Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020

Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, September 2nd, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, MMP, national, nz first - Tags: , , , ,

A trend of 2020 polling resultsHi all, sorry about missing the post for the previous Roy Morgan poll– I’ve been having connection problems for a wee bit over a month that just hit at the wrong time for me to be able to write a post for that one, and my phone’s internet wasn’t stable enough to send off a post unfortunately, even though I had it drafted. I did manage to get the results onto Twitter if you want to see them. Was intending to catch up yesterday or today and post my draft with images and proper metadata, but we’ve been overrun by the new Roy Morgan results, so why don’t we skip ahead straight to the new one.

It looks like just under a month out from the delayed election date, we’re finally getting some narrowing of the poll results, with Labour under 50% for the first time since March, but still within shooting distance of a majority government- the line for this varies based on how much of the party vote is given to parties that don’t enter Parliament, but the plurality winner (largest result winner, so in 2017 this was National) of the party vote getting below 47% is usually a pretty safe line to call it an expected minority government.

A half-pie chart of expected results from this poll.As Roy Morgan doesn’t run a seat calculation on their results, I’ve done that for you on the left. This represents the single most likely result from this poll, if we trust its methodology. As usual, I should point out that although the Roy Morgan was our second most reliable poll in 2017, it consistently overpolls the Greens compared to the other two polls, and is likely overestimating their support significantly here. This difference has become more dramatic in 2020 polling, and while it’s possible Roy Morgan is the one that’s more accurate about the Greens, I disagree with that idea based on past performance. That said, despite some people’s dismissal of the Roy Morgan poll, it is the only poll that sticks to a regular timeline, and it was actually more accurate than Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) overall, when you compare it to the closest timed Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election, meaning it arguably comes in second of the three big polls. Roy Morgan, like Colmar Brunton, polls using phone cold-calling.

A pie chart of expected government types from this pollOnto the party vote- at 48%, Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government- there is some chance their actual support falls below that magic margin to get a majority government, so the narrowing has brought us back into interesting territory here again. Note that the chance for a Labour-Green government just relies on the Greens being over threshold, (which is 100% based on the party vote support given, and would be even if we assume RM is over-reporting on the Greens by a full 4 points) not on their actual level of support. Any over-threshold result in those 22.4% of simulations gives us a Labour-Green government, showing that Green support is critical right now if we want a result that requires Labour to be accountable to a coalition partner. National is clearly hoping it can knock the Greens under threshold to move the overton window a bit further right based on recent attempts to further outrage over the Green School decision, and there have been questions of whether New Zealand First is leaking on the issue, too.

In this analysis, ACT were under threshold in 9.2% of simulations, and New Zealand first in 95.6%, meaning they are extremely likely to be over and under, respectively, when the trend is taken into account. Based on actual polling data, I do not consider a Northland win for Shane Jones worth considering at this point, meaning NZF must be over threshold to win seats.

A trendline of party vote support modelling.The trend is still very solidly left-wing at the moment, with only a few blips based on outlier polls even bringing National into significant contention during Ardern’s entire time governing. We’ll see if things close any further for National during the remaining month of the campaign, but at this stage I’m personally more concerned about the composition of the expected left-wing government. While I’m happy to have New Zealand First gone under current polling, I consider it a very good thing we’ve not yet seen a majority government under MMP.

Roy Morgan don’t disclose the exact fieldwork dates on their poll, but do tell us notable recent events that are covered:

“Interviewing for this survey in August encompassed the period including the enforcement of Stage 3 restrictions across Auckland following the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the city and the decision to postpone the election by four weeks.”

Based on this, I think it likely that this result excludes the recent Green School controversy, and we should certainly wait for the next Reid Research (Newshub) or Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) poll to inform where we think the Greens are at anyway.

On individual MPs, here’s how the party lists look when I run this result through my model for electorate shifts: (List continues in order until last winner)

National
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Judith Collins Papakura Electorate
2 Gerry Brownlee Ilam Electorate
3 Paul Goldsmith Epsom List
4 Simon Bridges Tauranga Electorate
5 Shane Reti Whangārei Electorate
6 Todd McClay Rotorua Electorate
7 Chris Bishop Hutt South List
8 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty Electorate
9 Louise Upston Taupō Electorate
10 Scott Simpson Coromandel Electorate
11 David Bennett Hamilton East Electorate
12 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin List
13 Nicola Willis Wellington Central Defeated
14 Jacqui Dean Waitaki Electorate
15 Mark Mitchell Whangaparāoa Electorate
16 Melissa Lee Mt Albert Defeated
17 Andrew Bayly Port Waikato Electorate
18 Nick Smith Nelson Defeated
19 Maureen Pugh List No Seat
20 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country Electorate
21 Harete Hipango Whanganui Defeated
22 Johnathan Young New Plymouth Electorate
23 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West Electorate
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Defeated
25 Paulo Garcia List No Seat
26 Nancy Lu List No Seat
27 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill Defeated
28 Agnes Loheni List No Seat
29 Dale Stephens Christchurch Central Defeated
30 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatū Defeated
31 Matt Doocey Waimakariri Electorate
32 Stuart Smith Kaikōura Electorate
33 Lawrence Yule Tukituki Defeated
34 Denise Lee Maungakiekie Defeated
35 Simon O’Connor Tāmaki Electorate
36 Brett Hudson Ōhariu Defeated
37 Simeon Brown Pakuranga Electorate
38 Ian McKelvie Rangitīkei Electorate
39 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays Electorate
40 Matt King Northland Electorate
41 Chris Penk Kaipara ki Mahurangi Electorate
42 Tim Van de Molen Waikato Electorate
43 Dan Bidois Northcote Electorate
44 Jo Hayes Mana Defeated
45 Katie Nimon Napier Defeated
46 Catherine Chu Banks Peninsula Defeated
47 Hamish Campbell Wigram Defeated
48 David Patterson Rongotai Defeated
49 Lisa Whyte New Lynn Defeated
50 Rima Nakhle Takanini Defeated
51 Liam Kernaghan Taieri Defeated
52 Bala Beeram Kelston Defeated
53 Lincoln Platt Christchurch East Defeated
54 William Wood Palmerston North Defeated
55 Nuwi Samarakone Manurewa Defeated
56 Mark Crofskey Remutaka Defeated
57 Jake Bezzant Upper Harbour Electorate
58 Mike Butterick Wairarapa Defeated
59 Tim Costley Ōtaki Electorate
60 Nicola Grigg Selwyn Electorate
61 Christopher Luxon Botany Electorate
62 Joseph Mooney Southland Electorate
63 Penny Simmonds Invercargill Electorate
64 Tania Tapsell East Coast Defeated
65 Simon Watts North Shore Electorate

 

Labour
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert Electorate
2 Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau Electorate
3 Grant Robertson Wellington Central Electorate
4 Phil Twyford Te Atatū Electorate
5 Megan Woods Wigram Electorate
6 Chris Hipkins Remutaka Electorate
7 Andrew Little List List
8 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston Electorate
9 David Parker List List
10  Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato Electorate
11  Trevor Mallard List List
12  Stuart Nash Napier Electorate
13  Jenny Salesa Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Electorate
14  Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman Electorate
15  Kris Faafoi List List
16  David Clark Dunedin Electorate
17  Ayesha Verrall List List
18  Peeni Henare Tāmaki Makaurau Electorate
19  Willie Jackson List List
20  Aupito William Sio List List
21  Poto Williams Christchurch East Electorate
22  Vanushi Walters List List
23  Michael Wood Mt Roskill Electorate
24  Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru Electorate
25  Kiri Allan East Coast Electorate
26  Kieran McAnulty Wairarapa Electorate
27  Louisa Wall List List
28  Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Electorate
29  Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga Electorate
30  Camilla Belich Epsom List
31  Priyanca Radhakrishnan Maungakiekie Electorate
32  Jan Tinetti Tauranga List
33  Deborah Russell New Lynn Electorate
34  Marja Lubeck Kaipara ki Mahurangi List
35  Angie Warren-Clark Bay of Plenty List
36  Willow-Jean Prime Northland List
37  Tamati Coffey Waiariki Electorate
38  Naisi Chen Botany List
39  Jo Luxton Rangitata List
40  Jamie Strange Hamilton East List
41  Liz Craig Invercargill List
42  Ibrahim Omer List List
43  Duncan Webb Christchurch Central Electorate
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki List List
45  Ginny Andersen Hutt South Electorate
46  Rachel Brooking List List
47  Paul Eagle Rongotai Electorate
48  Helen White Auckland Central Electorate
49  Barbara Edmonds Mana Electorate
50  Angela Roberts Taranaki-King Country List
51  Shanan Halbert Northcote Defeated
52  Neru Leavasa Takanini Electorate
53  Tracey McLellan Banks Peninsula Electorate
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene List No Seat
55  Steph Lewis Whanganui Electorate
56  Dan Rosewarne Waimakariri Defeated
57  Rachel Boyack Nelson Electorate
58  Arena Williams Manurewa Electorate
59  Ingrid Leary Taieri Electorate
 Greg O’Connor Ōhariu Electorate
Anna Lorck Tukituki Electorate

 

Green
No. Name
1 Marama Davidson
2 James Shaw
3 Chlöe Swarbrick
4 Julie Anne Genter
5 Jan Logie
6 Eugenie Sage
7 Golriz Ghahraman
8 Teanau Tuiono
9 Elizabeth Kerekere
10 Ricardo Menéndez March
11 Steve Abel
12 Teall Crossen
13 Scott Willis
14 Kyle Macdonald
15 Lourdes Vano

(Remember as above, this result likely inflates the Green vote)

ACT
No. Name
1 David Seymour (Epsom)
2 Brooke van Velden
3 Nicole McKee
4 Chris Baillie
5 Simon Court
6 James McDowall
7 Karen Chhour
8 Mark Cameron

30 comments on “Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020 ”

  1. Peter 1

    " Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government."

    Labour was never guaranteed a majority government. There may have been polls which indicated they could be a majority government.

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1

      The previous recent polls were strong enough that statistically they predicted a guaranteed Labour majority government if the election were held at that time period. I think the implication of what I’m saying is very clear there.

  2. weka 2

    what's your thinking on whether Peters can rally the NZF vote at the last minute?

  3. Patricia Bremner 3

    Thank you Mathew, we just want Labour and the Greens in, and that looks hopeful.

    People have short memories sadly.

  4. Robert Guyton 4

    Meh…

  5. We can only hope Labour are up for this. I’m In TukiTuki the electorate. The river of the same name is full of the same crap as the current MP

    • NZJester 5.1

      Don't forget to the current MP was in charge as Mayor when Nat voter filled Havelock North got a bad case of bacteria in their water, but the Nat voters some how still voted for him.

      He jumped ship to be a MP as he knew he would likely never have got their vote as Mayor, but that Nat voter are stupid enough to still vote for him as their MP even after the big stuff up under his management.

  6. peterh 6

    Even if Lab got 52% Greens 6% I think Lab would take the greens with them

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.1

      A majority government where Labour invests in possibly needing the Greens again in the future looks very different to a minority government where Labour has no choice but to secure the Greens' support.

  7. Treetop 7

    This poll reflects community transmission of Covid – 19 and an additional lockdown at level 3 in Auckland.

    The question which will be on a voter's mind is.

    Which main political party will handle the Covid transmission and economic fallout better?

  8. Kiwibarnes 8

    WAIT- what happened to Palmerston North??? You don't think Tangi Utikere will win for Labour? He's taking over ILG's seat with a 6000+ majority…

    • Matthew Whitehead 8.1

      Nah, that's just a matter of me not having added him to the list of electorate-only candidates for Labour after ILG's resignation. I've confirmed he's running and done that for future list calcs, so he would technically bump Angela Roberts out of Parliament given I have Labour winning the electorate.

  9. Treetop 9

    Reply to @7.1

    Which main political party do I trust to handle Covid – 19 transmission and the economic fallout better?

  10. greywarshark 10

    I think that smart Labour thinking would be to enable the Greens to get an electorate seat, and lock them into being in Parliament definitely. We lefties don't want a wasted vote, and if Labour went on its snooty and superior way of being pure and going it alone, we wouldn't forget that second blow at our democracy they will have delivered.

    I don't know if the brains of Labour strategists put the above matters in the top priority when making their plans. But let's hope I am just a Doubting Thomas, all gloomy and inclined to think the worst. It would be good to get a good rollicking and kick in the butt when reason and sensible tactics prevail and there is practical and pragmatic movement from Labour as referred to above. I would endure punishment with good grace.

    If they get the Greens in for sure that would show Labour doing their best to facilitate left voters who are basically the thinking voters, and the for-NZ voters, and those for a good-sharing and thriving democracy voters, who would then have a chance to restore a reality that people can be pleased to observe in New Zealand. At present, and I feel I speak for most of those in the bloc described above, we do not feel pleased with how things are. We are haggard and anxious about our situation and the pathological fails we have endured for so long, so Labour you owe all of us, to first ensure that Greens are in Parliament, and second to get a workable Coalition with them.

    To be coarse, pull finger! Plain speaking is necessary to illustrate the seriousness of the position in NZ. You must commit to serving NZ citizens' interests, honestly make promises that you can keep, don't rely on BS from business people sucking off the government teat. The writers in Star Wars had Yoda saying the applicable directive, "No! Try not. Do… Or do not. There is no try."

    • Matthew Whitehead 10.1

      You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal.

      Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system anyway.

      If you want the Greens in, I'd say it's up to you to party vote accordingly, it's not up to Labour.

      (Also, I’ve seen nothing pre-Green School issue that suggested Greens were under threshold)

      • greywarshark 10.1.1

        I'm saying that Labour should want the Greens in. Instead of being so blatantly full of hubris, and self-centred; we stand alone! Let them replace the hubris with humble – they owe the workers; the growing lower-income, under-employed, precariat strata for the damage they have caused to the inclusive economy, and setting up a two-tier inflation regime. Low here, and who cares for the housing sector. They have the mass power, we invested in them with our votes, and now we want a bit of dividend. Let them flex their muscle; they are the big boys, I'm just a teeny cog.

        What about the threshhold then – what is your feeling that it should be at four percent? That way it eases matters a little for parties which genuinely want to be part of a good democracy. I think lower than that – there be dragons.

        • Sacha 10.1.1.1

          I haven't seen the Greens asking for a deal. Might be seen as reducing their independence (more).

      • observer 10.1.2

        "You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal."

        Amen.

        Every discussion on this issue has people making simplistic assumptions without addressing this really basic point: how does it affect the nationwide vote that actually decides elections?

        We can't just add (e.g.) 5 to 50 and assume all those votes are locked in regardless. We know that around 12-15% of voters are people who ticked National last time, but are currently in Labour's column. Those potential Labour voters haven't suddenly become enthusiasts for a red-green coalition – after all, they voted for Key and English. They are people who think Ardern is doing a good job, and/or are unimpressed with National's self-destruction.

        I haven't seen any polling data, but I'd guess the swing voters' preferences would be something like:

        1) Jacinda PM 2) daylight 3) Labour without Greens 4) current coalition 5) Lab + NZF or Lab + Greens.

        Labour and the Greens aren't being stubborn or stupid. They both understand the paradox here – the best chance of Labour + Greens governing together is for Labour and the Greens to maximise their respective votes … separately.

      • Draco T Bastard 10.1.3

        Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system anyway.

        On that score I do hope that we get a Labour/Greens coalition and that Labour then supports the Greens ideas for change in the electoral system. Or even put in place the recommendations that the Key government commissioned and then ignored because they didn’t like those recommendations (of course, it appears that Labour don’t like them either as they’ve ignored them too).

      • Austringer 10.1.4

        I!m of the opinion that given the numbers and always changing numbers like picking the Lotto, that those Parties in the house all will be back, not similar in seats but all back with Labour in alone tentative grasp Governance, with other parties past friends in some soft opposition.

  11. Zuszsa 11

    I am finding the anti-green rhetoric coming from the Labour side disheartening and really short sighted.

    If the Greens don't manage the threshold, Labour may scrape through and be able to form a government on their own. But it's a risk. It is clearly where the Nats see their best chance and I expect to see them concentrating their efforts on attacking the Greens.

    I expect NZF to be gone, but if, by some miracle, they do manage to get back I think we can be sure that Winston the Queenmaker will be going with Judith.

    If Labour want to be sure of being able to form a government in a months time they really do need to be supportive of the Greens. If they want a third term then a strong Green presence in parliament will be essential.

    Lets hope the Labour strategists have strategic vision and not myopia.

    • greywarshark 11.1

      edited
      If Labour got in and the Greens didn't, what would that do to the thinking left side of the country? Their votes and hopes thrown away. How would they feel about Labour? And who would believe that our political system and any governments could still be expected to deliver anything of worth, or have any functional ability at all.

      Already a channel or stopbank was set up ad hoc on the West Coast under the impetus of need through lack of action for years; same in Christchurch, with Council talking about suing the Councillors. In Christchurch they are at boiling point at being starved of funds after bearing the tragedy of the earthquake. They are hating Labour and also National for the lack of funding for the essential service of their hospital and their need of mental health services. Auckland expanded itself so it would be a size that is able to front with other world cities and now is having giant-sized problems. Christchurch business people are trying to build another airport outside the city to serve Queenstown. NZ are going to realise how these rich bastards from overseas want to use our resources up and will demand so much, we won't have anything left for ourselves. Nelson is wanting to be the AI centre for NZ and probably the world, in line with a USA businessman's desire for inhuman-controlled planes which means a permanent armed forces presence in NZ. (High tech and the armed forces and cold war will all fit together.) NZ used to be a pimple on the side of the world, but now it is infected with all sorts of dis-ease. I don't think Labour on its own could go near to coping with the outbreaks that are going to pop up over our once fair land.

      Labour would regret not having Greens beside them to take some of the flak. Everyone would turn on Labour and be breathing down their necks, dissing everything they do wrong. National would be going into spasms of internal and external hate, the sight of them being like snakes shedding skins, and at the same time swallowing smaller snakes would be gruesome. The country would be in disarray with no-one getting anything they wanted, and a whole lot of hate and despair swilling around. The Hobbits that care about the Shire had better look lively and be wise. That story is an analogy for us.

  12. karol121 12

    AND THE HORSES ARE ON THE TRACK…

  13. georgecom 13

    another disasterous poll for National. Collins should be thinking about what she might put in her resignation/knifing speech when Luxon takes over.

    I would expect to see the Greens vote drop a few %.

    However, looking at wasted votes and NZF votes at 6%, if the Greens failed to get into parliament that would account for around 10% of the final vote not being counted in the party seats, thus very likely giving Labour a 5% odd boost in the make up of Parliament. So even if they dipped slightly below 50%, wasted votes plus other parties not cracking the 5% threshold would very likely deliver a majority Labout government on these results.

    Of interest, given this analysis, would Goldsmith make it back at number 4 on the Nats list?
    by my rough reckoning it would only take 3 or 4 of the anticipated ‘defeated’ electorates to stay Blue and Paora would be out. Making in necessary for him to win Epsom

  14. ScottGN 14

    While I support getting rid of the 5% threshold – every vote should count – we have had the threshold as part of our MMP system for nearly 25 years now, that’s 9 elections counting this year.

    You would have thought that the Greens might have had the bright idea by now, to go and find an electorate they could win and keep, to save themselves from this triennial dance with death.

    After all their compatriots in Australia, Canada and the UK have all managed to forge a constituency beachhead under a Westminster parliamentary system even though they have all been massively disadvantaged by their respective electoral systems.

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     A Maori Party post on Instagram invited party followers to ….  Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti, Join the REVOLUTION! & make a stand!  Nationwide Action Day, All details in tiles swipe to see locations.  • This is our 1st hit out and tomorrow Tuesday the 5th is the opening ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Top 10 for Tuesday, December 4
    The RBNZ governor is citing high net migration and profit-led inflation as factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Tuesday, December 5, including:Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says high net migration and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Nicola Willis' 'show me the money' moment
    Willis has accused labour of “economic vandalism’, while Robertson described her comments as a “desperate diversion from somebody who can't make their tax package add up”. There will now be an intense focus on December 20 to see whether her hyperbole is backed up by true surprises. Photo montage: Lynn ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • CRL costs money but also provides huge benefits
    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    2 days ago
  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    2 days ago
  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    3 days ago
  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    3 days ago
  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    3 days ago
  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    3 days ago
  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • The Song of Saqua: Volume III
    Time to revisit something I haven’t covered in a while: the D&D campaign, with Saqua the aquatic half-vampire. Last seen in July: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/07/27/the-song-of-saqua-volume-ii/ The delay is understandable, once one realises that the interim saw our DM come down with a life-threatening medical situation. They have since survived to make ...
    3 days ago
  • Chris Bishop: Smokin’
    Yes. Correct. It was an election result. And now we are the elected government. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    4 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 26, 2023 thru Dec 2, 2023. Story of the Week CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more ...
    4 days ago
  • Affirmative Action.
    Affirmative Action was a key theme at this election, although I don’t recall anyone using those particular words during the campaign.They’re positive words, and the way the topic was talked about was anything but. It certainly wasn’t a campaign of saying that Affirmative Action was a good thing, but that, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • 100 days of something
    It was at the end of the Foxton straights, at the end of 1978, at 100km/h, that someone tried to grab me from behind on my Yamaha.They seemed to be yanking my backpack. My first thought was outrage. My second was: but how? Where have they come from? And my ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Look who’s stepped up to champion Winston
    There’s no news to be gleaned from the government’s official website today  – it contains nothing more than the message about the site being under maintenance. The time this maintenance job is taking and the costs being incurred have us musing on the government’s commitment to an assault on inflation. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • What's The Story?
    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    5 days ago
  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • While we wait patiently, our new Minister of Education is up and going with a 100-day action plan
    Sorry to say, the government’s official website is still out of action. When Point of Order paid its daily visit, the message was the same as it has been for the past week: Site under maintenance Beehive.govt.nz is currently under maintenance. We will be back shortly. Thank you for your ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Hysterical bullshit
    Radio NZ reports: Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has accused the new government of “deliberate .. systemic genocide” over its policies to roll back the smokefree policy and the Māori Health Authority. The left love hysterical language. If you oppose racial quotas in laws, you are a racist. And now if you sack ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2023
    Open access notables From this week's government/NGO section, longitudinal data is gold and Leisorowitz, Maibachi et al. continue to mine ore from the US public with Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023: Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered ...
    6 days ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: It wasn’t just $55 million
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Winston Peters reckons media outlets were bribed by the $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund. He is not the first to make such an accusation. Last year, the Platform outlined conditions media signed up to in return for funds from the PJIF: . . . ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 1-December-2023
    Wow, it’s December already, and it’s a Friday. So here are few things that caught our attention recently. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt covered the new government’s coalition agreements and what they mean for transport. On Tuesday Matt looked at AT’s plans for fare increases ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    6 days ago
  • Shane MacGowan Is Gone.
    Late 1996, The Dogs Bollix, Tamaki Makaurau.I’m at the front of the bar yelling my order to the bartender, jostling with other thirsty punters on a Friday night, keen to piss their wages up against a wall letting loose. The black stuff, long luscious pints of creamy goodness. Back down ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 1
    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    6 days ago
  • Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies.The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. They also describe the processes of the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    7 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    7 days ago
  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    7 days ago
  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    1 week ago
  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Minister sets expectations of Commissioner
    Today I met with Police Commissioner Andrew Coster to set out my expectations, which he has agreed to, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Under section 16(1) of the Policing Act 2008, the Minister can expect the Police Commissioner to deliver on the Government’s direction and priorities, as now outlined in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • New Zealand needs a strong and stable ETS
    New Zealand needs a strong and stable Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that is well placed for the future, after emission units failed to sell for the fourth and final auction of the year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  At today’s auction, 15 million New Zealand units (NZUs) – each ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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