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6:00 am, September 28th, 2021 - 206 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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9.50 mins long, mary. Hope you like the soundtrack.
All I had to video my stream denizens with initially was 2 small 3G mobiles, with only 2 megapixel cameras. This meant I had to get up really close to the creatures I’ve filmed – within a foot or two. But being THAT close to my subjects makes it feel very rewarding that, over time, they’ve learned to accept my presence & relax & just behave very normally around me.
I didn’t realise that eels are fish. I originally thought they were a separate biological family of aquatic life. But they ARE fish, just with a highly specialised body shape, perfectly suited to navigating rivers, streams & smaller waterways.
What’s captivated me in this video (eventually 3 NZ Native Longfin eels turned up together) is that it shows how much eels have achieved mastery of their environment.
They have an elegant & graceful way of undulating thru te wai, forwards, backwards, circling, doing head-over-tail loops, all the while sniffing, & exploring the stream bed. Elivira Longfin even stands on her tail in deep water at my Eel Spot, like a dolfin, to get her head out of the water when I feed her.
But they are also capable of instantly shifting to Great White Shark-like bursts of raw speed & strength. I call them my river sharks.
The fluffy little yellow & black duckling attrition rate in my stream is about 95%. I’ve seen Elvira suddenly roar up out of the depths right into the middle of a gaggle of ducklings swimming along upstream with their mum. She completely missed getting any that time, but I suspect the bigger eels like Ella & Elvira (four-footers) do take at least some of the baby waterbirds.
Fantastic stuff Gezza! Being able to connect with nature regularly like that is a such a joy.
Thank you, weka. Much appreciated.
The stream's just over my fence. I go thru my gate and climb 20 feet down the periwinkle-covered stream bank, and, even in my city suburb it's private & peaceful down there.
The birdlife here is wonderful too. As I type, I have a male tui singing its heart out in a pittosporum tree over the fence outside my kitchen, after he's visited the bowl of sugar-water I put out every day for them. And to think I lived here for 6 years, going across the bridge to catch the train to work and home again and never even gave it a glance. Until I retired.
I'm in no hurry to move from Pookden Manor & Gezza's (bird) Cafe.
pretty interesting what we see when we slow down and have the time to notice.
I've got frogs locally, they've just started singing in the past few weeks, not sure exactly where. Someone must have a pond, but a decent sized one by the sound of them.
Thanks Gez. Nothing kinder to the spirit than to be relaxingly nurtured by nature. Watching the eels cruising about in their stream to the great music of Albertross by Fleetwood Mac, was almost hypnotic. I felt myself drifting.
From memory (and I do stand to be corrected here), your opening piece of music Change Is Gonna Come was originally written and sung by the late Sam Cooke circa 1964, the same year he died. It depicted the era perfectly, when racism and hate was running rife in the USA, particularly in the southern states. Cooke a coloured man himself, put a lot of emotion into that that piece of music, because he experienced the hate and discrimination of the time. You can hear and feel it. Even today when I hear it, the song still brings a tear to my eye, as it did all those years ago when I first heard it. IMO Cooke's song was and still is up there with some of the best protest songs to come out of the 1960s, up there with Bob Dylan, Peter Paul & Mary, Joan Baez, Judy Collins et al.
Sorry I prattled on there. I got carried away with my past … hee hee. Many thanks for the great video and your stories of the critters you live with. Delightful.
You didn’t prattle on at all, mary. A very worthwhile & well-written read.
I knew that Sam Cooke wrote Change Is Gonna Come, but I didn’t know the background to it, & was very interested to learn about it. Seal also did a version of it. I particularly like the brief sax solo in Aaron Neville’s version – very ethereal, to my ears anyway.
I note David Seymour's comments regarding the vaccination code being used for Maori in Auckland has not hurt his standing in the polls and may have boosted his personal support and that for the ACT party.
Wouldn't be surprised. It was an obvious naked appeal to the Māori-bashing element in our society. It put me right off him tho. I thought he was doing ok – better than Collins – as Opposition leader contended up until then.
😠 Grrr! *contender
He quite obviously is doing ok. ACT is the highest it has been in a Colmar-Brunton poll.
Yes, he IS doing well. And I don’t think that’s a bad thing. National needs to get itself sorted with s credible leader. This might be the impetus for them to bite the bullet & fire Collins.
It doesn’t change present representation in Parliament but it does give Seymour even more oxygen in the media. That said, Seymour must be hyperventilating constantly while Labour and Green Ministers are breathing through the nose and doing their part in governing this country.
Stupidly racist dog whistling, works well with stupid racists for gaining votes.
Even David Seymour should be able to understand basic maths: 10-15% is very good for a minor party, and completely useless for winning elections.
Shane Reti called Seymour's comments "disgraceful". That's the deputy leader of the only friends ACT can ever hope to have. If Seymour keeps this up, he could win the war on the Right. Ardern would just have to settle for winning a landslide.
If the move away from the Center Left continues over the next 2 years then the election in 2023 will be much closer than you suggest. Labour and The Greens combined is only 51% at the moment.
Seymour is riding on the fact that people are presently seeing his outward persona, as shilled by the media, who are desperately siezing on anything, that can get their favoured right wing Governmant to poll better. Even had to wheel out Key and Henry.
Like Dunne, and United Future, after the public had a good look at them, once everyone sees the morally bankrupt and truly frightening philosophy and polices behind ACT, I’m sure that they will be back to voting numbers that fit in a telephone booth.
Of course racist dog whitles are always good for a percentage of the vote, but ACT has little substance or widely supported policy beyond that.
What specific policy from ACT is going to scare off the voters?
Asset thefts/sorry sales, privatisation, are not very popular with most people. We are constantly reminded of how much damage it does, with every power bill.
Neither is cutting welfare.
As we have seen recently, even New Zealands right wing are rather keen on State funded welfare. The main compliant has been they are not getting enough of it.
To name just two of ACT’s philosophical policy positions.
Racism “scares” most people these days. We are getting past it. Even National MP’s are finding their Māori side. The times when a Brash could go up 20%by making racist noises, are gone. Fortunately.
???
Don't you even look at ACT's policies or aims?
I thought you were a supporter?
To be fair my comment involving the questions marks was made before you edited your one from just stating Assets
Asset sales are not a major part of ACT policies. The last time they made a big deal of them was the proposal to sell off Land corp land to help fund conservation.
Those philosophical ACT policy positions certainly scare this voter. Not keen on their leader’s racist dog whistling – no doubt it appeals to racists.
You are hardly representative of a swing voter though I suspect.
True, hope I'm largely immune to the racist dog whistles emitted by Seymour and his ilk. Who knows, maybe he'll recruit a few more Nat voters to his cause, but will it be enough two years hence?
Ah yes, who remembers the Pakeha Party and their motto "Whatever Maori get we want it to" (sic) – if only they'd wanted Māori life expectancy; that would have cut down the dog whistling a bit.
The same one that is sinking National.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300417332/covid19-nz-act-says-time-to-give-up-on-getting-to-zero-cases-and-on-lockdowns-and-fear
What specific policy from ACT do you suppose has increased support from the voters?
Not just one but a range. ACT has provided a number of alternatives that the government could follow to such issues as the Housing crisis, 3-waters, and dealing with Covid-19.
The point of being (in) Opposition is to Act as an alternative government. This means you need to come up with policies that differentiate. Such policies can and must then be scrutinised and criticised. ACT (still) is a long way off from its goal; the Greens have achieved it, more or less.
And that is why the Greens are doing so well while ACT is languishing….oh wait a minute… perhaps your analysis is wrong.
Try harder.
Try answering my question to you below.
Done
Gosman ACT are thriving in a centre right vacuum where the greens are competing with a party twice the size of National.
Once National finds a credible leader ACT 's high point will drift back to its base. which will be bigger because of the shambles of National. But ACT's purist straitjacket economic policy will affect Nationals ability to garner moderate swing voters.
What alternative policy of The Greens has been scrutinised in any meaningful way?
In the 2020 Election Campaign, you mean?
Anyway, as I have pointed already, the Greens do their bit governing this country; they are not in Opposition and not actively campaigning like ACT and National. All Government proposals and policies are heavily scrutinised, in Parliament, in the media, and in public. Once cannot treat bullet points and slogans in the same way and this is the Key difference between ACT & National and Labour & the Greens.
I look forward to the polished turd that is National’s peer-reviewed Covid-19 policy or will it be Key’s non-peer-reviewed bullet shit.
I expect a fair number of moderate folk find a determination to repeal the firearms act and waltz down the US path of weekly school shootings not to be the future they are looking for.
Not as simple as that because gangs.
That is not a policy of the ACT party
A determination not to have an arms register, and a promise of "the world's best firearm laws" with no details whatsoever lets the reader put anything they please into that policy void.
It pleases me to assign an outcome consistent with the unworkable antisocial tendencies that characterize ACT policies in general – splendid stuff in a margin of error party dying for a few mouse-clicks, but not to be mistaken for responsible policy from a serious party.
There is plenty of detai. For example here is the detail on the various category of firearms that ACT would introduce.
– Class 1 for bolt/lever/pump actions and .22 rimfire or smaller semi-automatics
– Class 2 for all other semi-automatics (with sporting use allowed)
– Class 3 for pistols (pistol clubs)
– Class 4 for collectors
– Class 5 for theatrical
– etc.
What about that is unclear or suggestive of a free for all?
ACT’s bottom line is to repeal this year’s Arms Legislation Act, … and freedom.
A little nod there to US style gun-nut-jobbery – but no actual suggestion of what this apparently important reform would entail.
Yes, some categories, but little or nothing about how they might be restricted or policed. This is of course politically common – the actual nuts can infer that open slather will be available, the rational folk will presume rational rules, but the policy remains unwritten.
The best firearms policy in the world is an extravagant claim, and its authors have no record of any of their other policies being considered the best in the world. Why would their firearms policy be any better? Had ACT confined themselves to plausible or verifiable claims about their firearms policy they would not have lost credibility as they have in this case.
Ummm… read the rest of the policy. They set out as range of actions NONE of which suggest an open slather on gun control. All repealing the gun laws introduced last year would do is take us back to a position we were before. ACT policy is then to introduce a more nuanced law with broader support especially among lawful gun owners.
When a white supremacist murdered 51 people. Great.
ACT policy is then to introduce a more nuanced law
With the nuances helpfully elided so that they cannot be discussed.
The best policy in the world – without even bothering to scrutinize gun policies worldwide. This is the kind of magical thinking that also characterizes their economic policies.
You didn't read further than the start of the policy quite obviously.
On the contrary – I think I've put more time into it than its authors. Tragic really.
Actually, it is.
https://www.act.org.nz/firearms
Could you let us know the last election National won by alienating the centre ground? Cheers.
Hey Gosman, you're rushing around everywhere repeating the same talking point but you haven't answered this.
Everything else you say is meaningless until you can.
No party wins elections by alienating the centre. I'm not sure what your point is though.
I think you do.
Nope I don't. Perhaps you could elucidate for me.
I can’t do the thinking for you, especially not when your rapid-fire commenting consumes about 98% of the oxygen entering into your brain with the remaining 2% in charge of your essential bodily functions such as keeping you upright and alive.
Heh–“only 51%”.
There is more at play here than Parliamentary party politics, new gen voters will potentially outnumber boomers in 2023 and definitely in 2026 and beyond.
Existential matters like COVID and Climate Disaster (heard of tipping points Gosman) will likely become the main concerns.
And yet The Greens have made no significant gains since the election last year despite your suggestion that the political environment is ripe for them.
Of course media almost totally ignoring the Greens, and constantly publishing Seymour's and Collins every brain fart, has nothing to do with it?
The Greens have made a couple of invidious compromises, but Labour is recovering a part of their vote they haven't had since The Great Betrayal.
Don’t know about you, but the daily 1 pm press conference/release is my daily concern feed. My mental wellbeing rises and falls with the numbers of new cases, positives who were infectious in the community, and other Covid trivia. We live in interesting times.
Covid is in no way an existential matter. Even in countries where it is running rampant it is only impacting in any significant way a small percentage of the population. That is not stating it isn't a serious public health issue. However it is no way a threat to humanity's continued survival.
Kaboom!
You have just blown any credibility you had left.
With one strawman you fob off the concerns (AKA “fears”) of many Kiwis and the global and local impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the wellbeing and existence of many people. You’re as unfit to comment on these sorts of things as ACT and National are unfit to govern NZ. Grow up.
Do you honestly think the Covid-19 pandemic threaten the existence of humanity? It has a mortality rate of less than 5% (and much less than 1% for vaccinated people). On what basis do you claim it is an existential threat?
Don’t Act like a dimwit troll, thanks. You can read English and it is not hard to understand my comment. When did you stop beating your wife and fucking your pig?
There are various strands that link COVID and Climate Change which is why I referenced both in regards of “existential”.
Denial blanks it out for some perhaps. But science is onto it and there are links between climate driven species extinction, change of habitats and behaviour, interaction with humans, and virus transmission between species for starters.
Viruses seem immediate and push the concern button right now, while Climate Change can seem more a “slow armageddon” but both will kill many humans make no mistake.
Dr Shane Reti would say that, as the National Māori MP, and he might even mean it, but then again, National would do just about anything to form a Government in 2023 and Dr Reti is not likely to be its Leader.
And you're proud of that? Yech.
I disagree with the left wing narrative on that issue. I am pointing out that all the people who were arguing that it was horribly racist of him to do that and he would lose support as a result were wrong based on the outcome of this poll.
It was horribly racist, and of course he didn't lose support.
Who said he would (I don't mean on here)? Nobody who has seen it happen again again before … works for a minority, but not for a win.
I don't recall reading that he was horribly racist AND would lose support.
I remember reading and thinking it:
1 was racist
2 would appeal to racists
3 could be another hurdle now to getting more people vaccinated once they find out they were made fun of and thought to be nothing but ACT political fodder.
His rise has more to do with the turmoil in the Nats than any inherent favouring of ACTs policies. .
lol
well over 100 comments when I opened my computer earlier, thought something interesting had happened.
Turned out to be Gosman dreaming of Prime Minister Seymour being thrown into office via a wave of racist support.
Is there a poll of polls graph anywhere?
One with trend lines.
.
What about here?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
Thanks 😀
what we really need is one of those flow graphs that show not just where voters are going but where they’re coming from. UK polling has used them
ACT would have received the wooden stake treatment years ago from NZ electors, but NZ National kept the tumour masquerading as that party’s heart ticking, via multi year Epsom electorate deals.
And now years later ACT has adapted to the toxic modern political environment–Trump style, supporting gun lovers, racists and Incels–while National has not so well.
Does anyone remember Colin James poll of polls? it would be hard to run one now given the paucity of credible and regular political polls. So it is more difficult to discern whether ACT rising is the right vote jiggling about or something new.
It is quite clear given the recent polling results that the combined center right vote is around 40% and the combined center left vote is in the low 50's. It is also clear that ACT has increased it's share of the vote from 8 % to the mid teens whereas National is stuck in the mid 20's, the Greens are no better than where they were at the last election, and Labout has slipped back to being below 50%.
It's voters deserting National (obvs) but it's also the general "anti" vote, which has always been there. Winston was the vehicle for decades, and while NZF support is not negligible, he can't get one-tenth of Seymour's coverage outside Parliament.
For the "bugger you lot" vote, there's no JLR, no religious Right, no options at all really.
Except National is pretty much on the same amount of the vote they got at the last election.
Good, and somebody should tell Judith who was going to step down as Leader if the result was as shambolic as it was indeed.
Poll results:
National down – Good.
Labour down – Not so Good.
Greens the same, – Bad,
Act up – Tragic
.
What has happened to the Green Party?
(Or not happened)
Like a fly trapped in amber.
I am guessing that the Green Party poll results are showing that their core support is staying loyal, but they are not building support or reaching any new voters.
Tragic and unexplainable when the approaching climate crisis has never been more apparent.
James Shaw can say it is because the pandemic has dominated the headlines and sucked up all media attention.
OK. I suppose. Why haven't the Green Party got anything to say about the pandemic?
I would have thought that there was a lot of positive stuff a Green Party could say, about the government's pandemic response. That mightn't be newsworthy, I 'spose
But I would have thought that there are a lot of conclusions that the Green Party could draw from the government's tremendous response to the covid crisis that they could demand be applied to the climate crisis.
That sort of gutsy demand might be newsworthy.
But silence,
Also; this sort of thing doesn't inspire much confidence;
Climate Change; Anatomy of a Mistake
Where is Marama Davidson?
I thought the Green Party had a dual leadership?
No wonder the Green Party can't lift there poll ratings, their public profile during this administration has been non-existant.
Meantime ACTs rise in the polls is tragic.
Compared to the Green Party silence, David Seymour has an opinion on everything. subject you care to mention. And doesn't hesitate to voice it,
They do have things to say about the pandemic. They are wanting to spend even more taxpayers money of boosting benefits even more and slapping rent controls on. People aren't buying it because they don't like it.
You mean you don't like it.
But even that has had little more than a paragraph in the media.
So. How could the public take a position on something they don't know about.
I love the tax payers money bit. When even ACT supporters and the tax Dodgers union are taking "tax payer money".
As those on welfare are generally on it for less than two years and are tax payers for the rest of their lives. Surely that is "returning more of tax payers money" back to the tax payers.
Not just me. The electorate hasn't warmed to their proposals hence why they have not increased their support since the last election.
No man has landed on Mars either. FFS, you are such a simpleton commenter who sucks up way too much oxygen here, as usual. You’re a poster boy for ACT and National alike.
And businesses are not demanding financial support from Government AKA the Taxpayer? You’re so one-eyed you cannot even see it.
The difference is that David Seymour is firmly in the opposition and comfortably so, while the Greens are in the dilemma of not wanting to upset Labour too much, after all they need Labour to get into Government in the future. Which would be the next election. I would not expect them to do much until about a year before election, when they will again be trumping their stellar manifestos to entice people to consider them. Not sure it will work for them, considering the results of the Green Party in Germany.
One of the more interesting points in the German election is the numbers of first voters, who preferred by a very slim margin the FDP to the Greens. 23% vs 22%. The Greens could not even convince the first and young voters to flock to them in large numbers.
David Seymour is in the Right opposition.
I had been hoping that the Green Party could have acted more of a Left opposition to the government. Praising the government when they are doing good, which I think they should do more of. But also giving the government their honest critique when they think the government are letting the environment and climate down. Which I also think they should do more of
What I find unforgiveable is their silence, especially on the pressing matters of the day.
So disappointing.
Certainly been disappointing No Right Turn… the response James Shaw gave to an OIA request around Carbon pricing was um below par…
Something along the lines of Im not going to release those documents or the names of said documents because they're already in the public domain 😂.
Jeez could at least give the guy the titles so he knows where to look to get the information he wants…
The deathy silence from the Greens on Homelessness and Emergency accomodation has been disappointing.
Yes, and it is his right to be where he wants to be on the line of politicals identities that exists between left and right. And it seems that plenty enough people in this country consider him and his party as valid an option as the green party. Go figure.
Nature abhors a vaccume.
The rise of Trump is proof positive.
The Right will move into the political vaccume created by the failure of the Left, (and Centreleft), to address the major issues of the day,
Be it war, be it climate justice, be it inequity.
When liberal half measures dealing with these issues, don't cut it. The Right move in to fill the space with their simplistic narrative. It is immigrants, it is foreigners, or Muslims or Jews, or George Soros and Bill Gates.
Pick your Right Wing conspiracy theory, and run with it, no matter how outrageous or untrue.
Many commentators spend a lot time speculating on when Judith Collins will be replaced as leader of the National Party.
That’s not how it works.
Judith Collins will not be replaced as leader of the National Party. Collins is biding her time, hoping the Left's half measures in addressing climate change or poverty or even failure to 'eliminate' the virus out of fear of upsetting the banksters and financial markets, opens up space for a right wing narrative to gain a foothold.
All Collins needs to do then, is to channel her inner Trump.
The Nats. know or sense this. Which is why Judith Collins will remain their leader for the forseeable future.
The rise of an effete Right Wing nobody like Seymour is an indicator. When the time is right, Collins will overtake Seymour in Right Wing malice.
Until then, Collins is contnet to let Seymour have his brief moment in the sun.
Everybody has an opinion, when prompted, and the TS commentariat is proof of this, but Seymour is not the ‘people’s hero’ nor is he a visionary leader, but he does promote himself rather successfully as a thought & opinion leader and some kind of ‘freedom fighter’. Seymour reminds me of someone and that didn’t end well. Mind you, Seymour and ACT MPs are not burdened with any real governing responsibility; they can say/tweet whatever they like.
Act is still mainly being treated as in their lonely past, as though Seymour is their only MP. They have yet to work out how to allow the other MP's to front issues for which they are the spokesperson, without revealing how nutty they are.
DR RENEE LIANG has written much of what I couldn't put my finger on re Key's piece. A stinging, factual critique on Newsroom.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/covid-is-not-a-choice-for-sick-children-sir-john
Lovely. Keys is a portrait of white privilege in New Zealand. Good to see someone unafraid to boldly state that fact.
Keys sees the world through a tiny lens focussed only on the interests of himself and those close to him.
Dr Liang shows us what he wants to hide.
ACT lays out its death plan.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300417332/covid19-nz-act-says-time-to-give-up-on-getting-to-zero-cases-and-on-lockdowns-and-fear
Pretty sure this plan will create more fear, not less.
How will it create more fear?
More Covid in the community, more pressure on hospitals, more sickness, more death.
More fear.
No. Once vaccination has reached a certain level the ACT party is stating we should not fear opening up and dealing with any outbreaks like most of the rest of the World are now doing. It is this fear of allowing even one case of Covid-19 in the community regardless of the level of our vaccination rate and public health capacity which is what needs to be addressed.
What certain vaccination level is that? Is he proposing we hold a referendum?
One of the things which has made NZ’s Covid response so successful is that we didn’t isolate the vulnerable only. Isolating the vulnerable, othering them, reminds me of cruel totalitarian despot behaviour.
Oh, it’s ACT.
If your solution is never to open up the borders and manage outbreaks only via lockdowns I think you will find people will grow tired of that ESPECIALLY when they see the rest of the World just getting on with living with the virus as they do with any virus that become endemic. The government will start bleeding more and more support if they continue to promote that as the policy and that is why they are slowly distancing themselves from it.
Gosman you obviously don't have children or grandchildren.
The healthworkers in this country don't matter to you.As they will face a massive increase in workload and stress after years of under funding.
With ACT's policies they will have even lower funding.
Except ACT's policy is to increase funding for Public health by 50%
When you put it like that, David, I’d vote for you too in the blink of an eye
If so to private providers.
So, as we all know. Cuts to the actual frontline.
"Except ACT's policy is to increase funding for Public health by 50%"
That caught my eye, so I looked on ACT's website. They mean "Public Health" as in the small public health part of the total health budget, nothing to do with ICU staff, frontline hospitals etc.
Prominent in their health plan is intent to increase the share funnelled off (i.e. transferred from the general public to the wealthy few) as private profit. Apart from that, the overall plan for NZ is to cut spending, cut taxes while at the same time, paying for it all with supposed "savings" (aka cuts).
Darn, I knew there was a catch! I take back my vote; Winston it is then.
Speaking of the rest of the world… you might have noticed the corpses piling up overseas.
We don't know the death toll of endemic covid, and won't until we see the upcoming Northern Hemisphere Winter.
All the dead people overseas feel no fear no longer. Some didn’t even know what hit them. Some were in denial till the very last moment. Kiwis are sensible enough to be cautious and sceptical of calls to drop the elimination strategy and open up too soon, as recent surveys suggest. Quite a few countries had to backtrack from relaxing the rules too much too soon even though they had high vaccination levels. NZ is not frozen by fear; we’re buying time and saving lives, and learning from mistakes made overseas and there were many quite costly mistakes. Personally, I don’t fear dying from Covid-19 but I do fear losing others to Covid-19, here in NZ and overseas. That is my personal fear.
Exactly.
Jesus you're thick Gosman @7.1.1.1.
That one case of Covid-19 has turned into well over 1000 and still rising. Had we ignored the initial identified case we would be looking at a figure well above 10,000 and probably some deaths thrown in for good measure.
And I'm getting heartily sick of the "mis-truths" about our "slow" levels of vaccination. I remember the government chosing Pfizer around 12 months ago because it was recognised as the best. They were one of the first to order sufficient quantities to cover the entire population… and the South Pacific countries for which we share responsibility.
Pfizer was still gearing up production 12 months ago and quite rightly gave precedence to those countries whose rates of Covid cases were going through the roof. Therefore our internationally acknowledged success rate at keeping Covid at bay had an unfortunate consequence… we had to wait longer for sufficient doses to be made available for the rapid roll-out programme to begin.
Medsafe approved the Pfizer vaccine on 3 February 2021, which is less than 7 months ago. I think we have come a long since. Gosman is not thick, but he can be a little disingenuous when he wants to be.
Stand corrected. Too lazy to check. I seem to remember the govt. were talking up the Pfizer vaccine towards the end of 2020 with the expectation of Medsafe approval. 😉
It was not meant as a correction, merely additional background info 🙂
Long covid's not nice.
From the ACT policy document today:
The Government’s response has used fear as a tool. The Prime Minister has referred to
the virus as ‘killer,’ ‘deadly,’ and ‘tricky.’
Also, the PM has controlled the world's media and medical professionals and made them say bad things about poor little Covid … apparently.
Thank goodness these fools were nowhere near the decision-making.
So, they're into conspiracy theories now. I think there will be quite a few ex ACT Party members from the early days who will be glad they got the hell out of it.
The authors of a study of vaccine effectiveness against SS-CoV-2 transmission and infection among household and other close contacts conclude:
"Our study showed that the COVID-19 vaccines not only protect the vaccinee against SS-CoV-2 infection, but also offer protection against transmission to close contacts after completing the full schedule. This finding underscores the importance of full vaccination of close contacts of vulnerable persons."
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.31.2100640
"As our study used data not primarily collected for research purposes, it has some important limitations" and the dominant strain in the population at the time was Alpha.
Nevertheless, the study supports current government policy. The challenge is how to reach those close contacts and obtain their consent.
Dr Liang's summation on Newsroom of facts relating to Covid should be publicised far and wide. Brilliant rebuttal of John Key's superficial recent outburst which was obviously well orchestrated for his own selfish reasons.
Newsroom also quotes Pfizer's rebuttal of $40 million that Key said could have been paid to get earlier stocks of vaccine.
Key is still up to his smile and wave, spray and walk away tricks.
Yes Reality.
Good to see however the fundamental issue for me is that it was published in the first place.
Sir failed flag along with all the other opinionators spinning BS in a pandemic.
Grannys a blog more than a serious news outlet now
I see that Kiwibank seem to be having problems again. My wife and I are not able to access our accounts to make internet payments.
Yes KBank OK earlier. But not now.
Oh dear Gosman – you heartlessly believe that it doesn't matter if hundreds die, hundreds are hospitalised. Please read Newsroom's published article by Dr Liang and grow some empathy and concern for your fellow New Zealanders. It is a brilliant condemnation of how superficial your hero is.
And also please read Pfizer's rebuttal of Key's claim we should have paid $40 million for early deliveries of vaccines. I know in Key's world money buys anything. But even you must have been aware of the greater need for vaccines by other countries ahead of here.
Surely once everyone that wants the vaccine has it, there will not be hundreds die or getting hospitalised. The vaccine drastically reduces that.
You didn’t read the article by paediatrician Dr Liang, did you?
Can you get through your head that the vaccine is not a silver bullet? Or do you prefer to deny reality and inconvenient facts?
I am well aware it is not a silver bullet. Vaccinated people can still catch the virus and still pass it on as we have been told. But the effects of Covid are far less and will hopefully prevent hospitalisation and death. If this was not the case, I would not bother getting my second jab.
You missed the point that even with some level of protection by the vaccine, this protection is not absolute, not permanent, different in people with vulnerabilities (e.g. age and/or other conditions), affects unvaccinated children, et cetera. More vaccination probably and hopefully means fewer restrictions to keep the numbers down of people requiring medical care and/or hospitalisation. The vaccine alone won’t be enough though unless you're willing to accept the consequences.
The vaccine in itself,whilst reducing severity,does not reduce risk from behavioral choice.Important thread.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1442160150266138626?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1442160150266138626%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Fquery%3Dhttps3A2F2Ftwitter.com2Fyaneerbaryam2Fstatus2F1442160150266138626widget%3DTweet
If everyone that gets it is only 80% or 85% of the eligible population (12 and over), then there will indeed be hundreds dying and thousands hospitalised when covid runs rampant. If not thousands dying, and tens of thousands of hospitalisations.
Polling suggests that "definitely not" are about 7% and that number seems fairly stable over time. "probably not" are around 13%. To get to vaccination coverage rates high enough to not have overwhelming hospitalisations and deaths, somehow most of those "probably not" need to be turned into "OK I did it".
Personally I think it's time the government started showing a bit of "kindness" to those of us that have shown a bit of respect to the community along with their self-care and actually got vaccinated, and turned a bit of mongrel loose on the “yet-to-be vaccinated”.
Too early to let the dogs out yet; there are already feral dogs running rampant and barking at each and every tree. With puppies you need to house-train them first and make sure they are properly socialised or they’ll become aggressive bullies pissing & shitting everywhere and on everything. Make sure the puppy has all its vaccinations before it goes to puppy training and make sure it is micro-chipped and ‘fixed’. Then you’re good to go with your puppy and become a responsible fully-licensed dog owner who will experience much rewarding joy with and from your canine companion.
There will always be some "definitely nots" that will never get vaccinated. I guess it is their choice and their risk. Unfortunately if they do then end up sick they will expect hospital treatment (that's another discussion). I've had my first jab and am all for getting as many people as possible to have it.
See Israel for what happens when you let the plague run through even a vaccinated population. It isn't pretty.
Covid Vaccines are good, of course, but thinking they make you bullet-proof is a recipe for disaster.
The virus has forced an absolute choice – vaccinations or lockdowns. The large majority of the community have chosen vaccination.
It's utterly fkn unpalatable that lockdowns are lasting a lot longer than necessary because of some that choose not to be vaccinated (or are dragging it out). Those that choose not to vaccinate should have to live the lockdown life for themselves, not force it onto the rest of us.
Bring on the vaccination passports and make them apply widely and enforce them hard.
What part of "vaccinated people can still die from this thing," don't you understand?
Death happens to 100% of us who have ever been alive.
Vaccination brings the risks of severe illness and premature death from covid down to a level similar to other routine risks we accept in everyday life.
If that risk is too high for you, go ahead and live your life sheltering yourself from it. But if you want me to live the rest of my life under lockdown conditions because you're afraid of covid even though you're vaccinated, or you don't want vaccinate yourself, you can fuck right off.
We simply don't know what the risk of "severe illness and premature death" with a vaccinated population will look like until we see the Northern Hemisphere winter. Israel's example is not promising.
You need to get this mantra of "it'll be like flu" out of your head. It might be like flu (500 deaths a year), but I would be sceptical. Would you tolerate a virus that kills, say, 3-4000 a year? 5000 a year? We literally don't know how many people endemic Covid kills.
We all die from something eventually. Covid is here to stay, we need to choose how we are going to deal with that fact. Life has changed. There is no going back to a pre-covid morbidity and mortality environment, just as there is no going back to a pre-covid international travel and economic environment. Permanently curtailing our actual Bill of Rights rights is just not palatable, especially not for something as mild as covid is in vaccinated people.
If the choice is living in perpetual lockdown, or even the threat of lockdowns as frequent as Auckland has had over the last 18 months, versus 3000 to 5000 slightly premature deaths per year, then I would choose the deaths as the price of regaining our Bill of Rights freedom of movement, freedom of association, freedom of peaceable assembly and freedom of religion. Lockdowns really do fuck with people's lives that badly.
But from a balanced look at the actual data that's out there, it wouldn't be 3000 to 5000 deaths per year in a population of 5 million vaccinated people. It might be 300 deaths in a population of 4 million vaccinated plus 3000 deaths out of 1 million unvaccinated. That's the unvaccinateds choice.
When it comes to "Israel's example", two points:
First, Israel is not a highly-vaccinated population. It's only at about 65% of the population vaccinated.
Second, when analysed with an understanding of Simpson's Paradox, the data in Israel still points to very high vaccine effectiveness. The apparent decline in effectiveness is an artefact of vaccination rates among different age groups and when the different age groups were vaccinated. But the depth of analysis needed to understand it makes it easy for anti-vaxers to pop out misleading simplistic anti-vaccine soundbites.
https://salthillstatistics.com/posts/109
We know that among vaccinated populations, covid does not sicken and kill enough people to justify the disruption to people's lives caused by extended lockdowns. That we don't know the exact number over an extended period does not justify keeping the extended lockdowns, because we know the number is low enough to get rid of lockdowns for the vaccinated.
The virus obviously prefers Repugnants.
In counties where Trump received at least 70% of the vote, the coronavirus has killed about 47 out of every 100,000 people since the end of June. In counties where Trump won less than 32% of the vote, the number is about 10 out of 100,000. (New York Times)
Or maybe Repugnants are less likely to get vaccinated.
@Macro yeah, but that's US weird darwinism. Here is NZ it's some different groups that are vaccine hesitant. With different obstacles to getting vaccinated.
A majority of UK deaths right now are fully vaccinated people… so you're talking over 500 fully vaccinated deaths a week. That works out at a good 1500 NZ vaccinated deaths a year… and we have yet to see Northern Hemisphere Winter:
COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report – week 38 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
Fact is, vaccines (while excellent) are a risk reduction measure, not a replacement for other tools, and pretending that it's a binary choice (rather than a mixture of both) is nonsense. By scrapping lockdown, you're sentencing plenty of vaccinated people to death. And I truly love how you describe killing elderly people as "slightly premature deaths."
BTW Israel is highly vaccinated among adults by Western standards.
Who says it's one or tother?
The virus does.
Jimmy Look up Israel covid stats, and Britain has figures that already look like 52000 a year dying.
Those who are not vaccinated or compromised are not protected.
Children are not able to be vaccinated yet, so it is dire, and we are watching this as we vaccinate our population knowing so many will still be at risk.
I have had two serious viral illnesses in my life. They often leave serious results and can return in another guise.
We are still learning about this foe. It is dangerous as it mutates. A few more months of planning and trials seems sensible. Anything else seems reckless.
“But even you must have been aware of the greater need for vaccines by other countries ahead of here.”
So what has changed that our need now over rides the need by other countries? Should we still not wait for the planned delivery of our vaccines and not paid to push the process along. Many here have commented that our success is well above most countries. Should not the vaccines we have purchased be directed to countries where the need is greater? I think there now is a political motivation, that protection political capital is far more important than saving lives within other countries.
Greater availability?
Fiji has administered enough doses to cover 54.8% of the pop. but I gather they are in greater need than us & this from their govt. that they are restricted by supply !!!
"Due to the limited global supply and high global demand for COVID-19 vaccines, Fiji’s vaccines have been prioritized and provided to those who are considered most vulnerable to COVID-19."
https://www.health.gov.fj/covid-vaccine/vaccine-faqs/
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/fiji/
More like thousands die.
grow some empathy and concern for your fellow New Zealanders
The only time tory's show empathy is when some rich prick looses some momey.
Our family is forever grateful to Labour and Jacinda Ardern for the decisions made so far. We have been extremely fortunate, and it has not been without sacrifice.
Seymour is using Key's strategies. Smile, say want he thinks will appeal to a faction, and look harmless. Sadly the gullible and the racists read into his comments their positions.
Like Key he would have a faithful group to do the dirty work. Once again no journalist calls Seymour out. It was really pleasing to see journalists call out Key's rubbish.
Apathy lets these slimy beggars get away with so much.
Thing is, sooner or later ACt will have to do more than backseat drive and utter banal platitudes. They're going to have to "act" on their true nature, and see if that gets them 15% of the vote.
Key lying again claiming if we paid a premium pfizer would have delivered vaccines early.
Pfizer made a public statement that definitely no country can buy their way up the queue.
Looks like National are using a 2nd hand leader to pass on 2nd hand lies.
Pfizer calling John Key a liar priceless !
And KEY didnt return calls re the Pfizer story.
That means OK i lied!!!
Actually, at the end of the day, he couldn’t remember, but he got pretty close with getting the name of the company correct.
dickhead still thinks everything comes down to buying someone.
Another public slap down for the former prime minister of reckons, Jong Kee:
No doubt Surge-on woulda got the deal done.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300417494/pfizer-rebuts-john-keys-vaccine-payment-claim
This is in reply to a comment I feel love a few days ago. My apologies in advance I feel love, because I can no long find your comment, so I am going from memory of what you said. feel free to correct me.
My memory is you said that Trans people don't see the Standard as a safe place and that SUFW have organised or had intention that that should happen.
Let me assure you this isn't the case. SUFW have been too busy writing submissions and taking a case to the high court when there meetings were shut down. The commenters on the Standard who come from a Gender Critical, for want of a better term, position are long time regulars who comment on a range of issues. The likes of Sabine, Weka, Rosemary and Francesca. I suspect not too many SUFW followers know of the Standard because if their intention was to make the Standard "unsafe" for transs, there would have been a bombardment of over 200 new commenters. The one new commenter I am aware of is Joanne Perkins, who is trans and her comments have been welcomed by gender critical commenters.
Myself, I have been commeting on the Standard from around 2013. And for the record, I have never had a moderator warn me about my comment, been threatened by a ban or received a ban.
But you reminded me about the issue of safe spaces and I would urge everyone to read the link below. It is written by Paul Letham a cousellor who works with LBGT and is gay himself.
"i became a counsellor a decade ago for several reasons, the main one being that I wished to work within the broader LGBT community. That has always been my raison d'etre, my mission, my kaupapa"
"Much is made nowadays of "safe spaces" for minorities to helter in. Well if you want the ultimate safe space to shelter in, its a therapist's couch"
"go to the Rainbow Youth website and search for the word gay or lesbian in the search bar found to the upper left. You will find nothing"
https://shadowbox.substack.com/p/a-small-cancellation?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta
Damage is done Anker.
I've done the one post supporting their legislative cause, nearly a dozen posts here against their cause.
You and Micky did a pro sex-self ID posts each (Micky maybe did two?).
I've done four gender critical posts (not all on self ID). Who wrote the other eight?
I have always known and experienced the Standard as a place of robust and rigourous debate and discussion Ad. Sometimes it gets abusive, but usually the moderators pull people up on this. This is the nature of the Standard.
How do you imagine this "damage" might not have been done????? Gender Critical Women shutting up?
I would recomend you read the article I posted on Shadow box about safe spaces.
Here's I Feel Love's comment,
. https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-26-09-2021/#comment-1818832
I agree it's an odd comment. Occasionally someone from Speak Up For Women comments here but it's not often.
But you know, it's not safe for women here either in that sense. We do what we can do.
I am curious……how would we make this blog safe for trans people? I suspect it is to agree with trans ideology……but many of us don't.
Again I would advise people to read the article I posted from the counsellors space.
You make the assumption that what I Feel Love said was accurate, even though they provided no examples, just stated it as if it was arguably true.
I am sure there is discomfort for some (not all) in reading the discussions on TS, because the No Debate policy has made it unnecessary to develop the skills for the "robust debate" TS is known for.
So much easier to say it is "unsafe" without providing examples, and to not listen or engage with integrity.
You have the grace to take I Feel Love's comment at face value. I consider it to be manipulative rather than informative when it is provided without examples. At least then, the discussion can move forward if concrete concerns are raised.
I believe many commenters here have tried to engage honestly. Discomfort may come from an unwillingness to do so, rather than comments being written intended to harm.
Bang on Molly. And I particularly want to acknowledge how responsive and welcoming you have been to Joanne Perkins
Joanne has taken the time to share her views as far as she is comfortable, providing some insight into her experiences.
It is very easy to engage with a commentator that speaks with clarity and good intention, as you try to create a space of trust and mutual respect.
Agree Molly,
Suspect Ad has sprayed and walked away.. but maybe I do him a diservice………………I don't know if his intention was to induce guilt, but it is a dumpy sort of thing to say, especially if he doesn't follow up with a response, particularly to Weka who challenged him on the numbers of posts on BMDRR etc
Love your straight talking Molly.
to put safety into perspective, I remember long heated threads during the Assange debates where regular male commenters were arguing that having sex with a sleeping woman was ok and we had to not only argue against why that wasn't true but point to the NZ legislation on the matter. I had many women thank me and others for pushing back against the rape culture stuff because they felt they couldn't. Safety here doesn't mean that everyone gets to feel great or comfortable, it means that there are boundaries in place so that women can take part in the debate. If there is hostility towards women eg women that have been raped and want to talk about the politics of that, that creates an 'unsafe' environment and lots of women will just stay away.
I count at least five women authors, all feminists, who have stopped writing here because of the problems in the culture.
I worked hard as a commenter and then as an author over a number of years to create spaces here that a range of women would find easier to be in. It's been an uphill battle. What I loved about the Women's Space posts was that all of a sudden women were commenting.
Safety as a place where people's politics are never challenged is not TS. How to tell the difference between that and the safety I talk about above is not always easy, but I haven't seen much in the way of aggression or hostility to trans people here. It's obvious that arguing the politics is hard for some trans people. Whether that is harder than what women have to do I don't know, but obviously having a feminist writing here makes a difference, as does numbers. People can say it's unsafe here but I don't see many people doing the mahi to change that. For my part, I'm moderating here to try and make the place easier for trans people to take part in the debate, but that's not a matter of not discussing GCF etc. I'm open to people talking to me about how that moderation might be improved, but again, I'm not seeing much in the way of stepping up and doing the mahi.
I actually think that TS is one of the few online spaces where a relatively evenhanded debate can take place. It's certainly in stark contrast to somewhere like twitter.
If I was Trans I wouldn't come here to face the barage of accusations, lumping them in as predators, men in frocks, men in wigs etc. Even above, Anker talks about "not agreeing with the Trans Ideology" what is that? the ideology of wanting to be accepted and acknowledged, how disgusting of them /sarc. None of you need bother answering, the question is rhetorical. Maybe the Woman's Space is the best and safest place for your conversations on this topic (yes, I know its open mike) There would be less chance of offence being taken on either side.
Link to comments that accuse all trans people as predators, or those that refer to transwomen as you describe. When you do find them, we can then discuss or deride as fits.
You may then discover the word transphobic is used more often (inaccurately), when commentators have the audacity to say anything about the possible impact on women's rights. Or we can muse on the appropriation of existing language to mean something else (which is not only arrogant, it pollutes discussion – perhaps intentionally?}
"Anker talks about "not agreeing with the Trans Ideology" what is that? the ideology of wanting to be accepted and acknowledged, how disgusting of them /sarc. " Sarc indeed. Once again, provide links to back up your accusations, or we can just recognise them for the hyperbolic misdirections that they are.
Current Trans Activist Ideology will include such statements as:
Transwomen are women. Transmen are men.
Gender identity superceeds biological sex in regards to single sex spaces.etc.
If you really need to be informed then you haven't given the time and effort necessary to contribute meaningfully to this topic.
But nothing in your comment is a contribution really, is it?
You just couldn't refrain from giving any commentator who seeks reassurances for the impact on the rights of women and girls a telling off… again. Which included an instruction not to reply. Nothing of substance intended or included.
Think about this.
red blooded one trans ideology is separate from people who identify as transgender.
It is a theorectical construct that claims gender identity, an internal feeling trumps biology or the material reality of sex. It developed out of the theoretical writing of Judith Butler an academic.
So it is like criticizing marxism. Not all transgender people accept trans ideology. There was a trans women from the UK giving a submission to the BMDRR sub committee who said she didn't believe in the concept of gender identity. She had just transition from being a man to living as a women. She said she knows she is not a woman
I'm using the term gender identity ideology now. This separates if from trans people as a class, and lays it squarely in politics instead.
Good idea. As much clarity as possible.
Gender identity ideology is good
If you don't know what gender identity ideology is, there's probably no way for you to understand what is being discussed /shrug. Doubly so if you don't want people to talk to you about it and explain.
red blooded one trans ideology is separate from people who identify as transgender.
It is a theorectical construct that claims gender identity, an internal feeling trumps biology or the material reality of sex. It developed out of the theoretical writing of Judith Butler an academic.
So it is like criticizing marxism. Not all transgender people accept trans ideology. There was a trans women from the UK giving a submission to the BMDRR sub committee who said she didn't believe in the concept of gender identity. She had just transition from being a man to living as a women. She said she knows she is not a woman
Thanks Weka. For some reason I missed this debate on the Standard. I understand what you say on it feeling unsafe for women here. I mean holy F..k. No wonder women left the site!
On another note did you know Elizabeth Kerekere has posted a picture on her FB pageof the SUFW spokewoman and a talked about hate groups submitting?
Did you know SUFW site was hacked and their membership/email database copied?
ooph, that's full on.
I received a notification a couple of weeks ago, as I am their email list for updates.
(Also on Green Party, Labour Party and National Party lists – although I think that has lapsed. Lazy way of staying informed).
Hey Molly wasn’t it about 4 weeks ago SUFW hacked?
Anker, If I could be bothered checking the date I would likely find out that you are correct.
A bit of a kick in the nuts for Keir Starmer…UK Labour Conference votes to call out Israel as an Apartheid State…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-conference-israel-palestine-apartheid-b1927830.html
Of course senior Labour MPs immediately dissassociated themselves from a democratic membership decision–just as social democratic parties often do. As in the NZ Labour Party, the “Parliamentary wing” generally lords it over the ordinary members.
Sturmer's compensated by nixing the 15 quid minimum wage.
MordorLa PalmaJust watched the 1pm presser – 8 new cases!
But what struck me most was how relaxed Jacinda appeared. A good sign – we really are getting on top of this latest outbreak?
I wish I could feel as optimistic.
Great to see Boris Johnson facing up to the gravity of his Brexit madness by putting the army on ert due to the acute fuel shortages.
Lots of empty supermarket shelves as well.
Hope they chuck him out.
World maps place Britain in Europe, yet somehow they thought they could leave!
They still haven’t sealed off the tunnel to the other side.
butbutbut it's a long term problem of not enough truckies…
/sarc
Is he going to ferry pensioners to the shops in tanks?
NO NO NO the stupid bastards deserve him.
Yes I feel a bit of that too.
Let's see how the polls track, but it's still a long time to 2024.
Maybe its boris' way of upping ev ownership.
Or encouraging walking and cycling as contributions to public health.
Remember carless days? It's so 1979.
https://nzhistory.govt.nz/media/photo/carless-days#:~:text=Carless%20days%20were%20introduced%20on,that%20vehicle%20on%20the%20road.
Dear Renters, A bad day for you, labours new legislation as outlined by David Parker is about to make your life a lot harder. You might want to call your labour MP and talk them through the real life consequences of this crap piece of policy.
You mean this?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/452495/new-tenancy-clause-to-provide-certainty-clarity-for-renters-landlords
Love to hear how this will make renters 'life a lot harder'. Go on, enlighten me.
no, not that, the other piece of legislation – the one that will result in an even greater shortage of rental properties and a significant rise in rental costs – renters should be fuming about this.
This one?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/452498/some-developers-may-be-offered-incentive-by-tax-rule-exemption
My rent has gone up every year regardless, this sounds like encouragement for more 'build-to-rent' developments, that means more supply not less.
yes, of course, hundreds, nay thousands of new homes will pop up over night and it will be nirvana for renters.
We have such an abundance of skilled tradesman, building materials and willing councils, it is going to be wonderful.
Your sarcasm is unable to conceal your limited thinking.
Previous to this policy there was little incentive for developers to build properties for the rental market specifically, now is there is one. It won't happen overnight (obviously) but I thought you people liked market incentives and tax write-offs to change behaviour? One of the alternative options was on the ballot in Berlin: Expropriation.
Say what you like, just wait to see what happens over the next 24 months. There will be bugger all increase in supply and the downtrodden renters will be paying more in rental costs, it is economics 101.
Justifying this brilliantly thought out piece of legislation to renters heading into the next election will be one hell of task.
Just take a look at the current situation in Tauranga, a massive shortage of homes to buy or rent, no prospect of supply catching up with demand for at least ten years, no additional land to build on etc, etc.
This is farcical piece of legislation is going to hurt a lot of traditional labour voters.
Actually Allan, the rising sea may remove stock in Tauranga and Papamoa.