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Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020

Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, September 2nd, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, MMP, national, nz first - Tags: , , , ,

A trend of 2020 polling resultsHi all, sorry about missing the post for the previous Roy Morgan poll– I’ve been having connection problems for a wee bit over a month that just hit at the wrong time for me to be able to write a post for that one, and my phone’s internet wasn’t stable enough to send off a post unfortunately, even though I had it drafted. I did manage to get the results onto Twitter if you want to see them. Was intending to catch up yesterday or today and post my draft with images and proper metadata, but we’ve been overrun by the new Roy Morgan results, so why don’t we skip ahead straight to the new one.

It looks like just under a month out from the delayed election date, we’re finally getting some narrowing of the poll results, with Labour under 50% for the first time since March, but still within shooting distance of a majority government- the line for this varies based on how much of the party vote is given to parties that don’t enter Parliament, but the plurality winner (largest result winner, so in 2017 this was National) of the party vote getting below 47% is usually a pretty safe line to call it an expected minority government.

A half-pie chart of expected results from this poll.As Roy Morgan doesn’t run a seat calculation on their results, I’ve done that for you on the left. This represents the single most likely result from this poll, if we trust its methodology. As usual, I should point out that although the Roy Morgan was our second most reliable poll in 2017, it consistently overpolls the Greens compared to the other two polls, and is likely overestimating their support significantly here. This difference has become more dramatic in 2020 polling, and while it’s possible Roy Morgan is the one that’s more accurate about the Greens, I disagree with that idea based on past performance. That said, despite some people’s dismissal of the Roy Morgan poll, it is the only poll that sticks to a regular timeline, and it was actually more accurate than Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) overall, when you compare it to the closest timed Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election, meaning it arguably comes in second of the three big polls. Roy Morgan, like Colmar Brunton, polls using phone cold-calling.

A pie chart of expected government types from this pollOnto the party vote- at 48%, Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government- there is some chance their actual support falls below that magic margin to get a majority government, so the narrowing has brought us back into interesting territory here again. Note that the chance for a Labour-Green government just relies on the Greens being over threshold, (which is 100% based on the party vote support given, and would be even if we assume RM is over-reporting on the Greens by a full 4 points) not on their actual level of support. Any over-threshold result in those 22.4% of simulations gives us a Labour-Green government, showing that Green support is critical right now if we want a result that requires Labour to be accountable to a coalition partner. National is clearly hoping it can knock the Greens under threshold to move the overton window a bit further right based on recent attempts to further outrage over the Green School decision, and there have been questions of whether New Zealand First is leaking on the issue, too.

In this analysis, ACT were under threshold in 9.2% of simulations, and New Zealand first in 95.6%, meaning they are extremely likely to be over and under, respectively, when the trend is taken into account. Based on actual polling data, I do not consider a Northland win for Shane Jones worth considering at this point, meaning NZF must be over threshold to win seats.

A trendline of party vote support modelling.The trend is still very solidly left-wing at the moment, with only a few blips based on outlier polls even bringing National into significant contention during Ardern’s entire time governing. We’ll see if things close any further for National during the remaining month of the campaign, but at this stage I’m personally more concerned about the composition of the expected left-wing government. While I’m happy to have New Zealand First gone under current polling, I consider it a very good thing we’ve not yet seen a majority government under MMP.

Roy Morgan don’t disclose the exact fieldwork dates on their poll, but do tell us notable recent events that are covered:

“Interviewing for this survey in August encompassed the period including the enforcement of Stage 3 restrictions across Auckland following the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the city and the decision to postpone the election by four weeks.”

Based on this, I think it likely that this result excludes the recent Green School controversy, and we should certainly wait for the next Reid Research (Newshub) or Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) poll to inform where we think the Greens are at anyway.

On individual MPs, here’s how the party lists look when I run this result through my model for electorate shifts: (List continues in order until last winner)

National
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Judith Collins Papakura Electorate
2 Gerry Brownlee Ilam Electorate
3 Paul Goldsmith Epsom List
4 Simon Bridges Tauranga Electorate
5 Shane Reti Whangārei Electorate
6 Todd McClay Rotorua Electorate
7 Chris Bishop Hutt South List
8 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty Electorate
9 Louise Upston Taupō Electorate
10 Scott Simpson Coromandel Electorate
11 David Bennett Hamilton East Electorate
12 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin List
13 Nicola Willis Wellington Central Defeated
14 Jacqui Dean Waitaki Electorate
15 Mark Mitchell Whangaparāoa Electorate
16 Melissa Lee Mt Albert Defeated
17 Andrew Bayly Port Waikato Electorate
18 Nick Smith Nelson Defeated
19 Maureen Pugh List No Seat
20 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country Electorate
21 Harete Hipango Whanganui Defeated
22 Johnathan Young New Plymouth Electorate
23 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West Electorate
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Defeated
25 Paulo Garcia List No Seat
26 Nancy Lu List No Seat
27 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill Defeated
28 Agnes Loheni List No Seat
29 Dale Stephens Christchurch Central Defeated
30 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatū Defeated
31 Matt Doocey Waimakariri Electorate
32 Stuart Smith Kaikōura Electorate
33 Lawrence Yule Tukituki Defeated
34 Denise Lee Maungakiekie Defeated
35 Simon O’Connor Tāmaki Electorate
36 Brett Hudson Ōhariu Defeated
37 Simeon Brown Pakuranga Electorate
38 Ian McKelvie Rangitīkei Electorate
39 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays Electorate
40 Matt King Northland Electorate
41 Chris Penk Kaipara ki Mahurangi Electorate
42 Tim Van de Molen Waikato Electorate
43 Dan Bidois Northcote Electorate
44 Jo Hayes Mana Defeated
45 Katie Nimon Napier Defeated
46 Catherine Chu Banks Peninsula Defeated
47 Hamish Campbell Wigram Defeated
48 David Patterson Rongotai Defeated
49 Lisa Whyte New Lynn Defeated
50 Rima Nakhle Takanini Defeated
51 Liam Kernaghan Taieri Defeated
52 Bala Beeram Kelston Defeated
53 Lincoln Platt Christchurch East Defeated
54 William Wood Palmerston North Defeated
55 Nuwi Samarakone Manurewa Defeated
56 Mark Crofskey Remutaka Defeated
57 Jake Bezzant Upper Harbour Electorate
58 Mike Butterick Wairarapa Defeated
59 Tim Costley Ōtaki Electorate
60 Nicola Grigg Selwyn Electorate
61 Christopher Luxon Botany Electorate
62 Joseph Mooney Southland Electorate
63 Penny Simmonds Invercargill Electorate
64 Tania Tapsell East Coast Defeated
65 Simon Watts North Shore Electorate

 

Labour
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert Electorate
2 Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau Electorate
3 Grant Robertson Wellington Central Electorate
4 Phil Twyford Te Atatū Electorate
5 Megan Woods Wigram Electorate
6 Chris Hipkins Remutaka Electorate
7 Andrew Little List List
8 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston Electorate
9 David Parker List List
10  Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato Electorate
11  Trevor Mallard List List
12  Stuart Nash Napier Electorate
13  Jenny Salesa Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Electorate
14  Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman Electorate
15  Kris Faafoi List List
16  David Clark Dunedin Electorate
17  Ayesha Verrall List List
18  Peeni Henare Tāmaki Makaurau Electorate
19  Willie Jackson List List
20  Aupito William Sio List List
21  Poto Williams Christchurch East Electorate
22  Vanushi Walters List List
23  Michael Wood Mt Roskill Electorate
24  Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru Electorate
25  Kiri Allan East Coast Electorate
26  Kieran McAnulty Wairarapa Electorate
27  Louisa Wall List List
28  Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Electorate
29  Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga Electorate
30  Camilla Belich Epsom List
31  Priyanca Radhakrishnan Maungakiekie Electorate
32  Jan Tinetti Tauranga List
33  Deborah Russell New Lynn Electorate
34  Marja Lubeck Kaipara ki Mahurangi List
35  Angie Warren-Clark Bay of Plenty List
36  Willow-Jean Prime Northland List
37  Tamati Coffey Waiariki Electorate
38  Naisi Chen Botany List
39  Jo Luxton Rangitata List
40  Jamie Strange Hamilton East List
41  Liz Craig Invercargill List
42  Ibrahim Omer List List
43  Duncan Webb Christchurch Central Electorate
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki List List
45  Ginny Andersen Hutt South Electorate
46  Rachel Brooking List List
47  Paul Eagle Rongotai Electorate
48  Helen White Auckland Central Electorate
49  Barbara Edmonds Mana Electorate
50  Angela Roberts Taranaki-King Country List
51  Shanan Halbert Northcote Defeated
52  Neru Leavasa Takanini Electorate
53  Tracey McLellan Banks Peninsula Electorate
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene List No Seat
55  Steph Lewis Whanganui Electorate
56  Dan Rosewarne Waimakariri Defeated
57  Rachel Boyack Nelson Electorate
58  Arena Williams Manurewa Electorate
59  Ingrid Leary Taieri Electorate
 Greg O’Connor Ōhariu Electorate
Anna Lorck Tukituki Electorate

 

Green
No. Name
1 Marama Davidson
2 James Shaw
3 Chlöe Swarbrick
4 Julie Anne Genter
5 Jan Logie
6 Eugenie Sage
7 Golriz Ghahraman
8 Teanau Tuiono
9 Elizabeth Kerekere
10 Ricardo Menéndez March
11 Steve Abel
12 Teall Crossen
13 Scott Willis
14 Kyle Macdonald
15 Lourdes Vano

(Remember as above, this result likely inflates the Green vote)

ACT
No. Name
1 David Seymour (Epsom)
2 Brooke van Velden
3 Nicole McKee
4 Chris Baillie
5 Simon Court
6 James McDowall
7 Karen Chhour
8 Mark Cameron

30 comments on “Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020 ”

  1. Peter 1

    " Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government."

    Labour was never guaranteed a majority government. There may have been polls which indicated they could be a majority government.

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1

      The previous recent polls were strong enough that statistically they predicted a guaranteed Labour majority government if the election were held at that time period. I think the implication of what I’m saying is very clear there.

  2. weka 2

    what's your thinking on whether Peters can rally the NZF vote at the last minute?

  3. Patricia Bremner 3

    Thank you Mathew, we just want Labour and the Greens in, and that looks hopeful.

    People have short memories sadly.

  4. Robert Guyton 4

    Meh…

  5. We can only hope Labour are up for this. I’m In TukiTuki the electorate. The river of the same name is full of the same crap as the current MP

    • NZJester 5.1

      Don't forget to the current MP was in charge as Mayor when Nat voter filled Havelock North got a bad case of bacteria in their water, but the Nat voters some how still voted for him.

      He jumped ship to be a MP as he knew he would likely never have got their vote as Mayor, but that Nat voter are stupid enough to still vote for him as their MP even after the big stuff up under his management.

  6. peterh 6

    Even if Lab got 52% Greens 6% I think Lab would take the greens with them

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.1

      A majority government where Labour invests in possibly needing the Greens again in the future looks very different to a minority government where Labour has no choice but to secure the Greens' support.

  7. Treetop 7

    This poll reflects community transmission of Covid – 19 and an additional lockdown at level 3 in Auckland.

    The question which will be on a voter's mind is.

    Which main political party will handle the Covid transmission and economic fallout better?

  8. Kiwibarnes 8

    WAIT- what happened to Palmerston North??? You don't think Tangi Utikere will win for Labour? He's taking over ILG's seat with a 6000+ majority…

    • Matthew Whitehead 8.1

      Nah, that's just a matter of me not having added him to the list of electorate-only candidates for Labour after ILG's resignation. I've confirmed he's running and done that for future list calcs, so he would technically bump Angela Roberts out of Parliament given I have Labour winning the electorate.

  9. Treetop 9

    Reply to @7.1

    Which main political party do I trust to handle Covid – 19 transmission and the economic fallout better?

  10. greywarshark 10

    I think that smart Labour thinking would be to enable the Greens to get an electorate seat, and lock them into being in Parliament definitely. We lefties don't want a wasted vote, and if Labour went on its snooty and superior way of being pure and going it alone, we wouldn't forget that second blow at our democracy they will have delivered.

    I don't know if the brains of Labour strategists put the above matters in the top priority when making their plans. But let's hope I am just a Doubting Thomas, all gloomy and inclined to think the worst. It would be good to get a good rollicking and kick in the butt when reason and sensible tactics prevail and there is practical and pragmatic movement from Labour as referred to above. I would endure punishment with good grace.

    If they get the Greens in for sure that would show Labour doing their best to facilitate left voters who are basically the thinking voters, and the for-NZ voters, and those for a good-sharing and thriving democracy voters, who would then have a chance to restore a reality that people can be pleased to observe in New Zealand. At present, and I feel I speak for most of those in the bloc described above, we do not feel pleased with how things are. We are haggard and anxious about our situation and the pathological fails we have endured for so long, so Labour you owe all of us, to first ensure that Greens are in Parliament, and second to get a workable Coalition with them.

    To be coarse, pull finger! Plain speaking is necessary to illustrate the seriousness of the position in NZ. You must commit to serving NZ citizens' interests, honestly make promises that you can keep, don't rely on BS from business people sucking off the government teat. The writers in Star Wars had Yoda saying the applicable directive, "No! Try not. Do… Or do not. There is no try."

    • Matthew Whitehead 10.1

      You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal.

      Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system anyway.

      If you want the Greens in, I'd say it's up to you to party vote accordingly, it's not up to Labour.

      (Also, I’ve seen nothing pre-Green School issue that suggested Greens were under threshold)

      • greywarshark 10.1.1

        I'm saying that Labour should want the Greens in. Instead of being so blatantly full of hubris, and self-centred; we stand alone! Let them replace the hubris with humble – they owe the workers; the growing lower-income, under-employed, precariat strata for the damage they have caused to the inclusive economy, and setting up a two-tier inflation regime. Low here, and who cares for the housing sector. They have the mass power, we invested in them with our votes, and now we want a bit of dividend. Let them flex their muscle; they are the big boys, I'm just a teeny cog.

        What about the threshhold then – what is your feeling that it should be at four percent? That way it eases matters a little for parties which genuinely want to be part of a good democracy. I think lower than that – there be dragons.

      • observer 10.1.2

        "You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal."

        Amen.

        Every discussion on this issue has people making simplistic assumptions without addressing this really basic point: how does it affect the nationwide vote that actually decides elections?

        We can't just add (e.g.) 5 to 50 and assume all those votes are locked in regardless. We know that around 12-15% of voters are people who ticked National last time, but are currently in Labour's column. Those potential Labour voters haven't suddenly become enthusiasts for a red-green coalition – after all, they voted for Key and English. They are people who think Ardern is doing a good job, and/or are unimpressed with National's self-destruction.

        I haven't seen any polling data, but I'd guess the swing voters' preferences would be something like:

        1) Jacinda PM 2) daylight 3) Labour without Greens 4) current coalition 5) Lab + NZF or Lab + Greens.

        Labour and the Greens aren't being stubborn or stupid. They both understand the paradox here – the best chance of Labour + Greens governing together is for Labour and the Greens to maximise their respective votes … separately.

      • Draco T Bastard 10.1.3

        Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system anyway.

        On that score I do hope that we get a Labour/Greens coalition and that Labour then supports the Greens ideas for change in the electoral system. Or even put in place the recommendations that the Key government commissioned and then ignored because they didn’t like those recommendations (of course, it appears that Labour don’t like them either as they’ve ignored them too).

      • Austringer 10.1.4

        I!m of the opinion that given the numbers and always changing numbers like picking the Lotto, that those Parties in the house all will be back, not similar in seats but all back with Labour in alone tentative grasp Governance, with other parties past friends in some soft opposition.

  11. Zuszsa 11

    I am finding the anti-green rhetoric coming from the Labour side disheartening and really short sighted.

    If the Greens don't manage the threshold, Labour may scrape through and be able to form a government on their own. But it's a risk. It is clearly where the Nats see their best chance and I expect to see them concentrating their efforts on attacking the Greens.

    I expect NZF to be gone, but if, by some miracle, they do manage to get back I think we can be sure that Winston the Queenmaker will be going with Judith.

    If Labour want to be sure of being able to form a government in a months time they really do need to be supportive of the Greens. If they want a third term then a strong Green presence in parliament will be essential.

    Lets hope the Labour strategists have strategic vision and not myopia.

    • greywarshark 11.1

      edited
      If Labour got in and the Greens didn't, what would that do to the thinking left side of the country? Their votes and hopes thrown away. How would they feel about Labour? And who would believe that our political system and any governments could still be expected to deliver anything of worth, or have any functional ability at all.

      Already a channel or stopbank was set up ad hoc on the West Coast under the impetus of need through lack of action for years; same in Christchurch, with Council talking about suing the Councillors. In Christchurch they are at boiling point at being starved of funds after bearing the tragedy of the earthquake. They are hating Labour and also National for the lack of funding for the essential service of their hospital and their need of mental health services. Auckland expanded itself so it would be a size that is able to front with other world cities and now is having giant-sized problems. Christchurch business people are trying to build another airport outside the city to serve Queenstown. NZ are going to realise how these rich bastards from overseas want to use our resources up and will demand so much, we won't have anything left for ourselves. Nelson is wanting to be the AI centre for NZ and probably the world, in line with a USA businessman's desire for inhuman-controlled planes which means a permanent armed forces presence in NZ. (High tech and the armed forces and cold war will all fit together.) NZ used to be a pimple on the side of the world, but now it is infected with all sorts of dis-ease. I don't think Labour on its own could go near to coping with the outbreaks that are going to pop up over our once fair land.

      Labour would regret not having Greens beside them to take some of the flak. Everyone would turn on Labour and be breathing down their necks, dissing everything they do wrong. National would be going into spasms of internal and external hate, the sight of them being like snakes shedding skins, and at the same time swallowing smaller snakes would be gruesome. The country would be in disarray with no-one getting anything they wanted, and a whole lot of hate and despair swilling around. The Hobbits that care about the Shire had better look lively and be wise. That story is an analogy for us.

  12. karol121 12

    AND THE HORSES ARE ON THE TRACK…

  13. georgecom 13

    another disasterous poll for National. Collins should be thinking about what she might put in her resignation/knifing speech when Luxon takes over.

    I would expect to see the Greens vote drop a few %.

    However, looking at wasted votes and NZF votes at 6%, if the Greens failed to get into parliament that would account for around 10% of the final vote not being counted in the party seats, thus very likely giving Labour a 5% odd boost in the make up of Parliament. So even if they dipped slightly below 50%, wasted votes plus other parties not cracking the 5% threshold would very likely deliver a majority Labout government on these results.

    Of interest, given this analysis, would Goldsmith make it back at number 4 on the Nats list?
    by my rough reckoning it would only take 3 or 4 of the anticipated ‘defeated’ electorates to stay Blue and Paora would be out. Making in necessary for him to win Epsom

  14. ScottGN 14

    While I support getting rid of the 5% threshold – every vote should count – we have had the threshold as part of our MMP system for nearly 25 years now, that’s 9 elections counting this year.

    You would have thought that the Greens might have had the bright idea by now, to go and find an electorate they could win and keep, to save themselves from this triennial dance with death.

    After all their compatriots in Australia, Canada and the UK have all managed to forge a constituency beachhead under a Westminster parliamentary system even though they have all been massively disadvantaged by their respective electoral systems.

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    Cannabis is part of our culture: 80% of adults have tried it sometime. Intuition tells us that legalising cannabis will increase use – science suggests that is not likely. Our Dunedin and Christchurch studies show that cannabis use peaks in our 20s. Older people are less frequent users whether it ...
    4 days ago
  • First steps: Jerry DeSilva on the evolution of bipedalism
    Yesterday morning I got up (at the rather early and unaccustomed hour of 3.30am) to listen to a webinar by paleoanthropologist Dr Jeremy DeSilva¹. Titled “First Steps”, his presentation was about the origins of bipedalism in the human lineage. It was a fascinating session & I thought I’d turn my ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    4 days ago
  • True Believers In A False God.
    Down The Rabbit Hole: "Social psychologists have found that when fearful people contemplate potential misfortunes, they tend to feel helpless and pessimistic, but when angry people contemplate the same, they feel a sense of optimism and control. And one simple way to transmute fear into anger is to perceive an evil ...
    5 days ago
  • Majority Rule Requires Majorities That Are Real.
    Fifty Percent Plus One: New Zealand’s genuine-majority-delivering two-party system endured for five elections only (1938, 1943, 1946, 1949, 1951) a period of just 16 years. Very few New Zealanders alive today can boast of participating in an election which delivered a true majority to either Labour or National. Someone who ...
    5 days ago
  • Labour super exploitation
    This is the second in the lecture series by Andy Higginbottom on superexploitation. Here he looks at Marini’s theory of labour super-exploitation and Capital ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Small asteroid to make near-miss of Earth in NZ skies tonight
    Sorry for the late notice on this one, but I only just heard myself, in common with most of the human race. A small asteroid, somewhere between the size of a truck and the size of a house in dimensions, will hurtle past the Earth tonight, dipping closer to ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    5 days ago
  • This is not what accountability looks like
    When someone commits trespass, assault with a weapon, and kidnapping, you'd expect them to be prosecuted, right? But apparently the rules are different if you wear a blue uniform: A police investigation has found officers in Northland trespassed on a man's property, then unlawfully pepper sprayed him and arrested ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Cycling: head injuries ignored because of entrenched macho culture
    Howard Hurst, University of Central Lancashire and Jack Hardwicke, University of Winchester Competitive road cycling is a demanding and unique sport. One where crashing is inevitable – especially at the professional level. While the risk of head injury is relatively low in cycling – approximately 5-13% – compared to contact ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • The coming US shitshow
    Today President Trump once again refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the US election. Coincidentally, The Atlantic has a long article on exactly what that means, from voter suppression by armed thugs in the name of "ballot security", to refusing to allow the vote ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • A moral void
    That's the only way to describe the SIS, who - like their British counterparts - decided to look the other way on child abuse: The SIS knew a young woman was being sexually abused by her father but failed to lodge a complaint with the police, effectively allowing the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • When will Goldsmith resign?
    The National Party’s campaign has gone from bad to worse with a further two large miscalculations being uncovered in their alternative fiscal plan. Firstly, National’s economic spokesperson and list MP, Paul Goldsmith, used May's Budget figures instead of last week's PREFU numbers, and came up with a whopping $4.3 billion ...
    5 days ago
  • The Adventures of Annalax: Part IX
    The initial session was a struggle. Annalax and Magni tried sorting out the details with the Isaac twins (the people pursuing the mountain trip). Annalax happened to mention his devotion to Lolth… whom the Isaacs, being ...
    5 days ago
  • This is bullshit
    On March 13, three plainclothes police officers kicked in Breonna Taylor's door under a no-knock warrant targeting another person. When a person inside reasonably assumed they were home invaders and (this being America) started shooting, they shot up the place and everyone around them - killing Taylor. Today, one of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Arctic sea ice is being increasingly melted from below by warming Atlantic water
    Tom Rippeth, Bangor University Arctic sea ice today (white) is covering a much smaller area than in 1980-2010 (orange line). National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CC BY-SA Each September, scientists like me look out for the point when the Arctic’s meagre summer fizzles out and ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • The long-term health burden of COVID-19: further justification for NZ’s elimination strategy
    Prof John D. Potter* This blog briefly surveys the emerging scientific evidence on the longer-term burden of symptoms and disease in survivors of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these symptoms point to damage in the brain and heart. These long-term harms add to the wide range of other reasons for ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    6 days ago
  • Going High, Going Low: An Assessment Of The First Leaders’ Debate.
    Uncrushed: Jacinda Ardern knew exactly what was expected of her in the first Leaders' Debate. Labour’s dominant position, three weeks out from the general election, is constructed out of the admiration and gratitude of hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders who, more often than not, vote National.  Nothing she said ...
    6 days ago
  • The smokefree policies of political parties: Do they care about people who smoke?
    George Thomson*, Nick Wilson, Janet Hoek, Andrew Waa, Richard Edwards In this time of Covid-19, helping people who smoke to quit their addiction has an even greater importance. Smokers are more vulnerable to many harmful health effects, including severe effects from the virus. Policies that support people who smoke to ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    6 days ago
  • The Fog Of Economic Policy Is Starting To Clear…
    Bryan Bruce, https://www.facebook.com/www.redsky.tv, 19 September 2020 National’s economic policy of temporary tax cuts yesterday proved, if proof be needed, that they are unapologetic neoliberals. While their claim that with more money in their pockets people will spend more might sound attractive, the reality is that tax cuts always benefit the ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    6 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38, 2020
    Highlighted article: Carbon pricing and planetary boundaries  Engström et al take what might be called a systems approach to evaluating carbon pricing, taking into a account various economic sectors affected by and affecting paying for emissions. The conclusions are overall a rare pleasant surprise— a feature predicated on cooperation.  Abstract: ...
    6 days ago
  • Humans ignite almost every wildfire that threatens homes
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: China steps up
    China has increased its climate change ambition, and set a target to be carbon-neutral by 2060: China will reach carbon neutrality before 2060 and ensure its greenhouse gas emissions peak in the next decade, Xi Jinping has told the UN general assembly. “China will scale up its intended nationally ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Humans have dealt with plenty of climate variability
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • Indigenous perspectives on unrestricted access to genomic data
    By Genomics Aotearoa researcher Maui Hudson, University of Waikato It is vital that genomics research respects genomic data and genetic heritage from indigenous communities. Genomics research is a rapidly growing field of study, and there is a strong push to make the huge amount of data being produced open ...
    SciBlogsBy Genomics Aotearoa
    6 days ago
  • Terrible luck: lockdowns on learning and youth job prospects
    What is bad luck? Bad luck is spilling spaghetti sauce down your shirt right before an important meeting. When the person in front of you gets the last seat on the bus, that’s bad luck. Bad luck is when it’s sunny outside, so you leave the house without a coat, ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • Ian Powell: Does private healthcare threaten public healthcare in New Zealand?
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    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    7 days ago
  • A rabbit-hole election debate: So do you want more avocado orchards?
    We live in strange and unusual times. It’s been a century since we’ve endured a global pandemic like this, more than half a century since we’ve had economic woes like this. So maybe we got an opening election debate for the times - because that was a strange and unusual ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    7 days ago
  • LIVE: Jacinda Ardern vs. Judith Collins, First Debate
    Tonight, The Civilian will be live-blogging the first of too many debates between Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Judith Collins, and also the last fifteen minutes of the news. Be sure to tune in from 6:45pm for regular updates, which can be accessed by refreshing this page ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Hundreds of Aucklanders arrested after illegal mass gathering on Harbour Bridge
    An enormous drive-in party, shown here, was held this morning on Auckland’s Harbour Bridge, where police were forced to intervene. Hundreds of Aucklanders were arrested this morning on public health grounds, after an apparent illegal mass gathering on the city’s Harbour Bridge. Police say hundreds of Aucklanders gathered in their ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The Looming Fight.
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    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Moving faster
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The Australian courts have had enough of refugee detention
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Friction and the Anti-lock Braking System
    Yesterday afternoon I had to call on my car’s anti-lock braking system (ABS). For reasons best known to its driver, a car pulled out of a side road right in front of me while I was driving home after work, and I needed to stop in a hurry. I rather ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    1 week ago
  • The Inside Word: New Zealand Quarantine
    There are a fair few misconceptions about conditions within New Zealand’s Quarantine Hotels. Madeline Grant’s misplaced accusations being one prominent example, though she is not alone. Today, I thought I’d share the inside word, so to speak. A friend of mine has recently returned to New Zealand from overseas, and ...
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: ASA: Let’s not talk about this
    Last week, major newspapers carried a full-page ad as part of the campaign for a "No" vote to the referendum question about supporting the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill. The ad was authorised by the SAM NZ Coalition, which takes its name from a controversial American anti-cannabis group and includes ...
    1 week ago
  • This is not kind
    New Zealand has a serious homelessness problem, due to skyrocketing rents and a lack of state houses. One of the ways we stick a band-aid on it is to put people up in motels. Previously, they were charged full commercial rates, saddled with odious debt due to the government's failure ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Wokies are the establishment
    by Ani O’Brien In the absence of a better word with which to refer to the rabid activists who claim progressivism while demanding adherence to an increasingly prescriptive set of political beliefs, I call them “woke”. With its roots in Black American slang, the term originally denoted a person or ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • How to strengthen the post-isolation Covid rules
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    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    1 week ago
  • Neuralink and You: A Human-AI Symbiosis
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Liam Hehir: Our obsession with American politics
    Many New Zealanders take a strong interest in US politics, with the death of Supreme Court Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg being the latest example. Liam Hehir wonders if it very wise for New Zealanders to get so worked about it.   Many politically engaged New Zealanders are now furiously ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • COVID: Back to Level 1
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    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Climate injustice
    Who's causing our skyrocketing emissions? As with most of our other problems, It's the rich: The wealthiest 1% of the world’s population were responsible for the emission of more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the poorer half of the world from 1990 to 2015, according to new ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Good riddance
    The border closure and resulting lack of foreign slave-workers is driving the fishing industry out of business: One fishing company is effectively out of business while others are bracing for large financial hits as the deepwater New Zealand industry, unable to get skilled foreign workers into the country, have ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #38
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... The tipping points at the heart of the climate crisis Many parts of the Earth’s climate system have been destabilised by ...
    1 week ago
  • Anyone for Collins?
    In the absence of national public opinion polls, we have had to make do in recent weeks with other guides to voter intentions. Those guides, such as the Auckland Central poll, the incidence of google enquiries and the responses to Vote Compass questions, have suggested, not unexpectedly, that Labour is ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • Crusher’s fiscal malfunction
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    1 week ago
  • Much of the commentariat’s reporting of the most recent GDP figure was misleading and unhelpful. The prize for the stupidest remark about the GDP figure for second quarter 2020 (2020Q2) released on Thursday (17 Sept) goes to Judith Collins, whose response to Grant Robertson’s comments indicated she did not ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • Love and Hate as Complementary Revolutionary Acts
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    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 13, 2020 through Sat, Sep 19, 2020 Editor's Choice Get to Net-Zero by Mid-Century? Even Some Global Oil and Gas Giants Think it Can Be Done A report by a ...
    1 week ago
  • Tax cuts for all!!! (except you, you, and you)
    With the National Party this week announcing a new policy of tax cuts to spice up the election campagin. MyThinks went along to the launch and afterwards we spoke to the party’s finance spokesperson Paul “Golden Touch” Goldsmith. MT: Thanks for speaking to us Mr Goldsmith. PG: No. Thank you. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    2 weeks ago
  • Great Waves Washing Over New Zealand
    Always to islanders danger Is what comes over the seas ‘Landfall in Unknown Seas’ (Allen Curnow)Six economic issues external to New Zealand, which will greatly impact upon us. 1.         The Diminishing Global Dominance of the US. Since 1941 America has dominated the world economically and politically. Probably it could ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand has role to play in resolving crisis on ‘geopolitical fault line’, Helen Clark says
    By Geoffrey Miller New Zealand should continue to champion human rights in Belarus amidst an ongoing crackdown on protests by the country’s regime, former Prime Minister Helen Clark says. Protests in the country often referred to as ‘Europe’s last dictatorship’ erupted after the country’s disputed presidential elections on August 9 ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    2 weeks ago
  • Euthanasia referendum: How to cut through the emotions
    Jacqui Maguire, registered clinical psychologist This podcast episode highlights how difficult it is to have effective conversations about euthanasia due to how polarised people’s views are. I’m a clinical psychologist, with a passion for science communication. In early 2020 I founded the podcast Mind Brew, with an aim to make psychological ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago

  • Pasifika churches gain from PGF funding
    Pasifika churches around the country will receive a total of nearly $10 million in government funding for renovations and improvements which will improve facilities for the communities they serve and create jobs, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Pacific Peoples Minister Aupito William Sio have announced. The funding will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • Job numbers up in August
    New data from Stats NZ today shows a rise of more than 9,000 filled jobs from July – driven mostly by the education and training sector, Grant Robertson says. Filled jobs were up 9,147 to 2.2 million in August 2020 compared with July – with 7,409 of those in education ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Māori development receives funding
    Māori development projects across the country will receive a total of $18.8 million from the Provincial Growth Fund that will create infrastructure and permanent jobs, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “These projects will support economic development in Northland, Bay of Plenty, Tairawhiti, Manawatū-Whanganui, Waikato and Southland to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Hand-up for owners of earthquake-prone units
    From today, owner-occupiers of unit and apartments living in earthquake-prone buildings can apply for financial support to fix their homes, Minister for Building and Construction Jenny Salesa says. The Residential Earthquake-Prone Building Financial Assistance Scheme will help unit owners facing financial hardship over earthquake strengthening costs. “We understand how complicated ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • PGF backing successful Māori enterprise
    Whanganui will benefit from a Provincial Growth Fund investment in a local food-processing company which will help the company increase production and create jobs, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. Kii Tahi Ltd, which is owned by South Taranaki iwi Ngaa Rauru Kiitahi, will receive a Provincial Growth Fund ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Hokitika Landmark earmarked for $22m restoration
    Seddon House in Hokitika, once a hub for government on the West Coast, has been earmarked for government use once again. “Today we’re announcing a $22 million investment from the Government’s $3 billion infrastructure fund for shovel ready projects for the purchase and restoration of Seddon House in the heart of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Town halls and war memorials in PGF renovation programme
    Town halls, war memorials and other community landmarks across the country will be renovated thanks to grants totalling just under $12.4 million from the Provincial Growth Fund. Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says more than 1000 jobs are expected to be created during the renovation programme. “Town halls, other ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister of Foreign Affairs makes two diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced two new diplomatic appointments: •         Michael Appleton as New Zealand’s first resident High Commissioner to Sri Lanka. •        Tredene Dobson as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to Viet Nam.  Sri Lanka “New Zealand is opening a post in Colombo in 2021 because we are ready ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ’s most prestigious conservation award – Loder Cup presented to Graeme Atkins
    The Minister of Conservation Minister, Eugenie Sage, today presented Aotearoa New Zealand’s most prestigious conservation award, the Loder Cup, to the 2020 winner Graeme Atkins while in Gisborne/Tūranga-nui-a-Kiwa. “Graeme Atkins of Ngāti Porou is a Department of Conservation ranger whose contribution to conservation goes well above and beyond his employment,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early help for whānau who need extra support
    The Government is investing in a new, whānau-centred early intervention prototype designed to strengthen families and improve the safety and wellbeing of children. The new programme, Ngā Tini Whetū, is a collaboration between Oranga Tamariki, Te Puni Kōkiri, ACC and the Whānau Ora Commissioning Agency (WOCA) and was announced today ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Parliament to install solar and cut carbon
    Parliament is leading by example by taking action to cut its carbon footprint by installing solar and improving energy efficiency, the Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw said today. The Minister confirmed that Parliamentary Services will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to install solar PV and LED ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Tuvalu Language Week theme promotes community resilience in the face of COVID-19
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says the 2020 Tuvalu Language Week theme of “Fakatili Te Kiloga Fou” which means “Navigating the changing environment” is a call on all Pacific peoples to be strong and resilient in the face of COVID-19. “This theme is a reminder to us ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • International sport back up and running in New Zealand
    The Government is welcoming today’s announcement that the West Indies and Pakistan cricket teams will tour New Zealand this summer.  “A lot of hard work has been undertaken by sports officials including New Zealand Cricket, Netball New Zealand and government officials to ensure that international sport can return safely to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • 1BT funds for Northland forest taonga
    Northland’s indigenous tree canopy is set to grow for the benefit of mana whenua and the wider community thanks to nearly $2 million in One Billion Trees funding, Forestry Minister Shane Jones announced today. Te Komanga Marae Trust has received more than $1.54 million to restore and enhance the native ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Better health care for West Coasters as Te Nikau Hospital officially opened
    The Government has delivered a new hospital for Greymouth and is starting work on a much needed new health centre in Westport, ensuring local communities will benefit from better access to high quality integrated health services. Today, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate Health Minister Peeni Henare officially open Te ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government backing local with PGF loan
    A West Coast distillery will benefit from a Provincial Growth Fund investment that will enable it to expand its operations and create jobs in the town of Reefton, Rural Communities Minister Damien O’Connor and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones have announced. The Reefton Distilling Co will receive a $928,000 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Primary sector exports and jobs up again
    Primary sector exports and jobs are up again, demonstrating the sector’s underlying strength amid the COVID-19 global pandemic and US-China trade war, and supporting New Zealand’s economic recovery. Stats NZ today reported New Zealand’s merchandise exports in August were up 8.6% on a year ago, driven by an increase in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Clean energy future for more schools
    Schools across Aotearoa New Zealand will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. The Minister has allocated $50 million from the Clean Powered Public Service Fund to replace, or convert, coal boilers in schools with clean ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Building business strength with digital tools
    New training and tools for digital commerce will give small businesses, especially in the tourism sector, the support they need to adapt and innovate in a COVID world. Tourism Minister Kelvin Davis and Small Business Minister Stuart Nash have announced details of how $20 million digital capability funding set aside ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New pest lures to protect nature
    The Department of Conservation (DOC) is investing $1.4 million to develop new predator lures that would be game-changers for trapping and surveillance towards a predator-free Aotearoa, the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage, announced in Christchurch today. The proposal is to develop long-life lures attractive to a range of predators—rats, mustelids ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Support for innovative Pacific education responses to COVID-19 needs
    Supporting new and creative Pacific education practices as part of our COVID-19 response and recovery is the focus of a new $28.5 million Pacific Education Innovation Fund announced today by Associate Minister of Education Jenny Salesa.  “There is already an incredible amount of innovative and creative work going on in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Eligibility expanded for COVID-19 leave support
    The expanded scheme will cover: People who have COVID-19 like symptoms and meet the Ministry of Health’s criteria, and need to self-isolate while awaiting the results of a COVID-19 test. People who are directed to self-isolate by a Medical Officer of Health or their delegate or on advice of their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Seasonal work visa available to more people
    The Government is putting in place a range of immigration policy changes to help fill labour shortages in key industries while ensuring New Zealanders, who have lost jobs due to COVID-19, have the chance to find new employment. “Two key sectors we are moving to help are horticulture and wine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More border exceptions for critical roles
    The Government has established class exceptions for border entry for a limited number of veterinarians, deep sea fishing crew, as well as agricultural and horticultural machinery operators. “Tight border restrictions remain the backbone of the Government’s border strategy to protect New Zealand against COVID-19 and ensure New Zealand citizens and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Crown will not appeal Dodds v Southern Response decision
    The Crown will not appeal the Court of Appeal decision in the Dodds v Southern Response case, Grant Robertson announced today. “Southern Response will be paying the damages awarded by the Court to Mr and Mrs Dodds shortly. The Crown was already meeting their legal costs for this appeal. “The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Crucial PGF investments for Northland
    The Provincial Growth Fund is investing nearly $30 million in a diverse range of projects that will create immediate and long-term jobs and lift economic and social outcomes for Northland and its people. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones made the announcement today in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $27million investment in global vaccine facility
    The Coalition Government has committed to invest $27 million in COVID-19 vaccine development through the global COVAX Facility, Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “The COVAX Facility is a key part of our COVID-19 Vaccine Strategy to obtain safe and effective vaccines. It allows us to invest in a high-quality, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government backing Māori landowners
    The Government will provide up to $1.69 million through the One Billion Trees programme to Māori landowners to make their whenua more productive through the planting of forests, both native and exotic, and improve economic and environmental outcomes, Forestry Minister Shane Jones has announced. “Around 1.5 million ha of land ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New tools to make nature more accessible
    People planning to head outdoors now have a resource that lets them know how accessible an area is for people with varying levels of mobility, Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage announced today. The Halberg Foundation, Sensibel, and the Department of Conservation (DOC) have launched Accessibel, a new tool which helps ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • PGF makes Māori history more accessible
    One of the most significant battle sites of the 1860s Land Wars will receive $2.96 million from the Provincial Growth Fund to improve the site and help tell the New Zealand story to visitors, Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones have announced. Nanaia Mahuta ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Making it official: The journey of te reo Māori | Kia whakapūmautia: Ngā piki me ngā heke o te r...
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