Seat watch – Ohariu

24 comments on “Seat watch – Ohariu ”

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1. karol 1

   20 September 2014 at 7:50 pm

   Micky, why do you say it’s going well for Virginia? – she’s losing.
   • sockpuppet 1.1

     20 September 2014 at 8:01 pm

     [deleted]

     [lprent: 2 week ban as a gentle warning. ]
     • weka 1.1.1

       20 September 2014 at 8:05 pm

       You do know Lynn is moderating tonight. Are you doing a self-martyr run?
2. Lanthanide 2

   20 September 2014 at 7:58 pm

   Peter Dunne is going to be an overhang seat this rate. 0.19% of the vote as of this comment, and has been at that level for a while now. ALCP is on 0.26% for comparison.
   • Lanthanide 2.1

     20 September 2014 at 8:29 pm

     Ban1080 has almost overtaken UF party vote: 0.18% to 0.19%

     ALCP leaving UF in the dust with 0.26%
     • Lanthanide 2.1.1

       20 September 2014 at 8:44 pm

       Ban1080 is 1 vote behind UF on 0.20%. ALCP streaking ahead to 0.30%.

       Edit: Now 0.21% for Ban1080, 0.20% for UF!
3. weka 3

   20 September 2014 at 8:01 pm

   Fucking Green Party. Nice to see the Nat voters are stupid too though.
4. Ants 4

   20 September 2014 at 8:04 pm

   Thanks, any updates Greg?
   • weka 4.1

     20 September 2014 at 8:47 pm

     http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electorate-36.html
5. weka 5

   20 September 2014 at 8:45 pm

   Lamia ‏@LI_politico 8 mins
   Ohariu
   Peter Dunne 4557
   Virginia Andersen 4012 (-545)
   Green candidate 782
   #headdesk
   #decision14

   Lamia ‏@LI_politico 7 mins
   Once again…. MMP? Anyone? Seriously I can’t even.

   https://twitter.com/LI_politico/status/513245192376569857
   • Rosie 5.1

     20 September 2014 at 9:33 pm

     I don’t effing believe this. WTF is wrong with people giving their electorate to vote to Green when they know how critical is that we vote Ginny in and ditch Dunney. Or do they not get MMP? “Seriously I can’t even”. Never a truer word said.

     Just got back home now and missed most of the election so far due to social deafness and headache and a sicker feeling than I anticipated I’d have tonight. Having a really hard time comprehending WTF is wrong our country at the moment with the results as they are so far.

     Better head into the lounge and get my head around everything……
     • yeshe 5.1.1

       20 September 2014 at 9:57 pm

       with u rosie .. just too depressing for words.
     • shona 5.1.2

       20 September 2014 at 9:57 pm

       It’s so difficult to comprehend Rosie and it is beyond reasoning. Suffice to say propaganda works best on a an unthinking zombie population.The vast majority of people still listen to radio, followed up by TV then newspapers. They really are that out of touch. I am nearly 60 and I talk to many young people who don’t even know the need for encryption let alone what programs to use. New Zealanders are in the majority pretty fucking thick. It’s hard to take on board but at this stage in life it is something I accepted many years ago. Oh and I have always regretted coming back here to raise a family. If you are young and unencumbered get the hell out and don’t come back.
       • Rosie 5.1.2.1

         20 September 2014 at 10:45 pm

         Kia Ora yeshe and shona.

         Yes, I’m having a major comprehension issue, it just won’t go away and I’m in a state of confusion It is beyond reasoning shona, but I believe you are right when talk about a zombie population and how out of touch people are. And if anything has proven how “pretty fucking thick” we are, it is tonight.

         The last three years. Asset sales, mass surveillance, a level of corruption and deceit never seen before in NZ politics (ala Dirty Politics) Increasing poverty, increasing inequality, affordable housing less and less available, third world diseases in our most impoverished communities and half the voting population have said yes to that.

         We have said yes to mass surveillance which means we have essentially said yes to a fascist state. I just can’t get my head around that.

         And seeing as we’re on the Ohariu post. Dunne still ahead by approx 1000. He won in 2011 by 1392. Labour have worked so hard here and we have such a great candidate who would be so good for the electorate, yet that Laphraoig swilling cigar smoking self serving sod is still winning. So much work has gone into this electorate and yet he just sits back and has an easy ride.

         I can’t bear to watch that goose Key and his victory speech tonight. Off to bed with some panadeine.

         Big ups to all the Left volunteers that worked so hard all around the country You did the right thing by getting involved. Your country let you down.
         • weka 5.1.2.1.1

           21 September 2014 at 12:01 am

           Big hugs Rosie. We will regroup when the time is right. Thanks so much for all your hard work.
         • locus 5.1.2.1.2

           21 September 2014 at 12:05 am

           +1
           i really can’t comprehend how people decided to vote for such a hollow and unprincipled person

           I fear NZ’s going to get a lot worse before it gets any better

           But on the positive side, at least a third of New Zealanders do know what’s right, and we’ve got to keep on stepping up – tomorrow’s another day

           Cunliffe will eventually get the chance to lead NZ out of this mess and I’m sure will be a very good PM
6. tc 6

   20 September 2014 at 10:20 pm

   The stupid, it hurts…..FFS.
7. RedBaronCV 7

   20 September 2014 at 11:53 pm

   And I have never seen the Greens ask for a candidtae vote in Ohariu.
   • weka 7.1

     21 September 2014 at 12:00 am

     Doesn’t matter. Too many people don’t understand MMP and tactical voting, so the GP having a candidate there as a way of getting the party vote is always going to get some electorate votes as well. There will also be GP voters who don’t pay any attention to the election campaign and just give the GP two ticks. The only way for the GP to avoid this is to either not stand in taht seat, or to actively tell people to not vote for their candidate. I’m guessing that the GP are well aware of these issues, and decided that the risk was worth it to increase their party vote.
     • Lisa Woodley 7.1.1

       27 September 2014 at 7:23 am

       I can confirm that the GP candidate was actively telling people that he only wished for the party vote. This was emphasised through newspaper articles and candidate meetings. So it wasn’t through lack of trying 🙂
8. Graeme 8

   21 September 2014 at 12:46 am

   Apathy was the winner on the day in Ohariu………an astonishingly low turnout for Ohariu was the most defining feature of tonight’s election result.
   The combined votes of national candidate and Peter Dunne combined had been dropping steadily (1000 voted each election) for 3 elections, to a combined total of 21000 in 2011. – but this year it plummeted by a further 3500 votes (before specials are counted), and Peter Dunne still won. Such a drop in the “right” vote is astonishing.
   All credit to Nationals policy of running an “invisible” candidate. Brett Hudsons ability to poll 1500 votes less than Katrina Shanks did in 2011 was undoubtedly the reason Peter Dunne retained his seat. With a phenomenally high list ranking for a relative newcomer, Brett was very well rewarded for keeping quiet and seeking a “Party vote only” for National.
   There is no point in criticising the 2200 simpletons who failed to recognise their vote for Tane Woodlet would deny Ginny & the left the Ohariu seat – it has allways been thus. On the plus side, there were 3000 others who did split their green vote (“correctly”), in favour of Ginny Anderson: Thats all you can expect from people who are not politically engaged. Unless someone takes the time to knock on 20000 doors and explain personally to each one of those 2200 why they are so deluded, that wont change.
   But the fact that labour still lost is due in no small part to the weather: That really is the only explaination. In the last three elections, the total electorate votes cast in Ohariu has been between tightly clustered within 400 votes, with a minimum of 37585 (in 2005) and 37 996 (in 2011) . The Turnout (before special votes) for 2014 is about 33 500. Notwithstanding specials, this is more than a four thousand vote slump on the turnout of the last four years, an unprecedented drop in turnout……
   With a very creditable effort cutting Peter Dunnes majority to under 1000 votes, Ginny Anderson has proven herself as a most “winnable” Labour candidate for Ohariu, coming from being utterly unknown to anyone in the electorate just four months agob (!!!!!). Anyone seeing her at a town hall meeting could see she has it all over Peter Dunne, who seems more out of touch every term….
   Where does the blame lie for labour loosing the most winnable seat (for them) in the country, and potentially one of the most important? Not at the feet of the Labour machine on the ground (phenomenal, as ever), but from Labour head Office, for not investing more effort in backing a great candidate in a critical seat MUCH more than they did.
   Ginny was busy with more important things earlier in 2014, (like giving birth!). But in an ideal world, she would have declared her candidacy in January and spent the next 6 month pressing the flesh with regular appearances from Cunliffe & other Labour luminaries on the streets & in the community halls of Ohariu, (just 10 minutes drive from the Beehive, but sadly too far for some of those Old labour hands to make the effort…).
   Had labour committed more resources, earlier, to Ohariu, at least one thousand more potential labour voters would easily have gone out into the rain today, and Peter Dunnes support for a national led Government would be consigned to the history books – and Ohariu would have a bight, exciting and capable young MP to kick Wellington’s staid old labour MP ranks out of their malaise….
   As an “MP in waiting for Ohariu” the worst thing Labour could do now is switch horses: If they bring in Justin Lester, Ginny will loose the chance to build her profile, and the “apparent” advantage the right have could evaporate if Peter Dunne resigns, or if national either fail to list a candidate (either strategy would still see national or Dunne win next time, regardless of the candidate).
   • weka 8.1

     21 September 2014 at 10:20 am

     If the GP had chosen to not stand in Ōhāriu, Dunne would be gone and Anderson would be in. Pretty simple. They made this choice with other electorates.
     • karol 8.1.1

       21 September 2014 at 10:26 am

       Are you sure it was a choice with other electorates, and not just a case of not having the person or resources to run candidates in some electorates?
       • weka 8.1.1.1

         21 September 2014 at 11:06 am

         probably both, but it seems likely to me that the TTT one was intentional. But even if I’m wrong about that, the GP still need to rethink this strategy of putting up candidates in marginal seats as a way of increasing their party vote. It could have been worse this time (it could have cost us the election), but ousting Dunne would have been a very good thing for the left.

         Someone commented on twitter last night that the left still want everyone to play the game with integrity and they’re getting screwed because of it (my paraphrasing). Am not suggesting we go dirty politics, but we need to rethink this idea of working MMP as we want it instead of as it is now vis a vis the rules.

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