterly bonuses in the tens of thousands for the process of refixing existing loans or signing up new ones. There's a lot of extraneous extras that are lost when a constant long-term loan at a fixed rate is entered into.
A bank in Switzerland is already doing that – charging clients for deposits over a certain amount.
"Swiss banks are to start charging their super-rich clients to look after their piles of cash.
UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, told its ultra-wealthy clients on Tuesday that it would introduce an annual 0.6% charge on cash savings of more than €500,000 (£461,000). The fee, to be introduced in November, rises to 0.75% on savings of more than 2m Swiss francs (£1.7m).
The minimum fee is €3,000 a year. Savings of 2m francs would attract an annual charge of 15,000 francs."
In terms of addressing the mechanisms that produce inequality, this may also go some way to improve it. At a certain point when you have met all your financial requirements to live, and have saved enough to be secure, the current financial environment allows wealth to multiply and accumulate.
Note: The Jyske bank also charges fees that cover admin and employment costs, but they are not excessive.
Following the discussion with RedLogix above the following thoughts from the character of Samuel Vines seem appropriate:
“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.
Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.
But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet."
This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.” – Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms: The Play
Terry Pratchett, economist.
Already thought of a possible improvement while AFK:
IF landlords on a property take this option, they have to take the same term and the reduced payment amount and pass on at least 80% of that saving to the tenants. That would reduce financial rental pressure immediately.
That will happen anyway in current situation …and considerably faster.
Negative rates are a very slow way of unwinding the effects of QE…. especially at -0.5%.
Why and how do you think that will happen?
I would expect quite a lot of turmoil for both homeowners, landlords and tenants that are financially stressed, and this mechanism might be a way of providing security in terms of housing without a lot of changes in ownership. (As well as providing a needed downwards pressure on housing and rental prices)
“Negative rates are a very slow way of unwinding the effects of QE…. especially at -0.5%.”
And why is slow considered a negative? This does allow a downward movement in housing prices and rentals – at -0.5% a 31% neutral position compared to maintaining the same mortgage at the current 4%.
Given the love affair and financial security many NZers have with property, we need a plan to allow many to still feel and be financially secure while creating a more affordable housing environment for all.
Any other ideas on how to do that would be great… because many have been waiting quite a while to access housing that is affordable and healthy without needing to overcrowd…
Thousands of under-utilised Air BnB properties, high and increasing unemployment, increasing State housing provision will drive it…..the same forces that will drive down property prices.
Slow is considered negative because the need is now….the tenants and mortgagees cannot wait years or decades for the ratios to begin to become aligned with the real economy again.
The RBNZ backstopping the banks is (I expect) designed to support that deflation while enabling bank viability….it would not surprise to see them take on the bad loan books of the banks and administer those mortgages in the near term to remove them from the private balance sheets. Hopefully they will have a mechanism to support owner occupied to continue and foreclose investment properties.
The mechanism you state, which is left to circumstance and commercial entities, will disrupt a lot of homeowners, landlords and tenants. The disruption may also continue for some time, and will result in NZers losing out – not banks who have benefitted from increasing debt levels for many years now. It just depends on where priorities lie.
There will also be a fast response time to reduced mortgages – for financially strapped owners and tenants.
If your housing costs are reduced immediately by 20-30% to offset the financial downturn and resulting constricting household incomes, then there is less likely to be disruption by the need to move or sell – AND find somewhere else to live. (Although, I think there still will be disruption and devastation, just perhaps reduced)
I do agree that the state has to be more involved to direct the fallout, and ensure long-term benefits to NZers.
negative rates won't create that scale or speed of reduction (immediate)…and as stated the reduction is going to occur anyway, negative rates or not.
And negative rates create other problems that make the whole regime problematic.
The mechanism I outlined is hardly left to commercial entities and circumstance (market forces) for it involves market intervention by the state…..and its not as if it hasn't been done before.
Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same.
P.S. disruption is not going to be avoided no matter what is done.
" Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same. "
What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result.
And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash? Another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard.
(Already conceded disruption will occur, just looking to reduce the impact, while supporting NZ people – not entities)
"What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result."
When the mortgage we had taken out at 8% hit 19% we applied for a housing corp refinance and from memory the rate was 11%…and the term extended to 24 years (greater than available in the market)…the result was we didn't lose our home.
"And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash?"
The market is going to crash whether we like it or not…the only question is by how much. I have outlined how I believe the RBNZ will reduce the fallout….remember they are required by statute to ensure the stability of the banking system but they have also stated the property ratios are unsustainable and create instability so really their options are very limited.
And if they bail out investors (in both residential and commercial) they create the same problem for themselves that the Fed did with their QE programme….they become captured by the underwrite and cannot withdraw it….which ultimately runs counter to their charter.
"another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard."
Gov is partially addressing this with increased social housing build and the improving standards can be covered by increased trades training though its not a given….there is room for much more particularly in regard to CC and density as Susan Krumdieck promotes.
I'm someone who thinks the inflated housing prices do need to come down – both for purchase and for rent.
The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them.
You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit.
I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers.
Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens.
The current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is taken.
As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants.
"The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them."
You appear to misunderstand …the equity adjustment is going to occur….and as it does we can (and I suspect will) provision home owners to remain in their homes.
"You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit."
Support for homeowners is correct….if you include provision for investors you are placing the floor under the market and encourage the lending…the deflation will occur because homeowners do not require a return…it is somewhere to live…whereas investors require the return to justify the investment.
Serviceability is the key
"I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers."
They can be next in line…but if the gov says sorry nothing for you then the deflation occurs….there is a disincentive for banks to provide finance.
"Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens. "
It is not a question of capacity…the Govs ability to finance is unlimited (if we ignore future impact) …it is what is the desired outcome…commercial property is also overvalued and over leveraged…..it cannot be subsidised as that creates disconnects and disconnects from the real economy are the problem.
"the current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is take"
Yes the social housing will take time and in one respect I think the gov foolish to build when they could buy cheaply existing properties (there was no shortage of houses, only a shortage of affordable housing) But there are positives to building social housing including training, employment and new technology (or systems)
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices.
Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them.
You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution.
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Well, aren't all landlords in it for the business of providing housing at a profit and not capital gains? (/sarc) In essence, their profits won't be adversely affected – their income would reduce, but so would their expenses. The return should be equitable with pre-Covid.
I'm advocating a bottom-up approach. What do the NZ people need. We need to be housed, fed and supported – then employed. The current social housing plan is not going to cut it, it was ineffective to address the real housing issues before, and it will not deliver now.
"Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices"
.Not sure your definition of social housing is the norm…social housing INCLUDES state housing, community and emergency housing.
"Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them"
Supporting them how?…..and tenants can remain in their current housing (if they so desire) if the landlord changes…the property remains.
"You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution."
You continue misunderstand what I am outlining….'the market will do what the market does , and currently it is in a deflationary environment….the state intervention (or not) is crucial to the desired outcome…as it always was, its just that in the recent past the intervention was considered undesired
"The World Bank also says this ratio is "possibly the most important summary measure of housing market performance, indicating not only the degree to which housing is affordable by the population, but also the presence of market distortions".
Based on this official work, it seems to have become accepted that a median multiple of 3.0 times or less is a very good marker for housing affordability. Much of the work in support of the 3x standard is based on US research on the US housing market"
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples
Is that a ratio you wish the government to "support"?…..for by requiring support for investors that's exactly what you will be doing.
I have little time for JLR but credit where it's due, this is a useful insight into how things are done inside the National caucus:
https://twitter.com/jamileeross/status/1263570896901386240
My link didn't work Observer?
Basically he says all MPs are liars and it's anyone's guess between "mr unlikable and mr unknowable". He's quite funny.
Thanks observer. A worthwhile read. Much more credible insight on the "Vote. Far more useful than some of the commentators! Thanks Jamie.
So much for the Swedish experiment:
Sweden currently ranks 8th on deaths per capita @384 per million….behind the likes of Spain, France , UK and Italy…San Marino is the highest @1209
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Ah…over the last week…lies, damn lies and statistics.
This was the source of the original article.
Also something in the Guardian about the lower than expected percentage of infected people with antibodies, the mathematicians are baffled (?????). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus
There's some kind of mental disconnect going on between an expected 25% antibody rate, or even a 7% antibody rate, and a reported population case rate of 0.3%.
Evidently they are putting a lot of hope into the asymptomatic infection and transmission rate being orders of magnitude higher than detected case rate. But that hope isn't supported by data from places where extensive testing of contacts is carried out (such as New Zealand), which shows that true asymptomatic cases are a small fraction of the number of symptomatic cases.
Given that most reports of antibody tests highlight the fact that most tests have a very high false positive rate, the likeliest explanation is that even the 7% at the end of April is a gross overestimate of how many have actually been exposed. Which in turn suggests that the voluntary physical distancing the Swedes have done has successfully flattened the curve, but they are just somewhere near the start of a very long broad peak of the curve.
That was my reading of it this morning as well. Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated, or it doesn’t cause the immune system to generate antibodies unless symptoms are severe or ….
But as was obvious from the start – this isn’t a standard disease
Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated
My sense is that infection spreading is mainly due to large groups getting close together and making loud noises at each other. Choir practice, bars, weddings, noisy restaurants etc. Those appear to have been the superspreading events. Then once those events stopped, and very basic precautions against spreading started, it took a lot of close personal contact for most new infections.
It kind of makes a mockery of the idea of an R0 number when most infection spread is due to a few discrete superspreading events, each resulting in a large but random number of transmissions. Rather than the picture implied by an R0 number, which suggests each infection likely passes it on to two or three other people .(or twenty in the case of measles in an unprotected population).
Ever been to a resthome lately, they're squished in like sardines, and of course NZs other outbreak was at a school.
I looked into typical infection models of the kind being used to discuss policy (the SIR form) and was astounded by how unrealistically simplistic they are. While its possible to understand they are modelling a process like viral spread its always going to be questionable if they are making a reasonable forecast, specifically as the outbreak occurs people will and have been naturally socially distance themselves from others (people automatically out less and take more precautions), but the assumption seems to be a static R0 throughout any forecast which doesn't respond to the outbreak.
Does anyone know of government reviews going on in response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
I vaguely recall talk about a review into the Covid 19 responses by DHBs after complaints about lack of surgical equipment and PPEs in some parts of the country. I can't remember the actual specifics.
That was annoying. Software security update reboot. It found a configuration issue from the operating system update earlier in the week. Set the IP incorrectly.
Rapid fix while I was in a zoom webinar.
Tyvm
The search button – is it not working?
One interesting aspect of the lockdown,and spending constraints is that NZ has reduced both its use of credit cards,and paid off over the last 2 months 1.5 billion of interest bearing credit card debt.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c12
It sucks to be visa . Wonder what the impact is on the balance of payments and how much less is going to overseas as profit and fees. I'm assuming the local banks provide the capital circulated but I don't really know how it works in the background.
Another random thought – so far banks and credit card companies seem to have made up the fraud losses. that happen but with the changing banking enviroment will security become a higher profile activity?
I see James' favourite politician, Jair Bolsonaro, is butchering Brazil's Covid 19 response.
1153 deaths today with 8000+ critical.
It makes me laugh how mush you mention me – whereas I never give you a second thought.
When asked (on 1 November 2018) who he thought the world's most charismatic leader is, James replied "At the moment .. Jair Bolsonaro".
https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-01-11-2018/#comment-1545374
How many times has James moved on since then? More recently (January 2020) our very own leader of the opposition Simon Bridges had reacquired James' favour.
A few days ago these ‘word clouds’ revealed that some NZers consider that another political leader close to home as ‘charismatic‘.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/national-mps-doing-the-numbers-on-simon-bridges-as-newshub-poll-shows-what-kiwis-think-of-him.html
But I suspect that’s not how James rolls. Perhaps Todd Muller's looking pretty charismatic to James "at the moment". Ah James, ever the fair-weather admirer.
look at you – searching back and spending time searching for old comments. Good on you.
In reply to the first item – who is the worlds most charismatic leader – I answered. why for the moment? simply because this is not an absolute. Ardern may be polling the highest "for the moment" dosnt mean she will for all eternity (despite the wishes of some on here).
And yep – I stopped donating, and then I started once I thought he was doing a better job. Still am – every month – wont stop with the new leader.
James, look at you – donating to the National party every month. Good on you.
You're quite right re the ephemeral nature of political popularity – for a recent local example we need look no further than the ‘leadership’ of the Honourable Simon Bridges (endorsed by Sir John Key, no less.) Were I a betting man, I'd put money on PM Ardern out-lasting at least two National party leaders.
One down…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/105838453/john-key-delivers-stark-warning-on-the-economy-endorses-simon-bridges-as-leader
"But first, the latest update records +2.4 mln more people claiming unemployment benefits in the US, taking the total since early March to more than 38 mln. We may be getting used to such large numbers and this latest week is lower than last week, but this still represents a building social disaster, the scale of which vastly exceeds the Great Depression. In 1932, twelve million Americans were unemployed and one out of every four families no longer had an income. In 2020 the social safety net is helping with the income stress in the short term, but the level of real jobless level is also now approaching 25%. US jobless benefits typically last only 26 weeks"
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/105146/more-huge-us-job-losses-economies-contracting-beijing-clamps-down-hong-kong-china
Over 38 million unemployed in worlds largest economy…and a virus uncontrolled…difficult to see any upside
I don't envy the state governors who seem to be the last stand of sensible politicians in many parts of the US. No money, no food and widespread gun ownership is a recipe for civil unrest. Those billionaire communities maybe don't look so secure anymore and the overseas boltholes are closed
https://twitter.com/nickofnz/status/1263600710299512833
Newshub Breaking News:
Todd's in, Simon's gone.
And hes making it pretty clear, his absolute priority is the economy, no matter how many lives it costs.
Hoots got the boot?
National's Chinese Communist Party funding must have been cut now that Simon's gone.
https://www.twitter.com/matthewhootonnz?lang=en
maybe he's got a new job that's incompatible with his twitter account.
Or he's arch trolling the left.
A wee twist…
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1259527119136272384
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1263665441437888512
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1263617360902131714
The Herald changing its tune? Pointing out New Zealand's shameful inequality of recent decades.
But then Granny reverts to form and tries to link 35 years of neoliberal crap to the current Labour led govt.
I feel like hell has frozen over. Firstly my dad has been saying nice things about Winston Peters… And I agree with them (my dad's a labour/alliance kinda guy)
Then all the older blokes I know who have benefited enormously from neoliberal policies and absolutely hated Labour and adored key and haven't voted Labour since Lange, many of them are praising the PM, talking about nationals lack of compassion and saying they may vote labour or NZ f.
Obviously not a poll or anything but … It's so weird to hear so many people who traditionally spit bike at me for being a lefty even entertain the idea of Labour. Perhaps covid 19 has changed how a lot of people value things. Time will tell.
I hope so Corey.
Kia Ora Newshub.
Paddy I see you won a award. Yes it great that the government took a strong stance against the virus.
Looks like the young ones are enjoying the night life.
That's cool A shortage of wool for because of a The people nitting.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
That's correct the health of the Kaumatua comes first our traditions can still be revived later on.
Festpack is postponed till 2024 it looks like a great Pacific people festival. of Arts
Ka kite Ano.
https://youtu.be/qQfetkoGrpU
Kia Ora Newshub
I think it's a great idea dropping council concent for sheds and sleepouts under 30 Square metres.
That's good $600 million being put into regional economy's.
Looks like Kiwis are enjoying the ski fields.
Conserving water is the best way to go so we stop putting huge pressure on our environment look around the world and learn from there mistakes.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Some people will be able to build sleepouts to house the whanau with the guidance of a qualified builder.
Tangata Whenua using the Internet to entertain and teach Te reo Ka pai.
To much the tangata living off the grid.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora The Am Show.
The government has done a great job in their first term.
Aotearoa is the place a lot of people want to flight to.
Fruit juice will be good for you with no sugar or coffee. Sounds like the new drink is great.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Newshub.
Great that Stuff is going to be owned by its staff.
The magnetic virus testing is great especially with the technology being open sourced and very cost effective open source is the way of the future.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
That's great church and tangi can have 100 tangata attending .
The Papatuanuku has changed a lot in the last 3 years.?????.
Mana Wahine.
Ka kite Ano.