Open mike 25/05/2014

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, May 25th, 2014 - 151 comments
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openmike Open mike is your post.

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Step up to the mike …

151 comments on “Open mike 25/05/2014 ”

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  1. karol 1
    25 May 2014 at 7:26 am

    It’s good to see The Greens improving their represetation in Auckland, and adding more Maori candidates. They’ve also gone with some rejuventation, as some longer term MPs have slipped down the rankings.

    • JanM 1.1
      25 May 2014 at 7:36 am

      But have you read Andrea Vance’s article in Stuff on the subject? Unethical and disingenuous spring immediately to mind – what a cow!

      • karol 1.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 7:43 am

        That’s the article I tried to link to. I don’t see a problem with Vance’s article. Will fix the link.

        Except maybe Vance’s accentuating the overseas links for the 5 bios at the bottom. I would like to have known who the other top 20 MPs are on the list.

        • JanM 1.1.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 8:10 am

          Take a critical look at what she says about the candidates – do you really think the way she has described them is ok?

          “FIVE ON THE RISE IN NEW-LOOK GREEN LIST

          GARETH HUGHES, 32. Oceans spokesman and baby-faced father of two. Has led public campaigns opposing deep-sea oil-drilling. Was once arrested while chained to a fence dressed as Ronald McDonald, protested the use of genetically modified ingredients in fast food.

          JULIE ANNE GENTER, 34. US-born, grew up in Los Angeles before moving to Auckland to become a transport planner. The party’s candidate for the key Epsom seat. Says she’s “into lively streets, real food and bicycles”.

          MOJO MATHERS, 47. London-born, the country’s first deaf MP. The mother-of-three was named after the song “Got my Mojo Working”.

          JAMES SHAW, 41. Business consultant specialising in sustainable development. Stood as a list candidate while still living in London in 2008 to campaign for the expatriate vote. In 2011, dressed as the Green Lantern for a campaign fundraiser.

          EUGENIE SAGE, 56. Once a press secretary to then-housing minister Helen Clark. Calls herself a “green greenie” and party members liken her to former leader Jeanette Fitzsimons. Was a sacked Environment Canterbury regional councillor.”

          • phillip ure 1.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 8:28 am

            i don’t actually see anything that necessarily ‘bad’ about those descriptions..

            ..it’s hardly vitriol..

            ..and i do think you are being a tad precious..

            ..tho’ it’s a shame vance

            .. missed perhaps kennedy grahams’ most powerful-weapon/feature..

            ..his death-stare…

            ..i keep on half-expecting laser-beams to shoot out..

            ..and to fry whichever rightwing-ratbag has spurred his ire..

            • phillip ure 1.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2014 at 8:56 am

              and my take wd be:..(from observations made doing commentaries on q-time in parliament for far longer than i should have..)

              hughes:..cursed with a baby-face..which stalls impressions of gravitas..(but which..as a fellow baby-facer.. i can tell him he will be grateful for as he gets older..as all around him wrinkle..that is the good news..)

              ..i have never ever seen him really fire in parliament..(maybe he has yet to hit his stride..)

              ..and i see that at some stage delahunty seduced him into her costume-as-protest inclinations..

              ..and suckered him into a chicken-suit..(where is the dignity..?..i hear you ask..)

              ..and young/new/current greens should take that as a warning..

              ..if you see delahunty bearing down on you wielding chicken-costumes/flummery ..

              ..and the like..

              ..run..run for the hills..!..

              genter:..to me genter is the most interesting/capable of the next generation of green mp’s..

              ..her performances against a lumbering/clumsy brownlee in parliament are a delight to behold..

              ..she verbally dances around him..a darting dragonfly to his shrek..

              ..and if she is not minister of transport in a new govt..

              ..there is no justice in this world..

              ..and if genter gets this gig..we will have inner-city bikeways..and the like.. coming out of our ears..

              ..and this is a good thing..

              mathers:..not much to say..except the mojo-revelation begging the question:..

              ..does her ‘mojo’ really work..

              ..shaw:..a blank canvas..i know nothing of him..but i note he too got delahuntyed..)

              sage:..a very serious person..

              ..takes everything pretty seriously..

              ..lot’s of browns/greens in her house..?

              ..(and perhaps the most ‘mung-bean’ of these listed mp’s..)

              (n.b. i have never met/seen any of these people in person…this is all ‘psychic’/an orifice-pluck..on my part..)

              • robertguyton …
                25 May 2014 at 9:25 am

                Phil
                Dave Kennedy, from Invercargill, has secured the no. 19 spot. He writes a blog, Local Bodies and if you’d like someone to vouch for him, I’ll declare that my brother-in-law will make an excellent Green MP. He’s hard-working and sincere, plus he’s got his head around almost every possible issue and wherehe hasn’t, he’s working on it.. Here’s my post on Dave’s rise and rise.

                http://robertguyton.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/dave-kennedy-19-today.html

                • phillip ure …
                  25 May 2014 at 9:32 am

                  hello robert..what percentage does he need to get in..?

                  • robertguyton …
                    25 May 2014 at 9:47 am

                    Hi Phil
                    Good to hear that you and your dogs are in rude health – vegans rule, at least they seem to in Invercargill where the movement has some very active and entertaining members who appear at all sorts of events, peddling their animal-products-free wares (muffins to die for!). Jordan Wyatt, you might know him, vegan activist extraordinaire. I’m not sure what ‘percentage’ Dave needs. It seems to me that if he just keeps on doing what he’s doing, he’ll get there. He’s dogged 🙂 The Nat candidates down here are extra-flakey this time around, a Philip Morris tobacco man/boy and a blond who declared her wish to ‘troop around Parliament in my stilettos’. They look very foolish beside Dave’s poise.

              • greywarbler …
                25 May 2014 at 5:02 pm

                phil
                sounds like the real gen.

            • JanM 1.1.1.1.1.2
              25 May 2014 at 9:01 am

              It’s
              1 Damning by faint praise – focusing on trivia and leaving almost anything of real worth out
              2 Making sure she includes at least one negative or at least ‘clownish’ activity from the point of view of potential voters
              Vitriol would have been better – easier to see

              • phillip ure …
                25 May 2014 at 9:35 am

                so..why don’t you give us what you would have liked to see..?

                ..give us those ‘real worth’ bits you bemoan being excluded..

                ..(bullet-points will suffice..)

                • Stephanie Rodgers …
                  25 May 2014 at 10:26 am

                  GARETH HUGHES
                  – Greenpeace activist and campaign coordinator

                  JULIE ANNE GENTER
                  – 5 years’ private sector experience in transport and urban planning

                  MOJO MATHERS
                  – Holds degrees in mathematics and conservation forestry
                  – First profoundly deaf MP in New Zealand history
                  – Founding member of the Malvern Hills Protection Society

                  JAMES SHAW
                  – Extensive private sector experience focusing on corporate social responsibility and leadership development

                  EUGENIE SAGE
                  – Veteran environmental activist
                  – Undemocratically deposed former ECan councillor

                  … and that’s just what I can find with a quick search. Imagine what journalists could uncover if they asked actual questions!

              • Karen …
                25 May 2014 at 10:01 am

                +1 Jan
                My immediate response was the same as yours Jan. I thought it deliberately tried to reinforce the idea being promulgated by the right that the Green Party candidates are all a bit flakey.

                • JanM …
                  25 May 2014 at 10:24 am

                  Thanks Karen – precisely. The hidden message was ‘would you vote for this collection of loons?’

                  • phillip ure …
                    25 May 2014 at 10:36 am

                    hint:..if seeking political-gravitas..

                    ..(and if yr policies are portrayed in the media as ‘loony’..to begin with..)

                    ..don’t dress in chicken/green-lantern-suits..

                    ..or if doing so..do it in the privacy of yr own home..

                    ..(shouldn’t that be a ‘given’..?..)

                    ..and certainly then don’t expect everyone to just ignore that chicken-suit-period in yr lives..

                    ..i thought the chicken-suits were a bad idea back then..

                    ..(for just those reasons..)

                    ..and i still do..

                    ..and to continue the bird-metaphor..

                    ..it’s an albatross those involved hung around their own necks..

                    • phillip ure …
                      25 May 2014 at 11:24 am

                      a witty/well-written/potent protest-placard/sign will outdo a chicken-suit any day of the week..

                      ..in getting a message thru/across..

                      (tho’..i must confess..that at an vivisectionists’-conference demo in hamilton..

                      ..some years back..

                      ..i had far too much fun dressed in a realistic gorilla suit..carrying a potent anti-vivisection sign/placard..

                      ..and roaming on my own..thru the malls..terrifying the good burghers of hamilton..)

                  • DH …
                    25 May 2014 at 10:58 am

                    “The hidden message was ‘would you vote for this collection of loons?’”

                    Yup, I thought the same. Snide & mocking. It could be the sub editor’s work but if Vance is responsible she should be ashamed of herself.

                  • Anne …
                    25 May 2014 at 11:10 am

                    The hidden message was ‘would you vote for this collection of loons?’

                    Precisely.

                    One woman putting down a group of other women – and one baby-faced young father. Perhaps it takes a woman to recognise the vitriolic sentiments in the words of another woman.

                    • JanM …
                      25 May 2014 at 11:25 am

                      I don’t think it’s predominantly sexist really, Anne -it’s the old hidden ‘right agenda’ in a slightly more subtle form than usual. I think the trick to seeing what she is up is to envisage the audience she is targeting.
                      There are national voters out there who would sooner eat their young than vote for anything as ‘common’ as labour – you know the kind I mean – the semi-educated upwardly mobile with fragile egos – but who can associate with the more upmarket concept of conservation. They are, however, easily diverted by associations with ‘loonies’ – they take themselves very seriously and hate to be laughed at

                    • phillip ure …
                      25 May 2014 at 12:51 pm

                      crikey jan m..!

                      ..you don’t think you are over-thinking this..?

                      ..just ever so slightly..?

                    • felix …
                      25 May 2014 at 7:00 pm

                      Spot on JanM

          • ScottGN 1.1.1.1.2
            25 May 2014 at 8:39 am

            I’m a Labour voter but I really do hope Julie Anne Genter gets to add ‘Right Honourable” to her CV after she becomes Transport Minister later this year.

            • alwyn 1.1.1.1.2.1
              25 May 2014 at 8:55 am

              That would be very unlikely ScottGN

              The Title of “Right Honourable” is limited to the following positions.
              1. Governor General
              2. Prime Minister
              3. Speaker of the House
              4. Chief Justice.

              Just which of these positions do you think she will be occupying in the event that the left can form a Government?

              Perhaps you mean “Honourable” which would put her in the same category as John Banks.

              • Skinny …
                25 May 2014 at 10:02 am

                Ha ha that gave me a chuckle Alwyn, “Honourable and Banks”

                After proceedings conclude at the old bailey his title may well change to the “dishonourable bent Bankie”

            • Skinny 1.1.1.1.2.2
              25 May 2014 at 10:50 am

              Yes I think you can take that as a given that Labour will appoint Julie Anne as the Transport Minister. There are a number of reasons, one being she is the best credentialed candidate from any of the Left bloc. Another is the obvious concessions that Labour has to make, it’s hardly likely they are going to give Norman the Finance portfolio is it. It has a slightly insincere element also, by flinging hospital passes to the Greens, letting them push for costly Auckland Rail Loop, axing some of Nationals major roading projects. This makes Transport a tough portfolio, however I think Genter and the Greens will make a good go of it.

          • Murray Olsen 1.1.1.1.3
            25 May 2014 at 9:16 pm

            Vance has certainly linked with every foreign reference she could find. I agree with you that she’s trying to be cunning and write a very negative piece while appearing neutral. Happily, I don’t think potential Green voters are too swayed by xenophobia. All Vance has done is show her own prejudices.

            • karol 1.1.1.1.3.1
              25 May 2014 at 9:34 pm

              It also depends how many people took much notice of the bottom bit. I paid most attention to the actual article – which was fairly straight forward. I skimmed the thumb nail sketches at the bottom, because I know about those people. I was a little frustrated the rest of the list wasn’t shown. I did look for it on the Green Party website, but it wasn’t up early on this morning.

        • Pasupial 1.1.1.2
          25 May 2014 at 9:30 am

          Top 20 on list:

          TUREI, Metiria
          NORMAN, Russel
          HAGUE, Kevin
          SAGE, Eugenie
          HUGHES, Gareth
          DELAHUNTY, Catherine
          GRAHAM, Kennedy
          GENTER, Julie Anne
          MATHERS, Mojo
          LOGIE, Jan
          CLENDON, Dave
          WALKER, Holly
          SHAW, James
          ROCHE, Denise
          BROWNING, Steffan
          DAVIDSON, Marama
          COATES, Barry
          HART, John
          KENNEDY, Dave
          ELLEY, Jeanette

          https://www.greens.org.nz/press-releases/green-party-unveils-strong-party-list-2014-election

          • phillip ure 1.1.1.2.1
            25 May 2014 at 9:43 am

            genter too low..

            ..(how can delahunty have done better than her..?.good grief..!..)

            ..davidson..far far too low..(she should be in the top six..)

            ..and elley..?..really..?

            • bad12 1.1.1.2.1.1
              25 May 2014 at 11:31 am

              It’s not about your perceptions Phillip, its about how the Party members see things,

              Lazy me would like to know from anyone with the information at hand in their head what % of the Party vote will the Green Party need to get Marama Davidson into the Parliament,

              Right now my intention is to Party vote tactically which means for me a vote for Mana or Mana/internet should the alliance of the 2 occur,

              i do tho have a conflicting imperative of believing that Marama will make an excellent MP which might as we get closer to E day have me voting in that vein…

              • phillip ure …
                25 May 2014 at 11:37 am

                provincial/regional block-voting also has a large part to play..

                ..that’s how that guy mike from nelson got in..way back then..

                ..and as noted..the christchurch greens have ended strongly..

                ..(i smell block-voting redux..)

              • alwyn …
                25 May 2014 at 1:50 pm

                If every vote cast was to count the Green percentage to get 16 MPs, which appears to be her list position, would be about (16/120) * 100 or about 13.4%.
                In practice there are always some wasted votes so it will be less than that and they will need around 13%. Tough ask in my view as the party usually drops below their poll results when it comes to an election.

  2. xtasy 2
    25 May 2014 at 7:51 am

    ‘Work Ability Assessments’ done for Work and Income, and the private, outsourced, supposedly “independent” providers that have been contracted to deliver this new “service”.

    Learn more about what is coming to YOU now as part of the newest phase in the implementation of welfare reforms:
    http://accforum.org/forums/index.php?/topic/16092-work-ability-assessments-done-for-work-and-income-%E2%80%93-partly-following-acc%E2%80%99s-approach-a-revealing-fact-study/

    This is stuff NO mainstream media will report to you! It is a comprehensive study giving a detailed overview of what led to the introduction of this program, about the new provisions in the Social Security Act, how it all compares with what ACC do in the way of assessments, who the providers are, who they employ to deliver what kind of services, and what legal implications there will be.

    Also included is an analysed interview by Director for Welfare Reform, Sandra Kirikiri, from MSD, who gave an interview on Radio NZ National a month or so ago, as well as some revealing OIA responses on related matters.

    This is stuff that should also be discussed leading up to the general election, but as it seems to be “too sensitive”, most politicians seem reluctant to touch it.

    There is also still some information on the more “traditional”, also supposedly “independent” medical and work capability assessors that WINZ have so far used, and who they will apparently also continue to use – designated doctors, and what they are about:
    http://accforum.org/forums/index.php?/topic/15463-designated-doctors-%e2%80%93-used-by-work-and-income-some-also-used-by-acc/

    Worth noting re all this, even a government friendly “blogger” from the “other side” appears to now accept, that not all is going right with the welfare reforms that “auntie” Paula Bennett and her buddies from this government have served up to us:
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/05/a_disabling_bug.html

    P.S.: Many thanks to a few loyal, dedicated friends, who made the efforts to collate this information, and put it all together, working with affected. There’s more info where this comes from, but I will not tire you with it now.

  3. greywarbler 3
    25 May 2014 at 8:26 am

    Wallace Chapman on Radionz had interesting discussion on voting this morning.
    Other countries – have compulsory voting. Have option of not voting for any of above. ( Even though we have MMP which offers more choice than the bi-party Westminster model that could be good.) Thinking of a start of 16 years age. Ireland has been working with people in planning changes, they have been chosen at random, and I think the number is 66. (I think that we should have the option of working on policy, drawn at random from a group who have done a diploma study of basic government policy matters. It is time to have informed people having input from the citizens. And the diploma people will put their own names forward, so there should be wider background.)

    • Colonial Viper 3.1
      25 May 2014 at 9:36 am

      Wallace Chapman on Radionz had interesting discussion on voting this morning.
      Other countries – have compulsory voting

      And we still have levels of turnout that they would be proud of, without compulsory voting. I’m not sure what this fetish for doing things some foreign but often worse way is.

      • lprent 3.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 9:42 am

        Yeah, listened to it at the airport. I may have to start getting up earlier on sunday morning

      • bad12 3.1.2
        25 May 2014 at 11:22 am

        Am also in favor of compulsory voting, we have compulsory registering to vote so why not, it seems a small price to pay for a strong democracy once every 3 years to cast a vote,

        Allowing voting to occur over a week long period in selected polling places with the main event still on the one day would make it easier for everyone to participate…

  4. greywarbler 4
    25 May 2014 at 8:35 am

    Is there a quota in newsrooms of crime, disaster, tragedy, outbursts of human or animal behaviour that is grotesque? Which might explain why we have to hear the latest shooting/ outrage from the USA. It seems that country is our near neighbour, close to our hearts, full of people we have an interest in. Though presumably there are matters happening in nearer Cook Islands, Tonga and so on that should find its way into our National news. They do have their own Pacific News slot but if sport can find its way out of its special slot to the main news, so could pacific news.

    The USA is on the edge of the Pacific and is far from peaceful as that name implies. But Hawaii is involved with USA. There are Maori who are interested in Hawaii. Let’s hear from that country as they have already had their association with the USA decided by that country in the early 1900’s. We may have to follow that pattern. It might be politic to form associations and take an interest in them now as a primary way of awareness of happenings in that part of the Pacific.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1
      25 May 2014 at 9:40 am

      Is there a quota in newsrooms of crime, disaster, tragedy, outbursts of human or animal behaviour that is grotesque?

      They are all dramatic, heart rending stories which capture attention, soak up the imagination, and completely avoid challenging the narrative, actions or power structures of the elite and the wealthy.

      • Draco T Bastard 4.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 2:35 pm

        +1

      • Murray Olsen 4.1.2
        25 May 2014 at 9:33 pm

        There’s also the humdrum explanation that the news comes from a couple of international wire services, which used to be AP and Reuters. There are other agencies which specialise in a wider variety of news, but they don’t tend to get used in Aotearoa. Thank Atua for the internet, even though it needs taking with many grains of salt. That’s the mechanism, but the fundamental explanation is to dumb down the electorate. I’m convinced of that.

        • phillip ure 4.1.2.1
          25 May 2014 at 9:48 pm

          “..There are other agencies which specialise in a wider variety of news, but they don’t tend to get used in Aotearoa..”

          (ahem..!..whoar..?..)

  5. the voter 5
    25 May 2014 at 8:48 am

    Maybe we could look at the up coming election a bit like the election at the end of WW2 in britain and vote Key out now that everything is OK since the biggest financial crisis since the 1930’s is over according to him anyway and short circuit any need to listen to anymore of his Tory bullshit.
    That way he’ll be able to satisfy his ego and not go down the path that he took during the crash of 1987 and be part of the global finance heist that brought about the 2008 crash.
    The arrogance of this govt to expect us to swallow any more BS about how well we are doing is appalling since Key has to return in the next election to serve his masters on the TPPA to complete the job which actually started with Roger Douglas and got checked mainly by the ineptitude of previous National govts and was nearly annihilated before the 2008 crash ,ie its been in the pipeline alot longer than the present round of selling off the last of NZ to the rest of the world on their terms
    Also it would be nice to have Labour NZF and the Greens holding the Nats against the wall so that they cant move an inch unless the aforesaid coalition says so like National has done for 2 terms

  6. bad12 6
    25 May 2014 at 10:09 am

    For the politically addicted, both TV1 and TV3 will have their latest polling out tonight, a hint from TV1 is David Cunliffe’s 2% rise in polled support,(which hopefully has also translated across to the Party %)…

  7. Herodotus 7
    25 May 2014 at 10:15 am

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11260348
    Springpark is seen as an affordable homes project, with townhouses in stage one priced from $399,000 to $554,000
    How easily $400-$500k has become entrenched into our vocab as ” affordable”, and accepted by many as being do.To many this is still priced at an unaffordable level and will be unattainable.

    • bad12 7.1
      25 May 2014 at 10:55 am

      Its a conversation for, of, and by the middle class, those that cannot afford such prices simply become like the unemployed/beneficiaries non-persons to be ignored,

      There is plenty of political hay to be made in the Boo Hoo that the prices are out of reach of the children of the current generation of the middle class who in all reality created the un-affordability in the first place,

      Here’s a few reasons:

      The property ladder, Mc-mansions of 200+ square meters,
      The property ladder, the love of the rental property, 200,000 previous ‘homes’ crossed over to being ‘rentals’ in 20 years,

      Free money, the accommodation supplement on the surface a payment to help those with low incomes,
      Free money, the ability for those owning rental property to write of any ‘losses’ on such property against other income including wages, hell why wouldn’t they and Governments have allowed this largely unknown,(except by those in the know),to carry on for the past 20 years,

      Is there a ‘coincidence’ in the property ladder having transferred 200,000 former homes into ‘rentals’ in 20 years and the fact that the tax lawyers 20 years ago came up with the tax dodge where losses on the ‘rental’ were allowed to be written off against taxes on other income including wages,

      My brother who paid out 3 grand for the privilege of learning how to do this at a seminar run by the Australian tax lawyers who imported this little dodge and a bunch of drooling real estate agents and dived into 2 rental properties as a result would say a big Yes to that question…

      • Olwyn 7.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 12:13 pm

        Along related lines bad12, I noticed, at the bottom of this piece on the sad, accidental death of an elderly Cockle Bay man, the estimated value of his house.

        http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/10081337/Man-dies-in-lift-shaft-fall-in-east-Auckland

        Similarly, one does not hear mention of certain suburbs on the news without the inclusion adjectives like “exclusive” or “upmarket” – “exclusive Herne Bay,” “upmarket Parnell,” etc. It seems as if touting real estate wherever possible has become one of the media’s core functions.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 1:51 pm

          The media targets an audience with disposable income and discretionary time. Not the hard up struggling working class trying to juggle 3 part time jobs. So yes, you’re about right.

          • Olwyn 7.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 2:17 pm

            But even if they do target such people, is it really necessary, relevant or even decent to mention the estimated dollar value of a man’s house when the story is that he has died falling down a lift shaft in it?

            • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2014 at 2:50 pm

              Nope but society has moved to the point where people are only valued by how rich they are.

    • DH 7.2
      25 May 2014 at 5:22 pm

      “How easily $400-$500k has become entrenched into our vocab as ” affordable””

      One of the problems is interest rates. In 2008 a $300,000 25yr mortgage had repayments of $580 per week. Today a $391,000 25yr mortgage costs $580 per week. That’s the difference 6% interest makes against 9%.

      House prices went up but to a certain level the actual cost of the house did not. If interest rates stay low the $390k house costs the home buyer today the same as a $300k house cost in 2008.

      Labour are determined to keep interest rates low so we won’t see house prices falling under them.

      It may also interest that the $300k mortgage fell to $445 per week in 2009, that’s a saving of $7020 annually that only a mortgage holder received. People who owned property(and had a mortgage) didn’t just make a handsome capital gain over the last six years they also had a very, very, substantial increase in disposable income… and a tax cut.

  8. Chooky 8
    25 May 2014 at 10:28 am

    Martyn Bradbury on whipping up the bullshit terrorist threat in New Zealand :

    “There’s something terribly manufactured by this sudden exposure of domestic terrorism at a time the Government is about to face intense scrutiny over how the intelligence agencies have been behaving behind our backs.”

    Manufacturing a domestic Muslim threat in Auckland as Drone strike leaks loom –

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/24/manufacturing-a-domestic-muslim-threat-in-auckland-as-drone-strike-leaks-loom/

  9. bad12 9
    25 May 2014 at 10:35 am

    ”How long is a piece of string” is usually my response to discussions about the length of my expected life,

    Turns out, unwittingly, that response is not that far off of the mark with Genetic science turning increasingly to the study of Telomeres as the ”culprit” when it comes to not only aging but various other diseases like Cancers as well,

    Are Telomeres the key to aging and cancer,???

    http://www.learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/chromosones/telomeres

    Another interesting link to the science which even goes so far as to identify the ”culprit” as ‘Ring 1b’ a particular protein in the extremely complex activity in cell division and renewal,

    http://www.bioscience technology.com

    The above story is only a day old, i suspect the link i provide,(as usual), wont work, the Google is: Misguided DNA-repair proteins caught in the act.

    It appears that Telomeres appear at the end of al DNA sequences,(strings), and are likened by scientists to the tabs at the end of shoelaces, they use the analogy that like a shoelace without the tab on the end a sequence of DNA will without telomeres attached simply fray with dire results,

    It appears that as cells in our bodies divide and replicate themselves the telomeres at the end of DNA sequences shorten with each division, as the telomeres shorten the risk of disease, cancers, diabetes rises,

    The Vegans will be pleased to note that ”life-style” change ‘might’ actually provoke the telomeres to lengthen or at least slow the rate of shortening, this apparently isn’t conclusive as the study group was small,

    Some people are born with a genetic propensity to have already shortened telomeres on their particular strands of DNA,

    Lifestyle changes may lengthen telomeres, a measure of cell aging,

    http://www.uscf.edu/…/lifestyle-changes-may-lengthen-telomeres-measure-cell-aging

    • phillip ure 9.1
      25 May 2014 at 10:52 am

      “..The Vegans will be pleased to note that ”life-style” change ‘might’ actually provoke the telomeres to lengthen or at least slow the rate of shortening..”

      ..that explains why all the ‘elderly’ vegans i know are all in such rude-good-health..(men and women..)

      ..a couple of years ago..a mid-seventy-something vegan (for over 30 yrs) and i..spent the large part of a day..

      ..splitting a winter-supply pile of wood/logs..(from felled trees..)..

      ..i was..and am still..amazed at the energy/strength/stamina he displayed on that day..

      ..and he/that is just one example of many i cd cite..

      ..so..our telemeres are growing..eh..?

      ..while those of the carnivores are shrinking..eh..?

      ..that’s cool..!

      ..that’ll do me for a takeaway..(vegan..of course..!..)

      ..(and as for the carnivores..wd u like bacon with that..?..

      ..yr telemeres need to be shrunk more..eh..?..)

      • bad12 9.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 11:02 am

        Thought you would be pleased Phillip, bad making your day good since, well since the day after making it bad,

        The discussion on ‘telomeres’ is also of relevance to the discussion points i have been making about,(especially) Lung Cancers in the past couple of days,

        Looked at negatively ie: 90% of Lung Cancers appear in those who have or do smoke leads to the obvious conclusion that smoking must then be the cause of lung Cancer,

        However, that negative masks the reality where 90% of smokers will never develop a Lung Cancer and perhaps the answer to why this is lies in the length of the individuals telomers…

        • phillip ure 9.1.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 11:05 am

          i must have missed that ‘bad day’..

          ..i had a very interesting day yesterday..

          ..that i can talk about soon..

          ..but not yet..

          • phillip ure 9.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 11:12 am

            and tho’ this is good ‘news’..(especially from the animals’ points of view..)..

            ..(and good to see it repeated..)

            ..i should note that at that best-little-news-website-in-the-world..that i run/do..

            ..i have been all over telemores..like a rash..

            ..and since 2008…

            ..eh..?

            http://whoar.co.nz/?s=telomeres

    • Clemgeopin 9.2
      25 May 2014 at 11:28 am

      The links don’t work for me.
      Instead, I found another one here which works!:
      http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/chromosomes/telomeres/

    • Chooky 9.3
      25 May 2014 at 12:04 pm

      peanut butter and red wine are supposed to be good for the telomeres…but here is some nutrition advice ( meat eater or vegetarian or vegan)

      http://takingeverybiteseriously.com/good-nutrition-the-fountain-of-youth-improve-your-telomeres/

  10. captain hook 10
    25 May 2014 at 1:30 pm

    listening to Willie Jackson on Arrow FM yesterday. H was intervieing a national party woman maori list mp and she stressed several time the need for radio stations. Why is it that tribesmen in the Hindu Kush can have a local station for their valley but there are none in New Zealand? is it because Kiwis are a) just too mean or b) just to fucking stupid!

  11. ianmac 11
    25 May 2014 at 1:59 pm

    Oh dear. Does he mean that he is not certain that National will romp in? Surely the clever clogs has convinced the voters of his integrity and clever handling of the economy?

    “Prime Minister John Key is predicting a “tight and tough” election with the Government up against a “left wing block” of parties…..

    Mr Key told more than 250 party faithful at a conference in Hamilton today National could not be lulled into a false sense of security by high polling numbers ahead of the September 20 general election.
    “He said National was not just up against the lower polling Labour but its left counterparts including the Greens, New Zealand First, and Mana.
    Mr Key said the party had to work hard to keep voters interested and the Government would begin making policy announcements soon.

    So now that the Budget is over what wonderful surprises will they offer or will they wait to get some excellent ideas from Labour/Greens? Wonder what the polls on TV tonight will show?

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11261487

  12. ianmac 12
    25 May 2014 at 2:05 pm

    Testing block quote as the instruction has other bits on it.
    <blockquote cite=””> or just
    <blockquote>

    The decisive point came on an aeroplane flight. She didn’t want her seatbelt on. I found myself trying to explain civil aviation regulations and Newton’s Second Law to a 3-year-old. I thought “this is nuts”. Sometimes, kids just have to do what Mum and Dad say, no cajoling, no explaining, just do it. Why? Cos we say so, that’s why.

    So says Rodney just discovering that children depend on appropriate boundaries.

  13. BM 13
    25 May 2014 at 3:04 pm

    I wonder how many Green mps will turn up?

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/25/guest-blog-not-in-my-name-why-you-should-be-at-the-candle-light-vigil-against-drone-strikes-outside-john-keys-house-tom-tonight/

    I assume this is a protest which has the full support of the green party?

    • ianmac 14.1
      25 May 2014 at 4:51 pm

      Yep Draco. And then the question of provocation arises. Violence is not OK but those on the receiving end can hit back but at their peril. Interesting clip.

      • greywarbler 14.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 5:26 pm

        That video clip – is it all staged? Based on demonstrating what can happen. It seems a bit of a mock up. It seems like the case of the journalist who won some reporting prize but was found to have cherry-picked a number of known cases into one and presented that as a factual truth. Bad things need to be discussed, the extent of wrong behaviour revealed. But if being dramatised for the public it needs to be presented as outdoor theatre, role playing, if it is. There is enough bullshit around without helping partisan agencies inventing stuff.

        • Draco T Bastard 14.1.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 6:05 pm

          But if being dramatised for the public it needs to be presented as outdoor theatre, role playing, if it is.

          Why would they do that if the whole purpose was to see how the general public would react?

          • felix 14.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 6:55 pm

            I think gw is wondering whether the reactions were part of the staged performance. I wondered that too.

            • greywarbler 14.1.1.1.1.1
              25 May 2014 at 8:03 pm

              Yes felix has understood. I don’t want to be manipulated or have others be so, about important things. I think harrassment and violence are important. I hate people crying Wolf.

              • weka …
                25 May 2014 at 8:56 pm

                Good point. I coudn’t tell if the filmed reactions were real or staged.

                The film was made by the ManKind Initiative. A quick google tells me they are the only NGO support for men who are victims of domestic violence. They believe that gender politics should be compeletely taken out of anti-violence work. They also appear to believe that misrepresenting statistics will further their cause (the 40% figure). Can’t see it myself, although it would be good to raise awareness of different kinds of violence and how they affect different people in various ways.

            • Draco T Bastard 14.1.1.1.1.2
              25 May 2014 at 9:07 pm

              Ah, yes, that would be a good question.

              They also appear to believe that misrepresenting statistics will further their cause (the 40% figure).
              Yeah weka, I was wondering about that as well.

  15. Draco T Bastard 15
    25 May 2014 at 4:56 pm

    Get ready for a whole new kind of climate change lawsuit

    Leaders of Chicago-area municipalities will have to explain in court why they didn’t do a better job of bracing for the types of floods that climate change is starting to bring down upon us. If they fail to make their case, then taxpayers could be on the hook for flood-related costs that would normally be borne by insurers.

    Which is a rather interesting action. The insurance companies took the premiums knowing how things stood in regards to possible flooding and now they’re trying to back out of paying out the costs and lump it all on local government. If they succeed then it will actually prevent the council from making the necessary repairs/upgrades due to an even larger shortfall of money.

    This really stinks of the insurance companies working to protect profits at the communities expense.

  16. Jenny 16
    25 May 2014 at 5:37 pm

    ….the company stated in a press release issued Friday morning. “It’s obvious, based on the findings of this neutral scientific research group, that humans needs to become more dependent on fossil fuels like oil and coal, not less. Because these so-called `green technologies’ are far more dangerous to the Earth than any hydrofracking operation or deep-water drilling station. – See more at: http://nationalreport.net/solar-panels-drain-suns-energy-experts-say/#sthash.sqWgL8a1.dpuf

    • Draco T Bastard 16.1
      25 May 2014 at 6:02 pm

      Wow, that is some BS. I suppose that it just shows the lengths that some people will go to to prop up oil industry profits.

      • Colonial Viper 16.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 6:13 pm

        Affordable fossil fuels are going away regardless of what the corporate PR says. The only question is – will we be ready for it and thus be able to maintain some semblance of a decent lifestyle and society, or is it going to be a total shit fight/sudden collapse situation.

  17. Chooky 17
    25 May 2014 at 6:08 pm

    Bugger the Polls! …on latest Reid Research Poll…by Martyn Bradbury

    “I hear tonights 3 News/Reid Research Poll will have National on 51% and will claim that 65% of Labour voters back National’s Budget. Before the Left collectively contemplate suicide a couple of things…..

    http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/05/25/tonights-3-newsreid-research-poll-will-have-national-at-51/

    • Disraeli Gladstone 17.1
      25 May 2014 at 6:27 pm

      Both Reid Research and Colmar had National up to 50-51%. While likely overestimating the support, it does suggest an underlying trend of rising support from a well received budget. But I think only the most partisan would have thought National’s ‘Do No Evil – Labour Lite’ Budget would have been poorly received.

      Winston is still looking like being King.

      • bad12 17.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 7:21 pm

        i would suggest that National will do no better than the 2011 election, the question then is where will the evaporating Maori Party %of the Party Vote go,

        The other question, will the Mana/Internet party alliance occur which may just produce a huge wild card into election 2014 especially if the Maori Party, as i expect, completely disappears from the Parliament,

        Another wild card being can the allegations of former NZFirster,(he who would have i suggest inherited the crown from Winston), Brendon Who do any damage to that Party…

        • Disraeli Gladstone 17.1.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 7:32 pm

          Yeah, I see National at around 45-47% at election time.

          On the Maori Party vote, I wouldn’t quite discount them yet. Labour’s complete meltdown in Tamaki Makaurau might just give them a lifeline (I think Annette Skyes will beat Flavell) so they might be able to creep in with at least one seat, maybe two.

          I’m still of the opinion that Mana/Internet (if it happens) won’t win any more than 2 seats.

          NZ First is going to be the key here. If they get 4.5% that might actually make National’s job a lot easier of building a majority with Dunne and Seymour as coattails to cross the line. But unless Horan’s allegations take hold, it seems likely they’ll cross the line and be the balance of power.

          • bad12 17.1.1.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 8:14 pm

            Yes Tamaki-Makarau now has become a marginal seat in my opinion, there’s even a slight ell chance that the Green Parties Marama Davidson could squeak in there with a division of the vote among the other Parties,

            i still believe that Labour are the most likely to take the seat,but hardly a certainty,

            50/50 in Waiariki giving Flavell the haere ra,

            If the alliance goes ahead, i am picking the ‘novelty’ of the Mana/Internet alliance along with some savvy advertising will give such an alliance 3–4% of the party vote which will still rely upon Hone or Annette winning either Te Tai Tokerau and/or Waiariki,

            The last Roy Morgan polled Mana up at 1% so talk of the alliance seems to have boosted their support and polled Internet at 1.5%, i would suggest excellent numbers in a poll where the Labour and Green %’s also rose showing that thus far Mana/Internet are not cannibalizing their vote from those parties,

            Yes what will NZFirst do, even describing that party is problematic, a centrist party with definitely defined left and right wings along with a large dash of red-neckism perhaps???,

            Lolz, i was disappointed in Brendon Who’s insipid attack on Winston and the Party last week, but, every little bit helps and National shows how much they know they must have Winston and NZFirst back in the next Parliamet to have a hope in hell of forming a Government, by taking the vows of silence as Brendon Who attacked the integrity of His former mentor,

            Recently Winston has gone strangely silent about the Greens, either having resiled from His former position on that Party or holding His counsel which might be a slight indicator of the chances of a change of Government…

  18. Naki man 18
    25 May 2014 at 6:23 pm

    17 weeks to go. National 68 seats, labour 48 seats, I think Cunliffe might even vote National. Cunliffe single figures for preferred prime minister.

    • mickysavage 18.1
      25 May 2014 at 6:28 pm

      Post budget poll bounce Naki man. Nothing to get too excited about.

      • big bruv 18.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 6:33 pm

        Are you not getting sick of spinning the same rubbish Micky?

        It is clear that the public do not want Labour and they want its leader even less. Winston at less than 5% is not good news for your lot either.

        Happy days!

      • BM 18.1.2
        25 May 2014 at 6:35 pm

        So, what do you thinks going to sink National.?

        Everything’s looking pretty good at the moment, has Labour got some fantastic new policies that are going to swing the voters towards the left camp?

        • Kiwiri 18.1.2.1
          25 May 2014 at 6:43 pm

          “has Labour got some fantastic policies that are going to swing the voters towards the left camp”

          how about the proposed policy to push out the retirement age?

          that policy is a winner
          /sarc

          • BM 18.1.2.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 6:46 pm

            Don’t forget the Capital gains tax, that’s going to have the voters flocking across the political divide in the 100,000’s

            No wonder mickysavage is still so confident.

        • mickysavage 18.1.2.2
          25 May 2014 at 6:45 pm

          I expect the polls are overstating the gap by between 4 and 6 %, that National’s support will decline and that it is likely Peters will hold the balance of power after the election. Even last time in a campaign which was said to be one sided the margin of success was tiny.

          • BM 18.1.2.2.1
            25 May 2014 at 6:50 pm

            As I replied to bad12 in another thread, if it wasn’t for that tea tape bollocks and the rena running aground National would have got an out right at the last election.

            I’d be surprised if the same situation rears it’s head this time around.

            • bad12 18.1.2.2.1.1
              25 May 2014 at 7:03 pm

              Your crystal ball works in reverse too BM,???, the electorate still dining out on tax cuts got Slippery the PM and National a second term,

              That sugar rush has worn off,(which is why Slippery even befor the ink had dried on the current budget thought up and released to the media a brand new ”tax cuts” policy which even His Finance Minister obviously knew nothing about),

              It’s called desperation BM…

              • BM …
                25 May 2014 at 7:10 pm

                Tax cuts should be the priority of all governments

                Lets the people decide what they want to do with their own money, not some ivory tower fuck knuckle who thinks they’ve got all the answers.

          • Disraeli Gladstone 18.1.2.2.2
            25 May 2014 at 7:21 pm

            I think 6% is being overly optimistic. I suspect National’s support is overstated by around 3-4%. In 2011, the last two Colmar and Reid polls were out by around 3-4%. The polls that had National at 53-54% were pre-cupofteagate which I think people tend to forget. If anything, the polls did actually reflect a lessening of support from National after that.

            So 3-4% overstated support seems likely using past data. Suggesting 6% is just having a bit of a punt.

          • Matthew Hooton 18.1.2.2.3
            25 May 2014 at 7:55 pm

            Yes, that is what I think too. Still too close to call, with Peters getting to make the call.

            • mickysavage 18.1.2.2.3.1
              25 May 2014 at 8:09 pm

              Thanks Matthew. You realise you are destroying my lefty credibility by agreeing with me 😀

        • ffloyd 18.1.2.3
          25 May 2014 at 6:51 pm

          Maybe they could pinch a couple of natz. Oh, except they have none. The natz had to pinch Labour’s policies to make their budget work. They have nothing else. Btw, key is looking ancient. Cheating, lying deceiving etc. taking it’s toll.

        • ianmac 18.1.2.4
          25 May 2014 at 6:54 pm

          Won’t need fantastic policies. Just the credible ones needed that resonate with NZ workers and Labour/Green will produce them Meanwhile the Nats will scramble to try and cover those policies which will look a bit desperate. It is probable that if an election was held today National simply wouldn’t win.

        • bad12 18.1.2.5
          25 May 2014 at 7:29 pm

          Lolz, the over confidence that is being exhibited here tonight by the brigade of ‘wing-nuts’ who all but disappeared following the last Roy Morgan Poll is what will sink National,

          The fact that the lot of you post the last Roy Morgan tucked tail and slithered off someplace to hide tells me that you over confidence is wafer thin just as the current Governments ability to pass Legislation through the current Parliament is,

          Delusional is the best expletive i can apply to those who think that this current motley crew will have the numbers in the next Parliament to ‘Govern alone’ without risking a spanking from the mods,

          Fucks sake the pathetic current National Government cannot even gather the number to pass Legislation in the House to amend the Resource Management Act, lameduck and hamstrung spring to mind when i think of Slippery the PM’s current leadership…

      • Anne 18.1.3
        25 May 2014 at 6:42 pm

        Don’t the two land-line pollsters, Colmar Brunton and Reid Research do their polling on a monthly basis in election year? On that basis, I expected them to appear last week-end. Instead they delay it one week so that the poll included the election year “budget bounce”? No doubt the fan boys and girls at TV1 and TV3 assume they will be duly rewarded for their loyalty to King John II.

        • Tamati 18.1.3.1
          25 May 2014 at 6:52 pm

          They do polls when TV3 and TV1 pay them to do polls. Much more logical to do them after the budget.

          • Anne 18.1.3.1.1
            25 May 2014 at 7:05 pm

            Much more logical to do a poll after a Nat. govt. election year budget, so that the numbers come down on the ‘right’ side of the political ledger.

            • newsense 18.1.3.1.1.1
              26 May 2014 at 12:21 am

              it did seem as if there were no polls which came out after a raft of Nat corruption scandals and some solid policy announcements from Labour

  19. Hutty 19
    25 May 2014 at 6:45 pm

    Three more years! Three more years! Three more years!

    • bad12 19.1
      25 May 2014 at 6:56 pm

      Laughable, we are back to the future with ”National can govern alone with these numbers” polls which is the same old same old as occurred from the media last election,

      Obvious the ‘wing-nuts’ needed ‘watering’ as their numbers here at the Standard have been seriously wilting after the last Roy Morgan,(down to one blossom a day for the past couple of weeks),

      National at the moment cannot proceed in the Parliament with their idea of Resource heaven as they cannot muster enough votes to amend the present Legislation, SO, the most minor of swings that results in the loss of two votes from anywhere in the numbers that make up National’s present coalition is likely to turf National onto the opposition benches…

      • karol 19.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 7:02 pm

        Interesting how Gower and the anchor talk up the 3 News poll as if it was totally accurate and the only one ever done – like it’s THE authority on what will happen come election time.

        Interesting comment from Matthew Hooton on a Daily blog thread.

        ACT is currently at 2.8% on iPredict: see https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=VOTE.2014.ACT

        The 73% probability that there will be a National PM after the election should be compared with the 91% probability of a National PM at the comparable stage before the last election.

        • bad12 19.1.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 7:08 pm

          I Predict is laughable, wee Matty Hooton says that it is now being run by Victoria University which has me lamenting education standards at that particular institution,

          Have a look at the % of the Party vote that they allocate to the Internet Party next time you are over that way,

          i have a snigger at the ‘work’ of these future geniuses every time i visit…

  20. McGrath 20
    25 May 2014 at 6:59 pm

    It’s looking like a 3rd term for National, short of JK being caught on camera eating children…

    Labour needs to ditch pushing the retirement age to 67. Why is a socialist party pushing people to work longer? The CGT is not a winner either. All people hear is ‘tax’. Expect the Nats to ram that down people’s throats close to election

    • Disraeli Gladstone 20.1
      25 May 2014 at 7:14 pm

      Labour should pledge to use the CGT’s revenue to lower GST or low-income tax rates (or establish a threshold of not paying tax on the first $10,000 or something).

      It means New Zealand can finally have a CGT which should take a bit of the heat out of the property market, broaden investment options and put more money in the back pocket of those most struggling.

    • Instauration 20.2
      25 May 2014 at 7:32 pm

      “The CGT is not a winner either. All people hear is ‘tax’”
      Yeah – but “Tax” preceeded by the word “Greed” is an easy sell.

  21. tsmithfield 21
    25 May 2014 at 7:07 pm

    I think Labour need to hammer harder at the beltway issues. Then they will get some traction. 🙂

  22. Anne 22
    25 May 2014 at 7:09 pm

    Labour needs to ditch pushing the retirement age to 67.

    I agree with you on that point.

  23. Minty 23
    25 May 2014 at 7:11 pm

    Wow what a rubbish poll on TV3 just shows they only poll from Epsom, polls are not important it’s the election that counts, hopefully Russell Norman steps up he is the only hope. The issue is cunliffe he is disliked by the general public.

  24. thechangeling 24
    25 May 2014 at 7:27 pm

    The latest Roy Morgan for the period May 5-18 paints a different picture with the left block still ahead although it too has taken a hit: http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/new-zealand/voting-intention-summary

    • karol 24.1
      25 May 2014 at 7:31 pm

      That was just 3 days ago. Yet Gower was so certain the TV3 poll was THE definitive one.

    • Disraeli Gladstone 24.2
      25 May 2014 at 7:34 pm

      Umm… the left block wasn’t ahead in the last Roy Morgan poll.

      National – 45.5%
      Labour/Green – 44%

      • thechangeling 24.2.1
        25 May 2014 at 10:01 pm

        Left block: Labour 30.5+ Greens 13.5+ Mana 1+ Internet .5+ NZF 6 = 51.5
        Right block: National 45.5+ Maori 1+ Act 1+ Cons 1+ United Future .5= 49
        Other parties= .5.
        Result: A Left or Right wing coalition is in Government depending on Winston Peters.

        • Disraeli Gladstone 24.2.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 11:17 pm

          Playing hard and fast with the definition of “left block” by including NZ First within it. I think everyone agrees Winston could go either way and support left or right. But I wouldn’t call him “left-wing” myself. He’s radical centre. Left and right policies.

    • bad12 24.3
      25 May 2014 at 7:35 pm

      Yep, when is the next Roy Morgan out, that will probably send the ‘wing-nuts’ scurrying back under their beds in fear…

      • cricklewood 24.3.1
        25 May 2014 at 7:56 pm

        I dont think the polls will change much, they have been pretty stable for a while now in terms of Nats vs the left. The emergence of the Greens / Mana have taken a fair amount of the left vote from labour and means that their natural level of support will max out at 35ish as long as the greens are performing. If you are a righty you really only have one option as to where you put your vote.
        The danger will be that joe public will fall for the Labours only 30 nats on 50 polling narrative and fall into the no point voting trap … that could significantly hollow out the labour vote on the day.

        • Kiwiri 24.3.1.1
          25 May 2014 at 8:03 pm

          Pushing up the age for super will get many voters really energised and very enthusiastic to come out and cast their vote for Labour.
          /sarc

      • amirite 24.3.2
        26 May 2014 at 7:59 am

        bad12 – nah, they will conveniently ignore it by saying it’s not accurate, when it has shown to be closer to the election results than other polls.

  25. fisiani 25
    25 May 2014 at 8:06 pm

    30% + 11% = 41%. The Cunliffe is truly awesome. The assumptions here that National can only go down are truly heroic. The phone is off the hook. September 20th could signal the natural party of government gaining another record vote.

    • bad12 25.1
      25 May 2014 at 8:26 pm

      Yes i too can see a record being set, National the biggest party of opposition ever under the MMP regime…

  26. lilman 26
    25 May 2014 at 8:16 pm

    Very poor numbers in polls,sorry buts its not acceptable

  27. fisiani 27
    25 May 2014 at 8:27 pm

    29.5% + 10.5% = 40% just imagine 24.5%+ 8%.

    • felix 27.1
      25 May 2014 at 8:43 pm

      I find your lack of ambition disturbing.

      If you’re going to pull numbers out of your arse, why not 15% and 3%?

      • fisiani 27.1.1
        25 May 2014 at 10:06 pm

        Why not 15% and 3%? Cos that would just be silly. Not even The Cunliffe could be that bad.

  28. Clemgeopin 28
    25 May 2014 at 10:54 pm

    MY PREDICTION OF ELECTION RESULT BASED ON POLLS SO FAR:

    There are still four months to the election. A lot can change in that time. The budget euphoria has helped National here. But I don’t think this excitement will last, because the other parties are yet to announce their major policies in the next couple of months.

    Based on the recent four polls and from past experience of the disparity between the per-election polls and the actual election results, here is my estimate/calculation/prediction/gut feeling of the probable party vote for various parties, rounded to whole numbers:

    NATIONAL………..=42%
    LABOUR…………..=32%
    GREENS…………..=12%
    NZ FIRST…………..=7%
    CONSER…………..=2%
    INTRNET……………=2%
    MAORI……………….=1%
    MANA………………..=1%
    ACT…………………..=0%
    UF…………………….=0%
    Others(Round)…..=1%

    • thechangeling 28.1
      25 May 2014 at 11:14 pm

      If you’re right, and I believe you are, National really is in serious trouble. Things are going to get desperately dirty on the back of this I predict, also.

    • Disraeli Gladstone 28.2
      25 May 2014 at 11:26 pm

      Interestingly, in the space of a month, National has risen 6% in your prediction! Labour has shed 4%. Internet/Mana are down 2%.

      These are clearly very accurate and well-informed predictions and absolutely nothing to do with plucking numbers out of thin air. Though, this guess is at least a little better than the last.

      http://thestandard.org.nz/from-slum-house-to-mega-man-mana-tip-connections/#comment-797694

      • Clemgeopin 28.2.1
        25 May 2014 at 11:37 pm

        There have been at least 4 polls since my last prediction.

      • Clemgeopin 28.2.2
        26 May 2014 at 9:15 am

        Disraeli Gladstone, do you have a prediction for party votes?

        • Disraeli Gladstone 28.2.2.1
          26 May 2014 at 5:46 pm

          Not really. We don’t know what might happen between now and election day. If you’re pointing a gun at my head to make a guess (and that’s all it really is) then I’d say something like:

          National – 44-47%
          Labour – 30-32%
          Greens – 10-13%
          Winston First – 4-6%

          The Tories might grab 2%. Outside of that, I don’t think any other minor party will hit above 2%.

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