Open mike 27/10/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 27th, 2024 - 28 comments
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28 comments on “Open mike 27/10/2024 ”

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  1. Stephen D 1
    27 October 2024 at 8:42 am

    Hope.

    https://thinkeratthegates.substack.com/p/use-logic-not-polls-to-expect-a-decisive

    “In this article I’ll be ignoring polls and election forecasts, which serve very little purpose for the average person. If the polls were highly decisive, like showing a double-digit lead for a candidate, then I’d consider them. But anything less than that is just showing what we already know, which is that either candidate can possibly win. And since the forecasts are just based on the polls, peppered with the authors’ subjectively determined adjustments and manipulations, they are not useful in any way to anyone that already pays general attention to the news.”

  2. tsmithfield 2
    27 October 2024 at 8:47 am

    I am part way through watching a fascinating Netflix series "What's Next" hosted by Bill Gates.

    The episode on climate change is very interesting. My take away is that feasible technological replacements for existing methods run into the problem of mass adoption. As the episode points out, a feasible method for 0-low carbon production of cement runs into the problem that many developing countries that are dependent on current methods simply cannot afford to transition in the short term.

    From that episode it appears to me that the most viable technological solution is carbon capture technology that pumps captured C02 underground and turns it into rock (I assume limestone). They profiled a working geothermal-powered plant in Iceland that is already functioning in this process. I think they are capturing around 100000 tons a year, which is a minute fraction of total emissions. But, it seems to me that this type of solution should be easily scalable given the will of governments to invest. Hopefully to remove in the billions of tons of C02 pa. That is, because it is new technology that doesn't seek to replace existing technology. So, should be achievable much more quickly.

    Realistically, I simply don't think human behaviour or reliance on current methods is going to change quickly enough otherwise. And this type of solution would at least buy us more time to make fundamental changes.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 2.1
      27 October 2024 at 12:01 pm

      I simply don't think human behaviour or reliance on current methods is going to change quickly enough…

      Reckon you're on the money there tsmithfield – if only we could buy time eh.

      Three great forces rule the world: stupidity, fear and greed. – Einstein

      I think they are capturing around 100000 tons a year, which is a minute fraction of total emissions.

      The plant is designed for a nameplate capacity of up to 36,000 tons per year. The actual net removal will be lower…
      https://climeworks.com/plant-mammoth

      Experts also highlight social and ecological limits for carbon dioxide removal, such as the land area required. For example, the combined land requirements of removal plans as per the global Nationally Determined Contributions in 2023 amounted to 1.2 billion hectares, which is equal to the combined size of global croplands.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal#Critique_and_risks

      If "carbon capture technology" is indeed "the most viable technological solution" to global warming, then what percentage of GDP might our CoC govt be willing to invest in local deployment, bearing in mind the Nat's history of trenchant opposition to taxing greenhouse gas emissions?

      Our CoC govt doesn't strike me as a fast-follower, let alone a leader in GHG mitigation initiatives – how about you?

      "It's a case of slower to go faster" – Luxon


      Farmers Fart Tax Protest At Parliament, 4 Sept 2003
      https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0309/S00040.htm

    • lprent 2.2
      27 October 2024 at 5:37 pm

      They profiled a working geothermal-powered plant in Iceland that is already functioning in this process. I think they are capturing around 100000 tons a year, which is a minute fraction of total emissions. But, it seems to me that this type of solution should be easily scalable given the will of governments to invest.

      sigh There are multiple problems with this general process that are obvious to any one with a smidgen of geology. The company is Carbfix, and they are touting a solution that is not particularly scalable – in several different time frames both geological and human. It is also inherently not scalable economically because of the paucity of sites that have the natural advantages of a geothermal plant in Iceland.

      There is a reason why it is being done in a geothermal power plant and even in that particular plant. As a geothermal plant it inherently has hot mineral saturated water. That means that they have an ideal medium to super saturate a liquid with CO2 extracted from air. They have hot basaltic rock to inject into.

      That is a rock type with large amounts of iron and other metallic atoms. It is also excellent at absorbing and binding both oxygen and carbon and carbonated water. It is also cool enough that it isn't going to come out a few decades or centuries later and blow off the reconstituted CO2.

      The problem is that it doesn't work for most geothermal plants because they don't have the hot basaltic rock to inject it into. Everywhere that doesn't have basaltic based geothermal (NZ for instance) which is mostly based on rhyolitic base rock in the central NI. Not suitable for fixing CO2 for multiple reasons, mostly because it would be immediately be back to the surface (in geological terms).

      The geothermal plant in the episode is situated on an island that is made up of warm and hot basalt close to the surface – Iceland. In geological terms the island is part of the mid-Atlantic ridge. That is a region where the American continents and the Eurasian continents are tearing away from each other and in the process creating new seafloor along a very active seafloor studded with micro volcanoes and geothermal vents – under kilometres of seawater.

      These are relatively rare locations (land above a Continental drift separation zone). The problem is that hot to warm basalt is something that is mostly accessible on seafloors – specifically where there is plate separation. This means that it is where continental drift is currently or has recently been tearing continents apart. The only major separation sone in the middle of a continent that I am aware of is the Great Rift Valley in Norther Africa.

      Or you get plume magma – where there is a plume of hot basalt coming through the mantle and upwards, like the Hawaiian island chain and Aleutian island chain, each formed from plume punching through a drifting seafloor. Not as rare

      To make the Carbfix process work, you have to have active geothermal on close to the surface hot basalt (less than 10 kilometres) so you get the heat and optionally the geothermal fluid for free and have relatively cool non fluid basalt rock (I'd guess less than about 300C) rock to inject into.

      The second problem is that all of these locations are temporary in geological or even human history time frames. They are hot for a reason. Typically there is a plume or pool of liquid basalt below them which will well up and cause volcanoes. On the way through and often across wide areas, they will well up and blow volcanoes through overlying cooler rock.

      They will blow gases off, like CO2 mineralised into their hot rock. Basalt volcanism blows off carbon dioxide, suphuric oxides, and all manner of other gases at an enormous rate. Two of the 5 known mass extinctions were probably triggered by respectively the Siberian Traps and the Deccan Traps events.

      Doing it using seawater or surface water just adds volatiles to warm areas with hot high temperature magma underneath it is completely stupid. That is most likely to induce the formation of volcanic fields and release of volatile gases. This is one of the techniques that is postulated as being a main method to terraform Mars.

      If you look at their map of 'feasible' sites is just a map of hot basalt magma areas.

      Adding previously released volatile gases from geologically inactive zones like coal, oil and natural gas deposits (or extra water) and then re-injecting them to active basaltic areas is complete stupidity in geological terms. They will just come up again in relatively short time scales. Probably quite catastrophically to the ecosystem – this is how we get mass-extinction events naturally. I am pretty sure that a couple of centuries of using this kind of technique could easily do achieve it in a few thousand years unnaturally.

      I won't even mention just how uneconomic this would be to scale up. Suffice it to say, that moving to alternatives to burning fossil fuels would cost less than a few percent of the cost of a project of this scale. On a shorter time scale, dropping the farming of ruminants and dropping the release of short-term methane would be faster and way way cheaper.

  3. joe90 3
    27 October 2024 at 11:49 am

    Alan Moore the on the toxic fandom that's ushered in Trump and fascism.

    .

    ‘Fandom has toxified the world’: Watchmen author Alan Moore on superheroes, Comicsgate and Trump

    Enthusiasm can be a productive force for good, but our culture has rapidly become a fan-based landscape that the rest of us are merely living in

    […]

    There are, of course, entirely benign fandoms, networks of cooperative individuals who quite like the same thing, can chat with others sharing the same pastime and, importantly, provide support for one another in difficult times. These healthy subcultures, however, are less likely to impact on society in the same way that the more strident and presumptuous fandoms have managed. Unnervingly rapidly, our culture has become a fan-based landscape that the rest of us are merely living in. Our entertainments may be cancelled prematurely through an adverse fan reaction, and we may endure largely misogynist crusades such as Gamergate or Comicsgate from those who think “gate” means “conspiracy”, and that Nixon’s disgrace was predicated on a plot involving water, but this is hardly the full extent to which fan attitudes have toxified the world surrounding us, most obviously in our politics.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/oct/26/fandom-has-toxified-the-world-watchmen-author-alan-moore-on-superheroes-comicsgate-and-trump

    • AB 3.1
      27 October 2024 at 12:40 pm

      There are, of course, entirely benign fandoms, networks of cooperative individuals who quite like the same thing, can chat with others sharing the same pastime and, importantly, provide support for one another in difficult times.

      I don't think that's a "fandom" – it's a community. Fandom is the toxic offshoot of celebrity, celebrity is the toxic offshoot of wealth, wealth is the toxic offshoot of the cult of the self, the cult of the self is the toxic offshoot of the Protestant/Capitalist individual standing alone before God/The Market.

  4. joe90 4
    27 October 2024 at 12:03 pm

    So tankies on the interwebs aren’t the voice of Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims?

    //

    “Extreme Danger”: Harris Earns a Stunning Endorsement Over Trump

    Kamala Harris has earned an eleventh-hour show of support from Palestinian, Arab, and Muslim community leaders.

    More than 100 Arizona Palestinian, Arab, Muslim, and progressive Democrats and community leaders have signed a letter making the case for those reluctant to support Kamala Harris against Donald Trump.

    “We know that many in our communities are resistant to vote for Kamala Harris because of the Biden administration’s complicity in the genocide,” the letter, published Thursday night, reads.

    […]

    The letter includes several reasons why the coalition believes Trump would be far worse for Palestinians, Arabs, Muslims, and all those organizing for Palestinians. The writers cite Trump’s bloodthirsty remark last week about how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should “go further” in Gaza, while criticizing President Joe Biden for “holding him back.” At the time, Trump hailed Netanyahu for doing a “good job” and voiced his support for expanding military operations into Lebanon, where Israel has killed at least 1,800 people in the past five weeks alone.

    The letter also notes Trump’s ties to Zionist Republican megadonor Miriam Adelson, who is pushing for Trump to allow Israel to illegally annex the West Bank. Israel has killed 165 children in the occupied West Bank in the last year.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/187537/kamala-harris-donald-trump-stunning-endorsement

  5. Mike the Lefty 5
    27 October 2024 at 12:14 pm

    Yesterday, Paul Goldsmith did the usual National populist posturing thing by jumping on the "greater punishment needed…." bandwagon highlighted by the recent murder of a woman on an Auckland bus.

    But Mr Goldsmith did not explain how tougher punishment on public transport, which he also talked about a month earlier after assaults on Auckland bus drivers, would stop some nutter from getting on a bus and stabbing someone.

    Fact is it wouldn't. You stop crime by having a well-manned, fully staffed, fully equipped police force and crime investigation units. National proved their own point when they upped the central Auckland police force and crime rate dropped significantly.

    Now, I should explain that I work in public transport, although not in Auckland, so perhaps I should be pleased that the government SEEMS to be doing something. But just upping the punishment for one grade of crime is pretty pointless. Does that make assaults on people in public transport more important than assaults on nurses, ambulance workers, taxi drivers, the elderly, home owners, etc.? Every time there is such an assault that makes the national news the government tries to look tough and makes another promise of greater punishment in a knee jerk reaction and asks their sycophants on Newstalk ZB to talk it up for a couple of weeks. Then nothing happens, of course.

    National won't do the one thing that WILL prevent crime, because simply it is too expensive for them, they don't want to pay it. Instead they will engage in populist political posturing and claim they are being tough on criminals and save their pennies.

    If I was assaulted in my line of duty I would not want the CoC to make political capital out of my case and if any of them visited me in hospital I would tell them to f… off and I will put a clause in my will asking my daughter to tell them to f… off if I don't survive the assault.

    http://www.rnz.co.nz/news/idonz/528982/government-announces-tougher-measures-to-improve-public-safety

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/government-to-introduce-tougher-sentences-for-offences-against-public-transport-workers

    • Belladonna 5.1
      27 October 2024 at 3:51 pm

      The point which seems relevant, here, is that the named offender was convicted earlier this year for other violent offenses. Due to the ridiculously lengthy wait times for trials, he was released virtually immediately (due to time served on remand)

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/onehunga-bus-stabbing-kael-leona-convicted-and-sentenced-earlier-this-year-for-threatening-to-kill/CWNRFLRSDRBCPDQEYAMGLF7DJY/

      The 'release conditions' have not be detailed – but clearly seem not to have been monitored effectively.

      A court system which was more efficient (i.e. not taking years for a case to come to trial), would have either kept him out of the community (in a custodial sentence); or mandated some form of effective supervision or treatment. My understanding is that 'prisoners' on remand are not eligible for any of the prison-based rehab courses – since they're not officially prisoners.

      So, no, police or security guards on buses aren't going to prevent this kind of violent crime (and the other bus-based violence against passengers that we've seen recently in Auckland). They can't be everywhere all the time.

      Nor will increasing sentences for violence against public workers (it's just as awful for a random member of the public or the offender's family to be assaulted – as it is for an ambo, or bus driver)

      But, yes, doing something about the outrageous amount of time it takes for 'justice' to occur – is something which would be well worth doing.

      • Visubversa 5.1.1
        28 October 2024 at 10:41 am

        What needs to be done is to take these violent and disturbed men seriously and comprehend the danger to the community that they represent – especially to women.

        Any form of "domestic violence" or random stranger violence should be a major red flag .

  6. SPC 6
    27 October 2024 at 12:35 pm

    Donald Trump uses the term enemy within (HUAC/McCarthyism+) to describe Democratic Party people in Congress on Capitol Hill.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/donald-trump-says-domestic-foes-worse-than-kim-jong-un-during-meandering-joe-rogan-interview/5Q63DID62BET5N4H3644QQAU2Q/

  7. Binders full of women 7
    27 October 2024 at 1:10 pm

    Michigan— USA's state with most Arabs has seen a majority of Palestinians supporting Trump. As the activist teacher says… "all of the Middle East is conservative" and a once Dem Mayor is now Rep cos of Pride Flag issues. They see Trump as being able to end Mid-East war PDQ. If Harris loses one of the Blue Wall she will need NC to counter it.

    • joe90 7.1
      27 October 2024 at 1:20 pm

      USA's state with most Arabs has seen a majority of Palestinians supporting Trump.

      Can they match Adelson's offer?

      Annexing the West Bank (which is controlled by the Palestinian Authority as opposed to Hamas-controlled Gaza) is Adelson's ultimate goal, according to Slyomovics' article. He reported that during a meeting with Adelson, Trump made a "tactical error" of saying Israel has "got to get to peace," and "finish up" its war with Hamas. Adelson hoped to get Trump on board with the far more radical plan of backing an Israeli takeover of the West Bank.

      […]

      While radical, Adelson's proposal may still become a plank of Trump's platform given the benefit of her largesse. On May 30, Adelson announced that her Preserve America super PAC would spend $100 million to elect Trump to a second term.

      https://www.nationalmemo.com/trump-israel

  8. tWig 8
    27 October 2024 at 3:44 pm

    Steve Braunias giving insight into the government's hiring process.

  9. adam 9
    27 October 2024 at 5:21 pm

    Dear labour,

    You want my party vote, you got it if you tell me you will smash the eugenics laws this collection of muppets are running with. You will also have it if you work with the labour party across the ditch, economics wise. I'd even give you money to have the right of the labour party front up and make public their faction. Always like the left right factions facing up within labour. Hell any day of the week I'd work with a right faction labour MP if they front up about it.

    Just asking, you ant getting my electorate vote My MP is too Bloody Good.

    https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/members-of-parliament/kapa-kingi-mariameno/

    • roblogic 9.1
      27 October 2024 at 6:00 pm

      I was in Epsom (Seymour's patch) now I'm in Pakuranga (Simeon Brown's turf). Shoot me now

    • Bearded Git 9.2
      27 October 2024 at 7:05 pm

      Adam-It should be screamingly obvious that you shouldn't vote for this lot next time.

      If you haven't worked it out yet that this needs to be a one-term government, you are a lost cause.

      • adam 9.2.1
        27 October 2024 at 8:54 pm

        Yawn – Do you bend over to smell your own farts Bearded Git?

        Unlike some people I did the number crunching to get over hang, so I party voted Te Pāti Māori.

        My comment – if you actually put your brain into gear was about the lack of voice from labour. Specifically, about what this government is doing to DISABLED and Māori . And the fact no one knows who is left and who is right in the labour party – Since 1989 Aussie labour party has formalised those factions – helps voters.

        Because you might need some brain food. Try this.

        • Bearded Git 9.2.1.1
          28 October 2024 at 7:38 am

          If you voted for TPM in a constituency and party voted Labour or Green, that makes sense.

          If you party and constituency voted TPM that makes no sense because your party vote was wasted.

          For what its worth, I think Hipkins has to go, because if he stays as leader in 2026 Luxon and Seymour will just keep screaming “here’s the man who halved Labour’s vote” and this will resonate with the electorate.

          • adam 9.2.1.1.1
            28 October 2024 at 9:12 pm

            If you party and constituency voted TPM that makes no sense because your party vote was wasted.

            Do you even understand how MMP works? How overhang works?

            Is labour doing enough to fight the insane eugenics from this government?

            Could labour do themselves a favour and be open about their two main factions? I say yes, it would help a lot.

  10. Anne 10
    27 October 2024 at 7:08 pm

    Ginny Anderson has got to go. She is politically inept. Regardless of what one may think of the monarchy, for a senior NZ politician to mock King Charles in such a way is pathetic. Especially given the man is fighting cancer:

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/labour-mp-ginny-andersen-reshares-king-charles-christopher-luxon-quip-on-instagram/JJODWEBI6RABFF65SXSTU3GZLE/

  11. joe90 11
    27 October 2024 at 7:26 pm

    Or eat them.

    .

    Taxing billionaires out of existence must become a mainstream idea.

    One of the privileges of great wealth is the ability to pretend that spending it amounts to a job. For the pharma executives Calvin and Orsula Knowlton, that spare job was the planning and construction of a $27 million New Jersey mansion, complete with an indoor pub and an elevator to the his-and-hers gym and an underground tunnel leading to the planned auto gallery. The religious couple also installed a chapel in the mansion, a home they did not often spend time in, because they had others. How they squared their allegiance to the Bible with their superfluous $27 million palace was not discussed.

    For Daren Metropoulos, the 41-year-old son of a private equity titan, the fake job has been a decade spent buying up $326 million of luxury homes, which can be referred to as “assembling a real estate portfolio.” Metropoulos, who has worked only for companies that his dad owns, has bought up the Playboy Mansion and Mandarin Oriental condos in New York and a Martha’s Vineyard compound and waterfront homes in Hawaii and Miami Beach. Most recently, he paid $148 million cash for a Palm Beach estate. These “all will be used as personal residences,” the Wall Street Journal notes. The wealth that Metropoulos will earn on his vast portfolio of mansions is simply proof that in America, hard work pays off.

    […]

    What does someone who is worth $30 billion lose if you take $29 billion from them? They can still own multiple mansions and a private jet and buy any material thing they want and leave a fortune behind when they die that will take care of their family for generations. As a practical matter of day to day life, they lose nothing. All they really lose is the ability to unduly influence the rest of us. They lose (some of) their ability to act like gods. They are less able to buy governments and exert their will regardless of laws and change cities to suit their whims and generally make all of the other humans on earth into bit players in a play that they write every day entitled “My Own Personal Preferences.”

    https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/confiscate-their-money