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6:00 am, September 24th, 2017 - 69 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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And so it continues….
MMP is not a first past the post system. An individual party has not won with 51% of the vote. MMP is, however, a system designed for the formation of coalition governments by those who can agree on their common interests. Over half of the electorate voted for change. If over half of the electorate can agree their common interests, and work accordingly, they have moral authority under MMP to govern.
‘Change’ was not a candidate on the voting paper I saw.
People voted for parties. Those parties need to sort out a coalition / governing arrangement.
Realistically, National are in the stronger position. Winston dislikes the Greens and Labour would have to divide the baubles of office between themselves, NZ 1st and the Greens.
People trying to convince themselves that Lab-Green-NZ 1st is just around the corner are setting themselves up for disappointment. Another one. gluttons for punishment.
Go back to National Peter we rubbished you on last night’s blog post when you raised this shoddy fake/flawed suggestion. https://thestandard.org.nz/election-night-2017/
Er … did you read what he posted?
What, exactly, are you disagreeing with?
Peter; you raised this mistake below in “Parentheses” firstly (see below) and that needs to be corrected firstly before you inject your ‘new’ views.
“So logically those who support Labour are a minority.
Get used to it, and don’t squeal.”
Peter 78
24 September 2017 at 12:33 am
The bottom line is that only one third of the voters chose Labour as their party vote.
So logically those who support Labour are a minority.
Get used to it, and don’t squeal.
[lprent: Looks you can’t use a calculator. But figure it like this National got 998,813 on the night out of 3,252,269 enrolled voters – that will be less than a third.
In other words National are a minority. Please don’t squeal as you try to chisel a thought into your dimwitted head. ]
Reply
Robert Guyton 78.1
24 September 2017 at 12:40 am
MMP. How many voted for a not-National/left wing party?
In any case, Winston will decide our fate – National or Labour/Green. Why would he choose National? We are all merely guessing. Who has solid grounds for claiming one way or the other? No one. It’s up in the air. Which means celebrating National’s success is a mistake.
Different parties do not necessarily have diametrically opposed views. Green voters I assume would be happy with a Labour lead government.
What party would the majority of NZ First voters wish to lead the Government?
Certainly none I have spoken to would want to be anywhere near the Greens who would be required to form a majority coalition with Labour. Winston would have to “share” any compromises with the Greens. And they are diametrically opposed.
NZ First with National would allow a greater degree of compromise, so let’s see what transpires. it’s now time to sit back and enjoy the ride – nothing we can do now until the kingmaker does his thing.
You appear to be talking to ex-National Party voters who are a minority in NZ1st.
And most NZ1st policy can be related with Green Party policy – they tend to the same direction. It doesn’t match National Party policy at all. National Party policy is essentially diametrically opposed to everybody else except possibly ACT.
I’m sorry Peter, but try as I might, I cannot see a coalition between Winston and the Greens lasting more than about 22 minutes. It’s one thing to form a coalition between three parties, quite another to ensure that it is stable.
I can see the trolls -“National is in a stronger position” are out.
Actually no, National are not in a stronger position than Labour. They screw over their coalition partners as they screw over the country- once bitten twice shy.
Winston worked as foreign minister under Clark and was screwed over by National when he was deputy MP and treasurer. NZ First dropped from 13.4% party votes in 1996 – after a coalition with the Natz they were out of parliament with 4.3%.
Act used to be a viable party – no longer. Gone are the conservatives, United Future and the Maori party.
Natz are weasels. A vote against them is a vote for change and a new coalition. They will drop their pants to agree to a coalition and then screw them by lunchtime and have them of parliament.
For democracy to flourish they need to form a coalition and get back to a proper democracy in this country – this is more important than any policy changes to be agreed.
Protect democracy first. Start by reform the electoral finance act. Two make lying at elections illegal. Three, increase the time for new residents to become citizens and be able to vote so parties can’t import in Right wing or vote for bribes, votes for themselves.
SAVENZ, 100%
Over in the UK the papers are correctly calling it a “hung Parliament”
You are so correct, national have been damaged and “National are not in a stronger position than Labour.”
They are mortily wounded now by lies and more lies simply that have caught up with them,
They are now a liability no other party doesnt want to be tacked onto now so Winston will aviod any association with them.
The labour coalition is made with Winston and then as the booksare openned we will see just how much this lying government robbed so many of our assets aand sold us down the river leaving us much worse off than we ever knew.
English is already claiming the moral authority to govern….he who leads a party that lied its way (hopefully not) back into government.
Yes just as shonky did using the Maori party, act and UF to flog assets, gut education/health, slam supershity through etc.
Let’s see how Bill goes working with the politician they’ve been trying to kill off in public since Key came on the scene.
Winston will be enjoying this, it’s his wet dream come true.
To be fair, the smear campaigns of lies have been as much a feature of his government as it was of his election campaign, so it’s hardly surprising that he’d lie about having the moral authority to govern.
Of more concern is the fact that 46% of the people who cast ordinary votes endorsed that approach to government.
”Of more concern is the fact that 46% of the people who cast ordinary votes endorsed that approach to government.”
aye , makes one look at his countrymen with sadness.
“Of more concern is the fact that 46% of the people who cast ordinary votes endorsed that approach to government.”
100%
A post on this once the dust settles?
I find it amazing that those who most vociferously complained about Metiria’s lies 23 years ago turn around and find excuses for Blinglish’s and Nationals. These people have no ethical compass.
Looks like Act are now irrelevant. I note NZfirst are no fans of TPPA and a lot of other National policies
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/policies
You can be sure that Winston’s first demand will be no Act.
Yup & Looks like charter schools are on borrowed time.. “Repeal the amendments to the Education Act 1989 that allowed the creation of Charter Schools at the same time as reviewing Section 156 of the Designated Character Schools section within the same Act.”
http://www.nzfirst.org.nz/education
Did anyone else here Winston say he might not go with the elites?
It was in his final speech before he caught the ferry. I haven’t found any other reference to it.
I thought he was cagey and urged folk not to speak out of turn. Time will tell.
It was the words Winston use in his finale speech last nite that gives me hope for the left
Jacinda Winston and James can form a government. And Jacinda and James did not throw Winston under the bus We no who did that.
So lets Watch JOSEPH fight and get a smile on go Joseph
Yes, it was Winston himself.
He saw he wasn’t getting much traction in the face of Jacinda mania, so he manufactured an issue.
It didn’t work, but the oddities of MMP have still put him in a strong position.
The most likely combination for the left is Labour-NZ 1st, with the Greens offering confidence and supply. 2005 all over again. How did that work out?
I agree, eco maori, I think they can too. They do at least have the ‘for the many not the few’ in common, and I think they have enough sense not to die in a ditch over pet projects when there is so much at stake – and surely Winston has had enough time to observe that as National have a habit of eating their young, his party could well end up as lunch if he went with them
First transport change must be;
Bring back all regional rail freight & passenger now!!!
Government now musr recognise the increasing population is causing a need for regional rail passenger services.
1/ This will bring down the carbon emissions and take trucks off our regional roads that are falling apart as we speak.
2/ This is causing us all massive road repair biills.
3/ And with more trucks on our roads more deaths will occur on our roads under trucks.
4/ NZTA claims each road death fatality now costs us $3.4 Million each to our economy.
That’s part of NZ1st’s, Green’s and Labour’s policies. National still want to tear it down and have more and bigger trucks.
What if Labour and Greens decide to wait for 2020 to try to get into Government…. Make this clear (e.g. don’t negotiate with NZ First). Weaken Peter’s bargaining position with National and see what ensues?
That will be a hell three years.
it could be a good way to kill of nzf for good , as national devours its partners every time ,
A burning issue.
National is selling us down the river to China.
‘Expert calls for inquiry into Chinese ‘threat’
One excerpt.
‘Brady has put together a list of individuals and companies that have been major donors to New Zealand’s political parties. They include Zhao Wu Shen and his wife Susan Chou.
In 2007 Chou donated $41,000 to Labour. Then in 2010, she donated $200,000 to National, in 2011 she donated a further $100,000, and in 2014, her family company Contue Jinwan Enterprise Limited donated $200,212.36. The couple joined in the exclusive fund-raising charity dinner for Chinese rich-listers hosted by National MP Yang Jian and attended by John Key in 2014; which raised $200,000 for National’s election campaign.
Shen had once been the biggest shareholder in the secure online file storage site, Mega.
Gao Wei has been a major donor to the National Party in recent years via his company Alpha laboratories (NZ) Limited. He donated $112,000 to National in 2017; and $50,000 in 2014. Gao has very close links with senior New Zealand and senior Chinese political figures.
In 2011 Shi Deyi (also known as Stone Shi) donated $56,500 (via Oravida NZ) to National and secured a game of golf with John Key in return. The photo of the match is still used in Oravida publicity. Shi donated a further $30,000 via Oravida in 2013,in 2016 he gave $50,000, and then a further $50,000 in 2017.
Stone Shi is now a rotating chair of a Red Capitalists organisation, the Shanghai Entrepreneurs Association This is a grouping of 2,000 of the most powerful companies in China, and is under the supervision of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce as well as the United Front Work Department.
In 2013 Ms Fan Xiaomiao donated $62,132.18 to the National Party and in 2011 she and her husband Zhang Yaxun donated $43,526.41. Zhang and his wife own Henan Province Zhou Fan Investment Company and have seven companies in New Zealand, mostly involved in agriculture.
GMP Dairy Ltd, run by Karl Ye, donated NZ$25,338 to the New Zealand National Party in 2015 GMP paid for two National MPs, Jamie-Lee Ross and Stuart Smith to visit China in 2016.
In 2017 Lang Lin, owner of Inner Mongolia Rider Horse Industry (NZ) Ltd donated $150,000 to National. Lang’s company is backed by the Chinese government investment firm CITIC (China International Trust and Investment Company) who are sponsoring his bid to expand China’s racing industry through importing New Zealand race horses. CITIC was set up under United Front Work Department auspices.’
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/18/48616/expert-calls-for-inquiry-into-chinese-threat
You should do a whole post on this.
Might be worth polishing off your Bruce Jesson on the interrelationships of British interests in New Zealand up to the early 1980s, and of the mix of ownership and imputed influence that different governments have in New Zealand, especially the US. That would make for a richer exercise.
Yes, we have been a colony for a long time.
Having just escaped being a British colony, we seem hell bent on being a US and then Chinese colony.
Looking at the party vote in electorates, after the preliminary count, Labour have increased the number of general roll electorates where it is the largest party from 4 to 15 (this year, like 2014, Labour easily swept the 7 Maori seats). Pleasingly it looks as if it Labour will not come worse than second in any seat, which it did in 5 electorates last time round (Auck Central, BoP, Helensville, Tauranga and Well Central).
Specials may see another another 6 electorates switch blue to red (current Nat to Lab margin):Wigram (117), Palmerston North (337), Te Atatu (389), Mt Roskill (611), New Lynn (702), Auck Central (739).
In terms of reducing the margin between Labour and National, Labour did best in these electorates (decrease in margin National to Labour):
Port Hills (8,355)
Nelson (7,834)
Epsom (7,519)
New Plymouth (7,248)
North Shore (7,001)
Ilam (6,866)
Well Central (6,864)
D South (6,405)
Chch Central (6,327)
National lost ground to Labour in all seats bar 3, Mangere, Manakau East and Manurewa. As of the preliminary count, the National vote in these seats is still lower than that 2014, its just that the Labour vote in these electorates is markedly down on 2014. In terms of what sort of trend can be gleaned from this, Labour also did not do as well in closing its margin to National/or increasing its margin over National in these general roll seats (improvement in margin): New Lynn (349), Kelston (533), Mt Roskill (1,578), Te Atatu (1,622), Botany (2,160). These eight seats are all in Auckland, they contain the 4 electorates where Labour was the largest party by party vote in 2014. It may be a case of diminishing returns. It could just be, given the relative small size of Auckland electorates, that more people voted outside of their electorates, and specials will change this.
Is someone here going to do a review of the Greens electoral performance?
Aren’t you an author?
Would be great if Winston and Jacinda could work as co-leaders.
Winston is a statesman and Jacinda is the energy. James could be deputy. Then we would have the “change team” so badly sought and needed in NZ. And , thank you and sorry to Gareth. The average public can be slow learners as their free time to consider new ideas is very limited in this day and age. Be patient.
Winston doesn’t have the personal skills to be a co-leader and would be an appalling PM. He’s a grouchy, self-centered misogynist.
Also with the demise of the Maori party the interests of maori would be represented more in the “Change Party”
I don’t think Winston will will go with any of them, he will offer National confidence and supply only. I think that’s the best we can hope for as there isn’t a snow balls chance in hell he would go with the greens. And if he went with Labour his ex National supporters would punish him next time.
Interesting idea….
Not go with the Greens – being repeated endlessly – remember Winston does surprises, he moves with the times up to a point and he is pragmatic – look how long he has been in parliament
You’d be wrong there. There’s more overlap between NZ1st and Greens policies than there are between National and NZ1st.
True but he’d (well, NZ1st would) still get in. The other way he wouldn’t.
If Winnie gives only confident and supply does this mean that the Government would be without sufficient numbers and would not be able to pass any laws for the next 3 years. This might be the only hope we have, to keep them crippled and powerless.
What staggered me is the huge margins which the Nat electorates won by – are there no conservative critial thinkers in this country – are they all just robotic fluffy brains.
I can see the suicide stats will soar in the next 3 years – what a tragic and shameful legacy the Nats are going to leave for the history books.
What has Brexit got to teach us, (and how alike is our situation to that of Greece? Don’t believe what we are told, read about our and their financial situation).
https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2017/09/10/for-europes-sake-britain-must-not-be-defeated-op-ed-in-the-sunday-times-1092017/
Ever since Theresa May embarked on her ill-conceived journey towards an ill-defined hard Brexit, I have been warning my friends in Britain of what lies ahead. The EU would not negotiate with London, I told them. Under the guise of negotiations it would force May and her team to expend all their energies negotiating for the right to . . . negotiate.
Meanwhile, its media cheerleaders would work feverishly towards demeaning London’s proposals, denigrating its negotiators and reversing the truth in ways that Joseph Goebbels would have been proud of…
Right on cue came the leaks that followed the dinner that the prime minister hosted for Jean-Claude Juncker in 10 Downing Street on April 26 — their explicit purpose being to belittle their host. Then came the editorials by the usual suspects — the journalists that Brussels uses to leak its propaganda — deploring the “lack of preparation” by the British — using Berlin’s and Brussels’s favourite put-down that “they have not done their homework”.
As I promised on the day I resigned from Greece’s finance ministry, after my prime minister’s capitulation to that same Brussels-Berlin cabal, I wear their loathing with pride.
But I worry that Brussels and Berlin may succeed in damaging Britain, as they previously succeeded in damaging my people.
Yanis Varoufakis – In January 2015, Varoufakis was appointed as the Minister of Finance, and led negotiation with Greece’s creditors during the Greek government-debt crisis. However, he failed to reach an agreement with creditors, leading to the 2015 Greek bailout referendum.
The day following the referendum, on 6 July 2015, Varoufakis resigned as Minister of Finance and was replaced by Euclid Tsakalotos. On 24 August, Varoufakis voted against the third bailout package, and in the ensuing September snap election, did not stand for re-election. Varoufakis has since appeared in numerous debates, lectures, and interviews. In February 2016, he launched the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 (DiEM25), and subsequently backed a Remain vote in the UK’s European Union membership referendum 2016.
On 2 April 2016, in reaction to tension between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the IMF, Varoufakis said there was underway “an attrition war between a reasonably numerate villain (the IMF) and a chronic procrastinator (Berlin)” as to Greek debt relief.
In April 2016, Varoufakis publicly supported the idea of a basic income.[40]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yanis_Varoufakis
On Varoufakis’ book Adults in the Room: My Battle with Europe’s Deep Establishment
3 May 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/03/yanis-varoufakis-greece-greatest-political-memoir
Yanis Varoufakis: Is Capitalism Compatible With Democracy? : NPR
http://www.npr.org/2016/11/04/500126088/is-capitalism-compatible-with-democracy
Nov 4, 2016 – Yanis Varoufakis proposes a provocative idea: democracy is not compatible with capitalism. He argues … Related TED Link: Yanis Varoufakis’s TED Bio.
I wonder if Winston will be starting to think about what sort of legacy he will leave behind? self serving, or hero of the people?
Hero of the people hopefully.
Aye to that
Spain ups the ante.
The Spanish authorities have moved to place all policing in Catalonia under central control to stop the disputed independence referendum on 1 October.
Col Diego Pérez de los Cobos has been put in charge of Catalan and central police forces in the autonomous region.
The order was justified as a way to achieve better co-ordination. But the Catalan authorities rejected it, saying it was an unacceptable interference.
Thousands of extra police are being sent to the region to block the vote.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41373977
http://norightturn.blogspot.co.nz/2017/09/this-is-how-civil-wars-start.html
Heather du Plessis-Allan admires liars.
we need a better media.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11925611
Ed, we need a better media. Have you only just found that out ?
No, Du Plessis-Allan has just Googled “dead cats”.
So now election night has passed it’s time for media to stop speculating on outcomes, instead, they could do some investigative journalism on a number of important matters that need addressing.
Cause let’s face it, media following around Winnie and the other leaders asking who they are going with is just gossip chasing.
PS Congratulations to the opposition parties of NZ, looking forward to the results of the specials. MMP 😀
This is something that needs to be investigated.
Has the National Party become a puppet of the Chinese government?
‘According to Brady, New Zealand underestimates its importance to China, mistakenly thinking it’s just a small player at the bottom of the world.
“First, the New Zealand government is responsible for the defence and foreign affairs of three other territories in the South Pacific: Cook Islands, Niue, and Tokelau — which potentially means four votes for China at international organisations. New Zealand is a claimant state in Antarctica and one of the closest access points there; China has a long-term strategic agenda in Antarctica that will require the cooperation of established Antarctic states such as New Zealand. New Zealand has cheap arable land and a sparse population and China is seeking to access foreign arable land to improve its food safety. New Zealand now supplies 24 percent of China’s foreign milk, and China is the biggest foreign investor in New Zealand’s dairy sector”.’
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/18/48616/expert-calls-for-inquiry-into-chinese-threat
x 100%
Labour will only win the argument when it gains some courage, like it is in the UK…..
Taking on big business.
‘Labour has accused big business leaders of “siphoning away” taxpayers’ money into their own pockets, leaving young British people without the future prospects they deserve.’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-conference-jeremy-corbyn-barry-gardiner-business-siphoning-piles-of-cash-a7963841.html
A lot of us have been saying that for years now and all we’ve seen is Labour continuously kowtowing to business.
Well that was fun my son and I just changed cv joint in my his truck and I missed the fight I heard Joseph won big upps to him and hjs team I will watch the fight now It has been great reading all your post and I have learned a lot from my fellow bloggers I hope Winston will team up with Labour and the Greens all the best to everyone on thestandard.
One of my devices doesn’t have the Reply tab on it I’m worndering what’s up be cause I will be going to where there is only cell ph coverage !!!!!!!!!!
If our brothers and sisters in the USA can start to organised together. Don’t you think we should. It is not enough to think politicians can actually change anything without external pressure from the outside.
To right adam we have to keep them honest I will still Be posting on the standard for a while It helps me keep my stress levels down especially when I see the Kiwi wit in Its Truest form on this site,
The latest sharp cut in the NZ environmental body –
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/countrylife/audio/201859578/tackling-red-needle-cast
We need a sort of Blip’s list of the new exotic diseases and plants that continue to destroy our natural resource of being an island. Biosecurity can never stop this by being properly peopled and being thorough, they can only try and do their best.
This flood of tourists are going to spread every known disease on the planet here and those companies will have to pay into a remedial fund.
Teaching excellence in the hard poverty area of one person in the Ted Talk on Radionz. ‘The majority of my students don’t feel loved. That’s why the Principal says that if nobody loves you today, I tell you I do to the kids. That and a system of acceptable behaviour that is non-negotiable has resulted in her being respected – and loved. Listen to:
Linda Cliatt-Wayman: What Can We Do To Empower Students Living In Poverty?
My slogan, what we need today is – kindness and practicality.
Radio New Zealand
about 1 hour ago
Rethinking School – 24 September
From TED Radio Hour, about 1 hour ago
For most of modern history, humans have placed smaller humans in institutions called schools. But what parts of this model still work? And what must change? This hour, TED speakers rethink education.
Tyler DeWitt: How Do We Get Kids Hooked On Science?
Andreas Schleicher: What Are The Keys To A Successful Education System?
Sal Khan: Can Technology Help Create A Global Classroom?
Linda Cliatt-Wayman: What Can We Do To Empower Students Living In Poverty?
A good idea that ed biz can try. Get your students to do their classwork on the internet, the educator found that youtube was good. When they come to school the teacher can tutor them, answer their questions, give them one on one when needed. The youngsters seem to learn better out of the noise and stress of the classroom, and come to school with the thinking done and questions ready about problems. That came from Can technology help,,,,,
My gravatar has gone weird. It’s kind of doing a “kilroy was here” with just the top little bit of it peeking out over a blank space instead of a full square. Does it look like that on other people’s machines? Everyone else’s gravatar is displaying normally on my machine.
NZ Passport recipient, the billionaire Peter Thiel, of Facebook’s board, was an advisor to the Trump campaign, and Facebook’s collusion with Russian funders of fake news advertisements is now front and center in the Trump Russia story.
Well Isn’t he one of keys bills M8 there a lot of questions to be asked on that subject we have had OUR ELECTION HACKED BUY HUME well we no from history that they have been doing that for years and than cry when someone returns the favor. We don’t need foreigners interfering in OUR ELECTION they are only have there interest which is money we need to look after OUR people.
Good fight Joseph I’VE got some good advice for your camp but I will not put it out there as everyone else’s would no and that’s not wise.
I’ve been trying to give up smoking for a few years now The longest I stopped was 2 weeks and that was because our fishing trip took 3 weeks longer and we ran out it’s had to kick that habbet I see some one else has Given up big upps to Winston for kicking the habbit .I wonder if the there going to step up the intimated today!!!!!😊😊😊😊😊😊