The government had the opportunity to get rid of neoliberalism and return to its roots as a working class party. Labour 2022 is not socialist. It is simply a manager for the corporate establishment.
It chose the liberal middle class instead and consigned itself to the dustbin of history.
Can’t put it much clearer than that. And evidence is there via the neo liberal Parliamentary consensus–whereby the State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, monetarist transactional methods etc. roll over with each election. Labour has enacted a number of useful reforms that the Natzos would not have…but…when the pirate banks and supermarket duopoly laugh in their and citizens faces and keep raking it in, and a state house mega build remains wanting…
As for the current RB rate hike, unemployed are often viewed by tories as “dirty filthy bennies”, a sub class of despicable losers…yet the RB Governor now says we need to add to their ranks to fight inflation, what the…while at the same time employers say they are labour starved and want more migrant labour. Now sure, jobs and people cannot always be linked, but the employers position says little more than–“cheap labour now please”–just as a number of workers are rediscovering their fight and winning decent wage increases.
The faux separation of, and ‘independent’ status of the Reserve Bank, under the RB Act, is such a travesty and reveals like little else why the NZ neo liberal state has to be booted.
Descending into negative equity is going to be a humbling experience for some holders of thumping great mortgages, and guess what–voting for Baldrick is not going to make it better–the contrary in fact. Retired, middle class, working class and alienated need to find some points of unity and develop public action to combat the coming shit show.
I see that the National Party and Groundswell are crowing about the number of signatures included in their petition which Groundswell describes as a "farming tax" but Stuff.co.nz describes as a "food tax" (Interesting contrast!).
By my rough calculations the petition at just over 102,000 was signed by something like 3% of the electorate – not a particularly impressive result and does not confirm Groundwell's claims that the overwhelming majority of New Zealanders support them.
By the way Groundswell keep sending me unsolicited feeds on Facebook and then getting angry when I respond to them asking questions which they don't want to answer. The solution is simple – if they don't want any criticism then stop sending them to me. The very first question I asked is "why are you calling it a farming tax when it is not a farming tax per se – it is an agricultural carbon emissions tax – which is not the same thing as in if you farm without emitting then you don't pay. I then told them that they were really just a front for the National Party at which point I received some hysterical troll responses.
They get angry unless you tell them what they want to hear.
net zero carbon. You sequester more GHGs than you produce. This means transitioning to regenerative models that build soil, biodiversity and grow forests, as well as reducing the GHG emitting practices and stopping relying on pay to pollute carbon credit schemes.
This is physically possible. The main blocks are economic, political and philosophical. I favour subsidising farms to transition, but farmers have to be on board. We also can't do industrial farming at the scale we currently do, so we need to transition our economy at the same time.
I'm generally in agreement about the large scale dairy farms we have here in Canterbury. However I know many local farmers with small holdings who claim they will go out of business as a result of these new laws
that's tough, and again, I would support the government assisting family farms including small ones, to transition. Continuing to farm without taking climate and ecology into account is not a solution to their problem. Groundswell can't help them. I hope someone sorts that out though, because we don't need small family farms being bought up by corporations either.
I know a guy spent the last 30 years on the family farm on low wages, 10 years of it nursing the parents as well as running the farm , the siblings want their cut now , the farms not big enough to pay the mortgage on the 3 to 4 mill he'd have to borrow to pay them out.
Occasionally parents can structure it to hand it down , but it will usually involve getting bigger, and most likely at some point it will be to dare to hand down,
The family farm is terminal it just might be a long slow death for some.
the problem there is the decisions of the parents. Not being overly critical, lots of people are like this and don't sort this stuff out until it's too late. But there are other options to just selling up and splitting the money.
And if the parents want all the kids to have an equal share and thus are ok with the farm being sold, then they’re ok with it no longer being a family farm. That’s on them.
bearing in mind that my parents' generation were the ones where the farm got left to the oldest boy and the girls were supposed to marry farmers if they wanted a farming life.
I’ve also seen the farmers who inherited a farm but then when they want to retire they want bought out. So yeah, the land prices are a huge problem, but there are other factors here too.
I know a farming family who put the farm into a trust and now the kids and their mum run it and when she dies the kids will run and I guess their kids when they have them.
Not every human activity has or is for a profit motive. Profit per se is not the issue anyway, it is about businesses paying their fair share and including this into their business models.
The banks tell us we must stop buying silly smashed avocadoes – officially! They have come to save us all from inflation by taking every cent we have left. They have come to save us from leaky homes by fire-saling the houses. They have come to stop the silly notion of anyone but the chosen rich accumulating capital by taking it all back.
The RBNZ is also telling you to hold on to your job and enjoy your pay-rise while you can, because it is projecting unemployment starting to rise in 2023, which just so happens to be election year.
Yes, but to those of us who are not schooled in even basic economics such as I it is not clear what that really means. That article doesn’t mention the RBNZ projections of the unemployment rate over the next 3 years and they are dire. It does, however, mention recession three times! The Proletariat will shrink, the Precariat will grow and NACT + NZF will ride in as our economic saviours and apply the razor gangs to government spending, including social welfare. As they always do because they are a one-trick pony with the memory of a goldfish.
We interpret the term 'maximum sustainable employment' (MSE) or full employment to mean the level of employment at which the job market is tight, but not so tight that inflation is rising out of control.
More formally, we define MSE as the highest use of labour resources that can be sustained over time without creating a sustained acceleration in inflation.
What is interesting about the RBNZs position regarding MSE, is that we had increasing inflation before wage growth rates began rising. It's almost as if workers don't have anything to do with setting prices, the actual origin of inflation.
My limited understanding of it is that headline inflation was high to start with, because of Covid and other global issues, and this is starting to feed into core inflation such as the MSE and wage inflation. I guess our economy, like so many others, was and is not resilient enough to weather so many large shocks in rapid succession.
Whatever the source of inflation, it is those least responsible for rising prices who are already bearing the brunt of its effects. It's apparently unreasonable to expect lower margins of those businesses that have enjoyed rising profits despite COVID and other global issues.
It's apparently unreasonable to expect lower margins … [my italics]
What do you mean? How is this apparent [to you]? How do you envision RBNZ and/or Government to control or influence those margins?
Yes, of course, the people at the bottom always suffer most and will always suffer more when things get worse. Rightly or wrongly, this Government does acknowledge this with the CoL adjustment, for example. However, RBNZ sees it as a contributing factor to stubbornly high household spending:
Household spending has stayed elevated, despite high inflation, rising interest rates, falling house prices and uncertainty about the global outlook. Recent spending has been supported by high employment, increasing wages, cost of living payments, and savings built up by households during COVID-19 lockdowns. [my italics]
It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins. Monetary policy has significant lag and it is not always as effective as hoped.
Seeing that we must consume to live and that inflation in the cost of living (a ghoulish term when examined) has been rising faster than wages, a interventionist government could clamp down on these costs through price controls, rent controls, excess profit tax and other fiscal policies.
The Cost of Living Payment was unwise IMO and not directed properly. A reduction in tax liability for those at bottom would have been a much better move.
Petrol is still 25 cts. off per litre, PT fares are still discounted. The fuel discount also benefits the transporting industry, which unsurprisingly have asked for it to remain.
There are plenty more examples of how Government shoulders some of the burden of rising costs (inflation) for New Zealanders.
Any changes to the tax system can easily backfire and stoke the inflationary fire even further. This is the double-edged sword of given the people more money in the hand which they will spend rather than save and/or pay off debt. Consumer spending needs to come down, not go up.
At least that’s my limited understanding of the tricky situation we’re in.
It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins
Its called demand destruction,it removes profits by enforcing providers to reduce margins to retain sales.it works efficiently in highly informed markets such as the US,where the prices fall to meet demand.
The RBNZs tool kit is limited and their remit is also, I am not expecting them to achieve something that is not within their capabilities. Monetary policy such that it is.
The government, however, has a commanding parliamentary majority and control of fiscal policy; which can form much more directed and precise set of tools. While they have made plenty of prudent decisions I would also join those calling on the government for a reinstatement of the rent freeze. It seems to me as an abdication of sorts to the RBNZ; rather than institute the needed redistributive laws.
People are relying on the charity, such as food banks, for the bare necessities of life in increasing numbers, but they must some how spend less? If those on the lowest incomes had more spending power they may be able to improve their living conditions, for example, no longer skipping meals, or moving out of the unhealthy rental into something better for them. Targeted tax policy could ensure that, RBNZ policies cannot. Some demand is simply unavoidable. There is also plenty of spending being done by those who do not require philanthropy, more often doling it out. It is the governments role to attempt to solve these inequities, not the RBNZ.
The only one I have seen doing anything like this is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is an arm of Government and certainly isn't involved in lending you money to buy your home. There is only one RBNZ so you shouldn't be using a plural like "they".
I can only answer some. That may lose rentals – yes! That may lose homes – yes! I base my answers on historical precedent. This is a modern day land grab, as predicted, so blatantly obviously the same old same old.
Measures to counter this would have been to stop corporates jacking the price of everything and RBNZ not leading the charge to fuck all the little guys.
"Measures to counter this would have been to stop corporates jacking the price of everything and RBNZ not leading the charge to fuck all the little guys."
Yes. Making the impacts on little guys a political priority would be a start.
First home owners, not speculators, whose house should not be some widget in the enormous games of finance these fools play. I'm pissed off. Why were they (Government, RBNZ) all allowing so much practically free money to be lent out. And everyone BUY BUY BUY! We saw it coming, if we were meant to be paying attention and didn't… we were asleep. Everyone gets overextended and… hey presto, interest goes up, land grab.
They had the gall to tell us on the news last night those with savings are better off. Like it all balances out, this periodic stealing of people's life savings, via draining them trying to pay interest, then mortgagee sales, to further the rich.
I have an arrangement with my Bank that I pay the minimum fortnightly payment. That has not changed in the 4 years I have had the current mortgage. When interests rates were very low during Covid I was paying more principal and less interest. Now that rates are going up, I pay less principal and more interest. My fortnightly payment does not change.
The only thing that changes is the term of the loan. The date of final payment stretches out further and further. This does not bother me in the slightest – I will be long dead by then and the loan will be paid when either I, or my estate sells the property.
I bought my house over 40 years ago. I was paying 6% on the first mortgage and 9% on the second mortgage. I was single then (in the eyes of the State anyway) so I got flatmates in to help with the outgoings. In the bad days of the mid 1980's I had paid off the second mortgage, but was paying something like 17% on the first mortgage. I was lucky because my first mortgage was with Housing NZ because I bought in an area where the Government of the time was attempting to encourage home ownership. Other people were paying over 20% interest.
You do not sound that 'lucky' to me. You bought the property over 40 years ago and still have a mortgage on it? Sounds to me like your bank has done you no favours and has made a lot of money at your expense. You should probably get a good mortgage broker and some sound financial advice.
I have this mortgage now because when I paid off the original amount in 1992, I did not actually discharge the mortgage – just left it sitting there for nearly 3 decades. I borrowed against it again 4 years ago when I retired in order to fund an extensive upgrade of part of the dwelling (which at 90 odd years old was badly needed) and I rent out that part while living in the other part myself.
That sounds very smart but offset mortgages are at floating interest rate or higher and your comment makes no sense; your interest payments will go up too.
Only on the portion not offset – if it's fully offset (which is how I read the comment), no interest is charged. On the other hand, it's not much of a mortgage if it is fully offset – a mortgage in name only perhaps?
Loving the irony of Black Friday sale ads merrily sprinkled between the RBNZ pleading for people not to spend. This is the problem with capitalism, everyone constantly rowing against each other, sending out competing messages.
RBNZ says don't spend but every industry, everywhere, especially retail banking, says umm, no.
Covid relief was supposed to be security in uncertain times. What did middle New Zealand do? Went out and bought investment properties, fucking muppets.
Yes indeed, and various jackals are now gleefully buying property at lower prices. We sold six months back to move, in no rush, and the agent was really offended we held out for a less speculative buyer.
Unemployment will save us says the RB–yet–employers demand urgent imports of migrant labour. Which is really a call for low wages.
It's sad to see crime appearing to be on the increase – violent crime especially.
I did a training session at work recently about safety awareness. One of the questions the speaker asked was would you feel safer working in a bank or a dairy (in relation to the threat of robbery and/or the potential for violence)?
That is because there has been a lot of target hardening in other places. Service stations used to be easy targets, – not any more. Dairies – with their windows covered in advertising and run by family members, are the softest target around at the moment.
I have noticed some diaries starting to increase their security but I think there needs to be some consistency. I can't remember which of the big players owns 4 Square but they should be rolling out something to all their stores (though from what I know they are franchises)
They are part of the Foodstuffs Cooperative along with Pak 'n' Save and New World – technically not a franchise, but certainly looks and acts like one most of the time.
I have no idea what you are doing, but if it's a moderation issue, then moderate. If it's not, then hassling someone new like this is both rude and not great for the site. It also reflects badly on moderation.
No no, Incognito has obviously looked at my email address, matched with a previous account then is using it to needle me. I had no intention of trolling or the like – just wanted to get into some conversation again but, well, I think s/he has made themselves clear.
if it’s a moderation issue, then it needs to be dealt with as moderation not trolling someone.
I’ve had a look at your email and IP address. Email address is fine. IP address is shared with someone else who is currently active on TS. If that’s you using two names, then you cannot do that. Some mods will allow a name change for a good reason, others taking a harder line, but either way you cannot run two names here at the same time.
If there is a different explanation for the same IP address, then please explain. Otherwise, please drop pick one name and stick to it.
The IP address matches someone else's? That's weird.
Without betraying confidence/someone elses details is the person I share an email address with a long time user here? Because it isn't me – I only have one account but am on a large network.
Unfortunately for you, I’ve now looked more closely at the email address and see it’s similar to someone who’s on a permanent ban because of a long history of trolling and causing problems for moderators by trying to skirt bans. I’m putting you on the ban list again. If you think this is a mistake, then reply and your comment will end up in the back end where I will see it.
At some point lprent will do an amnesty on the permanent bans. At which point I suggest that if you want to comment here you pick one name, stick to it, and keep your head down.
I am not sure what sort of training such businesses offer.
they are usually family run and they work 24/7. My family owned such a business when I was growing up. The work is endless.
your comment does hint at a blame the victim approach. Was that what you were meaning or have I misinterpreted you? My apologies if I have. The blame lies with the a…hole who stabbed the worker to death.
Right, and who do you think should provide the training to the bosses? The police? The military?
Who do you think is equipped in NZ currently to ward off some shitheel with a knife? Would you be trained enough?
The last knife attacker is now in a female prison for attacking three people, inclusive his/their ex girlfriend who will have lasting scars in her face. And these victims simply had the audacity to go to a restaurant for a dinner and thought that was safe in NZ.
If you think dudes/ettes outside are shifty, close the door – which we do a lot now a days.
They will have to break the door, and by that time she should be able to get out the back door.
No heroics, no nothing. Just try to get out and not worry about a single thing or a single cent. Money is replacable, a cut up face is for live. IF you can't get away, give them the contents of the till, if they want a coffee to go with that , make that coffee, pack the box of chocolates and wish them a good day. Anything to stay unharmed and alive.
But in fact there is no training that can help you to get a way from someone who just simply has no respect for others, for society or their communities.
What will happen now is that Dairys will arm themselves, will hopefully always have a two people policies – if they don't have for the most part even more CCTV that they already have and if all falters, just shut. Because clearly it onus is on us to keep us alive, the police will come to mop up what is left over if the robbery/raid goes wrong, and of course lay a charge for murder or assault.
If the government is serious about winning the next election, and helping those at risk of being impacted by rising mortgage rates, then the government should change the target inflation range temporarilly to reflect the reality of the economic situation.
Those at risk don't only include mortgage holders. But also likely tenants who may face rent increases to cover increasing mortgage costs incurred by landlords.
If a lot of the inflation is imported, then, that component of inflation will not be affected. So, the only way to bring inflation back within the target band is to basically force NZ into a full-blown recession.
I think the target rate for the next three years should be say 3-5%, which would be much more achievable with a lot less pain.
I was trying to find some data to refute your claim,
But also likely tenants who may face rent increases to cover increasing mortgage costs incurred by landlords.
which I just don't think is true, at least not to the same scale of increase or remotely close to it. I do note you have couched your claim using the words, "likely", and "may".
There's this GA article from 2014. Best line is first in the comments section,
I read a lot about this also on interest, but the most obvious thing is that rents are paid from real money, out of real people income, sweat, work and productivity, that is finite. Houses are paid with fake bank money that don’t exist, so they can be as expensive as many zero you can put on a computer screen. Banks want houses to be more expensive, so they give you more fake money and so on, while we all get poorer. If we started listening a bit less to the Economists (with capital E) and a bit more on our brain cells, we would all be better off.
It is true to the extent that landlords will try to pass on their costs to tenants if they are able to. Of course, market conditions may not allow that. For instance, if there is a glut of houses on the market. So, it isn't given.
Firstly, within a historical context, the inflation rate has been much higher in the past reaching an eye-watering 17% in 1987. So, I am not sure that 3-5% inflation is intolerable for several years, given the extra-ordinary times we have been through, and that the RB did cock things up a bit.
Secondly, adjusting the inflation target range is not without historical precedent. For instance, in 1996 the target range moved from 0-2% to 0-3%.
If we do have a recession, there is no guarantee it will be shallow, and it may cost a lot of jobs. But applying the handbrake a bit slower may allow a lot of jobs to be saved.
Even if the RB crashes the economy, there still won't be price stability. For instance, we import a lot of stuff as part of my company. Prices have gone up at least 30% from most suppliers over the last several years. There is no sign that imported inflation is going to end any time soon.
What will happen though, in a recession, is a lot of people will lose their jobs, and there will be a lot of hardship that could be avoided by taking a more measured approach to bringing down inflation. It is not the fault of voters that the RB way over-stimulated the economy. Yet they are being expected to take the medicine to fix it.
Someone pays one way or another whether target inflation range stays the same or is increased temporarilly to a more realistic level. That is through either slightly higher prices, but lower interest rates. Or higher interest rates, and slightly lower prices.
One of the understood effects of the OCR tightening is the currency appreciation.There are 2 parts here the appreciation of the US$ as a reserve currency with large reservoirs for liquid assets such as cash,and the differential in the interest rates (with forex risk)
Here with the OCR being largely forecast there has been an appreciation of 10% since the start of oct,against the US$.This in turn reduces the cost of imports along with reducing the freight and insurance component ( freight rates now back to around pre covid)
The question you need to ask your supplier is why the price has not adjusted.
"Increasingly National’s election pitch is simply that they are “not Labour”. But is that really enough during an economic recession? Does National have any policies of substance that might help navigate the current economic crisis? Even if voters punish Labour for mismanaging the economy, there are no signs that they should have confidence that National would do any better."
When a Government takes from more people than it gives too or does not give enough to those who believe they deserve more then a majority is formed for its demise. The major problem is inflation which takes from many and gives to few – so once the incumbent Government is blamed for "letting inflation get out of control" it is on the way to being toast.
The current Gov may have a lot to answer for but in reality the current economic situation has been little influenced by them, this situation has been building since 2008 , and as is noted in the linked piece that will butter no parsnips for the electorate come next year.
Question: Why the first house price spike 2002-2008?
While looking for something else I saw again the there has been constant and severe house price inflation in NZ for 20 years now, briefly interrupted by the GFC. We know about 2010-2018 (Jong Khee), and 2020-2021 (Covid relief).
Why did the 2002-2008 spike occur? Accelerated immigration? Free trade deal with China? Is it just the cost of open tap neoliberal economics?
I suspect it is, which is why I applaud this government's commitment to managing immigration and foreign capital interference in the residential housing market.
it's also because the Retirement Commissioner spent years telling NZ to invest in property. That alongside the narrative that we couldn't afford superannuation any more and people needed to save for their own retirement. It was very anti-socialist/pro neolib.
Yes, i remember that. And the re-zoning of residential properties/zones to mixed which resulted in many nice villas being turned into offices, dental clinics and the likes. These lost residential houses were never replaced.
There was also the share market collapse in 1987 causing the losses of retirement savings of many, so for some, property probably would at least be worth something, unlike shares which can theoretically become worthless.
I also wonder how much impact Rich Dad, Poor Dad had – the book had more to it than "buy underpriced real estate using leverage", but that was probably the main message people took from it. It was published in 1997 and was a big seller, and I could see that message slowly percolating through to NZ after the 1997 Asian financial crisis as the economy first recovered in 1998-9 and then picked up steam under Labour.
I remember a real slump in house prices in 1991. I was overseas for most of 1990 and I remember when I came back giving some serious thought to buying an investment property in early 1991 as there was quite a glut on the market. I did decide not to – which was probably wise.
Those that have shall be given more, and they will have an abundance. But those that do not have, even what they have, will be taken away from them.
Matthew 25:29
The OCR: What you need to know
RNZ Business
12:46 pm on 23 November 2022
…… increasing the OCR, the cost to consumers of borrowing money from their banks also increases, and as consumers find themselves spending more of their take-home pay on servicing their debts, they have less money to spend on other things.
Banks made record profits, there was no pandemic for them. Rents, mortgages still had to be paid even under lock down.
To keep up with paying higher interest rates demanded by the banksters. Adrian Orr says the public will have to cut their spending,
Adrian Orr has also linked higher unemployment to job competition as the answer to 'wage inflation'.
Adrian Orr says unemployment must rise, before inflation, (particularly wage inflation) will be brought under control.
Bigger mortgage payments, less wages, more unemployment, more job competition, this is all sweet music to the banksters and bosses.
Listening to the car radio. Newstalk ZB, a representative of the banking community said; Can't meet your new mortgage interest rate. Talk to us. 'We can help. 'We don't want to see you out of your home.' 'We are here for the long haul'. (And so are you).
Bought at the high end of the housing market?
Feeling squeezed between inadequate wage increases and high interest rates?
Go to your local bank manager and beg for mercy like the desperate wretch you are, He will see what he can do for you. Agree to a mortgage holiday, or longer period of payment, he will let you stay in your home to work longer to pay off your mortgage.
The March of the Greedies;
Adrian Orr admits Reserve Bank is 'deliberately engineering recession'
Tom Pullar-Strecker 10:02, Nov 24 2022
Orr told Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure select committee it was correct that the Reserve Bank was engineering a recession, saying it was deliberately trying to slow spending in the economy.
"….You know, if you just start behaving, ‘1% different’ around inflation expectations and wage growth that makes our job easier."
Reserve Bank manager, Adrian Orr. also says government spending must be cut.
(Y'know, health care, education, welfare all that unnecessary stuff that gets in the way of maximising bankster profits).
…..Adrian Orr's message to think harder about spending – or "cool the jets" – isn't just for the public. He has told the Government to spend sensibly or risk even higher inflation.
No one should expect their investment to be underwritten by taxpayers. You are responsible for your own risk more than banks are.
Hindsight won't be kind to this government wasting billions on non-delivered services. Robertson may think the RB is overreacting, but honestly so did Robertson.
The fed minutes last night said they showed a greater then even chance (likely) of recession,.The IIF models forecast recession,so it is an expected outcome from high inflation and the necessary mechanism to curb animal spirits,through the forced extinction of Zombie companies,that take easy capital and transform it into empty pixels such as the removal in value of 2.2 trillion $ in crypto,or the deleveraging of property values.
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Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: TVNZ says it is dealing with about 50 formal complaints over its coverage of the latest 1News-Verian political poll, with some viewers – as well as the Prime Minister and a former senior Labour MP – critical of the tone of the 6pm report. ...
Muriel Newman writes – When Meridian Energy was seeking resource consents for a West Coast hydro dam proposal in 2010, local Maori “strenuously” objected, claiming their mana was inextricably linked to ‘their’ river and could be damaged. After receiving a financial payment from the company, however, the Ngai Tahu ...
Alwyn Poole writes – “An SEP,’ he said, ‘is something that we can’t see, or don’t see, or our brain doesn’t let us see, because we think that it’s somebody else’s problem. That’s what SEP means. Somebody Else’s Problem. The brain just edits it out, it’s like a ...
Our trust in our political institutions is fast eroding, according to a Maxim Institute discussion paper, Shaky Foundations: Why our democracy needs trust. The paper – released today – raises concerns about declining trust in New Zealand’s political institutions and democratic processes, and the role that the overuse of Parliamentary urgency ...
This article was prepared for publication yesterday. More ministerial announcements have been posted on the government’s official website since it was written. We will report on these later today …. Buzz from the BeehiveThere we were, thinking the environment is in trouble, when along came Jones. Shane Jones. ...
New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is ...
Luxon will no doubt put a brave face on it, but there is no escaping the pressure this latest poll will put on him and the government. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political ...
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or ...
Something odd happened yesterday, and I’d love to know if there’s more to it. If there was something which preempted what happened, or if it was simply a throwaway line in response to a journalist.Yesterday David Seymour was asked at a press conference what the process would be if the ...
Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy.Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Genterwocky After a hard days marching, Sir Doocey calls in at the Village Tavern For a pint of ale and a pork pie. The grim villagers stare at him. “Do not be travelling on the forest road,” warns a crusty old beak. “And why is that, antique peasant?” Grins Sir ...
Political conferences after a party returns to power are usually a chance for some healthy, even unhealthy backslapping. Yet National Party president Sylvia Wood’s address to its mainland representatives on Saturday hardly contained the unalloyed delight that one might have expected following National’s escape from the wilderness of opposition. Yes, ...
Comment: Almost half the world is voting in national elections this year and artificial intelligence is the elephant in the room. There are genuine fears AI-generated or AI-edited deepfakes will potentially manipulate election outcomes not just in the US and UK, but critically in countries such as India. For that ...
Ahead of the reality franchise’s return to New Zealand, allow us to introduce the eight brides and grooms. Chuck on a veil and tie back your man bun, because it’s time to say “I do” to a new season of Married at First Sight NZ. The reality TV “social experiment” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University Every year on June 1, student debt in Australia is indexed to inflation. In 2023, high inflation pushed the indexation rate to 7.1%, the highest since 1990. This ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Changes in the May 14 budget will cut the student debt of more than three million people, wiping more than $3 billion from what people owe. The government will cap the HELP indexation rate ...
Asia Pacific Report The prosecutor’s office at the International Criminal Court (ICC) has appealed for an end to what it calls intimidation of its staff, saying such threats could constitute an offence against the “administration of justice” by the world’s permanent war crimes court. The Hague-based office of ICC Prosecutor ...
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You can only do one rent rise a year but the Reserve Bank has ensured it will be very big.
This government has had multiple chances to force greater price competition, but now the the RBNZ has just told Labour: "Too late!".
someone with a lot of money is going to have lots of fun buying up houses penny to the dollar. I wonder if we are going to see investors/hedgefunds/pension funds etc buying up large as they did/do in the US.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/housing-market-investors/
Yes next year there could well be some real property bargains to be had for those lucky enough to be cashed up
The government had the opportunity to get rid of neoliberalism and return to its roots as a working class party. Labour 2022 is not socialist. It is simply a manager for the corporate establishment.
It chose the liberal middle class instead and consigned itself to the dustbin of history.
Can’t put it much clearer than that. And evidence is there via the neo liberal Parliamentary consensus–whereby the State Sector Act, Reserve Bank Act, monetarist transactional methods etc. roll over with each election. Labour has enacted a number of useful reforms that the Natzos would not have…but…when the pirate banks and supermarket duopoly laugh in their and citizens faces and keep raking it in, and a state house mega build remains wanting…
As for the current RB rate hike, unemployed are often viewed by tories as “dirty filthy bennies”, a sub class of despicable losers…yet the RB Governor now says we need to add to their ranks to fight inflation, what the…while at the same time employers say they are labour starved and want more migrant labour. Now sure, jobs and people cannot always be linked, but the employers position says little more than–“cheap labour now please”–just as a number of workers are rediscovering their fight and winning decent wage increases.
The faux separation of, and ‘independent’ status of the Reserve Bank, under the RB Act, is such a travesty and reveals like little else why the NZ neo liberal state has to be booted.
Descending into negative equity is going to be a humbling experience for some holders of thumping great mortgages, and guess what–voting for Baldrick is not going to make it better–the contrary in fact. Retired, middle class, working class and alienated need to find some points of unity and develop public action to combat the coming shit show.
[corrected typo in user name – Incognito]
Mod note
Thank you.
I see that the National Party and Groundswell are crowing about the number of signatures included in their petition which Groundswell describes as a "farming tax" but Stuff.co.nz describes as a "food tax" (Interesting contrast!).
By my rough calculations the petition at just over 102,000 was signed by something like 3% of the electorate – not a particularly impressive result and does not confirm Groundwell's claims that the overwhelming majority of New Zealanders support them.
By the way Groundswell keep sending me unsolicited feeds on Facebook and then getting angry when I respond to them asking questions which they don't want to answer. The solution is simple – if they don't want any criticism then stop sending them to me. The very first question I asked is "why are you calling it a farming tax when it is not a farming tax per se – it is an agricultural carbon emissions tax – which is not the same thing as in if you farm without emitting then you don't pay. I then told them that they were really just a front for the National Party at which point I received some hysterical troll responses.
They get angry unless you tell them what they want to hear.
I see nothing because you haven’t provided a single link besides a vague reference to Stuff.
stuff.co.nz/national/130485650/groundswell-nz-presents-its-food-tax-petition-at-parliament
Had to be typed out by hand because of my stupid IMAC that refuses to let me copy and paste links on this site, regardless of which browser I use.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/130485650/groundswell-nz-presents-its-food-tax-petition-at-parliament
try copying and pasting into another app first. Text Edit if you have it, then select plain text, then copy and paste to TS.
If that doesn't work, please let us know because it shouldn't be doing that (the TS edit box). Details of what happens would help.
Thanks Mike.
How do you farm without emitting? This seems like an impossibility to me.
Every human activity has some emissions attached to them
net zero carbon. You sequester more GHGs than you produce. This means transitioning to regenerative models that build soil, biodiversity and grow forests, as well as reducing the GHG emitting practices and stopping relying on pay to pollute carbon credit schemes.
This is physically possible. The main blocks are economic, political and philosophical. I favour subsidising farms to transition, but farmers have to be on board. We also can't do industrial farming at the scale we currently do, so we need to transition our economy at the same time.
I'm generally in agreement about the large scale dairy farms we have here in Canterbury. However I know many local farmers with small holdings who claim they will go out of business as a result of these new laws
that's tough, and again, I would support the government assisting family farms including small ones, to transition. Continuing to farm without taking climate and ecology into account is not a solution to their problem. Groundswell can't help them. I hope someone sorts that out though, because we don't need small family farms being bought up by corporations either.
The small family farm is terminal, land prices mean that it's only a matter of time before they are all gone,
can't see how that follows, unless farmers sell their family land on the open market.
I know a guy spent the last 30 years on the family farm on low wages, 10 years of it nursing the parents as well as running the farm , the siblings want their cut now , the farms not big enough to pay the mortgage on the 3 to 4 mill he'd have to borrow to pay them out.
Occasionally parents can structure it to hand it down , but it will usually involve getting bigger, and most likely at some point it will be to dare to hand down,
The family farm is terminal it just might be a long slow death for some.
the problem there is the decisions of the parents. Not being overly critical, lots of people are like this and don't sort this stuff out until it's too late. But there are other options to just selling up and splitting the money.
And if the parents want all the kids to have an equal share and thus are ok with the farm being sold, then they’re ok with it no longer being a family farm. That’s on them.
bearing in mind that my parents' generation were the ones where the farm got left to the oldest boy and the girls were supposed to marry farmers if they wanted a farming life.
I’ve also seen the farmers who inherited a farm but then when they want to retire they want bought out. So yeah, the land prices are a huge problem, but there are other factors here too.
I know a farming family who put the farm into a trust and now the kids and their mum run it and when she dies the kids will run and I guess their kids when they have them.
I just think that people who think money is more important than land are insane, but that does describe most of society 🤷♀️
Not every human activity has or is for a profit motive. Profit per se is not the issue anyway, it is about businesses paying their fair share and including this into their business models.
The banks tell us we must stop buying silly smashed avocadoes – officially! They have come to save us all from inflation by taking every cent we have left. They have come to save us from leaky homes by fire-saling the houses. They have come to stop the silly notion of anyone but the chosen rich accumulating capital by taking it all back.
Questions?
Which “banks” or do you mean the RBNZ?
The RBNZ is also telling you to hold on to your job and enjoy your pay-rise while you can, because it is projecting unemployment starting to rise in 2023, which just so happens to be election year.
so to add to DB's list, "the banks" are also saying, sorry beneficiaries, better luck next time.
The official statement being:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/479336/official-cash-rate-raised-by-75-basis-points-to-4-point-25-percent
Gotta maintain precariousness for workers. How else can we ‘encourage’ them to accept insufficient wage increases and unimproved working conditions.
Yes, but to those of us who are not schooled in even basic economics such as I it is not clear what that really means. That article doesn’t mention the RBNZ projections of the unemployment rate over the next 3 years and they are dire. It does, however, mention recession three times! The Proletariat will shrink, the Precariat will grow and NACT + NZF will ride in as our economic saviours and apply the razor gangs to government spending, including social welfare. As they always do because they are a one-trick pony with the memory of a goldfish.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/inflation-and-maximum-sustainable-employment
What is interesting about the RBNZs position regarding MSE, is that we had increasing inflation before wage growth rates began rising. It's almost as if workers don't have anything to do with setting prices, the actual origin of inflation.
My limited understanding of it is that headline inflation was high to start with, because of Covid and other global issues, and this is starting to feed into core inflation such as the MSE and wage inflation. I guess our economy, like so many others, was and is not resilient enough to weather so many large shocks in rapid succession.
Whatever the source of inflation, it is those least responsible for rising prices who are already bearing the brunt of its effects. It's apparently unreasonable to expect lower margins of those businesses that have enjoyed rising profits despite COVID and other global issues.
What do you mean? How is this apparent [to you]? How do you envision RBNZ and/or Government to control or influence those margins?
Yes, of course, the people at the bottom always suffer most and will always suffer more when things get worse. Rightly or wrongly, this Government does acknowledge this with the CoL adjustment, for example. However, RBNZ sees it as a contributing factor to stubbornly high household spending:
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/884276dd2ebb4962b325130eef7ae725.ashx
It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins. Monetary policy has significant lag and it is not always as effective as hoped.
Seeing that we must consume to live and that inflation in the cost of living (a ghoulish term when examined) has been rising faster than wages, a interventionist government could clamp down on these costs through price controls, rent controls, excess profit tax and other fiscal policies.
The Cost of Living Payment was unwise IMO and not directed properly. A reduction in tax liability for those at bottom would have been a much better move.
"It is apparent because the call from the RBNZ is for reduced consumer spending, not restricted profit margins. "
That is a distinction that should be acknowledged.
I’m not aware of RBNZ having anything in their tool kit to adjust or influence profit margins in the private sector.
Yes, price controls are an option and Government is making moves on those. Of course, the rent freeze has ended but the HRC has called for a return.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/472987/human-rights-commission-says-freeze-on-rent-increases-should-return
Petrol is still 25 cts. off per litre, PT fares are still discounted. The fuel discount also benefits the transporting industry, which unsurprisingly have asked for it to remain.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/11/cost-of-living-transporting-nz-calling-for-fuel-tax-cut-to-remain-so-kiwis-can-have-certainty.html
There are plenty more examples of how Government shoulders some of the burden of rising costs (inflation) for New Zealanders.
Any changes to the tax system can easily backfire and stoke the inflationary fire even further. This is the double-edged sword of given the people more money in the hand which they will spend rather than save and/or pay off debt. Consumer spending needs to come down, not go up.
At least that’s my limited understanding of the tricky situation we’re in.
Its called demand destruction,it removes profits by enforcing providers to reduce margins to retain sales.it works efficiently in highly informed markets such as the US,where the prices fall to meet demand.
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs
The RBNZs tool kit is limited and their remit is also, I am not expecting them to achieve something that is not within their capabilities. Monetary policy such that it is.
The government, however, has a commanding parliamentary majority and control of fiscal policy; which can form much more directed and precise set of tools. While they have made plenty of prudent decisions I would also join those calling on the government for a reinstatement of the rent freeze. It seems to me as an abdication of sorts to the RBNZ; rather than institute the needed redistributive laws.
People are relying on the charity, such as food banks, for the bare necessities of life in increasing numbers, but they must some how spend less? If those on the lowest incomes had more spending power they may be able to improve their living conditions, for example, no longer skipping meals, or moving out of the unhealthy rental into something better for them. Targeted tax policy could ensure that, RBNZ policies cannot. Some demand is simply unavoidable. There is also plenty of spending being done by those who do not require philanthropy, more often doling it out. It is the governments role to attempt to solve these inequities, not the RBNZ.
Which "Banks" (plural) are these?
The only one I have seen doing anything like this is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is an arm of Government and certainly isn't involved in lending you money to buy your home. There is only one RBNZ so you shouldn't be using a plural like "they".
We all know the 'official' banks follow the lead of RBNZ. It's dishonest to pretend otherwise.
Those are commercial banks and have completely different ‘mandates’ and accountability compared to RBNZ.
Kiwibank is owned by us. Do you think they blindly follow that lead as well?
If they do then Grant has to reprogramme their reason for being.
What is the plan for those currently struggling financially who face rising cost of lving increases?
For those that may lose their rentals?
For those that may lose their homes?
Any chance of measures to counter this stress and disruption?
Is that enough questions, for now?
I can only answer some. That may lose rentals – yes! That may lose homes – yes! I base my answers on historical precedent. This is a modern day land grab, as predicted, so blatantly obviously the same old same old.
Measures to counter this would have been to stop corporates jacking the price of everything and RBNZ not leading the charge to fuck all the little guys.
"Measures to counter this would have been to stop corporates jacking the price of everything and RBNZ not leading the charge to fuck all the little guys."
Yes. Making the impacts on little guys a political priority would be a start.
Little guys, and maybe I meant middle guys.
First home owners, not speculators, whose house should not be some widget in the enormous games of finance these fools play. I'm pissed off. Why were they (Government, RBNZ) all allowing so much practically free money to be lent out. And everyone BUY BUY BUY! We saw it coming, if we were meant to be paying attention and didn't… we were asleep. Everyone gets overextended and… hey presto, interest goes up, land grab.
They had the gall to tell us on the news last night those with savings are better off. Like it all balances out, this periodic stealing of people's life savings, via draining them trying to pay interest, then mortgagee sales, to further the rich.
I have an arrangement with my Bank that I pay the minimum fortnightly payment. That has not changed in the 4 years I have had the current mortgage. When interests rates were very low during Covid I was paying more principal and less interest. Now that rates are going up, I pay less principal and more interest. My fortnightly payment does not change.
The only thing that changes is the term of the loan. The date of final payment stretches out further and further. This does not bother me in the slightest – I will be long dead by then and the loan will be paid when either I, or my estate sells the property.
I bought my house over 40 years ago. I was paying 6% on the first mortgage and 9% on the second mortgage. I was single then (in the eyes of the State anyway) so I got flatmates in to help with the outgoings. In the bad days of the mid 1980's I had paid off the second mortgage, but was paying something like 17% on the first mortgage. I was lucky because my first mortgage was with Housing NZ because I bought in an area where the Government of the time was attempting to encourage home ownership. Other people were paying over 20% interest.
I was also lucky because I always had work.
You do not sound that 'lucky' to me. You bought the property over 40 years ago and still have a mortgage on it? Sounds to me like your bank has done you no favours and has made a lot of money at your expense. You should probably get a good mortgage broker and some sound financial advice.
I have this mortgage now because when I paid off the original amount in 1992, I did not actually discharge the mortgage – just left it sitting there for nearly 3 decades. I borrowed against it again 4 years ago when I retired in order to fund an extensive upgrade of part of the dwelling (which at 90 odd years old was badly needed) and I rent out that part while living in the other part myself.
That makes more sense. So was re-paid back in 1992. This is a new mortgage / draw down.
Listen to yourself and take you own advice: https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-05-10-2022/#comment-1913857.
Yes I will speak to myself. As its an offset mortgage and is completely offset the rate increasing wont affect me.
That sounds very smart but offset mortgages are at floating interest rate or higher and your comment makes no sense; your interest payments will go up too.
Only on the portion not offset – if it's fully offset (which is how I read the comment), no interest is charged. On the other hand, it's not much of a mortgage if it is fully offset – a mortgage in name only perhaps?
Loving the irony of Black Friday sale ads merrily sprinkled between the RBNZ pleading for people not to spend. This is the problem with capitalism, everyone constantly rowing against each other, sending out competing messages.
RBNZ says don't spend but every industry, everywhere, especially retail banking, says umm, no.
Covid relief was supposed to be security in uncertain times. What did middle New Zealand do? Went out and bought investment properties, fucking muppets.
Yes indeed, and various jackals are now gleefully buying property at lower prices. We sold six months back to move, in no rush, and the agent was really offended we held out for a less speculative buyer.
Unemployment will save us says the RB–yet–employers demand urgent imports of migrant labour. Which is really a call for low wages.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sandringham-homicide-the-worst-has-happened-manhunt-under-way-as-community-left-shocked/DMOJJJWROZA3PA7RTK4SLNVHXU/
heartbreaking. Young guy in his 20s – 30s recently married. Stabbed while at work.
An absolute tragedy. My condolences to friends and family in this community, including the owners who were away on holiday.
It's sad to see crime appearing to be on the increase – violent crime especially.
I did a training session at work recently about safety awareness. One of the questions the speaker asked was would you feel safer working in a bank or a dairy (in relation to the threat of robbery and/or the potential for violence)?
Everyone said dairy
They said safer in a dairy?
Don't they read the new? Did the session allow for determining why they felt that way?
Sorry – meant that they felt less safe in the dairy. My typing error
A sad state of affairs. Being a dairy owner is a dangerous profession these days
All good.
That makes more sense.
That is because there has been a lot of target hardening in other places. Service stations used to be easy targets, – not any more. Dairies – with their windows covered in advertising and run by family members, are the softest target around at the moment.
This is a good point. As other retail businesses improve their security and minimise risk, criminals will look for easier targets.
When you get burgled the police come around and talk about steps you can take to make your house/car a less attractive target.
I have noticed some diaries starting to increase their security but I think there needs to be some consistency. I can't remember which of the big players owns 4 Square but they should be rolling out something to all their stores (though from what I know they are franchises)
They are part of the Foodstuffs Cooperative along with Pak 'n' Save and New World – technically not a franchise, but certainly looks and acts like one most of the time.
I think you meant occupation.
Well, whatever – you know what I meant
Yeah, you mean you are sloppy with words & meanings.
No – I just wasn't really thinking about it too deeply
Yes, that was obvious, as was your annoying typo earlier on 🙁
I'm sorry – is there some kind of problem?
Yes, there is, a major one in fact.
I’m more than happy to share it with you. Don’t you want to hear it? Don’t be shy, you normally aren’t, just say the word 😉
Oh right I get it.
Ban me then if its a problem for you.
no, there is no problem. My suggestion is walk away from this convo and just focus on other ones that appeal 👍
I’m afraid that won’t work, this time.
I have no idea what you are doing, but if it's a moderation issue, then moderate. If it's not, then hassling someone new like this is both rude and not great for the site. It also reflects badly on moderation.
No no, Incognito has obviously looked at my email address, matched with a previous account then is using it to needle me. I had no intention of trolling or the like – just wanted to get into some conversation again but, well, I think s/he has made themselves clear.
if it’s a moderation issue, then it needs to be dealt with as moderation not trolling someone.
I’ve had a look at your email and IP address. Email address is fine. IP address is shared with someone else who is currently active on TS. If that’s you using two names, then you cannot do that. Some mods will allow a name change for a good reason, others taking a harder line, but either way you cannot run two names here at the same time.
If there is a different explanation for the same IP address, then please explain. Otherwise, please drop pick one name and stick to it.
Making a note in the back end.
The IP address matches someone else's? That's weird.
Without betraying confidence/someone elses details is the person I share an email address with a long time user here? Because it isn't me – I only have one account but am on a large network.
Unfortunately for you, I’ve now looked more closely at the email address and see it’s similar to someone who’s on a permanent ban because of a long history of trolling and causing problems for moderators by trying to skirt bans. I’m putting you on the ban list again. If you think this is a mistake, then reply and your comment will end up in the back end where I will see it.
At some point lprent will do an amnesty on the permanent bans. At which point I suggest that if you want to comment here you pick one name, stick to it, and keep your head down.
Oh right – sorry it's been so long I had forgotten I was banned. I knew my email would be picked up but hadn't remembered the ban.
That's OK, no amnesty required nor asked for. I'll just do something else with my time.
Enjoy yourself 🙂
Have to wonder what sort of training this guy had to deal with such a dangerous situation.
I am not sure what sort of training such businesses offer.
they are usually family run and they work 24/7. My family owned such a business when I was growing up. The work is endless.
your comment does hint at a blame the victim approach. Was that what you were meaning or have I misinterpreted you? My apologies if I have. The blame lies with the a…hole who stabbed the worker to death.
No doubt about where the blame lies but, family owned business or not, employers must provide proper training for staff.
Not saying they didn't but these incidents are more likely not to end in tragedy if the retail worker doesn't resist.
Also could be that he didn't resist and the perpetrator attacked him anyway.
Right, and who do you think should provide the training to the bosses? The police? The military?
Who do you think is equipped in NZ currently to ward off some shitheel with a knife? Would you be trained enough?
The last knife attacker is now in a female prison for attacking three people, inclusive his/their ex girlfriend who will have lasting scars in her face. And these victims simply had the audacity to go to a restaurant for a dinner and thought that was safe in NZ.
My shop girls training is simply.
If you think dudes/ettes outside are shifty, close the door – which we do a lot now a days.
They will have to break the door, and by that time she should be able to get out the back door.
No heroics, no nothing. Just try to get out and not worry about a single thing or a single cent. Money is replacable, a cut up face is for live. IF you can't get away, give them the contents of the till, if they want a coffee to go with that , make that coffee, pack the box of chocolates and wish them a good day. Anything to stay unharmed and alive.
But in fact there is no training that can help you to get a way from someone who just simply has no respect for others, for society or their communities.
What will happen now is that Dairys will arm themselves, will hopefully always have a two people policies – if they don't have for the most part even more CCTV that they already have and if all falters, just shut. Because clearly it onus is on us to keep us alive, the police will come to mop up what is left over if the robbery/raid goes wrong, and of course lay a charge for murder or assault.
If the government is serious about winning the next election, and helping those at risk of being impacted by rising mortgage rates, then the government should change the target inflation range temporarilly to reflect the reality of the economic situation.
Those at risk don't only include mortgage holders. But also likely tenants who may face rent increases to cover increasing mortgage costs incurred by landlords.
If a lot of the inflation is imported, then, that component of inflation will not be affected. So, the only way to bring inflation back within the target band is to basically force NZ into a full-blown recession.
I think the target rate for the next three years should be say 3-5%, which would be much more achievable with a lot less pain.
I was trying to find some data to refute your claim,
which I just don't think is true, at least not to the same scale of increase or remotely close to it. I do note you have couched your claim using the words, "likely", and "may".
There's this GA article from 2014. Best line is first in the comments section,
It is true to the extent that landlords will try to pass on their costs to tenants if they are able to. Of course, market conditions may not allow that. For instance, if there is a glut of houses on the market. So, it isn't given.
Lovely thought, but please explain how you’d ensure employment and price stability at those inflated rates.
Firstly, within a historical context, the inflation rate has been much higher in the past reaching an eye-watering 17% in 1987. So, I am not sure that 3-5% inflation is intolerable for several years, given the extra-ordinary times we have been through, and that the RB did cock things up a bit.
Secondly, adjusting the inflation target range is not without historical precedent. For instance, in 1996 the target range moved from 0-2% to 0-3%.
If we do have a recession, there is no guarantee it will be shallow, and it may cost a lot of jobs. But applying the handbrake a bit slower may allow a lot of jobs to be saved.
You didn’t answer the question, just beating around the bush.
Even if the RB crashes the economy, there still won't be price stability. For instance, we import a lot of stuff as part of my company. Prices have gone up at least 30% from most suppliers over the last several years. There is no sign that imported inflation is going to end any time soon.
What will happen though, in a recession, is a lot of people will lose their jobs, and there will be a lot of hardship that could be avoided by taking a more measured approach to bringing down inflation. It is not the fault of voters that the RB way over-stimulated the economy. Yet they are being expected to take the medicine to fix it.
Someone pays one way or another whether target inflation range stays the same or is increased temporarilly to a more realistic level. That is through either slightly higher prices, but lower interest rates. Or higher interest rates, and slightly lower prices.
One of the understood effects of the OCR tightening is the currency appreciation.There are 2 parts here the appreciation of the US$ as a reserve currency with large reservoirs for liquid assets such as cash,and the differential in the interest rates (with forex risk)
Here with the OCR being largely forecast there has been an appreciation of 10% since the start of oct,against the US$.This in turn reduces the cost of imports along with reducing the freight and insurance component ( freight rates now back to around pre covid)
The question you need to ask your supplier is why the price has not adjusted.
"Increasingly National’s election pitch is simply that they are “not Labour”. But is that really enough during an economic recession? Does National have any policies of substance that might help navigate the current economic crisis? Even if voters punish Labour for mismanaging the economy, there are no signs that they should have confidence that National would do any better."
https://democracyproject.nz/2022/11/24/bryce-edwards-politicians-and-the-reserve-bank-are-being-blamed-for-an-escalating-economic-crisis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=bryce-edwards-politicians-and-the-reserve-bank-are-being-blamed-for-an-escalating-economic-crisis
History would suggest not being the incumbent will be sufficient
When a Government takes from more people than it gives too or does not give enough to those who believe they deserve more then a majority is formed for its demise. The major problem is inflation which takes from many and gives to few – so once the incumbent Government is blamed for "letting inflation get out of control" it is on the way to being toast.
The current Gov may have a lot to answer for but in reality the current economic situation has been little influenced by them, this situation has been building since 2008 , and as is noted in the linked piece that will butter no parsnips for the electorate come next year.
Question: Why the first house price spike 2002-2008?
While looking for something else I saw again the there has been constant and severe house price inflation in NZ for 20 years now, briefly interrupted by the GFC. We know about 2010-2018 (Jong Khee), and 2020-2021 (Covid relief).
Why did the 2002-2008 spike occur? Accelerated immigration? Free trade deal with China? Is it just the cost of open tap neoliberal economics?
I suspect it is, which is why I applaud this government's commitment to managing immigration and foreign capital interference in the residential housing market.
it's also because the Retirement Commissioner spent years telling NZ to invest in property. That alongside the narrative that we couldn't afford superannuation any more and people needed to save for their own retirement. It was very anti-socialist/pro neolib.
Yes, i remember that. And the re-zoning of residential properties/zones to mixed which resulted in many nice villas being turned into offices, dental clinics and the likes. These lost residential houses were never replaced.
There was also the share market collapse in 1987 causing the losses of retirement savings of many, so for some, property probably would at least be worth something, unlike shares which can theoretically become worthless.
I also wonder how much impact Rich Dad, Poor Dad had – the book had more to it than "buy underpriced real estate using leverage", but that was probably the main message people took from it. It was published in 1997 and was a big seller, and I could see that message slowly percolating through to NZ after the 1997 Asian financial crisis as the economy first recovered in 1998-9 and then picked up steam under Labour.
Would you like to produce some evidence to support your last sentence?
I remember a real slump in house prices in 1991. I was overseas for most of 1990 and I remember when I came back giving some serious thought to buying an investment property in early 1991 as there was quite a glut on the market. I did decide not to – which was probably wise.
Can we please get rid of these repulsive commercial American holidays like black friday and thanksgiving? They are not New Zealand.
+1
wait, are people in NZ doing Thanksgiving? (who aren't American)
The big trashy retailers certainly are , and it's repulsive. Likewise Halloween has become a commercial spendfest.
I haven't seen any NZ retailers (not even Costco) advertising Thanksgiving.
OTOH – they're all going full out on Black Friday – and actually some (PB Tech) have been doing Black Friday sales for a month.
The only people in NZ I know who are doing Thanksgiving are transplanted Americans.
The funny thing is that Halloween derives from Hallowed Evening which presumably is the holy evening before All Saints Day on Nov 1st.
the great us-americanisation continues unabated……
Agree. What happened to Black Friday being any Friday that fell on the 13th of the month?
'
Engineering a Recession
Those that have shall be given more, and they will have an abundance. But those that do not have, even what they have, will be taken away from them.
Matthew 25:29
Banks made record profits, there was no pandemic for them. Rents, mortgages still had to be paid even under lock down.
To keep up with paying higher interest rates demanded by the banksters. Adrian Orr says the public will have to cut their spending,
Adrian Orr has also linked higher unemployment to job competition as the answer to 'wage inflation'.
Adrian Orr says unemployment must rise, before inflation, (particularly wage inflation) will be brought under control.
Bigger mortgage payments, less wages, more unemployment, more job competition, this is all sweet music to the banksters and bosses.
Listening to the car radio. Newstalk ZB, a representative of the banking community said; Can't meet your new mortgage interest rate. Talk to us. 'We can help. 'We don't want to see you out of your home.' 'We are here for the long haul'. (And so are you).
Bought at the high end of the housing market?
Feeling squeezed between inadequate wage increases and high interest rates?
Go to your local bank manager and beg for mercy like the desperate wretch you are, He will see what he can do for you. Agree to a mortgage holiday, or longer period of payment, he will let you stay in your home to work longer to pay off your mortgage.
The March of the Greedies;
Reserve Bank manager, Adrian Orr. also says government spending must be cut.
(Y'know, health care, education, welfare all that unnecessary stuff that gets in the way of maximising bankster profits).
No one should expect their investment to be underwritten by taxpayers. You are responsible for your own risk more than banks are.
Hindsight won't be kind to this government wasting billions on non-delivered services. Robertson may think the RB is overreacting, but honestly so did Robertson.
The fed minutes last night said they showed a greater then even chance (likely) of recession,.The IIF models forecast recession,so it is an expected outcome from high inflation and the necessary mechanism to curb animal spirits,through the forced extinction of Zombie companies,that take easy capital and transform it into empty pixels such as the removal in value of 2.2 trillion $ in crypto,or the deleveraging of property values.
https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1595075683298025477?cxt=HHwWioC9zcC47KIsAAAA