- Date published:
10:30 am, June 3rd, 2013 - 55 comments
Categories: act, maori party, national, united future - Tags: unstable
National Party civil war has broken out in to the to open.
United Future no longer exists.
ACT is one court decision away from losing its only MP.
Maori Party leadership uncertainty part of their long slow decline.
No use for a Stable Government if the horse has bolted?
Mr Key is relaxed about it all as he is busy organising the next New Year’s Honours List.
Maybe it is a clever Joyce ploy to hold an early election but avoiding the blame for its calling.
Maybe all is sweetness and light and it is all just a Media beat-up?
Maybe it is timely for the Labour Leadership to come out guns blazing.
A week is a long time….
And that is why the MMP threshold should be raised to 10%
😆 Like UF, MP and ACT don’t find 5% an insurmountable hurdle.
Are you a bit confused, Brett? Your gripe involves coat-tailing and the Māori seats, not the MMP threshold.
loz Brett, before you pretend to misunderstand O.A.K.’s comment, none of the parties mentioned in the post are affected by the threshold. None of them even have list MPs.
(Except National but I think they could manage 10%, don’t you?)
Please, Brett, go on, I’m dying to know how you think your comment makes any sense.
It makes sense because the Greens.
I think the unspoken part of Brett’s comment is simply “the threshold should be raised to 10% and unless you get 10% party vote then any electorates you won should go to the 2nd-place getter”.
Point of order Mr Speaker. If you interpret the Member’s idiot statements for him, then we have no way of holding him to account for them.
Soz. I guess as a consolation, my interpretation is still asinine.
😀 indeed it is
Its going to be a long 17 months for National. They are rolling through a minefield of their own making.
On one hand, it’ll be sad to wave goodbye to the aptly named NUFACT brand and its leader JOKE (deputy BILE) but with GUFL and GNATS completely out of the question, MANGRL led by DASH and RUNO (with deputies HOME) has a nice gritty, gender-inclusive ring to it…..
You guys… 😀
This civil war in National thing you guys are pushing really isn’t going to fly.
There’s nothing here and all it does is high light the bullshit and back room nonsense that’s going on in labour, you can’t distract and cover your own shit by trying to project labours problems onto National.
One thing I have noticed, when you guys are accusing National of something 99 out of 100, the left are doing or have been doing the same thing but about 50 x worse.
Speaking of desperate distraction tactics 😉
“One thing I have noticed, when you guys are accusing National of something 99 out of 100, the left are doing or have been doing the same thing but about 50 x worse.”
If this has happened 99 out of the 100 times National has been accused of something on this website, I’m sure you’ll be able to find 4 or 5 examples very quickly. So chop chop, get to it, otherwise we’ll just treat your post for what it is: a fantasy.
1. Civil war
Everyone knows that labour is coming apart at the seams, Shearer is a dead man walking.
If by some miracle the left gets up and wins the next election, Shear will be gone within six months and replaced by some other factional head.
Key has nothing to worry about then, eh?
If things carry on the way they are, I don’t think he does.
Have you noticed after he gave the media a rocket and said he’ll only speak to the media on his terms, they’ve really dialed it back.
Less stories you see about Key in the media, the greater chance of National getting a third term and that’s got nothing to do with Key fucking up, it’s to do with people thinking politicians are arseholes.
Less you hear about them the better, unfortunately this strategy only works for the incumbent.
Big risk is that John Key loses(or has already lost) interest in the job. My guess is what he aspires to is to replace Lockwood Smith as High Commissioner to London. He seemed to relish the atmosphere at the royal wedding, one thing is certain he definetly doesn’t want to be is Leader of the Opposition. As Rob Muldoon observed many years ago, in politics never forget your opponents sit opposite you, your real enemies sit beside you
Not yet., He wants another term and then will stand down.
To me Key considers the role of prime minister to that of a CEO, a good CEO knows when to move on and let some one fresh have a go.
I’d say after nine years he’d have achieved what he’d want to.
Key isn’t a career politician he backs himself far to much to spend his life sucking of the taxpayers tit.
funnily enough he’s beginning to remind me of clark in about ’07/8.
Heart not in it any more. If he wins in 2014 I’d be surprised if he stays the full term. But I don’t think he’ll win.
You don’t think he has a plan or a vision for NZ.
I don’t think he turns up to parliament just to eat his lunch.
Do you mean the vision as per the NZ Herald this weekend . . .
Overall, the work needed to be guided by a long-term strategy which would see a smaller government which was focused on “changing education, increasing mining’s contribution to GDP and making property development easier”.
I think he had not so much a “plan” as a “bucket list and a sense of entitlement”, and maybe one or two objectives for corporate wealth.
I’m damned sure he never had any vision for NZ. But my impression at the moment is that he’s no longer interested in the shiny baubles – just hanging out for the gong, now.
Couple of things there BM.
He’s obsessed with measuring himself against former PMs, especially Clark. She won three general elections. If he doesn’t win the next one, he’ll think he’s failed.
But a third term? He couldn’t care less. As long as he wins three elections he can piss off any time he likes and in his mind it’ll be his choice so he still counts the win.
Thing is, it won’t be his choice. There are too many others who need him to win the election and then get out of the way, and they’ve waited long enough. He goes in the first year whether he wants to or not.
Also, he’s been on one tit or other all his life. He’s never produced anything, never employed himself, never run a business of any sort. He’s sponging off us right now but he’s been a sponge, a parasite and a leech all his life as far as I can tell
Their performance in the polls has been dialled back, that’s for damned sure.
Have you noticed after he gave the media a rocket and said he’ll only speak to the media on his terms, they’ve really dialed it back.
No, I haven’t noticed a difference. The media have been consistently licking Key’s arse since 2007.
So that’s 1 example, just another 3 or 4 required!
Also, it’s exceptionally unlikely that Shearer would be replaced within 6 months of winning the election.
“This civil war in National thing you guys are pushing really isn’t going to fly.”
That who’s pushing, BM? It’s National doing the leaking, most likely from the very top.
They have to try and fabricate something, John keys just to damn good.The real problem is just around the corner when shearer finally gets rolled,there will be full on war in labour.Popularity and unity will dive and may never come back, the greens will be the only ones left.Some on here want this you can tell.
“John keys just to damn good”
lol @ farmboy but obviously won’t hear the laughter while head is up cows ass.
Refer to preferred p.m poll.You cant hear the laughter because the majority are laughing at you,just like they do at norman and the greens.Its going to be a whitewash and you know it.
Expecting Key to rule out working with NZ First again any day now due to “whitewash” prediction.
Come on Rob, it is rather exaggerated to call the internal rivalries amongst some fractions and especially a few senior MPs and ministers within National a “civil war”. I wish it was. Better stick to more objective assessments. But truly, this government was considered somewhat “unstable” due to only having a one seat majority from the start.
Yet they managed to hang on, and they have pushed through their regime ruthlessly, by ignoring all criticism, by hiding the truth, by being convenient with the truth, by suffering voluntary, adopted amnesia, by buying allegiance from Dodgy Banksy (the plaintiff before court in a matter we all know about), same as increasingly dodgy “Done Peter” from “Ohairyooh”.
I am keen to hear and see what Winston is supposed to have up his sleeve, and what is supposed to be raised in Parliament tomorrow, or at least this week.
Key will be able to rely on the outside “stability” still offered by most of their supporters, by the strong big business lobby, by the loyal right wing blog fan clubs, by the single sided mainstream media (most of them), by a poorly informed wider electorate, who are worried and scared by horror scare tactics about a kind of “socialist take-over” “conspired by Greens, who are seizing on a supposedly already “leftist” Labour Party, and so forth. The “Devil Beast” and “far left” are the catch calls.
That “stability” of “reliable outside factors” is keeping Key and his government alive, so far that is.
I am most worried about the preparedness of the Greens and especially Labour, to successfully, convincingly fight an early election campaign, which may not be so out of the unexpected now. With Shearer at the helm, Key is likely to sweep into power with a majority not needing Banks or whosoever may be there to “rescue” them in need of short votes.
Do not county your bets to pay off too soon, Labour is not ready for an election, and we know why! Shearer is not going to deliver in debates, speeches and in front of media. Game lost if you go into an election now, with him there.
That is apart from having a too split, weak caucus and poorly advised other party leadership behind it all.
Now that United Future does not exist (for now) and Peter Dunne is therefore an Independent MP, will Mr Dunne be classed as a Waka Jumper?
How about sunken waka refugee.
The unstable elementse were nevere stronge.
But more importantly how much does such instability reflect a more extreming of public views and a divergence of desire?
Perhaps the aracb spring will spread from those places of bearded people, such as Tunisia and Turkey, to those places of other bearded people, such as Frankenfurt and France? Or Nicosia and New Zealand?
National don’t need act or united.
You do know we operate in an MMP ‘environment’…. or is it reality generally you continue to have difficulty with?
Stability is in large part about credibility…….political or otherwise. National, Act, United and the Maori Party are all engaged in a race to the ‘bottom’ of the credibility’ stakes… my bet is they will all confirm their loser status (sooner rather than later), with or without Lusk.
National only needs a 5% coalition party now. Labour needs their funders and policy makers greens to get to 44%. then still short so they have to into bed with Winnie…yep that is as stable as liquidfaction
“National only needs a 5% coalition party now”
And that party is?
In like two polls, and it isn’t even election year. I would love to say on account of a poll that Labour and the Greens are going to win; but you don’t know till the few weeks or months before the election what people really think. Its rather silly to say John Key will get back in, when there is no evidence to support that claim beyond two polls; when Roy Morgan says the opposite i.e. that Labour and the Greens will win next election.
Look..here’s the go. Greens announce today the would work with Winnie. That’s 15 plus 7. Block vote with labour. They say David we want abc now or no deal. Labour agrees. Once on the benches they crush the weak labour MPs. Unions get isolated and detach and set minority small party like Maori. 20% of support gone but they are now 35% and able to mount as a serious no 2 party. Winnie retires with a knighthood and NZ first members stay with greens.
Playing out in front of your eyes
That’s spectacular imagination you’re showing there.
Your fantasy relies on NZ1 having a similar support demographic to the Greens. Not to mention, oh, everything else.
You’re an idiot McFlock.
For one thing, for all Turei’s accusations of Winston Peters being a racist, the immigration policy for both the Greens and NZF are actually not incompatible in their focus on integration, revision of immigration policy, employment protection and concern for the interests of the tangata whenua :
Both the Greens and NZF are pro economic nationalism:
The education policies of the two parties are virtually identical –
“A well-educated population is vital for the social, cultural, environmental and economic wellbeing of Aotearoa New Zealand.
We believe that access to tertiary education is primarily a public good, as well as a significant economic investment.”
“Money spent on education will be treated as an investment, not as expenditure. Educational advancement is both in the national and in the individual interest. Educational investment is critical for economic and social recovery.”
There are many other commonalities in social policy, and this is NZF’s environment policy:
“Wise Governments view the preservation and enhancement of the environment as sound economics. All environmental policies will be proactive with a view to creating employment and sustainable wealth whilst improving one of our few competitive advantages.”
Both parties are also anti-asset stripping and have vowed to buy back state assets, and bot parties are deeply suspicious of the TPPA.
partial commonalities, yes. But so similar as to allow NZ1 mps transfer over to the Greens as a matter of course, rather than the nats (especially if they believe the “moderate Key vs lusk” line) or soft-labour or just disappearing from politics?
I can see it now: Turei as co-leader with Richard Prosser. Riiiiight.
No more absurd than National and the Maori Party – Turei has said that they could work with NZF, and partial commonalities are all that Labour and the Greens have in the first place. If anything, on a number of points NZF and the greens are closer together than Greens and Labour.
There are light years between being able to work with another party on common issues – which the greens are adept at – and the greens being a natural home for the NZ1 membership when winnie retires.
Are you trying to say the Labour, Winny, Mana, Green cluster fuck is stable? lol
I could be way off here, but I think what he’s trying to say is that the National Party civil war has broken out in to the to open, United Future no longer exists, ACT is one court decision away from losing its only MP, and the Maori Party’s leadership uncertainty is part of their long slow decline.
It’s just a hunch but that’s my interpretation. I reckon it’s a hell of a lot closer than yours.
Mana? Are you out of your mind? Of course not Mana. Winny is an experienced professional politician – he could accomodate the Greens if it was pragmatic to do so, and vicer versa. Mana are a bunch of ferals, drop outs and cast offs that none of the other parties want anything to do with.