Roy Morgan says…National governs alone, again.

Written By: - Date published: 2:17 pm, November 14th, 2015 - 197 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out.

During November support for National fell 1% to 49% still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted before controversy erupted this week after PM John Key accused Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists…If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be easily re-elected.

Support for the National partners the Maori Party improved to 2% (up 1.5%) while the other partners were unchanged; Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties – Labour’s support is now at 29.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 12% (up 0.5%) but support for NZ First decreased to 6% (down 0.5%).

RM’s Government Confidence Rating is up 9.5 points to 131.5.

A full year into National’s 3rd term. Yet voters apparently see no better alternatives to John Key on the horizon. With the Maori Party’s 2% likely going to a National led Government, Winston First would be left out in the wilderness again.

Do Standardistas think that a well rehearsed speech from Andrew Little at Labour Party Conference is going to make a difference to this lack of Left traction? Your views please.

Right. A few commentators have said that I am cherry picking negative Roy Morgans to slate Labour. Get real Lefties. Look at the chart below of Roy Morgans stretching back to Q3 2013. National is doing better now than back at the end of 2013 (when Cunliffe had just been elected Leader). Labour is bouncing around between 25% and 30%. Check out the numbers on the interactive version on the Roy Morgan site. So this is my message: the Left is not getting any traction whatsoever and there are very good reasons for this.

Roy Morgan

197 comments on “Roy Morgan says…National governs alone, again.”

  1. James 1

    National would have been higher in the polls but it was “conducted before controversy erupted this week”.

  2. sabine 2

    well, depending on how you wanna look at it,

    labour up
    Green up
    NZ First down.

    Maori Party up
    national unchanged?

    interesting comment today from a friend of mine, who last time around voted Maori Party, and who will not be voting for this ‘current’ Maori Party.

    but as I stated elsewhere, the only poll that counts is the one in 2017 if we still have elections then.

  3. Facetious 3

    Time for Labour to try a new leader. Andrew Little has under-performed badly, not delivered the required leadership, and needs to make room for either David Cunliffe or Grant Robertson.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      Dude, the choice of Leader is irrelevant if Labour is determined to vote with National on most every single issue of importance.

  4. upnorth 4

    yep and it is now going to get worst for the left – watch them plummet the conference was good BUT NO POLICY!!!!!

    What does labour stand for

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      getting back into power

    • weka 4.2

      “BUT NO POLICY”

      Labour were clear pre-conference that this one wasn’t about policy, that that would happen in the one before the election. I don’t see that as a problem tbh. They’ve got other ika to fry in the meantime.

      • Lanthanide 4.2.1

        Defending Labour with “they planned not to have policy” is not actually a defence of their lack of policy.

        • Colonial Viper 4.2.1.1

          Visionless, rudderless Labour Party, hoping to win 2017 because people start hating National enough.

        • weka 4.2.1.2

          Labour have policy. I didn’t say they didn’t have policy. I said that they signalled ahead of time that this conference wasn’t a policy-focussed conference, they were focussing on other things.

          • Whispering Kate 4.2.1.2.1

            I agree Weka, the reason why they are delaying policy announcements is because it would give National a good time to tinker, adjust and bring in the same policies – other words theft for firstly, never having the guts to make hard decisions of their own and secondly they have no vision or creativity in their brains or mental ability to create policy of their own. Happens every time. Bloody slackers that’s what they are – or parasites living off other people’s ideas. Key’s cycle lanes for instance – give me a break,

      • Colonial Viper 4.2.2

        If it “wasn’t about policy” why did Labour pull a whole bunch of policy?

        • weka 4.2.2.1

          I would have thought that was pretty obvious. They have some policies they’re not happy with, they’ve removed them (or whatever process the Labour party uses) and they’re going to work on policy in general over the next year.

          • Colonial Viper 4.2.2.1.1

            So it was about policy then?

            • weka 4.2.2.1.1.1

              no. Don’t be obtuse.

              • Colonial Viper

                they pulled policy that the top 10% middle class didnt like, like the CGT. So you cant tell me that Labour wasnt policy positioning on the lead up to Conference.

                • weka

                  🙄

                  They pulled some policy that they believe is unpopular and that has cost them in the past. From what I understand they’ve also asked the identity politics crowd to pull back (thought you would be happy about that). To me it looks like they’re rethinking their overall strategy.

                  “So you cant tell me that Labour wasnt policy positioning on the lead up to Conference.”

                  True, that’s not what I said.

  5. weka 5

    I’m thinking our best and probably only hope is this. Little’s plan of steadily building a competent Labour party over time works (no flash, but by 2017 they’re ready). It’s not a leftward move in the way we would understand it, but it does at least stop the neoliberals in the party from having full control.

    Part of that includes improving relationships with the Greens and NZF. NZF sticks to it’s position of not telling anyone pre-election who it will support. Labour and the GP make clear, public signals that they intend to form a coalition post-election. Both parties have their election strategies worked out.

    We get a competent opposition going into the election. By then Little is used to the leadership job, and the Greens have settled in with their new co-leadership arrangement.

    The public is sick of National in the way it often is by the end of the third term. We get a handful of continuing fuck ups from the right. Nicky Hager doesn’t publish anything before the election. In the months before the election the worm turns with the MSM most of whom have reached their extremely high tolerance for dirty politics and who manage to present things relatively evenhandedly. People are ready for a change and that’s what they get.

    I can’t see Labour going left. Our only hope there is for a new party to arise, not for the next election but for the long term.

    • ropata 5.1

      “I can’t see Labour going left.”
      How I wish Cunliffe had waited.
      We could have seen a Corbyn/Sanders/Trudeau-like uprising… *sigh*

    • Lara 5.2

      I don’t understand why the left don’t embrace the Greens more. They’re the most stable party in parliament (if you look at their leadership and lack of MPs leaving for dodginess), they’ve got depth and talent, and they’ve got a bunch of very left leaning policy. They were the only party last election to have their policy independently costed.

      I don’t think the left need new parties. Greens or Mana are already there and pretty left.

      • weka 5.2.1

        I often wonder that about the GP too. I think the perception of middle class capture puts off some working class lefties. Fear of the untried nature of the party esp re economics probably puts off the more mainstream lefties (an odd reason, because they’re not going to be the dominant party and in charge, and how does a party get experience without being in govt. Still, voting doesn’t seem to be a particularly rational thing). The Greens reckon that 25% polled would like to vote Green but don’t at the election.

        My suggestion about a new party is because Labour have abandoned that working class base, the working class base has changed, and the GP while they have good policies around some important issues they’re not actually representing those constituencies. Mana may make a come back but they have some issues around how to work with the system that would need to be resolved if they want to get an established presence in parliament and not wasting a few % of leftie votes.

    • ede 5.3

      I disagree with you on the part of Labour and GP being clear that they will form a coalition. I think whats scared many people from voting left is the fact that the green party could play a big role in the next government. For most NZ’ers their views are simply to extreme as they seem to be incredibly socialist. Labour needs to campaign for itself only, they need to make it clear that if you want to change the govt then you need to vote labour. And maybe then if they find themselves needing a few extra seats after election night they can call up the greens who will hopefully only have gotten like 5% of the vote so will have far less influence in the next government. Thats the way I see it anyway. Because if we remember when national was in opposition, the act party was going very strong around the 8% mark, but they essentially died out by the time people were serious about changing the govt to national.

      • weka 5.3.1

        Labour are never going to govern alone. There is no way they can make up 20 points in the next 2 years. Besides, they tried campaigning as a stand along party and it didn’t work. Twice.

        I don’t think most NZers think the GP is “incredibly socialist” and therefore don’t vote Labour. Some people don’t vote Labour because Labour don’t appear competent. Others just don’t vote at all. The smaller numbers scared of the GP are probably mostly misinformed. Most people I talk to who are concerned about the GP can’t defend their position when talking actual policy. That’s because the GP policy is smart, makes sense and is not particularly radical. Most anti-Green sentiment is ideologicial rather than fact based.

  6. McFlock 6

    Well, that’s one interpretation.

    Another is to think a 4% gain for Labour in that year is a fairly solid move in a three year election cycle, and that if they run a decent campaign that complements the efforts of the greens, then things might not be all that tragic.

    • Lanthanide 6.1

      National went from 28% to 45% in 2 weeks after Don Brash’s Orewa speech in 2004, after they’d lost the 2002 election at just 22%.

      • McFlock 6.1.1

        Which is why national won the 2005 election – oh, wait…
        tl:dr: easy come, easy go.

        But if a party does the hard work of pushing different issues, demonstrating stability and integrity, and communicating their ideas to the public, different people will be won over at different times as trust is slowly earned. And I believe that that type of support is more stable in the long term than the kneejerk response of the easily distracted.

        • Lanthanide 6.1.1.1

          National only very narrowly lost the 2005 election.

          The point is, cheering Labour on because they’ve gone up by 4% in a year is pretty weak.

          • McFlock 6.1.1.1.1

            So is bemoaning the futility of their existence just because they haven’t had a hallelujah moment yet.

            The point is that even with an orewa speech, national still lost. “Almost” is another word for “didn’t”.

            • Lanthanide 6.1.1.1.1.1

              National’s Orewa moment still wasn’t enough for them to win.

              Labour’s fucked then, aren’t they?

              • McFlock

                Yes, if the only way to win an election is for the leader to deliver one speech that suddenly doubles the party’s popularity in the polls, and after that it’s rainbows and unicorn farts.

                But if it’s possible to win without a hallelujah moment, then no, not necessarily.

    • Colonial Viper 6.2

      Labour can’t pull those moves because Labour is culturally and socially disconnected from ordinary Kiwis.

      • McFlock 6.2.1

        lol

        • Colonial Viper 6.2.1.1

          Laugh out loud mate, but its Labour Party supporters who are laughed out of venues, gatherings and protests today. Even Prof Kelsey says shame on Labour.

          • McFlock 6.2.1.1.1

            But weren’t you going to use your awesome power (of knowing what the masses want) to turn things around in Labour?

            • Colonial Viper 6.2.1.1.1.1

              nah mate it’s too multi-level multi-dimensionally fucked.

              • McFlock

                Well, maybe you’ll be able to move on after a suitable grieving period .

                Fuck I need to trim my behemoth post and get it to bill. Too much work on at the moment.

              • You going green then cv – maybe stand for them, get involved in their committees and so on…?

              • RedLogix

                Well I’m proud of CV for giving it a go. More than I’ve had the guts to do.

                • McFlock

                  fair call on the candidacy, but when it came to the internal party machinations he never recognised the fact that a large chunk of Labour membership managed to live with Lab4.

                  Flogging a dead horse, there. Labour might go soft left, but they’ll never declare NZ a people’s republic.

  7. Detrie 7

    National easily won last time with no policy, just using typical fear tactics. i.e don’t take the risk of having labour/green/nzfirst blend. That TV ad with the rowing boats summed it up for many, notwithstanding the internet party being the poison pill in all of this.

    National simply gave the perception of presenting something far safer and more stable than the left coalition alternative, regardless of any policies promoted by Labour. Pretty-boy John Key saying nice platitudes [lies] around helping all voters, consensus politics etc the icing on the voters cake. But, with Key’s ‘too casual’ leadership style, combined with his sociopath tendencies, many may see him more a liability at the next election. With luck, Judith Collins may make a play for the leadership…

    As we’ve heard in previous election cycles, the opposition party seldom win an election, it’s up to the incumbent to lose it.

    • sabine 7.1

      why you don’t want Paula Bennett? or Mr. 19 % the double dipper Bill English?
      so much potential in the National Party to move this country forward to a more blighted future.

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.1

        English got 22%

        • sabine 7.1.1.1

          oh dear, I really thought at his lowest he was 19% maybe i get it wrong with the other dude Brash?

          • Lanthanide 7.1.1.1.1

            Brash very nearly won the 2005 election, and would have if it weren’t for the interest-free student loans bribe by Labour (excellent policy, but a bribe none-the-less, announced something like 3 days before the election) and the exclusive brethren scandal that erupted in the last few weeks for National.

            • sabine 7.1.1.1.1.1

              I might confuse personal choice for PM but I really thought it was english that polled at something like 19% before election.

              I personally don’t give a wee poo about polls as at the end often they are not quite correct and depend on whom was asked.

              But hey, I shall call Mr. Double Dipper English from now on Mr. 22% 🙂

  8. Leftie 8

    It’s all rigged, polls are easily manipulated and are not above political interference, particularly when it comes to the key National government. It’s all about PR, credibility and truth don’t factor into it.
    Changes in technology have also made polling particularly unreliable. Roy Morgan say they use landlines and mobile phone numbers, given that less people use landlines now, and there is no white pages that list people’s “current” mobile numbers, and telcos do not give out that kind of information, how does Roy Morgan get mobile phone numbers to randomly call?

    “Cellphones make political polling tricky”
    <a href="http://www.3news.co.nz/politics/cellphones-make-political-polling-tricky-2014070616#axzz3r9J1NLev

    • Colonial Viper 8.1

      Both political parties spend a massive amount of money on polling activities.

      • Leftie 8.1.1

        @CV

        It still doesn’t change the point I was making or answer the question raised. Besides, bet the well funded National Party with all it’s influence beats every other party hands down on that score. John Key gave particular thanks to David Farrar, (who owns a polling company), on election night.

        • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1

          The main point is that I expect the General Election results to come in within 3% to 4% of what the bulk of polls suggest.

          • Leftie 8.1.1.1.1

            @CV

            We’ll see, only time will tell that or not, and that may be your main point, but it wasn’t mine. You did ask for people’s views.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.1.1.1

              I’m not disagreeing with you that polling processes and the way results are published are easily manipulated.

              I do think that the Left has been shown to be grasping at straws when it says that polls are consistently biased towards National due to the mobiles/landline factor, etc.

              The fact of the matter is that Labour and the Greens are getting no traction whatsoever, 7 years into National rule, with a John Key who no longer cares for the job of PM and a Cabinet now thoroughly bereft of vision and motivation.

              I will be proposing a case for why this is the case, and it revolves around the Left having being captured by the status quo establishment, no longer having a relevant vision of change for ordinary NZers, nor any real motivation for creating or physically realising that vision.

              • Leftie

                @CV

                That’s a somewhat contradictory response and I’m not grasping at straws at all. Also what about the large role msm have played in ensuring that Labour and the opposition parties don’t get any traction? If the media had of told the truth, John key and his government would have been unelectable. When did John key ever care? and when did National’s cabinet ever have vision and ideas? National have always been motivated to asset strip and rip the country off for it’s own self interests. I think KK is right about you CV.

                • Colonial Viper

                  “Also what about the large role msm have played in ensuring that Labour and the opposition parties don’t get any traction?”

                  And what about the MSM? The MSM has always been the tool of the capitalist class. Thats why the Labour Movement created the original Standard.

                  That the Left has abandoned or set up to fail virtually all its own media channels is whose fault?

                  You accuse the Key Government of being venal and self interested. Which they are. Which makes it even more of an indictment that Labour has been voting for all their spying, anti terrorism, social welfare, and apparently now TPP legislation.

              • red-blooded

                CV, that might be why YOU are disillusioned with Labour, but if “ordinary NZers” were looking for a radical alternative to the status quo establishment, don’t you think they’d have voted for someone other than JK by now? How about Mana/Internet? Not a lot of traction, despite huge investment of resources.

                Sorry if this disappoints some on this site, but I think Labour has to take a reasonably moderate approach when competing with this lot. Voters have shown again and again that they want stability. Labour went into the last election with some great policy, but people didn’t go for it. Maybe they saw it as adding up to too big a shift, maybe they were influenced by the clear problems behind the scenes, maybe the title “Dirty Politics” was too broad and dirtied all in politics rather than targeting those were were actually meant to be the focus, maybe DotCom and the sell-out decision of Mana weakened respect for the Left, maybe Key managed to grin/grimace his way through… Probably it was a combination of all of these, but the fact remains that policy popular with people here has been rejected 3 times in a row by the majority who get out and vote.

                Just as JK has taken NZ steadily rightward, Labour (when next in government) will take the country steadily to the left. That’s what Clarke did; no leaping into the unknown, just steady steps to open up opportunity, reduce inequality and redress imbalances. And, let’s be honest, her government was also very aware of polls. That doesn’t mean that they had no policy or made no progress. They weren’t my dream team, but they make significant improvements over time.

                Anyway, I think Little is doing a reasonable job. The best thing he’s achieved is to settle the caucus down and so calm the media down. Labour’s no longer seen as a bit of a joke. His media skills are still developing, and I think he may always come across as a bit dour, but so did Clarke and she managed OK. I think so long as people regard him as authentic (which he is) then he doesn’t have to try to out-smarm Key.

                Anyway, I look forward to your upcoming posting, CV, but I do think you need to step back a bit and realise that the general voting public are not leftwing activists and don’t necessarily thirst for major change. That doesn’t mean that there’s no opportunity for meaningful change, but it does mean that a government has to gain people’s trust and then take people with them.

    • James 8.2

      The whole cell phone argument has been disproven.

      Read up – educate yourself.

      The only way National are influencing the results is generally people are very happy with them. Looking good for another term the way they are running.

      • Leftie 8.2.1

        @James,

        Load of rubbish. Let me guess, you’re a National supporter, right?

        • Brutus Iscariot 8.2.1.1

          Just because you and everyone you know dislike Key/National, doesn’t mean the general public share the same view.

          I think you’re the one guilty of polling/sampling error.

          • Leftie 8.2.1.1.1

            @Brutus Iscariot

            How am I guilty of polling/sampling error?
            Where did I say I speak for the general public? that you don’t speak for either.

            Will remind you that over half of the voting public did not vote for John key and his National party at last year’s election, despite key’s use of dirty politics.

  9. I keep thinking that it is the beginning of the end and then a poll like that comes out and turns out we are only at the beginning of the beginning. Nationals poll results are all about John Key and maybe this week the narrative changed. He would still be fun to have a beer with but you wouldn’t want him next to you in the trenches, yelling about rapists. You just wouldn’t. Little – less fun over a beer, but a million times better in the trenches. Little needs to concentrate on being himself and straight talking. Let Key do the work on himself.

    • sabine 9.1

      the having a beer with thingy depends. who is more fun around when drunk, Little or Key. Or if I phrase it differently, whom would you feel safer with Little or Key?

    • James 9.2

      “this week the narrative changed” – You really think this? I bet you are wrong.

      Will be interesting with the next lot of polls. But holding up gang members and calling them war heroes and suggesting that they are fine upstanding citizens dosnt wash with the general public.

      I dont see this harming Key – and in fact he will probably poll higher.

  10. weka 10

    6.5% undecided. Which means many of the people that answered the poll won’t bother voting on election day. Does the spread of those people reflect the poll itself, or are the non-voters and undecideds a different mix?

    Does publishing poll results before an election affect how people vote?

    • sabine 10.1

      Non voters simply don’t vote. Undecided might vote National one year and then NZFirst another year..or Green one year and then Labour or Mana another year, often basing their choice around ‘issues’ rather then party affiliation.

      Non voters on the other hand, a completely different scenario. You have those that don’t vote as a ‘voting option’ i.e. abstain, and then you have those that simply don’t care to vote cause ‘they’ don’t ever do anything for me/mine, or they don’t care about me.

      I know people that have not voted for both reasons, and I have been both trying very hard to get them to vote and will again try to get them to vote next time around.

      The ‘they don’t care for me’ crownd are the ones that need to be returned to the voting process….it is just too sad, that last time over a million people just simply did not go and vote. Not a kind look for all parties involved.

      • weka 10.1.1

        My point was that the non-vote and the undecideds could be skewing the poll result.

        • sabine 10.1.1.1

          I don’t see why or how. Undecided will be that, and non voters will be that.

          What I would like to know is
          % of self identified National Voters
          % of self identified Labour Voters
          % of self identified NZF/Green Voters othe voters
          % different age groups
          % of gender split
          % rural participants
          % urban participants
          % professional
          % employed
          % unemployed
          % students

          all we have here is ….we called x people and they say this. Now if this sample is 75% National Voters vs 25 % other voters, that would be a spectacularly bad poll for National. If it were the other way round it would be a bad poll for the Other Parties, but the way it is formulated one would not know who was asked.

          I want to know who was asked.

          The 6.5 % undecided might be genuinly undecided or might just not wanting to state their preference.

          • weka 10.1.1.1.1

            “Now if this sample is 75% National Voters vs 25 % other voters,”

            Yes, this is my point. Because we don’t know which way the non-voters split, we don’t know what the poll means. For instance, if the non-vote is 20% at election time, how many of this weeks poll that end up not voting have said this week they will vote National? Of course there is no way of knowing that ahead of time, but it does mean that the poll is potentiall really off. Even the undecideds are not clear unless they are asked why and that’s broken down. How many people refused to answer?

            Then there is the issue of whether polls in the weeks leading up to the election affect the result. eg if the many of the non-vote don’t vote because they think that the election is a foregone conclusion. That could affect who gets to govern.

            • sabine 10.1.1.1.1.1

              so yes, a misleading poll that some will take to show the abject failure of labour to lead ….etc etc etc. New Leaders for all of the opposition parties are needed. 🙂

              And despite all of this, both Labour and The Greens are up in a poll that was conducted at a time where National should have been beaming in glee, yet the support for National fell.
              So the only party that has a gain is the Maori Party, Labour and the Greens.
              I feel very very bad about his poll…don’t you ? 🙂

  11. ropata 11

    More interesting stats at the Dim-Post:
    https://dimpost.wordpress.com/2015/11/13/a-reminder-that-people-really-like-key/

    comment #42 by “izogi” points out the Nats “Key” tactic… making everything about the PM

    “I don’t think that concentrating on Key is going to result in a change of govt.”

    Neither. Waiting out ongoing direct personal attacks until audience boredom sets in, then emerging on the other side with massive personal popularity and the critics somehow being labelled as partisan villains, is something the PM is really really good at, however he manages to do it.

    Repeatedly making every concern and every issue about the specific figurehead at the top, instead of talking more about the issues and a failing government, is probably doing exactly what National’s strategists want the critics to do. Every argument becomes a variant of how much people like or hate or trust or distrust the Prime Minister.

    • greywarshark 11.1

      Good point ropata. Is Key a strawman? Guy Fawkes is over, so time to take the straw and weave it into gold a la fairy tale. Has to be Labour/Green gold though. So rumple the figurehead a bit, get under his skin. Make him want to stay in Hawaii.

      But give National heaps, make the other Ministers and MPs answerable and keep at them. Don’t let Key be a disposable lightning rod.

  12. greywarshark 12

    Are enough people feeling pain from Key’s policies and his low standard of government morality? A lot are disenfranchised and disillusioned. If the political players are measuring who is important to keep on side, and giving the rest a mental goodbye wave as they push the leaky boat out to sea, then perhaps Key has the winning edge.

    • sabine 12.1

      the only poll that counts is the one in 2017, and that leaves the National Party a lot of time to insult some more groups of people, eventually when they are done with the beneficiaries , the cancer patients on job search, the unemployed,, the victims of sexual and domestic violence, the single parents who recklessly had children whom they can’t afford, then who will be left to marginalise and insult?

      So, this poll, like all the others only means one thing, namely that both labour and Greens are going up, not in leaps and bounds but steady as she goes. Good enough for me.

  13. mickysavage 13

    Three comments:

    1. This poll appears to have been conducted during the period immediately after the world cup final. This is as good as it gets for national. If this is the change they will struggle.

    2. The poll predates last weekend’s labour conference. That of itself cannot be expected to change the polls but I can assure you there are a number of energised activists following that conference and this can only help Labour.

    3. Change always takes time.

    • KK 13.1

      I agree Mickey. To be honest I don’t know why you guys ever gave CV an author login here. He deliberately cherrypicks the most unreliable and negative polls and uses them to snipe at Labour. We have enough people on the right trying to drag down the left with dishonest spin, why on earth do we do it to ourselves?

      • Leftie 13.1.1

        Completely agree with you KK.

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          Until the Left faces up to reality it is going to keep losing losing losing

          • red-blooded 13.1.1.1.1

            And one of the realities is that people don’t vote for policies they don’t understand, see as abstract or feel intimidated by. How much actual policy did National present last time around? Labour had a much stronger policy platform, but that (sadly) is not what most people vote for. Little is quite right to be focusing on strengthening the party and building unity.

      • left for deadshark 13.1.2

        Did you leave a K’ of, were did you get the permission too attack the Author.

        👿

        “why you guys ever gave CV an author login “

    • Colonial Viper 13.2

      National is polling higher than most of 2H 2013 / 1H 2014.

      Their main problem in Parliament today is not Labour, it is internal power struggles.

    • Dead right, ms. No RWC bounce whatsoever. The cult of Key is over for the Ab’s, and by extension, NZ. First they wanna be seen with you, then they don’t mind being seen with you. Then they really prefer not being seen with you.

  14. Pat 14

    it remains “the economy stupid”……

    • Lanthanide 14.1

      +1

      • Cricklewood 14.1.1

        Yep, in my industry everyone is doing well. We’ve had a record year, we have work booked for the new year and have added 3 more staff all in and all things are pretty good.
        The doom and gloom messages from Labour are a disconnect from reality for many me included.
        There needs to be a more positive message one that explains how Labour will make things better, particulary for small business who not only employee a heap of people but can and should have a natural home with Labour.
        Otherwise the average voter says why risk the change…

        • BM 14.1.1.1

          This, there’s no doom and gloom, you see it every weekend at the malls and on the road, everywhere is packed with people doing/buying stuff.

          The vast majority are doing all right, which why people scratch their heads and think WTF every time Labour comes out to repeat their endless tales of woe and misery.

          Labour really is only pitching at a small minority, which is why they’re sucking so badly.

          • b waghorn 14.1.1.1.1

            Some one has to speak for them because the nats don’t give a fuck about them.

          • weka 14.1.1.1.2

            driving and mall shopping, those two bastion measures of wellbeing.

            • Lanthanide 14.1.1.1.2.1

              I think the point is, society is so stratified, that the well-off never interact with the less well-off, so they think they don’t exist.

            • GregJ 14.1.1.1.2.2

              driving and mall shopping, those two bastion measures of middle class wellbeing.

              Fixed it for you Weka – for the middle class it probably is that though! 😉

              Inertia being what it is they’ll only switch votes if:

              a) they are hurting badly economically

              or

              b) they feel they are missing out on something and someone offers it to them

    • mickysavage 14.2

      Yep although the positive feelings surged and National support did not really move.

      • Gangnam Style 14.2.1

        Not in my business, job lay offs early this year & more next year, & my region has high unemployment & an unsafe hospital. So watch this space.

  15. weston 15

    all very well having a poll that sayes this and a poll that sayes that but its not ALL about polls Just like in the northland by election it was not ALL about bridges although msm did its best to claim it was. Like chickenshit building up on a perch splodge by splodge the crap that this government adds to the burden of the people as a whole will bring it down eventually.

  16. Pat 16

    National will continue to ignore the law, behave corruptly and brazenly lie until such time as they are punished in the polls, nothing else will cause them to desist in dragging NZ down a dangerous path that will be difficult to repair and its supporters and those that toady in the expectation of some crumbs from the table will continue to gloat and justify beyond reason…..but just as those same apologists are wont to announce, the average kiwi voter does not care and the support currently attracted by National will disappear in a flash when the wallets of the average Kiwi grow thinner….and not before.
    In the meantime those who are concerned about democracy will have to suffer the increasingly bizarre claims and behaviours of those who revel in the baser human instincts.
    If you have ever wondered how regimes like the National Socialists of the 1930s Germany prospered you be may an unwilling participant in its demonstration.

  17. KK 17

    Yet again Colonial Viper does nothing but attack Labour. In this case, he cherrypicks the poll known to swing the most and be the most unreliable (note the frequent ~5% jumps between polls in the Roy Morgan), and then uses it to attack Labour coming out of a successful conference.

    Fact: Most mainstream polls consistently show the National-led and Labour-led blocs able to form a government with the help of NZ First. There’s still a long way to go, but this post is deliberately trying to make things look as bad as possible.

    Not saying there’s no room for criticism of Labour from the left, but what we see over and over from CV is sniping and undermining. I think we on the left should call it for what it is and get on with building for 2017. Little’s looking good. He’s had fire in his belly lately – conference, his speech in general debate this week. He’s spent a year rebuilding the party from the ashes, give the guy an effing break I say.

    • sabine 17.1

      this.
      +1

      CV’s dislike of the Labour party is clouding his judgement. He does not have to support them nor vote for them, but there is no need for him to undermine their achievements just because they are not good enough for him or because he is offended by them. Unless really he really does not care about the fact that no party on the left is able to govern by themselves and a viable third alternative is not there yet. The Greens may be that third party that one day will be able to govern by themselves, but it will not happen in 2017. So we need both parties – Labour and The Greens and we would want both parties to do well. The alternative is more of what we have now, and I don’t think the country will actually manage more of what we have now.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 17.1.1

        ^^^ this

      • ropata 17.1.2

        He’s probably planning a racially motivated moanfest where he projects all of his problems onto the LP that has failed to live up to his personal impeccable Left credentials. Regrettably politics is the art of the possible, and that means compromise.

        I appreciate CV’s passion and idealism but he’s off the deep end on the anti Labour rants these days

        • greywarshark 17.1.2.1

          Can’t understand what you are talking about ropata. I obviously had you wrongly sorted. I thought you were someone who cared about NZs as a whole, and wanted to see the strugglers helped, and better working welfare systems, and small business and labour get better treatment and lift the bottom line.

          Now it seems that it is all about how you are doing, and no-one is bothering to fund or request the ambulance to check and maintain the vital signs of the real Labour Party that actually cares about the body of ordinary NZ lying at the side of the road.

          What a sellout lot you lot are.

    • Leftie 17.2

      Cannot understand why CV is a member of the Labour Party that he clearly hates with a vengeance. I have asked more than one, but he won’t say., he said he didn’t hate Labour, then he went on and attacked it.

      • Colonial Viper 17.2.1

        Labour is a political party which unfortunately no longer has any purpose, mission or role.

        It accomplished everything that it was created to achieve, by the late 1940s, or thereabouts.

        Since then it has been struggling and lost, trying to find a worthwhile new mission and objectives set. And it has been failing. It went right wing and Rogernomics in the 1980s. In the 2000s it went middle class and middle of the road. Put in place more hoops for benes and ACC claimants; let property prices in Auckland run up and up and up.

        Now it doesn’t seem to have any other ideas, other than to walk in National’s shadow. And annoy Kiwis with Chinese last names.

        Bear in mind that National is actually in a worse position than Labour right now, but that’s not important.

        • BM 17.2.1.1

          Labour need to be more management focused and less political.
          Fuck the causes and missions that’s just ego driven bullshit.

          What the people want is a team of individuals, color,race sex isn’t important who have a plan to run the country which will lead to prosperity and a better life style for the majority of New Zealanders.

          That’s it.

          • ropata 17.2.1.1.1

            wrong, the majority of kiwis have given up on politics and don’t vote.
            dirty politics has worked as planned.

            all that people expect now is sideshows and glitzy promises from a PM who mouths comforting platitudes, and doesn’t challenge them to think.

        • Leftie 17.2.1.2

          @CV

          You still do not give a reason and/or an explanation as to why you are a member of the Labour party that you clearly hate.

          • Colonial Viper 17.2.1.2.1

            since you dont seem to be able to take a subtle hint: mind your own fucking business.

            • te reo putake 17.2.1.2.1.1

              It’s a pretty fair question. As a party member, you are equally responsible for all you loath about labour. Why bother?

            • Leftie 17.2.1.2.1.2

              @CV

              Keep your hair on, you do not need to be so rude.
              So you want to avoid a question, even though you open yourself up for it with your comments. That says a lot about you, doesn’t it? and you talk about values and principles. So ok you don’t want to say, that’s your call. I won’t waste my time asking you again.

        • Korero Pono 17.2.1.3

          CV, if you are a member of the Labour Party, what would you have Labour do that they are not currently doing?

          I get the idea that they are more interested in the middle vote, leaving those who have given up voting (in my mind the true left), to fester and rot.

          In regard to the CGT, given that another poster mentioned that Labour gave up on this because it is unpopular, do you think that suggests that the LP are chasing the popular vote, rather than doing what is right for the country?

          I would be interested in your thoughts.

          • Colonial Viper 17.2.1.3.1

            as a friend pointed out to me: the CGT as a policy was far more popular than Labour itself is.

            The other way to interpret Labour’s communications is that they only bother to speak to the top 20% of households, while ignoring the rest.

    • weka 17.3

      “Not saying there’s no room for criticism of Labour from the left, but what we see over and over from CV is sniping and undermining. I think we on the left should call it for what it is and get on with building for 2017. Little’s looking good. He’s had fire in his belly lately – conference, his speech in general debate this week. He’s spent a year rebuilding the party from the ashes, give the guy an effing break I say.”

      I thought this post was weak and stretching things, but CV does write good posts as well. I sometimes get a bit sick of the negativity too, but he’s not always like that. The standard is looking for new authors, so anyone that wants to write more constructive posts about Labour (or anything) could give it a go.

      CV, how about putting up a post about the GST reform? Or UBI? They’re solution based rather than pointing to a problem with no solution.

      • Colonial Viper 17.3.1

        i’ll be writing a couple of posts in coming weeks describing why and how the true Left needs to make a break with the status quo establishment systemic Left of the top 10%.

        • sabine 17.3.1.1

          so you are creating a party? We can join? Yes?

          oh no, you are just writing about your idea of a ‘true’ left, cause all of us here are not real ‘true’ left. Right?
          right?

          Why are you a member of the Labour Party? Really why?

          Why not just create your own party, write your statues and get members? Be that viable third party that this country needs and hey if you know what teh ‘true’ left is you should have no issues attracting supporters.

          • Colonial Viper 17.3.1.1.1

            political parties are a central part of the problem, as I will be detailing.

            • sabine 17.3.1.1.1.1

              so what do you expect to happen,

              someone will wave a magic wand, and puff the magic dragon appears and all will be well?

              i will read what ever you write, but gosh it better be entertaining. Cause the only system that we have is that little thing called democracy and unless utopia is knocking on the door tomorrow its all we have.

              • Colonial Viper

                you think we have “democracy” currently? Tell me, when did Little go out to the party members to ask if he could side up alongside the TPP? Or to vote for National’s social welfare amendments? Or to dump the CGT? Or to vote for more powers for our spooks mass surveillance programmes?

                Because as you know and I know, party members in Labour today are supposedly supposed to determine party policies.

                Except in practice thats nothing more than a convoluted fiction.

            • Lanthanide 17.3.1.1.1.2

              Brendan Horan created the “independents coalition”. Strangely it didn’t win a single seat.

              • Colonial Viper

                not sure why you arent holding up Horan as an example of where the party system goes utterly wrong. He clearly had no real constituency that he represented or could call on personally , for instance.

        • weka 17.3.1.2

          look forward to it.

  18. savenz 18

    People want to see the opposition out on the streets for TPP to show they care and are not careerists politicians.

    Today at the TPPA rally in Auckland could not see any sign of political parties marching even though Greens and NZ First Positions are clearly against TPP. Labour… well who knows what their position is on TPP, from 5 non negotiables to only 1 which is already sold under the China Trade agreement. Even though non of the 5 non negotiable are met.

    I would love to be wrong on this so if anyone knows some MP that marched somewhere let me know!

    Norman, Hone and Kelsey were there supporting the people in Auckland.

    Funny how our paid representatives can’t be bothered turning up, though.

    Kinda see why if the Natz are still on 49%. Guess what, the voters know that apathy works both ways.

    • Paul 18.1

      Denise Roche and Marama Davidson were at the march in Auckland.
      Kelsey said shame on Labour for not standing for anything.

      • savenz 18.1.1

        @Paul – good to know – so no Labour then! They’re hopeless! Falling into the Natz hands yet again.

      • Alethios 18.1.2

        The Greens were definitely came out today in Auckland. Plenty of banners and flag waving. Barry Coates was the event MC, while Denise and Marama spoke at the rally after the march.

        Thought it was a great event in all. Great music and positive family friendly atmosphere. We had more along that expected, and had decent coverage on the news.

    • Colonial Viper 18.2

      People want to see the opposition out on the streets for TPP to show they care and are not careerists politicians.

      Little says that the TPPA passes four out of five of Labour’s bottom lines.

      Can’t be that bad according to Labour, can it?

  19. Neil 19

    The biggest problem I see is that the majority of New Zealanders have got their heads in the sand & refuse to see Key & the national party for what they really stand for. A Labour/greens coalition is got to be better than what we have got now.

    • Colonial Viper 19.1

      A bit better than National is not enough to get people to vote for a Labour/Greens government.

    • sabine 19.2

      well according to some here the problem is labour. It is all Labours fault, nothing to do with Shipley (who was PM when I migrated into NZ) before Helen Clark, no it is all Labour fault. Cause labour.

      Thats all they got. Labour does it too, or Labour is worse then. They live in the Past, and can not live with the fact that what was will never come back, and that the most progressive thing in our time that can be done is to preserve what we have, and start the rationing of our finite resources.

      That we need Labour as much as we need the Greens, and NZFirst, and hopefully Mana, ….who cares.

      so go national. cause clearly they are better then any coalition government that includes Labour could be.

      • savenz 19.2.1

        @Sabine I think you might find that it will become irrelevant who the government is as under TPP – disputes will not be decided in NZ courts or by the NZ government whoever that might be.

        As for Labour I think the issue is that Labour needs to concentrate on the HERE and NOW – what are they doing to attract voters?

        Nats have the country fooled partially because they do focus group polls and work out what their voters want. Labour does not do what their voters want, they do what they want and maybe are trying to be like the Natz and pretend they are doing what the voters want, but Labour voters are the academics, teachers and educated people so they can see right through it.

        Some Labour supporters (like yourself) are saying don’t worry about it. Labour are still better than the Natz, but other Labour supporters are saying they want Labour to go back ‘to the past’ (and note Little mentioned that side of Labour a lot in his rousing speech) not neoliberalism. But where is the action from Labour beyond his speech? If Labour do not support the TPP agreement then why were they NOT at the march?

        Labour could please both sides of their voters but for whatever reason do not want to.

        • sabine 19.2.1.1

          I have been saying for a while now that any party is as good as its members. This is valid for National, for the Greens and for Labour.

          I don’t say Labour is better then Natz, i say that any left alliance needs Labour as no other viable third party is yet there that could take its place.
          I don’t say Labour is better than National, i say that the left alliance will be better than any National government.
          As for bashing Labour and crying about what they used to be in the past, the time of my grandparents, it is of no use. I might as well cry about spilled beans. And for many of the very young ones that will vote for the first time in their lives the cries about the past is absolutely meaningless.

          re TPP March: I now that some Labour People were at the march, i was not because I was working. I will ask “my” Labour People – my representative if he was there and if not why not. I can tell you that Phil Twyford, representative for my neck of the woods has had a bill drawn that would ban foreign NoN Resident ownership of property in NZ, for debate in Parliament and I have linked to that. But I understand that for some that is not enough.
          http://campaign.labour.org.nz/foreign_buyers_ban_will_achieve_what_govt_failed_to

          Am I happy with all that Labour does, no. Do I think that Labour can do better and must, yes. Will I ask them to do better, yes. Will I vote for them the next election, in absence of a better choice yes. And I have voted for the Greens and the socialists in the past.

          But whether we like it or not, we need them, and the greens, and mana (with or without internet ). We need all of them.

          So for the Green Member work to get them elected, for Mana, work to get them elected, for Labour work to get them elected.

          That is my point, and I as a member of the labour party will do precisely that. Point out to all the Non voters that I know, that if they don’t like Labour, go vote Green, vote Mana, vote NZF, heck vote legalise marijuana Aotearoa. Anything is better then not voting. And most likely i will vote for Labour despite all their short comings as the alternative is to bleak to contemplate.

          • savenz 19.2.1.1.1

            @ Sabine regarding Phil Twyford’s bill drawn that would ban foreign NoN Resident ownership of property in NZ, for debate in Parliament a

            The ban on non resident buyers does not take into account of how easy it is to gain residency here, all you have to do is do a course here, have a relative here, have some money, be a chef and so forth. 59,500 migrants came into NZ this year (source http://www.enz.org/migrants.html).

            2015 +59,600
            2014 +41,000
            2013 +10,600
            2012 -3,800

            and where they came from.

            India 12,600
            China 8,200
            Philippines 4,500
            United Kingdom 4,000
            Germany 2,800

            That’s a lot of houses gone to migrants, when we already have a shortage. And I think you can still gain residency by buying up property in the investor category – go figure that as an immigration policy to help stem demand!

            Also Labour’s policy does not ban non residents from buying land, just existing residential stock. From what I can see non residents can still speculate as much as they like on developing property here.

            (At least that is my reading of it, please point out if I am wrong).

            • sabine 19.2.1.1.1.1

              I don’t want to prevent people from migrating here, I don’t want to prevent people who have migrated here from buying a house or land to do what they want to do with it.

              I however would like to prevent “investment companies” as hedgefunds to buy up property by the hundreds like they do in the States, i would like to prevent land banking/and house stock piling by ‘developpers’ and speculators’ leaving them empty until such a time that the price is right.

              There are some who will find fault with everything that Labour does, but for me it is simple. Give them love when they do a good thing, and give them hell when no.
              This bill is a good start. That is all it is. A start. But i understand if it is not good enough, not going far enough and what not. As I said, there are various other parties on the left and they all need supporters and voters.

              • The Chairman

                How are voters expected to know if the policy is merely a start in a certain direction or Labour’s end solution?

                If it’s an end solution, then clearly it doesn’t go far enough, thus shouldn’t we be giving them hell?

              • savenz

                Well I think the government needs to be more discerning who is migrating here and what they have to offer this country and are they actually interested in staying here, or is it a way to get an NZ passport and go off to Australia (which Australia are getting sick of I’m sure).

                It is a huge burden on NZ housing, health, welfare, infrastructure, jobs and so forth to have 59,000 people migrating here, plus there are various criteria so that once one person has residency the rest of the family are often able to get in.

                I have no problem with refugees who genuinely need help and no problem with a sustainable level of migration with real skills, but that is not what our government policy is doing.

                In Australia to get citizenship the migrant needed to start a business, have a profit of over $50k per year and employ 2 Australians workers. That seems a lot more of a system to attract genuine migrants than in NZ where the migrants I know are all on benefits with the rest of the family working in OZ. (Even migrants can’t survive on NZ wages) or in property, or loss making businesses.

            • red-blooded 19.2.1.1.1.2

              So, are you anti-immigration, then? And if so, how does that fit with a Left view of the world?

  20. millsy 20

    Finally. Someone on here who sees what I see.

    These polls have been like this for the past decade. It isnt a new thing.

  21. John Schmidt 21

    I am a swinging voter. Like it or not it’s people like me who decides who governs. I was a great supporter if Clark & Cullen but the campaign for a 3rd term came crashing down when the light bulb shower head amnd talk of Jurrasic Park became an issue of the state extending it’s grip on the lives of the citizens a bit to far so they lost my vote and those of other swinging voters. Since then I have seen nothing in Labour that would attract my swinging vote and I assume the same for other swinging voters going by the poles. To be frank the thought of a Labour government with the Greens simply scares me. Clark being able to govern without the Greens was a reason for my support. If Labour could find a leader in the vain of Clark and a credible finance person and are able to pole such that Green support is not required then Labour has a chance of attracting us swing voters who again I emphasis and repeat are the people who decide who governs.

    • ropata 21.1

      shudder at the thought.
      it’s true there is a huge army of these dimbulbs who blindly follow where FJK leads

    • DS 21.2

      You think a government regulating light bulbs is beyond the pale, but are seemingly quite happy with a government that spies on its opponents? Lovely priorities.

    • savenz 21.3

      @John Schmidt – Yes I can see why you vote National prefer the idea of government who feel ok with sending officials into your bank details no questions asked, who you sat next to on the plane, an SIS searching your house with no warrant for 24 hours, cancelling your passport if they feel like it. Yes we are SO much better with National wanting state surveillance – fine by people like you as well as selling off the country probably to real money launderers and Terrorists. Far better to have that than the horror of your personal rights to an incandescant lightbulb. Yes saving the planet is so scary too by voting Green – some corporation might lose some profit by not being allowed to pollute the ocean next to where you live.

      However highly likely your discourse is yet another troll carefully placed, which the Labs eagerly sip up.

    • sabine 21.4

      You had me at :The greens scare me.

      i really sometimes wonder why they heck the people that vote national are so easily scared.

      • ropata 21.4.1

        fear and greed and authoritarian leadership
        appeals to the stupid and selfish segments of the electorate

      • One Anonymous Bloke 21.4.2

        Grossly enlarged amygdala?

      • gsays 21.4.3

        hi sabine,
        “i really sometimes wonder why they heck the people that vote national are so easily scared.”

        i would suggest that a big, regular diet of television, a newspaper subscription and little or no meaningful contact with the community they live in.

        “Yes I remember the time in Oklahoma
        you tried to blame an Arab
        but the whitey was the bomber
        you be jumpin’ to conclusions
        I think you spent your whole life
        watchin’ cable in seclusion
        illusions ’bout what’s outside your door
        one nigga two nigga three nigga four
        robbing every house and every liquor store”

        michael franti-chocolate super highway.

    • DoublePlusGood 21.5

      And yet, there’s no logical reason for you to be scared of the Greens.

  22. DS 22

    To be horribly honest, I think the next election is out of our hands. It simply depends on what happens to the international economy between now and then.

    John Key, of course, has the immense structural advantages of name recognition, well-funded focus groups, and an overtly biased media (let’s face it, a Labour Government faced with Dirty Politics would have crumbled amid wall-to-wall Stasi comparisons). It also remains a complete mystery to me (and likely many others) how half the country can support a lying sociopath with no policies beyond screwing people over. But a recession between now and 2017? Bye, bye, John.

  23. Peter 23

    If Canada is the example, electoral charisma is what is required to turn the electorate around. Previous NZ examples include Key, Lange, Kirk …..?

  24. Mike the Savage One 24

    Stockholm Syndrome and non existing investigative “journalism”:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome

    There is no other explanation, I think.

  25. Thinker 25

    i think one issue is that people still see NZs economy being in a fragile position.

    So some people might see socially beneficial policies in a bad way because they believe they would be unaffordable for the country. Nice to have, but how would we pay for them?

    I think when new policies or ideas are promoted they must be accompanied by a well thought out explanation of how the country can afford it, economically, so that people see them as more than just good ideas.

    • sabine 25.1

      so we can have Flag changes, new money, new vehicles for a fleet, kick arse TV screens and hair-dryers in he Offices of the new building for the Ministry of Business and Farts …..errr Innovations, but we can’t afford social housing? We can’t afford to feed the kids in schools to assure all of them are fed – and this would be an investment into our future, considering that these will be our future overlords.
      Really, you expect costing from National?

    • Lara 25.2

      That’s exactly what the Greens did last election. Had their economic policy costed independently. And published it.

      I don’t think voters give a damn actually. As DS says above I think it’s more a function of the economy.

      If the economy is doing well enough, at least not tanking, whoever is in will be reelected. But if the economy is tanking voters want change.

  26. The Chairman 26

    Good post CV

    It’s clear constructive criticism doesn’t sit well with a number here, but it’s very much required.

    Unfortunately, highlighting Labour’s flaws attracts the shooting of the messenger, stay strong and don’t let them rile you.

    Labour are struggling to get traction. And we’ve both heard the line (it’s only early in the election cycle, give them time) before.

    Left wing supporters I associate with feel largely the same way as you. They don’t want a National lite, yet that’s what they see Labour offering them. Thus, are not inspired or impressed.

    Labour needs to be aware of this and turn it around, otherwise they’ll spend another term in opposition scratching their heads and asking why?

    The impression I (and a number of others) get from Labour is they keep trying to pull the wool, largely paying lip service to the left, but backing National when it comes to the crunch. Their handling of the TPP has been another example of this.

    In my view, you are largely telling it how it is and some in Labour just don’t want to hear it, but they need too.

    • Lara 26.1

      ^^This.

    • Colonial Viper 26.2

      Cheers, thats much appreciated. One year ago LAB +GR fell well under 40% in the poll which counted. In the middle of a venal, visionless third term government on its last legs, LAB + GR should be more or less neck and neck with the NATs.

      But they are long way from it. Why? I start with this assumption which in some ways mirrors your comment: Kiwis are way smarter and more perceptive than the Thorndon Bubble set think they are, and the Thorndon Bubble set ain’t anywhere as on to it or connected to mainstream NZ as they like to appear to be.

  27. scotty 27

    So if 10 people are polled .
    2 support National , 1 supports Labour , and 7 don’t know.
    Herald headline reads :
    National at 66% could govern alone.
    Is the framing of polls in percentages bogus?
    Including the number of undecideds in poll results should be mandatory .
    Surely the number of those who intend to vote – but are undecided , is critical -if polls are to be of any value at all – brainwashing excepted.

  28. Lara 28

    I strongly suspect we’ll be in recession by 2017.

    The Chinese stock market bubble has burst. The markets in the US have turned and Europe is a mess. It will eventually affect us in NZ. Stock markets tend to lead the business cycle.

    Governments tend to change when the economy isn’t doing well. When the economy is doing well people tend to vote for whoever is in power.

    That’s the only hope really for the left. Not a good one, but inevitable. Just the timing is up for question in the case of NZ.

    My two cents worth anyway.

    • Colonial Viper 28.1

      yes, we will be in deep economic trouble by 2017. Key will then simply make the point that National are the safe steady pair of hands who brought NZ safe and sound through the GFC, and that Little and Robertson have no financial or economic track record and neither have even been junior ministers entrusted with even the most minor portfolios.

      Who will Kiwis vote for?

  29. Michael 29

    And what about the One News poll from early in October that showed 52% of voters wanting an alternative to National-led governance? (LAB+GRN+NZF)

    I also have issues with the way Roy Morgan does their polls. Could a poll taken over a *2-week* period really be that accurate? Public opinion can fluctuate a lot in 2 weeks.

    Also, I don’t know why becoming like Corbyn-led Labour would help NZ Labour. New Zealand has MMP. There’s no need for the main centre-left party to be left-wing. Because a new party can just take left wing votes (like the Greens). Moving left won’t deliver a progressive government. Labour might see a bump in the polls from taking votes off the Greens, but the share of votes for the left will stay the same. In MMP, where we need *coalition* government (which will probably be between left wing, centre left, and centre parties) – you have to look at the total share of votes on the left. Not just Labour’s.

    Of course, Labour shouldn’t abandon its principles. It should be a principed party. But as the major party that will lead a government, it simply *has to* attract National voters. National appears centrist right now. They are taking the median voter. How can Labour win in 2017 without taking any votes off National?

    • Colonial Viper 29.1

      thanks for making the case for a Blairite Third Way pro capitalist Labour Party perpetually in National’s shadows.

      By the way the first part of your comment set the casevfor compromising Left wing principles while the second part of your comment tried to paper over that with talk of being principled.

      You can’t screw around town and preach principles at the same time and be taken seriously, you know.

      • Michael 29.1.1

        Can you at least explain why moving from the centre-left to a left-wing position will improve the overall vote share of Labour+Green+NZF?

        • Colonial Viper 29.1.1.1

          simple. Because NZ has had enough of neoliberal bullshit and of Tory Labour strategies that you are fond of.

          • Michael 29.1.1.1.1

            I don’t support third way policies.

            But then why don’t they vote for the Greens, Mana, or NZF if they don’t like Labour’s policies? Why are they voting for National if there are parties to the left of Labour that they can vote for?

            • The Chairman 29.1.1.1.1.1

              I’ll answer that question for you Michael.

              First off, voters generally want their vote to count. Smaller third parties don’t generally win elections, thus struggle for support.

              Secondly, while NZ First are left of Labour in a number of areas, there is no guarantee they’ll support Labour into Government when it comes to the crunch.

              Thirdly, all three require a main parity’s support and it’s the main that will dominate the political direction. Therefore, when Labour offer little difference, a number in the left just don’t see the point, hence the large number that don’t vote.

              Additionally, the more Labour remain in the centre, the less they align with their potential coalition partners, further endorsing the image of the left rowing in different directions.

  30. red-blooded 30

    A good question, Michael.

    And good luck to the British LP; I’d say they probably need it. Corbyn may be a lovely guy, but usually there’s a reason why a long-term MP as never made it past the back benches.

    • Colonial Viper 30.1

      indeed: he didn’t play the political parlour games required to suck up and compromise to the establishment power players.

      • red-blooded 30.1.1

        Another way of putting that being, he was unrealistic, not a team player…

        I don’t know the guy, and neither do you. It seems to me that if he was ready to give his vote to his party (which he was), then he was already “compromising to the establishment power players”. As a back-bench MP, though, he had bugger-all influence (ie opportunity to truly represent his constituents or values) and he seems to have stuck around in that situation for a very long time. He’s now taken on leadership of a deeply divided parliamentary party with no meaningful leadership experience. He had the lowest number of nominations from his fellow MPs and originally seemed to have no intention of contesting the leaderships seriously, stating that he was running to give a voice to the wider membership and to broaden the debate.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn#Leadership_election

        At least Andrew Little has been Party Chair and has successfully led a complex organisation (the EPMU).

        As I said, good luck to Corbyn (that’s a genuine comment). I have to admit that I won’t be surprised if he runs out of momentum, though. It’s one thing to convince the Party faithful, another to win the trust of the wider electorate and (if that barrier is crossed) yet another to actually pull the policy and the people together and govern effectively.

  31. Ad 31

    I’m not too worried.

    Mickey Savage’s point about “good things take time” needs a fraction unpacking.
    – Labour does not now have visible internal fights that are leaked to the media.
    – Labour does not have a caucus that is obviously divided and attacks its leaders from within.
    – Labour has finished with its new leadership-choosing process for a while.
    – Labour now has a leader that can deliver a coherent speech.
    – Labour actually has MPs who can sustain reasonable headlines.
    – Labour can hold a conference in which the Members and MPs leave encouraged.

    None of the above has happened since 2008.
    The above won’t make much positive difference in the polls. But Little had to stabilize his caucus, and his membership, and his media, and his party machinery, and his staff, etc … all before he could really start to campaign to improve the polls.

    I don’t accept that any international reform movement is necessarily relevant to Labour’s politics here. It’s possible – but our own politics has evolved to where it is now for a reason.

    I also think too many idealistic activists forget the purpose of MMP is to make it very very hard for a further wave of reform the likes of 1984-1989 close to impossible. Either left or right. We don’t need further massive change in order to succeed.

    I’m also pretty confident that people will tire of Key pretty quickly. The tide ran out on Clark surprisingly quickly when it started to run.

  32. McFlock 32

    National is doing better now than back at the end of 2013 (when Cunliffe had just been elected Leader). Labour is bouncing around between 25% and 30%.

    Well, the scale is a bit wonky, but when you put your finger on the result of the last election, one party slides down before the election and slides up after the election, and another party has much lower angle on the trend.

    But I guess people see what they want to see.

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