Written By:
lprent - Date published:
6:54 am, November 8th, 2020 - 92 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, International, us politics -
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At last. All of the main US media organisations have now called the election for for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris – including Fox News. Pennsylvania with its 20 electorate votes went past the 0.5% to Biden and the lead shows no signs of reducing.
It appears that Arizona and Nevada are also being called the same way. With the Georgia also looking to fall to Biden as well, the electoral college vote looks to be over 300 – well above the 270 required.
Donald Trump, predictably, is starting to emulate the Hitler bunker where an ageing despot retreats into fantasy and starts calling for dead armies to rescue his dreams.
Time to send in the doctors. https://t.co/FIuUyQLqYh
— David Farrar (@dpfdpf) November 6, 2020
While I’m sure that are going to be continued attempts to try to prise changes in the courts, so far the legal mud being spread by the Republican lawyers is being rejected. It is likely to continue to be so. That is because in the US, mail-in and early votes are legal in the states that allow them. In the wake of Covid-19, that is now most states. The states are in charge of how they organise their elections, and the Federal government doesn’t really have much of a say in the hands-on organisation of the presidential election.
There is a run off of the two Senate seats in Georgia on January 5th that will determine the partisan control of the Senate.
I’m sure that some will view this as tasteless. However it pretty well covers my views on how I think that Donald Trump will handle his eviction.
Incidentally, it is good the USA has finally caught up with the rest of the civilised world and elected a female politician to the second highest office in their society. They will find that they should have done elected women to their higher offices a lot earlier.
She looks like a damn good backup as well.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Hat tip to Ad who linked to this in Open Mike – SNL?
It certainly looks and sounds like Trump. Imagine what he is like in the White House around adults if he behaves like in the video around children.
I'm actually seriously worried about the next eleven weeks. We know he has no boundaries and zero impulse control and no particular known future project to direct his energy towards, and a vengeful streak that matches his ego.
On the other hand, maybe he'll just take the opportunity to catch up on all the golfing he hasn't had time for because he's been working so hard. /
I doubt they're going to let that clown have access to the red button now.
Or is it all the small things he can do, which he's been doing for the past four years? I do expect him to try burn his bridges. But so does everyone else.
I'm really torn about which way it might go. Such an unstable situation.
On the positive side, the people in power who were ok with fascism but aren't Trump acolytes and have a stronger sense of self preservation will be quite ok with going back to neoliberalism, and those people will now be making choices based on what is likely to happen past January. In that sense the coup fizzled.
MSM seem to have some to their senses too.
I do think there is cause to be concerned though, because there seem to be still quite a few acolytes around.
Yes. But we may look to the decimation of the national party over a short space to see what happens when a populace hoodwinked finally takes their blinkers off.
If a few Biden supporters surround the White House and yell "Loser" loud enough for him to hear he would likely decamp to Florida for the winter. Actually I suspect a large number of his court will simply jump ship leaving him alone. Who would want to go down with that ship.
And has the fence come down?
I could see Mitch McConnell moving smartly to create a new republican power base around himself.
BTW Andre good to see you still here. I wondered if it would take time to emerge from the pile of coffee cups, comfort snack packages and cuddle blankets into the light of the new dawn. I for one feel a lot less anxious now Biden has won.
According to the news tonight he did play golf.
It was always going to be either golfing or "executive time".
The full Donny Goes to School skit.
Original is from Comedy Central. From 2017. Gold.
oops, snap Joe90.
Exit Poll Demographic swings in support 2016-2020 (Some provisional analyses):
https://www.ft.com/content/69f3206f-37a7-4561-bebf-5929e7df850d
https://www.brookings.edu/research/2020-exit-polls-show-a-scrambling-of-democrats-and-republicans-traditional-bases/
The boomer-haters in this forum won't like that data…
Why?
Just read first …
I did.
Good comment swf. It confirms an idea I put forward a while back, that we are in the middle of one of those multi-decade cycles where the US political base re-shuffles itself into new, pre-conception breaking configurations.
One of the easy misconceptions to fall into is thinking that Democrats = NZLP and Republican = NZ Nationals. To some extent this is true, but there is a lot more to it in the USA. In some ways it's better to think of the two big parties as 'brand vehicles' for which the actual product on offer changes radically over time.
Expect more turmoil as the re-positioning continues for at least another five years.
Until 2016, Republicans and Democrats had long seemed to me to be more like rival wings of the same centre-right party.
Exactly what is it that you are trying to say?
The exit polls were only of those who voted on the day, so they'll skew heavily towards Trump supporters. So, say, an African-American who supports Trump is far more likely to be represented in an exit poll than Biden supporters, who used mail in ballots. From what I have read the conclusions on minority support drawn from exit polling has been a little… premature.
Fox only took 10 mins longer than the other networks to accept the new reality. Trump's narcissism keeps his inner reality to the fore so we await pressure from his friends & family to prevail over that.
Apparently (according to Fox) there's upward of 22,000 military votes still in the pipeline in Georgia so their knife-edge situation may revert to a Trump win eventually. Since the other knife-edge situations produced wins for Biden in Pennsylvania & Nevada, the people have produced a Democrat president regardless of how much Trump closes the gap after this.
Yesterday the Philadelphia mayor told Trump to put on his big-boy pants. Didn't call him Tubby though. Bit of a stretch. Elastic could break. If Trump does a press conference wearing them, it would signal he got the message.
(according to Fox)
That's your immediate flag to check more reliable sources. If you have any interest in what they have just mouth-noised, that is.
Fact checking says around 18,000 military ballots have already been received and counted in Georgia. There's another 8400-ish that were sent out and not received back at time of the fact-check. The deadline to receive them back was sometime yesterday.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/06/politics/georgia-military-ballots-fact-check/index.html
Okay. Obama: "Americans turned out in numbers never seen." https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/barack-obama-congratulates-joe-biden-kamala-harris-on-historic-and-decisive-victory-1087273/
Although I don't like political polarising, I have to concede that the current extreme has galvanized normally lethargic voters!
The Blimp will limp out after being Fired by the American people.
The military votes come mainly from Biden strongholds within the State of Georgia the majority may go down but unlikely to change.
Trump doesn't wear "big boy" pants. This from a producer on "The Apprentice"
https://twitter.com/CaslerNoel/status/1225086082183835649?s=20
Kamala Harris may as well prepare for full time in the Senate chair to preside there as long as there's anything close to tied votes.
https://www.senate.gov/general/Features/Part_1_VP.htm
They are going to need a really tight bind between the White House and Senate.
I can see k harris handling that task…haven't you been saying the repugs held the senate…?and so biden wd be impotent..?..
You need to read the results. Just read first.
Has Pootee sent his congratulations to Biden yet?
Hi Andre, happy for this result, but anxious about the next bit. Trump does not possess grace, only self interest. All the best to you and your family over there.
Bathe in the Lincoln Project rhetoric and enjoy the visual bubble-bath of victory:
Allow us too, the long suffering people outside of America, who have felt the pain and chaos from afar, some sweet time for reflection and celebration that the orange tumour–assembled in some grotesque mockery of the human form, has been “Fired!”.
The reality of what Joe and Kamala have to deal with, and how they will deal with it, can wait for a day.
Biden has said that one of the first things he will do is rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement. That has to be the best news the planet has had for some time.
But Biden won this by the skin of his teeth-70 million voters supported Trump and his extreme right, anti-environment, illiberal and nationalistic views. The next election will be interesting.
"The next election will be interesting."
There's to be another one!
God help us all!
Jack Tame on One just now said Trump won more non-white votes than any other president in US history. If true, that's something that all those framing Trump as the last bastion of white rule are going to have to wrap their heads around!!
Indigenous folk certainly did their part.
https://www.hcn.org/articles/indigenous-affairs-how-indigenous-voters-swung-the-2020-election
This is from 2016 data but I imagine it would be very similar in 2020:
https://medium.com/@ste.kinneyfields/do-you-know-this-graphic-i-made-it-heres-why-f97bcf88408c#.7f996n9xu
"If true, that's something that all those framing Trump as the last bastion of white rule are going to have to wrap their heads around!!"
Actually, it's something for the people who don't see/understand white supremacy to get their head around. We went through this at the last election.
This from Adrienne Maree Brown this morning,
http://adriennemareebrown.net/2020/11/07/we-won-stay-safe/
And you know, PoC aren't a hive mind, there are conservative Black people. It's also pretty clear that the current white supremacy movements will work with PoC when it suits them. Just like the patriarchy allows some women to have some power and so some women take that opportunity.
Trump isn't the last bastion of white rule (unfortunately). He's the current vanguard.
Actually, it's something for the people who don't see/understand white supremacy to get their head around.
Running divisive racist lines on a left wing blog eh … colour me surprised.
there’s a lot of women, black people and poor people who got caught up in trumpism because white supremacy is so seductive, supremacy is so seductive.
The highly selective, parochial 'kindness' of the radical left is something only the true believers cannot see. And their circular, kafka trap, gaslighting explanations for why some of the so-called 'victim class' don't play by their cult rules are morally bankrupt bullshit. And you guys whine that Trump was the 'great divider', when your entire intellectual framework is rooted in just that.
Patronising to boot.
I see where you're coming from, and admire your ‘passion‘. Is it 'over'? OVER
Which is a truth that should put to end the identity politics that keeps popping up in such things as:
Because representation.
But no single person can represent such groups because they're not actually a hive mind.
not sure what you mean there Draco. We use tools to increase representation because it's the collective numbers that make the difference. It's well within identity politics framing to understand that individuals of a class aren't representative eg Thatcher. That's why we need the numbers, to change the culture.
We have great celebrations of having more women and Māori in parliament to represent those people and yet, by your own words, its meaningless. Even your comment there contains the contradiction:
The only logical solution is that all people represent themselves in a participatory democracy. However, there is only one intrinsic problem with this, which is why it would inevitably change to becoming less participatory and more like the representative-delegated system that we have at present.
Good use of modern tools such as Loomio could make our democracy far more participatory than what it is.
Yes, it could, but I believe that not enough people are interested at present. This is where bold & brave visionary leadership comes in, or not …
I reckon we won’t even see any meaningful and recommended changes to the MMP system during this term.
5 million votes up to 306 electoral college votes is not skin of your teeth.Biden will probably not run again given his Age.
Biden a man for the Ages a safe pair of hands getting rid of the Orange blimp is all that matters.
All trump's cronies and all his tyrannical despot dictator mates can't put Trumpty together again.
Rubbish Tricle.
The vote is 75 million against 71 million-a nation split almost down the middle.
You are using the unfair and unpredictable electoral college system to justify your statement, but that argument doesn't work either. If Trump had got a few more votes in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia he would have won massively.
Tricle -Trump won under the same rules and mechanisms four years ago.
So befitting he is playing golf, a game of equalising qualities due to the rules of the game. Alas, Trump can't help himself to cheat here too. What does this say about the character of that men.
Whilst we do not know whether Biden will have the desired impact the american public wants, it is still better to have someone moderate and reconciliatory than divisive. Trump has used his “partners” to fan unrest even to such extend that people feared a civil war can break out. What kind of President does that?
The one thing all, public, politicians, press etc should be doing is giving Trump a door to exit. To provoke him by insulting him is not much better behaviour than any description of the men.
Trump has a lot to loose once out of the immunity of the position. He even can go to jail due to his financial doings. So he will fight until the bitter end.
The same argument could be made about 2012 with a similar margin of votes and percentage of popular vote, but that was seen as a decisive victory to Obama.
Agree, it's a sizeable margin in the end.
There is going to be such an epis s***fight now. It ain't gonna be pretty.
If that was going to happen it would have manifested itself on election night as it did when 3 Trump supporters allegedly came from Virginia in their Hummvee full of weapons but were thwarted quickly.
Trump protestors have been loud but not violent if they choose a path of violence Republican support will go down at midterms only 2 years away .
The Republican Party will be happy to get rid of the Orange Blimp with a Nappy.
He was an outsider They won't want him hanging around damaging their Parties image.
If trump just spits the dummy and walks away..essentially resigns…does pence become president for that period before biden takes over ..and if so could he then do a ford/nixon…and give trump a blanket pardon for crimes committed..?
Can a President give a pardon to someone who has not been convicted of a crime? Surely you have to have something to be pardoned for?
Secondly, if Pence gave Trump a pardon, wouldn't there have to be, if not a conviction, at least a list of the crimes for which he would need pardoning?
Surely it can't be as blatant as "I don't know what this great President has done, because he is such a great human being sent by God to this great nation to be our president unhappily just for a little short of four years because of fraud and fake news and hip pocket media, but for whatever scurrilous lies might be dreamt up by his godless enemies, on behalf of the people, and acting for all the people and not in any partisan manner I declare Donald Trump pardoned."
Hmmm………..
Of course all that is relevant..I am just wondering if they would be able to do it….does the constitution/whatever allow such chicanery.?..or does it not block that possibility..?..'cos trump is as cunning as a rat with a gold toothpick ..and if he could get away with that..he will do it….and Putin is just passing a law giving him blanket-immunity for any crimes he has committed during his time as president…so the concept is not farcical..I just can't think of any way the founding fathers could have thought of that possibility..
Immunity is not the same as a pardon.
But I take your point. I'd suggest that Trump could be so difficult to prosecute that he would be just left to enjoy the privileges of his status as a former president, and some lower echelon fall guy takes one instead.
Nixon was never convicted. Ford pardoned him for any crimes he may have committed.
The citation has this second paragraph.
"After Ford left the White House in 1977, he privately justified his pardon of Nixon by carrying in his wallet a portion of the text of Burdick v. United States, a 1915 U.S. Supreme Court decision that suggested that a pardon carries an imputation of guilt and that its acceptance carries a confession of guilt."
The guilt was very much part of the pardon. Would Trump accept that imputation?
If he saw it as a way to avoid spending the rest of his life tied up in the courts, absolutely.
"Can a President give a pardon to someone who has not been convicted of a crime".
Well Gerald Ford certainly thought so when he pardoned Nixon, who hadn't actually been charged with anything, much less convicted of anything.
He pardoned him for any crimes he might have committed while President. Very sensible of him I always thought. Otherwise Watergate would have gone on forever.
There is the matter of deterrence.
The political class are well educated and well lawyered – they cannot pretend ignorance of the consequences of their actions.
Trump is responsible for an awful lot of dead Americans. He should get a bit of a shock – the one they call 'the electric chair'. "You give them a short sharp shock, and they don't do it again, dig it?" Pink Floyd.
.
and here’s a song to see Trump off. You moving out today..sung and written by the wonderful Carole Bayer Sager
Heh..!..very good..!
It was a joy, waking up at 4:30 am in the morning, checking my phone, and the Guardian feed telling me that Biden had won.
Turned on CNN this morning, and was greeted to the most awesome sight of Americans dancing in the streets.
Thank you New Zealand, ACT, Bolivia, Queensland and now the USA.
This is just too delicious.
https://twitter.com/SlexAxton/status/1325141204418191361
https://twitter.com/FSPhiladelphia/status/1325102014964109312
https://twitter.com/_RichardHall/status/1325111689478541312
Woooooo Hooooooo what fantastic news for the USA.
And still the entertainment continues, trump is having twitter tantrums.
Fingers crossed the maga supporters don't lose their minds too.
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1325119592130252801
Just a wee thought about Tat today 😆
Florida Amendment 2 for a $15 minimum wage passes with 61% support, but Biden loses Florida by nearly 4%, even though he has a $15 minimum wage as part of his platform. This element of the dreaded 'socialism' looks to be quite popular, even though Biden repudiates 'socialism' while quietly having this piece of it in his manifesto. What conclusion to draw from such a muddle? Probably none – except to venture that unless Biden stops the empty rhetoric about 'unity' and makes a real difference to material economic conditions on the ground for millions of people, Trumpism isn't going away. How can there be unity when your economic system is an undeclared war of all against all.
Well, it is Florida and socialism is the magic word in Florida.
COMMENTARY Congresswoman-elect Maria Elvira Salazar used the McCarthy tactics she once faced. Her success signals a darker South Florida political culture.
Maria Elvira Salazar apparently has a short memory.
Just two years ago the former TV journalist faced sleazy accusations during her Republican primary bid for Florida’s 27th congressional district. A rival called Salazar, who is Cuban-American, a fan of Cuba’s late communist dictator Fidel Castro simply because she’d interviewed Castro in 1995. One especially underhanded attack ad edited the interview to make it look and sound as if she’d fallen in love with el comandante. The spot asked: “Whose side are you on, Maria?”
I wrote a commentary defending Salazar – and called her win in that primary an encouraging sign that Miami politics was shedding its sinister McCarthyism.
But boy do I look stupid and naïve now, folks. This year’s election not only confirmed malicious McCarthyism is alive and smearing in South Florida – it showcased Salazar as one of its most enthusiastic practitioners.
https://www.wlrn.org/commentary/2020-11-06/salazars-hypocrisy-a-reminder-how-harmful-socialista-hysteria-is-to-south-florida
" while quietly having this piece of it in his manifesto "
'Quietly' – that is probably the answer to the apparent contradiction – Biden made no effort to draw attention to his $15/h policy. I suspect because he (and especially his donors) don't actually want it.
Hidden on his web page under 'empowerworkers''
And ‘quietly’ in the debates
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/23/debate-minimum-wage-increase/
Biden will address public 8 pm est (2 pm NZ).
Guessing this is the acceptance speech sans Trump's concession speech.
Good to see the end of Halloween Head, the most delusional US president ever, but surprising to see how many still voted for him.
Biden will be a safe pair of hands, provided he hangs on to his marbles for the next four years. Senate still remains in Republican control, but that may change later, if not there won’t be any radical change by the Democrats. More interesting will be the old vs young democrat divide, the fossils being far more centrist & the new young democrats far more left wing. Predict bun fights in the dems in future about this.
Biden’s got his work cut out reconciling urban v rural America.
Even in states like Tennessee which went for Trump big time, the two major urban ares, Nashville and Memphis went to Biden.
This seemed to be replicated in a lot of States.
I’m confused. Joe Biden just stopped the most divisive President of modern times and Biden is the one in trouble?
I think he’ll naturally defuse the worst of it with innate congeniality, if allowed. Trump will try to maintain division, and I suspect will try to run again.
US academic institutions are providing counselling to students traumatised by democracy:
Having spent a large part of my life with a professional counsellor as partner, I know the free market fails to provide sufferers sufficient funds to pay for help. Victims of democracy don't get state support so good to see universities stepping up.
it's not trauma from democracy it's trauma from fascism.
Weird ironic twist to be linking to Breitbart then.
There's been some controversy within younger generations, apparently.
I've noticed some references to entitlement often show up in the analysis & commentary. Not that the syndrome is generation specific: Trump seems to feel he's entitled to a second term as president. But precisely why some young people believe they are entitled to deplatform others never is explained. So we are left with guessing their parents reared them with the belief that they have that right. Then when society denies it to them, trauma ensues…
You're conflating two things there.
1. the past 4 years have been traumatic for many people, due to fascism.
2. in the last decade there's been the development of culture around protecting people's emotional vulnerability. There are valuable aspects to this and problematic ones.
those are two different things, with obvious overlaps. If the 2nd didn't exist the first still would, and it makes sense to me that universities would offer extra support to students around this particular election (not democracy in general).
Universities are not part of the free market?
Biden has a German Shepard called Major. It is a rescue from an animal shelter. I expect the dog will go to the White House and eat rump steak.
Edit shepherd.
Great speeches from Biden and Harris. So weird not to hear a stream of invective and lies. Harris has the potential to be inspirational like our own PM. Biden's theme of unity and healing and ending partisan hatred is much needed. He talked of making life better for the people, firstly by getting COVID under control. Establishing his own task force based on gasp science!
Biden doesn't soar like Obama but he says the right stuff. He mentions "inflection points" in history where Americans choose leaders that fight for justice. Name checks Lincoln, FDR & the new deal, JFK and Obama, and "restoring the soul of America". Signs off with a quote from a hymn. "And he will raise you up on eagle's wings, bear you on the breath of dawn. Make you to shine like the sun and hold you in the palm of his hand." & "God Bless America"
Enjoyed the crowd reactions, lots of diverse people found the occasion moving.
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1325149771464540160?s=20
Mostly for me is the release from subjectivism personified being overthrown.
The subjectivism of this comfortable age for some will soon kill us all but lets not make it an ideal.
While there is plenty of good news for Dems, there are two things in this result that should be deeply concerning to them:
1) Trump/Republican in-built advantage in the electoral college remains significant.
Biden is going to win the popular vote by 4-6% (depending on how all the votes from large states like CA and NY settle) but he only won the states that put him over 270 electoral votes by less than 1%. That means even a small move back toward Republicans could give them an electoral majority in 2024 even with another loss of the popular vote.
2) Republican House and Senate candidates overperformed Trump across the nation, which is a sign that the election was more a repudiation of Trump the Person, and not Trump the Policy Platform.